WEBVTT 00:00:00.000 --> 00:00:06.000 It is Thursday, January 29, 2026. And if you're 00:00:06.000 --> 00:00:07.900 picturing the United States Senate right now, 00:00:08.000 --> 00:00:11.539 I want you to imagine a game of hot potato. Yeah, 00:00:11.539 --> 00:00:14.140 but not the fun kind. No, not the one you played 00:00:14.140 --> 00:00:16.000 in kindergarten. Oh, this is the really high 00:00:16.000 --> 00:00:18.039 stakes version. And instead of a potato, it's 00:00:18.039 --> 00:00:20.199 the funding for the Department of Homeland Security. 00:00:20.199 --> 00:00:22.440 And if this potato drops, the entire federal 00:00:22.440 --> 00:00:26.160 government shuts down. Welcome back to the deep 00:00:26.160 --> 00:00:30.800 dive. Today feels Well, it feels heavy. I'm looking 00:00:30.800 --> 00:00:33.340 at the stack of sources on the desk, and at first 00:00:33.340 --> 00:00:36.759 glance, it feels like this chaotic pile of bad 00:00:36.759 --> 00:00:39.939 news. We have a government shutdown looming where 00:00:39.939 --> 00:00:42.060 the leadership seems, I don't know, allergic 00:00:42.060 --> 00:00:44.520 to actually leading. We have what being called 00:00:44.520 --> 00:00:46.520 the mother of all trade deals happening halfway 00:00:46.520 --> 00:00:49.520 across the world. Without us. Without us. And 00:00:49.520 --> 00:00:51.899 then we have this fascinating and honestly kind 00:00:51.899 --> 00:00:54.840 of brutal look at why the Democratic Party is 00:00:54.840 --> 00:00:56.920 struggling to talk to normal voters. It sounds 00:00:56.920 --> 00:01:00.119 disjointed. I know you hear domestic budget squabbles, 00:01:00.500 --> 00:01:02.320 international macroeconomics, and then party 00:01:02.320 --> 00:01:04.340 identity politics. And you think, what connects 00:01:04.340 --> 00:01:07.459 these? But the mission for this deep dive is 00:01:07.459 --> 00:01:10.060 to connect those dots. Because what we're really 00:01:10.060 --> 00:01:12.500 looking at today is a split screen. I like that 00:01:12.500 --> 00:01:15.670 image. A split screen. Exactly. On one side of 00:01:15.670 --> 00:01:18.090 the screen, you've got Washington just paralyzed 00:01:18.090 --> 00:01:22.829 by tactical maneuvering and obsessively relitigating 00:01:22.829 --> 00:01:25.090 the past. And on the other side. On the other 00:01:25.090 --> 00:01:27.870 side, the global balance of power is shifting, 00:01:27.870 --> 00:01:30.250 and it isn't waiting for the US to get its act 00:01:30.250 --> 00:01:32.450 together. OK, so that is the thread we need to 00:01:32.450 --> 00:01:34.689 pull today. Let's start on the paralyzed side 00:01:34.689 --> 00:01:36.569 of the screen. Let's head to Capitol Hill. Right. 00:01:36.829 --> 00:01:39.269 The situation with Senate Majority Leader John 00:01:39.269 --> 00:01:44.189 Thune is, well, The reporting suggests it's unique. 00:01:44.469 --> 00:01:46.230 Unique is a polite way to put it. I mean, the 00:01:46.230 --> 00:01:48.170 core issue here is the budget, right? The government 00:01:48.170 --> 00:01:50.650 needs funding. And constitutionally, that's Congress's 00:01:50.650 --> 00:01:54.230 job, the power of the purse. Exactly. And usually, 00:01:54.569 --> 00:01:56.930 the Senate majority leader's job is to, well, 00:01:57.049 --> 00:01:58.950 lead the Senate in passing that legislation. 00:01:59.109 --> 00:02:01.129 But Thune has effectively thrown up his hands. 00:02:01.689 --> 00:02:04.250 The reports say he's refusing to negotiate. He's 00:02:04.250 --> 00:02:06.170 explicitly saying that's the president's job. 00:02:06.319 --> 00:02:09.280 And that's the hot potato. Thun is basically 00:02:09.280 --> 00:02:11.860 taking this stance that, OK, the power might 00:02:11.860 --> 00:02:15.719 be constitutional, but practically he wants Democrats 00:02:15.719 --> 00:02:18.340 to go talk to Donald Trump directly. He's trying 00:02:18.340 --> 00:02:20.680 to force a direct negotiation between them and 00:02:20.680 --> 00:02:23.080 the White House over the Department of Homeland 00:02:23.080 --> 00:02:26.699 Security, DHS. Yes. And this is where the strategy 00:02:26.699 --> 00:02:29.719 gets really twisty, because Senate Minority Leader 00:02:29.719 --> 00:02:32.500 Chuck Schumer, he has a counterplay. Right. He's 00:02:32.500 --> 00:02:35.139 looking at the board and saying, look, 96 percent 00:02:35.139 --> 00:02:37.560 of the government funding is agreed upon. Let's 00:02:37.560 --> 00:02:39.860 just pass that. We'll handle DHS and the border 00:02:39.860 --> 00:02:42.419 separately. Which sounds completely logical on 00:02:42.419 --> 00:02:45.500 paper. You know, isolate the radioactive part 00:02:45.500 --> 00:02:48.560 immigration, ICE, the border, and keep the lights 00:02:48.560 --> 00:02:50.599 on for the rest of the country. It prevents a 00:02:50.599 --> 00:02:52.979 total shutdown. It does. Yeah. But Thun is having 00:02:52.979 --> 00:02:55.060 none of it. because of leverage. It's all about 00:02:55.060 --> 00:02:58.560 leverage. Precisely. Thune understands the game 00:02:58.560 --> 00:03:00.319 board better than people give him credit for. 00:03:00.580 --> 00:03:02.840 He knows that if he agrees to split the bills, 00:03:03.039 --> 00:03:04.860 he loses all his power. He gives up the whole 00:03:04.860 --> 00:03:06.400 game. The rest of the government gets funded 00:03:06.400 --> 00:03:09.219 and suddenly the Democrats have zero incentive 00:03:09.219 --> 00:03:12.719 to give Republicans what they want on DHS. Yeah. 00:03:12.719 --> 00:03:14.199 If the Parks Department and the Pentagon are 00:03:14.199 --> 00:03:16.780 funded, the pressure's off. Democrats can just 00:03:16.780 --> 00:03:19.139 let the DHS funding hang there forever. And Thune 00:03:19.139 --> 00:03:22.270 knows that If he allows that to happen, if he 00:03:22.270 --> 00:03:25.430 gives up that leverage, it will, well, the sources 00:03:25.430 --> 00:03:27.710 say it will infuriate Donald Trump. The reporting 00:03:27.710 --> 00:03:30.150 says he's scared to death of that scenario. He 00:03:30.150 --> 00:03:32.819 doesn't want to be the one who folded. So we're 00:03:32.819 --> 00:03:34.979 heading toward a standoff. And here's the trap. 00:03:35.000 --> 00:03:39.120 OK. If the government shuts down over this specific 00:03:39.120 --> 00:03:41.659 slice of funding, the Republican narrative is 00:03:41.659 --> 00:03:43.539 already written. They'll just claim Democrats 00:03:43.539 --> 00:03:46.939 want to defund ICE. Which brings us to, I think, 00:03:47.080 --> 00:03:49.560 the most fascinating piece of political analysis 00:03:49.560 --> 00:03:54.159 in our stack today, because defund ICE is a politically 00:03:54.159 --> 00:03:57.340 toxic accusation. Oh, it is. But the Democrats 00:03:57.340 --> 00:03:59.659 might actually have a counter move this time. 00:03:59.770 --> 00:04:02.210 I was digging into this report from the Searchlight 00:04:02.210 --> 00:04:04.949 Institute, their democratic think tank, and they're 00:04:04.949 --> 00:04:08.860 pushing this concept called popularism. Popularism 00:04:08.860 --> 00:04:10.860 is such an interesting framework. It almost sounds 00:04:10.860 --> 00:04:13.659 redundant, like, shouldn't politicians do popular 00:04:13.659 --> 00:04:16.660 things? But in our current climate, it's actually 00:04:16.660 --> 00:04:19.639 radical. It basically means advocating for policies 00:04:19.639 --> 00:04:21.920 that are actually popular with a majority of 00:04:21.920 --> 00:04:24.920 voters rather than, you know, prioritizing things 00:04:24.920 --> 00:04:28.480 that satisfy ideological purity or the activist 00:04:28.480 --> 00:04:30.639 base. And Searchlight just dropped a poll that 00:04:30.639 --> 00:04:33.399 completely upends that defund ICE narrative. 00:04:33.500 --> 00:04:35.699 The numbers are just wild. They are. They found 00:04:35.699 --> 00:04:40.240 that 58 % of voters want to reform ICE, not abolish 00:04:40.240 --> 00:04:43.300 it. And when you look at independents, you know, 00:04:43.379 --> 00:04:46.000 the people who actually decide elections. Swing 00:04:46.000 --> 00:04:49.160 voters. Yeah, the swing voters. 35 % of them 00:04:49.160 --> 00:04:52.240 favor reform over any other option. So the big 00:04:52.240 --> 00:04:54.899 insight here is that the defund slogan was a 00:04:54.899 --> 00:04:57.980 total disaster, but reform is a winner. That's 00:04:57.980 --> 00:05:00.720 it exactly. Voters want border security. They 00:05:00.720 --> 00:05:02.860 want deportation of undocumented immigrants. 00:05:03.040 --> 00:05:05.579 The data is really clear on that. But... And 00:05:05.579 --> 00:05:07.920 this is a key nuance. They're uncomfortable with 00:05:07.920 --> 00:05:10.379 the tactics. So things like warrants. Warrants 00:05:10.379 --> 00:05:13.000 for entering homes. They want officers to wear 00:05:13.000 --> 00:05:15.060 uniforms and identification. They want to bar 00:05:15.060 --> 00:05:17.480 the detention of U .S. citizens. Basic stuff. 00:05:17.680 --> 00:05:20.860 So the strategy Searchlight is proposing is for 00:05:20.860 --> 00:05:24.060 Democrats to say, fine, we'll fund DHS. We aren't 00:05:24.060 --> 00:05:26.560 defunding anything, but we will only release 00:05:26.560 --> 00:05:29.060 the money if you pass these specific reforms. 00:05:29.279 --> 00:05:31.399 It flips the script. Instead of being the party 00:05:31.399 --> 00:05:34.319 of abolish, which sounds, you know, chaotic. 00:05:35.100 --> 00:05:37.560 They become the party of accountability. And 00:05:37.560 --> 00:05:40.879 that forces Republicans to explain why they oppose 00:05:40.879 --> 00:05:43.660 requiring a warrant to enter a home. Yeah, that's 00:05:43.660 --> 00:05:46.259 a tough position for a Republican to defend to 00:05:46.259 --> 00:05:48.459 a libertarian -leaning voter. No, we don't want 00:05:48.459 --> 00:05:51.199 warrants. It's tough. It is. The source notes 00:05:51.199 --> 00:05:54.029 that unlike Henry Clay... these strategists would 00:05:54.029 --> 00:05:57.750 rather be president than be right in some academic 00:05:57.750 --> 00:06:00.170 sense. It's about winning. Meeting voters where 00:06:00.170 --> 00:06:01.829 they are. Meeting voters where they are. Hold 00:06:01.829 --> 00:06:03.449 that thought because we are definitely coming 00:06:03.449 --> 00:06:06.089 back to that. But first, speaking of unpopular 00:06:06.089 --> 00:06:08.370 positions and hard tactics, we have to pivot 00:06:08.370 --> 00:06:11.410 to the executive branch. OK. Because while Congress 00:06:11.410 --> 00:06:15.149 is in this staring contest, the FBI is making 00:06:15.149 --> 00:06:17.449 moves down in Georgia. This is the story out 00:06:17.449 --> 00:06:19.949 of Fulton County. And frankly, this reads less 00:06:19.949 --> 00:06:22.649 like a political update and more like I don't 00:06:22.649 --> 00:06:25.790 know, a legal thriller? It really does. Yesterday, 00:06:26.189 --> 00:06:28.970 the FBI executed a search warrant at the Fulton 00:06:28.970 --> 00:06:31.449 County elections office. And this wasn't some 00:06:31.449 --> 00:06:34.250 random inquiry. This was directed by Cash Patel. 00:06:34.610 --> 00:06:37.209 And driven, according to our sources, by Donald 00:06:37.209 --> 00:06:39.730 Trump's lingering obsession with the 2020 election. 00:06:39.790 --> 00:06:42.889 It is 2026. I know. We are six years removed 00:06:42.889 --> 00:06:45.509 from that election. We are. But the grievance, 00:06:45.509 --> 00:06:48.269 it remains the central operating principle for 00:06:48.269 --> 00:06:50.680 the former president. The source points out that 00:06:50.680 --> 00:06:54.300 despite the Georgia Secretary of State, a Republican. 00:06:54.319 --> 00:06:57.079 Right, a Republican. And multiple judges all 00:06:57.079 --> 00:06:59.360 saying there was no fraud. The administration 00:06:59.360 --> 00:07:01.980 is using federal law enforcement to go in and 00:07:01.980 --> 00:07:04.939 inspect 2020 records. There was a detail in the 00:07:04.939 --> 00:07:07.339 reporting that just gave me chills. The fear 00:07:07.339 --> 00:07:09.180 among the election officials isn't just that 00:07:09.180 --> 00:07:11.620 the FBI is looking, it's what happens if they 00:07:11.620 --> 00:07:13.639 seize the ballots. You break the chain of custody. 00:07:13.860 --> 00:07:15.740 Exactly. They could physically destroy the margin 00:07:15.740 --> 00:07:20.399 of victory. The 11 ,780 votes. Yes. If those 00:07:20.399 --> 00:07:22.879 ballots disappear or if they're compromised. 00:07:23.149 --> 00:07:25.850 They can claim a retroactive victory. They can 00:07:25.850 --> 00:07:28.490 say, see, the evidence is gone. The count was 00:07:28.490 --> 00:07:31.509 wrong. I won. It's pure score settling. And you 00:07:31.509 --> 00:07:33.430 have to look at the personnel moves to really 00:07:33.430 --> 00:07:36.730 understand how this happened. The top FBI agent 00:07:36.730 --> 00:07:40.089 in Atlanta, Paul Brown, was replaced just a week 00:07:40.089 --> 00:07:42.269 before this raid. That is not a coincidence. 00:07:42.610 --> 00:07:45.329 It just can't be. It suggests a clearing of the 00:07:45.329 --> 00:07:47.610 decks. They needed someone in place who would 00:07:47.610 --> 00:07:50.689 ensure this operation went forward without any 00:07:50.689 --> 00:07:54.889 internal resistance. It's just using the machinery 00:07:54.889 --> 00:07:57.930 of government to relitigate the past. So you 00:07:57.930 --> 00:07:59.870 had the executive branch looking backward at 00:07:59.870 --> 00:08:03.089 2020. Meanwhile, in the House, the Democrats 00:08:03.089 --> 00:08:04.790 are trying to use their own limited machinery 00:08:04.790 --> 00:08:06.889 to go after the current administration. Right. 00:08:06.949 --> 00:08:09.569 The impeachment of DHS Secretary Kristi Noem. 00:08:09.750 --> 00:08:11.980 This is the violence unleashed resolution. Over 00:08:11.980 --> 00:08:14.720 160 Democrats have cosigned it. They're charging 00:08:14.720 --> 00:08:17.360 that her management of DHS has led to violence 00:08:17.360 --> 00:08:19.480 against the American people. But we have to be 00:08:19.480 --> 00:08:21.480 realistic about the math here. Democrats are 00:08:21.480 --> 00:08:23.139 in the minority in the House. They can't actually 00:08:23.139 --> 00:08:25.379 remove her, can they? No, not a chance. Even 00:08:25.379 --> 00:08:27.459 if they passed it in the House, they need a two 00:08:27.459 --> 00:08:30.660 thirds vote in the Senate to convict. That is 00:08:30.660 --> 00:08:33.440 mathematically impossible. So the strategy isn't 00:08:33.440 --> 00:08:36.980 removal. It's something else. It's exposure. 00:08:37.419 --> 00:08:39.539 Because it's a privileged resolution, they can 00:08:39.539 --> 00:08:41.720 force a floor vote. They can make everyone vote. 00:08:41.879 --> 00:08:43.740 They can force every single member of the House 00:08:43.740 --> 00:08:45.700 to go on the record. So it's strategic theater. 00:08:45.899 --> 00:08:48.740 It is, but strategic theater has consequences. 00:08:49.440 --> 00:08:51.500 First, it shows their base they're fighting. 00:08:52.080 --> 00:08:55.100 But more importantly, it puts every single House 00:08:55.100 --> 00:08:58.840 Republican in a bind. Because they have to vote 00:08:58.840 --> 00:09:02.159 to support Noem. And if she continues to be unpopular... 00:09:02.139 --> 00:09:04.620 and her approval ratings are really sliding, 00:09:05.059 --> 00:09:07.120 that vote becomes an anchor around their necks 00:09:07.120 --> 00:09:08.840 in the midterms. And there was a little crack 00:09:08.840 --> 00:09:11.039 in the armor mentioned in the source that I found 00:09:11.039 --> 00:09:14.080 really interesting. The retiring Republicans. 00:09:14.360 --> 00:09:16.580 Yes. People like Tom Tillis or Thomas Massey, 00:09:16.580 --> 00:09:19.519 they're leaving Congress. They don't fear Trump's 00:09:19.519 --> 00:09:21.100 wrath anymore because they aren't running for 00:09:21.100 --> 00:09:22.980 reelection. They have nothing to lose. Nothing 00:09:22.980 --> 00:09:25.500 to lose. And if even one or two of them vote 00:09:25.500 --> 00:09:27.740 for impeachment as a sort of parting shot or 00:09:27.740 --> 00:09:30.139 just to clear their conscience, it becomes a 00:09:30.139 --> 00:09:33.059 bipartisan rebuke. And that's a headline the 00:09:33.059 --> 00:09:35.059 White House desperately wants to avoid. It would 00:09:35.059 --> 00:09:37.919 be deeply embarrassing for Noam. OK, so let's 00:09:37.919 --> 00:09:40.840 pause and look at the US side of the board. We 00:09:40.840 --> 00:09:43.279 have the House playing offense with impeachment. 00:09:43.639 --> 00:09:45.779 We have the Senate playing defense with a budget 00:09:45.779 --> 00:09:48.799 standoff. And we have the White House playing 00:09:49.049 --> 00:09:51.669 What time travel back to 2020? It's a picture 00:09:51.669 --> 00:09:54.950 of total internal obsession. Everyone is looking 00:09:54.950 --> 00:09:57.309 inward. Everyone is fighting over the scraps 00:09:57.309 --> 00:09:59.929 of power inside the Beltway. And this is where 00:09:59.929 --> 00:10:02.690 we have to switch screens because while we are 00:10:02.690 --> 00:10:05.710 obsessed with Fulton County ballots and ICE funding, 00:10:06.450 --> 00:10:09.509 the rest of the world. It isn't waiting. No, 00:10:09.529 --> 00:10:12.250 it's moving on. And this is the most critical 00:10:12.250 --> 00:10:14.450 part of today's deep dive. And it's the story 00:10:14.450 --> 00:10:16.769 getting the least amount of coverage. The mother 00:10:16.769 --> 00:10:19.230 of all trade deals. Ursula von der Leyen, the 00:10:19.230 --> 00:10:21.129 president of the European Commission, is in India 00:10:21.129 --> 00:10:23.129 right now. And she's not there for a photo op. 00:10:23.169 --> 00:10:25.730 She is finalizing a massive agreement between 00:10:25.730 --> 00:10:27.929 the EU and India. We're talking about a trade 00:10:27.929 --> 00:10:30.909 zone covering two billion people. Two billion 00:10:30.909 --> 00:10:33.690 people. Just think about the scale of that market 00:10:33.690 --> 00:10:35.990 for a second and notice who isn't in the room. 00:10:36.230 --> 00:10:38.960 The United States. We're completely cut out. 00:10:39.259 --> 00:10:40.879 Completely. And this is not an accident. This 00:10:40.879 --> 00:10:43.340 is the direct consequence of the America First 00:10:43.340 --> 00:10:46.500 policy, especially the tariffs. The source is 00:10:46.500 --> 00:10:49.940 very blunt about this. How so? Trump's unpredictability 00:10:49.940 --> 00:10:51.919 foreign leaders are reportedly referring to him 00:10:51.919 --> 00:10:54.899 as a mad king has forced the rest of the world 00:10:54.899 --> 00:10:58.019 to build an economic architecture that just doesn't 00:10:58.019 --> 00:11:00.379 rely on America anymore. I was really struck 00:11:00.379 --> 00:11:03.159 by the specific economic examples in the report. 00:11:03.600 --> 00:11:06.679 This isn't just abstract soft power. No, this 00:11:06.679 --> 00:11:09.299 is real money. It's German car manufacturers 00:11:09.299 --> 00:11:11.259 losing money in the U .S. market because of our 00:11:11.259 --> 00:11:14.299 tariffs. So what do they do? They don't just 00:11:14.299 --> 00:11:16.559 eat the loss. No, they pivot. They look at the 00:11:16.559 --> 00:11:18.539 map and they see India. They see South America. 00:11:18.639 --> 00:11:21.200 I mean, the EU just signed a deal with Mercosur, 00:11:21.360 --> 00:11:23.720 the South American trading bloc. They're offsetting 00:11:23.720 --> 00:11:26.379 their losses in the U .S. by opening up markets 00:11:26.379 --> 00:11:28.799 everywhere else. And that's the real danger, 00:11:28.860 --> 00:11:31.000 isn't it? Once those supply chains shift, they 00:11:31.000 --> 00:11:33.809 don't just snap back into place. Exactly. It 00:11:33.809 --> 00:11:36.129 takes years to build these relationships, these 00:11:36.129 --> 00:11:39.450 logistics. Once a German car company builds a 00:11:39.450 --> 00:11:42.629 factory in India or Brazil to serve those markets, 00:11:42.950 --> 00:11:44.509 they aren't going to shut it down just because 00:11:44.509 --> 00:11:46.730 the U .S. changes its mind four years from now. 00:11:46.769 --> 00:11:49.110 And it's not just manufacturing. It's the tech 00:11:49.110 --> 00:11:52.309 sector, too. The source mentioned European companies 00:11:52.309 --> 00:11:55.870 are prioritizing Airbus over Boeing, which is 00:11:55.870 --> 00:11:59.730 not new. Right. but they're also actively moving 00:11:59.730 --> 00:12:02.889 away from American software giants like Microsoft 00:12:02.889 --> 00:12:06.629 and Oracle over data privacy concerns. It's a 00:12:06.629 --> 00:12:08.710 decoupling. We talk a lot in Washington about 00:12:08.710 --> 00:12:10.649 decoupling from China, but what we are seeing 00:12:10.649 --> 00:12:13.210 here is the world decoupling from the United 00:12:13.210 --> 00:12:15.539 States. Wow. Indian Prime Minister Modi looks 00:12:15.539 --> 00:12:18.620 at the global board and he sees the EU as a stable, 00:12:18.980 --> 00:12:20.840 predictable partner. He knows what the rules 00:12:20.840 --> 00:12:22.860 are. As opposed to the US, where he has to worry 00:12:22.860 --> 00:12:25.320 about a sudden tweet changing the entire deal 00:12:25.320 --> 00:12:27.480 overnight. Precisely. There was a quote from 00:12:27.480 --> 00:12:29.399 a European diplomat in the source material that 00:12:29.399 --> 00:12:31.600 was just savage. What'd they say? They said, 00:12:31.919 --> 00:12:33.879 we cannot have the security of Europe depend 00:12:33.879 --> 00:12:37.059 on 4 ,000 voters in Wisconsin every four years. 00:12:37.379 --> 00:12:40.299 Oof. I mean, it hurts to hear, but can you blame 00:12:40.299 --> 00:12:42.620 them? You really can't. It's a rational calculation. 00:12:42.980 --> 00:12:44.919 They are hedging their bets against American 00:12:44.919 --> 00:12:48.580 instability and the cost to us. It isn't just 00:12:48.580 --> 00:12:52.340 prestige, it's markets. It's jobs. It's the dollar 00:12:52.340 --> 00:12:54.820 status as the reserve currency. It feels like 00:12:54.820 --> 00:12:57.759 we are sleepwalking into irrelevance while we 00:12:57.759 --> 00:12:59.779 argue about who gets to count the ballots in 00:12:59.779 --> 00:13:02.500 one county in Georgia. That is the danger. We 00:13:02.500 --> 00:13:05.340 are so focused on the internal fight, the hot 00:13:05.340 --> 00:13:07.879 potato, that we aren't even noticing the external 00:13:07.879 --> 00:13:10.500 walls going up all around us. Speaking of internal 00:13:10.500 --> 00:13:13.120 fights. We have to talk about the Democrats again. 00:13:13.360 --> 00:13:15.620 We touched on that popularism idea earlier. Yeah, 00:13:15.720 --> 00:13:18.559 doing what's popular. But there's a deeper identity 00:13:18.559 --> 00:13:21.419 crisis happening that explains why they struggle 00:13:21.419 --> 00:13:23.820 with that so much. There is. And we can kind 00:13:23.820 --> 00:13:25.600 of look at it through the lens of a specific 00:13:25.600 --> 00:13:28.000 race down in Florida. Alexander Vindman, you 00:13:28.000 --> 00:13:30.000 remember him? Of course. The impeachment witness, 00:13:30.379 --> 00:13:32.639 L .T. Curl Vindman. He's running for Senate in 00:13:32.639 --> 00:13:36.379 Florida against Ashley Moody. He is. And he raised 00:13:36.379 --> 00:13:40.690 $1 .7 million in 24 hours. That's a record -breaking 00:13:40.690 --> 00:13:43.250 number for a rollout. So the enthusiasm is there. 00:13:43.450 --> 00:13:46.690 The money is there. But the state is still... 00:13:46.539 --> 00:13:49.519 Solid Republican. Exactly. And this brings us 00:13:49.519 --> 00:13:51.940 to the analysis by Thomas Edsall and Noah Smith 00:13:51.940 --> 00:13:54.639 in our source deck. They argue that while individual 00:13:54.639 --> 00:13:56.879 candidates like Vindman can raise tons of cash 00:13:56.879 --> 00:13:59.779 from the base, the Democratic brand itself is 00:13:59.779 --> 00:14:02.600 deeply unpopular with the working class. The 00:14:02.600 --> 00:14:05.080 numbers on this were just staggering. Six in 00:14:05.080 --> 00:14:07.879 10 working class voters view the party negatively. 00:14:08.200 --> 00:14:10.100 And the authors did this linguistic analysis 00:14:10.100 --> 00:14:12.600 that I found so telling. Oh, the vocabulary shift. 00:14:12.759 --> 00:14:14.860 It's fascinating data. Tell me about it. They 00:14:14.860 --> 00:14:17.620 looked at Democratic messaging since 2012. Usage 00:14:17.620 --> 00:14:20.960 of words like equity went up over 700 percent. 00:14:21.159 --> 00:14:24.220 Usage of LGBT and related terms went up over 00:14:24.220 --> 00:14:26.019 a thousand percent. OK, so they're talking more 00:14:26.019 --> 00:14:28.120 about social justice. That makes sense. But look 00:14:28.120 --> 00:14:30.279 at what they stopped talking about. In that same 00:14:30.279 --> 00:14:32.659 period, usage of the word responsibility dropped 00:14:32.659 --> 00:14:35.860 83 percent. Usage of the phrase middle class 00:14:35.860 --> 00:14:39.419 dropped 79 percent. That is a massive drop. It 00:14:39.419 --> 00:14:42.820 just it paints a picture of a party that has 00:14:42.820 --> 00:14:46.039 shifted its focus. entirely to identity groups 00:14:46.039 --> 00:14:48.799 and away from these universal themes like duty 00:14:48.799 --> 00:14:51.019 and economics. And the perception among working 00:14:51.019 --> 00:14:53.740 class voters, and this is white, black, and Hispanic 00:14:53.740 --> 00:14:57.299 voters, is that the party is, to quote the source, 00:14:57.700 --> 00:15:00.600 woke, weak, and out of touch. They hear the language 00:15:00.600 --> 00:15:03.000 change and they feel excluded. There was a specific 00:15:03.000 --> 00:15:05.620 example given that really nailed this for me. 00:15:06.080 --> 00:15:08.679 It was about how President Biden announced his 00:15:08.679 --> 00:15:11.000 Supreme Court pick a few years ago. Right. He 00:15:11.000 --> 00:15:12.779 announced he would only consider a black woman 00:15:12.779 --> 00:15:14.659 for the seat. Now, to be clear, the critique 00:15:14.659 --> 00:15:16.759 isn't about picking a black woman. The candidate 00:15:16.759 --> 00:15:19.360 he picked was eminently qualified. The critique 00:15:19.360 --> 00:15:21.419 is about the framing. So if he had just said, 00:15:21.659 --> 00:15:23.039 I'm going to look at everyone and pick the best 00:15:23.039 --> 00:15:25.370 person and then. pick the exact same candidate. 00:15:25.629 --> 00:15:28.669 The message is excellence. It implies she beat 00:15:28.669 --> 00:15:31.549 out everyone else. But by ruling everyone else 00:15:31.549 --> 00:15:33.929 out beforehand, the message that so many voters 00:15:33.929 --> 00:15:35.850 heard, especially those working class voters 00:15:35.850 --> 00:15:38.110 the Democrats are hemorrhaging, was exclusion. 00:15:38.429 --> 00:15:40.570 It goes right back to that Searchlight Institute 00:15:40.570 --> 00:15:43.169 poll, doesn't it? Yeah. It's the difference between 00:15:43.169 --> 00:15:45.830 being an ideological movement and a political 00:15:45.830 --> 00:15:48.070 party. That is the fundamental tension right 00:15:48.070 --> 00:15:50.860 there. An ideological movement wants to change 00:15:50.860 --> 00:15:53.200 the language. It wants to change the culture. 00:15:53.659 --> 00:15:57.379 It prioritizes purity and correctness. But a 00:15:57.379 --> 00:15:59.320 political party's job is different. Completely 00:15:59.320 --> 00:16:02.000 different. Its job is to build a coalition big 00:16:02.000 --> 00:16:05.179 enough to win 50 % plus one of the vote. And 00:16:05.179 --> 00:16:07.080 to do that, you have to talk about things like 00:16:07.080 --> 00:16:10.570 the middle class and responsibility. So the analysis 00:16:10.570 --> 00:16:12.850 suggests they've become excellent at being a 00:16:12.850 --> 00:16:15.289 movement and increasingly bad at being a party. 00:16:15.509 --> 00:16:17.350 They are winning the argument on Twitter and 00:16:17.350 --> 00:16:20.149 losing the vote in Florida. So if we pull all 00:16:20.149 --> 00:16:23.789 of this together, if we look at that whole split 00:16:23.789 --> 00:16:26.529 screen. What are we really looking at? We're 00:16:26.529 --> 00:16:29.350 looking at a system under stress from every conceivable 00:16:29.350 --> 00:16:32.409 angle. You have a Republican party led by a figure 00:16:32.409 --> 00:16:34.850 who is so obsessed with the past, he's using 00:16:34.850 --> 00:16:37.190 the FBI to chase ghosts in Georgia. You have 00:16:37.190 --> 00:16:39.110 a Senate leadership that's terrified of his own 00:16:39.110 --> 00:16:42.090 base, which leads to total paralysis on the budget. 00:16:42.330 --> 00:16:44.789 And you have a Democratic party that is trying 00:16:44.789 --> 00:16:47.509 to figure out how to talk to normal people again 00:16:47.509 --> 00:16:49.850 without getting canceled by its own activists. 00:16:50.169 --> 00:16:52.590 And while all of this is happening, while we 00:16:52.590 --> 00:16:55.639 are gazing at our own navel, The global economy 00:16:55.639 --> 00:16:59.179 is being rewired by Europe and India to exclude 00:16:59.179 --> 00:17:03.019 us. It's a lot. It really is. It is. But that's 00:17:03.019 --> 00:17:05.619 why we do the deep dive. To see the whole board. 00:17:06.000 --> 00:17:07.599 Because if you only look at the headlines about 00:17:07.599 --> 00:17:10.039 the shutdown, you miss the trade deal. And if 00:17:10.039 --> 00:17:11.700 you only look at the trade deal, you miss the 00:17:11.700 --> 00:17:13.880 voter sentiment shifts that made that possible 00:17:13.880 --> 00:17:16.119 in the first place. And hopefully you realize 00:17:16.119 --> 00:17:19.690 that this game of hot potato has real... lasting 00:17:19.690 --> 00:17:21.789 consequences. The world isn't waiting for us 00:17:21.789 --> 00:17:23.990 to finish the game. That is the thought I want 00:17:23.990 --> 00:17:26.710 to leave you with today. If the U .S. continues 00:17:26.710 --> 00:17:29.490 to turn inward with trade wars and backward with 00:17:29.490 --> 00:17:32.650 election re -litigation, how long until America 00:17:32.650 --> 00:17:35.410 first actually results in America being last 00:17:35.410 --> 00:17:37.369 in the room where the decisions are made? It's 00:17:37.369 --> 00:17:38.829 a question we might be answering sooner than 00:17:38.829 --> 00:17:40.950 we think. Thanks for listening to the Deep Dive. 00:17:41.250 --> 00:17:41.930 We'll see you next time.