WEBVTT 00:00:00.000 --> 00:00:02.620 Welcome back to The Deep Dive. It is February 00:00:02.620 --> 00:00:06.799 1st, 2026. Hey there! If you spent any time looking 00:00:06.799 --> 00:00:09.320 at the headlines this morning, you might be feeling 00:00:09.320 --> 00:00:12.910 a distinctive sense of, uh... Oh, absolutely. 00:00:13.089 --> 00:00:15.410 It's incredibly disjointed. It is. We are looking 00:00:15.410 --> 00:00:18.870 at a stack of sources today that feels like it 00:00:18.870 --> 00:00:21.390 belongs to three or four different realities. 00:00:21.469 --> 00:00:24.469 Oh, sure. On one side, we have this massive, 00:00:24.850 --> 00:00:27.269 gritty document dump from the Justice Department. 00:00:27.769 --> 00:00:30.850 It just drags us right back in the scandals of 00:00:30.850 --> 00:00:33.000 the last two decades. And at the same time, you 00:00:33.000 --> 00:00:36.000 have this incredibly tense, high -stakes math 00:00:36.000 --> 00:00:38.119 problem coming out of the House of Representatives. 00:00:38.159 --> 00:00:40.000 Right, that suggests the U .S. government is 00:00:40.000 --> 00:00:42.259 basically hanging by a thread. And then, just 00:00:42.259 --> 00:00:44.719 to confuse everyone, the financial markets are 00:00:44.719 --> 00:00:47.740 throwing a party. Exactly. Economists are calling 00:00:47.740 --> 00:00:50.659 it a Goldilocks scenario. So our mission today 00:00:50.659 --> 00:00:53.000 is to try and connect these dots. Right. We aren't 00:00:53.000 --> 00:00:55.460 just reading the news. We're trying to figure 00:00:55.460 --> 00:00:59.759 out what happens when a booming economy collides 00:00:59.759 --> 00:01:01.679 with a political system that feels like it's 00:01:01.679 --> 00:01:03.799 crumbling. And I think the thread tying it all 00:01:03.799 --> 00:01:07.760 together is transition. We are watching the painful, 00:01:07.760 --> 00:01:13.700 messy end of one era. The old guard and the very 00:01:13.700 --> 00:01:15.840 confusing start of something else. And we've 00:01:15.840 --> 00:01:18.500 got the data. New analysis on everything from 00:01:18.500 --> 00:01:20.920 Speaker Mike Johnson's nightmare math problem 00:01:20.920 --> 00:01:23.700 to a fascinating survey on why young Americans 00:01:23.700 --> 00:01:25.959 just don't seem to care about being a superpower 00:01:25.959 --> 00:01:28.840 anymore. And, well, inevitably we have to talk 00:01:28.840 --> 00:01:30.760 about the files everyone is whispering about. 00:01:30.900 --> 00:01:32.700 The latest Justice Department release regarding 00:01:32.700 --> 00:01:35.530 Jeffrey Epstein. We do. And I want to warn you, 00:01:35.590 --> 00:01:37.909 right up front, we are going to get specific 00:01:37.909 --> 00:01:41.709 here, not for gossip. But because the granularity, 00:01:41.790 --> 00:01:44.849 the specific details in these files, that's what 00:01:44.849 --> 00:01:47.590 destroys the plausible deniability we've heard 00:01:47.590 --> 00:01:49.849 for 20 years. Let's dive right in there. It's 00:01:49.849 --> 00:01:52.790 2026. Epstein has been dead for years. Why does 00:01:52.790 --> 00:01:55.030 this specific release matter so much right now? 00:01:55.290 --> 00:01:57.870 Because for a decade, the defense from the elite 00:01:58.159 --> 00:02:01.620 you know, princes, CEOs, politicians. It was 00:02:01.620 --> 00:02:03.840 always so vague. It was always, I met him once 00:02:03.840 --> 00:02:06.359 at a party or I didn't know. Exactly. These new 00:02:06.359 --> 00:02:08.819 documents, the flight logs, specific email chains, 00:02:08.900 --> 00:02:11.180 photos, they just stripped that defense away 00:02:11.180 --> 00:02:13.659 completely. So this is more than casual. It shows 00:02:13.659 --> 00:02:16.939 these weren't casual run -ins. This was an ecosystem. 00:02:17.379 --> 00:02:20.599 Let's start with the Royals. We know King Charles 00:02:20.599 --> 00:02:22.819 finally stripped Prince Andrew of his Royal Highness 00:02:22.819 --> 00:02:25.659 title late last year. That was a huge move. A 00:02:25.659 --> 00:02:27.780 very big deal. But looking at the descriptions 00:02:27.780 --> 00:02:31.159 in these files, I suddenly get why he had to 00:02:31.159 --> 00:02:33.479 do it. It makes the decision look less like a 00:02:33.479 --> 00:02:36.680 punishment and more like a urgent damage control. 00:02:36.840 --> 00:02:39.879 Right. The material describes a photo that is 00:02:39.879 --> 00:02:43.210 frankly bizarre. It allegedly shows Andrew, who 00:02:43.210 --> 00:02:47.250 is now, you know, legally just Andrew Mountbattenwinsor 00:02:47.250 --> 00:02:49.629 crouching on all fours. On all fours, like on 00:02:49.629 --> 00:02:52.129 the ground. Yes, over a woman who is lying on 00:02:52.129 --> 00:02:54.810 the floor. Wow. And the context suggests this 00:02:54.810 --> 00:02:57.909 wasn't some one -off joke. There are emails ranging 00:02:57.909 --> 00:03:00.550 in introduction to a 26 -year -old Russian woman. 00:03:00.669 --> 00:03:02.770 So you combine the visual description with the 00:03:02.770 --> 00:03:05.189 correspondence. And the veneer of royal dignity 00:03:05.189 --> 00:03:07.969 just evaporates? It's not just scandalous, it's 00:03:07.969 --> 00:03:10.710 humiliating. It strips away the mystery. But 00:03:10.710 --> 00:03:13.189 this rot goes deeper than the monarchy. It's 00:03:13.189 --> 00:03:15.349 the captains of industry, too. The people we 00:03:15.349 --> 00:03:16.990 were told were the smartest guys in the room. 00:03:17.250 --> 00:03:20.409 The Bill Gates emails in this stack. I have to 00:03:20.409 --> 00:03:22.560 admit. This changed my view of the recent history 00:03:22.560 --> 00:03:24.879 of tech. This is likely the darkest part of the 00:03:24.879 --> 00:03:27.560 release. We knew Gates and Epstein had friction 00:03:27.560 --> 00:03:30.759 later on. But there's a draft letter from July 00:03:30.759 --> 00:03:34.819 2013. It's Epstein writing to himself, basically 00:03:34.819 --> 00:03:37.300 drafting a lash out at Gates. And the content 00:03:37.300 --> 00:03:40.460 is, well, it's essentially allegations of medical 00:03:40.460 --> 00:03:43.199 blackmail. That's what it is. The email mentions 00:03:43.199 --> 00:03:45.900 alleged correspondence about a sexually transmitted 00:03:45.900 --> 00:03:49.349 disease. OK. But it gets much worse. It references 00:03:49.349 --> 00:03:51.729 a request for antibiotics to be given to Melinda 00:03:51.729 --> 00:03:54.830 Gates. And the key word used in the draft is 00:03:54.830 --> 00:03:57.169 surreptitiously. Surreptitiously. Let's unpack 00:03:57.169 --> 00:04:00.849 that word. In this context, that implies drugging 00:04:00.849 --> 00:04:03.569 your spouse or medicating them without their 00:04:03.569 --> 00:04:06.110 consent or knowledge. Allegedly, yes. That is 00:04:06.110 --> 00:04:07.629 what Epstein wrote. And whether it happened or 00:04:07.629 --> 00:04:09.550 not, the fact that Epstein knew this or claimed 00:04:09.550 --> 00:04:12.330 to have this leverage, it just changes the entire 00:04:12.330 --> 00:04:14.370 narrative of their relationship. It wasn't about 00:04:14.370 --> 00:04:17.160 philanthropy. No, it was about leverage. Epstein 00:04:17.160 --> 00:04:19.500 collected the secrets of powerful men to ensure 00:04:19.500 --> 00:04:22.300 his own survival. It makes you look at the entire 00:04:22.300 --> 00:04:25.560 tech sector's involvement so differently. We 00:04:25.560 --> 00:04:27.639 also have Richard Branson in here, Elon Musk. 00:04:27.720 --> 00:04:30.759 We do. With Branson, there's a 2013 email inviting 00:04:30.759 --> 00:04:33.720 Epstein to Necker Island. And Branson wrote, 00:04:34.060 --> 00:04:36.860 quote, as long as you bring your harem. Harem. 00:04:37.360 --> 00:04:39.540 That is not a word you use for administrative 00:04:39.540 --> 00:04:42.220 staff. No. His spokesperson is claiming that 00:04:42.220 --> 00:04:45.449 today, but it's... A very loaded word. It implies 00:04:45.449 --> 00:04:48.589 ownership. And Musk. With Musk, we see emails 00:04:48.589 --> 00:04:52.490 from 2012 -2013 discussing visits to Epstein's 00:04:52.490 --> 00:04:55.509 Island. Now, to be fair to the material, Musk 00:04:55.509 --> 00:04:58.209 vehemently denies these visits ever took place. 00:04:58.329 --> 00:05:00.709 He claims he refused. He claims he refused the 00:05:00.709 --> 00:05:03.569 overtures. But the correspondence shows he was 00:05:03.569 --> 00:05:06.110 in that orbit. He was being courted. And then 00:05:06.110 --> 00:05:08.029 there's the political angle. We have Donald Trump, 00:05:08.250 --> 00:05:10.439 who is currently threatening to sue The author 00:05:10.439 --> 00:05:12.500 Michael Wolf. And the Epstein estate. And the 00:05:12.500 --> 00:05:14.560 Epstein estate. This is happening right now in 00:05:14.560 --> 00:05:17.660 2026. And this connects to the strategy revealed 00:05:17.660 --> 00:05:20.259 in the files. It turns out Michael Wolf, the 00:05:20.259 --> 00:05:22.379 author known for his exposés, was apparently 00:05:22.379 --> 00:05:24.399 advising Epstein back in the day on how to handle 00:05:24.399 --> 00:05:26.980 Trump. Wait, wait. Wolf was advising Epstein. 00:05:27.680 --> 00:05:29.620 That feels like a massive conflict of interest 00:05:29.620 --> 00:05:31.339 if you're a journalist covering these people. 00:05:31.399 --> 00:05:34.300 It's incredibly messy. The advice from Wolf was 00:05:34.300 --> 00:05:38.220 to let Trump hang himself in interviews. He basically 00:05:38.220 --> 00:05:41.420 said, if Trump denies being on the plane, let 00:05:41.420 --> 00:05:43.959 him deny it. Don't correct him immediately. It 00:05:43.959 --> 00:05:46.839 gives you leverage later. So it's a trap. A strategic 00:05:46.839 --> 00:05:49.319 trap. And Trump read this in the new files and 00:05:49.319 --> 00:05:52.699 he is furious. He called Wolf a third rate writer 00:05:52.699 --> 00:05:55.730 from Air Force One. So we have the former president 00:05:55.730 --> 00:05:58.290 fighting with a journalist about a dead sex offender. 00:05:58.470 --> 00:06:02.110 It feels like the entire old guard, the people 00:06:02.110 --> 00:06:05.470 who ran the world from 2000 to 2020, are just 00:06:05.470 --> 00:06:07.750 stuck in this toxic loop. And that's the real 00:06:07.750 --> 00:06:10.350 takeaway. It's not just history. It's active 00:06:10.350 --> 00:06:12.790 geopolitical fallout. Look at Miroslav Lashtak 00:06:12.790 --> 00:06:15.050 in Slovakia, top national security advisor. Right. 00:06:15.290 --> 00:06:16.990 He had to resign this week because these files 00:06:16.990 --> 00:06:19.149 showed he was meeting Epstein years after the 00:06:19.149 --> 00:06:21.709 first conviction. The blast radius of this thing 00:06:21.709 --> 00:06:23.680 is still expanding. OK, so that's That's the 00:06:23.680 --> 00:06:26.459 Old Guard, corrupt, entangled, compromised. The 00:06:26.459 --> 00:06:29.319 total mess. Now, let's pivot to the people actually 00:06:29.319 --> 00:06:31.500 trying to run the machinery of the U .S. government 00:06:31.500 --> 00:06:35.180 today. From hidden secrets to public math, and 00:06:35.180 --> 00:06:37.879 the math is just brutal. Speaker Mike Johnson, 00:06:38.519 --> 00:06:40.819 I honestly don't know how this man sleeps. We 00:06:40.819 --> 00:06:43.160 have this electoral analysis here, and the margins 00:06:43.160 --> 00:06:46.259 aren't just thin. They're microscopic. Razor 00:06:46.259 --> 00:06:48.480 thin is the headline everyone uses, but let's 00:06:48.480 --> 00:06:50.800 look at the actual numbers because they are terrifying 00:06:50.800 --> 00:06:53.639 for a party leader. Okay. Once Christian Menafee 00:06:53.639 --> 00:06:55.759 is sworn in, he just won that special election 00:06:55.759 --> 00:07:00.319 in Texas, the count is 218 Republicans to 214 00:07:00.319 --> 00:07:03.139 Democrats. 218 to 214. Okay, walk us through 00:07:03.139 --> 00:07:04.899 the one defection rule. What does that actually 00:07:04.899 --> 00:07:07.420 mean for passing a law on a Tuesday morning? 00:07:08.199 --> 00:07:11.019 It puts Johnson in a legislative straitjacket. 00:07:11.279 --> 00:07:14.480 If one Republican defects votes no or just doesn't 00:07:14.480 --> 00:07:17.740 vote, it's technically 217 to 215. The GOP can 00:07:17.740 --> 00:07:20.019 still scrape by. OK, they still win. But if two 00:07:20.019 --> 00:07:23.079 Republicans defect, the vote fails. Two people. 00:07:23.420 --> 00:07:25.160 So if two members of his own party wake up on 00:07:25.160 --> 00:07:27.879 the wrong side of the bed or decide they want 00:07:27.879 --> 00:07:30.279 to make a point on social media, the Speaker 00:07:30.279 --> 00:07:32.829 of the House can't pass legislation. Exactly. 00:07:32.970 --> 00:07:35.509 And you have to remember who is in his caucus. 00:07:35.769 --> 00:07:38.129 This is not the most disciplined group in congressional 00:07:38.129 --> 00:07:41.170 history. You have factions within factions. Let's 00:07:41.170 --> 00:07:43.250 talk about that Texas election for a second because 00:07:43.250 --> 00:07:46.470 it feels significant beyond just the numbers. 00:07:46.769 --> 00:07:49.370 Christian Menefee won. He's a Democrat replacing 00:07:49.370 --> 00:07:51.490 a Democrat, right? So why does this matter? It 00:07:51.490 --> 00:07:55.129 matters because of who he beat. This wasn't Republican 00:07:55.129 --> 00:07:57.470 versus Democrat. In the primary, it was Democrat 00:07:57.470 --> 00:07:59.949 versus Democrat. You have Christian Menefee. 00:08:00.009 --> 00:08:03.350 He's 37 years old and he was up against the incumbent 00:08:03.350 --> 00:08:06.470 Al Green, who is 78. So it's a generational coup. 00:08:06.730 --> 00:08:09.790 It's stature versus youth. The analysis points 00:08:09.790 --> 00:08:12.680 out they are both Lefties. Ideologically, they 00:08:12.680 --> 00:08:15.579 are very similar. But Menafee's win sends a signal 00:08:15.579 --> 00:08:18.240 that voters are tired of the gerontocracy. They 00:08:18.240 --> 00:08:21.000 want to turn the page. It mirrors the Epstein 00:08:21.000 --> 00:08:23.500 stuff in a way. The old guard is full of baggage 00:08:23.500 --> 00:08:25.199 and there's this desperate push for something 00:08:25.199 --> 00:08:27.779 fresh. Exactly. So Johnson is dealing with this 00:08:27.779 --> 00:08:30.160 new member. His margin is basically two votes. 00:08:30.839 --> 00:08:33.399 Does it get any better for him? Well, the analysis 00:08:33.399 --> 00:08:35.700 mentions he has a potential luxury coming up, 00:08:35.779 --> 00:08:39.409 but it's a dark kind of luxury. What is it? Rep 00:08:39.409 --> 00:08:42.009 Sheila Cherfilis McCormick is expected to be 00:08:42.009 --> 00:08:44.970 expelled soon over some legal issues. Okay. If 00:08:44.970 --> 00:08:47.549 she is kicked out the denominator changes and 00:08:47.549 --> 00:08:51.470 Johnson's margin expands to where he can afford 00:08:51.470 --> 00:08:54.029 two defectors and it's the third that kills the 00:08:54.029 --> 00:08:56.590 bill. He gets one whole extra vote of breathing 00:08:56.590 --> 00:08:59.590 room. He must be popping champagne. It is survival 00:08:59.590 --> 00:09:02.129 politics. And you can see it in his strategy 00:09:02.129 --> 00:09:04.169 for the Department of Homeland Security funding. 00:09:04.429 --> 00:09:06.929 The DHS funding, right? He knows he can't win 00:09:06.929 --> 00:09:09.870 a floor fight with the far right. So his plan 00:09:09.870 --> 00:09:12.899 is the fait accompli. Explain that move. How 00:09:12.899 --> 00:09:14.399 do you pass something when you don't have the 00:09:14.399 --> 00:09:16.120 votes? He's going to wait. He's going to wait 00:09:16.120 --> 00:09:18.779 for the Senate to act first. Let the Senate pass 00:09:18.779 --> 00:09:21.759 a bill that gets 60 votes, a bipartisan bill. 00:09:21.759 --> 00:09:24.299 Then Johnson brings that to the House floor and 00:09:24.299 --> 00:09:26.379 says, look, I didn't write this. The Senate did. 00:09:26.440 --> 00:09:29.240 It's this or a government shutdown. Ah, so he 00:09:29.240 --> 00:09:31.700 uses the Senate as a shield against his own party's 00:09:31.700 --> 00:09:34.840 radicals. Exactly. It allows him to use Democratic 00:09:34.840 --> 00:09:37.679 votes to pass it without technically betraying 00:09:37.679 --> 00:09:40.419 his side. He's just accepting reality. He washes 00:09:40.419 --> 00:09:44.240 his hands. of the details. So politics is a mess. 00:09:44.519 --> 00:09:47.860 The elite is compromised. The government is gridlocked. 00:09:48.100 --> 00:09:50.100 You'd think the country would be falling apart. 00:09:50.240 --> 00:09:53.379 You would think. But then we look at the macro 00:09:53.379 --> 00:09:57.759 week summary from Hedgeye and the chart is just 00:09:57.759 --> 00:10:00.700 green. This is the great disconnect of 2026. 00:10:00.799 --> 00:10:03.580 While Washington is burning, the economy is entering 00:10:03.580 --> 00:10:07.279 what they call Quad One. Okay, Quad One. That 00:10:07.279 --> 00:10:09.929 sounds like sci -fi or a video game level. Break 00:10:09.929 --> 00:10:13.330 this down for us. What exactly is a quad? Think 00:10:13.330 --> 00:10:15.750 of the economy as having four distinct weather 00:10:15.750 --> 00:10:18.429 patterns. They're based on two factors, growth 00:10:18.429 --> 00:10:21.090 and inflation. Quad one is the best weather you 00:10:21.090 --> 00:10:22.809 can ask for. It means growth is accelerating, 00:10:22.909 --> 00:10:25.049 so it's going up, and inflation is decelerating, 00:10:25.129 --> 00:10:28.110 it's going down. So business is booming and prices 00:10:28.110 --> 00:10:30.289 aren't rising as fast? That's... That's actually 00:10:30.289 --> 00:10:32.230 perfect. That's the Goldilocks scenario everyone 00:10:32.230 --> 00:10:34.169 talks about. It is. And the markets are reacting 00:10:34.169 --> 00:10:36.330 aggressively. Industrials are leading the pack. 00:10:36.710 --> 00:10:38.929 Global equities are hitting highs in places like 00:10:38.929 --> 00:10:42.070 Japan, Israel, Mexico. But there was one stat 00:10:42.070 --> 00:10:44.789 that really jumped out at me. Turkey. Turkey. 00:10:45.120 --> 00:10:48.019 The country with the insane inflation rates recently. 00:10:48.620 --> 00:10:53.299 Yes. The Turkey ETF ticker TUR is up 19 .8 % 00:10:53.299 --> 00:10:55.539 month over month. That is the strongest single 00:10:55.539 --> 00:10:59.759 month since 1997. 1997. That is massive. So in 00:10:59.759 --> 00:11:02.279 a Quad One world, money flows into these high 00:11:02.279 --> 00:11:04.700 growth areas. But there have to be losers. If 00:11:04.700 --> 00:11:07.039 everything is going up, what's going down? Bitcoin. 00:11:07.320 --> 00:11:09.779 Really? Usually when stocks go up, crypto goes 00:11:09.779 --> 00:11:12.360 up. Why is it crashing? It's all about correlation. 00:11:12.759 --> 00:11:14.919 The analysis shows Bitcoin is currently locked 00:11:14.919 --> 00:11:18.320 in a positive 0 .80 correlation with the dollar. 00:11:18.419 --> 00:11:21.080 And in Quad One. In a Quad One setup, the dollar 00:11:21.080 --> 00:11:24.039 often struggles or stabilizes. And right now, 00:11:24.159 --> 00:11:26.379 Bitcoin is getting dragged down with it. It's 00:11:26.379 --> 00:11:28.860 in crash mode, according to this data. Interesting. 00:11:28.919 --> 00:11:30.860 So it's acting more like a currency and less 00:11:30.860 --> 00:11:32.639 like a tech stock right now. And speaking of 00:11:32.639 --> 00:11:34.460 tech stocks, we're seeing some weirdness in big 00:11:34.460 --> 00:11:36.899 tech too, right? Huge distortions. Microsoft 00:11:36.899 --> 00:11:39.429 fell sharply while meta surged. It's not a rising 00:11:39.429 --> 00:11:41.610 tide lifting all boats. It's a very specific 00:11:41.610 --> 00:11:43.889 rotation. The market is picking winners and losers 00:11:43.889 --> 00:11:47.029 aggressively based on who fits this quad one 00:11:47.029 --> 00:11:49.289 narrative. And where is the Federal Reserve in 00:11:49.289 --> 00:11:51.830 all this? If the economy is hot, usually they 00:11:51.830 --> 00:11:54.269 raise rates to cool it down. Are they threatening 00:11:54.269 --> 00:11:57.360 to hike? No, and that's the Goldilocks part. 00:11:57.519 --> 00:12:00.159 The summary says the Fed is signaling dovish. 00:12:00.220 --> 00:12:02.580 Dovish, meaning they want to be gentle, keep 00:12:02.580 --> 00:12:05.399 rates low. Exactly. And they can do that because 00:12:05.399 --> 00:12:08.559 of the Nowcast. What? The street low inflation 00:12:08.559 --> 00:12:11.620 Nowcast. It's a real time data tracker that shows 00:12:11.620 --> 00:12:13.700 that inflation is actually dropping faster than 00:12:13.700 --> 00:12:16.340 most people realize. The Fed has cover. Because 00:12:16.340 --> 00:12:18.620 inflation is behaving, the Fed has permission 00:12:18.620 --> 00:12:20.860 to let the economy run hot without slamming on 00:12:20.860 --> 00:12:23.240 the brakes. So let me try to summarize this picture. 00:12:24.240 --> 00:12:26.679 Politicians are fighting for their lives. The 00:12:26.679 --> 00:12:29.899 old elite is being exposed as perverts and frauds. 00:12:29.919 --> 00:12:32.320 But your 401k is probably doing pretty well. 00:12:32.820 --> 00:12:35.700 That's the paradox. But here is the million dollar 00:12:35.700 --> 00:12:38.240 question. And this leads us to our final source. 00:12:39.059 --> 00:12:42.519 Does the next generation even care? This brings 00:12:42.519 --> 00:12:45.159 us to the Carnegie Endowment survey. We talked 00:12:45.159 --> 00:12:47.320 about Menafee versus Green in Texas, the young 00:12:47.320 --> 00:12:50.000 replacing the old. But this survey suggests that 00:12:50.000 --> 00:12:52.519 the new generation isn't just younger. they are 00:12:52.519 --> 00:12:55.279 fundamentally different Americans. This is the 00:12:55.279 --> 00:12:58.379 data point that spops you in your tracks. They 00:12:58.379 --> 00:13:01.000 surveyed Americans about American exceptionalism. 00:13:01.120 --> 00:13:02.940 You know, the idea that the US is the unique 00:13:02.940 --> 00:13:05.740 dominant superpower. The city on a hill. Right. 00:13:05.929 --> 00:13:08.809 And the kids aren't buying it. Not even close. 00:13:09.409 --> 00:13:12.769 Only 39 % of 18 to 29 -year -olds see the US 00:13:12.769 --> 00:13:15.370 as the most powerful nation. Compare that to 00:13:15.370 --> 00:13:18.549 nearly half of seniors. But here's the kicker. 00:13:19.169 --> 00:13:21.690 Young adults are statistically much more likely 00:13:21.690 --> 00:13:24.669 to see China as equally or even more powerful 00:13:24.669 --> 00:13:27.389 than the US. That is a huge shift in perception. 00:13:27.710 --> 00:13:30.659 Is this just cynicism? Or is it reality? It's 00:13:30.659 --> 00:13:33.720 their lived reality. The source unpacks the why 00:13:33.720 --> 00:13:36.799 really well. First, simply economic failure. 00:13:37.000 --> 00:13:39.600 Housing affordability, student debt. Right. Leaders 00:13:39.600 --> 00:13:42.240 have failed to solve the basic entry -level requirements 00:13:42.240 --> 00:13:45.200 of the American dream. It's hard to feel exceptional 00:13:45.200 --> 00:13:46.840 when you can't afford a one -bedroom apartment. 00:13:47.179 --> 00:13:49.539 Precisely. But there's a deeper historical reason 00:13:49.539 --> 00:13:52.340 that I think we often overlook. The expert analysis 00:13:52.340 --> 00:13:54.639 notes that young people today have no memory 00:13:54.639 --> 00:13:56.820 of the Cold War. I want to dig into that. Explain 00:13:56.820 --> 00:13:59.509 why that memory gap matters so much. Think about 00:13:59.509 --> 00:14:03.889 the mindset of a baby boomer or Gen X. For them, 00:14:04.389 --> 00:14:07.409 American dominance was existential. It was us 00:14:07.409 --> 00:14:09.629 versus them. We had to be the superpower. Or 00:14:09.629 --> 00:14:12.309 the Soviet Union would take over the world. Dominance 00:14:12.309 --> 00:14:15.629 meant safety. It meant freedom. And for a 25 00:14:15.629 --> 00:14:17.730 -year -old today, they never felt that threat. 00:14:17.980 --> 00:14:20.779 To them, American power doesn't look like protection. 00:14:21.120 --> 00:14:23.940 It often looks like bullying or failed interventions 00:14:23.940 --> 00:14:26.539 in the Middle East. They just don't see the utility 00:14:26.539 --> 00:14:29.000 of the empire. Because they never saw the alternative. 00:14:29.220 --> 00:14:31.879 They didn't live through the time when the alternative 00:14:31.879 --> 00:14:34.379 was terrifying. And there's a stat on apathy 00:14:34.379 --> 00:14:36.120 here that really drives that home. What is it? 00:14:36.240 --> 00:14:39.620 Only 38 % of young adults think it's very important 00:14:39.620 --> 00:14:42.519 for America to have global power. For seniors, 00:14:42.639 --> 00:14:46.559 that number is 60%. That is a 22 point gap. A 00:14:46.559 --> 00:14:49.019 22 point gap. The future leaders of this country 00:14:49.019 --> 00:14:51.679 simply do not care about maintaining the geopolitical 00:14:51.679 --> 00:14:54.279 order. That is a profound disconnect. So let's 00:14:54.279 --> 00:14:56.460 pull these threads together. We have the old 00:14:56.460 --> 00:14:58.960 guard represented by the Epstein files that is 00:14:58.960 --> 00:15:02.340 morally bankrupt and fading away. We have a Congress 00:15:02.340 --> 00:15:05.000 that is structurally paralyzed by razor thin 00:15:05.000 --> 00:15:07.820 math. We have an economy that is booming, technically. 00:15:08.419 --> 00:15:10.320 But we have a youth generation that is looking 00:15:10.320 --> 00:15:13.159 at all of this and saying, I don't care. Yeah. 00:15:13.320 --> 00:15:16.460 So what? It's a transition point, a very, very 00:15:16.460 --> 00:15:19.779 messy one. The institutions we relied on, the 00:15:19.779 --> 00:15:21.899 adults in the room, the two -party system, the 00:15:21.899 --> 00:15:24.679 global superpower narrative, they are all hitting 00:15:24.679 --> 00:15:27.460 a wall at the same time. And the new guard, guys 00:15:27.460 --> 00:15:30.120 like Menafee or the respondents in the survey, 00:15:30.320 --> 00:15:32.620 they are stepping up. but they aren't here to 00:15:32.620 --> 00:15:34.740 restore the old glory. They have a totally different 00:15:34.740 --> 00:15:37.139 set of values. They don't worship American power. 00:15:37.440 --> 00:15:39.519 Yeah. And honestly, looking at the Epstein files, 00:15:39.620 --> 00:15:41.879 can you blame them? They are looking at the peak 00:15:41.879 --> 00:15:44.840 America era and seeing corruption, leverage, 00:15:45.220 --> 00:15:47.220 and hypocrisy. They might be thinking, if that's 00:15:47.220 --> 00:15:48.799 what it costs to be on top, I don't want it. 00:15:49.000 --> 00:15:53.139 Exactly. So the question is, can Quad One economic 00:15:53.139 --> 00:15:56.649 growth fix that? Can a booming stock market make 00:15:56.649 --> 00:15:58.850 a 25 -year -old believe in the American project 00:15:58.850 --> 00:16:01.409 again? I don't think so. Money buys comfort, 00:16:01.470 --> 00:16:04.629 but it doesn't buy purpose. If the younger generation 00:16:04.629 --> 00:16:07.610 doesn't care about global dominance, then American 00:16:07.610 --> 00:16:09.970 power will recede. Not because we were defeated 00:16:09.970 --> 00:16:12.730 by China, but because we just stopped showing 00:16:12.730 --> 00:16:16.429 up. We just shrugged and went home. That is a 00:16:16.429 --> 00:16:19.309 heavy but necessary thought to end on. From the 00:16:19.309 --> 00:16:21.490 secrets of the elite to the apathy of the youth, 00:16:21.639 --> 00:16:24.080 Everything is shifting under our feet. It certainly 00:16:24.080 --> 00:16:26.779 is. The only constant right now is change. Thank 00:16:26.779 --> 00:16:29.120 you for joining us on this deep dive. The sources 00:16:29.120 --> 00:16:31.159 are fascinating, and I encourage you to look 00:16:31.159 --> 00:16:33.620 at the data yourself. It's a lot to process, 00:16:33.740 --> 00:16:35.379 but that's why we're here. We'll see you next 00:16:35.379 --> 00:16:35.580 time.