WEBVTT

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Welcome back to The Deep Dive. And before we

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get started, just a quick note on the date. Happy

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Ratification Day. That's right. 242 years since

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the Treaty of Paris was ratified. Exactly. The

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moment the U .S. was officially recognized. And,

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you know, that history of sovereign independent

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institutions is extremely relevant to what we're

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talking about today. It really is because our

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sources today are all focused on that very thing.

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The political cost of attacking those institutions,

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the cost of attacking the public's faith in them.

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Yeah, precisely. We have a really dense analysis

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of several major political battles happening

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right now. Our mission today is tactical. We're

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going to try to cut through the noise and find

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the core strategic missteps, what our sources

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are calling the unforced errors. Right. These

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are the mistakes that turn a small fight into

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a huge political disaster. We're going to start

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with the fallout from the Minneapolis shooting,

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then jump to the battles over Jerome Powell at

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the Fed and Senator Mark Kelly. And we'll finish

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up with something a little lighter. Oh, yeah.

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A great dose of schadenfreude about some failed

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dating sites. So the mission for you, the listener,

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is to really grasp the political calculus here.

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Why does a political party decide to double down

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on a fight, even when the ground is crumbling

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right under them? We're looking for those nuggets

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of insight into strategy. And what we keep seeing

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is this. That impers to double down creates new

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legal problems and maybe more dangerously it

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hands the opposition these Incredibly sympathetic

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figures to rally around. Okay. Let's unpack that

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starting in Minneapolis the fallout from the

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Jonathan Ross shooting The sources lay out a

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pretty stark political context. It's a very stark.

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The administration is trying to do two things

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at once Shield the shooter from criminal charges

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and use the incident as a rallying cry for their

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their aggressive domestic enforcement policies.

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One source noted, pretty dryly I thought, that

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it would have made Lyndon B. Johnson and Richard

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Nixon blush. And they're doing this even though

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the evidence just isn't there. That first video

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completely contradicts their story. The second

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one, I mean, it barely helps. It shows the victim's

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wife, Renee Good, maybe behaving badly, but it's

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not a justification for what happened. Not at

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all. It doesn't come close. So they chose this

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incident to send a message, but the facts on

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the ground are actively working against that

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message. Which brings us to the legal battlefield.

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This is where the real blowback could come from.

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Hennepin County attorney Mary Moriarty seems,

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well, she seems very interested in fighting this

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one out. She's signaling that this isn't just

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about one conviction. It's about sending a message

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that, in her view, law enforcement and the executive

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branch are out of control. And the key thing

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is, there's enough meat there for her to proceed.

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Even with the federal stonewall. Even with that.

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State charges can still be brought. And we have

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to remember, it's not just criminal charges.

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There's a huge wrongful death civil suit coming.

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Right. And that civil case can drag this on for

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months, even years. It'll keep it in the headlines,

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much like the Jamal Khashoggi case did internationally.

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But we've heard from legal experts like Andrew

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McCabe, who say that without FBI cooperation,

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no ballistics, no interviews, the state's case

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is basically fatal. Is that really true? Well,

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I think that analysis mistakes the difficulty

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of the case for its impossibility. First, it

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ignores the prosecutor's political motivation.

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But second, it really overstates how necessary

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federal cooperation is. How so? Federal agents

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can be compelled by subpoena. They can be forced

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to testify in a state court. And even more importantly,

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the autopsy is coming. Ballistics tell you what

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hit the victim, but the autopsy, the trajectory,

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the angle of entry, that tells you how they were

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shot. And that's evidence the state generates

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itself. Exactly. It's totally independent of

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the FBI. And let's be real, thousands of people

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get convicted of murder every year without ballistics

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or even eyewitnesses. The idea that the White

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House can just hide some documents and make a

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murder case disappear? Well, Morey already seems

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ready to challenge that assumption. We should

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probably also clarify the pardon situation, because

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that seems like the administration's get -out

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-of -jail -free card. It's a really common misconception.

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The president cannot pardon state law violations.

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Period. even if it's tried in a federal court.

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Doesn't matter. The power is restricted to federal

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offenses, and it definitely doesn't extend to

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civil actions, which is where the family will

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be seeking damages. So what could he do? He could

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issue a preemptive pardon for future federal

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charges, maybe in 2028 or 2029. But think about

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what that means. It implies guilt. It completely

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undermines the current message that the shooter

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did nothing wrong. And Minnesota has no statute

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of limitations for murder, so that legal risk

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just It hangs around long after this administration

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is gone. Which brings us to the human element.

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This is where choosing this fight really, really

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backfires. There's a great historical parallel

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here from the Civil Rights Movement with Claudette

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Colvin and Rosa Parks. Oh, absolutely. When you

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need a flashpoint for a movement, you need a

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symbol. And that symbol has to be incredibly

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sympathetic, almost politically bulletproof.

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And Rosa Parks was perfect. Yeah. Middle -aged,

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married, well -groomed. Right. While Claudette

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Colvin, who is a pregnant 15 -year -old, was

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seen as too risky, the opposition is always looking

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for dirt, so you need someone who is, you know,

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beyond reproach. And in Renee Good, the administration

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accidentally picked an opponent who is... Oh,

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she's almost impossibly sympathetic. First story's

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just heartbreaking. She was an innocent mom.

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She happened upon a blocked road after dropping

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your kid at school. It was pure happenstance.

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And the details. Young, married, church -going,

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wrote poetry, three kids. one of whom is now

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a six -year -old orphan whose father was a military

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vet. I mean, it's a perfect storm of sympathy.

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It really is, and the sources point out how the

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zeitgeist simplifies these stories. You know,

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today people remember Rosa Parks' tired feet.

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Not the complex strategy behind choosing her.

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It's totally plausible that Renee Good's anti

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-ice activism will just fade from the public

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story. And what's left is the image of the mom

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just dropping her kid off at school. That's the

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image that will stick. And it's why you just

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don't pick a fight with a figure like that unless

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your facts are absolutely rock solid. And that

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mistake led directly to the next one. Trying

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to dig up dirt on the goods, investigating them

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for mortgage fraud using the U .S. Attorney's

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Office. And that effort led to immediate, powerful

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institutional resistance. Six attorneys from

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the U .S. Attorney's Office in Minnesota, led

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by the top prosecutor Joseph Thompson, they all

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resigned. Wow. They basically said they weren't

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interested in becoming, as the sources put it,

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creep V2 .0. A direct reference to Nixon's Dirty

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Tricks Committee. Yep. The career prosecutors

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just drew a line in the sand, and it speaks volumes.

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Minneapolis Police Chief Brian O 'Hara had a

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great quote about it. What are you saying? He

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said, when you lose the leader responsible for

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making the fraud cases, it tells you this isn't

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really about prosecuting fraud. This is a perfect

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example of professionals pushing back against

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the weaponization of their own agencies. Speaking

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of which, let's pivot to the next unforced error.

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The attack on the Federal Reserve and Jerome

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Powell. The strategy here seems pretty obvious.

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Intimidation. Oh, clearly. It's a message to

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all independent agency heads, especially the

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Fed governors. Fall in line. But what's so strange

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is the inability to just take a political off

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ramp. I mean, once the fight starts, they can't

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back down. The president doubled down calling

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Powell. incompetent or he's crooked and then

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promised that jerk will be gone soon. The problem,

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of course, is that the Fed is literally designed

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to be immune to this kind of political pressure

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and the blowback was immediate and frankly massive.

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And it wasn't just domestic. You had prominent

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Republicans, Treasury Secretary Besant, members

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of the banking committees. The very people who

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have to approve any new Fed nominee. Right. But

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the international response was maybe even more

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powerful. It was unified. Leaders from 11 central

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banks, the EU, the UK, Canada, Australia, they

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all came out praising Powell and stressing the

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need for the Fed's independence. Then you had

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all three living former Fed chairs yelling Greenspan,

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Bernanke, plus 10 former Fed governors. They

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managed to unite the entire global financial

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establishment against them. But the real core

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of this unforced error. The thing that makes

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the whole investigation fall apart was pointed

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out by a reader, M .M. in Homasasa. A fantastic

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point. The alleged fraud over the Fed headquarters

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resurbishment. It's baseless because not one

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single penny of taxpayer money was used. And

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that's it. That's the whole ballgame. The Federal

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Reserve is self -funded. The executive branch

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has no jurisdiction over its budget, its spending,

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its cost overruns. Which happen all the time

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in DC on big projects like this. Especially when

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you're dealing with historic buildings, asbestos,

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lead paint. It's totally normal. So they launch

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an attack on financial grounds against an institution

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that is, by design, protected from that specific

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attack. Which brings us back to that core idea

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of faith. Exactly. The real crime here isn't

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financial, it's existential. The simple appearance

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of political interference in the Fed damages

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faith in the U .S. economy. Our whole system

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is built on full faith and credit. And the Fed

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is the last real check on the administration's

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economic power. It is. So attacking it so clumsily

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doesn't just annoy some bankers in Europe. It

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erodes the global trust that keeps the dollar

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stable. It's an incredibly risky move. Let's

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move to the third major institution they targeted.

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The military. By going after Senator Mark Kelly,

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Secretary of Defense Hegseth tried to punish

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him just for repeating part of the UCMJ. Yeah,

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the part that says soldiers don't have to follow

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illegal orders, the goal was clearly to intimidate

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active duty troops and stop them from speaking

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out. But again, the strategy just completely

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fell apart because the legal case was, well,

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it was nonexistent. It was riddled with holes.

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Let's just walk through them. First, Kelly just

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repeated the UCMJ. That's not seditious. And

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he's a sitting senator, so he has First Amendment

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and speech and debate clause protections. That's

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ground zero. But the procedural failures were

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almost worse. They were just embarrassing. They

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were stunningly bad. OK, so the procedure Hegseth

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used only applies to actions someone took while

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in service. Kelly's comments were made long after

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he retired. Strike one. Strike two. The procedure

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only applies to flag officers, generals and Admirals.

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07 and above. Kelly's highest rank was captain,

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an 0 -6. The rule literally did not apply to

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him. That's right, 3. To get a court martial,

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you have to prove a law was broken. He didn't

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break a law. It was an absolute legal non -starter

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from every possible angle. So not only did it

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fail, it handed Mark Kelly a massive political

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gift. A huge one. He immediately sued Hegseth

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and the Pentagon for lack of due process. And

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the case gets assigned to Judge Richard J. Leon,

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who is a very independent -minded George W. Bush

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appointee. And Kelly is happy to let this play

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out in public. He's thrilled to drag this out

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because every day the cases in the news, it elevates

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his profile. He becomes the symbol of a non -politicized

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military of free speech. It perfectly positions

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him for, you know, a potential run for a bigger

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office in 2029. Hegseth wanted to make an example

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of him and he did, just not the way he intended.

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OK, after all that, let's take a quick break

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for our weekly dose of schadenfreude. We can

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start with a comparison. The Ashley Madison hack

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back in 2015. Right, where it turned out 100

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,000 men were just talking to bots. The ultimate

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online deceit, which sets the stage perfectly

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for a white date. And its affiliates, White Child

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and White Deal. These were dating sites set up

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to connect white supremacists with so -called

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tradwives. Their tagline was, and I'm not making

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this up, European seeking tribal love. You just

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you can't write this stuff. The sheer cringe

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is off the charts. And of course, the humiliation

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was swift. What happened? The site was hacked

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live on stage at a security conference by a German

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hacker named Martha Root. She said the security

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was so bad. We're talking passwords stored in

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plain text that it would make even your grandma's

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AOL account blush. Oh, that is brutal. The breach

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was huge. Yeah. A hundred gigabytes of data,

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thousands of profiles. And when they looked at

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the data, what did they find? Let me guess. Men

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talking to bots. Almost entirely. wannabe Klansmen

00:12:19.440 --> 00:12:22.159
and Nazis talking to automated scripts. It turns

00:12:22.159 --> 00:12:24.639
out the pool of women who are racist, want to

00:12:24.639 --> 00:12:27.039
be a trad wife, are tech savvy enough to find

00:12:27.039 --> 00:12:29.320
this site and can't find a partner in their own

00:12:29.320 --> 00:12:33.580
community. That pool is vanishingly small. So

00:12:33.580 --> 00:12:35.399
the hack was the end of it. It was a fatal blow.

00:12:35.500 --> 00:12:37.559
The site is offline, just like other sites like

00:12:37.559 --> 00:12:39.779
Trump Singles that also failed. Just a beautiful

00:12:39.779 --> 00:12:42.120
moment of Internet schadenfreude. So let's bring

00:12:42.120 --> 00:12:43.559
it all together. What does this all mean? We

00:12:43.559 --> 00:12:45.460
have the tragedy in Minneapolis, the attack on

00:12:45.460 --> 00:12:48.240
the Fed, the targeting of Senator Kelly. What's

00:12:48.240 --> 00:12:51.220
the common thread? The common thread is a profound

00:12:51.220 --> 00:12:54.840
strategic misjudgment. In every case, the political

00:12:54.840 --> 00:12:57.379
strategy was to go to war against an independent

00:12:57.379 --> 00:13:00.799
institution, prosecutors, central bankers, the

00:13:00.799 --> 00:13:03.759
military, or against a deeply sympathetic figure

00:13:03.759 --> 00:13:06.480
like Renee Good. Even when the facts of the law

00:13:06.480 --> 00:13:09.610
weren't on their side. Especially then. That

00:13:09.610 --> 00:13:12.750
desire to double down on a story no matter what,

00:13:12.830 --> 00:13:15.570
it just leads to these costly self -inflicted

00:13:15.570 --> 00:13:18.389
wounds that end up empowering the opposition

00:13:18.389 --> 00:13:22.169
and frankly destabilizing core parts of our national

00:13:22.169 --> 00:13:24.210
infrastructure. It's all about the fragility

00:13:24.210 --> 00:13:26.879
of faith. Precisely. Whether it's the full faith

00:13:26.879 --> 00:13:28.519
and credit that our money is built on or the

00:13:28.519 --> 00:13:30.159
public faith you need to believe a political

00:13:30.159 --> 00:13:33.159
narrative, the consistent unforced error is to

00:13:33.159 --> 00:13:35.639
attack that foundational trust for no good reason.

00:13:35.960 --> 00:13:37.799
When you lose the faith of career prosecutors,

00:13:38.120 --> 00:13:40.720
global bankers, and military heroes, you've crossed

00:13:40.720 --> 00:13:43.039
a line that's very, very hard to come back from.

00:13:43.200 --> 00:13:45.840
Which brings us to our final provocative thought,

00:13:45.860 --> 00:13:49.059
and it goes back to Minneapolis. We know Minnesota

00:13:49.059 --> 00:13:52.279
has no statute of limitations for murder. So

00:13:52.279 --> 00:13:54.559
you have to consider a future. where the political

00:13:54.559 --> 00:13:57.340
clock just runs out on this administration. The

00:13:57.340 --> 00:14:00.059
case gets stonewalled, but eventually a new,

00:14:00.240 --> 00:14:02.600
different administration comes in and just turns

00:14:02.600 --> 00:14:05.500
all the evidence over to the state. So what does

00:14:05.500 --> 00:14:07.759
it tell us about justice? When justice has to

00:14:07.759 --> 00:14:09.700
wait for politics to change at the very highest

00:14:09.700 --> 00:14:12.700
level, is justice delayed still justice? And

00:14:12.700 --> 00:14:14.360
what does that long wait mean for the health

00:14:14.360 --> 00:14:16.779
of our institutions? Something we need to think

00:14:16.779 --> 00:14:17.940
about until our next deep dive.
