WEBVTT 00:00:00.000 --> 00:00:03.180 Welcome to the Deep Dive. We have a really compelling 00:00:03.180 --> 00:00:05.480 stack of recent political research for you today, 00:00:05.480 --> 00:00:08.160 and it really details how the current administration 00:00:08.160 --> 00:00:10.880 is struggling against, while both external and 00:00:10.880 --> 00:00:13.359 internal pressures, our mission is pretty clear. 00:00:13.380 --> 00:00:15.880 We want to chart these unexpected election shifts, 00:00:16.420 --> 00:00:20.480 analyze the instability at high levels, and scrutinize 00:00:20.480 --> 00:00:22.480 this messaging war over the economy. We want 00:00:22.480 --> 00:00:24.079 to give you that fast track to understanding 00:00:24.079 --> 00:00:26.539 the real fault lines opening up. And what's fascinating 00:00:26.539 --> 00:00:28.719 here when you pull all the reports together is 00:00:28.719 --> 00:00:33.350 this central conflict that emerges. A significant 00:00:33.350 --> 00:00:36.109 gap has opened up between what the party leadership 00:00:36.109 --> 00:00:39.030 is demanding, specifically the Trump -aligned 00:00:39.030 --> 00:00:41.670 wing, and the actual sentiments of the voters 00:00:41.670 --> 00:00:43.590 on the ground. So it's a squeeze. A tremendous 00:00:43.590 --> 00:00:45.490 squeeze. It's putting key Republican figures 00:00:45.490 --> 00:00:47.869 squarely between a rock and a hard place. The 00:00:47.869 --> 00:00:50.109 rock is that demand for purity and loyalty from 00:00:50.109 --> 00:00:52.409 the top. And a hard place is the electorate's 00:00:52.409 --> 00:00:54.630 growing frustration. Okay, let's unpack that 00:00:54.630 --> 00:00:56.250 squeeze. We'll start with the data points that 00:00:56.250 --> 00:00:58.750 kick this all off, those really surprising election 00:00:58.750 --> 00:01:01.429 results in Florida and Georgia. Then we can pivot 00:01:01.429 --> 00:01:04.129 to the instability inside Washington, both the 00:01:04.129 --> 00:01:07.069 criticism aimed at Speaker Johnson and that revolving 00:01:07.069 --> 00:01:09.510 door in the cabinet. And finally, we'll look 00:01:09.510 --> 00:01:11.469 at the administration's new strategy to tackle 00:01:11.469 --> 00:01:14.590 voter concerns on the cost of living. So let's 00:01:14.590 --> 00:01:16.930 start on the ground. the electoral front. We 00:01:16.930 --> 00:01:18.890 begin with a really consequential result out 00:01:18.890 --> 00:01:21.650 of Miami. It was an officially nonpartisan mayoral 00:01:21.650 --> 00:01:24.790 race, but everyone saw it as a proxy fight. And 00:01:24.790 --> 00:01:27.230 the result, Eileen Higgins, the Democrat -leaning 00:01:27.230 --> 00:01:30.250 candidate, she absolutely trounced Emilio T. 00:01:30.349 --> 00:01:34.030 Gonzalez 59 % to 41%. That's an 18 -point margin. 00:01:34.370 --> 00:01:37.629 The historical context here is, well, it's everything. 00:01:37.849 --> 00:01:39.870 The sources confirm this is the first time in 00:01:39.870 --> 00:01:42.450 nearly three decades that a Democrat -aligned 00:01:42.450 --> 00:01:44.909 candidate has won the Miami mayoralty. It's a 00:01:44.909 --> 00:01:47.469 massive partisan flip. But the implications for 00:01:47.469 --> 00:01:51.090 the GOP strategy for 2026 -2028, they're even 00:01:51.090 --> 00:01:53.150 bigger than just this local law. OK, let's dive 00:01:53.150 --> 00:01:54.969 into those, because they seem to challenge some 00:01:54.969 --> 00:01:57.189 core assumptions about the Republican base. There 00:01:57.189 --> 00:02:00.170 are two major takeaways. First, implication A, 00:02:00.590 --> 00:02:04.549 the Latino voting bloc. You know, political strategists 00:02:04.549 --> 00:02:06.349 often talk about the Latino vote as this one 00:02:06.349 --> 00:02:09.099 single group. But Miami is unique. The sources 00:02:09.099 --> 00:02:11.759 remind us that Miami Latinos, who are overwhelmingly 00:02:11.759 --> 00:02:14.659 Cuban in origin, are historically the most reliably 00:02:14.659 --> 00:02:16.960 conservative among that demographic. Right. And 00:02:16.960 --> 00:02:19.819 so if this group is hopping off the S .S. Trump, 00:02:20.360 --> 00:02:24.180 as one report put it, it just completely undermines 00:02:24.180 --> 00:02:26.460 the assumptions baked into those new district 00:02:26.460 --> 00:02:28.879 maps in Texas and Florida. Precisely. It throws 00:02:28.879 --> 00:02:30.879 all that calculus out the window. Then there's 00:02:30.879 --> 00:02:33.159 implication B, which is about polarization itself. 00:02:33.840 --> 00:02:36.300 Historically, Miami candidates succeeded by being 00:02:36.300 --> 00:02:38.659 pragmatic. They'd kind of obscure their party 00:02:38.659 --> 00:02:42.039 loyalties to focus on local, urban needs. The 00:02:42.039 --> 00:02:44.219 previous mayor, Francis Suarez, was a Republican, 00:02:44.280 --> 00:02:47.159 but he fit that moderate city -focused mold. 00:02:47.319 --> 00:02:49.360 But this election was different. Fundamentally 00:02:49.360 --> 00:02:51.219 different. As one of our readers, as CF noted, 00:02:51.580 --> 00:02:53.000 the Republican -aligned candidate, Gonzalez, 00:02:53.120 --> 00:02:55.759 he abandoned all that pragmatism. He went hard 00:02:55.759 --> 00:02:58.370 right with zero ambiguity. And the sources are 00:02:58.370 --> 00:03:00.530 really clear that he ran a campaign based on 00:03:00.530 --> 00:03:03.229 these national purity tests, reportedly using 00:03:03.229 --> 00:03:05.729 some extreme language, even painting Higgins 00:03:05.729 --> 00:03:08.090 as a communist pinko in his ads. That's right. 00:03:08.169 --> 00:03:10.509 And that uncompromising, hard -right approach. 00:03:10.719 --> 00:03:12.900 When you put it to a local governance test, it 00:03:12.900 --> 00:03:14.939 appears to have just failed spectacularly. I 00:03:14.939 --> 00:03:17.300 mean, it led directly to that crushing 18 -point 00:03:17.300 --> 00:03:20.300 defeat. It suggests voters want local problem 00:03:20.300 --> 00:03:22.479 solvers, not just national culture warriors. 00:03:22.780 --> 00:03:25.180 So that's the dynamic in a big polarized city. 00:03:25.479 --> 00:03:27.620 Let's see if that theory holds up in a more rural 00:03:27.620 --> 00:03:30.319 area. We'll shift now to Georgia, specifically 00:03:30.319 --> 00:03:32.379 the special election for Statehouse District 00:03:32.379 --> 00:03:35.909 121. The Democrat, Eric Gisler, looks to have 00:03:35.909 --> 00:03:40.050 narrowly won 51 -49 % over Republican Mac Dutch 00:03:40.050 --> 00:03:42.919 Guest IV. This was a small election, fewer than 00:03:42.919 --> 00:03:45.500 12 ,000 votes were cast. But the swing is what 00:03:45.500 --> 00:03:47.840 matters. Just over a year ago, Donald Trump won 00:03:47.840 --> 00:03:50.659 this exact district by a huge 12 -point margin. 00:03:50.860 --> 00:03:52.740 So that 12 -point shift towards the Democrats, 00:03:52.819 --> 00:03:54.699 it's really consistent with what we've been seeing 00:03:54.699 --> 00:03:57.139 in other special elections across Georgia. But 00:03:57.139 --> 00:04:00.280 wait, are we sure this isn't just local factors 00:04:00.280 --> 00:04:02.860 at play? How reliable is one special election 00:04:02.860 --> 00:04:05.439 with so few votes as a national indicator? That 00:04:05.439 --> 00:04:07.919 is a critical question. And the analysis shows 00:04:07.919 --> 00:04:10.039 that, look, you can't rely on it alone, but when 00:04:10.039 --> 00:04:12.340 you see a consistent pattern of special elections 00:04:12.340 --> 00:04:15.180 showing these double -digit swings, that tells 00:04:15.180 --> 00:04:17.660 you something. It indicates a significant shift 00:04:17.660 --> 00:04:20.079 in motivation and turnout. And the reports say 00:04:20.079 --> 00:04:22.519 it's not coming from new Democrats. It's coming 00:04:22.519 --> 00:04:26.620 from two groups. Suburban, non -magier Republicans 00:04:26.620 --> 00:04:29.319 who are bleeding away support and Democrats who 00:04:29.319 --> 00:04:31.160 are just turning out in much higher numbers than 00:04:31.160 --> 00:04:33.439 they ever have for these small off -year races. 00:04:33.819 --> 00:04:36.019 So when you connect the docs, what's the consensus? 00:04:36.160 --> 00:04:38.449 What's the bigger implication here? The pattern 00:04:38.449 --> 00:04:41.730 is a major red flag for the GOP. If this trend 00:04:41.730 --> 00:04:44.689 holds until next November, well, the report suggests 00:04:44.689 --> 00:04:46.810 it would spell disaster. Analysts are predicting 00:04:46.810 --> 00:04:48.990 a sure loss of the House, maybe even a Senate 00:04:48.990 --> 00:04:51.430 flip. And this data has to be especially relevant 00:04:51.430 --> 00:04:53.490 for that Georgia Senate race where Jon Ossoff 00:04:53.490 --> 00:04:55.870 is defending his seat. I mean, the DSCC, the 00:04:55.870 --> 00:04:58.060 Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee... They 00:04:58.060 --> 00:05:00.000 have to feel very confident about mobilizing 00:05:00.000 --> 00:05:02.639 their base right now. OK, so moving from those 00:05:02.639 --> 00:05:05.160 external electoral problems to the internal ones, 00:05:05.819 --> 00:05:08.540 let's shift our focus to Washington. We have 00:05:08.540 --> 00:05:10.959 multiple sources detailing what they call withering 00:05:10.959 --> 00:05:13.699 fire being aimed at House Speaker Mike Johnson, 00:05:13.879 --> 00:05:16.579 and it's coming mostly from his own party. The 00:05:16.579 --> 00:05:20.240 evidence of his lost control. It's just overwhelming. 00:05:20.319 --> 00:05:23.180 He's caught in all these legislative traps. For 00:05:23.180 --> 00:05:25.660 example, you have the budget hawks demanding 00:05:25.660 --> 00:05:28.939 deep cuts to social programs. And then you have 00:05:28.939 --> 00:05:31.199 the swing district members insisting that Republicans 00:05:31.199 --> 00:05:33.699 have to soften that blow, especially on something 00:05:33.699 --> 00:05:35.660 like health care. And on the hot button issues, 00:05:35.699 --> 00:05:38.680 it's no better. He's facing this specific anger 00:05:38.680 --> 00:05:41.920 from the Freedom Caucus over the anti -CBDC surveillance 00:05:41.920 --> 00:05:44.220 state act. Right. And just to clarify for everyone, 00:05:44.800 --> 00:05:47.769 CBDC is central bank digital currency. This bill 00:05:47.769 --> 00:05:50.410 is a huge priority for hardliners. They see it 00:05:50.410 --> 00:05:52.230 as stopping the government from creating a digital 00:05:52.230 --> 00:05:54.410 dollar that could be used for, you know, massive 00:05:54.410 --> 00:05:56.870 financial surveillance. Johnson included this 00:05:56.870 --> 00:05:59.009 popular measure in a defense bill, one that was 00:05:59.009 --> 00:06:01.089 never going to become law, but he left it out 00:06:01.089 --> 00:06:03.370 of the must pass defense bill. It was a procedural 00:06:03.370 --> 00:06:05.410 sleight of hand. Exactly. And the Freedom Caucus 00:06:05.410 --> 00:06:07.370 is hopping mad. They feel he's just protecting 00:06:07.370 --> 00:06:09.209 the establishment. It really sounds like his 00:06:09.209 --> 00:06:11.769 authority is just eroding by the day. It is. 00:06:12.310 --> 00:06:14.529 The sources show these unprecedented challenges 00:06:14.529 --> 00:06:17.990 to his leadership. Johnson has faced five discharge 00:06:17.990 --> 00:06:21.189 petitions in his short tenure. Now, for context, 00:06:21.810 --> 00:06:23.649 in the three decades before he got the gavel, 00:06:24.069 --> 00:06:27.730 the House only had four discharge petitions total. 00:06:28.529 --> 00:06:30.810 So that mechanism, it's a symbol of a speaker 00:06:30.810 --> 00:06:33.649 losing complete control. And censure motions 00:06:33.649 --> 00:06:35.889 are being used constantly to snipe at colleagues, 00:06:36.449 --> 00:06:39.149 which wastes time and makes Johnson look ineffective. 00:06:39.329 --> 00:06:41.470 And the criticism is so public now, which is 00:06:41.470 --> 00:06:43.949 rare. You had Representative Elise Stefanik calling 00:06:43.949 --> 00:06:47.350 him an ineffective leader. Then Nancy Mace blasted 00:06:47.350 --> 00:06:49.490 him for marginalizing women, saying he was only 00:06:49.490 --> 00:06:51.750 a slight improvement over McCarthy. And other 00:06:51.750 --> 00:06:53.490 Republican women in the conference apparently 00:06:53.490 --> 00:06:56.009 agree. Analysts have four core theories for why 00:06:56.009 --> 00:06:58.269 this is happening, beyond just policy disagreements. 00:06:58.370 --> 00:07:01.069 Okay, theory one. He's a scapegoat. Members can't 00:07:01.069 --> 00:07:03.449 safely blame Donald Trump for the bad polls and 00:07:03.449 --> 00:07:05.970 election results we just talked about. So Johnson 00:07:05.970 --> 00:07:09.769 becomes the safest target. Theory two. He's become 00:07:09.769 --> 00:07:13.129 Trump's subsidiary, not a partner. He's totally 00:07:13.129 --> 00:07:15.970 subservient. The speaker's job historically is 00:07:15.970 --> 00:07:18.509 to be a firewall, to protect members and give 00:07:18.509 --> 00:07:21.050 them room to legislate. By not doing that, he 00:07:21.050 --> 00:07:23.629 leaves his members feeling powerless and totally 00:07:23.629 --> 00:07:25.949 exposed to the demands coming from Mar -a -Lago. 00:07:26.160 --> 00:07:28.839 Then there's theory three, this clash of worldviews. 00:07:29.100 --> 00:07:31.500 The sources point out that Johnson's deep evangelical 00:07:31.500 --> 00:07:34.379 beliefs, his approach to dealing with women, 00:07:34.819 --> 00:07:37.220 it can be perceived as a kind of 19th century 00:07:37.220 --> 00:07:40.019 patriarchal mindset, which comes off as patronizing 00:07:40.019 --> 00:07:43.180 to women like Mace, who operate with a 21st century 00:07:43.180 --> 00:07:45.800 egalitarian view. Right. And regardless of his 00:07:45.800 --> 00:07:48.319 intent, if he fails to adapt to modern norms 00:07:48.319 --> 00:07:50.540 of collaboration, that is the political consequence. 00:07:50.620 --> 00:07:52.680 What's the last one? And theory four is simply 00:07:52.680 --> 00:07:55.220 that he's a below average performer in an imposter 00:07:55.220 --> 00:07:57.689 job. He didn't earn the gavel, he was a compromise 00:07:57.689 --> 00:08:00.310 choice, managing a tiny majority, a fractured 00:08:00.310 --> 00:08:02.970 conference, and a very demanding president. It's 00:08:02.970 --> 00:08:04.870 an impossible task, and his performance just 00:08:04.870 --> 00:08:07.310 isn't holding it all together. All this instability 00:08:07.310 --> 00:08:09.689 is leading to another huge problem, this mass 00:08:09.689 --> 00:08:12.529 retirement wave. 23 Republicans have decided 00:08:12.529 --> 00:08:15.170 not to run again, and four have resigned early. 00:08:15.290 --> 00:08:17.910 And here's the real kicker. These departing members 00:08:17.910 --> 00:08:20.430 are disproportionately committee chairs and people 00:08:20.430 --> 00:08:23.209 in their 40s and 50s. This is the next generation 00:08:23.209 --> 00:08:26.560 of party leaders and experts. Losing them creates 00:08:26.560 --> 00:08:29.199 deep, long -term structural problems for the 00:08:29.199 --> 00:08:32.480 GOP. And at the same time, it opens up more opportunities 00:08:32.480 --> 00:08:34.840 for Democratic pickups. And we can't forget the 00:08:34.840 --> 00:08:37.620 immediate danger. The House majority is razor 00:08:37.620 --> 00:08:42.279 thin, 220 Republican, 213 Democrat. It might 00:08:42.279 --> 00:08:45.559 even temporarily drop to 219 to 215. So any more 00:08:45.559 --> 00:08:47.879 resignations, like the ones threatened by Mace 00:08:47.879 --> 00:08:50.700 or Don Bacon. It could theoretically flip control 00:08:50.700 --> 00:08:52.600 of the House, even if just for a short time. 00:08:52.840 --> 00:08:55.039 That level of instability is just... unprecedented. 00:08:55.299 --> 00:08:57.080 And that instability, it doesn't stop with Congress. 00:08:57.159 --> 00:08:59.179 It goes right to the executive branch. Trump 00:08:59.179 --> 00:09:01.120 apparently decreed that every cabinet member 00:09:01.120 --> 00:09:03.340 would make it to at least the one year mark while 00:09:03.340 --> 00:09:05.700 that anniversary is coming up fast. And since 00:09:05.700 --> 00:09:08.100 Trump's problems are never his own fault, the 00:09:08.100 --> 00:09:10.460 expectation is that he's actively looking for 00:09:10.460 --> 00:09:12.679 scapegoats. You can see this reflected in the 00:09:12.679 --> 00:09:15.159 predicted betting markets, which track political 00:09:15.159 --> 00:09:17.620 risk. The market is focused on who will be the 00:09:17.620 --> 00:09:19.559 first to leave. And what's so interesting is 00:09:19.559 --> 00:09:21.600 that you see positions on there that are usually 00:09:21.600 --> 00:09:25.559 stable, like Secretary of Energy. commerce, even 00:09:25.559 --> 00:09:29.179 treasury. That signals a belief inside the Beltway 00:09:29.179 --> 00:09:31.480 that the firing clock is ticking for everyone. 00:09:31.779 --> 00:09:33.879 But the two names that keep coming up are Secretary 00:09:33.879 --> 00:09:37.580 of Defense Pete Hegseth and our focus today, 00:09:37.899 --> 00:09:40.960 DHS Secretary Kristi Noem. The sources suggest 00:09:40.960 --> 00:09:43.460 she is deep in the doghouse. Oh, there are a 00:09:43.460 --> 00:09:45.080 dizzying number of things working against her. 00:09:45.379 --> 00:09:48.000 First, her inner circle. Her chief advisor and 00:09:48.000 --> 00:09:50.840 lover, Corey Lewandowski, has a huge target on 00:09:50.840 --> 00:09:53.620 his back. His ego, his clashes with White House 00:09:53.620 --> 00:09:57.279 staff. That target extends directly to Noem herself. 00:09:57.659 --> 00:09:59.580 And second, while she has been fanatical about 00:09:59.580 --> 00:10:02.120 imposing Trump's anti -immigrant agenda, she's 00:10:02.120 --> 00:10:03.840 apparently done it in a way that's politically 00:10:03.840 --> 00:10:07.500 unpopular with moderates. Exactly. Trump seems 00:10:07.500 --> 00:10:09.720 to live in this world where he believes these 00:10:09.720 --> 00:10:12.820 enforcement actions can be done in a way that 00:10:12.820 --> 00:10:16.240 the American people will love. Love, love. S. 00:10:16.539 --> 00:10:18.639 And the analysis suggests he might genuinely 00:10:18.639 --> 00:10:20.679 think someone else is needed to pull that off 00:10:20.679 --> 00:10:22.980 without the political blowback. And speaking 00:10:22.980 --> 00:10:25.620 of someone else, former Governor Glenn Youngkin 00:10:25.620 --> 00:10:28.399 becomes available on January 15th. Trump is known 00:10:28.399 --> 00:10:31.179 to have more respect for male businessmen. And 00:10:31.179 --> 00:10:33.759 on top of that, Noem has had these embarrassing 00:10:33.759 --> 00:10:36.820 moments, not knowing the meaning of habeas corpus, 00:10:37.080 --> 00:10:39.399 wearing that ridiculous sombrero things that 00:10:39.399 --> 00:10:41.340 stick in the president's mind. It sounds absurd. 00:10:41.629 --> 00:10:44.110 But in this political environment, those little 00:10:44.110 --> 00:10:46.990 things make her highly replaceable. If powerful 00:10:46.990 --> 00:10:49.669 figures like Stephen Miller or Laura Loomer decide 00:10:49.669 --> 00:10:52.090 she's not loyal enough, the analysts conclude 00:10:52.090 --> 00:10:54.529 she's likely done for. The currency is total 00:10:54.529 --> 00:10:57.429 loyalty and hers is seen as compromised. So with 00:10:57.429 --> 00:11:00.250 all this trouble bad elections, a chaotic Congress, 00:11:00.629 --> 00:11:02.710 cabinet drama, the administration is clearly 00:11:02.710 --> 00:11:05.649 pivoting. The sources are detailing a new aggressive 00:11:05.649 --> 00:11:08.389 strategy focused on economic messaging. We saw 00:11:08.389 --> 00:11:09.950 it in the president's recent speech in Mount 00:11:09.950 --> 00:11:12.730 Pocono, Pennsylvania. This speech was an absolute 00:11:12.730 --> 00:11:16.210 necessity. Advisors are reportedly gravely worried 00:11:16.210 --> 00:11:19.090 that voter concerns about high prices, what they're 00:11:19.090 --> 00:11:21.870 calling affordability, are dragging down the 00:11:21.870 --> 00:11:24.259 presidency. You remember those midterm losses 00:11:24.259 --> 00:11:26.480 in New Jersey and Virginia where affordability 00:11:26.480 --> 00:11:29.259 was the number one issue? They do not want a 00:11:29.259 --> 00:11:31.659 repeat of that. And the messaging shift is dramatic. 00:11:32.100 --> 00:11:34.840 Trump went from giving himself an A++++ on the 00:11:34.840 --> 00:11:38.539 economy to now. Well, now it's all about aggressively 00:11:38.539 --> 00:11:41.179 blaming the Democrats. He did not hold back. 00:11:41.500 --> 00:11:43.899 He blamed Democrats for inflation. He called 00:11:43.899 --> 00:11:46.820 the affordability concern a new hoax. He even 00:11:46.820 --> 00:11:48.659 said that Democrats talking about affordability 00:11:48.659 --> 00:11:50.899 is like Bonnie and Clyde preaching about public 00:11:50.899 --> 00:11:54.120 safety. This is a deliberate strategy to reframe 00:11:54.120 --> 00:11:57.139 the whole conversation. He also touted the GOP's 00:11:57.139 --> 00:11:59.259 bill -cutting taxes on tips and Social Security 00:11:59.259 --> 00:12:02.100 income and pointed to the stock market. And he 00:12:02.100 --> 00:12:05.159 made a very concrete promise that energy prices 00:12:05.159 --> 00:12:07.679 will soon drop because of massive domestic drilling. 00:12:07.919 --> 00:12:10.080 The reports say this speech was a top -down directive 00:12:10.080 --> 00:12:12.240 from Chief of Staff Susie Wiles to help preserve 00:12:12.240 --> 00:12:14.440 Republican majorities. But the real question 00:12:14.440 --> 00:12:16.500 is, can this messaging actually break through? 00:12:16.669 --> 00:12:18.750 Right. That's the core contradiction. He's talking 00:12:18.750 --> 00:12:20.309 about the stock market, which is great if you're 00:12:20.309 --> 00:12:22.929 an investor. But how does that land with the 00:12:22.929 --> 00:12:25.629 average person worried about groceries? Not well, 00:12:25.809 --> 00:12:28.750 according to the data. Polls show massive skepticism. 00:12:29.350 --> 00:12:32.009 The president's overall approval is only 41 percent. 00:12:32.049 --> 00:12:35.029 And on the economy, it's even lower at 37 percent. 00:12:35.309 --> 00:12:38.289 And here's the killer stat. A recent Fox News 00:12:38.289 --> 00:12:41.009 survey showed 76 percent of voters viewed the 00:12:41.009 --> 00:12:44.110 economy negatively. That chasm between the president's 00:12:44.110 --> 00:12:46.149 self -assessment and the reality voters are living? 00:12:46.700 --> 00:12:48.539 That's what this new strategy has to bridge. 00:12:48.879 --> 00:12:51.059 And despite the messaging goal, the speech itself 00:12:51.059 --> 00:12:53.960 was classic base rallying. He attacked former 00:12:53.960 --> 00:12:56.059 President Biden's use of the auto pin, said he'd 00:12:56.059 --> 00:12:58.259 closed the border, banned transgender athletes 00:12:58.259 --> 00:13:01.019 and attacked Representative Ilhan Omar, which 00:13:01.019 --> 00:13:03.519 led to those send her back chants. He did use 00:13:03.519 --> 00:13:05.740 the moment to announce 12 billion dollars in 00:13:05.740 --> 00:13:08.519 aid for struggling farmers. So a clear push for 00:13:08.519 --> 00:13:10.200 agricultural support there. So we've covered 00:13:10.200 --> 00:13:12.240 a lot of ground today. Electoral losses in places 00:13:12.240 --> 00:13:14.419 like Miami and Georgia, a vulnerable speaker, 00:13:14.659 --> 00:13:16.000 cabinet members looking over their shoulder. 00:13:15.980 --> 00:13:18.240 all of it being countered by this really determined 00:13:18.240 --> 00:13:20.440 attempt to reshape the narrative on the economy. 00:13:21.059 --> 00:13:23.080 The common thread, the thing you see in all these 00:13:23.080 --> 00:13:26.220 sources, is that central conflict. Republican 00:13:26.220 --> 00:13:28.460 politicians are stuck navigating the demands 00:13:28.460 --> 00:13:31.259 of Donald Trump. That's the rock. And the growing 00:13:31.259 --> 00:13:33.419 frustration of the voters, that's the hard place. 00:13:33.940 --> 00:13:35.659 And the recent data from Georgia and Florida 00:13:35.659 --> 00:13:38.240 suggest that maintaining that balance might be 00:13:38.240 --> 00:13:41.220 rapidly becoming impossible. And that shift toward 00:13:41.220 --> 00:13:43.909 hard right unambiguous campaigning that failed 00:13:43.909 --> 00:13:47.490 so spectacularly in Miami, it raises a really 00:13:47.490 --> 00:13:50.169 deep structural question. If candidates lose 00:13:50.169 --> 00:13:52.850 by 18 points when they abandon local pragmatism 00:13:52.850 --> 00:13:55.129 for national purity tests, does that mean the 00:13:55.129 --> 00:13:57.870 current Nebraska Republican model is actively 00:13:57.870 --> 00:14:00.909 unfit for governing diverse modern cities? You 00:14:00.909 --> 00:14:03.029 just have to wonder how long national party pressure 00:14:03.029 --> 00:14:05.149 can override local voter preference before the 00:14:05.149 --> 00:14:06.909 electoral shifts we discussed today become the 00:14:06.909 --> 00:14:08.970 ironclad rule and not just the exception.