WEBVTT 00:00:00.000 --> 00:00:02.560 Welcome to the deep dive. You've handed us a 00:00:02.560 --> 00:00:06.860 stack of sources. And wow, they tell two really 00:00:06.860 --> 00:00:09.539 interconnected but almost contradictory stories 00:00:09.539 --> 00:00:11.679 of an American politics right now. They really 00:00:11.679 --> 00:00:14.140 do. On one hand, you've got these election results 00:00:14.140 --> 00:00:17.839 suggesting this huge surge of momentum for one 00:00:17.839 --> 00:00:19.480 side. They have the blue team. Yeah. But then 00:00:19.480 --> 00:00:21.100 on the other hand, we have the federal government 00:00:21.100 --> 00:00:25.300 just ground to a complete halt, frozen. Exactly. 00:00:25.800 --> 00:00:28.219 So our mission today, it's kind of split. First, 00:00:28.260 --> 00:00:31.000 we need to understand that sheer, poll -defying 00:00:31.000 --> 00:00:33.060 strength we saw from Democrats in those off -year 00:00:33.060 --> 00:00:35.700 elections. Think New Jersey, Virginia, those 00:00:35.700 --> 00:00:38.439 big city races. OK. And second, we have to synthesize 00:00:38.439 --> 00:00:40.539 what people are saying, the impacts, the theories, 00:00:40.640 --> 00:00:42.659 the predictions about this government shutdown, 00:00:42.759 --> 00:00:45.060 which, well, it just smashed the record. Right. 00:00:45.100 --> 00:00:47.240 So the big question we're framing this whole 00:00:47.240 --> 00:00:50.420 deep dive around is pretty simple. Did that undeniable 00:00:50.420 --> 00:00:53.020 momentum we saw in the states, did it actually 00:00:53.020 --> 00:00:56.060 travel 3 ,000 miles to Washington to break the 00:00:56.060 --> 00:00:59.369 stalemate? or not. That's the core puzzle. Let's 00:00:59.369 --> 00:01:01.170 start with those governor races because the margins 00:01:01.170 --> 00:01:03.950 were just surprising. We have to, yeah. Because 00:01:03.950 --> 00:01:06.030 the story isn't just the Democrats won, it's 00:01:06.030 --> 00:01:08.329 how much the polls seem to have missed it. Completely 00:01:08.329 --> 00:01:10.730 missed it in some cases. New Jersey is probably 00:01:10.730 --> 00:01:13.030 the prime example, wouldn't you say? I think 00:01:13.030 --> 00:01:15.370 so, right? Mikey Sherrill won the governorship 00:01:15.370 --> 00:01:18.019 pretty decisively over Jaxie Atarelli. the Republican. 00:01:18.500 --> 00:01:23.219 But the final margin, 56 .2 percent to 43 .2 00:01:23.219 --> 00:01:25.900 percent. That's a full 13 points. A 13 point 00:01:25.900 --> 00:01:29.019 win. And that margin, that's the proof of a, 00:01:29.019 --> 00:01:32.400 well, a dramatic polling failure. The aggregators, 00:01:32.459 --> 00:01:34.700 they had Cheryl's lead somewhere between what? 00:01:34.829 --> 00:01:37.569 Three and five points? Yeah, roughly three to 00:01:37.569 --> 00:01:40.590 maybe six points max in most forecasts. And the 00:01:40.590 --> 00:01:42.629 analysts in your sources, they pretty much agree. 00:01:42.790 --> 00:01:45.530 Almost no single poll even got close to double 00:01:45.530 --> 00:01:47.909 digits for her lead. So here's the really crucial 00:01:47.909 --> 00:01:50.650 insight, I think. The plausible explanation isn't 00:01:50.650 --> 00:01:53.409 just, oh, people lied to pollsters. It's more 00:01:53.409 --> 00:01:56.129 that the pollsters fundamentally got the electorate 00:01:56.129 --> 00:01:58.790 wrong. They modeled it incorrectly. Exactly. 00:01:58.909 --> 00:02:00.930 They just whiffed completely on who was actually 00:02:00.930 --> 00:02:04.390 going to show up. probably underestimated Democratic 00:02:04.390 --> 00:02:06.730 turnout, especially for an off year, and maybe 00:02:06.730 --> 00:02:08.949 overestimated how engaged the Republican base 00:02:08.949 --> 00:02:10.969 was going to be. And we saw a similar dynamic 00:02:10.969 --> 00:02:13.050 play out in Virginia, didn't we? Although the 00:02:13.050 --> 00:02:17.889 polling miss there was maybe slightly less. Profound. 00:02:18.150 --> 00:02:21.050 Abigail Spanberger won there by 15 .2 points. 00:02:21.270 --> 00:02:26.189 So 57 .5 % to 42 .3%. Still a huge margin. Still 00:02:26.189 --> 00:02:28.409 huge. And the average missed by pollsters was 00:02:28.409 --> 00:02:31.110 about 5 .5 points. Still definitely outside the 00:02:31.110 --> 00:02:33.409 margin of error. But it just confirms that trend. 00:02:33.870 --> 00:02:36.090 A major undercount of Democratic support. But 00:02:36.090 --> 00:02:37.930 hang on. Why do people always say Virginia is 00:02:37.930 --> 00:02:39.849 more predictive of the national mood than New 00:02:39.849 --> 00:02:42.430 Jersey? Is it just because it's closer to DC? 00:02:42.870 --> 00:02:44.860 Or is there some other reason? Well, proximity 00:02:44.860 --> 00:02:47.340 probably helps a bit, sure. But there's a critical 00:02:47.340 --> 00:02:50.240 structural reason. Virginia's state constitution, 00:02:50.240 --> 00:02:52.479 it actually prohibits governors from serving 00:02:52.479 --> 00:02:54.979 consecutive terms. Oh, right. So every election 00:02:54.979 --> 00:02:57.039 is an open seat. Exactly. Every single time, 00:02:57.139 --> 00:02:59.319 it's an open contest. It's not clouded by any 00:02:59.319 --> 00:03:01.520 effects of incumbency. So that makes it a much 00:03:01.520 --> 00:03:03.419 cleaner snapshot of the political environment 00:03:03.419 --> 00:03:05.800 at that moment. OK, that makes sense. And if 00:03:05.800 --> 00:03:08.080 you connect that to the historical analysis and 00:03:08.080 --> 00:03:10.580 the sources you gave us, the pattern seems to 00:03:10.580 --> 00:03:13.060 hold up. When Democrats win these governor races 00:03:13.060 --> 00:03:16.060 by five points or more, which they absolutely 00:03:16.060 --> 00:03:20.120 did in both states in 2025, they have historically 00:03:20.120 --> 00:03:22.479 tended to do pretty well in the House elections 00:03:22.479 --> 00:03:24.659 the following year. That feels like a powerful 00:03:24.659 --> 00:03:27.180 indicator, then. OK, let's broaden out from just 00:03:27.180 --> 00:03:29.900 the governor's race in Virginia, because the 00:03:29.900 --> 00:03:33.919 wins there had immediate structural consequences 00:03:33.919 --> 00:03:36.629 for map drawing and power. Oh, absolutely. The 00:03:36.629 --> 00:03:38.770 victory wasn't just Spanberger at the top. You 00:03:38.770 --> 00:03:41.090 had Ghazala Hashmi, the lieutenant governor -elect, 00:03:41.150 --> 00:03:44.349 winning by over 11 points. Big historical firsts 00:03:44.349 --> 00:03:46.509 there, too. Yeah, first person of Asian descent, 00:03:46.930 --> 00:03:49.430 first Muslim to hold statewide office in Virginia. 00:03:49.729 --> 00:03:52.270 That's significant. Definitely. And the attorney 00:03:52.270 --> 00:03:54.770 general -elect Jay Jones also won comfortably. 00:03:55.110 --> 00:03:57.189 But the really, really consequential win, you're 00:03:57.189 --> 00:03:59.110 saying, came in the legislature. That's where 00:03:59.110 --> 00:04:01.030 the ground really shifted. Democrats flipped 00:04:01.030 --> 00:04:03.689 13 seats in the House of Delegates. That gave 00:04:03.689 --> 00:04:08.000 them, at minimum, a 64 - which means they established 00:04:08.000 --> 00:04:11.759 a full party. Trifecta, is that the term? Trifecta, 00:04:12.000 --> 00:04:14.000 exactly. And we should probably clarify that 00:04:14.000 --> 00:04:16.759 for the listener. A trifecta just means one party 00:04:16.759 --> 00:04:19.199 controls the governorship, the state senate, 00:04:19.420 --> 00:04:22.100 and the state house. It's total control, basically. 00:04:22.100 --> 00:04:24.860 Well, full power. And in Virginia, the implications 00:04:24.860 --> 00:04:27.720 are especially high because of that unique constitutional 00:04:27.720 --> 00:04:30.720 setup we mentioned. The governor cannot veto 00:04:30.720 --> 00:04:34.139 map changes passed by the legislature. Wow. OK, 00:04:34.279 --> 00:04:37.240 so legislative control alone is enough. It's 00:04:37.240 --> 00:04:39.480 enough to draw new district lines as long as 00:04:39.480 --> 00:04:42.300 those changes get approved by two consecutive 00:04:42.300 --> 00:04:45.339 legislative sessions. OK, so by winning this 00:04:45.339 --> 00:04:48.339 trifecta now, Democrats have cleared the first 00:04:48.339 --> 00:04:51.060 hurdle. They've got requirement one done. They'll 00:04:51.060 --> 00:04:52.699 complete the second half when the new session 00:04:52.699 --> 00:04:55.540 starts in January. And that gives them the runway 00:04:55.540 --> 00:04:57.959 to push through some pretty ambitious gerrymandering 00:04:57.959 --> 00:05:00.319 goals. And the sources say the specific goal 00:05:00.319 --> 00:05:03.040 is... Setting up the party to win three more 00:05:03.040 --> 00:05:05.699 U .S. House seats than they currently hold. That's 00:05:05.699 --> 00:05:07.879 the target. The stakes are huge, then. What about 00:05:07.879 --> 00:05:10.040 New Jersey? They kept their trifecta too, right? 00:05:10.220 --> 00:05:12.600 They did. Democrats maintained their trifecta 00:05:12.600 --> 00:05:14.879 there. But the source material suggests that 00:05:14.879 --> 00:05:17.959 trying to gerrymander before 2028 faces a much 00:05:17.959 --> 00:05:21.220 steeper path legally. It's time consuming. So 00:05:21.220 --> 00:05:23.860 Virginia is really the immediate prize. Got it. 00:05:24.060 --> 00:05:26.420 And we shouldn't just skip over the city results 00:05:26.420 --> 00:05:28.980 either. No, definitely not. That city sweep was 00:05:28.980 --> 00:05:31.220 pretty remarkable. Yeah, the sources list these 00:05:31.220 --> 00:05:35.180 enormous, almost unbelievable margins for Democrats 00:05:35.180 --> 00:05:38.399 or, you know, nonpartisans who lean blue. Like 00:05:38.399 --> 00:05:42.740 78 .9 points in Atlanta, 75 points in Pittsburgh. 00:05:42.920 --> 00:05:45.060 It's wild. And what's fascinating there, the 00:05:45.060 --> 00:05:47.579 sort of synthetic takeaway, is that these huge 00:05:47.579 --> 00:05:50.519 margins show that really intensely organized 00:05:50.519 --> 00:05:53.319 local progressive efforts can get results that 00:05:53.319 --> 00:05:55.439 you rarely see in national politics. So these 00:05:55.439 --> 00:05:57.899 aren't just local races disconnected from everything 00:05:57.899 --> 00:05:59.379 else. Not at all. They're almost like a proof 00:05:59.379 --> 00:06:02.339 of concept for that hyper local grassroots organizing. 00:06:02.600 --> 00:06:04.680 And it serves as a pretty clear warning shot 00:06:04.680 --> 00:06:07.639 to maybe moderates across the country that the 00:06:07.639 --> 00:06:10.339 progressive base is fired up. OK, shifting focus 00:06:10.339 --> 00:06:12.639 now. New York City, the left made a big statement 00:06:12.639 --> 00:06:15.060 there too, right? Zurn Mom Donnie won the mayoral 00:06:15.060 --> 00:06:17.959 race. Won it comfortably, yeah. Took about 50 00:06:17.959 --> 00:06:22.040 .4 % against a field that... Notably included, 00:06:22.040 --> 00:06:24.259 Andrew Cuomo trying to come back. And the prediction 00:06:24.259 --> 00:06:27.000 is he instantly becomes this major progressive 00:06:27.000 --> 00:06:29.980 standard bearer alongside people like AOC. That's 00:06:29.980 --> 00:06:33.180 the expectation. But it raises this really interesting 00:06:33.180 --> 00:06:36.980 national diagetic. The sources predict Mom Downey 00:06:36.980 --> 00:06:39.399 will immediately become a symbol for the right. 00:06:39.620 --> 00:06:42.180 A target, you mean? Exactly. Targeted in campaigns 00:06:42.180 --> 00:06:44.339 all over the country, whether his actual policies 00:06:44.339 --> 00:06:47.259 affect anyone outside New York or not. It's that 00:06:47.259 --> 00:06:50.040 strategy of sort of, reponizing high profile 00:06:50.040 --> 00:06:52.480 figures to motivate the opposition everywhere 00:06:52.480 --> 00:06:54.800 else. Interesting. OK, but to see the real power 00:06:54.800 --> 00:06:57.699 of the, let's call it the anti -Trump vote. You 00:06:57.699 --> 00:06:59.740 have to look west, right? California, proposition 00:06:59.740 --> 00:07:02.800 50. Yeah, 3 ,000 miles west. Prop 50 passed in 00:07:02.800 --> 00:07:07.259 a landslide, 63 .8 % to 36 .2%. Huge win. And 00:07:07.259 --> 00:07:09.600 Prop 50, that's the one designed to let California 00:07:09.600 --> 00:07:11.970 gerrymander its districts. potentially pick up 00:07:11.970 --> 00:07:13.850 more Democratic seats in Congress. That's the 00:07:13.850 --> 00:07:15.649 mechanism. Yes. But the motivation behind the 00:07:15.649 --> 00:07:17.629 vote, that's the key insight here. They did exit 00:07:17.629 --> 00:07:19.829 polling of people who voted yes on 50. What do 00:07:19.829 --> 00:07:21.829 they find? Seventy five percent said they voted 00:07:21.829 --> 00:07:25.029 yes specifically to oppose Donald Trump and 70 00:07:25.029 --> 00:07:27.170 percent said they voted yes to oppose national 00:07:27.170 --> 00:07:30.009 Republicans. Wow. So it wasn't really about the 00:07:30.009 --> 00:07:32.110 specifics of the proposition itself for most 00:07:32.110 --> 00:07:34.769 voters. It seems not. I mean, the takeaway is 00:07:34.769 --> 00:07:37.470 pretty clear. This overwhelming win is seen as 00:07:37.470 --> 00:07:40.329 proof of concept for figures like Governor Newsom. 00:07:40.430 --> 00:07:44.009 who backed it, and definitely a significant poke 00:07:44.009 --> 00:07:46.810 in the eye for Donald Trump. It was a win fueled 00:07:46.810 --> 00:07:48.970 almost entirely by that anti -Trump feeling. 00:07:49.269 --> 00:07:51.629 That's powerful stuff. And when we look at the 00:07:51.629 --> 00:07:53.589 other ballot propositions you highlighted, we 00:07:53.589 --> 00:07:56.670 see these really clear ideological splits happening 00:07:56.670 --> 00:07:59.069 at the same time, right? Absolutely. You look 00:07:59.069 --> 00:08:01.110 at Maine, for instance. They voted not to make 00:08:01.110 --> 00:08:05.629 voting harder, passed 63 .9 % to 36 .1%, and 00:08:05.629 --> 00:08:07.889 they passed a measure giving judges power to 00:08:07.889 --> 00:08:09.939 take guns away from dangerous individuals. pretty 00:08:09.939 --> 00:08:12.279 liberal outcome. OK. But then contrast that with 00:08:12.279 --> 00:08:14.680 Texas. Totally different story. Texas propositions 00:08:14.680 --> 00:08:16.939 made it harder to grant bail and gave carrots 00:08:16.939 --> 00:08:19.579 significantly more power over like curriculum 00:08:19.579 --> 00:08:22.160 decisions and child upbringing stuff. Yeah. Very 00:08:22.160 --> 00:08:24.019 conservative priorities winning out at the state 00:08:24.019 --> 00:08:26.680 level there. And Colorado. Colorado voted to 00:08:26.680 --> 00:08:28.860 keep free school lunches and they decided to 00:08:28.860 --> 00:08:31.339 fund it by raising taxes on incomes over three 00:08:31.339 --> 00:08:33.919 hundred thousand dollars. So again you see the 00:08:33.919 --> 00:08:36.639 electorate is highly mobilized but achieving 00:08:36.639 --> 00:08:39.320 results kind of all across the ideological spectrum, 00:08:39.320 --> 00:08:41.720 depending on the state. So the elections show 00:08:41.720 --> 00:08:44.960 this undeniable momentum, clearly. But the question 00:08:44.960 --> 00:08:48.679 remains, can that momentum travel 3000 miles 00:08:48.679 --> 00:08:52.159 to D .C. and break this historic deadlock? That 00:08:52.159 --> 00:08:53.840 really is the central issue, isn't it? Because 00:08:53.840 --> 00:08:55.860 by the time you, the listener, are hearing this 00:08:55.860 --> 00:08:57.580 deep dive, the government shutdown will have 00:08:57.580 --> 00:08:59.360 officially broken the record. We're sitting at 00:08:59.360 --> 00:09:01.960 36 days and counting. It's a deeply concerning 00:09:01.960 --> 00:09:04.620 benchmark. And the sources point out Donald Trump 00:09:04.620 --> 00:09:06.820 has now been president during both of the two 00:09:06.820 --> 00:09:08.860 longest shutdowns in American history. That's 00:09:08.860 --> 00:09:10.659 a fact. And here's where those two narratives, 00:09:10.799 --> 00:09:13.259 the blue momentum and the D .C. deadlock, really 00:09:13.259 --> 00:09:15.820 collide. That strong election performance, it's 00:09:15.820 --> 00:09:18.019 likely to stiffen the resolve of Democrats in 00:09:18.019 --> 00:09:20.100 Congress who might have been wavering. Makes 00:09:20.100 --> 00:09:22.470 sense. Give them more spine, maybe. While at 00:09:22.470 --> 00:09:25.970 the same time, those losses in NJ and VA, they 00:09:25.970 --> 00:09:28.470 have to make at least some Republicans nervous 00:09:28.470 --> 00:09:30.730 about the political cost of this whole crisis 00:09:30.730 --> 00:09:33.230 dragging on. So what's the actual fight about 00:09:33.230 --> 00:09:35.990 at its core? The sources mention rescissions 00:09:35.990 --> 00:09:38.710 and Obamacare subsidies. Right. The core fight 00:09:38.710 --> 00:09:40.830 centers on those two things. And maybe we should 00:09:40.830 --> 00:09:44.029 clarify rescissions for the listener. It's basically 00:09:44.029 --> 00:09:47.230 when the executive branch tries to cancel spending 00:09:47.230 --> 00:09:50.230 that Congress already approved. OK. clawing back 00:09:50.230 --> 00:09:53.149 money. Exactly. And critics see this as giving 00:09:53.149 --> 00:09:55.190 the president and the Office of Management and 00:09:55.190 --> 00:09:58.009 Budget way too much power, essentially shifting 00:09:58.009 --> 00:10:00.590 budget control away from Congress. And then there 00:10:00.590 --> 00:10:03.309 are the expiring Obamacare subsidies, which is 00:10:03.309 --> 00:10:06.210 a huge issue for millions of people. Right. So 00:10:06.210 --> 00:10:08.049 we looked at that readership survey you did a 00:10:08.049 --> 00:10:10.070 few weeks back, and the collective wisdom was 00:10:10.070 --> 00:10:12.549 pretty strong, wasn't it? It really was. 86 .2 00:10:12.549 --> 00:10:14.730 % of readers correctly guessed the shutdown would 00:10:14.730 --> 00:10:16.789 break the record. They seemed to know how Congress 00:10:16.789 --> 00:10:21.200 works or maybe fails to work. Ah, yeah. Pessimism 00:10:21.200 --> 00:10:25.259 or realism? A bit of both, perhaps. The average 00:10:25.259 --> 00:10:27.559 prediction for when it would end was 43 days, 00:10:27.700 --> 00:10:30.080 so readers expected it to drag on until about 00:10:30.080 --> 00:10:32.059 December 1st. But the theories on what would 00:10:32.059 --> 00:10:34.259 actually break the stalemate, those were really 00:10:34.259 --> 00:10:36.259 different, right? Oh yeah, starkly different 00:10:36.259 --> 00:10:39.320 camps. The arguments for it ending soon were 00:10:39.320 --> 00:10:41.879 mostly rooted in political pain and self -preservation. 00:10:42.120 --> 00:10:44.379 Like what specifically? Readers thought Republicans 00:10:44.379 --> 00:10:46.600 might just cave after those election losses. 00:10:47.139 --> 00:10:50.120 Or maybe once the public really started feeling 00:10:50.120 --> 00:10:52.960 the pain directly through specific high profile 00:10:52.960 --> 00:10:55.639 things. Like messing with Thanksgiving travel, 00:10:55.639 --> 00:10:58.299 that was a big one people mentioned. Or disrupting 00:10:58.299 --> 00:11:01.259 Black Friday sales. Or just the direct financial 00:11:01.259 --> 00:11:04.240 hit when those Obamacare premium increases suddenly 00:11:04.240 --> 00:11:06.500 land in people's bank accounts. Things people 00:11:06.500 --> 00:11:09.940 notice immediately. OK, so pressure points. What 00:11:09.940 --> 00:11:12.279 about the theories for it last? a long time. 00:11:12.700 --> 00:11:15.480 Those arguments were much more focused on, like, 00:11:15.740 --> 00:11:18.080 institutional strategy and maybe stubbornness. 00:11:18.600 --> 00:11:20.899 Some argued that the rescissions issue itself 00:11:20.899 --> 00:11:24.100 is absolutely central to the plan from OMB Director 00:11:24.100 --> 00:11:26.559 Russell Vaught. The idea being Trump uses that 00:11:26.559 --> 00:11:29.820 to avoid looking like he lost. Exactly. To negate 00:11:29.820 --> 00:11:32.399 any perception that the Democrats won whatever 00:11:32.399 --> 00:11:34.620 compromise eventually happens. And what else? 00:11:34.980 --> 00:11:37.139 Any other breaking points mentioned? Yeah, a 00:11:37.139 --> 00:11:39.700 really potent one predicted was the moment troops 00:11:39.700 --> 00:11:43.120 stopped getting paid. That would create massive 00:11:43.120 --> 00:11:46.100 coordinated pressure from military families calling 00:11:46.100 --> 00:11:48.840 their representatives. That could be huge. You'd 00:11:48.840 --> 00:11:51.019 think so. And then there was a darker prediction 00:11:51.019 --> 00:11:53.919 from some readers basically saying it won't end 00:11:53.919 --> 00:11:56.899 until Trump is actually out of office. That he 00:11:56.899 --> 00:11:59.500 seems to prefer governing by executive order 00:11:59.500 --> 00:12:02.820 and threats rather than through actual cooperation 00:12:02.820 --> 00:12:05.320 with Congress. Grim. And we have to bring this 00:12:05.320 --> 00:12:08.200 back down to the political theory. to the human 00:12:08.200 --> 00:12:10.419 cost, right? Because people are dealing with 00:12:10.419 --> 00:12:12.820 this right now. We absolutely must. The sources 00:12:12.820 --> 00:12:15.139 you provided include reports from readers highlighting 00:12:15.139 --> 00:12:17.840 those costs. Clear signs, they say, of the economy 00:12:17.840 --> 00:12:19.700 potentially tipping towards recession because 00:12:19.700 --> 00:12:21.860 of this uncertainty. And specific stories, too. 00:12:22.000 --> 00:12:23.980 Yeah. One person shared a story about someone 00:12:23.980 --> 00:12:26.659 they know waiting for a federal pension to process. 00:12:26.879 --> 00:12:29.120 Just waiting. Yeah. And because the government 00:12:29.120 --> 00:12:31.519 process is totally frozen, that person is now 00:12:31.519 --> 00:12:34.460 homeless. God, that's awful. This is way more 00:12:34.460 --> 00:12:36.759 than just political theater. It absolutely is. 00:12:36.960 --> 00:12:39.799 We saw accounts of federal employees already 00:12:39.799 --> 00:12:41.759 looking for new jobs because they can't take 00:12:41.759 --> 00:12:45.120 the instability. Core IT systems are failing. 00:12:45.320 --> 00:12:48.039 Failing how? Things like mistaken terminations 00:12:48.039 --> 00:12:50.740 happening because the system glitched, or essential 00:12:50.740 --> 00:12:53.059 workers losing all their records training records, 00:12:53.580 --> 00:12:55.759 sick leave because the IT people who could fix 00:12:55.759 --> 00:12:59.019 the databases are furloughed. It's just... institutional 00:12:59.019 --> 00:13:01.799 decay happening in real time. Wow. And what's 00:13:01.799 --> 00:13:04.120 really fascinating here is the consensus that 00:13:04.120 --> 00:13:06.759 seemed to emerge among the readers you surveyed, 00:13:06.799 --> 00:13:09.100 a feeling that the underlying system is flawed, 00:13:09.360 --> 00:13:11.299 no matter who's in charge at the moment. Meaning 00:13:11.299 --> 00:13:13.940 the budget process itself. Yeah, strong criticism 00:13:13.940 --> 00:13:16.039 of the fundamental way we do budgets, where they 00:13:16.039 --> 00:13:18.860 just sort of expire instead of, say, continuing 00:13:18.860 --> 00:13:22.019 monthly by default unless Congress actively changes 00:13:22.019 --> 00:13:24.860 something. That structure is what enables the 00:13:24.860 --> 00:13:26.580 shutdowns as a political weapon in the first 00:13:26.580 --> 00:13:29.360 place, isn't it? Yeah. It absolutely is. And 00:13:29.360 --> 00:13:31.580 there were these deep concerns that the tools 00:13:31.580 --> 00:13:34.980 being used now, shutdowns, the filibuster, they're 00:13:34.980 --> 00:13:38.159 actively eroding public trust in Congress itself. 00:13:38.620 --> 00:13:40.879 The very body that's supposed to be the most 00:13:40.879 --> 00:13:43.200 democratic, the most responsive to the people. 00:13:43.299 --> 00:13:45.399 That erosion of trust feels really dangerous 00:13:45.399 --> 00:13:48.379 long term. It does. And one reader who lives 00:13:48.379 --> 00:13:51.879 in Germany offered this incredibly thought -provoking 00:13:51.879 --> 00:13:54.960 historical warning. It really drives home how 00:13:54.960 --> 00:13:56.919 severe legislative deadlock can become. What 00:13:56.919 --> 00:13:59.399 was the warning? Their grandfather observed how 00:13:59.399 --> 00:14:02.340 the German parliament back in the 1930s basically 00:14:02.340 --> 00:14:04.440 squandered its own reputation through what he 00:14:04.440 --> 00:14:07.639 called self -imposed blockades, just constant 00:14:07.639 --> 00:14:10.480 infighting and paralysis. OK. and the consequence. 00:14:10.779 --> 00:14:12.659 That loss of public confidence, that feeling 00:14:12.659 --> 00:14:14.700 that Parliament couldn't get anything done, it 00:14:14.700 --> 00:14:16.639 allowed Hitler to come along and impress people 00:14:16.639 --> 00:14:19.519 simply by taking action, by doing things, bringing 00:14:19.519 --> 00:14:21.639 about change. Even if that change turned out 00:14:21.639 --> 00:14:24.019 to be utterly destructive, the public was just 00:14:24.019 --> 00:14:25.620 desperate for someone to break the gridlock. 00:14:25.840 --> 00:14:29.419 That is a really sobering comparison. It underscores 00:14:29.419 --> 00:14:32.899 the danger when legislative bodies seem incapable 00:14:32.899 --> 00:14:35.440 of functioning. It really does. Now, in terms 00:14:35.440 --> 00:14:37.820 of the outcome of this current shutdown, The 00:14:37.820 --> 00:14:39.639 reader predictions for the Democrats were pretty 00:14:39.639 --> 00:14:43.580 realistic, I thought. Almost half, 48 .5%, predicted 00:14:43.580 --> 00:14:46.940 they'd get... maybe one major concession, like 00:14:46.940 --> 00:14:49.139 extending those ACA subsidies. But not a total 00:14:49.139 --> 00:14:51.580 victory. No, and only 11 % thought they'd get 00:14:51.580 --> 00:14:54.399 absolutely nothing. So the challenge for Democrats 00:14:54.399 --> 00:14:56.440 is showing they have the endurance to actually 00:14:56.440 --> 00:14:59.120 fight for that one concession. OK, so let's synthesize. 00:14:59.620 --> 00:15:02.500 We've really dug into two major forces playing 00:15:02.500 --> 00:15:05.879 out over the last few weeks. First, there's this 00:15:05.879 --> 00:15:08.659 undeniable poll defying momentum for Democrats 00:15:08.659 --> 00:15:11.659 in key state and local races, often fueled by 00:15:11.659 --> 00:15:14.490 that intense anti -Trump feeling we saw. especially 00:15:14.490 --> 00:15:17.250 with Prop 50. Right. And at the exact same time, 00:15:17.429 --> 00:15:19.490 concurrently, we have this escalating record 00:15:19.490 --> 00:15:21.769 -setting government shutdown. And it seems rooted 00:15:21.769 --> 00:15:24.289 in a really deep institutional breakdown where 00:15:24.289 --> 00:15:26.649 trust, compromise, even basic government functions 00:15:26.649 --> 00:15:29.269 are just visibly eroding day by day. The election 00:15:29.269 --> 00:15:31.490 results, the mandate they represent, that's very 00:15:31.490 --> 00:15:34.570 real. Tangible wins. Definitely real. But here's 00:15:34.570 --> 00:15:36.289 the final question, the one for you, the listener, 00:15:36.429 --> 00:15:39.629 to really consider and explore on your own. Can 00:15:39.629 --> 00:15:42.860 that state -level popular mandate? those big 00:15:42.860 --> 00:15:46.419 wins in Virginia and New Jersey, can they actually 00:15:46.419 --> 00:15:49.539 challenge the kind of institutional inertia and 00:15:49.539 --> 00:15:52.100 legislative hostility that just defines Washington, 00:15:52.159 --> 00:15:55.500 D .C. today? Or will those victories ultimately 00:15:55.500 --> 00:15:57.799 just get overshadowed by the continuing deadlock? 00:15:57.879 --> 00:16:00.019 Will the shutdown swamp everything else? That's 00:16:00.019 --> 00:16:01.759 the tension. That's what we'll be watching unfold. 00:16:01.860 --> 00:16:03.799 And it's a tension that will absolutely define 00:16:03.799 --> 00:16:05.659 the weeks ahead. Thank you for joining us for 00:16:05.659 --> 00:16:07.240 this deep dive into your source material.