WEBVTT 00:00:00.000 --> 00:00:03.600 Welcome to the Deep Dive. Today, we are tackling 00:00:03.600 --> 00:00:06.419 a stack of sources that really presents a radical 00:00:06.419 --> 00:00:08.599 split screen of reality. It's pretty jarring, 00:00:08.720 --> 00:00:11.339 isn't it? It is. On one side, you've got these 00:00:11.339 --> 00:00:15.660 high stakes, incredibly emotional political controversies 00:00:15.660 --> 00:00:18.399 just dominating the news cycle. And on the other, 00:00:18.579 --> 00:00:23.199 you have the cold hard structural data of global 00:00:23.199 --> 00:00:27.120 macroeconomics. It's pointing to a very definite 00:00:27.120 --> 00:00:34.159 future. the, let's say, analytical desk of a 00:00:34.159 --> 00:00:36.299 quant investor. But we have to bridge that gap. 00:00:36.380 --> 00:00:37.960 I mean, our whole mission in this deep dive is 00:00:37.960 --> 00:00:39.840 to cut through that immediate political noise. 00:00:39.880 --> 00:00:42.640 Right. Things like the tragedy in DC, the weaponization 00:00:42.640 --> 00:00:44.939 of federal agencies. We need to see the systemic 00:00:44.939 --> 00:00:47.619 actions being taken. But then, yeah, pivot completely. 00:00:47.679 --> 00:00:50.240 And decipher the economic forecast that's quietly 00:00:50.240 --> 00:00:52.060 driving everything under the surface. Exactly. 00:00:52.259 --> 00:00:54.039 So we're looking at three core topics today. 00:00:54.240 --> 00:00:57.340 First, that political reaction, the immediate 00:00:57.340 --> 00:00:59.600 scapegoating that followed the Beckstrom tragedy. 00:00:59.920 --> 00:01:02.520 Then we'll get into a detailed look at how specific, 00:01:02.899 --> 00:01:05.560 and often pretty obscure, federal agencies are 00:01:05.560 --> 00:01:08.540 being weaponized for political gain. And finally, 00:01:08.780 --> 00:01:11.340 we make that big shift to the markets, to the 00:01:11.340 --> 00:01:14.299 prediction of a coming Quad Four economic environment. 00:01:14.519 --> 00:01:17.439 So let's start with the immediate reality of 00:01:17.439 --> 00:01:19.700 that political firestorm. OK, let's unpack this. 00:01:20.079 --> 00:01:22.620 The flashpoint is the recent shooting in D .C. 00:01:22.680 --> 00:01:24.780 that resulted in the death of National Guard 00:01:24.780 --> 00:01:27.299 member Sarah Beckstrom. She was only 20 years 00:01:27.299 --> 00:01:30.239 old from West Virginia. And the shooter was identified 00:01:30.239 --> 00:01:33.959 as Rahmanullah Lakanwal, an Afghan who is relocated 00:01:33.959 --> 00:01:37.400 here under Operation Allies Welcome. The political 00:01:37.400 --> 00:01:39.920 response was, I mean, it was instantaneous. And 00:01:39.920 --> 00:01:42.519 very targeted. The initial argument from the 00:01:42.519 --> 00:01:45.099 opposition really hit two main points. What were 00:01:45.099 --> 00:01:48.019 they? First, that the program Operation Allies 00:01:48.019 --> 00:01:49.900 Welcome should have never existed in the first 00:01:49.900 --> 00:01:52.200 place. And second, that the vetting was just 00:01:52.200 --> 00:01:54.579 poor. OK, so let's dig into that. What's the 00:01:54.579 --> 00:01:57.420 context for a program like this? Well, it's a 00:01:57.420 --> 00:02:01.379 common, if you know, morally complex wartime 00:02:01.379 --> 00:02:03.840 trade off. These programs are designed to quickly 00:02:03.840 --> 00:02:06.950 move locals who help the U .S. military. Translators' 00:02:07.209 --> 00:02:09.810 intelligence assets. Exactly. Move them to the 00:02:09.810 --> 00:02:12.069 front of the immigration line. It's partly a 00:02:12.069 --> 00:02:13.689 thank you, but it's also critical to protect 00:02:13.689 --> 00:02:15.909 them from retaliation. In this case, from the 00:02:15.909 --> 00:02:18.069 Taliban. So we've seen this before. Oh, yeah. 00:02:18.430 --> 00:02:20.349 Similar things happen during the Iraq War. It's 00:02:20.349 --> 00:02:22.610 a calculation, right? You're trading the risk 00:02:22.610 --> 00:02:25.629 of importing a few potential problems to protect 00:02:25.629 --> 00:02:28.509 thousands of lives, both American and local allied 00:02:28.509 --> 00:02:30.800 lives. And what about that vetting argument? 00:02:31.199 --> 00:02:33.939 It seems to always focus on the one failure to 00:02:33.939 --> 00:02:36.699 define the whole system. And that's the thing. 00:02:36.719 --> 00:02:39.639 You have to look at the numbers. Around 120 ,000 00:02:39.639 --> 00:02:41.939 people came over through Operation Allies Welcome. 00:02:42.199 --> 00:02:45.620 OK. So if Lock and Walls is that one tragic exception, 00:02:46.280 --> 00:02:50.400 that means the system had a 99 .99916 % success 00:02:50.400 --> 00:02:53.180 rate. That's an incredibly robust safety margin. 00:02:53.300 --> 00:02:56.300 It is. But the narrative is just driven by the 00:02:56.300 --> 00:02:59.250 failure. And what's more, the political blame 00:02:59.250 --> 00:03:03.289 aimed at the previous administration gets complicated 00:03:03.289 --> 00:03:06.090 by the timeline. How so? Lock and Wall's final 00:03:06.090 --> 00:03:08.050 asylum approval came through in April. Which 00:03:08.050 --> 00:03:10.210 was after the current administration took office 00:03:10.210 --> 00:03:14.150 on January 20th. Exactly. So the blame game isn't 00:03:14.150 --> 00:03:17.020 as simple as it's being presented. But even with 00:03:17.020 --> 00:03:18.800 statistics like that, the political impact of 00:03:18.800 --> 00:03:21.979 one tragic event, especially, you know, when 00:03:21.979 --> 00:03:24.659 it's framed as a brown person committing violence 00:03:24.659 --> 00:03:27.240 against a young white woman, it's just massive. 00:03:27.419 --> 00:03:29.680 And that's the core question, isn't it? The math 00:03:29.680 --> 00:03:31.560 doesn't seem to matter because the political 00:03:31.560 --> 00:03:34.159 utility of the distraction is just too high. 00:03:34.419 --> 00:03:37.599 It's a pivot to scapegoating. A very swift pivot 00:03:37.599 --> 00:03:40.979 to open xenophobia. We saw the USCIS director, 00:03:41.639 --> 00:03:45.139 Ed Lowe, list 19 countries of concern. And the 00:03:45.139 --> 00:03:47.479 observation from the sources is that these countries 00:03:47.479 --> 00:03:49.960 are basically defined by having the wrong religion 00:03:49.960 --> 00:03:53.379 or ethnicity. Or both. And the rhetoric escalated 00:03:53.379 --> 00:03:56.060 fast. The former president talking about banning 00:03:56.060 --> 00:03:58.620 immigration from third world countries. And Senator 00:03:58.620 --> 00:04:01.479 Tuberville calling for a ban and deportation 00:04:01.479 --> 00:04:04.139 of all Muslims. I mean, think about the implications 00:04:04.139 --> 00:04:06.360 of that for someone like Dr. Mehmet Oz, a U .S. 00:04:06.580 --> 00:04:08.360 official. It's incredibly aggressive theater. 00:04:08.490 --> 00:04:11.349 Even the DHS posted on social media around Thanksgiving 00:04:11.349 --> 00:04:13.710 that there's no room at the table for invaders. 00:04:13.930 --> 00:04:15.870 Especially when you put it up against the actual 00:04:15.870 --> 00:04:18.610 evidence. Which is, you know, consistent globally. 00:04:19.689 --> 00:04:22.370 Research shows immigrants, including undocumented 00:04:22.370 --> 00:04:25.129 immigrants, are statistically less likely to 00:04:25.129 --> 00:04:27.970 commit crimes than native -born citizens. And 00:04:27.970 --> 00:04:30.839 why is that difference so stark? It really boils 00:04:30.839 --> 00:04:33.660 down to deterrence and consequence. For someone 00:04:33.660 --> 00:04:36.500 who's undocumented, even a minor crime carries 00:04:36.500 --> 00:04:39.160 this nuclear consequence of deportation. You 00:04:39.160 --> 00:04:42.220 lose everything. Your job, your family. Everything. 00:04:43.160 --> 00:04:45.740 Native -born citizens just don't face that same 00:04:45.740 --> 00:04:49.019 level of systemic punishment for, say, a petty 00:04:49.019 --> 00:04:51.560 offense. The cost of failure is just exponentially 00:04:51.560 --> 00:04:54.199 higher. But politically, that fact is just ignored. 00:04:54.750 --> 00:04:56.769 Immediately. So if the data says the narrative 00:04:56.769 --> 00:04:59.389 is false, why the intense grandstanding right 00:04:59.389 --> 00:05:01.870 now? What's the why now? Well, the sources point 00:05:01.870 --> 00:05:04.750 to a few drivers and they aren't mutually exclusive. 00:05:04.829 --> 00:05:06.889 Could just be instinctive bigotry being leveraged. 00:05:06.910 --> 00:05:08.970 Or a distraction from other political problems. 00:05:09.009 --> 00:05:11.750 For sure. But the most important strategic reason 00:05:11.750 --> 00:05:14.129 flagged is probably the tactical shift in public 00:05:14.129 --> 00:05:16.389 narrative. If you think you're losing the argument 00:05:16.389 --> 00:05:19.870 on the economy, shifting the fight from the economy 00:05:19.870 --> 00:05:23.029 is bad to the emotional ground of those damn 00:05:23.029 --> 00:05:26.389 immigrants are the problem is, well, it's a proven 00:05:26.389 --> 00:05:29.149 political lifeline. And that leads us right into 00:05:29.149 --> 00:05:31.470 our second topic. The idea that these tactics 00:05:31.470 --> 00:05:34.470 have moved beyond just narratives and into the 00:05:34.470 --> 00:05:36.769 systemic weaponization of the federal government 00:05:36.769 --> 00:05:39.350 itself. The comparison to the past is really 00:05:39.350 --> 00:05:41.370 something. Yeah. You know, Nixon was criticized 00:05:41.370 --> 00:05:44.629 for using the IRS against his enemies. A single 00:05:44.629 --> 00:05:48.470 agency. Right. Today, the strategy seems to be 00:05:48.470 --> 00:05:51.189 using the entire executive branch as a tool chest. 00:05:52.129 --> 00:05:54.310 Law professors reviewing this say top aides are 00:05:54.310 --> 00:05:56.829 literally asking, okay, we have this agency, 00:05:57.269 --> 00:05:59.029 what's the most damaging thing we can do with 00:05:59.029 --> 00:06:01.550 it? And what's so interesting is the use of obscure 00:06:01.550 --> 00:06:03.910 agencies, not just the big ones like the Department 00:06:03.910 --> 00:06:06.550 of Justice. Because the goal isn't always a conviction. 00:06:07.410 --> 00:06:10.250 A lot of the time, the real goal is just reputational 00:06:10.250 --> 00:06:12.850 damage, financial exhaustion, and distraction. 00:06:13.029 --> 00:06:14.569 Give us an example. Take the Federal Housing 00:06:14.569 --> 00:06:17.000 Finance Agency, the FHFA. Most people have never 00:06:17.000 --> 00:06:19.860 even heard of it, but it controls a ton of U 00:06:19.860 --> 00:06:22.660 .S. mortgage data. So the administration puts 00:06:22.660 --> 00:06:26.040 a crony, Bill Pult, in charge to dig up dirt. 00:06:26.920 --> 00:06:29.720 He finds that Senator Adam Schiff had dual primary 00:06:29.720 --> 00:06:32.220 residences in two different states. Which is 00:06:32.220 --> 00:06:33.939 pretty common for members of Congress, isn't 00:06:33.939 --> 00:06:37.819 it? Very common. But the goal isn't a slam dunk 00:06:37.819 --> 00:06:41.759 criminal case. The order goes to the DOJ to indict 00:06:41.759 --> 00:06:44.379 Schiff. So even if the case falls apart later, 00:06:44.699 --> 00:06:47.480 the political win is already in the bag. Schiff 00:06:47.480 --> 00:06:50.579 has to spend millions on his defense. His name 00:06:50.579 --> 00:06:53.100 is dragged through the mud in attack ads and 00:06:53.100 --> 00:06:55.480 his time is spent in court, not campaigning. 00:06:55.560 --> 00:06:57.699 The punishment is the process. The punishment 00:06:57.699 --> 00:07:00.139 is the process. And we see that same approach 00:07:00.139 --> 00:07:02.319 used against institutions. Like with Harvard. 00:07:02.699 --> 00:07:04.459 Absolutely. The Department of Commerce is trying 00:07:04.459 --> 00:07:07.079 to strip them of patents worth millions, arguing 00:07:07.079 --> 00:07:09.120 some of the research was federally funded. Even 00:07:09.120 --> 00:07:10.819 though that's standard practice? It's not just 00:07:10.819 --> 00:07:13.079 standard, it's encouraged by the contracts. They 00:07:13.079 --> 00:07:15.120 want universities to patent these things so they 00:07:15.120 --> 00:07:17.500 get licensed and benefit the economy. And what 00:07:17.500 --> 00:07:19.639 about HHS? The Department of Health and Human 00:07:19.639 --> 00:07:22.579 Services is being used to block research grants 00:07:22.579 --> 00:07:25.730 for vital medical research. It's a clear political 00:07:25.730 --> 00:07:29.430 move to cater to the anti -science, anti -vaccine 00:07:29.430 --> 00:07:31.430 sentiments in the base. Then you've got the FCC 00:07:31.430 --> 00:07:33.649 for the media. The Federal Communications Commission, 00:07:33.889 --> 00:07:36.269 yeah. Threatening broadcast licenses, blocking 00:07:36.269 --> 00:07:39.430 mergers. The message is pretty clear. Pay tribute. 00:07:39.639 --> 00:07:42.740 or face the consequences, suppress unfavorable 00:07:42.740 --> 00:07:45.220 coverage. Which brings us to the explicit use 00:07:45.220 --> 00:07:49.100 of the DOD and DOJ as basically personal weapons 00:07:49.100 --> 00:07:51.319 against political rivals who are also veterans. 00:07:51.660 --> 00:07:53.519 Yeah, that drama with Senator Mark Kelly was 00:07:53.519 --> 00:07:56.000 a prime example. The DOD threatened to revoke 00:07:56.000 --> 00:07:58.399 his security clearances. And he's a decorated 00:07:58.399 --> 00:08:01.339 veteran, a Democrat from Arizona. and his supposed 00:08:01.339 --> 00:08:03.980 crime. He simply reminded service members of 00:08:03.980 --> 00:08:06.920 their legal right, which is embedded in the Uniform 00:08:06.920 --> 00:08:09.579 Code of Military Justice, to disobey illegal 00:08:09.579 --> 00:08:11.660 orders. This was all centered around that video 00:08:11.660 --> 00:08:13.699 from the Seditious Six, as they were called. 00:08:13.839 --> 00:08:16.240 Right, six Democratic veterans. The SEC DEF, 00:08:16.480 --> 00:08:19.220 Pete Hegseth, and FBI Director Cash Patel threatened 00:08:19.220 --> 00:08:21.199 them with investigation and even court martial. 00:08:21.399 --> 00:08:23.579 But was there any real legal jeopardy there? 00:08:23.819 --> 00:08:26.360 The sources say the odds of a conviction were 00:08:26.360 --> 00:08:30.810 miniscule. Kelly is a civilian. Recalling a former 00:08:30.810 --> 00:08:33.769 service member for speech is legally unprecedented. 00:08:33.870 --> 00:08:35.950 It's protected by the First Amendment. And the 00:08:35.950 --> 00:08:37.950 speech and debate clause for a sitting member 00:08:37.950 --> 00:08:41.309 of Congress. The truth is in absolute defense. 00:08:42.250 --> 00:08:45.070 So legally, it was mostly just theater. So what 00:08:45.070 --> 00:08:47.629 was the political trap here? It seems it was 00:08:47.629 --> 00:08:50.389 strategically laid by the Democrats. They chose 00:08:50.389 --> 00:08:53.210 the participants perfectly. How so? Three men. 00:08:53.399 --> 00:08:56.139 three women, representing the three biggest branches 00:08:56.139 --> 00:08:58.740 of the armed services, all from critical swing 00:08:58.740 --> 00:09:01.620 states. They baited the administration into threatening 00:09:01.620 --> 00:09:03.820 them. And the administration walked right into 00:09:03.820 --> 00:09:06.759 it. Hook, line and sinker. They elevated these 00:09:06.759 --> 00:09:09.379 six people into high profile leaders of the resistance. 00:09:09.860 --> 00:09:12.960 It was a massive media and fundraising win for 00:09:12.960 --> 00:09:15.059 their opponents. So we've established this pattern, 00:09:15.779 --> 00:09:18.960 intense political chaos, distraction, weaponization 00:09:18.960 --> 00:09:20.960 of government. Now, let's pivot and ask that 00:09:20.960 --> 00:09:22.980 question we started with. Is this all designed 00:09:22.980 --> 00:09:25.700 to distract from a struggling economy? Exactly. 00:09:25.799 --> 00:09:29.379 So we have to shift from that chaos to the cold, 00:09:29.700 --> 00:09:33.620 structured world of macro data guided by a quantitative 00:09:33.620 --> 00:09:35.919 framework. Right. And this is where we move from 00:09:35.919 --> 00:09:38.480 the subjective to the systematic. The framework 00:09:38.480 --> 00:09:42.320 here is the hedge -eye growth inflation policy 00:09:42.320 --> 00:09:45.559 model. the GIP model. And it just strips out 00:09:45.559 --> 00:09:48.179 the noise? It does. It uses real -time economic 00:09:48.179 --> 00:09:51.360 data, GDP, CPI, all that, to map the economy 00:09:51.360 --> 00:09:54.639 into one of four regimes, or quads. Okay, so 00:09:54.639 --> 00:09:57.080 what does that cold hard data tell us is coming 00:09:57.080 --> 00:09:59.600 next? The critical finding in our sources is 00:09:59.600 --> 00:10:02.279 that the GIP model is now casting a quad four 00:10:02.279 --> 00:10:04.340 for December. Let's make sure we define Quad 00:10:04.340 --> 00:10:06.559 Four very clearly for everyone. Quad Four is 00:10:06.559 --> 00:10:08.620 the most bearish environment for stocks and other 00:10:08.620 --> 00:10:11.200 risk assets. It's when both economic growth is 00:10:11.200 --> 00:10:13.600 decelerating, so trending down, and inflation 00:10:13.600 --> 00:10:15.879 is also decelerating. Disinflation and slowing 00:10:15.879 --> 00:10:18.139 growth. Exactly. It's an environment with structural 00:10:18.139 --> 00:10:20.100 recessionary pressures. And the financial markets 00:10:20.100 --> 00:10:22.419 are already confirming this call way ahead of 00:10:22.419 --> 00:10:24.320 the headlines. Absolutely. If you look at the 00:10:24.320 --> 00:10:27.580 core Quad Four hedges, the U .S. dollar is still 00:10:27.580 --> 00:10:30.100 bullish on both its short -term and intermediate 00:10:30.100 --> 00:10:32.870 -term signals. It's the classic flight to safety 00:10:32.870 --> 00:10:36.250 asset. It does well when global growth and inflation 00:10:36.250 --> 00:10:38.389 are weakening. And the bond market is screaming 00:10:38.389 --> 00:10:41.350 it. It really is. U .S. Treasury yields are doing, 00:10:41.409 --> 00:10:44.029 and this is a quote, classic Quad Four things. 00:10:44.549 --> 00:10:47.730 The two -year yield is grinding lower. The 10 00:10:47.730 --> 00:10:50.750 -year put in a big lower high. Which means investors 00:10:50.750 --> 00:10:53.629 are certain that falling rates are coming. They're 00:10:53.629 --> 00:10:56.409 expecting the Fed to have to cut rates to respond 00:10:56.409 --> 00:10:58.830 to that slowing growth. And that certainty has 00:10:58.830 --> 00:11:01.629 just crushed bond market volatility. Completely. 00:11:01.970 --> 00:11:04.509 The move of index? which measures bond volatile, 00:11:04.809 --> 00:11:07.190 has collapsed by over a thousand basis points. 00:11:07.470 --> 00:11:10.250 That is a massive drop. It suggests the market 00:11:10.250 --> 00:11:13.230 is very certain about the path from here, lower 00:11:13.230 --> 00:11:15.389 rates ahead. And while stock market volatility, 00:11:15.690 --> 00:11:19.190 the VIX, is low, the setup is described as extremely 00:11:19.190 --> 00:11:22.190 fragile going into a monthly Quad 4. Very fragile. 00:11:22.309 --> 00:11:24.330 So is this just a U .S. thing or is it global? 00:11:24.730 --> 00:11:26.909 It is definitely global. Germany, the engine 00:11:26.909 --> 00:11:29.169 of Europe, is slowing rapidly, potentially into 00:11:29.169 --> 00:11:31.610 a recession. And critically, China has slipped 00:11:31.610 --> 00:11:34.419 back into Quad 4. So the Shanghai Stock Index 00:11:34.419 --> 00:11:36.620 is flashing a sell signal. It's flipped to a 00:11:36.620 --> 00:11:39.299 bearish trend signal. Yes. When the world's two 00:11:39.299 --> 00:11:41.820 largest economies are in a structural deceleration, 00:11:42.460 --> 00:11:45.080 the global outlook is pretty clear. OK, so let's 00:11:45.080 --> 00:11:47.519 talk actionable insights. What works in Quad 00:11:47.519 --> 00:11:50.879 4 and what gets hurt? Quad 4 systematically favors 00:11:50.879 --> 00:11:54.100 long duration assets, things where the cash flows 00:11:54.100 --> 00:11:56.539 are far in the future, so they become more valuable 00:11:56.539 --> 00:11:58.519 when interest rates fall. So that's why precious 00:11:58.519 --> 00:12:01.039 metals are doing well. Exactly. Gold and silver 00:12:01.039 --> 00:12:03.769 remain bullish trend. They're supported by falling 00:12:03.769 --> 00:12:06.549 yields and that low bond volatility. And what 00:12:06.549 --> 00:12:08.509 about the commodities that are tied directly 00:12:08.509 --> 00:12:11.629 to economic activity? They're really struggling. 00:12:11.809 --> 00:12:14.649 The cyclicals, things that depend on strong immediate 00:12:14.649 --> 00:12:18.250 growth like lumber, orange juice, cocoa, they've 00:12:18.250 --> 00:12:21.169 all had steep painful drawdowns. The market is 00:12:21.169 --> 00:12:23.769 signaling that future demand is cooling off fast. 00:12:24.070 --> 00:12:26.309 That's the signal, yeah. And finally, on the 00:12:26.309 --> 00:12:28.509 equity side, where should the focus be? The stand 00:12:28.509 --> 00:12:30.490 -at -long sector continues to be health care. 00:12:30.970 --> 00:12:34.450 The ticker is XLV. It performs well in Quad 4 00:12:34.450 --> 00:12:37.070 because it's stable, it's non -cyclical. It acts 00:12:37.070 --> 00:12:39.450 kind of like a bond. It's seen as a long duration 00:12:39.450 --> 00:12:43.230 bond proxy sector, yes. And conversely, the sources 00:12:43.230 --> 00:12:46.049 are strongly advising caution against chasing 00:12:46.049 --> 00:12:48.409 those late cycle cyclicals. Like industrials, 00:12:48.549 --> 00:12:51.450 XLI. Exactly. Industrials thrive when growth 00:12:51.450 --> 00:12:53.590 is peaking, not when it's structurally declining. 00:12:54.169 --> 00:12:56.190 In this environment, you want to be positioned 00:12:56.190 --> 00:12:58.750 for stability and safety, not for aggressive 00:12:58.750 --> 00:13:01.299 growth. So this deep dive has really given us 00:13:01.299 --> 00:13:04.240 a view into two wildly different worlds. One 00:13:04.240 --> 00:13:07.840 is just defined by this intense targeted political 00:13:07.840 --> 00:13:11.820 reaction fueled by instinct and distraction. 00:13:12.039 --> 00:13:14.980 And the other is defined by cold hard data pointing 00:13:14.980 --> 00:13:17.720 towards systemic economic deceleration and rising 00:13:17.720 --> 00:13:20.179 recessionary pressures. The central finding here 00:13:20.179 --> 00:13:23.200 seems to be this clear structural breakdown in 00:13:23.200 --> 00:13:25.019 growth that's happening at the same time as all 00:13:25.019 --> 00:13:27.899 this political volatility and institutional weaponization. 00:13:27.940 --> 00:13:30.440 Right. One side of the coin is screaming instability, 00:13:30.860 --> 00:13:32.879 while the other is quietly whispering about a 00:13:32.879 --> 00:13:35.000 structural retreat in the global economy. Which 00:13:35.000 --> 00:13:36.779 leaves us with a final thought for you, connecting 00:13:36.779 --> 00:13:40.019 these two worlds. If the political theater and 00:13:40.019 --> 00:13:42.460 scapegoating we've analyzed are meant, at least 00:13:42.460 --> 00:13:44.960 in part, to shift the narrative away from a bad 00:13:44.960 --> 00:13:47.379 economy. And if the economic prediction of a 00:13:47.379 --> 00:13:50.120 Quad Four for December proves correct, signaling 00:13:50.120 --> 00:13:52.919 even more deceleration and economic pain ahead. 00:13:53.179 --> 00:13:55.179 Then how much more extreme and targeted should 00:13:55.179 --> 00:13:58.159 we expect the political scapegoating and institutional 00:13:58.159 --> 00:14:01.360 weaponization to become in response to that underlying 00:14:01.360 --> 00:14:03.500 and intensifying economic weakness?