WEBVTT 00:00:00.000 --> 00:00:03.000 Welcome back to the Deep Dive. I have to say, 00:00:03.020 --> 00:00:06.940 looking at the stack of articles and reports 00:00:06.940 --> 00:00:09.220 we have for today, it feels like someone took 00:00:09.220 --> 00:00:11.679 a Tom Clancy novel, handed it to a satirist, 00:00:11.720 --> 00:00:14.099 and just said, make this as weird as possible. 00:00:14.240 --> 00:00:16.519 It is a pretty chaotic mix today. Yeah, we're 00:00:16.519 --> 00:00:18.500 looking at these geopolitical flashpoints that 00:00:18.500 --> 00:00:21.750 sound like, I don't know, bad jokes. They're 00:00:21.750 --> 00:00:23.949 being treated with deadly seriousness. And then 00:00:23.949 --> 00:00:25.769 there are these legal battles that feel more 00:00:25.769 --> 00:00:29.129 like reality TV. We have sources ranging from 00:00:29.129 --> 00:00:32.250 these very dry military logistics reports, which 00:00:32.250 --> 00:00:34.750 are surprisingly gripping, by the way. They really 00:00:34.750 --> 00:00:37.409 are. All the way to court filings from the Department 00:00:37.409 --> 00:00:39.750 of Justice and some very deep analysis on why 00:00:39.750 --> 00:00:42.670 people believe what they believe. And the headline 00:00:42.670 --> 00:00:46.850 that just completely derailed my morning, and 00:00:46.850 --> 00:00:48.929 I think probably everyone's morning, is this 00:00:48.929 --> 00:00:52.009 sudden intense obsession coming out of the White 00:00:52.009 --> 00:00:54.850 House with Greenland. Again, it feels like we've 00:00:54.850 --> 00:00:57.530 been here before, but the sources we polled are 00:00:57.530 --> 00:00:59.310 suggesting this isn't just a, wouldn't it be 00:00:59.310 --> 00:01:01.210 nice to own this kind of chat anymore? We are 00:01:01.210 --> 00:01:04.469 talking about actual military feasibility studies. 00:01:04.870 --> 00:01:07.519 Which sounds absurd on the face of it. But I 00:01:07.519 --> 00:01:09.819 think our mission today is really to look at 00:01:09.819 --> 00:01:12.200 the feasibility of these administration goals. 00:01:12.760 --> 00:01:16.040 Whether it's an Arctic invasion or a complete 00:01:16.040 --> 00:01:18.799 purge of the Justice Department, we kind of need 00:01:18.799 --> 00:01:22.599 to separate the political bluster from the logistical 00:01:22.599 --> 00:01:24.879 reality. Because when you look at the physics, 00:01:24.959 --> 00:01:27.799 the laws, the economics, that's where you see 00:01:27.799 --> 00:01:30.060 where the rubber meets the road. Or in this case, 00:01:30.099 --> 00:01:32.299 I guess, where the boots meet the ice. So let's 00:01:32.299 --> 00:01:35.140 unpack this whole Greenland scenario. Because 00:01:35.140 --> 00:01:39.219 on the surface, the idea of the U .S. militarily 00:01:39.219 --> 00:01:42.939 seizing Greenland, it sounds like the plot of 00:01:42.939 --> 00:01:44.799 a B movie. It really does. I mean, one of our 00:01:44.799 --> 00:01:47.299 sources literally describes the island as the 00:01:47.299 --> 00:01:50.359 world's biggest bowl of shaved ice. Yeah. But 00:01:50.359 --> 00:01:53.260 the administration is framing it as a critical 00:01:53.260 --> 00:01:55.700 strategic move. But the problem is? The problem 00:01:55.700 --> 00:01:58.000 is, when I looked at the military breakdown from 00:01:58.000 --> 00:02:01.340 our defense sources, the U .S. isn't just unprepared. 00:02:01.920 --> 00:02:05.310 We are. Laughably unprepared. Laughably unprepared 00:02:05.310 --> 00:02:07.829 might actually be an understatement. The sources 00:02:07.829 --> 00:02:10.509 are calling this potential operation Vietnam 00:02:10.509 --> 00:02:14.150 on Ice. The analysis shows that while the U .S. 00:02:14.189 --> 00:02:17.310 is a superpower, our entire military doctrine 00:02:17.310 --> 00:02:19.629 for the last, what, 30 years has been optimized 00:02:19.629 --> 00:02:22.810 for the desert. For heat, for sand. Exactly. 00:02:23.050 --> 00:02:26.129 Heat, sand, urban combat in dry environments. 00:02:26.409 --> 00:02:28.150 Right. And I was worrying about the equipment 00:02:28.150 --> 00:02:29.770 failures. I mean, it turns out you can't just 00:02:29.770 --> 00:02:32.569 take a tank designed for Iraq and drop it into 00:02:32.569 --> 00:02:35.509 negative 40 degree weather. Yo. The sources talk 00:02:35.509 --> 00:02:40.330 about hydraulic systems just freezing solid electronics, 00:02:40.990 --> 00:02:42.990 just giving up the ghost. It's basic physics. 00:02:43.169 --> 00:02:45.349 Steel becomes brittle at those temperatures. 00:02:45.590 --> 00:02:47.870 Batteries lose their charge in minutes. But the 00:02:47.870 --> 00:02:50.430 most glaring gap, and the one that really highlights 00:02:50.430 --> 00:02:53.810 the lack of foresight here, is the maritime capability. 00:02:54.050 --> 00:02:56.979 Oh, this stat. This blew my mind. I had to double 00:02:56.979 --> 00:02:58.819 check it because it just seemed impossible. I 00:02:58.819 --> 00:03:00.800 know the one you mean. The United States Navy, 00:03:01.120 --> 00:03:02.879 the most powerful Navy in the history of the 00:03:02.879 --> 00:03:06.719 world, has exactly one military icebreaker. Just 00:03:06.719 --> 00:03:09.979 one. And the source describes it as ancient and 00:03:09.979 --> 00:03:12.879 decrepit. It's ancient. And if that one ship 00:03:12.879 --> 00:03:15.620 breaks down, which, you know, old ships tend 00:03:15.620 --> 00:03:18.580 to do, there's no backup. You were literally 00:03:18.580 --> 00:03:22.780 stuck in the ice. And now compare that to the, 00:03:22.780 --> 00:03:25.319 let's say, opposing force in this hypothetical 00:03:25.319 --> 00:03:28.219 scenario. The Nordic allies? Right. Finland, 00:03:28.580 --> 00:03:32.139 Norway, Sweden, Canada, they operate a combined 00:03:32.139 --> 00:03:34.500 fleet roughly 10 times larger than the U .S. 00:03:34.699 --> 00:03:36.939 inventory. And these aren't just retrofitted 00:03:36.939 --> 00:03:40.080 ships. These are NATO -certified, purpose -built 00:03:40.080 --> 00:03:42.300 vessels for the Arctic. Exactly. It's like showing 00:03:42.300 --> 00:03:44.680 up to a Formula One race riding a unicycle. It 00:03:44.680 --> 00:03:47.560 is. And the personnel gap is just as bad. I saw 00:03:47.560 --> 00:03:50.060 the numbers. For US troops trained for Arctic 00:03:50.060 --> 00:03:52.419 warfare, it's something like 11 ,000 to 12 ,000. 00:03:52.560 --> 00:03:55.159 And most of them are in Alaska. Not exactly a 00:03:55.159 --> 00:03:57.300 quick hop to Greenland. Meanwhile, the European 00:03:57.300 --> 00:04:00.060 NATO allies have over 60 ,000 Arctic -trained 00:04:00.060 --> 00:04:02.659 troops ready to go. Wow. But look at Finland 00:04:02.659 --> 00:04:04.659 specifically. This is a country that has been 00:04:04.659 --> 00:04:06.819 preparing for Russian aggression for decades. 00:04:07.219 --> 00:04:09.860 They have a reserve force of nearly one million 00:04:09.860 --> 00:04:14.020 people with specific training for Lapland's sub 00:04:14.020 --> 00:04:16.639 -Arctic conditions. I've seen videos of those 00:04:16.639 --> 00:04:18.759 Finnish units. They aren't rolling around in 00:04:18.759 --> 00:04:21.899 heavy tanks. They're on skis. They move in silence. 00:04:21.939 --> 00:04:24.540 They know how to survive without supply lines 00:04:24.540 --> 00:04:27.759 in total whiteout conditions. It's a completely 00:04:27.759 --> 00:04:29.740 different kind of warfare. It reminds me of the 00:04:29.740 --> 00:04:32.620 Winter War in 1939. You know, the Soviet Union 00:04:32.620 --> 00:04:34.240 thought they could just roll over Finland with 00:04:34.240 --> 00:04:36.439 superior numbers, and they got absolutely dismantled 00:04:36.439 --> 00:04:38.980 by men on skis in the woods. History strongly 00:04:38.980 --> 00:04:41.139 suggests you do not fight the Finns in the snow. 00:04:41.819 --> 00:04:45.339 But even if we ignore the military suicide mission 00:04:45.339 --> 00:04:48.449 aspect of this for a second. OK. There's an economic 00:04:48.449 --> 00:04:50.810 weapon that the sources say is even more dangerous. 00:04:50.970 --> 00:04:53.189 This isn't just about shooting, it's about trade. 00:04:53.350 --> 00:04:55.889 Right, because if the U .S. aggressively moves 00:04:55.889 --> 00:04:58.689 on Greenland, which Denmark has said over and 00:04:58.689 --> 00:05:01.610 over they cannot and will not sell, it triggers 00:05:01.610 --> 00:05:03.829 a conflict with the entire European Union. And 00:05:03.829 --> 00:05:06.300 maybe China. I found this part fascinating because 00:05:06.300 --> 00:05:08.060 we always think of war in terms of missiles. 00:05:08.199 --> 00:05:10.600 Yeah. But the source points out that China and 00:05:10.600 --> 00:05:13.620 Europe hold vast amounts of US currency and treasury 00:05:13.620 --> 00:05:17.459 bonds. The nuclear option here isn't a bomb. 00:05:18.439 --> 00:05:21.660 It's dumping those bonds. OK, so let's break 00:05:21.660 --> 00:05:23.579 down what that actually means for, you know, 00:05:23.699 --> 00:05:26.800 for you listening, because dumping bonds sounds 00:05:26.800 --> 00:05:29.769 so abstract. It does. But if China and Europe 00:05:29.769 --> 00:05:32.569 decide to flood the market with U .S. treasuries 00:05:32.569 --> 00:05:35.189 to punish an invasion, the value of the dollar 00:05:35.189 --> 00:05:38.470 just collapses. And to find buyers for our debt, 00:05:38.930 --> 00:05:40.850 the U .S. would have to do what? You'd have to 00:05:40.850 --> 00:05:42.970 skyrocket interest rates. So overnight, we're 00:05:42.970 --> 00:05:44.970 not talking about a stock market dip. We're talking 00:05:44.970 --> 00:05:47.689 about mortgage rates hitting, what, 15 or 20 00:05:47.689 --> 00:05:50.389 percent? Or more. The cost of bread could triple. 00:05:50.930 --> 00:05:53.769 One source phrased it perfectly. It would trigger 00:05:53.769 --> 00:05:56.389 a depression that makes the 1930s look like a 00:05:56.389 --> 00:05:59.199 game of patty cake. So you have a military operation 00:05:59.199 --> 00:06:01.639 you can't physically do against an enemy that 00:06:01.639 --> 00:06:04.180 owns the environment, carrying an economic risk 00:06:04.180 --> 00:06:06.579 that would bankrupt the entire nation. And yet 00:06:06.579 --> 00:06:10.680 the administration is pressing forward. It really 00:06:10.680 --> 00:06:13.259 highlights this theme of will versus reality. 00:06:13.699 --> 00:06:16.160 There's a political will to do this, but the 00:06:16.160 --> 00:06:18.540 physical and economic reality is just a brick 00:06:18.540 --> 00:06:20.680 wall. Speaking of hitting brick walls, we should 00:06:20.680 --> 00:06:23.680 probably pivot from the Arctic to the Department 00:06:23.680 --> 00:06:26.620 of Justice. Because the chaos isn't just external, 00:06:26.839 --> 00:06:29.439 it's internal. And we're seeing the exact same 00:06:29.439 --> 00:06:33.439 pattern. Aggressive ambition colliding with the 00:06:33.439 --> 00:06:36.100 hard structure of the law. The situation with 00:06:36.100 --> 00:06:40.100 Attorney General Pam Bondi is, well, it's tense. 00:06:40.459 --> 00:06:42.019 I was looking at the polymarket betting odds 00:06:42.019 --> 00:06:44.500 this morning. Oh, yeah. Bondi is currently sitting 00:06:44.500 --> 00:06:47.740 at a 31 % chance of being the first cabinet member 00:06:47.740 --> 00:06:50.310 fired. That is incredibly high for someone who 00:06:50.310 --> 00:06:52.629 hasn't even been in the job that long. It is. 00:06:53.050 --> 00:06:55.589 The reporting suggests that despite being a loyalist, 00:06:56.050 --> 00:06:59.250 the president views her as weak. And the specific 00:06:59.250 --> 00:07:02.310 metric for that weakness is her failure to prosecute 00:07:02.310 --> 00:07:05.509 his political rivals, Letitia James and James 00:07:05.509 --> 00:07:07.730 Comey. It really feels like she's in a no -win 00:07:07.730 --> 00:07:10.610 scenario. She's being pushed to prosecute, but 00:07:10.610 --> 00:07:13.649 the cases just aren't there. So the DOJ is pivoting 00:07:13.649 --> 00:07:16.050 to this Minneapolis situation, trying to prove 00:07:16.050 --> 00:07:17.970 its loyalty. But then you have the story of Lindsay 00:07:17.970 --> 00:07:19.910 Halligan, which is, to be honest, one of the 00:07:19.910 --> 00:07:21.709 wildest things I've ever read in a legal briefing. 00:07:21.910 --> 00:07:24.129 So the Lindsay Halligan incident is the perfect 00:07:24.129 --> 00:07:26.129 example of the dysfunction. OK, walk us through 00:07:26.129 --> 00:07:28.529 it. She was acting as the US attorney for the 00:07:28.529 --> 00:07:31.329 Eastern District of Virginia, a massive critical 00:07:31.329 --> 00:07:35.029 jurisdiction. But here's the catch. She was never 00:07:35.029 --> 00:07:36.939 confirmed by the Senate. So she didn't have the 00:07:36.939 --> 00:07:38.699 appointment. She just showed up. It sounds like 00:07:38.699 --> 00:07:41.680 a Seinfeld plot. I work here now. Essentially, 00:07:41.920 --> 00:07:44.819 yes, she was executing the duties of the office 00:07:44.819 --> 00:07:47.360 without any legal authority to hold the office. 00:07:47.579 --> 00:07:50.930 And the system finally caught up. It did. A federal 00:07:50.930 --> 00:07:53.750 judge issued a formal order this week declaring 00:07:53.750 --> 00:07:56.310 that she was, and I'm quoting here, masquerading 00:07:56.310 --> 00:08:01.189 as a US attorney. Masquerading. That is a scathing 00:08:01.189 --> 00:08:03.509 word to see in a court order. It implies you're 00:08:03.509 --> 00:08:05.709 a child playing dress up. It's humiliating for 00:08:05.709 --> 00:08:08.930 the DOJ. And the consequences were instant. Halligan 00:08:08.930 --> 00:08:11.250 resigned yesterday. The sources say she's going 00:08:11.250 --> 00:08:14.209 back to practicing insurance law. Wow. But the 00:08:14.209 --> 00:08:16.850 bigger takeaway here is that the system has sort 00:08:16.850 --> 00:08:20.240 of antibodies. OK. Even if you install a fawning 00:08:20.240 --> 00:08:22.259 attorney general, you still have to deal with 00:08:22.259 --> 00:08:24.420 federal judges who have lifetime tenure. You 00:08:24.420 --> 00:08:26.339 still have to deal with grand juries who don't 00:08:26.339 --> 00:08:28.199 care about the president's Twitter feed. You 00:08:28.199 --> 00:08:31.100 can't tweet your way out of a court order. So, 00:08:31.220 --> 00:08:33.740 OK, we have a failed Arctic fantasy and a DOJ 00:08:33.740 --> 00:08:36.580 that's tripping over his own shoelaces. And yet, 00:08:37.159 --> 00:08:39.000 and this is the big question the sources pose, 00:08:39.639 --> 00:08:41.600 roughly 40 percent of the country is seemingly 00:08:41.600 --> 00:08:44.940 locked in. Their support just doesn't waver. 00:08:45.159 --> 00:08:47.659 This is the central paradox of the current moment, 00:08:47.799 --> 00:08:49.740 isn't it? How can you have this level of, let's 00:08:49.740 --> 00:08:53.379 say, incompetence and overreach, and yet the 00:08:53.379 --> 00:08:56.259 base remains solid? One of the sources uses this 00:08:56.259 --> 00:08:58.960 existential crisis framework to explain it. It's 00:08:58.960 --> 00:09:01.639 not that these voters don't see the chaos. It's 00:09:01.639 --> 00:09:04.159 that they view it as necessary. How so? To them, 00:09:04.460 --> 00:09:06.519 the border is the only thing stopping the U .S. 00:09:06.600 --> 00:09:09.259 from becoming, quote, north to Mexico. That phrase 00:09:09.259 --> 00:09:11.460 appears in the source material, and it's really 00:09:11.460 --> 00:09:13.820 key to understanding the mindset. If you believe 00:09:13.820 --> 00:09:16.100 your culture and your country are facing an extinction 00:09:16.100 --> 00:09:18.340 -level threat from migration... Then the president 00:09:18.340 --> 00:09:20.840 isn't just a politician. He's a Lincoln -esque 00:09:20.840 --> 00:09:23.320 wartime leader. And in war, you accept collateral 00:09:23.320 --> 00:09:26.080 damage. The source brings up the innocent woman 00:09:26.080 --> 00:09:29.480 killed by ICE in Minnesota. To an outsider, that's 00:09:29.480 --> 00:09:31.740 a horrific tragedy, a sign of a broken system. 00:09:32.000 --> 00:09:34.879 But if you're in that wartime mindset... It's 00:09:34.879 --> 00:09:37.240 just an unfortunate cost of doing business. Precisely. 00:09:37.519 --> 00:09:40.940 But we have to ask... Where does that wartime 00:09:40.940 --> 00:09:43.639 worldview... even come from? Because it's not 00:09:43.639 --> 00:09:46.440 organic, it's being manufactured. And this is 00:09:46.440 --> 00:09:48.820 where the data on media consumption gets really 00:09:48.820 --> 00:09:51.139 interesting. We always talk about Fox News, but 00:09:51.139 --> 00:09:53.179 the sources point out that Fox actually has a 00:09:53.179 --> 00:09:55.500 pretty small audience, you know, relative to 00:09:55.500 --> 00:09:58.159 the whole population. The real heavy hitter is 00:09:58.159 --> 00:10:01.639 local news, specifically a company called Sinclair 00:10:01.639 --> 00:10:04.340 Broadcast Group. Sinclair is the giant hiding 00:10:04.340 --> 00:10:08.480 and plain site. They operate 178 television stations 00:10:08.480 --> 00:10:11.509 across the country. reaching about 40 % of the 00:10:11.509 --> 00:10:14.429 U .S. population. Now, think about who watches 00:10:14.429 --> 00:10:17.230 local news. It's not political junkies. It's 00:10:17.230 --> 00:10:19.029 people checking the weather, the high school 00:10:19.029 --> 00:10:21.850 sports scores. But traffic. You trust the local 00:10:21.850 --> 00:10:23.470 anchor because they feel like your neighbor. 00:10:23.929 --> 00:10:26.169 But Sinclair has this mechanism called the must 00:10:26.169 --> 00:10:28.610 -run segment. I didn't realize how strict this 00:10:28.610 --> 00:10:31.409 was. These aren't suggestions. Corporate headquarters 00:10:31.409 --> 00:10:34.370 sends down a script, a pre -written editorial, 00:10:34.809 --> 00:10:37.230 and mandates that every single local station 00:10:37.230 --> 00:10:40.269 has to air it. So you have 178 different local 00:10:40.269 --> 00:10:43.289 anchors from Seattle to Baltimore looking into 00:10:43.289 --> 00:10:45.950 the camera and reading the exact same biased 00:10:45.950 --> 00:10:48.789 political talking points word for word. To the 00:10:48.789 --> 00:10:51.529 viewer, it feels like trusted local reporting, 00:10:52.210 --> 00:10:55.129 but it's actually centralized corporate propaganda. 00:10:55.649 --> 00:10:57.950 And it bypasses your skepticism because it comes 00:10:57.950 --> 00:11:00.529 from a familiar face. That's incredibly effective. 00:11:01.019 --> 00:11:03.500 and insidious. And then you layer on the digital 00:11:03.500 --> 00:11:05.740 side. We had a listener write in about their 00:11:05.740 --> 00:11:07.379 experience with the Facebook algorithm, and it 00:11:07.379 --> 00:11:10.580 was, it was chilling. What did they say? They 00:11:10.580 --> 00:11:12.240 noticed the platform wasn't just showing them 00:11:12.240 --> 00:11:15.399 news. It was actively nudging them towards specific 00:11:15.399 --> 00:11:18.259 narratives. Yay. The nudge is subtle. Right. 00:11:18.320 --> 00:11:20.320 The reader noted the algorithm began presenting 00:11:20.320 --> 00:11:23.440 stories that drew a direct and false equivalence 00:11:23.440 --> 00:11:25.600 between the killing of Renee Goode and Ashley 00:11:25.600 --> 00:11:28.299 Babbitt. Oh, wow. It's micro targeting an emotional 00:11:28.299 --> 00:11:31.279 response. It's designed to say, see, Both sides 00:11:31.279 --> 00:11:34.080 do it. It just flattens the context and shapes 00:11:34.080 --> 00:11:36.539 your reality without you even realizing. And 00:11:36.539 --> 00:11:38.419 this effect gets amplified because of what the 00:11:38.419 --> 00:11:40.860 sources call news deserts. This number shocked 00:11:40.860 --> 00:11:45.620 me. Since 2005, 3 ,500 newspapers have shut down 00:11:45.620 --> 00:11:48.259 in the United States. Which leaves 55 million 00:11:48.259 --> 00:11:50.460 Americans living in counties with essentially 00:11:50.460 --> 00:11:53.080 no local journalism, no watchdog. If there's 00:11:53.080 --> 00:11:54.919 no reporter sitting in the city council meeting 00:11:54.919 --> 00:11:57.080 asking where the budget went, that corruption 00:11:57.080 --> 00:11:59.690 just goes unnoticed. And that vacuum gets filled 00:11:59.690 --> 00:12:02.370 by the Sinclair scripts and the Facebook rage 00:12:02.370 --> 00:12:04.690 bait. So if you're in that 40 percent, you are 00:12:04.690 --> 00:12:06.750 living in an information equal system that is 00:12:06.750 --> 00:12:10.330 hermetically sealed. However, the other 60 percent 00:12:10.330 --> 00:12:12.690 isn't just sitting there. We are seeing significant 00:12:12.690 --> 00:12:14.730 pushback and it's happening in two very different 00:12:14.730 --> 00:12:17.090 ways. Right. You have the visible resistance, 00:12:17.429 --> 00:12:20.610 the protests and then the invisible political 00:12:20.610 --> 00:12:23.330 shifting. Let's talk visible first. The free 00:12:23.330 --> 00:12:25.789 America walkout. The media coverage has been 00:12:25.789 --> 00:12:28.389 mixed, but the photos. They tell a pretty big 00:12:28.389 --> 00:12:31.110 story. We saw images from Seattle with signs 00:12:31.110 --> 00:12:34.929 like Science Saves Lives and Defund IC. But the 00:12:34.929 --> 00:12:37.629 standout for me was Chicago. The no -kings rally 00:12:37.629 --> 00:12:39.950 in Grant Park, the police estimates, and the 00:12:39.950 --> 00:12:42.830 aerial shots put that crowd at over 300 ,000 00:12:42.830 --> 00:12:45.990 people. For context, that is comparable to the 00:12:45.990 --> 00:12:48.190 crowd that gathered for Obama's victory speech 00:12:48.190 --> 00:12:51.690 in 2008. That is not a small fringe group. No. 00:12:52.029 --> 00:12:54.970 That is a massive mobilization of people physically 00:12:54.970 --> 00:12:57.809 taking up space to say no. It is. But there's 00:12:57.809 --> 00:13:00.049 a fascinating debate happening inside this movement. 00:13:00.570 --> 00:13:02.169 And one of our listeners from Huntington Beach 00:13:02.169 --> 00:13:04.769 brought this up. It's the voting versus marching 00:13:04.769 --> 00:13:07.950 argument. OK. The listener pointed to the Vietnam 00:13:07.950 --> 00:13:10.909 War era. We remember the protests, the peace 00:13:10.909 --> 00:13:13.769 signs, the Woodstock vibe. But historically, 00:13:14.009 --> 00:13:16.230 the war didn't end because of a march. It ended 00:13:16.230 --> 00:13:18.710 because the voters eventually punished the politicians 00:13:18.710 --> 00:13:21.070 who supported it. Exactly. The argument is that 00:13:21.070 --> 00:13:24.429 the invisible work organizing, knocking on doors, 00:13:24.669 --> 00:13:27.710 the boring stuff is actually more powerful than 00:13:27.710 --> 00:13:30.169 the spectacle of a rally. And we are actually 00:13:30.169 --> 00:13:32.100 seeing proof of that in Texas right now. The 00:13:32.100 --> 00:13:34.759 Texas Senate race is becoming, I think, the most 00:13:34.759 --> 00:13:37.159 interesting election in the country. If you want 00:13:37.159 --> 00:13:39.340 to see if that fortress of support has cracks, 00:13:39.620 --> 00:13:42.860 you look at Texas. Specifically, the Democratic 00:13:42.860 --> 00:13:45.559 primary between James Talarico and Jasmine Crockett. 00:13:46.379 --> 00:13:49.240 The momentum shift here is just wild. What are 00:13:49.240 --> 00:13:52.080 the numbers? Back in September, Talarico was 00:13:52.080 --> 00:13:56.039 down by 18 points. He was getting crushed. Now. 00:13:56.649 --> 00:13:59.509 The latest Emerson poll has him leading by nine 00:13:59.509 --> 00:14:02.210 points. That's a twenty seven point swing in 00:14:02.210 --> 00:14:04.710 just a few months. That kind of swing is so rare 00:14:04.710 --> 00:14:07.649 in modern politics. It suggests that Telerico's 00:14:07.649 --> 00:14:11.009 campaign strategy, which is very focused on rural 00:14:11.009 --> 00:14:13.549 outreach and kitchen table issues, not just the 00:14:13.549 --> 00:14:15.909 national culture war stuff, is resonating the 00:14:15.909 --> 00:14:18.309 invisible work. And meanwhile, on the Republican 00:14:18.309 --> 00:14:20.750 side in Texas. it looks like a complete civil 00:14:20.750 --> 00:14:23.529 war. You have John Cornyn, the incumbent senator, 00:14:23.690 --> 00:14:26.509 the establishment guy, and he is deadlocked with 00:14:26.509 --> 00:14:29.070 Ken Paxton, the attorney general, who is basically 00:14:29.070 --> 00:14:31.929 the face of the Magier wing in Texas. They're 00:14:31.929 --> 00:14:35.129 pulling at 28 % and 27%. It is a statistical 00:14:35.129 --> 00:14:37.090 tie. And then you have Wesley Hunt sitting there 00:14:37.090 --> 00:14:40.269 with 16%. basically playing Kingmaker. This is 00:14:40.269 --> 00:14:42.490 significant because Cornyn should be cruising 00:14:42.490 --> 00:14:44.470 to re -election. The fact that he's fighting 00:14:44.470 --> 00:14:47.029 for his political life against Paxton shows the 00:14:47.029 --> 00:14:49.129 Republican base is fractured. They are eating 00:14:49.129 --> 00:14:51.830 their own. It tells me that even in deep red 00:14:51.830 --> 00:14:55.690 states, there is no monolith. The fortress isn't 00:14:55.690 --> 00:14:58.250 as impenetrable as the national narrative suggests. 00:14:58.429 --> 00:15:00.970 Exactly. When you zoom in to the state level, 00:15:01.149 --> 00:15:03.230 you see the end fighting. You see these massive 00:15:03.230 --> 00:15:06.289 swings in polling. You see voters actually changing 00:15:06.289 --> 00:15:08.450 their minds. It brings us back to that theme 00:15:08.450 --> 00:15:12.309 of will versus reality. The national narrative, 00:15:12.769 --> 00:15:16.090 the will, says the country is locked in, immovable. 00:15:16.399 --> 00:15:19.440 But the reality on the ground in Texas or Chicago 00:15:19.440 --> 00:15:22.419 shows a very dynamic, very volatile situation. 00:15:22.820 --> 00:15:24.620 So let's try to pull all of these threads together. 00:15:24.799 --> 00:15:26.899 We've gone from the freezing logistics of Greenland 00:15:26.899 --> 00:15:29.980 to the masquerading attorneys in Virginia to 00:15:29.980 --> 00:15:32.139 the massive crowds in Chicago and the polling 00:15:32.139 --> 00:15:34.740 booths in Texas. What's the big picture here? 00:15:35.000 --> 00:15:36.720 I think the three line is that we're witnessing 00:15:36.720 --> 00:15:39.919 the limits of narrative. Go on. You can create 00:15:39.919 --> 00:15:41.960 a narrative that the U .S. can take Greenland, 00:15:41.980 --> 00:15:44.019 but you can't fake the icebreakers. You can create 00:15:44.019 --> 00:15:45.639 a narrative that your attorney general is all 00:15:45.639 --> 00:15:47.899 -powerful, but you can't fake the judge's order. 00:15:48.179 --> 00:15:51.159 And you can try to curate public opinion with 00:15:51.159 --> 00:15:53.960 algorithms, but eventually people walk out into 00:15:53.960 --> 00:15:56.460 the street or into a voting booth and reality 00:15:56.460 --> 00:15:59.480 asserts itself. That's it. We are watching a 00:15:59.480 --> 00:16:02.659 collision between a constructed reality fed by 00:16:02.659 --> 00:16:05.289 corporate scripts and bots and the physical, 00:16:05.450 --> 00:16:07.889 legal, and political reality of the world. And 00:16:07.889 --> 00:16:10.570 reality usually wins in the end, though it can 00:16:10.570 --> 00:16:12.830 be a messy process. It really makes you rethink 00:16:12.830 --> 00:16:15.769 the whole concept of public opinion. I want to 00:16:15.769 --> 00:16:17.409 leave everyone with this thought, going back 00:16:17.409 --> 00:16:20.590 to that news deserts, Dad. Okay. If 55 million 00:16:20.590 --> 00:16:23.610 Americans have no local newspaper, no one watching 00:16:23.610 --> 00:16:25.809 the city council, and their view of the world 00:16:25.809 --> 00:16:28.029 is being curated by an algorithm designed to 00:16:28.029 --> 00:16:31.470 make them angry, is public opinion even real 00:16:31.470 --> 00:16:34.190 anymore? Or is it just a reflection of who owns 00:16:34.190 --> 00:16:36.429 the code? That is the question of the decade. 00:16:36.950 --> 00:16:39.330 If we can't agree on the basic facts, like whether 00:16:39.330 --> 00:16:41.509 a ship works or whether a lawyer is actually 00:16:41.509 --> 00:16:44.110 hired, we can't share a democracy. It's a lot 00:16:44.110 --> 00:16:46.350 to process, I know. But that's why we do this. 00:16:46.769 --> 00:16:48.490 Don't just take our word for it. Click the links 00:16:48.490 --> 00:16:50.570 in the show notes. Read the Sinclair Report yourself. 00:16:50.889 --> 00:16:52.750 Look at the military specs. It's an eye -opener. 00:16:52.929 --> 00:16:55.350 Stay curious, everyone. Stay informed.