WEBVTT 00:00:00.000 --> 00:00:02.980 Welcome to the deep dive. You know, the sources 00:00:02.980 --> 00:00:05.160 you shared with us this week, they give you whiplash. 00:00:05.280 --> 00:00:09.099 They really do. We're moving from this quiet 00:00:09.099 --> 00:00:12.500 appreciation for unsung service straight into 00:00:12.500 --> 00:00:14.980 the, I mean, the scorching heat of political 00:00:14.980 --> 00:00:17.260 combat. Total opposites. So our mission today 00:00:17.260 --> 00:00:21.280 is to really unpack the strategy, the consequences 00:00:21.280 --> 00:00:24.000 and these critical rule of law conflicts that 00:00:24.000 --> 00:00:26.379 have come out of this record breaking government 00:00:26.379 --> 00:00:28.399 shutdown. And it feels necessary to start with 00:00:28.399 --> 00:00:30.820 that first part. Before we dive into the, what, 00:00:31.019 --> 00:00:33.340 43 days of the shutdown? 43 and counting, yeah. 00:00:33.479 --> 00:00:35.439 We should probably frame the whole conversation 00:00:35.439 --> 00:00:39.039 around what sacrifice really means. Exactly. 00:00:39.520 --> 00:00:41.479 We talk about veterans, and of course, rightly 00:00:41.479 --> 00:00:44.420 so. But the sources remind us that so much public 00:00:44.420 --> 00:00:47.899 service is, well, it's defined by low pay, high 00:00:47.899 --> 00:00:51.039 pressure, and just zero fanfare. You see it in 00:00:51.039 --> 00:00:53.259 the groups they identify, medical workers, but 00:00:53.259 --> 00:00:55.460 specifically non -doctors, you know, the ones 00:00:55.460 --> 00:00:57.820 doing the really tough, low -glory work, and 00:00:57.820 --> 00:01:01.000 K -12 teams. They're literally molding the next 00:01:01.000 --> 00:01:04.859 generation while dealing with awful funding and 00:01:04.859 --> 00:01:07.859 low salaries. And then there are the public -spirited 00:01:07.859 --> 00:01:11.120 attorneys. Legal clinic staff, public defenders, 00:01:11.859 --> 00:01:14.480 the people watching polling places. It's a really 00:01:14.480 --> 00:01:16.560 powerful way to ground this conversation. It 00:01:16.560 --> 00:01:19.359 is. OK. So let's pivot to that political stage. 00:01:20.099 --> 00:01:22.359 Because speaking of service and sacrifice, the 00:01:22.359 --> 00:01:24.780 federal government shutdown has now officially 00:01:24.780 --> 00:01:27.719 broken the record. 43 days, and it looks like 00:01:27.719 --> 00:01:31.700 the end is finally in sight with the House returning. 00:01:31.980 --> 00:01:35.180 But that ending has just fueled two completely 00:01:35.180 --> 00:01:38.200 polarized takes. Oh, immediately. The big question 00:01:38.200 --> 00:01:40.700 on everyone's mind is, was this a strategic move 00:01:40.700 --> 00:01:42.980 by the Democrats, or was it just a complete political 00:01:42.980 --> 00:01:45.500 surrender? Let's unpack the anger first. The 00:01:45.500 --> 00:01:48.000 caves camp is absolutely furious. We saw that 00:01:48.000 --> 00:01:50.120 in the mail we got. Yeah, from readers like MO 00:01:50.120 --> 00:01:52.760 in Michigan, RM in Oregon, and then you have 00:01:52.859 --> 00:01:55.760 pundits, John Stewart, Rachel Maddow, all arguing 00:01:55.760 --> 00:01:58.439 that Democrats claim to win, but really only 00:01:58.439 --> 00:02:00.359 got messaging votes. The core of that argument 00:02:00.359 --> 00:02:02.700 is that they just lacked the spine to hold out. 00:02:02.900 --> 00:02:06.219 Exactly. And that now real people might risk 00:02:06.219 --> 00:02:08.460 dying or going bankrupt because they can't get 00:02:08.460 --> 00:02:11.340 medical care. They're saying people need substance, 00:02:11.800 --> 00:02:13.719 not a symbolic vote. But then you get the counter 00:02:13.719 --> 00:02:17.500 argument from defenders like J .S. in Connecticut 00:02:17.500 --> 00:02:20.360 and A .R. in California and a lot of mainstream 00:02:20.360 --> 00:02:22.960 pundits, too. And their take is that this was 00:02:22.960 --> 00:02:26.080 making the absolute best of a terrible, terrible 00:02:26.080 --> 00:02:28.979 situation. They say Democrats successfully showed 00:02:28.979 --> 00:02:31.259 empathy for the millions of people affected, 00:02:31.419 --> 00:02:34.060 which was so key. with the shutdown hitting the 00:02:34.060 --> 00:02:37.060 holidays. It was key. And in doing so, they put 00:02:37.060 --> 00:02:39.939 a huge exclamation point on Republican indifference. 00:02:40.060 --> 00:02:42.180 And this view says they did get two tangible 00:02:42.180 --> 00:02:45.879 wins. First, a promised Senate vote on ACA subsidies. 00:02:46.180 --> 00:02:48.439 Right. And second, seating representative elect 00:02:48.439 --> 00:02:51.680 Grigiova from Arizona. And his presence is the 00:02:51.680 --> 00:02:54.740 critical 218th signature for the Epstein files 00:02:54.740 --> 00:02:57.400 discharge petition. And that's a really crucial 00:02:57.400 --> 00:02:59.520 detail for anyone who isn't deep in legislative 00:02:59.520 --> 00:03:01.780 tactics. I mean, the discharge petition is how 00:03:01.780 --> 00:03:04.560 the minority can force a bill to the floor. Bypassing 00:03:04.560 --> 00:03:06.800 the speaker completely. Bypassing the speaker 00:03:06.800 --> 00:03:09.740 entirely. So getting that final signature, that 00:03:09.740 --> 00:03:12.879 is genuine, measurable leverage. Which brings 00:03:12.879 --> 00:03:15.759 us to, I think, the most interesting synthesis 00:03:15.759 --> 00:03:18.340 from the sources. The idea that this shutdown 00:03:18.340 --> 00:03:21.840 wasn't a game of poker, you know, you know when 00:03:21.840 --> 00:03:24.360 to fold them. Right. It was more like Ulysses 00:03:24.360 --> 00:03:27.330 S. Grant's. Vicksburg campaign. A retrenchment. 00:03:27.490 --> 00:03:30.069 That's the word they use. The idea is that Democrats 00:03:30.069 --> 00:03:32.169 fell back once they realized they couldn't get 00:03:32.169 --> 00:03:34.449 their ultimate goals, like a fundamental fix 00:03:34.449 --> 00:03:36.830 to health care, not in this specific fight anyway. 00:03:36.889 --> 00:03:39.370 So they can serve their energy. Exactly. Preserve 00:03:39.370 --> 00:03:41.810 momentum, keep their political advantages, and 00:03:41.810 --> 00:03:43.789 get ready to fight again when the budget runs 00:03:43.789 --> 00:03:47.150 out on January 30th. So if we accept that Vicksburg 00:03:47.150 --> 00:03:49.969 metaphor, what do they actually lose by falling 00:03:49.969 --> 00:03:53.379 back? Well, they lost the chance to use this 00:03:53.379 --> 00:03:56.400 immediate leverage for bigger policy wins. But 00:03:56.400 --> 00:03:58.659 I think more fundamentally, it just shows how 00:03:58.659 --> 00:04:01.219 hard it is to keep a fight like this going. When 00:04:01.219 --> 00:04:03.719 the consequences are so real for people. Yes. 00:04:04.259 --> 00:04:06.819 It is so much easier to say keep the shutdown 00:04:06.819 --> 00:04:10.159 going when you don't personally depend on, say, 00:04:10.460 --> 00:04:12.960 SNF benefits to feed your family, especially 00:04:12.960 --> 00:04:15.740 during the holidays, that difficulty of abstraction. 00:04:16.529 --> 00:04:19.709 That's what forced the retreat. That context, 00:04:19.709 --> 00:04:22.250 it leads us right into the political fallout. 00:04:22.810 --> 00:04:25.709 And I mean, the staggering tone deafness we saw, 00:04:26.230 --> 00:04:29.269 the spotlight was just searing on the administration's 00:04:29.269 --> 00:04:31.370 actions. Oh, the handling of social services 00:04:31.370 --> 00:04:34.089 was a complete disaster. They completely bungled 00:04:34.089 --> 00:04:37.220 SNAP. Slopping all over the place. Just back 00:04:37.220 --> 00:04:39.439 and forth between promises and retractions. It 00:04:39.439 --> 00:04:42.160 basically screamed that they had no concern for 00:04:42.160 --> 00:04:44.839 people who rely on those benefits. A total PR 00:04:44.839 --> 00:04:47.680 failure. And the optics. While millions are worried 00:04:47.680 --> 00:04:50.480 about their mortgages, their food, the administration 00:04:50.480 --> 00:04:52.860 is tearing down the east wing of the White House 00:04:52.860 --> 00:04:55.199 and renovating the Lincoln bathroom. The message 00:04:55.199 --> 00:04:57.600 couldn't be clearer. There's money for remodeling, 00:04:57.740 --> 00:05:00.519 but not for you. And you can't, you just can't 00:05:00.519 --> 00:05:03.240 overlook the ultimate visual gaffe. The Great 00:05:03.240 --> 00:05:05.759 Gatsby Party. The Great Gatsby themed Halloween 00:05:05.759 --> 00:05:08.240 party at Mar -a -Lago. You can't make it up. 00:05:08.399 --> 00:05:10.519 The sources point out the brutal irony, right? 00:05:11.079 --> 00:05:15.339 The Great Gatsby is a book about corrupt, decadent, 00:05:15.360 --> 00:05:17.800 rich people flaunting their wealth. It's the 00:05:17.800 --> 00:05:20.300 whole point of the book. And to throw that specific 00:05:20.300 --> 00:05:23.139 party right as people were about to miss getting 00:05:23.139 --> 00:05:26.689 critical benefits. It just shows a stunning, 00:05:26.750 --> 00:05:29.689 stunning lack of political awareness. Meanwhile, 00:05:29.829 --> 00:05:31.990 Speaker Mike Johnson wasn't doing himself any 00:05:31.990 --> 00:05:34.670 favors. When he was pressed on the Republican 00:05:34.670 --> 00:05:38.149 health care plans, he said the GOP had solutions. 00:05:38.509 --> 00:05:40.990 He said they had. Notebooks full of ideas. It 00:05:40.990 --> 00:05:44.230 was an instant echo of Mitt Romney's binders 00:05:44.230 --> 00:05:47.050 full of women. An infamous gaffe. And for Johnson 00:05:47.050 --> 00:05:49.550 to make that exact same structural mistake, whether 00:05:49.550 --> 00:05:51.790 he knew it or not, it just suggests his political 00:05:51.790 --> 00:05:55.189 radar is off. or maybe not developed for that 00:05:55.189 --> 00:05:57.689 national stage yet. So looking at the actual 00:05:57.689 --> 00:06:00.810 policy losses here, the sources do seem to concede 00:06:00.810 --> 00:06:03.069 that Democrats were, quote, definitely going 00:06:03.069 --> 00:06:05.329 to lose on any big health care concessions. Yeah, 00:06:05.350 --> 00:06:07.810 and this gets at a deeper truth. Extending ACA 00:06:07.810 --> 00:06:10.319 subsidies for a year, it's a bandaid. A short 00:06:10.319 --> 00:06:12.959 -term fix. It doesn't fix the underlying problem. 00:06:13.120 --> 00:06:15.300 Not at all. It doesn't address the fundamental 00:06:15.300 --> 00:06:18.439 system where the U .S. spends twice as much as 00:06:18.439 --> 00:06:21.259 any other industrialized democracy for health 00:06:21.259 --> 00:06:23.439 outcomes that are objectively worse. And the 00:06:23.439 --> 00:06:25.660 source is called this a dirty secret. Right. 00:06:25.980 --> 00:06:27.720 That many Democrats were really fighting for 00:06:27.720 --> 00:06:29.480 something else. They were fighting for limits 00:06:29.480 --> 00:06:31.959 on what they see as executive authoritarianism. 00:06:32.240 --> 00:06:34.079 Health care was just the more compelling issue 00:06:34.079 --> 00:06:36.379 to lead with for voters. And on the procedural 00:06:36.379 --> 00:06:39.759 side. They didn't manage to cause enough chaos 00:06:39.759 --> 00:06:42.980 to, say, force the end of the Senate filibuster. 00:06:43.139 --> 00:06:45.399 Which is a huge lost opportunity, even if it 00:06:45.399 --> 00:06:48.000 was always a long shot. The filibuster basically 00:06:48.000 --> 00:06:50.980 makes the legislature inert. And when that happens, 00:06:51.279 --> 00:06:53.920 power just bleeds away from Congress and flows 00:06:53.920 --> 00:06:56.139 to the executive branch. Violating the whole 00:06:56.139 --> 00:06:59.480 separation of powers idea. Completely. A longer, 00:06:59.699 --> 00:07:01.879 uglier shutdown might have forced the Senate's 00:07:01.879 --> 00:07:04.350 hand on reforming it. Maybe. And before we move 00:07:04.350 --> 00:07:06.230 on from the legislative side, we have to mention 00:07:06.230 --> 00:07:09.810 the pork under the radar. Oh, right. The language 00:07:09.810 --> 00:07:12.649 that some GOP senators inserted into the resolution. 00:07:12.790 --> 00:07:15.389 Allowing them to sue the FBI for up to half a 00:07:15.389 --> 00:07:17.769 million dollars each over phone records. It's 00:07:17.769 --> 00:07:19.670 a really disturbing detail. It's based on this 00:07:19.670 --> 00:07:22.410 conspiracy theory about the FBI. But regardless 00:07:22.410 --> 00:07:24.750 of the legal basis, the consensus is that this 00:07:24.750 --> 00:07:27.629 is an intimidation tactic. A warning shot. A 00:07:27.629 --> 00:07:29.750 clear warning shot to federal law enforcement. 00:07:30.170 --> 00:07:33.050 don't investigate us. It just shows how the budget 00:07:33.050 --> 00:07:36.910 process can be used to jam through these completely 00:07:36.910 --> 00:07:39.689 unrelated high stakes political moves. OK, so 00:07:39.689 --> 00:07:41.509 let's transition from legislative dysfunction 00:07:41.509 --> 00:07:43.810 straight to the judicial front. This is where 00:07:43.810 --> 00:07:45.990 we see the most aggressive conflict emerging. 00:07:46.529 --> 00:07:49.769 Rule of law versus executive overreach on immigration. 00:07:50.089 --> 00:07:51.810 And this is where the scale of the conflict just 00:07:51.810 --> 00:07:54.269 becomes massive. The administration, with Stephen 00:07:54.269 --> 00:07:56.990 Miller really spearheading it, systematically 00:07:56.990 --> 00:08:00.839 reversed 30 years of established policy. by radically 00:08:00.839 --> 00:08:03.120 changing detention practices. Enforcement now 00:08:03.120 --> 00:08:05.860 targets anyone who might violate civil immigration 00:08:05.860 --> 00:08:08.779 law. And that has led to mass arrests and racial 00:08:08.779 --> 00:08:11.980 profiling that has repeatedly caught actual US 00:08:11.980 --> 00:08:14.100 citizens in its dragnet. And they did this by 00:08:14.100 --> 00:08:17.779 reinterpreting a key legal term. An illegal reinterpretation, 00:08:17.839 --> 00:08:20.180 according to the courts. They changed the meaning 00:08:20.180 --> 00:08:23.240 of applicant for admission to include long -term 00:08:23.240 --> 00:08:25.939 US residents. Which means? It means they argue 00:08:25.939 --> 00:08:28.519 these residents have no more due process rights 00:08:28.519 --> 00:08:30.259 than someone showing up at the border for the 00:08:30.259 --> 00:08:33.200 first time. It effectively strips them of constitutional 00:08:33.200 --> 00:08:39.139 protections. A huge judicial resistance. Massive 00:08:39.139 --> 00:08:41.139 and unified. We're talking about a real David 00:08:41.139 --> 00:08:45.500 versus Goliath situation. Over one hundred judges. 00:08:45.600 --> 00:08:48.220 A hundred. Over one hundred. And these are judges 00:08:48.220 --> 00:08:50.840 appointed by presidents from Ronald Reagan all 00:08:50.840 --> 00:08:53.820 the way to Trump himself. And they have uniformly 00:08:53.820 --> 00:08:56.080 rejected this practice as a violation of both 00:08:56.080 --> 00:08:58.720 immigration law and constitutional rights. It's 00:08:58.720 --> 00:09:01.000 literally one versus a hundred in terms of court 00:09:01.000 --> 00:09:03.080 losses for this policy. Wow. And the pushback 00:09:03.080 --> 00:09:05.679 has been specific to judges finding detention 00:09:05.710 --> 00:09:08.409 conditions inhumane. People sleeping next to 00:09:08.409 --> 00:09:11.090 overflowing toilets, things like that. And they've 00:09:11.090 --> 00:09:13.429 issued injunctions against using tear gas and 00:09:13.429 --> 00:09:15.730 pepper bullets on protesters in Portland and 00:09:15.730 --> 00:09:18.629 Chicago. So how did the administration respond 00:09:18.629 --> 00:09:22.289 to losing over 100 times in court? Well. The 00:09:22.289 --> 00:09:24.470 deputy attorney general went to a Federalist 00:09:24.470 --> 00:09:27.169 Society conference and delivered a blistering 00:09:27.169 --> 00:09:29.830 attack on the entire judiciary. He called it 00:09:29.830 --> 00:09:34.129 a war man against rogue activist judges. That's 00:09:34.129 --> 00:09:36.049 that's an open declaration of war on the third 00:09:36.049 --> 00:09:38.850 branch of government. It is. And it all culminated 00:09:38.850 --> 00:09:41.789 with Judge Mark Wolf, a very respected Reagan 00:09:41.789 --> 00:09:45.190 appointee, retiring. He retired specifically 00:09:45.190 --> 00:09:47.350 so he could speak candidly about what he called 00:09:47.350 --> 00:09:50.070 the White House's assault on the rule of law. 00:09:50.190 --> 00:09:52.210 He said it was like pulling the fire alarm. He 00:09:52.210 --> 00:09:54.710 felt silence was no longer an option. It perfectly 00:09:54.710 --> 00:09:57.350 illustrates the central theme here. When the 00:09:57.350 --> 00:10:00.110 legislature is paralyzed and the executive overreaches, 00:10:00.529 --> 00:10:03.549 the judiciary becomes the last line of constitutional 00:10:03.549 --> 00:10:05.309 defense. Just a couple of housekeeping notes 00:10:05.309 --> 00:10:07.690 before we wrap. We saw an unusual retirement 00:10:07.690 --> 00:10:10.230 representative, Jody Errington, a 53 year old 00:10:10.230 --> 00:10:12.389 Republican. He chairs the Budget Committee and 00:10:12.389 --> 00:10:15.950 holds an incredibly safe R plus 25 seat in Texas. 00:10:16.129 --> 00:10:18.049 It's very strange to leave a leadership post 00:10:18.049 --> 00:10:20.799 in a seat that safe. Eyely unusual. The motives 00:10:20.799 --> 00:10:23.279 could be altruistic. He said he believes in temporary 00:10:23.279 --> 00:10:26.100 service. Or, you know, they could be pragmatic. 00:10:26.519 --> 00:10:28.919 Maybe he's aiming for a lucrative lobbying career 00:10:28.919 --> 00:10:31.940 while his influence is at its peak. Right, before 00:10:31.940 --> 00:10:34.379 the political landscape potentially shifts. Exactly. 00:10:34.539 --> 00:10:36.960 And on the other side of the aisle, former representative 00:10:36.960 --> 00:10:39.679 Elaine Luria is running again in Virginia. She 00:10:39.679 --> 00:10:41.840 lost her district, which is a perfect even on 00:10:41.840 --> 00:10:44.340 the partisan voter index. So a true toss up. 00:10:44.419 --> 00:10:46.899 A true toss up. She lost it by only three points 00:10:46.899 --> 00:10:50.120 in 2022. She's clearly feeling good about her 00:10:50.120 --> 00:10:52.559 chances now, especially with recent Democratic 00:10:52.559 --> 00:10:55.740 successes in the state. So after all that, what 00:10:55.740 --> 00:10:58.580 does this mean for you, the listener? We've walked 00:10:58.580 --> 00:11:01.840 through this high stakes tension strategic retreat 00:11:01.840 --> 00:11:04.480 versus giving up leverage in the shutdown. And 00:11:04.480 --> 00:11:06.679 the escalating fight between the executive and 00:11:06.679 --> 00:11:09.100 the judiciary. The key advice from all these 00:11:09.100 --> 00:11:11.480 sources is pretty clear. This budget fight is 00:11:11.480 --> 00:11:14.279 coming right back around on January 30th. So 00:11:14.279 --> 00:11:15.919 if you want to influence the strategy for the 00:11:15.919 --> 00:11:18.620 next round, now is the time to contact your representatives. 00:11:19.000 --> 00:11:22.080 That fight is definitely inevitable. But let's 00:11:22.080 --> 00:11:23.740 leave you with a provocative thought, one that 00:11:23.740 --> 00:11:25.740 comes directly from that judicial conflict we 00:11:25.740 --> 00:11:28.539 just analyzed. The sources identify the judiciary 00:11:28.539 --> 00:11:31.639 as the last line of defense against an authoritarian 00:11:31.639 --> 00:11:34.470 regime. So given that the executive branch is 00:11:34.470 --> 00:11:36.750 now openly attacking the legitimacy of the courts 00:11:36.750 --> 00:11:39.529 after losing over 100 times on a fundamental 00:11:39.529 --> 00:11:42.750 policy, is the long -term integrity, the independence 00:11:42.750 --> 00:11:45.149 of the judiciary, now the most critical and maybe 00:11:45.149 --> 00:11:47.330 the most fragile vulnerability in the entire 00:11:47.330 --> 00:11:50.090 American constitutional system? Something to 00:11:50.090 --> 00:11:51.389 chew on until next time.