WEBVTT 00:00:00.000 --> 00:00:03.319 OK, let's jump in. For today's deep dive, we're 00:00:03.319 --> 00:00:05.000 really putting our sources under the microscope. 00:00:05.240 --> 00:00:07.219 We're trying to figure out the why behind the 00:00:07.219 --> 00:00:09.960 headlines, not just the what. Right. Our mission 00:00:09.960 --> 00:00:11.980 here is to zoom in on the political motivations, 00:00:12.099 --> 00:00:15.300 to really look at some of the strategic misfires 00:00:15.300 --> 00:00:17.480 in these high stakes games. To see if there are 00:00:17.480 --> 00:00:20.579 any genuine life signs coming out of institutional 00:00:20.579 --> 00:00:22.760 Washington. It's a dive that's really designed 00:00:22.760 --> 00:00:25.820 to give you a more useful framework for. for 00:00:25.820 --> 00:00:27.780 prediction, really. And we have a pretty complex 00:00:27.780 --> 00:00:30.140 stack of sources today. It covers everything 00:00:30.140 --> 00:00:32.960 from, I mean, the psychology of political decision 00:00:32.960 --> 00:00:36.000 making to a really frightening eyewitness account 00:00:36.000 --> 00:00:39.399 of enforcement tactics. And then we'll get into 00:00:39.399 --> 00:00:41.939 a forensic breakdown of a special counsel's testimony. 00:00:42.039 --> 00:00:44.159 And finally, look at some signs that Congress 00:00:44.159 --> 00:00:47.219 might be remembering that it has power. So we 00:00:47.219 --> 00:00:50.170 have some big questions right at the top. Where 00:00:50.170 --> 00:00:52.789 does a political figure choose to fight and where 00:00:52.789 --> 00:00:54.789 do they decide to back down? And what happens 00:00:54.789 --> 00:00:57.969 when raw politics just smashes head on into, 00:00:57.969 --> 00:01:00.710 you know, quiet professionalism? And I think 00:01:00.710 --> 00:01:04.150 the big one, maybe the most important, is the 00:01:04.150 --> 00:01:06.829 legislative branch in D .C. finally showing signs 00:01:06.829 --> 00:01:08.569 that it's, you know, ready to stand up for itself 00:01:08.569 --> 00:01:10.659 again. We're starting right there, actually, 00:01:10.760 --> 00:01:13.439 with that tension. We're looking at an apparent 00:01:13.439 --> 00:01:16.900 contradiction in behavior. The sources we reviewed 00:01:16.900 --> 00:01:19.659 present this really surprising theory that helps 00:01:19.659 --> 00:01:22.599 explain when a powerful political figure fights 00:01:22.599 --> 00:01:26.129 to the bitter end versus when they just... cut 00:01:26.129 --> 00:01:29.109 their losses. Right, and this is the core framework 00:01:29.109 --> 00:01:31.650 we want you, the listener, to really grab onto. 00:01:31.969 --> 00:01:34.810 The sources argue he often backs down on some 00:01:34.810 --> 00:01:37.409 issues, but then on others. Never, he never surrenders. 00:01:37.510 --> 00:01:39.730 And it looks completely contradictory from the 00:01:39.730 --> 00:01:42.930 outside. But the distinction, they argue, it's 00:01:42.930 --> 00:01:45.030 actually pretty clear. It's all about the motivation. 00:01:45.349 --> 00:01:48.670 Exactly. When an issue is economic, you know, 00:01:48.890 --> 00:01:51.409 policy -related tariffs, what we can call the 00:01:51.409 --> 00:01:54.150 business side, he often backs down. OK. And the 00:01:54.150 --> 00:01:56.469 sources show this usually happens when, you know, 00:01:56.609 --> 00:01:58.909 the big time business tycoons and the senior 00:01:58.909 --> 00:02:01.370 Republican operatives, when they step in. So 00:02:01.370 --> 00:02:04.030 the motivation for listening there is what? A 00:02:04.030 --> 00:02:06.590 respect for money. That's the theory. It's a 00:02:06.590 --> 00:02:08.849 fundamental respect for the ability to make money, 00:02:08.969 --> 00:02:11.430 to accumulate capital. It's a language he understands. 00:02:11.629 --> 00:02:13.969 But then the moment an issue becomes personal. 00:02:14.139 --> 00:02:16.000 It's a totally different ballgame. When it's 00:02:16.000 --> 00:02:21.060 about revenge or ego or validation, he holds 00:02:21.060 --> 00:02:24.159 firm every single time. And the list is long. 00:02:24.659 --> 00:02:26.819 The sources point to the obsession with Hillary 00:02:26.819 --> 00:02:30.419 Clinton's evils, the Barack Obama birth certificate 00:02:30.419 --> 00:02:32.460 thing, that Sharpie weather map. Oh, the weather 00:02:32.460 --> 00:02:35.319 map? The 2020 election, of course, and this constant 00:02:35.319 --> 00:02:37.960 drive to get a Nobel Peace Prize. So if we take 00:02:37.960 --> 00:02:40.139 that framework and apply it to the situation 00:02:40.139 --> 00:02:43.259 in Minneapolis, where does it fall? Well, the 00:02:43.259 --> 00:02:45.319 analysis we reviewed puts it squarely in the 00:02:45.319 --> 00:02:47.620 personal column. The sources claim the motivation 00:02:47.620 --> 00:02:50.240 is really rooted in a deep personal animosity. 00:02:50.419 --> 00:02:52.819 Towards who? Towards figures like Governor Tim 00:02:52.819 --> 00:02:55.699 Walz, who's DFL, and Representative Ilhan Omar. 00:02:56.099 --> 00:02:58.340 And it's coupled with this desire to prove a 00:02:58.340 --> 00:03:00.520 point, to validate the narrative that federal 00:03:00.520 --> 00:03:04.319 force, you know, ICE, is needed to police so 00:03:04.319 --> 00:03:07.699 -called failing blue cities. That framework... 00:03:08.470 --> 00:03:10.909 feels pretty compelling. I mean, he seems predictive, 00:03:11.289 --> 00:03:12.870 but let me just play devil's advocate for a second. 00:03:13.289 --> 00:03:16.250 What about the Fed chair, Jerome Powell? The 00:03:16.250 --> 00:03:19.189 sources tag that as both business, I mean, it's 00:03:19.189 --> 00:03:22.770 interest rates and personal. The desire to dominate, 00:03:23.090 --> 00:03:25.439 doesn't that just muddy the water? It does. It 00:03:25.439 --> 00:03:27.659 complicates it, but that complexity is actually 00:03:27.659 --> 00:03:29.560 part of the framework's strength. It predicts 00:03:29.560 --> 00:03:31.340 that when both motivations are present, you get 00:03:31.340 --> 00:03:34.939 a prolonged, messy fight. If it were purely business, 00:03:35.240 --> 00:03:37.219 Powell would have been gone. But because it's 00:03:37.219 --> 00:03:41.000 both, the fight is just. It's protracted, it's 00:03:41.000 --> 00:03:43.340 destructive, and it's still ultimately about 00:03:43.340 --> 00:03:45.840 control and validation. So it's a useful lens, 00:03:45.939 --> 00:03:47.879 even when the answer isn't simple. Understood. 00:03:48.340 --> 00:03:51.439 OK. Back to Minnesota then. The escalation there 00:03:51.439 --> 00:03:55.039 is genuinely worrying. The sources mentioned 00:03:55.039 --> 00:03:56.960 the threat to invoke the Insurrection Act. Which 00:03:56.960 --> 00:03:59.539 would allow for even more militarization. The 00:03:59.539 --> 00:04:02.240 analysis we read described that move as, and 00:04:02.240 --> 00:04:05.060 this is a quote, pouring gas all over the fire, 00:04:05.300 --> 00:04:07.879 not trying to manage it. And we have to talk 00:04:07.879 --> 00:04:09.819 about the human impact of this. I mean, our sources 00:04:09.819 --> 00:04:14.629 included this truly shilling eyewitness account 00:04:14.629 --> 00:04:17.029 of what this enforcement looks like on the ground. 00:04:17.149 --> 00:04:19.209 Yeah, this was provided by a reader in St. Paul 00:04:19.209 --> 00:04:22.230 identified as DG. DG was in Richfield, Minnesota. 00:04:22.629 --> 00:04:25.269 They were at a community press conference for 00:04:25.269 --> 00:04:28.430 ISAA. That's a faith -based social justice group. 00:04:28.970 --> 00:04:30.569 And residents were sharing stories about the 00:04:30.569 --> 00:04:33.550 intense ICE presence. And right after that conference, 00:04:33.709 --> 00:04:36.329 DG and their family literally ran straight into 00:04:36.329 --> 00:04:40.069 an active ICE operation. And the details. It 00:04:40.069 --> 00:04:42.600 happened in broad daylight. in front of a major 00:04:42.600 --> 00:04:45.399 gas station and a busy bus stop with, what, maybe 00:04:45.399 --> 00:04:47.819 50 people just watching. Yes, and the sources 00:04:47.819 --> 00:04:50.620 detail masked men who grabbed someone right off 00:04:50.620 --> 00:04:53.060 the bus platform. They violently shoved the person 00:04:53.060 --> 00:04:55.920 into a waiting van. And crucially, DG notes the 00:04:55.920 --> 00:04:58.459 men gave zero identification. They didn't say 00:04:58.459 --> 00:05:00.199 a word. The whole thing was over in less than 00:05:00.199 --> 00:05:02.740 a minute. Just, boom, done. And the community 00:05:02.740 --> 00:05:05.100 members immediately started using whistles, getting 00:05:05.100 --> 00:05:06.920 their phones out, you know, alerting others to 00:05:06.920 --> 00:05:09.860 what they saw as just pure lawlessness. DG's 00:05:09.860 --> 00:05:12.980 account just highlights this palpable atmosphere 00:05:12.980 --> 00:05:15.139 of fear. They said there's been a frightening 00:05:15.139 --> 00:05:17.079 uptick in these kinds of incidents since the 00:05:17.079 --> 00:05:19.180 murder of Renee Goode. Right, which had already 00:05:19.180 --> 00:05:21.980 raised tensions. And they also saw video footage 00:05:21.980 --> 00:05:24.339 where an agent actually threatened a protester 00:05:24.339 --> 00:05:26.680 asking, did you learn nothing from what happened? 00:05:26.800 --> 00:05:28.860 That statement, I mean, it suggests a terrifying 00:05:28.860 --> 00:05:31.519 environment where agents feel completely empowered 00:05:31.519 --> 00:05:34.199 to act outside of normal constraints. So this 00:05:34.199 --> 00:05:36.759 whole analysis, this idea that you can predict 00:05:36.759 --> 00:05:39.720 action based on whether the motive is personal 00:05:39.720 --> 00:05:44.199 ego or rational business, that's highly valuable 00:05:44.199 --> 00:05:45.959 for you. It helps you anticipate where the real 00:05:45.959 --> 00:05:48.379 fights are going to be. And speaking of missteps, 00:05:48.680 --> 00:05:53.300 let's pivot from personal motivation to a major 00:05:53.300 --> 00:05:55.720 tactical failure. We're moving on to the Jack 00:05:55.720 --> 00:05:58.220 Smith deposition. Yes, a complete shift in gears, 00:05:58.279 --> 00:06:00.959 but it's the same theme of miscalculation. This 00:06:00.959 --> 00:06:02.920 was meant to be a political ambush. Right, the 00:06:02.920 --> 00:06:05.209 House Judiciary Committee. led by Representative 00:06:05.209 --> 00:06:07.949 Jordan, subpoenas former special counsel Jack 00:06:07.949 --> 00:06:11.110 Smith. And Smith doesn't fight it, which is interesting 00:06:11.110 --> 00:06:14.649 in itself. He agrees, but he offers to testify 00:06:14.649 --> 00:06:17.750 publicly under oath in front of all the cameras. 00:06:18.050 --> 00:06:21.069 But Jordan says no to that. Instead, he insists 00:06:21.069 --> 00:06:24.370 on a closed door deposition on December 17th, 00:06:24.410 --> 00:06:26.360 and the source has called it immediately. They 00:06:26.360 --> 00:06:28.899 said this was gonna be an unforced error. A huge 00:06:28.899 --> 00:06:30.899 one. I mean, they were clearly hoping for some 00:06:30.899 --> 00:06:32.740 gotcha sound bites so they could selectively 00:06:32.740 --> 00:06:36.459 leak, but they broke two cardinal rules of trial 00:06:36.459 --> 00:06:38.600 law. Which are? You never ask a question you 00:06:38.600 --> 00:06:40.959 don't already know the answer to, and you always, 00:06:40.959 --> 00:06:43.860 always vet your witness. They went in completely 00:06:43.860 --> 00:06:47.399 blind. And Smith just... completely confounded 00:06:47.399 --> 00:06:50.339 them. The sources describe him as the total opposite 00:06:50.339 --> 00:06:53.079 of what they expected. He was professional, deeply 00:06:53.079 --> 00:06:55.939 committed to the rule of law, and just rigidly 00:06:55.939 --> 00:06:58.939 apolitical. He stayed calm, answered these loaded 00:06:59.199 --> 00:07:01.740 Frankly, absurd questions without tripping up, 00:07:01.860 --> 00:07:03.779 without getting angry. He was the picture of 00:07:03.779 --> 00:07:05.759 a career prosecutor. The political theater just 00:07:05.759 --> 00:07:07.899 didn't register. And for a committee that's driven 00:07:07.899 --> 00:07:10.779 almost entirely by politics, that kind of professionalism 00:07:10.779 --> 00:07:14.220 was baffling and damaging. The proof that it 00:07:14.220 --> 00:07:16.579 was a disaster for them came when they released 00:07:16.579 --> 00:07:19.379 the transcript in the video, right? On New Year's 00:07:19.379 --> 00:07:22.819 Eve, two days before a major international news 00:07:22.819 --> 00:07:25.329 event. It's the oldest trick in the book for 00:07:25.329 --> 00:07:27.709 burying bad news. So let's get into the actual 00:07:27.709 --> 00:07:30.949 aha moments from the testimony. Smith confirmed 00:07:30.949 --> 00:07:33.389 he approached this case no differently than any 00:07:33.389 --> 00:07:35.350 other political corruption case he handled at 00:07:35.350 --> 00:07:38.410 the DJ. Just business as usual, but with a very 00:07:38.410 --> 00:07:40.430 unusual subject. And then they tried to frame 00:07:40.430 --> 00:07:42.970 it, you know, as just another disputed election, 00:07:43.329 --> 00:07:46.740 comparing it to... 1876 or 2000. And Smith just 00:07:46.740 --> 00:07:49.819 shut that down with a crystal clear legal rebuttal. 00:07:49.939 --> 00:07:53.100 He said, and this is a quote, there is no historical 00:07:53.100 --> 00:07:56.379 analog for what Trump did. Wow. That's a powerful 00:07:56.379 --> 00:07:58.480 statement from a man whose whole career is based 00:07:58.480 --> 00:08:00.860 on precedent. It really is. And on the question 00:08:00.860 --> 00:08:03.420 of guilt, he made this key legal distinction. 00:08:03.540 --> 00:08:06.040 He said the private admissions, you know, the 00:08:06.040 --> 00:08:08.259 I can't believe I lost to this effing guy stuff 00:08:08.259 --> 00:08:11.040 were actually less important than the corroborating 00:08:11.040 --> 00:08:13.550 evidence they got from his own allies. The ones 00:08:13.550 --> 00:08:15.730 who chose to put country over party. And he gave 00:08:15.730 --> 00:08:18.949 an example, right? He did. He mentioned Mark 00:08:18.949 --> 00:08:21.589 Meadows' comment about Jordan himself being scared 00:08:21.589 --> 00:08:24.230 on January 4th. It showed the incredible command 00:08:24.230 --> 00:08:27.129 of the facts his team had. So why does that distinction 00:08:27.129 --> 00:08:29.649 matter so much? Because private admissions can 00:08:29.649 --> 00:08:32.450 be spun, they can be contested, but testimony 00:08:32.450 --> 00:08:35.490 from allies who were in the room who later distanced 00:08:35.490 --> 00:08:38.370 themselves? That's much, much harder to dismiss. 00:08:38.950 --> 00:08:41.710 It proves the case was built on hard facts, not 00:08:41.710 --> 00:08:44.149 just whispers. And what about the phone records 00:08:44.149 --> 00:08:45.929 of representatives when they asked him about 00:08:45.929 --> 00:08:48.850 that? His answer was chilling. He basically said, 00:08:49.169 --> 00:08:51.750 I didn't choose the targets. The political figure 00:08:51.750 --> 00:08:54.049 chose who to call to try and delay the certification. 00:08:54.730 --> 00:08:57.490 Smith ended by saying. Trump should be held accountable. 00:08:57.870 --> 00:08:59.889 He also confirmed he considered not bringing 00:08:59.889 --> 00:09:02.549 an indictment at all. Right. And he only moved 00:09:02.549 --> 00:09:04.590 forward when he was absolutely sure of the evidence, 00:09:04.830 --> 00:09:07.029 beyond a reasonable doubt. He even noted, to 00:09:07.029 --> 00:09:09.509 underscore how hard it was, that he'd never had 00:09:09.509 --> 00:09:11.970 to present a case to a grand jury three times 00:09:11.970 --> 00:09:14.090 before. And throughout all of this, he was completely 00:09:14.090 --> 00:09:16.769 professional. But there was one moment he showed 00:09:16.769 --> 00:09:19.519 emotion. Yes, when they talked about the injustice 00:09:19.519 --> 00:09:22.059 of targeting his team and the law enforcement 00:09:22.059 --> 00:09:24.779 people involved, he talked about career FBI agents 00:09:24.779 --> 00:09:27.500 losing their jobs. He mentioned one man who was 00:09:27.500 --> 00:09:30.139 fired just two weeks after his wife died. That 00:09:30.139 --> 00:09:34.100 human cost. It stands in such stark contrast 00:09:34.100 --> 00:09:36.639 to all the political maneuvering. It does. And 00:09:36.639 --> 00:09:38.740 as for the future, when they asked him about 00:09:38.740 --> 00:09:41.279 political retribution, he just said, I will not 00:09:41.279 --> 00:09:43.720 be intimidated. The sources also point out the 00:09:43.720 --> 00:09:46.039 strategic corner the committee was in. Because 00:09:46.039 --> 00:09:48.279 of Judge Cannon's injunction, Smith couldn't 00:09:48.279 --> 00:09:50.500 answer some questions. Which likely explains 00:09:50.500 --> 00:09:52.679 why they later invited him to a public hearing. 00:09:53.120 --> 00:09:55.460 They timed it so he would probably be unable 00:09:55.460 --> 00:09:58.080 to answer, setting him up to look evasive in 00:09:58.080 --> 00:10:00.340 front of the cameras. Just classic political 00:10:00.340 --> 00:10:02.759 theater trying to undermine a real institution. 00:10:02.980 --> 00:10:06.220 OK, before we jump into part three and the legislature 00:10:06.220 --> 00:10:08.460 finding its footing, let's do our fun fact. The 00:10:08.460 --> 00:10:11.899 pop quiz answer is Gandhi, the 1982 movie. Gandhi. 00:10:12.110 --> 00:10:15.389 It was the last mainstream U .S. released film 00:10:15.389 --> 00:10:19.649 to have an intermission. A real throwback. OK, 00:10:19.649 --> 00:10:22.149 now let's move into these signs of institutional 00:10:22.149 --> 00:10:24.870 pushback. For a long time, Congress has been 00:10:24.870 --> 00:10:27.610 called, you know, an obedient lapdog. But the 00:10:27.610 --> 00:10:29.889 sources are suggesting that the legislative branch 00:10:29.889 --> 00:10:34.549 is maybe slowly starting to remember it's a co 00:10:34.549 --> 00:10:36.929 -equal branch of government from Article One 00:10:36.929 --> 00:10:38.929 of the Constitution. And we're seeing some of 00:10:38.929 --> 00:10:41.690 that institutional rust start to flake off. It 00:10:41.690 --> 00:10:43.909 starts small. Look at Senate Majority Leader 00:10:43.909 --> 00:10:45.990 John Thune's photo op at the southern border 00:10:45.990 --> 00:10:47.990 with a bunch of Republican candidates. Right. 00:10:48.230 --> 00:10:50.509 The sources critique this pretty heavily, saying 00:10:50.509 --> 00:10:52.649 it seemed like an odd choice when voters are 00:10:52.649 --> 00:10:54.529 mostly worried about, you know, affordability. 00:10:54.710 --> 00:10:57.370 Why not a photo op at a supermarket talking about 00:10:57.370 --> 00:10:59.870 high prices? It's a great example of being politically 00:10:59.870 --> 00:11:02.470 tone deaf. But we saw some genuine defiance, 00:11:02.669 --> 00:11:04.409 too, with the Venezuela intervention vote. We 00:11:04.409 --> 00:11:07.889 did. Senator Tim Kaine's resolution to ban military 00:11:07.889 --> 00:11:10.799 action there without Congress's approval. It 00:11:10.799 --> 00:11:13.419 actually passed the motion to debate, 52 to 47. 00:11:13.480 --> 00:11:15.419 And five Republicans crossed the aisle for that. 00:11:15.639 --> 00:11:18.399 Which in itself was a huge deal, an act of legislative 00:11:18.399 --> 00:11:21.179 muscle memory. But then, for the final vote, 00:11:21.620 --> 00:11:24.200 the White House lobbying machine went into overdrive. 00:11:24.480 --> 00:11:27.779 And it worked. It did. Senators Hawley and Young 00:11:27.779 --> 00:11:30.539 flipped their votes, which put Senator J .D. 00:11:30.639 --> 00:11:33.759 Vance in this very awkward position of casting 00:11:33.759 --> 00:11:36.159 the tie -breaking vote to kill it. Despite all 00:11:36.159 --> 00:11:38.519 his claims of being a non -interventionist. Exactly. 00:11:38.700 --> 00:11:41.240 And you had Rand Paul capturing the gravity of 00:11:41.240 --> 00:11:43.639 it all saying, make no mistake, bombing another 00:11:43.639 --> 00:11:46.559 nation's capital is an act of war, plain and 00:11:46.559 --> 00:11:49.720 simple. Even though it failed, the attempt itself 00:11:49.720 --> 00:11:52.320 was significant. And his defiance wasn't just 00:11:52.320 --> 00:11:54.980 on foreign policy. No, you had internal Republican 00:11:54.980 --> 00:11:57.720 dissent over that idea to purchase Greenland. 00:11:58.240 --> 00:12:00.860 An unnamed Republican was quoted saying, the 00:12:00.860 --> 00:12:03.000 amateurs who proposed it should lose their jobs. 00:12:03.320 --> 00:12:06.059 Which the source translated as what? As a direct 00:12:06.059 --> 00:12:09.360 call for Stephen Miller to be fired. Wow. And 00:12:09.360 --> 00:12:11.940 the Senate also took that direct symbolic shot 00:12:11.940 --> 00:12:14.720 at the president by voting to display the plaque 00:12:14.720 --> 00:12:17.519 honoring law enforcement from January 6th. A 00:12:17.519 --> 00:12:19.659 very deliberate move. They took it out of storage 00:12:19.659 --> 00:12:22.159 to display it prominently, knowing the executive 00:12:22.159 --> 00:12:24.940 branch reportedly disliked it as a reminder of 00:12:24.940 --> 00:12:28.639 that day. We also saw the executives' grip slipping 00:12:28.639 --> 00:12:32.019 on domestic issues. The attempts to override 00:12:32.019 --> 00:12:34.529 those two vetoes. On the Miccosukee Tribe lands 00:12:34.529 --> 00:12:37.350 in Florida and the Colorado water pipeline, they 00:12:37.350 --> 00:12:40.250 failed. But look at the defections. 24 Republicans 00:12:40.250 --> 00:12:42.889 on the Florida bill, 35 on the Colorado one. 00:12:43.049 --> 00:12:44.929 Those numbers are really hard to ignore. And 00:12:44.929 --> 00:12:47.710 then there's Voice of America or Vivo. The administration 00:12:47.710 --> 00:12:50.090 has repeatedly tried to defund it, saying it 00:12:50.090 --> 00:12:52.509 costs too much. Though the sources suggest the 00:12:52.509 --> 00:12:56.110 real reason is a belief that Viva is left -wing 00:12:56.110 --> 00:12:59.149 propaganda. Right. But Congress clearly sees 00:12:59.149 --> 00:13:01.590 it as a fantastic bargain for promoting American 00:13:01.590 --> 00:13:04.340 ideals. So you have a bipartisan bill to fund 00:13:04.340 --> 00:13:07.419 it at $643 million. It's just four times what 00:13:07.419 --> 00:13:09.419 the administration asked for. Exactly. That's 00:13:09.419 --> 00:13:12.360 not just a disagreement. That is a loud, clear 00:13:12.360 --> 00:13:14.679 signal of legislative resistance. OK, let's wrap 00:13:14.679 --> 00:13:16.820 this part up with that very high profile moment 00:13:16.820 --> 00:13:19.700 of international flattery. the Nobel Peace Prize. 00:13:20.179 --> 00:13:22.919 Maria Carina Machado of Venezuela visits the 00:13:22.919 --> 00:13:25.759 White House and gives the president her Nobel 00:13:25.759 --> 00:13:28.440 medal. And the analysis in the source had a great 00:13:28.440 --> 00:13:31.500 line for this. It did. It called it a very high 00:13:31.500 --> 00:13:34.679 profile version of shiny beads and shallow flattery. 00:13:34.799 --> 00:13:37.059 Machado's motivation was purely tactical. To 00:13:37.059 --> 00:13:39.720 keep the leader friendly to her interests, maybe 00:13:39.720 --> 00:13:42.679 back her or her pick Edmundo Gonzalez as the 00:13:42.679 --> 00:13:45.049 next leader of Venezuela. And the sources noted 00:13:45.049 --> 00:13:47.730 that giving away the physical medal is, you know, 00:13:47.929 --> 00:13:50.250 pretty trivial compared to the actual honor or 00:13:50.250 --> 00:13:52.309 the prize money. And he was genuinely impressed 00:13:52.309 --> 00:13:55.029 by it. It appeared to be, yes, linking it to 00:13:55.029 --> 00:13:58.330 other sort of non -substantive awards he's gotten. 00:13:59.129 --> 00:14:01.090 We also have to note the irony of the social 00:14:01.090 --> 00:14:03.350 media post about it. Which used all the correct 00:14:03.350 --> 00:14:05.990 accents on the foreign name. Suggesting he definitely 00:14:05.990 --> 00:14:08.330 did not write it himself. So what are the plausible 00:14:08.330 --> 00:14:10.669 outcomes here, according to the sources? There 00:14:10.669 --> 00:14:13.720 are two. Either he feels like he has a Nobel 00:14:13.720 --> 00:14:16.799 now and will stop doing reckless things to try 00:14:16.799 --> 00:14:20.379 and win one for real. Or, conversely, he now 00:14:20.379 --> 00:14:23.620 sees Machado as his favorite and will actively 00:14:23.620 --> 00:14:26.159 work to clear out the current Venezuelan regime 00:14:26.159 --> 00:14:31.620 to install her or her proxy in power. So we'd 00:14:31.620 --> 00:14:33.360 circle all the way back to the beginning. What 00:14:33.360 --> 00:14:36.320 the sources show us today is this really complex, 00:14:36.600 --> 00:14:40.509 contradictory dynamic. You've got this immense 00:14:40.509 --> 00:14:43.950 centralized power, driven almost entirely by 00:14:43.950 --> 00:14:45.889 personal emotion, whether it's Minneapolis or 00:14:45.889 --> 00:14:48.350 Nobel flattery, and it's running head first into 00:14:48.350 --> 00:14:51.730 this slow grinding resistance. The resistance 00:14:51.730 --> 00:14:53.789 of objective law, like we saw with Jack Smith 00:14:53.789 --> 00:14:56.009 and this emergent legislative independence we're 00:14:56.009 --> 00:14:58.529 seeing in the Senate. The key insight here for 00:14:58.529 --> 00:15:00.610 you is that predictability isn't always about 00:15:00.610 --> 00:15:03.299 policy. It's often about pathology. Right. If 00:15:03.299 --> 00:15:05.539 you can figure out if the motivation is money 00:15:05.539 --> 00:15:08.220 and business or if it's personal validation and 00:15:08.220 --> 00:15:10.600 revenge, you have a pretty solid framework for 00:15:10.600 --> 00:15:12.360 what's coming next. And we saw that framework 00:15:12.360 --> 00:15:14.460 hold up today, even when a political stunt like 00:15:14.460 --> 00:15:17.120 the Smith deposition just failed spectacularly. 00:15:17.120 --> 00:15:19.360 Because they completely underestimated the integrity 00:15:19.360 --> 00:15:22.259 of a career professional. And we've seen Congress 00:15:22.259 --> 00:15:25.700 flexing its muscles, challenging vetoes, defying 00:15:25.700 --> 00:15:28.419 the administration on funding, even with something 00:15:28.419 --> 00:15:31.659 symbolic like the January 6 plaque. So the question 00:15:31.659 --> 00:15:33.539 for you to really think about, building on everything 00:15:33.539 --> 00:15:35.679 we've covered, is whether these actions are just 00:15:35.679 --> 00:15:38.600 isolated acts of defiance. You know, nervous 00:15:38.600 --> 00:15:40.740 senators trying to survive the next election. 00:15:41.139 --> 00:15:44.299 Or do they signal something more? A lasting return 00:15:44.299 --> 00:15:46.519 to independence for the legislative branch. That 00:15:46.519 --> 00:15:49.379 struggle between this ego -driven executive power 00:15:49.379 --> 00:15:52.720 and a slowly reawakening legislative body, that's 00:15:52.720 --> 00:15:54.799 something worth watching very, very closely.