WEBVTT 00:00:00.000 --> 00:00:02.640 Welcome back to the deep dive. Just when we all 00:00:02.640 --> 00:00:06.339 thought the holiday break might bring a blessed 00:00:06.339 --> 00:00:09.300 moment of geopolitical calm. Not a chance. Not 00:00:09.300 --> 00:00:12.400 a chance. The world threw us one of the most 00:00:12.400 --> 00:00:15.359 high stakes, rapidly developing stories we've 00:00:15.359 --> 00:00:18.160 seen in years. The U .S. invasion of Venezuela, 00:00:18.339 --> 00:00:21.420 which all culminated in the swift, dramatic capture 00:00:21.420 --> 00:00:23.879 of President Nicolas Maduro. The whole thing 00:00:23.879 --> 00:00:27.100 was dubbed. Operation Absolute Resolve. It was 00:00:27.100 --> 00:00:29.620 a shocking sequence of events. And for you, the 00:00:29.620 --> 00:00:31.679 listener, we're here to give you the ultimate 00:00:31.679 --> 00:00:34.479 shortcut. We have dissected a massive stack of 00:00:34.479 --> 00:00:37.679 sources on this unprecedented military action. 00:00:37.799 --> 00:00:39.979 Our mission today is pretty specific. We're going 00:00:39.979 --> 00:00:41.920 to pull apart the chaotic timeline. We'll look 00:00:41.920 --> 00:00:44.939 at the very questionable legal arguments used 00:00:44.939 --> 00:00:47.920 to justify it all. And then weigh the brilliant 00:00:47.920 --> 00:00:50.799 tactical success against what looks like a monumental 00:00:50.799 --> 00:00:53.439 strategic failure. Exactly. And ultimately, we 00:00:53.439 --> 00:00:56.740 have to try and grasp the possible and frankly, 00:00:56.880 --> 00:00:59.539 maybe darker motivations behind this entire operation. 00:00:59.659 --> 00:01:01.679 This wasn't just a raid. This was a move that 00:01:01.679 --> 00:01:04.400 resets major international precedents. OK, let's 00:01:04.400 --> 00:01:07.540 unpack this. Starting with the timeline, because 00:01:07.540 --> 00:01:10.260 it's pretty clear that. Operation Absolute Resolve 00:01:10.260 --> 00:01:13.719 wasn't some snap decision. No, not at all. Social 00:01:13.719 --> 00:01:16.420 material shows Venezuela has been an administration 00:01:16.420 --> 00:01:20.780 obsession for months, with some really aggressive 00:01:20.780 --> 00:01:23.000 groundwork being laid well before that Friday 00:01:23.000 --> 00:01:25.420 night invasion. And we can trace that escalation, 00:01:25.540 --> 00:01:27.359 right? Absolutely. We can trace it through a 00:01:27.359 --> 00:01:30.819 series of... Well, increasingly brazen precursor 00:01:30.819 --> 00:01:33.920 actions. Most troubling were the naval actions. 00:01:34.620 --> 00:01:37.760 We saw U .S. ships sinking multiple civilian 00:01:37.760 --> 00:01:40.599 Venezuelan fishing boats. Under the guise of 00:01:40.599 --> 00:01:43.560 kenner narcotics. Of very thin guise, yes. And 00:01:43.560 --> 00:01:45.599 the sources detailing these incidents are, I 00:01:45.599 --> 00:01:47.480 mean, they're chilling. They point out multiple 00:01:47.480 --> 00:01:50.400 instances where US ships just opened fire without 00:01:50.400 --> 00:01:52.359 giving the crews any chance to surrender. But 00:01:52.359 --> 00:01:54.980 the real gut punch, the detail that signals a 00:01:54.980 --> 00:01:57.319 profound ethical shift is that repeated occurrence 00:01:57.319 --> 00:01:59.719 of what's called a double tap. Meaning they fired 00:01:59.719 --> 00:02:01.599 on civilians who had survived the first attack 00:02:01.599 --> 00:02:04.310 and were already in the water. Legally. These 00:02:04.310 --> 00:02:05.890 boats weren't even, you know, headed for the 00:02:05.890 --> 00:02:08.530 U .S. in many cases, which makes the justification 00:02:08.530 --> 00:02:11.169 tenuous to begin with. The double tap makes it 00:02:11.169 --> 00:02:13.009 look less like an interdiction and more like 00:02:13.009 --> 00:02:16.069 an execution. Exactly. And that aggression was 00:02:16.069 --> 00:02:18.990 followed by the seizure of a Venezuelan oil tanker. 00:02:19.210 --> 00:02:21.349 A federal judge backed that one, though. He did. 00:02:21.909 --> 00:02:25.270 But the sources argue the real legal basis for 00:02:25.270 --> 00:02:28.889 that move was essentially might makes right, 00:02:29.449 --> 00:02:31.490 backed by some vague references to sanctions 00:02:31.490 --> 00:02:34.330 against Iran. This wasn't really about law. It 00:02:34.330 --> 00:02:36.750 was about showing intent. So fast forward to 00:02:36.750 --> 00:02:39.129 the invasion itself. The plan had been in the 00:02:39.129 --> 00:02:40.789 works for a while. For several months, yeah. 00:02:40.930 --> 00:02:43.250 They were watching Maduro's patterns. President 00:02:43.250 --> 00:02:45.270 Trump gave the final approval sometime around 00:02:45.270 --> 00:02:47.229 Christmas Day. And the launch on Friday night 00:02:47.229 --> 00:02:50.389 was huge. Massive. A coordinated action. Roughly 00:02:50.389 --> 00:02:53.689 150 aircraft from 20 different bases. The tactical 00:02:53.689 --> 00:02:57.449 speed was... Incredible. U .S. personnel managed 00:02:57.449 --> 00:03:00.270 to capture Maduro and his wife Celia Flores before 00:03:00.270 --> 00:03:02.110 they could even get to their safe room. That 00:03:02.110 --> 00:03:04.129 is the definition of a successful extraction. 00:03:04.509 --> 00:03:07.120 It is. And the world found out when Trump gets 00:03:07.120 --> 00:03:10.039 on Truth Social and brags about a large -scale 00:03:10.039 --> 00:03:12.379 strike against law enforcement. Of course. And 00:03:12.379 --> 00:03:14.080 the ultimate image of the whole thing has to 00:03:14.080 --> 00:03:16.060 be the president watching it all unfold on a 00:03:16.060 --> 00:03:18.719 TV screen at Mar -a -Lago. And, as is traditional, 00:03:18.919 --> 00:03:20.780 the official casualty reports were immediately 00:03:20.780 --> 00:03:23.360 downplayed. The reports say one U .S. helicopter 00:03:23.360 --> 00:03:25.900 was hit but stayed airborne. Some soldiers were 00:03:25.900 --> 00:03:28.139 injured. But the source material warns us to 00:03:28.139 --> 00:03:30.939 be. cautious about that. Very cautious. The phrase 00:03:30.939 --> 00:03:33.419 stable condition can hide a lot. We just don't 00:03:33.419 --> 00:03:36.479 have the full picture. So Maduro is now in the 00:03:36.479 --> 00:03:39.080 Metropolitan Detention Center in Brooklyn. What 00:03:39.080 --> 00:03:42.000 about his wife? Her location is a complete mystery. 00:03:42.500 --> 00:03:44.419 The administration has been surprisingly quiet 00:03:44.419 --> 00:03:46.479 about her, which just raises more questions. 00:03:46.680 --> 00:03:50.819 And the prosecutor for this case is Jay Clayton. 00:03:51.060 --> 00:03:52.939 Jay Clayton, U .S. attorney for the Southern 00:03:52.939 --> 00:03:54.879 District of New York. But he is a finance guy, 00:03:55.080 --> 00:03:58.900 right? Former SEC chair. Prosecuting a captured 00:03:58.900 --> 00:04:01.960 foreign leader for drug trafficking is miles 00:04:01.960 --> 00:04:04.159 outside his wheelhouse. That tells you a lot 00:04:04.159 --> 00:04:06.060 about the political nature of this prosecution. 00:04:06.599 --> 00:04:08.319 Okay, now we have to move into the legal arguments, 00:04:08.580 --> 00:04:11.139 which is where this whole thing goes from geopolitics 00:04:11.139 --> 00:04:14.080 to, I mean, just dangerous precedent setting. 00:04:14.419 --> 00:04:16.379 This is where it gets really interesting because 00:04:16.379 --> 00:04:18.439 these actions are less about winning a court 00:04:18.439 --> 00:04:21.360 case and more about creating a new rule book 00:04:21.360 --> 00:04:24.000 for presidential power. Let's hit the biggest 00:04:24.000 --> 00:04:26.709 international law question first. The invasion 00:04:26.709 --> 00:04:30.009 itself. The U .S. is a signatory to the U .N. 00:04:30.170 --> 00:04:32.730 Charter. Which generally prohibits war without 00:04:32.730 --> 00:04:35.329 U .N. approval unless it's an act of legitimate 00:04:35.329 --> 00:04:37.509 self -defense. And the administration's argument 00:04:37.509 --> 00:04:40.250 for self -defense is breathtakingly expansive. 00:04:40.560 --> 00:04:42.699 They're arguing that the drugs flowing through 00:04:42.699 --> 00:04:45.240 Venezuela are killing Americans, and therefore 00:04:45.240 --> 00:04:47.759 the invasion is justified as an act of self -defense. 00:04:47.959 --> 00:04:50.160 Self -defense against an attack. Right, an attack. 00:04:50.439 --> 00:04:52.540 If that argument holds up, what does that mean 00:04:52.540 --> 00:04:55.160 for the future? It means the UN Charter's limits 00:04:55.160 --> 00:04:58.459 on war are, well, functionally neutered for any 00:04:58.459 --> 00:05:01.600 major world power. As one commentator put it, 00:05:01.879 --> 00:05:04.100 this interpretation would boggle the minds of 00:05:04.100 --> 00:05:07.019 the folks who drew up the UN Charter. It basically 00:05:07.019 --> 00:05:09.800 removes any real limitation. A terrifying precedent. 00:05:09.800 --> 00:05:13.000 Okay. Second, legal ambiguity. Diplomatic community. 00:05:14.240 --> 00:05:16.839 If Maduro is a head of state, capturing him is 00:05:16.839 --> 00:05:19.620 an international crime. But the administration 00:05:19.620 --> 00:05:22.100 says he's not legitimate because the US doesn't 00:05:22.100 --> 00:05:25.220 formally recognize him. Now, international law 00:05:25.220 --> 00:05:27.560 usually defaults to who is the effective head 00:05:27.560 --> 00:05:29.860 of government. Which Maduro has been for over 00:05:29.860 --> 00:05:32.620 a decade. Right. But they're relying on a very 00:05:32.620 --> 00:05:35.480 specific U .S. court precedent here, the Manuel 00:05:35.480 --> 00:05:38.439 Noriega case from 1990. What did that establish? 00:05:38.680 --> 00:05:40.839 In that case, the judge is basically punted. 00:05:40.899 --> 00:05:42.819 They said the decision of who was a legitimate 00:05:42.819 --> 00:05:45.220 head of state belongs to the executive branch, 00:05:45.540 --> 00:05:48.120 not the courts. So the president decides. The 00:05:48.120 --> 00:05:50.420 president decides. And if that precedent stands 00:05:50.420 --> 00:05:53.660 here... which it likely will. It's massive. It 00:05:53.660 --> 00:05:55.920 means any future president could seize any leader, 00:05:56.180 --> 00:05:58.040 claim their election was fraudulent, and the 00:05:58.040 --> 00:05:59.959 U .S. courts wouldn't challenge it. Wow. OK, 00:05:59.959 --> 00:06:02.300 so what about the domestic law piece? Congress 00:06:02.300 --> 00:06:04.759 is supposed to declare war. They sidestep that 00:06:04.759 --> 00:06:07.180 using Article 2, claiming the president has to 00:06:07.180 --> 00:06:10.120 protect America from imminent attack. The idea 00:06:10.120 --> 00:06:12.579 that Venezuela was on the cusp of an imminent 00:06:12.579 --> 00:06:15.660 attack on the U .S. is, as the sources put it, 00:06:16.040 --> 00:06:20.399 laughable. It is. Now, they did technically comply 00:06:20.399 --> 00:06:24.060 with the War Powers Resolution by notifying Congress 00:06:24.060 --> 00:06:27.040 within 48 hours. But only because the President 00:06:27.040 --> 00:06:29.360 was bragging about it on social media. Pretty 00:06:29.360 --> 00:06:32.180 much. But the critical failure, the requirement 00:06:32.180 --> 00:06:34.819 they didn't meet, was notifying the Gang of Eight 00:06:34.819 --> 00:06:37.500 before the action. For our listeners, who is 00:06:37.500 --> 00:06:39.300 the Gang of Eight? It's the top leadership in 00:06:39.300 --> 00:06:41.540 Congress from both parties, plus the heads of 00:06:41.540 --> 00:06:43.240 the House and Senate Intelligence Committees. 00:06:43.699 --> 00:06:45.420 They're supposed to be informed of these kinds 00:06:45.420 --> 00:06:47.819 of covert actions. And the excuse for not telling 00:06:47.819 --> 00:06:50.779 them. Secretary Rubio gave a pretty weak explanation. 00:06:51.100 --> 00:06:53.259 He called it a trigger -based mission, where 00:06:53.259 --> 00:06:56.160 prior notification was impossible. Which just 00:06:56.160 --> 00:06:59.139 doesn't sound credible. No. The takeaway here 00:06:59.139 --> 00:07:01.199 is that the administration is exploiting or breaking 00:07:01.199 --> 00:07:04.120 the law. And these actions are setting profound 00:07:04.120 --> 00:07:07.000 new precedents for presidential power. It's about 00:07:07.000 --> 00:07:09.660 precedent, not just immediate legality. Let's 00:07:09.660 --> 00:07:13.230 shift gears. away from the legality and to the 00:07:13.230 --> 00:07:15.750 execution because the source material paints 00:07:15.750 --> 00:07:18.230 this, I mean, almost surreal contrast between 00:07:18.230 --> 00:07:20.170 the tactical brilliance of the mission. And the 00:07:20.170 --> 00:07:23.189 pure strategic incompetence that followed. Operationally, 00:07:23.209 --> 00:07:26.350 it was flawless. Flawless. It was a complex operation 00:07:26.350 --> 00:07:29.050 target extraction, air superiority, and they 00:07:29.050 --> 00:07:32.689 pull it off with minimal reported loss. A huge 00:07:32.689 --> 00:07:35.209 contrast to historical failures like the Bay 00:07:35.209 --> 00:07:38.300 of Pigs or Operation Eagle Claw. So the planners 00:07:38.300 --> 00:07:40.560 of the raid itself deserve credit. All the credit 00:07:40.560 --> 00:07:43.399 in the world. But the strategic failure, the 00:07:43.399 --> 00:07:46.259 plan for what comes after Maduro, appears to 00:07:46.259 --> 00:07:48.220 have been a total mess. And starts with the power 00:07:48.220 --> 00:07:51.139 vacuum, right? Maduro didn't rule alone. Not 00:07:51.139 --> 00:07:54.319 at all. He relied on two key figures, Diosdado 00:07:54.319 --> 00:07:57.459 Cabello, a powerful oligarch, and General Vladimir 00:07:57.459 --> 00:08:00.120 Padrino Lopez, who heads the military. And here's 00:08:00.120 --> 00:08:02.379 the critical detail. Both of them are still in 00:08:02.379 --> 00:08:04.439 Venezuela. Still in office. Still in office. 00:08:04.680 --> 00:08:07.079 So capturing the figurehead solved nothing. The 00:08:07.079 --> 00:08:09.259 regime's infrastructure is still there. The most 00:08:09.259 --> 00:08:11.819 likely outcomes now are either one of them taking 00:08:11.819 --> 00:08:15.240 over basically Maduro version 2 .0 or the country 00:08:15.240 --> 00:08:17.920 plunging into a civil war. And the succession 00:08:17.920 --> 00:08:21.199 plan the White House floated was, well, it was 00:08:21.199 --> 00:08:23.500 instantly exposed as garbage. Total garbage. 00:08:23.839 --> 00:08:26.279 Under the Venezuelan constitution, power was 00:08:26.279 --> 00:08:29.300 supposed to go to the executive VP, Delci Rodriguez. 00:08:30.100 --> 00:08:31.800 The administration claimed they were working 00:08:31.800 --> 00:08:34.799 with her. And that claim lasted, what, 20 minutes? 00:08:35.419 --> 00:08:37.929 About that, yeah. before she appeared on state 00:08:37.929 --> 00:08:40.929 -run television denouncing the capture and demanding 00:08:40.929 --> 00:08:43.710 Maduro's liberation as the only president of 00:08:43.710 --> 00:08:45.929 Venezuela. So it suggests they didn't just have 00:08:45.929 --> 00:08:48.730 a shaky strategy. They might not have had a strategy 00:08:48.730 --> 00:08:51.210 at all, or at least their cooperation with her 00:08:51.210 --> 00:08:54.250 was just wishful thinking. And this strategic 00:08:54.250 --> 00:08:57.769 vacuum was immediately overshadowed by pure political 00:08:57.769 --> 00:09:00.690 theater. Everyone knows that famous photo from 00:09:00.690 --> 00:09:02.769 the Situation Room during the Bin Laden raid. 00:09:02.950 --> 00:09:05.309 Right, the Obama team. It's obvious Trump wanted 00:09:05.309 --> 00:09:07.029 his own version of that at Mar -a -Lago. But 00:09:07.029 --> 00:09:09.450 his photo wasn't quite the Situation Room, was 00:09:09.450 --> 00:09:12.370 it? It was amateur hour. The sources point out 00:09:12.370 --> 00:09:14.629 hastily erected black curtains in the background. 00:09:14.929 --> 00:09:16.610 You can see a disconnected phone on the table 00:09:16.610 --> 00:09:19.250 like a prop. And on a computer screen behind 00:09:19.250 --> 00:09:21.590 Pete Hegseth, it looked like they were just displaying 00:09:21.590 --> 00:09:23.789 tweets, not classified intel. The whole thing 00:09:23.789 --> 00:09:26.629 was staged. And the music choices for the social 00:09:26.629 --> 00:09:30.759 media videos... Just stunningly tone deaf. Completely 00:09:30.759 --> 00:09:34.440 ironic. One video used notorious B .I .G.'s Hypnotize, 00:09:34.759 --> 00:09:37.320 a song about violent retribution. Trump's highlight 00:09:37.320 --> 00:09:40.279 reel used Creedence Clearwater Revival's Fortunate 00:09:40.279 --> 00:09:42.980 Son. A song protesting rich kids avoiding military 00:09:42.980 --> 00:09:45.730 service. The irony is lost on no one. And then 00:09:45.730 --> 00:09:47.429 you get the chest -puffing quotes from people 00:09:47.429 --> 00:09:50.330 like Rubio and Egzef that Maduro effed around 00:09:50.330 --> 00:09:53.049 and found out. It's pure optics. So when we look 00:09:53.049 --> 00:09:54.889 at the official reasons for this, they feel, 00:09:54.929 --> 00:09:57.889 as one source put it, somewhere between not credible 00:09:57.889 --> 00:10:00.269 and surely not the full story. That's a good 00:10:00.269 --> 00:10:02.370 way to put it. Let's look at justification number 00:10:02.370 --> 00:10:04.889 one. Combating drug trafficking. They started 00:10:04.889 --> 00:10:07.809 with fentanyl claims. Which were factually incorrect. 00:10:07.889 --> 00:10:11.029 So they pivoted to cocaine. But linking Maduro 00:10:11.029 --> 00:10:14.840 directly to the drug trade is... complex. The 00:10:14.840 --> 00:10:16.879 federal indictment has been described as having 00:10:16.879 --> 00:10:20.179 very thin evidence. Plus, intelligence staffers 00:10:20.179 --> 00:10:22.220 have previously determined he does not control 00:10:22.220 --> 00:10:25.000 the main TDA cartel. And the whole drug justification 00:10:25.000 --> 00:10:27.179 is made more complicated by the fact that this 00:10:27.179 --> 00:10:30.620 administration just last year pardoned Juan Orlando 00:10:30.620 --> 00:10:33.779 Hernandez, the former Honduran president, arrested 00:10:33.779 --> 00:10:36.100 and convicted by the U .S. for drug trafficking. 00:10:36.220 --> 00:10:38.559 So it's an impossible moral position to hold. 00:10:38.600 --> 00:10:41.620 It is. The second official reason, oil and resources. 00:10:41.840 --> 00:10:44.179 gets a lot closer to the truth. Trump was very 00:10:44.179 --> 00:10:46.759 explicit. He said the oil business was a bust, 00:10:47.179 --> 00:10:49.299 and U .S. companies would go in, fix it, and 00:10:49.299 --> 00:10:51.419 start making money for the country. Right. And 00:10:51.419 --> 00:10:53.759 there's also substantial interest in Venezuela's 00:10:53.759 --> 00:10:55.980 gold reserves, which are easier to get out. So 00:10:55.980 --> 00:10:58.679 let's pivot from the official story to the alternative 00:10:58.679 --> 00:11:01.620 theories, the actual explanations. First, there's 00:11:01.620 --> 00:11:04.460 ego and legacy. This is about establishing a 00:11:04.460 --> 00:11:06.779 definitive foreign policy doctrine. The Don Roe 00:11:06.779 --> 00:11:09.580 doctrine. The Don Roe doctrine. Exactly. Then 00:11:09.580 --> 00:11:11.950 there's the Griff theory. This is about the financial 00:11:11.950 --> 00:11:14.190 interests of specific firms. We need to talk 00:11:14.190 --> 00:11:17.169 about Blue Water Acquisition Corporation, BWAC. 00:11:17.429 --> 00:11:19.490 What's their connection? They previously tried 00:11:19.490 --> 00:11:21.789 to acquire the Venezuelan -owned Citgo assets. 00:11:22.549 --> 00:11:26.750 The key detail now. is that BWAC is led by figures 00:11:26.750 --> 00:11:28.950 very closely entwined with the administration 00:11:28.950 --> 00:11:31.809 and Trump's media group. It raises the question 00:11:31.809 --> 00:11:34.049 of whether this was about forcibly privatizing 00:11:34.049 --> 00:11:36.830 Venezuelan assets. And there's tangible evidence 00:11:36.830 --> 00:11:39.509 suggesting someone had prior knowledge. Absolutely. 00:11:39.950 --> 00:11:42.590 The futures market. Someone created a brand new 00:11:42.590 --> 00:11:44.750 account on Polymarket, a prediction platform, 00:11:45.090 --> 00:11:48.179 just hours before the invasion. They placed a 00:11:48.179 --> 00:11:51.120 massive $30 ,000 bet that Maduro would be driven 00:11:51.120 --> 00:11:54.519 from power. And they collected over $436 ,000 00:11:54.519 --> 00:11:56.860 in profit a few hours later. That's nearly half 00:11:56.860 --> 00:11:58.879 a million dollars. That has all the appearance 00:11:58.879 --> 00:12:01.679 of someone with extremely timely inside information. 00:12:01.879 --> 00:12:04.179 It does. And finally, we can't ignore the idea 00:12:04.179 --> 00:12:07.299 of wagging the dog. A distraction. The timing 00:12:07.299 --> 00:12:09.600 was perfect to shift focus from domestic issues 00:12:09.600 --> 00:12:12.519 like the Epstein files, inflation, rising insurance 00:12:12.519 --> 00:12:15.340 prices. Distraction is always a powerful motivator. 00:12:15.450 --> 00:12:17.629 Here's where it gets really interesting. The 00:12:17.629 --> 00:12:20.509 impact beyond Venezuela. The new geopolitical 00:12:20.509 --> 00:12:23.750 shift. Trump stated the U .S. will run Venezuela 00:12:23.750 --> 00:12:26.429 until a new government is installed. This should 00:12:26.429 --> 00:12:28.830 give everyone pause. Remember the short -term 00:12:28.830 --> 00:12:32.789 commitments in the Philippines. 48 years. Afghanistan. 00:12:33.200 --> 00:12:36.539 20 years. This Don Roe Doctrine is a declaration 00:12:36.539 --> 00:12:39.100 that the U .S. is resuming large -scale military 00:12:39.100 --> 00:12:41.200 intervention in Latin America. And we're already 00:12:41.200 --> 00:12:44.039 seeing whispers of handshake deals. The U .S. 00:12:44.120 --> 00:12:47.480 gets Venezuela's oil. Russia gets a clearer shot 00:12:47.480 --> 00:12:49.960 at Iran's. And threats have already been hinted 00:12:49.960 --> 00:12:52.799 at for Mexico or Colombia next. We have to remember 00:12:52.799 --> 00:12:55.100 the history here. The original Monroe Doctrine 00:12:55.100 --> 00:12:58.580 was defensive. Europe stay out. The later Roosevelt 00:12:58.580 --> 00:13:01.039 Corollary was aggressive. It claimed the U .S. 00:13:01.080 --> 00:13:03.879 had the right to intervene. Post -World War II, 00:13:04.200 --> 00:13:06.399 the U .S. had mostly backed away from that. This 00:13:06.399 --> 00:13:08.419 administration is reviving it with extreme force. 00:13:08.639 --> 00:13:10.240 And the sobering warning from the sources is 00:13:10.240 --> 00:13:12.480 that the U .S. is historically terrible at nation 00:13:12.480 --> 00:13:14.899 building, especially in Latin America. If this 00:13:14.899 --> 00:13:16.600 administration tries to do this in Venezuela, 00:13:16.840 --> 00:13:19.700 Cuba, Colombia, it will geometrically progress 00:13:19.700 --> 00:13:21.980 toward failure. In terms of international reaction, 00:13:22.120 --> 00:13:25.179 it's been mostly critical. The one wrinkle is 00:13:25.179 --> 00:13:27.860 that French and German leaders were surprisingly 00:13:27.860 --> 00:13:30.759 positive. But that's likely about stabilizing 00:13:30.759 --> 00:13:33.700 oil markets, not approving of the legality. And 00:13:33.700 --> 00:13:36.539 domestically, there's zero rally around the flag 00:13:36.539 --> 00:13:39.379 effect. This wasn't Pearl Harbor or 9 -11. The 00:13:39.379 --> 00:13:41.820 U .S. wasn't attacked. Because of that, the political 00:13:41.820 --> 00:13:45.080 consensus is completely fractured. You have Schumer 00:13:45.080 --> 00:13:47.580 condemning it, Wasserman Schultz supporting it. 00:13:47.860 --> 00:13:49.980 On the Republican side, Kinzinger gives a thumbs 00:13:49.980 --> 00:13:52.019 up. Marjorie Taylor Greene gives a thumbs down. 00:13:52.159 --> 00:13:54.799 And that lack of unity is why Congress is already 00:13:54.799 --> 00:13:57.019 moving forward with a vote to strip the president's 00:13:57.019 --> 00:13:59.820 war authority here. The American people hate 00:13:59.820 --> 00:14:02.639 quagmires. If this turns into one, it will damage 00:14:02.639 --> 00:14:06.080 the administration significantly. Deeply. So 00:14:06.080 --> 00:14:08.659 to summarize the key insights from this deep 00:14:08.659 --> 00:14:11.620 dive, the most memorable elements have to be 00:14:11.620 --> 00:14:14.399 the absurdity of the staged Mar -a -Lago war 00:14:14.399 --> 00:14:17.320 room, the terrifying legal implications of the 00:14:17.320 --> 00:14:19.860 drugs as an imminent attack argument. And the 00:14:19.860 --> 00:14:22.600 instant public failure of their strategic replacement 00:14:22.600 --> 00:14:24.820 play. And the final provocative thought for you 00:14:24.820 --> 00:14:27.559 to carry forward. isn't about the oil or even 00:14:27.559 --> 00:14:30.740 Maduro, but about the legal foundation. The administration 00:14:30.740 --> 00:14:33.659 used two specific precedents, deferring the head 00:14:33.659 --> 00:14:35.940 -of -state decision to the executive and that 00:14:35.940 --> 00:14:38.659 wildly expansive interpretation of self -defense. 00:14:39.459 --> 00:14:42.220 Regardless of how Venezuela plays out, this action 00:14:42.220 --> 00:14:44.679 will likely stand as a precedent that effectively 00:14:44.679 --> 00:14:46.679 neuters critical constraints on presidential 00:14:46.679 --> 00:14:49.320 military power. It makes it terrifyingly easier 00:14:49.320 --> 00:14:51.399 for any future chief executive, Republican or 00:14:51.399 --> 00:14:54.000 Democrat to use the military with impunity, domestic 00:14:54.000 --> 00:14:56.700 and international law be damned. That is the 00:14:56.700 --> 00:14:59.480 true long -term geopolitical cost of Operation 00:14:59.480 --> 00:15:00.340 Absolute Resolve.