Welcome back to the deep dive. So we're looking
at a stack of sources today that at first glance
just looks like a mistake. It's a strange mix.
It really is. You've got a chemical attack on
a congresswoman, a 40 million dollar check from
Amazon to the first lady and a dispute over what
soccer. It feels disjointed. It does sound like
a mess, but I think the mission today is to show
that these aren't actually random, isolated events.
They're all symptoms of a very specific political
ecosystem we're living in. An ecosystem where
violence, corporate tribute payments, and legal
technicalities are all just... leverage points
in the same game. Exactly. It feels like we're
watching a split -screen movie. On one side,
you have Minneapolis, which is looking more and
more like a paramilitary zone. With federal agents
and tear gas, yeah. And on the other, you have,
what, champagne toasts at the White House with
Jeff Bezos' lieutenants? And the thread connecting
them is transaction. Everything is a deal, whether
it's trading voter rolls for peace or trading
a documentary deal for space funding. So we need
to connect those dots for you to see the bigger
picture of the 2026 landscape. Honestly, we have
to start with the deal that went wrong, the escalation
in Minneapolis. Yeah, we have to start there.
It feels like the temperature just broke the
thermometer. The headline that really grabbed
everyone was the attack on Representative Ilhan
Omar. She was at a town hall, you know, just
doing a standard event. And this guy rushes her.
Anthony James Kizmirsak. He rushed the stage
with a chemical spray. Thankfully, her security
was on it and she wasn't physically harmed, but
the intent was pretty clear. It's terrifying.
But what stuck out to me in the reading wasn't
just the attack itself. It was the immediate
reaction. Right. You'd expect, regardless of
party, a simple, this is bad, we condemn this.
But that's not what happened. President Trump's
reaction was to call Omar a fraud. And then he
actually floated the theory that she paid the
guy herself. Paid him to attack her to generate
sympathy. Which is, I mean, that's a heavy accusation
to just throw out there. It is, but it fits a
pattern we analyzed. It's this mirror image dismissal
of reality. When there's a right -wing protest
or attack, the narrative from one side is, these
are paid actors. And then when there are left
-wing protests in Minneapolis or Portland, the
opposing side claims those are paid actors. funded
by George Soros. Exactly. It's like nobody is
allowed to actually be angry on their own anymore.
Everyone has to be on a payroll. It just delegitimizes
the event itself. So you don't have to talk about
why it happened. If it's fake, you don't have
to address the root cause. Precisely. But while
the rhetoric is heating up, the actual actions
on the ground are getting legally very precarious.
We have to talk about the Ecuadorian consulate.
This one stopped me in my tracks. Federal ICE
agents trying to force their way into the Ecuadorian
consulate. in Minneapolis. First of all, why
is this such a red line? I know diplomatic community
is a thing in movies, but can you break down
the actual rules? Sure. It comes down to the
Vienna Convention. You have to think of a consulate
not as just a building in Minneapolis, but as
a sovereign island of Ecuadorian soil. So U .S.
law enforcement has no jurisdiction inside those
walls? None. Not without explicit permission.
So by trying to force their way in, they weren't
just serving a warrant, they were... Well, they
were essentially committing an act of aggression
against a foreign country. Wow. And that suggests
they're willing to risk a major international
incident to get at whatever or whoever is inside.
It seems like they're willing to break a lot
of China to get what they want in Minnesota.
Which brings us to this quid pro quo story. Right.
So we have reports of Attorney General Pam Bondi
telling the Minnesota Secretary of State Steve
Simon basically Give us the voter rolls and the
chaos stops. It was reportedly that stark. That
sounds less like politics and more like a protection
racket. Nice city you got here. Shame if something
happened to it. Yeah, yeah. But what they're
looking for in those rolls, it's about data mining.
The reports suggest they want to cross -reference
state voter data with federal immigration databases.
So they can find names on both lists, allege
non -citizens voting, and then launch a purge
before the 2026 midterms. That's the goal. So
they manufacture chaos, or at least they refuse
to de -escalate it to force the state to hand
over data, which they then use to shrink the
electorate. And Steve Simon refused. He did.
But in the middle of all this high -level maneuvering,
you've got the human cost, the Alex Priddy case.
The shooting that set this all off. And there's
new video. That's right. CNN and the AP released
it. It shows about six minutes of footage right
before the shooting, and it really contradicts
the official narrative. How so? The scene was
calm. Pretty was effectively just standing there.
Wait, I saw people online talking about him having
a broken rib from a fight with cops a week earlier.
That was everywhere. And that's the counter -narrative.
It turns out he did have a confrontation with
federal officers the week before where he was
tackled and injured. Supporters of the administration
are using that to paint him as a habitual agitator.
But what happened a week ago is irrelevant to
whether lethal force was justified in that moment.
From a legal and moral standpoint, yes. And the
new video suggests he wasn't violent when the
shooting started? So you have a calm scene turning
deadly, a diplomatic incident, and an extortion
attempt. It sounds like a total mess. Mess is
the key word, and that chaos is causing fractures
inside the White House. We're seeing a classic
shark tank scenario. OK. Stephen Miller, who's
been a primary architect of this hardline strategy,
is apparently being frozen out of the Minneapolis
discussions. Miller, frozen out? I thought he
was the guy behind the curtain for all this.
He was. But when things go wrong, you know, the
president tends to look for someone to blame.
So Miller, seeing the writing on the wall, tried
to pivot. And blame who? He's now blaming DHS
Secretary Kristi Noem. claiming her department
didn't follow proper protocol. The classic, I
didn't do it. She did it. Exactly. But no one
isn't taking it lying down. She's saying she
was just following direct orders from Miller
and Trump. So now she's in the hot seat. A very
hot seat. She just had a two hour meeting with
the president. And while he says she's doing
a good job, Democrats want to impeach her. And
even some GOP senators like Tillerson Murkowski
want her gone. It's fascinating how quickly they
turn on each other. But OK, I want to pivot now.
We're going from the streets of Minneapolis to
Hollywood. Hey yes, let's talk about Melania,
the documentary. This story blew my mind. Amazon
pays 40 million dollars for a documentary about
the First Lady, directed by Brett Ratner, of
all people. It is a staggering sum. That's the
highest figure ever paid for a dock distribution
deal. And get this. Twenty eight million of that
goes directly to Melania Trump. Forty million.
And this is a movie directed by a guy who was
basically canceled years ago and his last Trump
documentary. Totally flawed. It did. And by all
accounts, this new film is playing to empty theaters
in the UK. Amazon has even embargoed reviews
in the U .S. Which is never a good sign. It's
a sign they know it's not a masterpiece. So if
the movie's a dud and they overpaid. Why? Amazon
doesn't like throwing money away. This is where
you have to put on your lobbyist hat. If you
view this as a movie deal, you're right. It's
a disaster. But think about Amazon's vulnerabilities.
They're terrified of two things, antitrust regulation
and heavy handed AI regulation. Because the administration
could regulate their data centers into unprofitability.
Exactly. They need the administration to look
the other way. But even more specifically, look
at Jeff Bezos's other big venture, Blue Origin.
The space company. Right. There's about $20 billion
in annual space funding that the government hands
out. And Blue Origin wants a big slice of that
pie. I see where this is going. If you pay $40
million for a documentary, which is basically
a direct transfer of wealth to the first family,
and in return, you secure favorable AI regulation
and, say, a $2 billion contract for Blue Origin.
And that $40 million isn't a loss. It's the best
investment you've ever made. It's just the rapper.
It's lobbying disguised as content acquisition.
Tribute might be the word for it. I think so.
And the premiere was held at the White House.
Who is there? Amazon CEO Andy Jassy. Tim Cook
from Apple. Tim Cook. Apple usually tries to
stay out of this stuff. Well, Apple is terrified
of tariffs. They need to stay in the president's
good graces to keep their supply chain moving.
So they show up. They applaud. And. The timing
this premiere happened just hours after Alex
Brady was killed in Minneapolis. That's the dystopian
part. Champagne popping at the White House with
tech billionaires while a city is literally on
fire over a police shooting. It just highlights
the deep integration. It's not just about movies.
Amazon hosts the web servers for the ICE. databases.
And the DHS biometric system that holds data
on 270 million Americans. This is a fusion of
big tech infrastructure and federal law enforcement.
Which puts that quid pro quo voter roll demand
in a whole new light. If they get that data,
it's probably going right onto an Amazon server.
That's a very likely connection. It's a lot to
process. Usually this is where we say, at least
there's the game on Sunday. We look to sports
for an escape. I'm guessing we can't even do
that today. Unfortunately, yeah. The politics
are bleeding into the stadiums. The Super Bowl
is coming up. Seahawks versus Patriots in San
Francisco. And usually the president shows up,
right? Tries to look like a regular guy. But
Trump is skipping it. His official excuse is
that it's too far away. Too far? He has Air Force
One. San Francisco isn't that far. It's a weak
excuse. The speculation, and I think this is
solid, is that he knows he would be booed. Massively.
A stadium full of 70 ,000 people booing him on
live TV is an optic he can't afford. Especially
with the Minneapolis situation, it's a tough
look. But looking further out, to the World Cup.
We're hearing rumors of European boycotts. Is
that real? Or just noise? It's mostly noise.
We looked back at the history and countries almost
never skipped the World Cup over politics. Really?
Even with everything going on? Listen to this
list. 1934 World Cup. Fascist Italy under Mussolini.
1978. Argentina under a military junta that was
disappearing its own citizens. 2018 in Putin's
Russia. 2022 in Qatar. So the moral bar for FIFA
is basically underground. It seems so. Nations
rarely boycott over politics. They boycott over
logistics or direct war. So unless the US withdraws
from NATO and starts a war in Europe, the European
teams are going to show up. So the games will
go on. But the rules of the political game are
changing. We have to touch on the elections.
2026 is coming fast. And it sounds like the Democrats
just tripped over their own shoelaces in Virginia.
That's a charitable way to put it. It was a massive
unforced error. Democrats wanted to redraw the
district maps there to pick up about three congressional
seats. Right get rid of the old gerrymander.
But they messed up the timing. A judge blocked
the new maps because the law says you have to
vote on the changes before an election cycle
starts. They didn't vote until October after
early voting had already begun. Oops. Oops. Because
of that timing error, the current maps stay for
2026. That easy path to three seats is gone.
Such a waste. Check the calendar, guys. But Florida
seems a bit more hopeful for Democrats. Surprisingly,
yes. Florida's been trending red, but there's
an opening. The Senate seat held by Ashley Moody,
who was appointed, not elected. And appointees
are usually more vulnerable, right? Exactly.
And the Democrats have a new challenger who just
entered the race, Alexander Vindman. Vindman.
Wait, the whistleblower? The lieutenant colonel.
The very same. Retired lieutenant colonel, Iraq
war vet, central figure in the first Trump impeachment.
That is a fascinating choice. It is. Florida
is tough. But Vindman brings huge name recognition.
And more importantly, running him gives voters
a very specific chance to poke Trump in the eye.
It turns the election into a referendum. It makes
it personal. It does. And with the unrest over
ICE and Moody not being part of the powerful
Cuban voting bloc, there's a path. Analysts now
rate Florida as the eighth most likely Senate
seat to flip. That's significant. So let's pull
all this together. We've got a White House that
is chaotic and aggressive, but at the same time,
it's completely open for business. Exactly. If
you're Amazon, if you have 40 million dollars
for a documentary, you can buy. access and protection.
It's this weird mix of authoritarianism and transactional
capitalism. And meanwhile, the machinery of normalcy
just keep chugging along. Super Bowl happens.
The World Cup planning continues. The elections
proceed. Determined by procedural mistakes in
Virginia or celebrity candidates in Florida?
It's jarring. It feels like we're waiting for
the other shoe to drop, but maybe the shoes just
keep dropping one by one and we're just getting
used to the noise. Well, what's the one signal
you should really be watching next week beyond
all the noise? What's that? Watch the silence.
The silence. Look at who isn't speaking out.
We saw Tim Cook at the White House. We see Amazon
cutting checks. The silence of the corporate
class in the face of this institutional breakdown
is the loudest signal. It tells us they've decided
the chaos is profitable, or at least manageable.
That seems to be the bet they're making. They
are betting that the system won't break. It'll
just stretch to accommodate them. Which really
makes you wonder. We always ask, at what point
does the system break? But listening to this...
Maybe the system doesn't break. Maybe it just
adapts to a new, much uglier shape. And the question
for you is, if history shows the world will still
play soccer in a dictatorship and corporations
will pay millions to appease a leader, what is
the line that actually can't be crossed? Is there
one left? That is a heavy thought to leave you
with, but I think it's the right one. As you
watch the news this week, ask yourself, is this
the new normal? And are we okay with that? Indeed.
Thanks for diving deep with us today. Stay safe,
keep your eyes open, and we'll catch you on the
next one.