WEBVTT

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Welcome back to the deep dive. So you've probably

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encountered this strange paradox in the economy,

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right? Oh, definitely. You see the official data.

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You see healthy GDP, low unemployment. But for

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so many people, stability just feels well. completely

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out of reach. It feels like the goalposts have

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moved. And that's exactly what we're digging

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into with the sources you've brought today. We're

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going to interrogate those foundational numbers,

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the policies that create that exact feeling.

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We'll start with the economics and then you'll

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see how that bleeds directly into, well, political

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physics and even the way we project power globally.

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The core question is always... Where are the

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broken parameters? Okay, let's unpack that distortion

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then because it starts with this one Just massive

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claim right the official poverty line for a family

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of four in the u .s. Is about thirty one thousand

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dollars thirty one thousand two hundred Yeah

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But the analysis we're looking at suggests that

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if you calculate the real cost of living the

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actual crisis point for a family is closer to

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a hundred and forty thousand It's a staggering

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difference, isn't it? Unbelievable. And it totally

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reframes how you see the American economy. I

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mean, if almost half the country is living in

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what you could call economic deprivation, then

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all the political fragility, all the anger, it

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starts to make a lot more sense. It all connects.

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We have to follow this invisible infrastructure

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that's defining our reality. So let's start with

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the origin story of that flawed number. We have

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to go back to 1963. Right. To an economist named

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Molly Orshansky. And her formula? for the time

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was actually pretty simple and elegant. She said

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the poverty line is just three times the cost

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of a minimum food diet. And we have to be really

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clear about her intent. She was a rigorous economist.

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She wasn't trying to define what's a good middle

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class life. She was measuring income inadequacy.

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She was drawing a line in the sand. A crisis

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floor. The bare minimum. The absolute minimum

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to avoid total destitution. And that three times

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multiplier only worked in 1963 because the rest

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of the family The family's budget wasn't so constrained.

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Housing was relatively cheap. It was a way to

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build wealth. Health care may be a blue cross

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plan. Ten dollars a month. Which is what? About

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a hundred bucks today adjusted for inflation.

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A tiny fraction of what it is now. And child

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care was mostly non -market. Family helped or

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mothers stayed home. You could even pay for college

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with a summer job. And today that entire structure

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has, I mean, it's completely inverted. Right.

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If you look at twenty twenty four, housing costs

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have just exploded. Health care is this massive

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mandatory expense and child care. The sources

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call it. ruinously expensive. And that inversion

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is the whole story. What families spend money

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on has totally transformed. Food you eat at home,

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it's not a third of your budget anymore. Not

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even close. It's more like five to seven percent.

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So if you stick to Orshansky's original principle

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that the multiplier should be the inverse of

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what you spend on food, then That number three

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is totally obsolete. It's not three anymore.

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It's 16. 16. And that's the whole mechanism.

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That's how the measurement breaks. You apply

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that new multiplier, and suddenly the income

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inadequacy line for a family of four is, well,

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it's somewhere between $130 ,000 and $150 ,000.

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So the official number, that $31 ,000? It's not

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measuring poverty anymore. It's measuring the

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threshold for actual starvation in a modern economy.

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That is just, it's astonishing. But let's ground

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it. Does that $140 ,000 figure assume a big house

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and luxury cars? Not at all. Not even a little

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bit. The analysis actually breaks down a basic

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needs budget. It's for a family of four, two

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earners, two kids. And there are zero luxuries.

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It's just what they call the participation ticket.

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But you need just to hold a job. Exactly. To

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hold a job, raise kids in 2024. And the gross

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income they need for just that is $136 ,500.

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And get this, the most shocking detail in that

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budget. It's not the housing. No. Housing is

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about $23 ,000 a year in their model. The biggest

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line item is child care. $32 ,773. It costs more

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than the roof over your head. And this creates

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what the analysis calls the child care trap.

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It's fundamental. How does that work? Well, to

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get to the median household income, about $80

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,000, you almost always need two adults working.

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Sure. But the moment that second person goes

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to work, you trigger that $32 ,000 child care

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bill. So the second income isn't for saving.

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It's not for getting ahead. It's just to pay

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a stranger to watch your kids so you can go to

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work. It's a closed loop. A completely closed

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loop. Your net gain at the end of the month might

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only be $1 ,000 or $2 ,000. And we should remember

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that $136 ,000 number is conservative. Very conservative.

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It's using a national average for rent of like...

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$1 ,900 a month if you live anywhere near a major

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city. I mean, the example they give is Caldwell,

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New Jersey. Right, a decent town, but not Manhattan.

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And a two -bedroom there is over $2 ,700 a month.

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And your required income immediately jumps past

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$160 ,000. And that rent check buys you zero

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equity. That is a critical change from the 50s.

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For the working poor, Housing today is just an

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expense. It's a subscription for a roof. It's

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not building any wealth. Now, when you present

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this data, you always get pushback from economists

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about hedonic adjustments. Yes, the quality argument.

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They say, sure, prices are higher, but your phone

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is better. Your TV is better. Why is that defense

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so flawed here? Because it's a category error.

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I mean, it's a total distraction. We're not talking

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about the price of a luxury TV. Right. We are

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calculating the price of participation. Yeah.

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What does it cost just to show up in the modern

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economy? Okay, so let's run the participation

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audit. In 1955, your connectivity cost was a

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landline. Five bucks a month. About $58 in today's

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money. Today, you need a smartphone, you need

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broadband for work, for school, for your bank.

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And that's about $200 a month. The cost of just

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being connected has tripled, even after you adjust

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for inflation. And health care is the most violent

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comparison. That $10 a month premium in 1955,

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that's $115 today. The average family premium

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now, over $1 ,600 a month. That's 14 times inflation.

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14 times. And childcare, of course, went from

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basically zero in a single earner economy to

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$32 ,000. It's an infinite increase in a mandatory

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cost. And this whole cost structure is what creates

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the valley of death in the safety net. Right.

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It's a trap. The system punishes you for trying

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to climb. How so? The cliffs are just undeniable.

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A family might lose Medicaid when their income

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hits, say, $45 ,000. So a $10 ,000 raise. A $10

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,000 raise, which should be amazing, suddenly

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means you have a massive new health care bill.

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You're actually poorer. And the same thing happens

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with child care subsidies around $65 ,000. A

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$20 ,000 pay bump can trigger a $28 ,000 loss

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in benefits. So the effective tax on trying to

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get ahead is insane. maybe a hundred percent.

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Which means a family making a hundred grand can

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easily be worse off financially than one making

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forty thousand. You are penalized for striving.

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And falling below that 140 line is what the analysis

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calls a phase change. You become economically

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inert. Exactly. You're barred from good credit.

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You can't get into a decent rental. You have

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no buffer. That $140 ,000 line is an affluence.

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It's the buffer against total ruin. So when we

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see those charts, You know the ones showing the

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middle class drinking, but the number of families

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making over 150 is growing. Yeah, the ones that

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used to show rising prosperity. We have to completely

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reinterpret that now. Absolutely. If you apply

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this $140 ,000 survival line, that chart doesn't

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show prosperity. It shows that only about a third

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of Americans have managed to escape deprivation.

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So the so -called middle class? That huge group,

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45 % of the country, making between 50 and 150.

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They're actually the working poor, trapped in

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that valley of death. They make too much for

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help, but not nearly enough to live. And it explains

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why the poverty rate is low. Food is cheap. Food

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is cheap. Life is expensive. Because housing,

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health care, and child care are broken. In this

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feeling, this economic stress where working harder

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makes you poorer, it translates directly into

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political instability. It has to. Which brings

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us to the raw numbers of power in Washington.

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The sources really highlight just how fragile

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the whole political environment is, especially

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in the House. Yeah. After the recent death of

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Representative Doug LaMalfa from California and

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Marjorie Taylor Greene's exit before that, the

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Republican majority is, well, it's on a knife's

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edge. The tally right now is 218 Republicans

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to 213 Democrats. A five -seat margin. And as

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Professor Kostas Panagopoulos points out in the

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analysis, that is an incredibly difficult margin

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to govern with. Even a handful of people defecting

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can kill any piece of legislation. And it's probably

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going to get even tighter. Almost certainly.

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There are two upcoming special elections that

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Democrats are heavily favored to win. Texas is

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18th and New Jersey is 11th. Right. The New Jersey

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one is considered safe Democrat. So if they win

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both, and they're expected to... Let's do the

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math. The majority shrinks to 218 to 215. Which

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means Speaker Mike Johnson could only afford

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a single defection on any vote. One person defects

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or is just absent and he can't pass a thing.

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That is unbelievable fragility. It empowers the

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fringes. The analysis warns that basically anyone

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can now derail the entire agenda. When your margin

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is that thin, a few members who refuse to compromise,

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often fueled by that same economic resentment,

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they get a veto over the will of the majority.

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So the political system is just reflecting the

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economic instability. Every absence, every illness,

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like with Representative Jim Baird, it's suddenly

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a major political crisis. It is. The whole branch

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of government is hanging by a single thread.

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And when the legislature is that paralyzed, the

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executive branch often feels like it has to act

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more aggressively. And that brings us to our

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final piece. The shift toward aggressive executive

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power. We're talking about Greenland. Yes, a

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remarkably aggressive stance. Secretary of State

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Marco Rubio told lawmakers the goal is to buy

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the island from Denmark. But the administration

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hasn't ruled out just. taking it. Right. They've

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publicly refused to rule out seizing it by force.

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The White House press secretary said acquiring

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Greenland is a national security priority for

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the Arctic. The blowback must be immense. Denmark

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is a NATO ally. It's profound. Attacking a Danish

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territory is an attack on NATO. Other members

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have basically said that if the US did that,

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it would be the end of NATO. The end of the alliance.

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The Danish prime minister's words were Everything

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would come to an end. And this kind of aggressive

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foreign policy seems to trace back to one person.

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A central figure, yes. Stephen Miller, the deputy

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chief of staff for policy. He is described as

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the accelerant for the president's most incendiary

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ideas. The prime minister, really. And his style

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is... Pretty intense. He runs his meetings like

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a wartime general, accepts no dissent, he's pushed

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for things like 3 ,000 immigration arrests a

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day, which is a ten -fold increase, and he's

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leading the charge against elite universities.

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It's the philosophy behind it that's key. You

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have to understand his worldview. He doesn't

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see disagreement as politics. He sees it as an

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existential conflict. against forces of wickedness

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and evil. So he's fundamentally against the whole

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post -World War II order. Exactly. He wants to

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end the international niceties and live in a

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world governed by strength, that is governed

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by force, that is governed by power. And that

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explains Greenland. It's a pure power play. A

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pure power play. And it's consistent. He was

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a key force behind the operation to capture President

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Maduro in Venezuela, and he declared the U .S.

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military could take Greenland without a fight.

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And his goal seems to go beyond just policy wins.

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Oh, yeah. The analysis from former Senator Jeff

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Flake is that Miller's goal is to change the

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nature of who we are as a country. to reverse

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the immigration trends since the 1960s. And he's

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willing to use the power of the state to do it.

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That's the defining trait. It's not just against

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immigrants under some banner of national emergency.

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It's also against domestic opponents. Right.

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The sources detail his efforts to get federal

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law enforcement to investigate a local activist

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who he claimed was threatening his family. It

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shows a willingness to use what he calls legitimate

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state power against any perceived threat. foreign,

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or domestic. So we have these three systems,

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economic, political, and foreign policy, all

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stretched to their absolute limit. That's the

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perfect way to put it. We've looked at this foundational

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economic number that traps millions below this

00:12:54.590 --> 00:12:57.850
$140 ,000 survival line. Then we saw the political

00:12:57.850 --> 00:13:00.230
fragility that results from that, with a House

00:13:00.230 --> 00:13:02.830
majority hanging on by a single vote. And finally,

00:13:03.009 --> 00:13:05.450
this aggressive, power -first foreign policy

00:13:05.450 --> 00:13:07.870
that's threatening to just dismantle core alliances

00:13:07.870 --> 00:13:11.860
like NATO. In every single case, a basic parameter

00:13:11.860 --> 00:13:14.679
is being stretched to its breaking point. The

00:13:14.679 --> 00:13:17.220
poverty multiplier, the majority threshold, the

00:13:17.220 --> 00:13:20.139
definition of an ally's sovereignty. We are defining

00:13:20.139 --> 00:13:23.059
crisis incorrectly, managing power precariously

00:13:23.059 --> 00:13:25.740
and projecting force dangerously. Which leaves

00:13:25.740 --> 00:13:27.600
one last big question for you to think about.

00:13:27.740 --> 00:13:30.659
Right. If all the anger and volatility you see

00:13:30.659 --> 00:13:33.759
out there, the rage the person earning 65 grand

00:13:33.759 --> 00:13:36.600
feels at the system, at their neighbors, at their

00:13:36.600 --> 00:13:39.409
leaders, if that is all fundamentally a result

00:13:39.409 --> 00:13:42.629
of a broken economic contract, where working

00:13:42.629 --> 00:13:45.970
hard doesn't get you past that $140 ,000 line.

00:13:46.190 --> 00:13:48.409
Then what do you fix first? What has to be fixed

00:13:48.409 --> 00:13:51.110
first for stability to return? Do you have to

00:13:51.110 --> 00:13:53.429
fix the economic math before the political rage

00:13:53.429 --> 00:13:56.009
can ever calm down? A very challenging thought

00:13:56.009 --> 00:13:58.289
to end on. Thank you for sharing your sources

00:13:58.289 --> 00:14:00.889
with us for this deep dive. We hope you feel

00:14:00.889 --> 00:14:02.809
a little more informed about the hidden numbers

00:14:02.809 --> 00:14:03.889
that are shaping our world.
