WEBVTT 00:00:00.000 --> 00:00:03.660 Welcome to the deep dive. Our mission today is 00:00:03.660 --> 00:00:08.080 to give you that shortcut to being truly well 00:00:08.080 --> 00:00:11.619 -informed. We're synthesizing three massive and 00:00:11.619 --> 00:00:14.740 honestly highly volatile source areas. We've 00:00:14.740 --> 00:00:17.160 got the financial anxieties gripping portfolio 00:00:17.160 --> 00:00:20.600 managers, the policy fallout in Washington after 00:00:20.600 --> 00:00:22.960 that dramatic government reopening, and then 00:00:22.960 --> 00:00:26.000 a fascinating look at these deep cultural fault 00:00:26.000 --> 00:00:29.059 lines splitting conservative women. And it's 00:00:29.059 --> 00:00:31.039 an absolutely necessary synthesis because all 00:00:31.039 --> 00:00:32.689 these sources they're pointing toward a singular 00:00:32.689 --> 00:00:35.490 observation. We are living in a moment that is 00:00:35.490 --> 00:00:38.590 just defined by profound systemic uncertainty. 00:00:39.279 --> 00:00:41.500 Investors are worried, policymakers are showing 00:00:41.500 --> 00:00:43.780 record levels of dysfunction. And the rhetoric 00:00:43.780 --> 00:00:45.600 is better. It's approaching historical extremes. 00:00:45.840 --> 00:00:47.420 We're dealing with what one of our sources called 00:00:47.420 --> 00:00:49.820 a persistent wall of worry. The wall of worry. 00:00:50.039 --> 00:00:51.899 I like that. So, okay, we're going to start by 00:00:51.899 --> 00:00:54.100 looking for those financial cockroaches, you 00:00:54.100 --> 00:00:55.880 know, the hidden weaknesses in the market. Yes. 00:00:56.000 --> 00:00:59.000 Then we'll navigate the chaos following the government's 00:00:59.000 --> 00:01:01.780 reopening. And that includes a serious look at 00:01:01.780 --> 00:01:03.619 why the economic data we're getting right now 00:01:03.619 --> 00:01:06.930 is... Well, suspect. To say the least. And finally, 00:01:07.069 --> 00:01:09.469 we'll explore that really surprising ideological 00:01:09.469 --> 00:01:11.870 split among influential conservative women who 00:01:11.870 --> 00:01:14.129 are publicly debating what it even means to be 00:01:14.129 --> 00:01:17.969 a Republican in 2025. OK, let's unpack this. 00:01:18.989 --> 00:01:22.250 So when you talk to advisors, to portfolio managers 00:01:22.250 --> 00:01:25.290 right now, particularly in fixed income, the 00:01:25.290 --> 00:01:28.590 number one anxiety seems to be credit quality. 00:01:28.829 --> 00:01:31.930 It is. We just saw this notable shakeout, these 00:01:31.930 --> 00:01:34.890 surprise bankruptcies in the auto sector. For 00:01:34.890 --> 00:01:37.609 someone who's not in finance day -to -day, what 00:01:37.609 --> 00:01:40.450 exactly led to that sudden weakness being exposed? 00:01:41.329 --> 00:01:43.730 Well, what happened was really a classic example 00:01:43.730 --> 00:01:46.349 of market demand overriding diligence. I mean, 00:01:46.409 --> 00:01:48.349 the demand for yield has been so strong that 00:01:48.349 --> 00:01:51.549 risks were frankly just overlooked. OK. But when 00:01:51.549 --> 00:01:53.170 these auto companies had to go back to the market 00:01:53.170 --> 00:01:55.609 to refinance their debt, analysts finally had 00:01:55.609 --> 00:01:57.599 to, you know, Look at the paperwork. They had 00:01:57.599 --> 00:01:59.079 to do the homework. They had to do the homework. 00:01:59.299 --> 00:02:01.060 And they realized the underlying credit quality 00:02:01.060 --> 00:02:03.340 was just terrible. So the surprise wasn't that 00:02:03.340 --> 00:02:05.439 they were bad credits. The surprise was that 00:02:05.439 --> 00:02:07.859 the market had tolerated them for so long. And 00:02:07.859 --> 00:02:10.599 that brings us to that infamous cockroach theory 00:02:10.599 --> 00:02:13.360 comment from Jamie Dimon. What does that theory 00:02:13.360 --> 00:02:16.879 imply for the market right now? The theory is 00:02:16.879 --> 00:02:20.479 it's simple, but it's terrifying if you're a 00:02:20.479 --> 00:02:23.280 risk manager. Right. If you find one cockroach, 00:02:23.439 --> 00:02:26.659 one surprise bankruptcy, It suggests that there 00:02:26.659 --> 00:02:29.099 are probably more bad credits hiding in the woodwork, 00:02:30.139 --> 00:02:31.620 ones that haven't been uncovered yet because 00:02:31.620 --> 00:02:34.319 liquidity has been so high. So this intensive 00:02:34.319 --> 00:02:36.719 search for where the next unexpected default 00:02:36.719 --> 00:02:39.360 is lurking, that's dominating credit right now. 00:02:39.560 --> 00:02:41.780 So that's the micro -anxiety. But if we pull 00:02:41.780 --> 00:02:44.139 back, the macro concern that seems to have everyone 00:02:44.139 --> 00:02:47.000 talking is debt deficits and, of course, the 00:02:47.000 --> 00:02:51.699 risk of an AI bubble. Is this just cyclical nervousness 00:02:51.699 --> 00:02:53.879 or is there something different about AI financing? 00:02:54.000 --> 00:02:57.000 It's both. The AI concern isn't just about valuation, 00:02:57.219 --> 00:02:59.840 which is, you know, very high. It's specifically 00:02:59.840 --> 00:03:02.360 about whether there is circular financing fueling 00:03:02.360 --> 00:03:04.560 it. Circular financing. So a self -feeding loop 00:03:04.560 --> 00:03:06.680 where the paper value just reinforces more paper 00:03:06.680 --> 00:03:10.840 value? Exactly. The company is, in essence, generating 00:03:10.840 --> 00:03:13.319 the appearance of growth by borrowing money, 00:03:13.659 --> 00:03:15.900 often against their inflated stock, and then 00:03:15.900 --> 00:03:18.300 using that money to buy other companies in the 00:03:18.300 --> 00:03:22.620 same ecosystem. And if one major player disappoints, 00:03:22.800 --> 00:03:25.780 that shock could ripple through the entire interconnected 00:03:25.780 --> 00:03:28.599 sector very, very quickly. That's the landmine 00:03:28.599 --> 00:03:30.139 investors are worried about. And what about the 00:03:30.139 --> 00:03:32.039 debt problem? Well, separately, you have to mention 00:03:32.039 --> 00:03:34.479 it. The U .S. deficit to GDP is running close 00:03:34.479 --> 00:03:37.520 to 7 % this year. And the market is concerned 00:03:37.520 --> 00:03:40.120 because there is zero political discipline in 00:03:40.120 --> 00:03:42.520 Washington to curb it. Which complicates the 00:03:42.520 --> 00:03:45.240 Fed's job. Fundamentally, it complicates managing 00:03:45.240 --> 00:03:47.719 inflation and maintaining confidence in longer 00:03:47.719 --> 00:03:50.270 -term bonds. It's interesting. The sources noted 00:03:50.270 --> 00:03:53.650 this overall investor sentiment is just so pessimistic. 00:03:53.990 --> 00:03:55.610 But, you know, the old adage says that might 00:03:55.610 --> 00:03:58.110 actually be a good sign. The market likes to 00:03:58.110 --> 00:04:01.110 climb a wall of worry. Maybe that worry is the 00:04:01.110 --> 00:04:04.770 fuel. OK, moving to policy, let's tackle the 00:04:04.770 --> 00:04:07.650 government reopening. After more than 40 days, 00:04:07.710 --> 00:04:10.590 it's resolved with a temporary continuing resolution, 00:04:10.830 --> 00:04:14.469 a CR. Funding is extended through January 30th, 00:04:14.530 --> 00:04:17.620 2026. What was actually accomplished here? Well, 00:04:17.720 --> 00:04:20.319 the CR mostly just bought time. But crucially, 00:04:20.459 --> 00:04:23.240 they did manage to pass three of the 12 underlying 00:04:23.240 --> 00:04:26.079 appropriations bills. OK, which ones? Agriculture, 00:04:26.319 --> 00:04:28.540 which is vital because it fully funds SNAP food 00:04:28.540 --> 00:04:31.300 stamps for about 42 million low income Americans. 00:04:31.740 --> 00:04:33.899 They also passed military construction veterans 00:04:33.899 --> 00:04:36.160 and the legislative branch bill. And what about 00:04:36.160 --> 00:04:38.379 for the federal workers? That was essential. 00:04:38.699 --> 00:04:41.639 Back pay was insured and the roughly 4 ,100 workers 00:04:41.639 --> 00:04:44.120 who'd been fired during the shutdown were reinstated. 00:04:44.439 --> 00:04:46.519 But. In a bill that's supposed to be just about 00:04:46.519 --> 00:04:48.540 keeping the lights on and funding food stamps, 00:04:48.800 --> 00:04:52.079 they slipped in this highly specific, very targeted 00:04:52.079 --> 00:04:55.019 legal provision about the January 6 investigation. 00:04:55.480 --> 00:04:58.519 They did. It really puts a fine point on Congress's 00:04:58.519 --> 00:05:02.000 priorities right now. I'll say. There is a provision 00:05:02.000 --> 00:05:05.040 allowing members of Congress to retroactively 00:05:05.040 --> 00:05:07.699 sue the government for up to five hundred thousand 00:05:07.699 --> 00:05:10.680 dollars if their personal phone data was accessed 00:05:10.680 --> 00:05:13.360 without consent during that investigation. Wow. 00:05:13.680 --> 00:05:16.949 Just. Wow, okay, but the most critical failure 00:05:16.949 --> 00:05:20.149 in this process had to be not extending the Affordable 00:05:20.149 --> 00:05:23.149 Care Act subsidies. What are the concrete implications 00:05:23.149 --> 00:05:27.089 of that? The consequences are immediate and quite 00:05:27.089 --> 00:05:29.490 severe for millions. These subsidies, they were 00:05:29.490 --> 00:05:31.649 put in place during COVID and they were set to 00:05:31.649 --> 00:05:34.230 expire at the end of 2025. Right. Because the 00:05:34.230 --> 00:05:36.970 funding wasn't extended and estimated 22 million 00:05:36.970 --> 00:05:39.050 Americans who bought insurance through the ACA 00:05:39.120 --> 00:05:42.220 are now facing premium hikes for 2026. And this 00:05:42.220 --> 00:05:44.620 caused a huge rift in the Democratic Party. A 00:05:44.620 --> 00:05:47.160 huge rift. Republicans successfully insisted 00:05:47.160 --> 00:05:49.439 to be a separate discussion. Now, Democrats got 00:05:49.439 --> 00:05:51.399 an agreement for a Senate vote before mid -December, 00:05:51.639 --> 00:05:53.839 but there's no guarantee it passes or that the 00:05:53.839 --> 00:05:56.680 House even takes it up. And beyond all the political 00:05:56.680 --> 00:05:58.939 wrangling, there's a serious technical problem 00:05:58.939 --> 00:06:01.699 now, isn't there? The shutdown affected the release 00:06:01.699 --> 00:06:04.879 of key federal data, jobs reports, inflation. 00:06:05.379 --> 00:06:08.079 How confident can the Fed be in this data? That 00:06:08.079 --> 00:06:10.339 is the critical issue for their December meeting. 00:06:11.000 --> 00:06:13.819 When the government shut down, federal agencies 00:06:13.819 --> 00:06:16.560 simply stopped collecting the primary data. They 00:06:16.560 --> 00:06:19.019 just stopped. They just stopped. So for example, 00:06:19.180 --> 00:06:21.600 the jobs report surveys for October weren't fully 00:06:21.600 --> 00:06:24.060 conducted. This means a lot of the initial reports 00:06:24.060 --> 00:06:28.060 we're seeing now rely on patchwork data estimates, 00:06:28.819 --> 00:06:30.420 partial information. So we're dealing with a 00:06:30.420 --> 00:06:33.660 distorted view of the economy. Exactly. The general 00:06:33.660 --> 00:06:36.600 expectation among analysts is that confidence 00:06:36.600 --> 00:06:40.230 in truly accurate clean data won't return until 00:06:40.230 --> 00:06:42.209 the end of the year, maybe even early January 00:06:42.209 --> 00:06:46.149 2026. Which puts the Fed in a very odd position, 00:06:46.290 --> 00:06:48.829 as one source put it. A very odd position for 00:06:48.829 --> 00:06:50.810 making REIT decisions next month. And that lack 00:06:50.810 --> 00:06:53.129 of stability isn't limited to economic data. 00:06:53.750 --> 00:06:55.850 Let's pivot to the political chaos on Capitol 00:06:55.850 --> 00:06:58.329 Hill. We've reached a point where censure wars 00:06:58.329 --> 00:07:01.329 are eating up hours of floor time. One representative 00:07:01.329 --> 00:07:04.209 said, the only thing we can apparently do is 00:07:04.209 --> 00:07:07.250 condemn each other. It's truly remarkable. Centure, 00:07:07.430 --> 00:07:09.970 which is just a formal public rebuke, has become 00:07:09.970 --> 00:07:12.990 common currency. It's used less as a moral tool 00:07:12.990 --> 00:07:16.529 and more as a, you know, political rallying cry 00:07:16.529 --> 00:07:19.269 and a fundraising boon. But there's a potential 00:07:19.269 --> 00:07:21.589 legislative response to this, right? The Bacon 00:07:21.589 --> 00:07:24.410 and Beyer proposal. Yes, there is a bipartisan 00:07:24.410 --> 00:07:27.069 acknowledgement that this is corrosive. Their 00:07:27.069 --> 00:07:30.100 bill would require a 60 % supermajority. not 00:07:30.100 --> 00:07:32.819 a simple majority, to approve a censure. The 00:07:32.819 --> 00:07:35.579 idea being to raise the political cost. Exactly. 00:07:35.939 --> 00:07:38.519 Force broad consensus before leadership can just 00:07:38.519 --> 00:07:40.860 weaponize these votes. And House leaders have 00:07:40.860 --> 00:07:42.600 said they're open to discussing it, which shows 00:07:42.600 --> 00:07:44.699 you how out of hand things have gotten. And if 00:07:44.699 --> 00:07:46.500 that wasn't extreme enough, we have to talk about 00:07:46.500 --> 00:07:48.500 the rhetoric coming from the executive branch. 00:07:48.680 --> 00:07:52.500 The language is approaching unprecedented highs. 00:07:54.079 --> 00:07:56.379 The sources report the president suggested that 00:07:56.379 --> 00:07:58.699 six Democratic lawmakers should be subject to 00:07:58.699 --> 00:08:02.360 death. for seditious behavior. For what? After 00:08:02.360 --> 00:08:04.500 they shared a video encouraging military members 00:08:04.500 --> 00:08:07.420 to disobey what they deemed unlawful orders. 00:08:07.759 --> 00:08:10.019 And the response from House leadership was what, 00:08:10.240 --> 00:08:13.040 first defensiveness and then a quiet? A quiet 00:08:13.040 --> 00:08:14.860 concession that the words were inappropriate. 00:08:14.899 --> 00:08:17.079 That's right. The fact that such extreme language, 00:08:17.199 --> 00:08:19.040 I mean, a threat of execution against sitting 00:08:19.040 --> 00:08:22.860 members of Congress is being normalized. It speaks 00:08:22.860 --> 00:08:26.040 volumes. OK, let's shift to a longer term policy 00:08:26.040 --> 00:08:29.220 paradox. Investors care deeply about debt, but 00:08:29.220 --> 00:08:31.720 Congress isn't focused on it. Why? The disconnect. 00:08:32.240 --> 00:08:36.440 The debt is $38 trillion. The problem is that 00:08:36.440 --> 00:08:38.779 $38 trillion is, in the words of one source, 00:08:39.440 --> 00:08:41.700 a nonsense number to most people. It's too big 00:08:41.700 --> 00:08:44.940 to comprehend. Exactly. The average constituent... 00:08:44.940 --> 00:08:46.960 doesn't understand how it affects their daily 00:08:46.960 --> 00:08:49.759 life. They don't grasp how rapidly growing interest 00:08:49.759 --> 00:08:52.919 payments are, diverting funds from, say, infrastructure 00:08:52.919 --> 00:08:55.200 or social programs. So if the voters don't apply 00:08:55.200 --> 00:08:57.480 the pressure, what is the only thing that works? 00:08:57.639 --> 00:09:01.120 The bond market. Period. Analysts point to past 00:09:01.120 --> 00:09:03.379 volatility, like the quick turnaround on tariffs 00:09:03.379 --> 00:09:05.840 last April, as evidence that when the bond market 00:09:05.840 --> 00:09:08.460 signals distress, Congress has to pay attention. 00:09:08.679 --> 00:09:11.259 And yet, earlier this year, they passed the One 00:09:11.259 --> 00:09:14.639 Big Beautiful Bill Act. which included a staggering 00:09:14.639 --> 00:09:17.399 $5 trillion increase to the get ceiling. They 00:09:17.399 --> 00:09:19.960 did. And that bill was notable because it included 00:09:19.960 --> 00:09:22.659 specific sweeteners to make it politically palatable. 00:09:22.840 --> 00:09:25.220 Right. Even for Republicans who'd sworn off increases. 00:09:25.460 --> 00:09:29.500 Yes. Four popular tax proposals retroactive to 00:09:29.500 --> 00:09:34.059 2025. No tax on TIP income. no tax on overtime, 00:09:34.759 --> 00:09:37.700 an auto loan interest deduction, and a $6 ,000 00:09:37.700 --> 00:09:40.220 deduction for seniors. And the political genius, 00:09:40.419 --> 00:09:43.279 or maybe cynicism, is that they all sunset in 00:09:43.279 --> 00:09:45.559 2028. A presidential election year. Of course. 00:09:45.679 --> 00:09:48.259 Which means their extension is highly probable, 00:09:48.659 --> 00:09:51.299 regardless of who's in power. It basically guarantees 00:09:51.299 --> 00:09:53.360 the debt gets kicked down the road. Briefly, 00:09:53.399 --> 00:09:55.100 before we move on, what about the Supreme Court 00:09:55.100 --> 00:09:57.580 case on tariffs? It focuses on the mechanism, 00:09:58.000 --> 00:10:00.399 the International Emergency Economic Powers Act, 00:10:00.639 --> 00:10:04.629 or IEPA. The case questions whether the administration 00:10:04.629 --> 00:10:06.970 abused that power. And what's the risk? A loss 00:10:06.970 --> 00:10:10.529 is possible. Observers noted a lot of skepticism 00:10:10.529 --> 00:10:13.350 from the justices during oral arguments. If they 00:10:13.350 --> 00:10:15.769 lose, it could trigger over a hundred billion 00:10:15.769 --> 00:10:18.809 dollars in refunds to businesses. A hundred billion. 00:10:19.129 --> 00:10:21.149 Though the court could sidestep that by making 00:10:21.149 --> 00:10:23.710 the ruling perspective only, we probably won't 00:10:23.710 --> 00:10:26.789 see a decision until late 2025 or early 2026. 00:10:27.110 --> 00:10:29.149 And let's just finish policy with a quick flame 00:10:29.149 --> 00:10:32.250 out. The 50 -year mortgage idea? Right. The head 00:10:32.250 --> 00:10:35.730 of the FHFA floated this, the president publicized 00:10:35.730 --> 00:10:37.870 it, and it was immediately panned just across 00:10:37.870 --> 00:10:39.750 the political spectrum. Because the economics 00:10:39.750 --> 00:10:42.549 just don't work. They don't. slower equity, way 00:10:42.549 --> 00:10:44.929 more interest paid over a lifetime. The president 00:10:44.929 --> 00:10:47.149 quickly distanced himself from it, which just 00:10:47.149 --> 00:10:49.850 reflects the, you know, freewheeling nature of 00:10:49.850 --> 00:10:53.029 this administration. OK, now we pivot to a really 00:10:53.029 --> 00:10:55.570 deep and I think unexpected cultural fault line 00:10:55.570 --> 00:10:58.210 playing out on social media. It's this ideological 00:10:58.210 --> 00:11:00.990 clash among conservative women basically dividing 00:11:00.990 --> 00:11:04.149 the Magier movement. It is the city Republicans 00:11:04.149 --> 00:11:07.139 versus the tradwives. This is a fundamental battle 00:11:07.139 --> 00:11:10.440 over identity and gender roles within conservatism. 00:11:10.720 --> 00:11:13.360 Yeah. On one side, you have the city Republican 00:11:13.360 --> 00:11:17.059 types like Raquel de Bono. Yeah. She's irreverent, 00:11:17.279 --> 00:11:19.940 socially libertarian, focused on economic freedom. 00:11:20.460 --> 00:11:23.299 She calls herself a sex and the city conservative. 00:11:23.440 --> 00:11:26.179 Her whole goal is to prove you can be a conservative 00:11:26.179 --> 00:11:29.879 woman and still, as she says, have a job and 00:11:29.879 --> 00:11:33.110 a martini. Yes, and she's very critical of established 00:11:33.110 --> 00:11:35.769 groups like Turning Point USA, calling them creepy 00:11:35.769 --> 00:11:37.590 and culty. And on the other side. You know, the 00:11:37.590 --> 00:11:39.769 tradwife movement with people like Alex Clark, 00:11:39.789 --> 00:11:41.950 they advocate for biblical womanhood. So that's 00:11:41.950 --> 00:11:44.110 much more restrictive. Traditional marriage, 00:11:44.129 --> 00:11:46.990 submission, pro -Christianity, pro -life. Absolutely. 00:11:47.070 --> 00:11:49.710 They oppose things like IVF because of the disposal 00:11:49.710 --> 00:11:51.990 of embryos. And then you have the ultra -trads 00:11:51.990 --> 00:11:54.769 like Savannah Stone, who suggested the 19th Amendment 00:11:54.769 --> 00:11:57.049 women's suffrage should be revoked. Revoked. 00:11:57.230 --> 00:11:59.850 Wow. So what's the political liability here? 00:12:00.039 --> 00:12:01.960 should Republican strategists be worried about 00:12:01.960 --> 00:12:05.000 this infighting? Well, influencers like Emily 00:12:05.000 --> 00:12:07.860 Wilson argue this focus on restrictive gender 00:12:07.860 --> 00:12:11.179 roles is a massive political liability. She says, 00:12:11.259 --> 00:12:13.259 and I'm quoting, we're going to lose elections 00:12:13.259 --> 00:12:15.179 if we don't agree to go to the middle ground. 00:12:15.340 --> 00:12:17.620 And the infighting gets so petty, right? Like 00:12:17.620 --> 00:12:19.799 the feud over the engagement rings. Exactly. 00:12:20.259 --> 00:12:23.159 A Catholic commentator, Sarah Stock, posted her 00:12:23.159 --> 00:12:25.639 engagement ring, and Emily Wilson mocked the 00:12:25.639 --> 00:12:29.059 size. The response from Stock's allies was just 00:12:29.059 --> 00:12:31.360 vicious calling Wilson a disgusting feminist 00:12:31.360 --> 00:12:34.340 whore. Which just confirms the worst biases of 00:12:34.340 --> 00:12:37.100 the opposition. It totally undermines any coherent 00:12:37.100 --> 00:12:39.720 message to persuadable women voters. And that 00:12:39.720 --> 00:12:42.279 raises a critical question about the fragility 00:12:42.279 --> 00:12:45.179 of this whole coalition. Will this uneasy mix 00:12:45.179 --> 00:12:48.460 of conservatism and coarseness just fall apart 00:12:48.460 --> 00:12:50.399 when the uniting figure is no longer central 00:12:50.399 --> 00:12:53.019 to the conversation? Let's shift completely to 00:12:53.019 --> 00:12:56.970 a forward -looking defensive asset, gold. James 00:12:56.970 --> 00:12:58.990 Rickards gives eight reasons why gold is the 00:12:58.990 --> 00:13:01.330 ultimate everything hedge. What are the strongest 00:13:01.330 --> 00:13:03.549 institutional arguments for its strength? What's 00:13:03.549 --> 00:13:05.889 fascinating is the institutional activity. Central 00:13:05.889 --> 00:13:08.129 banks flip from being net sellers to net buyers 00:13:08.129 --> 00:13:10.809 back in 2010. Right. And we're seeing the strongest 00:13:10.809 --> 00:13:14.549 accumulation trend since the late 1960s. That 00:13:14.549 --> 00:13:17.190 sustained buying, it creates a soft floor under 00:13:17.190 --> 00:13:19.970 the price. And supply is constrained. It's flatlined. 00:13:20.490 --> 00:13:23.190 Global mine supply has been near 3 ,500 tons 00:13:23.190 --> 00:13:26.860 for a decade. Extraction costs are up. or grades 00:13:26.860 --> 00:13:29.740 are down, so high demand, flat supply. That's 00:13:29.740 --> 00:13:32.980 a classic setup. And what's the best macro environment 00:13:32.980 --> 00:13:36.440 for gold to rip, as they say? That would be Quad 00:13:36.440 --> 00:13:39.320 Four. So that's slowing economic growth and falling 00:13:39.320 --> 00:13:42.940 inflation. In that specific setup, falling 10 00:13:42.940 --> 00:13:45.860 -year real yields are a very reliable catalyst 00:13:45.860 --> 00:13:48.539 for gold prices to rally. You also have the BRICS 00:13:48.539 --> 00:13:51.059 countries building their own gold -based system. 00:13:51.320 --> 00:13:53.960 Right. They're quietly building a parallel financial 00:13:53.960 --> 00:13:56.379 framework to the dollar to enhance their own 00:13:56.379 --> 00:13:58.019 financial independence and trade resilience. 00:13:58.539 --> 00:14:00.720 I think the systemic view is the most compelling. 00:14:01.100 --> 00:14:03.740 Rickards argues gold doesn't go up. Fiat currency 00:14:03.740 --> 00:14:06.120 goes down relative to gold. Absolutely. Just 00:14:06.120 --> 00:14:09.539 look at 1971 to 1980. Gold rose 2 ,300 percent. 00:14:10.019 --> 00:14:13.200 If you flip that, it's an implied 95 percent 00:14:13.200 --> 00:14:14.960 decline in the dollar's value measured in gold. 00:14:15.049 --> 00:14:17.990 And there's a psychological factor, this logarithmic 00:14:17.990 --> 00:14:20.789 acceleration. Yes, because people think in these 00:14:20.789 --> 00:14:24.129 round thousand dollar price chunks, the higher 00:14:24.129 --> 00:14:26.909 gold goes, the psychologically easier the next 00:14:26.909 --> 00:14:29.730 thousand dollar leg becomes. It just fuels accelerating 00:14:29.730 --> 00:14:33.590 demand. And finally, the ultimate argument, technological 00:14:33.590 --> 00:14:37.200 tail risk. Gold is a hedge against, well, digital 00:14:37.200 --> 00:14:39.299 collapse. Right. We saw the Cloudflare error 00:14:39.299 --> 00:14:43.019 take down sites like X and ChatGPT. But the CrowdStrike 00:14:43.019 --> 00:14:46.879 security update crash was arguably more terrifying. 00:14:46.970 --> 00:14:50.129 catastrophic. It was. It crashed 8 .5 million 00:14:50.129 --> 00:14:52.190 Windows devices. It locked millions of people 00:14:52.190 --> 00:14:54.070 out of their bank accounts and revealed this 00:14:54.070 --> 00:14:56.429 terrifying reality that the modern internet runs 00:14:56.429 --> 00:14:59.210 on an oligopoly. Just three cloud providers controlling 00:14:59.210 --> 00:15:02.389 everything. 63 % of the infrastructure. A single 00:15:02.389 --> 00:15:04.830 fault in a single provider can trigger a global 00:15:04.830 --> 00:15:07.669 cascade failure. Gold is the ultimate hedge against 00:15:07.669 --> 00:15:10.450 that specific kind of systemic technological 00:15:10.450 --> 00:15:13.259 collapse. We have covered a massive landscape 00:15:13.259 --> 00:15:15.740 today, from financial worries and the search 00:15:15.740 --> 00:15:19.299 for credit cockroaches to intense political volatility, 00:15:19.740 --> 00:15:21.840 the schisms in the conservative movement, and 00:15:21.840 --> 00:15:24.600 finally, the ultimate safety net of gold. It's 00:15:24.600 --> 00:15:26.799 a moment of just intense complexity. We're seeing 00:15:26.799 --> 00:15:31.059 record debt, $38 trillion, alongside record political 00:15:31.059 --> 00:15:34.080 dysfunction, censure wars, execution threats, 00:15:34.159 --> 00:15:37.299 all while a major cultural coalition faces a 00:15:37.299 --> 00:15:39.860 deep identity crisis. So here's a final provocative 00:15:39.860 --> 00:15:42.139 thought for you. all over. We know government 00:15:42.139 --> 00:15:44.600 shutdowns are predictable failures. The party 00:15:44.600 --> 00:15:47.179 that shuts it down is historically zero for eight. 00:15:47.500 --> 00:15:49.500 We also know there are basically no political 00:15:49.500 --> 00:15:51.899 consequences for congressional leadership. So 00:15:51.899 --> 00:15:54.259 what level of internal political breakdown would 00:15:54.259 --> 00:15:56.419 it actually take for the bond market, the only 00:15:56.419 --> 00:15:58.600 effective source of pressure we identified, to 00:15:58.600 --> 00:16:01.059 truly step in and force fiscal change? We'll 00:16:01.059 --> 00:16:01.700 leave that with you.