WEBVTT

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Welcome back to the Deep Dive. So this week,

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we've pulled together a stack of sources that

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they really map out a whole governing philosophy.

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It's all about aggressive action, isn't it? Both

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here at home and, well, across our borders. Exactly.

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We've got analysis on a frankly shocking domestic

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controversy, some major foreign policy pivots,

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and even some forecasts for the 2026 midterms.

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And we've also got a quieter piece, a look at

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the macroeconomic signals that are kind of humming

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along beneath all this chaos. So our mission

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today is really to unpack this shift, to understand

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how this aggressive stance is shaping our political

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reality. And critically, what it means for accountability.

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I mean, these sources show a world where the

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established guardrails, legal, political, you

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name it, they're being actively dismantled. It

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forces you, the listener, to try and reconcile

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these completely conflicting versions of reality.

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This isn't just a deep dive into politics. It's

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really a deep dive into power without limits.

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OK, let's jump right in then. Let's start with

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that core domestic crisis that's all over the

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headlines. The shooting death of Renee Nicole

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Good in Minneapolis. A U .S. citizen, a mother

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of three, shot by an ICE officer. And you have

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to remember the context here. According to the

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reporting, she's at least the fourth person killed

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in a shooting by immigration enforcement. just

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during this administration's second term. That

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number alone is staggering. But what's really

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fascinating in a pretty disturbing way is the

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response. Analysts are calling it a textbook

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alleged coverup. How so? The sources say a physician

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was right there on the scene. He tried to give

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aid to good. And he was stopped. Rebuffed by

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ICE officers. They told him, we have our own

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medics. Did they? That's the thing. No bystanders

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could confirm any ICE medics were actually present.

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There's no record of them being there at all.

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And this caused a delay. A crucial one. Ambulances

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showed up, but ICE personnel blocked them for

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about 15 minutes. 15. It wasn't until local firefighters

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stepped in that she could be removed. And then

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came the investigation. or the control of the

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investigation. Right. The FBI just immediately

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declared they would handle it alone. They completely

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froze out the Minnesota Bureau of Criminal Apprehension.

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The BCA. Exactly, the BCA. And this was all spearheaded

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by U .S. Attorney Daniel Rosen and FBI Director

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Cash Patel. And for you, the listener, the detail

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on Rosen is what really matters here. It is.

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His specialty is eminent domain. He doesn't prosecute

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law enforcement. He seizes property for the government.

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So why him? Well, analysts say the only plausible

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reason to bite in someone like that and to freeze

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out the local police isn't about competence.

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It's about gaining total political control over

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the story. Accountability is the first casualty.

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Right out of the gate. And the public strategy

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was just as aggressive. Vice President Vanspot

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2028 weighed in almost immediately. Declaring

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Good's death was, and I'm quoting, of her own

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making. He accused critics of gaslighting. No

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sympathy offered. And that reframing just escalated.

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DHS Secretary Kristi Noem and later President

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Trump, they designated her a domestic terrorist.

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Which isn't even a real legal designation, is

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it? Not at all. The sources call it meaningless

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branding. It's just a rhetorical weapon to shut

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down any criticism of what happened. This is

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where it gets, I think, really concerning for

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our shared sense of reality. The video evidence.

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Two completely different stories from two videos.

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The first one, the bystander video, was analyzed

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by everyone. The Times, Slate, The Post, and

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they all concluded it unambiguously did not justify

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deadly force. But then a second video surfaces.

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This one was recorded by the shooter himself

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on his cell phone and it gets leaked to a right

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-wing site. And the administration immediately

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pushes it as as exculpatory. as proof. And it

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introduces just enough ambiguity. You can see

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Good's wife, Becca, was jawing, right? There's

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tension, and there's this incomprehensible sound.

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A sound that could be anything. Exactly. Was

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it the car hitting something? Was it the gun?

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Or was it just the officer's finger brushing

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the microphone as he grabbed for his weapon?

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But that video, it raises huge questions that

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challenge the whole self -defense idea. The biggest

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one being... If you truly feared for your life,

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if you were under imminent threat, Why are you

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holding a cell phone steady enough to record?

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Why isn't your gun already out? And the audio,

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too. Her last words were, that's fine, dude,

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I'm not mad at you. How do you get from that

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to a deadly threat in 10 seconds? It seems like

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we've hit a point where two people can watch

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the exact same footage and see the complete opposite.

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That's it. We didn't need AI deepfakes to shatter

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our shared reality. Just hyperpartisan loyalty.

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And this connects to a wider pattern, doesn't

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it? It does. Pulitzer -winning reporting found

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that this administration has been encouraging

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a merciless military -style pursuit from its

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enforcement agencies. And the oversight is just

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gone. Completely. The three key oversight offices

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in DHS civil rights, the CIS ombudsman and the

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immigration detention ombudsman, They've all

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been effectively neutralized. You don't eliminate

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three oversight offices by accident. No, that's

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a structural message. It tells officers the only

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thing they can get in trouble for is, you know,

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not being aggressive enough. The retired officer

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in one piece noted that Law Enforcement 101 says

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you do not shoot into a moving vehicle. Right.

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You follow until you can control the environment.

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The shift here is away from control and toward

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just pure force. So let's connect that theme

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of domestic force to the international stage,

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because this idea of removing limits, it doesn't

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stop at the border. Precisely. The America First

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posture, it pivoted almost overnight to what

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sources are calling bald -faced imperialism.

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And the most dramatic example was the seizure

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of Venezuelan president Nicolas Maduro. Which

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led to the immediate announcement of the Donro

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doctrine. OK, for our listener, break that down.

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What is the Donro doctrine? It's basically a

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new justification for intervention. It says the

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U .S. has the unilateral right to seize any foreign

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leader it calls a global narcoterrorist, especially

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if their actions harm U .S. economic interests.

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That's a massive expansion of executive power.

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It just bypasses international law. Completely.

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And the result was immediate. The looting of

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Venezuela, as one source put it, Secretary Rubio

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announced a deal for U .S. oil companies to take

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all the oil. For reimbursement, right? Right,

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reimbursement for fixing the infrastructure.

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But they're essentially just taking the country's

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main asset. And the international reaction was

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not positive. Predictably sharp. French President

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Macron accused the U .S. of abandoning the very

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rules it helped create. And maybe more importantly,

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Mexican President Scheinbaum warned that intervention

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never ever brings democracy to Latin America.

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So removing accountability at home, asserting

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limitless power abroad, how does that circle

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back to how the government is run here? It leads

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you straight to this new fraud initiative. They're

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proposing a new assistant attorney general. A

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position that legal analysts say is probably

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illegal. Likely illegal, yes. And this person

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would work directly out of the White House with

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this huge, broad mandate to investigate fraud.

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An assistant AG reporting to the White House.

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That's not just a new focus. That sounds like

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the politicization of the Justice Department.

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That is the core concern. And their definition

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of fraud is incredibly loose. The vice president

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defined it as The people who are defrauding the

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United States by inciting violence against our

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law enforcement officers. That's not a legal

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definition of fraud. That's a political weapon.

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Exactly. And you can see it in the targets. First,

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Minnesota, tying back to the shooting narrative.

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Second, California, which the president called

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more corrupt, with no evidence. And third, the

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most surprising one, Fed Chair Jerome Powell.

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Targeting Powell is fascinating. The official

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accusation is that he stole millions during a

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headquarters renovation. The real reason. Analysts

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see it as punishment because he's refused to

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take marching orders on monetary policy. So they

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use this broad fraud brush to try and gain control

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over the Fed. So if you pull it all together,

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the governing philosophy seems to be strength.

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It really is. The president said it himself when

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asked about limits on his power. He said, my

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own morality, my own mind. It's the only thing

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that can stop me. That's a system governed by

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will, not by law. Force and personal will. Checks

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and balances are out the window. OK, let's shift

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gears and look at the 2026 midterms. All of this

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will surely be a factor. David Wasserman's analysis

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compares 2026 to the 2018 blue wave, and it really

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cuts both ways. It does. First, you have to look

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at the Republican advantages. This is not 2018.

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Gerrymandering has gotten so much worse since

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2020. And that's not theoretical, is it? Not

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at all. Analyst figure, it's already netted Republicans

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maybe half a dozen seats. That makes flipping

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41 seats again incredibly difficult for Democrats.

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And then there's the money. A huge money gap.

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The GOP has a big advantage with something like

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300 million dollars already sitting in the Magier

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Inc. Pock alone. There's also this perception

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issue for the Democrats. A big one. Polls suggest

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that even Republicans who can't stand the president

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will still vote GOP because they think the Democratic

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brand is only about gay people and trans people.

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It's a brand identity problem. But on the other

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hand, 2026 does look like 2018 in some ways that

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could help the Democrats. Definitely. Health

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care is still a top issue right after affordability,

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and Democrats have a clear plan on that. Lower

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costs with subsidies. And there's an intensity

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gap. A clear one. Democrats are way more enthusiastic

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about voting in 2026. Marginal Trump voters,

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historically, they just don't turn out for midterms.

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The candidate type is also interesting. Democrats

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have recruited a lot of candidates with national

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security backgrounds. People like Mendoza, Mazdam.

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Yes. Yes. And if foreign policy of Venezuela,

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the Greenland threats, becomes a major issue,

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those candidates could be very strong. You'd

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also have to talk about a pretty critical change

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to the mechanics of voting in one state. Ohio's

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SB 293. This is a big deal for mail -in voters.

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The law now eliminates counting any ballots that

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arrive after Election Day. Even if they were

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postmarked correctly? Even if they were postmarked

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on time. Before, they had four extra days. Now,

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with the Postal Service being what it is... It

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creates huge uncertainty. It effectively constrains

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voting, especially for rural or older voters.

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It will likely suppress turnout on the margins.

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Yeah. OK, looking even further ahead, past the

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midterms to 2028, Steve Bannon has announced

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he's thinking about a run. And the consensus

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is his goal isn't really to win. What is it then?

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To force the other candidates to adopt his views.

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You know, no more forever wars, economic populism,

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going after Big Tech. He's trying to define the

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future of the party. And that immediately creates

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problems for his potential rivals like Vance.

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Huge problems for Vance. He's got deep ties to

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Big Tech through Peter Thiel. How does he square

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that with Bannon's populism? Sound for Rubio.

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Chaos. Rubio needs evangelical support, which

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conflicts with Bannon's very strong anti -Israel

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stance. Bannon is a spoiler. He doesn't need

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millions for ads. He just has to say truly explosive

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things. And he gets all the free media coverage

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he wants. On the Democratic side, we're also

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seeing signals about the party's direction from

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some key retirements. Steny Hoyer, for one. 86

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years old in a safe Maryland seat, he's seen

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as a moderate relic who always wanted to work

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with Republicans. A concept that younger Democrats

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now seem to reject. They do. Representative Jamie

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Raskin said Hoyer's replacement will almost certainly

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be more progressive. We're seeing the same thing

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with Julia Brownlee's retirement in California.

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It's a steady shift. The old guard of consensus

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builders is leaving. And a more aggressive, progressive

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caucus is taking its place. OK, finally, let's

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take a quick look at the macro environment. Because

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with all this political chaos, the financial

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signals are strangely calm. It's a total paradox.

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It is a profound paradox. The data is telling

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a completely different story. The Hedgeye GIP

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model, for instance, is forecasting a hashtag

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Quad 1 for January 2026. All right. For the listener,

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what does hashtag Quad 1 mean in plain English?

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It's basically the economic Goldilocks scenario.

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It means growth is expected to go up and inflation

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is expected to go down. Historically, that's

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the best possible environment for stock. And

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volatility is also low. Very low. The VIX is

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at 14 .49, which is firmly in what traders call

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the investable bucket. The sweet spot. Right.

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It signals financial boredom. And that boredom

00:12:37.610 --> 00:12:40.809
translates into market flows. Volatility control

00:12:40.809 --> 00:12:42.929
funds are set to mechanically increase their

00:12:42.929 --> 00:12:45.370
risk, which could lead to something like $20

00:12:45.370 --> 00:12:49.149
billion in systematic equity buying. So the algorithms

00:12:49.149 --> 00:12:52.789
see quiet and just. buy stocks, no matter what

00:12:52.789 --> 00:12:54.750
the headlines say. Exactly. And the commodity

00:12:54.750 --> 00:12:57.590
markets confirm it. Gold, silver, palladium are

00:12:57.590 --> 00:13:00.450
all ripping higher. It's a picture of financial

00:13:00.450 --> 00:13:03.429
sanity in the middle of political madness. So

00:13:03.429 --> 00:13:06.190
to synthesize this whole deep dive, the central

00:13:06.190 --> 00:13:08.950
conflict we found is really between brute force

00:13:09.210 --> 00:13:11.529
and objective reality. That's right. The sources

00:13:11.529 --> 00:13:14.049
show an administration that's prioritizing control

00:13:14.049 --> 00:13:16.690
in Minneapolis and Venezuela with this new AG

00:13:16.690 --> 00:13:19.129
position. And at the same time, the traditional

00:13:19.129 --> 00:13:21.629
guardrails are just eroding. Which leaves a central

00:13:21.629 --> 00:13:24.029
tension for you, the listener. In a world where

00:13:24.029 --> 00:13:26.289
a citizen's death can be called of her own making,

00:13:26.789 --> 00:13:29.870
where fraud can mean inciting violence, Political

00:13:29.870 --> 00:13:32.330
success isn't about governing anymore. It's about

00:13:32.330 --> 00:13:34.470
controlling the definition of reality itself.

00:13:34.629 --> 00:13:36.769
Which brings us to a final provocative thought.

00:13:37.049 --> 00:13:39.210
If partisan loyalty is now so strong that people

00:13:39.210 --> 00:13:41.990
see opposite things in the same video, we don't

00:13:41.990 --> 00:13:44.750
even need deepfakes anymore. What happens when

00:13:44.750 --> 00:13:47.350
the economic calm of this Quad One model finally

00:13:47.350 --> 00:13:49.870
breaks? What happens when all this political

00:13:49.870 --> 00:13:53.309
polarization slams into real widespread financial

00:13:53.309 --> 00:13:56.269
pain? What shared truth or even shared pain will

00:13:56.269 --> 00:13:58.750
be left for voters to react to? when they can't

00:13:58.750 --> 00:14:00.509
even agree on what they just saw with their own

00:14:00.509 --> 00:14:00.730
eyes.
