WEBVTT

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Welcome back to the deep dive. It is Tuesday,

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January 20th, 2026. And honestly, when you look

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at the sheer volume of reports and data we have

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on the desk today, it really feels like we're

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reading a history chapter as it's being written.

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Oh, absolutely. The ink is still wet on this

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one. And if I had to give this chapter a title

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based on our sources, it would have to be something

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like. the era of unintended consequences. That's

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the exact theme that kept jumping out at me.

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We usually focus on the big action, right? The

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executive order, the big speech. But today, our

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mission is, well, it's a little different. We're

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not looking at the actions so much as the reactions.

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Exactly. We are looking at a massive realignment.

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The sources cover this huge shift in global trade

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with the EU and China. Some... frankly startling

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data from Leiden University of American Innovation.

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Startling is the right word. And a domestic political

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landscape that's shifting in ways we haven't

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seen in, what, almost two decades. It's a lot

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to unpack. We have trade wars that seem to be

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backfiring, a war on universities that might

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be a war on our own economy, and this strange

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implosion of the digital town square. So the

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goal here is to connect those dots, to understand

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how these aggressive moves, whether it's a tariff

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or a funding cut, are triggering chain reactions

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that might just leave the U .S., well, standing

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alone. And based on the hard data, that room's

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getting quieter by the day. So let's start with

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the big headline grabber, the one that sounds

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like it was ripped from a 19th century diary,

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but is happening right now, Greenland. Right.

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The Greenland ultimatum. I still can't quite

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wrap my head around this. The sources are clear.

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President Trump is back on the Buy Greenland

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idea. But this isn't just an offer anymore, is

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it? No, and that's the crucial shift. The analysis

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points out it's moves from, let's say, a transactional

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offer to a full -blown pressure campaign because

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Denmark and the local Greenland government pushed

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back, which under international law is their

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absolute right. Of course. Trump has reverted

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to his standard playbook. Financial punishment?

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Precisely. We're talking about a unilateral 10

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% tariff on eight specific allies. Eight allies.

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As of February 1st, exports from Denmark, Finland,

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France, Germany, the Netherlands, Norway, Sweden,

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and the UK, a 10 % levy. And the threat is that

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it climbs to 25 % in June if the U .S. doesn't

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own Greenland. Which is just wild, and you can

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see the immediate reaction in the reports. Protests

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in Nuuk, the capital of Greenland, people chanting

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Kalalatnet. Land of the Greenlanders. Right?

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Shouting, Yankee, go home! It's a very visceral

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reaction. But here's the thing. In the past,

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allies would grumble, maybe file a WTO complaint,

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and then kind of fall in line because, you know,

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where else would they go? That's the only game

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-in -town theory, and it held up for about 70

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years. I don't know anymore. But our sources

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today show that this era is effectively over.

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European leaders aren't just protesting, they're

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pivoting. They are playing what analysts are

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calling the China card. This part of the reading

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really stood out. It's not just talk. We're seeing

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European leaders literally booking flights to

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Beijing. It's a literal cue. Macron from France

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has already been. Ireland's Michael Martin was

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just there. The UK's Keir Starmer and Germany's

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Friedrich Merz are scheduled. They are explicitly

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looking for trade deals to get out from under

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the thumb of the US. So let me get this straight.

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By trying to bully them into selling Greenland,

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we're actually pushing our closest NATO allies

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into an economic embrace with our biggest strategic

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rival. That is the textbook definition of an

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unintended consequence. And the scale of this

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is what's alarming. Just look at the deal the

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EU just finalized with Mercosur. The South American

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trade bloc. Yes. Brazil, Argentina, Uruguay,

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the whole group. The EU just signed a treaty.

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creating a free trade zone of several hundred

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million people. Wow. It helps European industrial

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exports, cars and machinery in exchange for South

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American food. And the U .S. is? Completely on

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the outside looking at. So that's 700 million

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people trading freely and we're not invited because

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we're busy putting tariffs on Danish butter.

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And it's not just true. I saw a note about Canada

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that was really surprising. Prime Minister Mark

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Carney. Now. He's a pragmatist, a former central

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banker. He sees the writing on the wall. He's

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cut a specific deal with Xi Jinping. Canada lowers

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tariffs on Chinese electric cars. Which the US

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is trying desperately to block. Right. And in

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exchange, China slashes tariffs on Canadian canola

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oil. Canola for cars. So specific. It's transactional,

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it's pragmatic, and it completely bypasses the

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United States. Yeah. Carney even described his

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relationship with Chinese officials as realistic

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and respectful. A clear contrast. It feels like

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the world is building a workaround for the U

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.S. But the EU is also building defenses. The

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report mentioned something called the anti -coercion

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instrument. What is that? Think of it less like

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a lawsuit and more like a trade bazooka. A bazooka.

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OK. It's a legal mechanism they developed for

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this exact moment. If Trump pushes too hard,

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the EU can trigger this instrument. It allows

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them to restrict U .S. investments. But here's

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the nuclear option. It lets them suspend intellectual

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property protections for U .S. companies. Whoa,

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hang on. Suspend IP protections. So if a U .S.

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drug company have a patent or a tech company,

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Europe could just say, no, that's open source

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now. In theory, yes. In response to economic

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coercion, they could just stop enforcing those

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patents. For an economy like ours, built on tech

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and pharma, that is terrifying. OK, so that's

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the global stage. We're seeing isolation. But

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let's pivot to the domestic front because this

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isolation isn't just geographic, it's intellectual.

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The so -called brain drain. And this is arguably

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more damaging in the long run than any tariff.

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We are looking at a systematic dismantling of

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the American university system's edge. The report

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calls it a war on universities. Now, most people

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hear that and they think, you know, culture wars,

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DEI statements, campus debates. And that's a

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surface level fight for sure. The administration

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is cutting funding. We saw Johns Hopkins lose

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$800 million in layoff 2000 staff. That's a huge

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hit. But the source argues we need to look past

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those headlines to the historical reality. Which

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is what? The argument is that U .S. dominance.

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The Civil War industrial base, the WWII war machine,

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the internet. The internet, right. That didn't

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come from a phone company. Exactly. AT &T turned

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it down. It was ARPANET developed at universities

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like MIT and UCLA with government grants. The

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point is, by attacking these institutions, you

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aren't owning the libs. You're destroying the

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engine of American superiority. And we have data

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that shows this is happening right now. The Leiden

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University rankings. I'm looking at the chart

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and the difference between 2012 and 2025 is,

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it's shocking. It is a complete inversion. Just

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over a decade ago, 2012, the top spots for scientific

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impact were MIT, Princeton, Harvard, Rice, Stanford,

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all American. And now 2025. The top two are Zhejiang

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University and Shanghai Jiao Tong University.

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Both Chinese. Both. Harvard has slipped to number

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three. The rest of the top ten is almost all

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Chinese universities. The only other American

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school hanging on is UC San Francisco at number

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ten. That is a staggering shift. How did we lose

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that lead so fast? It's a pincer movement. On

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one side, China is pouring billions into research.

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On the other, the U .S. is cutting funding and,

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just as importantly, blocking visas. The visa

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issue seems huge. If you're the smartest student

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in Bangalore or Berlin, why would you come here

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if you might get kicked out? You don't. That's

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the simple answer. You go to London or Toronto.

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The source mentions a specific innovation from

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the Tianjin Institute to illustrate what we're

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missing out on. They've figured out how to create

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starch from carbon dioxide. Wait, say that again?

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They're turning air into food? Essentially, yes.

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It bypasses photosynthesis. That is the kind

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of moonshot breakthrough solving food security

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and carbon capture at once. That happens when

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you fund basic science. Yeah. And right now,

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it's happening there. Not here. There was a personal

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story in the source material that really drove

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home the soft power loss. The expert just called

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V talked about his time in the Netherlands. Yes,

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he helped set up programs for Eastern European

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students to come to Dutch universities after

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the Berlin Wall fell. Those students didn't just

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learn engineering, they learned to like the West.

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They went home and became diplomats and business

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leaders with a real personal connection. That

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is soft power. It's building relationships on

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a generational scale. Exactly. And when we block

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foreign students or make them feel unwelcome,

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we are just losing their tuition. We're burning

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the diplomatic bridges of the year 2040. It's

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cutting off your nose to spite your face. OK,

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so we have global trade chaos and an innovation

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drain. Let's look at the mood here at home. You'd

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think a strongman approach might energize the

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base, right? Play well domestically. The data

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says the opposite. We have the latest Gallup

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numbers on party ID, and they show a historic

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shift. Unpack those for us. Well, American politics

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is usually a game of inches. But right now, the

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Democrats have opened up an eight point lead

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in party identification, 48 percent to 40 percent.

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That's the largest gap since 2009. Eight points.

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That's a landslide in modern politics. What's

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driving it? The analysis suggests a severe case

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of buyer's remorse. The argument is that Trump's

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2024 win was personal. It was about him, about

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voters disliking the alternative, and about believing

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his promises on prices. And now that prices aren't

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falling, partly because of those tariffs you

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just talked about, the bill is coming due. Exactly.

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The economic pain is real and the blame is landing

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on the party and power. But it's not just the

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voters. It's the politicians who tried to play

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the game. This brings us to the the bully parable

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of Senator Bill Cassidy. This story is just,

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it's a tragedy. It is a classic tragedy, yes.

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Bill Cassidy is a medical doctor. He knows vaccines

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work. Yet when the vote came to confirm RFK Jr.

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a known vaccine skeptic to HHS, Cassidy voted

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yes. He compromised his professional ethics to

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please the president, bent the knee. He thought

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if he appeased the bully, he'd be safe. But that's

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not how it works. Despite his vote, Trump still

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endorsed Julia Letlo to run against Cassidy in

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the primary. And the kicker? The kicker is that

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because Louisiana shifted to a closed primary,

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Cassidy, the incumbent, is almost certainly going

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to lose his seat. So he's sold out his principles

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and lost his job anyway. It's a stark lesson.

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You can't negotiate for safety when the other

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side demands total submission. And speaking of

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fighting for jobs, let's talk about the raw mechanics

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of power. We've got some map games in Virginia

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that might just flip the house. Redistricting.

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The dark art of American politics. Virginia's

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new map, well, The analysis suggests three Republican

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incumbents are in very serious trouble. Who are

00:10:40.809 --> 00:10:43.450
we talking about? Jen Kiggins, Rob Whitman, and

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John McGuire. The new lines are very likely to

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flip those seats blue. But it's not just about

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map lines. It's about timing. We're seeing this

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tit for tat on special elections. The Abbott

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versus Newsom standoff. Right. So previously,

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Texas Governor Greg Abbott delayed filling a

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Democratic seat for months to keep their numbers

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down. Now the shoe is on the other foot. A Republican

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seat in California opened up Doug LaMalfa's seat,

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and Governor Gavin Newsom is playing hardball.

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He's delaying the special election until August

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of 2026. August. That's almost the entire term.

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It denies Speaker Mike Johnson that vote for

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seven months. And when the House margin is this

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thin, we're talking 218 Republicans to 214 Democrats.

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Every single seat matters. A delay like that

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can freeze the entire legislative agenda. It

00:11:28.399 --> 00:11:30.100
sounds like the gears of government are being

00:11:30.100 --> 00:11:32.580
deliberately jammed with sand. And while that's

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happening, the digital square X seems to be imploding.

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Yeah, the promise was that it would be a haven

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for conservative speech. But the report details

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a massive exodus of high -profile conservatives.

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The Vic Ramaswamy leaving really surprised me.

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He was all in. He said it was a warped reality.

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And Rahim Kassam, a former Breitbart editor,

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called it a cesspool. The problem seems to be

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that the algorithm has been tweaked to promote

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outrage over actual policy discussion. The source

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mentioned Christopher Ruffo clashing with Candice

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Owens as a perfect example of this. Exactly.

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Ruffo is a policy guy. He wants to win elections,

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change laws. Owens is a media personality who

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wants clicks. The algorithm overwhelmingly favors,

00:12:14.320 --> 00:12:17.399
to use Ruffo's term, the lunatics over the strategists.

00:12:17.879 --> 00:12:20.440
It's fracturing them, right? Not uniting it.

00:12:20.659 --> 00:12:23.120
And then there's the bot issue, location tags.

00:12:23.279 --> 00:12:26.039
Oh, that backfired spectacularly. When X enabled

00:12:26.039 --> 00:12:28.000
location visibility, it revealed that a huge

00:12:28.000 --> 00:12:30.100
number of the most aggressive MAGA accounts were

00:12:30.100 --> 00:12:32.080
actually operating out of Russia. So the voice

00:12:32.080 --> 00:12:34.659
of the people was a server farm in St. Petersburg.

00:12:35.220 --> 00:12:37.379
Basically, yes. And that creates that warped

00:12:37.379 --> 00:12:39.600
reality Ramaswami was talking about. You think

00:12:39.600 --> 00:12:41.519
you're arguing with your neighbor, but you're

00:12:41.519 --> 00:12:43.919
actually arguing with a Russian script designed

00:12:43.919 --> 00:12:47.600
to make you angry. So if we step back. Let's

00:12:47.600 --> 00:12:50.620
try to summarize this. We have trade allies leaving

00:12:50.620 --> 00:12:53.539
us for China. We have our top universities sliding

00:12:53.539 --> 00:12:56.019
down the rankings. We have a political party

00:12:56.019 --> 00:12:59.580
shrinking and eating its own. And our main communication

00:12:59.580 --> 00:13:03.279
platform is overrun with bots and infighting.

00:13:03.480 --> 00:13:06.600
It paints a clear picture of isolation and internal

00:13:06.600 --> 00:13:11.059
fracture. The aggressive America first approach

00:13:11.059 --> 00:13:14.000
is resulting in an America that is increasingly

00:13:14.899 --> 00:13:17.220
It brings us right back to unintended consequences.

00:13:17.440 --> 00:13:19.100
You play the tough guy, you flip over the table,

00:13:19.159 --> 00:13:21.000
and eventually people just go find another table

00:13:21.000 --> 00:13:23.159
to sit at. Precisely. They adapt, they find new

00:13:23.159 --> 00:13:24.840
partners, they build their own starch -from -air

00:13:24.840 --> 00:13:26.639
technology. And that leads to the final question

00:13:26.639 --> 00:13:28.460
I think you need to sit with today. Because this

00:13:28.460 --> 00:13:30.379
isn't just about politics, it's about survival.

00:13:30.799 --> 00:13:33.820
It is. And the question is this. If the United

00:13:33.820 --> 00:13:36.799
States continues to push away its military allies,

00:13:37.120 --> 00:13:39.779
its economic partners, its smartest foreign students,

00:13:39.980 --> 00:13:43.899
and its own moderate politicians, when the next

00:13:43.899 --> 00:13:47.899
true global crisis hits, a pandemic, a war, an

00:13:47.899 --> 00:13:50.980
economic collapse, who exactly is left in the

00:13:50.980 --> 00:13:52.960
room with us? That is a chilling thought. It's

00:13:52.960 --> 00:13:55.340
easy to break things, much harder to build them

00:13:55.340 --> 00:13:57.080
back when you really need them. And right now,

00:13:57.100 --> 00:13:59.039
that room is getting very empty. We're going

00:13:59.039 --> 00:14:01.470
to leave it there. A lot to think about. Thanks

00:14:01.470 --> 00:14:03.570
for listening to this deep dive. Stay curious.

00:14:03.669 --> 00:14:04.250
See you next time.
