WEBVTT

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Welcome back to The Deep Dive. And before we

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jump into all the serious political business,

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we do want to start today by sending our really

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heartfelt Happy Veterans Day to all veterans.

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And to the civilians whose support made their

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service possible. Thank you. Absolutely. Now,

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let's pivot hard to Washington because our stack

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of sources today is, it's a high -stakes snapshot

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of these pressure points. We're looking at some

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severe legislative gridlock, a domestic economy

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that is causing real pain for voters, and a crucial

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Supreme Court decision that I think went... largely

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unnoticed. You really did. Our mission is to

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take you through the, well, the minefield Speaker

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Johnson is currently navigating and some of the

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truly baffling economic proposals coming out

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of the White House. That's a perfect framing.

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We're tracking three major dynamics for you today.

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First, the return of the House and the immediate

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serious legislative threats to the Speaker's

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tenure. Right. Second, this widening chasm between

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the administration's focus on foreign policy

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and the pain voters are feeling over cost of

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living issues. The kitchen table issues. Exactly.

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And the policy vacuum that's trying to fill that

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gap. And third, the surprising and legally significant

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stability that the Supreme Court just afforded

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to same -sex marriage. Okay, let's unpack this,

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starting with the House. Our sources feature

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that classic 1974 headline, you know, referencing

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Elton John, the bitch is back. A classic. And

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it really reflects this highly anticipated and

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in many circles dreaded return to the House after

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what, nearly seven weeks of recess? Yes, seven

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weeks. And the immediate pressure point is that

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the Senate passed a temporary budget bill. Now

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the House has to approve it or we're looking

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at a shutdown. So the speaker is facing multiple

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crises all at once. before the week is even out.

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Oh, absolutely. And the first one is just pure

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logistics. In political circles, they often call

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it white flight. Right. Votes are scheduled for

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this afternoon, but it's genuinely unclear if

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all the Republican members can even get back

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to D .C. in time. You're kidding. Just getting

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there is a problem. It is. Especially for those

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from rural areas who rely on these, you know,

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limited service regional airports. The lingering

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government funding issues have complicated things

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like air traffic controller staffing. So there

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are just fewer flights. So once they are physically

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present, then they have to face the legislative

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bomb threat. Precisely. Today, Johnson must swear

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in the new representative -elect from Arizona,

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Adelita Grialva. Okay. And the moment she's sworn

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in, She will find Thomas Massey's discharge petition.

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And that's the mechanism that forces a vote,

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right? It forces a vote. In this case, on a spending

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issue that the former president absolutely does

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not want. Our sources indicate Trump is already

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prepared to blame Johnson personally if that

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petition succeeds. Wow. So that's immediate political

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dynamite he has to handle. Day one. Day one.

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Let's pivot to the political calculus of the

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Obamacare subsidies. A Senate bill is likely

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coming to restore those subsidies, which lapsed.

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So. Johnson has to decide whether to even bring

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that bill to a vote. Why is this so dangerous

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for him? It's a textbook, damned if you do, damned

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if you don't situation. On one side, you have

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your swing district Republicans and they are

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panicking. They know they're going to get crushed.

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They know they will suffer devastating losses

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in 2026 if they're seen as the one stripping

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subsidies from middle class voters. They're absolutely

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ready to sign a discharge petition themselves

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to force a vote if Johnson stalls. But if he

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does allow the vote, he immediately makes his

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base furious. Who is he risking everything with

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there? Two incredibly powerful factions. First.

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Donald Trump. He wants the subsidies killed,

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sees it as a step towards dismantling the ACA,

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and second, the House Freedom Caucus. They are,

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you know, ideologically opposed to this kind

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of spending. If Johnson lets the bill pass, they

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could file that motion to vacate and threaten

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his job all over again. But if he kills the bill,

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he's looking at a long -term electoral disaster.

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Exactly. He's just delaying the inevitable bad

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decision until March or April, when political

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fear might finally force his hand. And all this

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is happening while the clock is ticking on the

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actual federal budget for FY 2025 -26, which

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is due January 30th. And many in his own party

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won't even agree to a simple continuing resolution.

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Which, just for our listeners, is just a short

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-term stopgap measure to keep the lights on.

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It is a true legislative minefield. It is. Moving

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on. The gridlock we just discussed in Congress

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Johnson's inability to unify the right, it seems

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to be mirrored by a policy vacuum in the administration.

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That's a great way to put it. Our sources cite

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this fascinating dynamic. Despite his history

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as the businessman president, the focus is so

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heavy on foreign policy, tariffs, global conflicts,

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while these kitchen table issues just get worse.

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And the evidence of voter pain is palpable. I

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mean, these aren't abstract inflation numbers.

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True. These are line item costs you see every

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day. Coffee prices, for instance, jumped from

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seven to over nine dollars a pound since January.

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They've seen that. And a McDonald's combo meal

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is now fifteen dollars. $15. Steak is up from

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under $12 to over $14 a pound. This is real financial

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strain, and voters are noticing that nobody at

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the top is talking about it. And White House

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insiders anonymously told Politico that everyone

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is trying to pressure the president to shift

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focus back to cost of living issues. Which he

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has avoided discussing publicly for months. And

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the critiques from conservatives are not holding

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back. They're brutal. I saw that. It's not just

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the public tension with, say, Marjorie Taylor

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Greene over things like health care and SNIP

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funding. No. The more serious critique came from

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Sean Davis, the co -founder of The Federalist.

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He published this, this scathing rebuke arguing

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the GOP has, and I'm quoting here, no accomplishments,

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no plans, and no vision. Wow. And he specifically

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noted that young people are locked out of the

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economy and can't own homes. When foundational

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conservative voices are saying that, it signals

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a major internal crisis. Which leads us directly

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to the three economic ideas recently proposed

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to fill this policy gap. They are. Well, they're

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unique. Let's start with the Obamacare replacement.

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Health care savings accounts. potentially subsidized

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by the government. Okay, but if the goal is to

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make people feel better about health care costs,

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wouldn't a government -subsidized HSA at least

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be a political win, even if the math is a little

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off? You'd think so. But only if you ignore both

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the math and the politics. The main critique

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is that HSAs are fundamentally regressive. Meaning

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they help the wealthy. They overwhelmingly benefit

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people who have the extra cash flow to contribute

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in the first place and get the tax benefits.

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Then the math gets even worse. The government

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spends about $100 billion a year on Obamacare

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subsidies. OK. But non -covered health care expenses

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for Americans run about $500 billion annually.

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That $100 billion doesn't even make a dent. So

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politically, the Freedom Caucus screams about

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the cost and Democrats scream about it being

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regressive. It's dead on arrival. Just completely

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dead. OK, next up, 50 -year mortgages. The idea

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is simple, right? Spread out the payments to

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lower the monthly bill. And this is where the

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profound lack of financial understanding really

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reveals itself. The reduction in the monthly

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payment is just marginal. For an average $400

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,000 house, extending the loan from 30 to 50

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years only cuts the payment by about $233 a month.

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That's not enough to make a real difference for

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a first -time buyer. Not when you're facing a

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7 % interest rate. Not at all. And what happens

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to the total cost? That's the part that blew

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me away in the source material. The total cost

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nearly doubles. A 30 -year mortgage might have,

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say, $350 ,000 in interest. Right. A 50 -year

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loan? especially with a higher risk -based rate,

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could easily cost the borrower $700, maybe even

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$900 ,000 in total interest. That's insane. Plus,

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the homeowner builds no meaningful equity for

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decades. You're basically tied to this debt well

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into your retirement years. And crucially, they're

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not backed by Fannie Mae or Freddie Mac. Yeah.

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Banks won't touch them. So you save about five

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bucks a week, but you're ensuring you'll be paying

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off your own debt when your grandkids are in

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college. That's a good way to put it. Yes. The

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third idea, the $2 ,000 tariff dividends, checks

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for all Americans funded by tariff revenue, is

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the final piece of this puzzle. Which of course

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are mostly paid by American consumers and businesses,

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not foreign governments. Correct. And that economic

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fallacy highlights the core math problem. The

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U .S. has collected roughly $200 billion in tariff

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revenue. The cost of giving every adult $2 ,000

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is somewhere between $300 and $350 billion. So

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the math fails instantly. Instantly. On top of

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that, he's also promised to use that same $200

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billion to fund the HSAs and reduce the national

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debt. You can't spend the same money three times.

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And Congress has to approve it anyway. It's not

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a slush fund. Exactly. It's just not workable

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policy. So while Washington obsesses over unworkable

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ideas, the Supreme Court has quietly reinforced

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a critical area of social law. Let's shift to

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the judicial branch. The court denied cert in

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Davis v. Ermold. Which means Kim Davis, the former

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Kentucky clerk, lost her final bid to challenge

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the 2015 Obergefell decision. The one that legalized

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same -sex marriage nationwide. That's the one.

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And the immediate consequence for her is severe.

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She had to pay $100 ,000 in damages and $260

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,000 in attorney's fees. And her case was always

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Pretty weak, inherently weak because she didn't

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just refuse to issue licenses herself. She dictated

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policy for the whole office, preventing others

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from doing their jobs. And the court basically

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confirmed you can't undo an illegal act years

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after the fact. So this denial, it signals a

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broader legal sentiment that same sex marriage

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is actually remarkably stable, especially compared

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to the volatility around abortion after Roe v.

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Way was overturned. That is the essential legal

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takeaway for you, the listener. The widespread

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reliance on Obergefell is the key stabilizing

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factor here. Hundreds of thousands of couples

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married in reliance on that ruling. Overturning

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it now would open an absolute Pandora's box of

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legal problems. Just think about it. What happens

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to adoptions, property divisions, decades of

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joint tax returns, social security survivor benefits?

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So we have to connect this back to Dobbs. Why

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was overturning Roe legally feasible, but overturning

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Obergefell is not. Well, Justice Alito, in the

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Dobbs opinion, expressly limited his ruling to

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abortion. That was the price to get five votes.

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Okay. And abortion is a finite event. It has

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a beginning and an end. Roe also suffered, you

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know, death by a thousand cuts over decades through

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state regulations. Whereas marriage is. Marriage

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is an ongoing state of being. And overturning

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of Obergefell would be sudden, traumatic, and

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create immediate unfixable chaos in the lives

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of millions. The legal and social blowback the

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court would face makes it highly unlikely. Even

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with the current conservative majority. Even

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with this majority. Finally, we need to note

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a bit of congressional heist -keeping that actually

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holds some real strategic meaning. The retirement

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of Representative Bonnie Watson Coleman. A progressive

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leader from New Jersey. Her departure highlights

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a significant trend. We already have 46 House

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retirements this cycle, 25 Democrats and 21 Republicans.

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And the total number is about average, but the

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significance is where they're coming from. Exactly.

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The majority of retirements are from the Democrats,

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the party that's actually predicted to take back

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the House in 2027. So what does it mean when

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the party expected to gain power is seeing more

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retirements? It suggests this isn't about vulnerability.

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It's about intentional change, a strategic passing

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the baton. Many of these long -serving Democrats

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are stepping aside to allow younger members to

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gain seniority now. So they're positioning the

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party for a deeper, more energized bench for

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when they take the majority. It's strategic planning,

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not fear of losing. We even saw a hint of this

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in California. Nancy Pelosi's daughter Christine

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chose to run for state Senate instead of her

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mother's house seat. Avoiding those dynastic

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undertones. And maybe recognizing that at age

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60, she was sort of counter to this new youth

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movement. The Democrats are actively working

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to reshape their public face for the next decade.

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So we've synthesized a Washington where Congress

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is returning to face these unavoidable destructive

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legislative crises. A presidential administration

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is facing a crippling economic relevance problem

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with nonsensical policy. And the judicial branch

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is quietly affirming stability in a critical

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social area. So what does this all mean? For

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our final thought, we've laid out three wildly

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problematic economic ideas coming from the top.

00:12:43.330 --> 00:12:46.250
HSAs, 50 -year mortgages, and tariff dividends.

00:12:46.990 --> 00:12:49.470
If these proposals are seen by policy experts

00:12:49.470 --> 00:12:52.070
across the spectrum as mathematically or politically

00:12:52.070 --> 00:12:55.100
impossible, What does that imply about the feasibility

00:12:55.100 --> 00:12:58.779
of any grand, immediate federal fix for the financial

00:12:58.779 --> 00:13:00.940
pain voters are feeling? That's a big question.

00:13:01.179 --> 00:13:03.000
Does the federal government even have the tools

00:13:03.000 --> 00:13:05.480
to solve the cost of living problem without creating

00:13:05.480 --> 00:13:07.659
even larger structural issues down the road?

00:13:07.960 --> 00:13:09.460
That is the question you, the listener, need

00:13:09.460 --> 00:13:11.759
to consider as you process all this. A tough

00:13:11.759 --> 00:13:13.899
question to chew on as we wrap up this deep dive.

00:13:14.000 --> 00:13:14.980
Thank you for joining us.
