WEBVTT

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It's Friday, January 30th, 2026. And looking

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at the stack of reports for this week, the theme

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isn't just chaos, though there's plenty of that.

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Oh, there is. It feels more specific. It's like

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we're watching this head on collision between,

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you know, political theater, the performance

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of governing and the actual mechanical reality

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of of running a country. That is a perfect way

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to put it. Because from the streets of Minneapolis

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to the halls of the Federal Reserve, everyone

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seems to be holding their breath. Just waiting

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for that other shoe to drop. Exactly. We're seeing

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mixed messages on law enforcement, a government

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shutdown that looks absolutely inevitable this

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weekend, and a huge shakeup at the top of the

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financial world. It is a lot to get through.

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So for this deep dive, our mission is to cut

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through all of that noise. We've got legislative

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updates, electoral analysis, and some breaking

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news on the economy that's... Uh, honestly going

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to affect everyone's wallet. And... We're going

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to connect the dots. We want to move past the

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headlines and really look at what's driving these

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decisions. Why is the administration saying two

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completely different things about the border?

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Why is this Fed chair nomination happening right

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now? OK, let's start in Minneapolis. This story

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just will not go away. We've covered the Alex

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Priddy shooting, the ICE fallout. But now the

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administration has sent in Ham Homan, the border

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czar, to clean up what they're calling the Gregory

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Bovino mess. Right. And this is where that whole

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mixed messages thing just kicks in immediately.

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Homan gets to Minneapolis, and he announces a

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plan to begin a drawdown of ICE agents. OK, so

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that sounds like de -escalation. He's trying

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to lower the temperature. You'd think so, but

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then just hours later, you have Donald Trump

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being asked about this drawdown, and his response

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is, quote, no, no, not at all. So the fixer says

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pull back, and the boss says full steam ahead.

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It's a classic case of what you'd call a cleanup

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confusopoly. The analysis suggests it's not a

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mistake. It lets them play to two audiences at

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once. Holman talks to the moderates and local

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officials, and Trump talks to the base that wants

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a hard line. And we're seeing this exact same

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thing in New England with Senator Susan Collins,

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aren't we? Exactly. This is such a fascinating

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little subplot. Senator Collins announces that

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the DHS secretary, Kristi Noem, told her that

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ICE has ended its enhanced activities in Maine.

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Enhanced activities? Okay, but what's the difference

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between that and just regular activities? That

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is the million dollar question, isn't it? The

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sources we have point out that there is no standard

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legal definition for that term. So by saying

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they've ended, Collins gets to tell her constituents

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she solved the problem. Which she needs to do

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to survive politically. Of course. And meanwhile,

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the administration can keep the operational tempo

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exactly where it was, just under a different

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name. A semantic game. But while they're playing

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word games, the situation around privacy and

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tech is getting very real. We have to talk about

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the Signal app. This is a major deep dive moment.

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If you have a smartphone, you should really pay

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attention to this. The FBI director, Kash Patel,

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has announced an investigation into activists

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using the app Signal. That's the encrypted messaging

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app, right? The one focused on privacy. That's

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the one. And Patel is claiming that activists

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using it to track ICE movements are, in his words,

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breaking the law. He went on a podcast and basically

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compared them to a terrorist network. That seems

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extreme. What's the legal argument? It's based

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on two things, intent and encryption. He claims

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that because they have the intent to obstruct

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federal agents and they're using encryption to

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hide it, it becomes a criminal conspiracy. But

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our legal sources are. Well, they're tearing

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that apart. Completely. First off, the terrorism

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laws he's citing usually apply to non -citizens.

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These are Americans with First Amendment rights.

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Right. It's not illegal for me to see an ICE

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agent on a public street and text my friend,

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hey, there's a Fed on Fifth Street. Precisely.

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That is protected speech. You're tracking public

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agents in a public space. And the encryption

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part. The analysts just call that a red herring.

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A legal act doesn't become illegal just because

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you use a secure app. What about the obstruction

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claim? That's the weakest part of his argument.

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Legally, obstruction almost always requires you

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to physically interfere. Stand in their way,

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block a car. You can't physically obstruct someone

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from a chat app. So it's not a legal case so

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much as an intimidation tactic. That's the consensus,

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yeah. It's about creating a chilling effect,

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making people afraid to even have the app on

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their phone. Speaking of chilling, let's talk

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about the new video that came out about Alex

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Preti, the shooting victim in Minneapolis. Yes.

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A new video was released, and it shows Preti

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arguing with ICE agents. In the footage, he spits

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in their direction and kicks a taillight on a

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federal vehicle. And some people are pointing

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to that and saying, see? He was aggressive. They're

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using it to justify what happened later. But

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the context here is absolutely everything. You

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have to look at the timestamp. That video is

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from 11 days before he was shot. 11 days. Exactly.

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And one source pointed to what Willie Guy said

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on MSNBC, which really nails it. The question

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isn't, was Alex pretty a saint? The question

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is, does kicking a tail light justify an execution

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style shooting almost two weeks later? Especially

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when On the day he was actually killed, the evidence

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suggests he wasn't resisting. Correct. He wasn't

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resisting that day. The existence of an old video

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doesn't change the facts of what happened at

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the moment the trigger was pulled. It's a heavy

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situation, and that tension is now bleeding into

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Washington and this looming government shutdown.

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It's a total mess. The House bill failed in the

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Senate, 45 to 55, and the House has already left

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town, so a weekend shutdown is pretty much a

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guarantee. So what's the plan? just kick the

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can down the road. That seems to be the strategy.

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But here's the twist. The deal they're floating

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is to pass all the spending bills except for

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the Department of Homeland Security. Ah, so they're

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isolating DHS because it's too controversial

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right now. Exactly. Nobody wants to touch it.

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Yeah. So the idea is to give DHS a separate two

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-week extension and figure it out later. But

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even that plan is hitting roadblocks. It is.

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You have Republican budget hawks like Rand Paul

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and Mike Lee voting no. And Lindsey Graham is

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objecting to unanimous consent. So the whole

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sausage making process is just completely jammed

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up. And while Congress is jammed, the White House

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held a cabinet meeting that the sources are calling

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vaudeville. That's putting it nicely. We know

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that the DHS Secretary Kristi Noem and the Attorney

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General Pam Bondi were there, but they weren't

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allowed to speak. which is a huge tell. That's

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the political timeout corner. They're taking

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the heat for the Minnesota headlines so they

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get silenced. The rest of the meeting was basically

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a praise circle for Trump. So one detail that

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just stood out, Energy Secretary Chris Wright

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praising beautiful, clean coal for saving lives.

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It's the perfect example of how performative

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it all is. Because here's the irony you need

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to know. The Department of Energy deals with

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nuclear weapons. Right. Not coal. Coal is under

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the Department of the Interior. So the energy

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secretary is praising a resource he doesn't even

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manage. It shows the meeting wasn't about policy.

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It was about loyalty. A pep rally. Exactly. Trump's

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approval is down to 37 percent, which is getting

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close to what they call the Bush line. He needed

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a pep rally. Facts be damned. Well, if that was

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a pep rally, the financial market's just got

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a bombshell. We have a new nominee for Fed chair.

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This is the big one. Donald Trump has nominated

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Kevin Warsh to replace Jerome Powell. And for

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anyone listening, the Fed chair is arguably the

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second most powerful person in the world. And

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Trump's reasoning for picking him. He said Warsh

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is central casting. Central casting. It tells

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you everything about how he views these jobs.

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So who is Kevin Warsh? What do we know about

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him? He's a Wall Street insider. A former Fed

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governor under George W. Bush worked at Morgan

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Stanley. And crucially, he married into the Ron

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Lauder family. They're huge Trump donors. So

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he's got the connections. But what does he believe

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about the economy? Because Powell and Trump have

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been at war. Warsh is what you'd call a supply

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side guy. He is a very specific theory. He thinks

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inflation is caused by government spending, not

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by wages going up. That's a huge distinction.

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It is. And he's also incredibly bullish on AI.

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He thinks artificial intelligence will boost

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productivity so much that it'll naturally lower

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inflation. And because of that, he thinks he

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can cut interest rates. So, robots will save

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us from inflation so we can lower interest rates

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now. In a nutshell, yes. He believes the U .S.

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is already in a housing recession and that rates

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need to come down. But here's the key part that

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aligns him with Trump. He sees tariffs as just

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one -off price changes. Not as a long -term problem.

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Right. Most economists worry tariffs cause systemic

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inflation. Warsh says, no, it's just a one -time

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bump. That gives Trump perfect intellectual cover

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for his trade wars. But getting him confirmed

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might not be that easy. No. Senator Tom Tillis

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has threatened to block any nominee until the

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DOJ resolves its criminal investigation into

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the current chair, Jerome Powell. Let's just

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pause there. The DOJ is criminally investigating

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the current Fed chair. Yes. And many see that

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investigation as a political pressure tactic.

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There's even talk that Powell might stay on the

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board as a regular governor after his term as

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chair ends, just to protect the institution.

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Wow. He'd demote himself. To block a seat and

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protect the Fed's independence, it would be a

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historic move. So how did the markets react to

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Warsh? Stocks ticked up a little. Wall Street

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knows him. But gold plunged. The bigger picture,

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though, is that the stock market just had its

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worst first year for a president since 2005,

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and the trade deficit just skyrocketed. Suggesting

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the tariffs are backfiring. The data certainly

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points that way. Speaking of policies that might

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backfire, there's this new proposal about visas.

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Oh, this is a classic case of security theater.

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The proposal is to require visitors on 90 -day

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visas to provide a list of their social media

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accounts. So a tourist coming to Vegas has to

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hand over their Instagram handle. Pretty much.

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And the source we saw estimates this could cost

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the U .S. 4 .7 million tourists and about 16

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billion dollars in revenue. 16 billion dollars.

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And I mean, let's be honest, a real bad guy isn't

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going to list their real crime account on the

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floor. Of course not. They'll just make a fake

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one. So we lose the tourism money and we don't

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actually get any safer. An expensive show. Which

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brings us to another struggling institution.

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The Washington Post. The source material describes

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it as imploding. It's a really grim situation.

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We know Jeff Bezos changed the editorial policy

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to be more pro Trump and subscribers fled. Now

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we're seeing the fallout. They're cutting coverage

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of the Winter Olympics, local sports teams. I

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even read they might cut the entire foreign desk.

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That's the rumor. A paper in the nation's capital

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with no foreign desk. It shows the Bezos model

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is failing. He's not subsidizing the losses.

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And it gets darker. The DOJ recently raided a

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reporter's home and apparently got access to

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the newsroom's internal Slack channels. That's

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terrifying for a free press. It's a massive chilling

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effect. If you can't talk about a story internally

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without the DOJ reading along, you stop going

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after the hard stories. You just can't. Before

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we wrap, a couple of quick legal hits. Trump

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is suing the IRS. For $10 billion over the 2020

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tax leak. $10 billion? Does that have any chance?

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Not really. The statute of limitations is likely

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expired. The leaker is already in jail. And here's

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the catch. To prove $10 billion in damages, Trump

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would have to open his current financial boats

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in discovery. The one thing he never wants to

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do. Exactly. So it's probably just a distraction.

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And finally, there's some math in the House of

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Representatives that's about to get tricky. An

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expulsion. Sheila Cherfilis McCormick, a Democrat

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from Florida. She's likely facing expulsion after

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a really damning ethics committee report. And

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why does that matter to the average listener?

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because Speaker Mike Johnson can only afford

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to lose two votes on any given bill right now.

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If she gets expelled, that margin shrinks. Every

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single vote becomes a potential crisis and the

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House becomes basically ungovernable. So I see

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the Fed, the shutdown, the press. What's the

00:12:07.029 --> 00:12:09.090
thread connecting all of this? I think the thread

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is a shift away from expertise and towards performance.

00:12:13.090 --> 00:12:15.289
You see it everywhere. The pep rally cabinet

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meeting. the central casting Fed nominee, the

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security theater visa rule. It's all about how

00:12:21.129 --> 00:12:24.029
things look, not how they actually work. Precisely.

00:12:24.470 --> 00:12:28.509
But the economy and the budget, they are mechanical

00:12:28.509 --> 00:12:31.149
realities. They don't run on applause. And the

00:12:31.149 --> 00:12:33.950
thought I want to leave you with is this. If

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the Fed, the FBI, and the budget all become purely

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performative tools for the executive, at what

00:12:39.970 --> 00:12:42.090
point does that performance fail to manage the

00:12:42.090 --> 00:12:45.009
actual mechanics of a global economy? You can't

00:12:45.009 --> 00:12:46.870
spin your way out of a trade deficit forever.

00:12:47.149 --> 00:12:49.549
The math eventually wins. The numbers don't lie,

00:12:50.070 --> 00:12:52.070
even if the politicians do. That's a thought

00:12:52.070 --> 00:12:53.509
that is definitely going to stick with me. We'll

00:12:53.509 --> 00:12:55.330
be watching the markets react to Kevin Warsh

00:12:55.330 --> 00:12:57.830
next week. That'll be the real scorecard. Thanks

00:12:57.830 --> 00:12:59.649
for joining us on this deep dive. We will be

00:12:59.649 --> 00:13:00.970
back next time. Stay curious.
