WEBVTT

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Welcome back to The Deep Dive. Today, we are

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really opening the blinds on a moment of profound

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political vulnerability. We are. We've got a

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hefty stack of sources, a massive analysis of

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a deeply controversial political interview, some

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strategic White House announcements, and maybe

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most importantly, brand new polling data. And

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we're going to show you how they all connect.

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Exactly. Our main focus is the fallout from Chief

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of Staff Susie Wiles' Vanity Fair interview.

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I mean, this wasn't just a quick chat. This was

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11 separate sessions. 11. Our mission today is

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to unpack this moment where it feels like political

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discipline just vanished. and to see how that

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internal chaos is hitting up against these very

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real external pressures, the economy, the election

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cycle. And the central document itself is just,

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it's bizarre. Wiles is famously in the shadows,

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right? Right, not a public figure. And she agrees

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to 11 sessions of this intense exposure, but

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the visual part is where the mystery really starts

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for me. Why did they let key figures, we're talking

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J .D. Vance, Marco Rubio, Stephen Miller, Carolyn

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Livett, Why did they let them do this high -investment

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photo shoot that just resulted in these deeply

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unflattering pictures? It was almost self -sabotage.

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Yeah. Visually. Yeah. The source analysis we

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have describes the whole thing as looking less

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like the White House and more like a chaotic

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promo for a third -rate dynasty reboot. That's

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a good way to put it. You have these shots highlighting

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crumpled suits, really awkward poses, and of

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course the internet just lit up with speculation.

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People were wondering if the photographers were

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doing it on purpose. Well, the details in the

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close -ups were what got me. The analysis pointed

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out that in some of the extreme close -ups, like

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on Caroline Leavitt, you could clearly see things

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like her lip filler injections. Wow. I mean,

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if you're investing all this time and political

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capital to project power and the result is this

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picture of profound disorder, Well, it really

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set the stage for the interview itself, didn't

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it? It absolutely did. It's like the administration

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handed the media shovel and Wiles just started

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digging. A very, very deep hole. The whole thing

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was an unfiltered bombshell. Right. So let's

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start with the character stuff and the internal

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politics, because that's where the discipline

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first really breaks down. The comments she made

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about the president's personality. and the people

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around him. She dropped this astonishing line

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that the president has an alcoholics personality.

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Which is incredible because he's a teetotaler.

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Exactly. Her point was he operates with that

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kind of high -confidence, reckless, boundary

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-pushing personality. And what's maybe even more

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remarkable is that the president apparently later

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agreed with her assessment. Still, to have your

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own shift of staff say that. It just validates

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every critic who says the administration is all

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impulse and no planning. It does. And her comments

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on the Inner Circle were just ruthless. Oh, yeah.

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JD Vance, who everyone sees as this potential

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successor, she calls him a political opportunist.

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a trumper for political reasons, and a conspiracy

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theorist for a decade. Wow. And then Russell

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Vaughn, the former OMB head. A right -wing absolute

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zealot. So the person who's supposed to be holding

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the team together is just publicly reducing her

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colleagues to caricatures. Exactly. And her attempt

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to clean it up later, calling herself Mother

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Hen over a bunch of junkyard personalities. Wow.

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It was just too little, too late. She confirmed

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all the infighting everyone already suspected

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was there. OK, so let's move from the internal

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drama to the policy admissions, because this

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is where things really start to change the public

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understanding of what this administration is

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trying to do. Venezuela, for example. This is

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critical. I mean, this goes right to the heart

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of executive power, use of military force. Wiles

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flatly contradicted the White House's public

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line. Which was that the aggressive actions were

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about stopping drug trafficking. Right. She came

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out and explicitly said the real goal is regime

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change. Her words were, to take down Nicolas

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Maduro. And the legal justification she gave

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for it is, well, it's alarming. It is. She said

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their actions are legal and they don't need Congress's

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permission yet. And then she defines war as something

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that only starts if there's an attack on land.

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That is the political time bomb in the statement.

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Right. I mean, if you define war as only starting

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with a land attack, you have drastically and

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probably illegally lowered the bar for military

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action at sea or in the air. So they believe

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they can run a blockade or do airstrikes without

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any congressional authorization. That's what

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her definition implies. It's a massive expansion

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of presidential war powers totally unchecked

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by the legislature. And she didn't stop there.

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She just kept conceding past errors. The whole

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Epstein fallout. Oh, she threw Pam Bondi, the

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former Florida AG, completely under the bus.

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Said Bondi misjudged the whole situation. And

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then admitted it was a mistake for the president

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to try and link Bill Clinton to it. Yep. She

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even conceded the president polled around with

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Epstein. Of course, she tried to dismiss it as

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just what young single playboys do. It's an incredible

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combination, isn't it? Admit the error, concede

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the association, and then offer this bizarre

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dismissive defense. It just undermines everything

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they had said before. And it was the same with

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immigration. She acknowledged specific damaging

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mistakes, like the deportation of a four -year

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-old with cancer, the Kilmar -Brigo -Garcia case,

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things the White House has always tried to deny

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or downplay. OK, what about tariffs and the whole

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retribution theme? because tariffs were a core

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promise. On tariffs, she admitted the whole process

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was haphazard and the results have been, quote,

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more painful than I expected. Which, again, just

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undercuts their whole economic success narrative.

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And on retribution, this is a big one. She confirmed

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it. said that while the president doesn't wake

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up plotting revenge when there's an opportunity,

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he will go for it. And then conceded the prosecutions

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of Letitia James and James Comey might be vindictive.

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You just, you do not hear a sitting chief of

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staff use the words might be vindictive to describe

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high profile political prosecutions. And she

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sort of capped it all off by explaining her job

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is just to enable the president. She completely

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rejected the traditional idea of a chief of staff

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being a check or a firewall. Which is basically

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a declaration that the operation is completely

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unbound. It's driven solely by the president's

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will. The fallout was, uh, immediate. Of course.

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Wiles gets on Twitter, calls it a disingenuously

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framed hit piece. A line that Levitt and the

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president then immediately parroted. But here's

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the thing. They haven't actually denied any of

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the quotes, have they? No. That's the kicker.

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They're claiming a lack of context, but they're

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not explaining how more context makes we want

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to take down Maduro sound any different. So they're

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basically admitting it's all true. They just

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wish she hadn't said it out loud. Pretty much.

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Which led to all the speculation. You know, why

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did she do it? Is she jumping ship? The source

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material says that's unlikely. She's too loyal.

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Is she trying to create a record for the history

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books? Probably not in a magazine interview.

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So the most likely theory is just. A total collapse

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of discipline. Yeah. She got a taste of the spotlight

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and just developed a case of political, verbal

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oversharing. She got carried away. Whatever the

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reason, the result is the same. A catastrophic

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breakdown in message control, especially after

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they've been so shockingly disciplined for 10

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months. And that chaos, of course, led to immediate

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damage control. Which brings us to their next

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strategic moves. That's right. The interview

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drops and just hours later, the president announces

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an address to the nation for the next night.

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That is not a coincidence. It's a desperate play

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to reset the narrative. So what do we think the

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address is going to be about? A few possibilities

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here. One, it could just be a sort of morale

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boosting all is well speech. Maybe announce some

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vague new initiative on jobs or health care.

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Another infrastructure week. Right. Or two, he

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could use it to put the full weight of the presidency

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behind that aggressive Venezuela strategy, while

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it's let slip. Officially announce the blockade

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of tankers, call Venezuela a terrorist regime.

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Elevate it from staff chatter to official doctrine.

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Exactly. And the third option is just pure damage

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control. Maybe try to preemptively label the

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upcoming Epstein files release as fake news or

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just dismiss the Wiles interview outright. A

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lot is going to depend on the delivery. The source

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material points to his physical position as the

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key tell. If he's sitting reading from a teleprompter,

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you're watching a controlled staff written speech

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by Miller or Rubio. If he's standing and sort

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of winging it. Well, then all bets are off. Speaking

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of calculated moves, we have to talk about the

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delicate political ballet that Senator JD Vance

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is doing right now. Oh, it is a textbook tightrope

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walk. He released that statement acknowledging

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the rough economy, but promising better times.

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Vance is acutely aware. of the data we're about

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to get into. He knows voters are unhappy. He

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knows that historically, when the economy is

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bad, you throw the bums out. And he sees a future

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for himself in 2026 or 2028. So he has to position

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himself as a change candidate. He has to show

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voters he gets their pain, even while he's part

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of an administration that's busy denying that

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pain exists. But that's so risky for him, isn't

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it? If he publicly says the economy is rough,

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isn't he risking the president's infamous wrath?

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It's an incredibly high stakes gamble. This isn't

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like a typical VP waiting in the wings. This

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president has shown he can just snap his fingers

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and make a Republican candidate radioactive with

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the base. So Vance has to create this distance

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on the economy, the number one issue, without

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triggering a personal attack that could just

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destroy his career. It requires a level of subtlety

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that, frankly, this administration has never

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been known for. OK, so let's shift from all that

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internal chaos and maneuvering to the cold hard

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data. Because while the administration is having

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a meltdown, the opposition seems to be executing

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a flawless player. And it is backed by polling

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that should have every Republican very, very

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nervous. This is the recent PBS NPR Marist poll.

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Yes. And it delivered what the source calls a

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political gift to the Democrats. The numbers

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are just striking. On the generic House ballot,

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it's 55 percent for the Democrat, 41 percent

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for the Republican. A 14 point spread. That's

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huge. It's monumental. It's the biggest margin

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Marist has recorded since the 2017 blue wave

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election. And what's driving it isn't just the

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base, it's independence. Exactly. Independence

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are breaking two to one for the Democrats, 61

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to 28 percent. Oh. I mean, when that swing demographic

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moves that dramatically. You have a systemic

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problem, not just a messaging issue. And the

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poll asks the essential question. What's driving

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this? And the answer is crystal clear. The top

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priority by a huge margin is lowering prices.

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Fifty seven percent. Fifty seven. Compare that

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to immigration at 16 or Israel -Gaza at six.

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It's a complete validation of the democratic

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strategy. For six months, they have been hammering

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on affordability, day in and day out. They have

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successfully captured the narrative on the one

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issue that almost six out of 10 voters care about

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most. And the president's personal numbers in

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that same poll are just as bad. Thirty nine percent

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approval, fifty six disapproving. Right. So the

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poll is not skewed. Those numbers are real. And

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we're seeing this confirmed in focus groups,

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too, right? With voters in swing states who used

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to support the president, but have flipped. Yes.

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And a very clear three part playbook has emerged

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from those conversations. It's the proof of concept

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for how Democrats can win. OK, what is it? The

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winning formula for governors elect like Sherrill

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and Spanberger was one, talk almost exclusively

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about kitchen table issues. Two, avoid negativity

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and finger pointing. And three, avoid any association

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with the more leftist elements of the party on

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social issues and immigration. That sounds like

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the general playbook for 2026. A strategy of

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disciplined focus, avoiding distractions. It's

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the starkest possible contrast to the total lack

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of discipline we just saw in the Wiles interview.

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And the actual economic data only makes this

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worse for them. It absolutely reinforces the

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peril. The promises made to blue collar workers

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are being directly undermined by the job numbers.

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We've seen a net loss of 65 ,000 blue collar

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jobs this year. In sectors like mining, transportation,

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manufacturing. All shrinking. with construction

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flat and unemployment is up to 4 .6 percent.

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That's the highest it's been since the pandemic.

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Before that, you have to go all the way back

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to 2017. So this data directly challenges their

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core claim of economic strength. And it feeds

00:12:22.019 --> 00:12:23.899
right into the Democratic message. They can say,

00:12:24.120 --> 00:12:26.639
see, we're the ones who can actually fix the

00:12:26.639 --> 00:12:28.700
affordability crisis and protect these jobs.

00:12:29.000 --> 00:12:31.700
If I were a Republican strategist, I would be

00:12:31.700 --> 00:12:34.000
extremely nervous right now. Yeah. The window

00:12:34.000 --> 00:12:36.539
to change this economic narrative is closing

00:12:36.539 --> 00:12:38.720
fast. So let's bring it all together for you.

00:12:39.139 --> 00:12:41.399
You have an administration struggling with these

00:12:41.399 --> 00:12:44.460
huge self -inflicted discipline failures. You've

00:12:44.460 --> 00:12:47.700
got internal chaos being broadcast to the world

00:12:47.700 --> 00:12:50.320
in the Wiles interview. You have key figures

00:12:50.320 --> 00:12:53.700
like Vance forced into this precarious political

00:12:53.700 --> 00:12:56.769
dance. And all of that is happening while the

00:12:56.769 --> 00:12:59.629
opposition is running a ruthlessly disciplined,

00:12:59.990 --> 00:13:02.350
highly effective campaign focused on the one

00:13:02.350 --> 00:13:05.450
thing voters care about, affordability. That's

00:13:05.450 --> 00:13:07.649
the central insight here. The Wiles interview,

00:13:07.649 --> 00:13:09.710
it didn't really reveal anything that insiders

00:13:09.710 --> 00:13:12.669
didn't already suspect about the chaos. But the

00:13:12.669 --> 00:13:15.350
external data that Marist poll confirms that

00:13:15.350 --> 00:13:17.789
this lack of discipline is translating directly

00:13:17.789 --> 00:13:19.629
into political danger. Because they can't control

00:13:19.629 --> 00:13:23.169
the narrative. They can't. When 57 % of voters

00:13:23.169 --> 00:13:25.230
are worried about prices, they don't have the

00:13:25.230 --> 00:13:28.129
luxury of distracting everyone with fights over

00:13:28.129 --> 00:13:30.409
whether the president has an alcoholic's personality.

00:13:31.129 --> 00:13:34.429
The kitchen table always wins. Which leaves us

00:13:34.429 --> 00:13:36.429
with a final provocative thought for you to consider.

00:13:37.049 --> 00:13:39.009
The administration's immediate reaction to the

00:13:39.009 --> 00:13:41.809
Wiles interview was panic. They amplified the

00:13:41.809 --> 00:13:44.169
story by trying to do damage control instead

00:13:44.169 --> 00:13:47.320
of just ignoring it. So considering the proven

00:13:47.320 --> 00:13:49.539
success of the Democratic laybook, just sticking

00:13:49.539 --> 00:13:51.759
to kitchen table issues and avoiding negativity,

00:13:52.440 --> 00:13:54.740
is the breakdown of Republican discipline actually

00:13:54.740 --> 00:13:56.720
more dangerous to their future than the substance

00:13:56.720 --> 00:13:59.879
of what Wiles actually said? And how do you even

00:13:59.879 --> 00:14:02.399
begin to correct a chronic lack of discipline

00:14:02.399 --> 00:14:05.100
when the leader himself sees that kind of unfiltered

00:14:05.100 --> 00:14:06.899
commentary as a core part of his strategy?
