WEBVTT

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November 19th. It's for most people just another

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Tuesday, right? But if you go back a hundred

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and sixty some years November 19th 1863 that

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was the day of the Gettysburg Address a moment

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defined by this huge fundamental Conflict over

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what America even was and that's such a good

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frame for the sources You've sent over because

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you can see these echoes of that same structural

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battle today. It's just it's masked by all this

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high stakes political drama. So I think for this

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deep dive, our mission is to sort of untangle

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three big areas. We've got this political surrender

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on the Epstein files. Then there's this really

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transactional deal making with the US and Saudi

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Arabia. And the big one. And the big one, yeah.

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The foundational fight over gerrymandering, sort

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of an arms race. Okay, let's unpack this. Let's

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start with what was probably the biggest domestic

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headline. the House vote on the Epstein materials.

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The whole story just shifted so fast from if

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the administration would block it to why they

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suddenly just folded. The initial vote was, I

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mean, it was almost unprecedented. You had 534

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members of Congress, a near unanimous vote to

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demand the release of these files. That kind

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of unity, you know, against a sitting administration,

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it's a huge signal of institutional pressure.

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And yet there was one single No vote. Representative

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Clay Higgins from Louisiana. Why? Why him? Why

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stand -alone? Well Higgins gave a really detailed

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reason. He argued the bill, and this is a quote,

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abandons 250 years of criminal justice procedure

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in America. How so? His point was that you're

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forcing the release of files from an ongoing

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investigation. And he claimed that doing that

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risks injuring thousands of innocent people,

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witnesses, family members, people who just provided

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alibis by making all their confidential info

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public. So his argument is all about process,

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about protecting innocent bystanders. Exactly.

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But of course, A source has immediately jumped

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to the political angle. Sure. They're suggesting

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he's either, you know, positioning himself as

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a loyalist to the former president or he's basically

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laying the groundwork, the legal argument for

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them to hide the files later. And what's so fascinating

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is how the Senate handled it. It gets over there

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and the minority leader, Chuck Schumer, pushes

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it through with unanimous consent. Yeah. Can

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you just break that down for a second? Why is

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that move so important here? It's a procedural

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shortcut, really. It lets a bill pass without

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a formal roll call vote as long as no single

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senator objects. So it's fast. It's fast. And

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it lets every single senator avoid having to

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go on the record. Taking a politically risky

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vote on something this explosive, it's the clean

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way to apply maximum pressure with minimum personal

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risk. And the pressure clearly worked. Because

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then we see this complete reversal from the former

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president. One minute, he's fighting the release.

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The next, he's publicly supporting the bill.

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Right. And this pivot, this sudden surrender

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kicked off a bunch of theories and the source

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material trying to explain what happened. Yeah.

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And the theories are really telling. One is purely

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strategic. They call it the Ukraine playbook.

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OK. The idea is, if bad stuff is coming out anyway,

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you release it yourself. You control the narrative.

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And then you tell your base it was a perfect

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move all along. Exactly. You gaslight them. But

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does the administration really have the discipline

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for that? I mean, their crisis management hasn't

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always been sharp. It hasn't. Which is why the

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other theory, the one based on psychology, feels

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a little stronger. The idea that he just can't

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stand to look like a loser. Right. Psychologically,

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he's just incapable of admitting he lost a fight.

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So if he can't stop it, he has to pretend it

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was his idea the whole time. So those theories

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explain the public pivot, but the consensus and

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the sources seems to be that this is all just

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a setup for a concealment strategy. That's it.

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They're just buying time and changing the battlefield.

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And there are two main ways they could try to

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hide the information. OK, what's the first? The

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attorney general could just claim the files are

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part of an ongoing investigation that legally

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shields them. It's basically the new, my taxes

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are under audit excuse. And the second way involves

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Congress itself, using that same argument from

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the one dissenting vote. That's the more subtle

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play. Once Congress has the files, members aligned

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with the administration can just start quoting

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Clay Higgins. We have to protect the innocent

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witnesses, the families. So they can justify

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redacting huge chunks of it. Huge chunks. And

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the big win for transparency becomes... You know,

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an empty gesture. They give you a stack of blacked

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out pages. OK, so let's shift from domestic pressure

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to these high stakes foreign deals. The recent

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White House meeting with Prince Mohammed bin

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Salman. Yeah, MBS. They pulled out all the stops

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for him. I mean, Marine Corps band and F -35

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fly over the whole nine yards. The ceremony really

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matched the prize thereafter. The whole visit

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was about a massive transactional arms deal selling

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300 American tanks and crucially F -35s. to Saudi

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Arabia. And this is where the sources get really

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critical. The deal was made with, and I'm quoting

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here, no strings attached. Which is just malpractice.

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Diplomatically, you would think a skilled negotiator

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would use those F -35s as leverage. Right. To

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push Saudi Arabia to normalize relations with

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Israel, that's a huge U .S. priority in the region.

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But that condition was just gone. Not even on

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the table. And on top of that, the former president

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gave MBS these huge political gifts. You're talking

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about Jamal Khashoggi. He publicly defended MBS

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over the murder of Khashoggi, which remember

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the CIA says MBS ordered and he's out there saying

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MBS knew nothing about it. He even called Khashoggi

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extremely controversial. And he didn't stop there.

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He also suggested the Saudi government had nothing

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to do with 9 -11. A claim that just flies in

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the face of, you know. Two decades of evidence.

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So after giving away all that leverage, all that

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political cover, what did the US actually get

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in return? A massive, almost laughably huge,

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financial promise. Yeah. MBS said he would up

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his investment in the US from $600 billion to

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$1 trillion. A trillion. Just pause on that number.

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Saudi Arabia's entire annual GDP is only about

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$1 .2 trillion. The idea that they're investing

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nearly their entire country's output, it's a

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rhetorical tool, not a real. So even if we take

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a more realistic number, say 300 billion over

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a decade, the term investment itself can be tricky,

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right? It's not necessarily building factories

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here. Oh, it could be the exact opposite. The

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sources warn that MBS could use that money to

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buy controlling shares in strategic American

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companies. Think chip manufacturers or even an

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iconic brand like Ford. And once they have a

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controlling interest, their people are on the

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board. They can change priorities. They can push

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to move R &D offshore, force the company to share

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trade secrets. It's basically a legal way to

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gut American industries from the inside. It is

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transaction foreign policy at its most raw. But

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the sources all point to one truly concrete,

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undeniable win. And it was for the family. Absolutely.

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The focus snaps right to the $2 billion investment

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fund that the Saudis gave to the former son -in

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-law Jared Kushner. Right. And from MBS's perspective,

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this is a brilliant low cost investment. He pays

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what is, to him, a pittance, these exorbitant

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management fees, and in return, he gets influence

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and access. That $2 billion fund, that's framed

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as a real win for the family. Let's pivot now

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to the structural foundation of our democracy,

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gerrymandering. And we can start with a really

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surprising lesson out of California, Proposition

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50. Yeah, that 64 % to 36 % vote is so telling.

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It really suggests that for Democratic voters,

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playing fair is not the top priority anymore.

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They just want to win. They want to win any way

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that is legal. And that feeling, that shift...

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is putting enormous pressure on Democratic leaders

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to just abandon unilateral disarmament in these

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mapmaking wars. And this puts a huge target on

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states where Democrats have total control. All

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eyes are on Governor J .B. Pritzker in Illinois.

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Right, because Illinois is a Democratic trifecta.

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They have the governor's office and supermajorities

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in the legislature. Yeah. And this is key, they

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do not have an independent commission. So Pritzker

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literally has the power to draw whatever map

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he wants. And he's positioned to set this new

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hyper aggressive standard. The threat is that

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he could draw a map. that eliminates all three

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Republican districts in the state. Imagine him

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bragging that he created a zero Republican delegation.

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But ironically, as Democrats are gearing up to

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go on offense, the Republican side of this arms

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race has been hitting some major roadblocks.

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That's right. In Kansas and Indiana, for example,

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their efforts to draw these super GOP friendly

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maps just stalled. Not because of a court challenge?

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No, because of fear of the voters. Legislators

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were afraid that if they drew maps that were

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too obviously partisan, their own voters would

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punish them at the polls. They got scared of

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their own shadows. And the news was even worse

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for the GOP in Utah. Much worse. A judge just

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flat out threw out their map. And the new court

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ordered map creates a heavily Democratic district,

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D plus 24. Former Congressman Ben McAdams is

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running there. That looks like a guaranteed GOP

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seat loss. But the biggest blow... the real bombshell

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came out of Texas. That was supposed to be the

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crown jewel of their redistricting effort. Absolutely.

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A three -judge panel blocked their new map. the

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one that was designed to create five new Republican

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seats. The court said it was racially discriminatory.

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And they forced Texas to use the old 2021 map

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for the next election. So the GOP gets zero new

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seats for all that effort. But the wildest detail

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is about the Department of Justice. The court's

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opinion actually cited a letter from the current

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administration's DOJ. But then in the same opinion,

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they ripped that letter to shreds, calling it

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legally unsound and a mess. So you have this

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bizarre situation of a court ruling against a

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Republican map while also kneecapping the Democratic

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administration's legal argument. It's just a

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massive setback for the GOP. And this whole debate

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always comes back to the solution that, you know,

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77 percent of voters say they want. independent

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commissions. But as you said, the devil is always

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in the details of how you structure that commission.

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Right. If you look at California, their model

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is really hard to game because it focuses on

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getting partisans out of the selection process

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itself. They use a panel of state auditors and

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have strict rules like no partisan activity for

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10 years. And Colorado has a different kind of

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safeguard, right, to force consensus. Exactly.

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Their commission has 12 members and you need

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eight votes to approve any map. But here's the

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key. Two of those eight votes must come from

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the independent members. It forces the two parties

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to actually negotiate and find a middle ground.

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So let's talk scale for a second. Based on the

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sources, what would actually happen if blue states

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just go all in on this arms race? Follow the

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Pritzker model. The potential gains are just

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enormous. If you look at the states where Democrats

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already have a trifecta, they could potentially

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pick up 25 seats total. California alone is a

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nine seat prize. And the real prizes are the

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swing states where Democrats might win a trifecta

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soon. Arizona, North Carolina, Pennsylvania.

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Those three states alone could be another 29

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seats. And the level of detail they're going

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into is, it's surgical. We saw data for one hypothetical

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district in North Carolina where the difference

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came down to a single registered Democrat versus

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a single registered Republican. Just incredible.

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That's the level of this fight now. Which brings

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us back one last time to November 19th, 1863.

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to Gettysburg. Right. The ceremony itself was

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delayed until that date so the main speaker,

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Edward Everett, could finish his research for

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what turned out to be a two -hour speech. And

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Lincoln was, you know, almost an afterthought.

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He was just invited to give a few appropriate

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remarks. But in two minutes, he completely redefined

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the entire American project. Starting with that

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first line, four score and seven years ago. by

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dating the country to the Declaration of Independence,

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not the Constitution. He completely shifts the

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focus, because the Constitution at that point

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protected slavery. It counted enslaved people

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as three -fifths of a person. But the Declaration...

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The Declaration defined the nation on the proposition

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that all men are created equal. So Lincoln reframes

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the war. It's not just about saving the Union

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anymore. It's a battle to redefine the nation

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around that idea of equality. And he calls that

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idea a proposition, something we're testing,

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testing whether a nation so conceived and so

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dedicated can long endure. He asks the living

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to dedicate themselves to the unfinished work.

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And he ends with that vow, that the dead shall

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not have died in vain, that the nation will have

00:12:31.100 --> 00:12:33.019
a new birth of freedom, and that government of

00:12:33.019 --> 00:12:35.159
the people by the people for the people shall

00:12:35.159 --> 00:12:38.860
not perish from the earth. That ideal feels So

00:12:38.860 --> 00:12:41.460
far away from the transactional deals and the

00:12:41.460 --> 00:12:43.299
cynical political games. We've just been talking

00:12:43.299 --> 00:12:47.700
about it does and yet There's this one core finding

00:12:47.700 --> 00:12:51.419
from your source material that is so counterintuitive

00:12:51.419 --> 00:12:53.379
It just sort of stops you in your tracks. And

00:12:53.379 --> 00:12:55.899
what's that? It's the idea that this current

00:12:55.899 --> 00:12:59.340
ugly hyper aggressive gerrymandering arms race

00:12:59.340 --> 00:13:01.320
that this might be the only thing that could

00:13:01.320 --> 00:13:04.379
actually force Congress to ban the practice for

00:13:04.379 --> 00:13:06.539
good. So it has to get worse before it gets better.

00:13:06.740 --> 00:13:09.440
Exactly. The theory is that the spectacle of

00:13:09.440 --> 00:13:12.259
both sides engaging in this mutually destructive

00:13:12.259 --> 00:13:15.179
map drawing Pritzker eliminating every Republican

00:13:15.179 --> 00:13:17.620
in Illinois Republicans doing the same elsewhere

00:13:17.620 --> 00:13:20.299
it will create so much public disgust that even

00:13:20.299 --> 00:13:22.259
the partisans will be forced to support reform

00:13:22.259 --> 00:13:24.779
just to save the institution's credibility. It's

00:13:24.779 --> 00:13:28.240
like political mutually assured. Which leaves

00:13:28.240 --> 00:13:30.879
a really provocative question for you, the listener,

00:13:31.019 --> 00:13:32.779
to think about. We've seen how partisan self

00:13:32.779 --> 00:13:35.100
-interest is just dominating everything, but

00:13:35.100 --> 00:13:37.860
if the only path to protecting government of

00:13:37.860 --> 00:13:40.320
the people, by the people, for the people, runs

00:13:40.320 --> 00:13:43.200
through an escalating retaliatory arms race,

00:13:43.620 --> 00:13:45.659
does that make this anti -democratic fight a

00:13:45.659 --> 00:13:48.080
necessary evil to achieve that new birth of freedom?
