WEBVTT

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Welcome back to The Deep Dive. Today we're sort

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of pulling focus on three big political threads.

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Right. We've got major figures legacy, some really

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high stakes legal fights, and then this whole

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wave of local ballot initiatives. Yeah, it's

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a lot to connect. Our mission here is basically

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to trace how these things link up. You know,

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how history shapes today's local votes. This

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is your shortcut to getting up to speed. Exactly.

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We're drawing lines between someone who really

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changed the VP role, the kind of legal battles

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we're seeing now between prosecutors and, well,

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partisan attacks, and then how all that national

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heat is turning local propositions into something

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bigger. It's strategy, top to bottom. OK, so

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let's dive in with former Vice President Dick

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Cheney. He passed away at 84. And while the sources

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really highlight his life as just an amazing

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story of medical resilience. Oh, definitely.

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I mean, first heart attack back in 1978. Almost

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50 years ago. Yeah. And then multiple major attacks,

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stents, valve repairs. culminating in that heart

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transplant in 2012. And doctors thought he might

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get another 10 years. Right. And he got 12. It's

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really a testament to modern medicine, you know?

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Absolutely. But beyond the medical side, it's

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the political power debate that's really interesting.

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Some sources are calling him America's most powerful

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modern vice president. That's a huge claim. And

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it suggests, well, a level of power we haven't

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quite seen replicated. So where does that idea

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come from, that he was almost a de facto president?

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It really centers on those early George W. Bush

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years. Cheney brought all this experience, chief

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of staff, defense secretary, and basically acted

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like a co -president. Using that institutional

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knowledge. Exactly. But here's the interesting

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contrast the sources make. He got this immense

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power early on, but then he kind of got sidelined

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in Bush's second term, which is different from

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other really influential VPs, think Mondale,

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Gore, even Biden. They kept their influence without

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that same dramatic fall. So his power was huge,

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but maybe unstable. Volatile, yeah. That seems

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to be the key takeaway. And the sources actually

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link him to Mitch McConnell here. How so? Arguing

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that both of them unleashed political forces

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he ultimately could not control. Okay, explain

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that. What forces? It's about the long -term

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effects of short -term tactics, specifically

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turning elections into these culture war referendums.

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The sources draw a really direct line here. It's

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not far, they argue, from basing a 2004 campaign

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on opposing gay marriage to a 2024 campaign focused

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on opposing trans girls in high school sports.

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It's that same playbook. And that kind of chaos

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had a cost, even for his own family. Absolutely.

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It arguably consumed his daughter, Liz G. Cheney's

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political career in the end, that backlash. Wow.

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OK, before we move on, there's a neat bit of

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historical trivia. His passing ended the third

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time in US history. We had seven living VPs.

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Oh, really? Who was in that group? Let's see.

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Quail, Gore, Cheney himself, Biden, Pence, Harris,

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and JD Vance. Huh. Quite a list. OK, so we see

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Cheney's long shadow, these forces he helped

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unleash. Now let's shift to the ground level.

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How are these dynamics playing out in local contests

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right now? Let's look at the propositions. Right.

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There are about 30 propositions on ballots across

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the country, which is slightly below the midterm

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average, interestingly. But wine is getting a

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lot of national attention. California's Prop

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50. Yeah, this one's really being framed as Governor

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Gavin Newsom's, quote, first national campaign.

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Why national? It's a state prop. Because the

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fundraising is national. The messaging is national.

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And look at the advertising shift. It started

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as this broad defend democracy message. OK. Now

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it's much more aggressive, very negative, focused

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directly on attacking Donald Trump. And he's

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got some big names behind it. Oh, yeah. An all

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-star team of lefties, as one source put it.

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You've got Tom Steyer, Obama, Senators Warren.

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and Sanders, Pelosi, AOC. It's a big push. So

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the stakes for Newsom personally are pretty high

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then. Massive. Absolutely massive. If this loses,

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it's disastrous for his national image. If it

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wins narrowly, well, they'll spin it as a win,

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sure. But only a big win gives him that real

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momentum he needs to look like a serious national

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player. Got it. OK, let's jump across the country

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to Maine. Question one there, what's that about?

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This one's a conservative push to restrict absentee

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voting. And the rules are pretty specific. Yeah,

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I saw that. No requesting ballots by phone. Right.

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And the big one, it gets rid of permanent absentee

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status. So every election, you'd have to go in

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person to the elections office to request your

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absentee ballot. Wow. That seems like a barrier

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for some people. For sure. The sources highlight

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a specific example. Sarah Trites, she's 60, has

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vision problems, lives near her polling place,

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but there's no public transit. So mail -in is

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her only real option. Exactly. And this initiative

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would make that much, much harder for people

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like her. And we know who's backing this. Yep.

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Funding traces back to a Republican activist,

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Alex Titcombe, who in turn is backed by Leonard

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Leo. Of the Federalist Society, okay? Maine also

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has question two, which is about gun safety.

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Allowing courts to temporarily remove guns from

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someone deemed a threat. Seems straightforward,

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but the governor opposes it. Yeah, Governor Janet

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Mills argues the police already have enough authority

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to act. She thinks shifting this responsibility

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to the courts would actually slow things down.

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Huh. Making it more dangerous. That's her argument,

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yeah. Increases public danger by adding delay.

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Interesting. Okay, elsewhere. Colorado's dealing

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with school meals funding. Yeah, they have this

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healthy school meals for all program, but there's

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a $50 million shortfall. Ouch. So the vote is?

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Whether to cover that gap by slightly reducing

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tax deductions for people earning over $300 ,000

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a year. It's not a new tax, just adjusting deductions.

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OK. And then there's minimum wage popping up

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again. Olympia, Washington this time. Right.

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They're voting on raising it to $20 an hour.

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Seattle's already at $20 .76. And the national

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angle here is? Well, if these cities can implement

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such high minimum wages without unemployment

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skyrocketing, then it could really fuel the argument

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for raising the federal minimum wage from its

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current $7 .25. Could be a big Democratic issue

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for 2026. Makes sense. Yeah. OK, last one in

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this section. Bucks County, Pennsylvania, PA01.

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Why is this one so important? Because Bucks County

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is seen as the bellwether. It's a microcosm of

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suburban America. Crucial for the 2026 House

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race there between Fitzpatrick, the Republican

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incumbent, and Harvey the Democrat. And there's

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some serious history at stake in the local races

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too. Get this. Democrats are seriously competing

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for the district attorney and sheriff roles.

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Offices Republicans have held for over 150 years.

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Wait, 150 years? For both? Well, the Sheriff's

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Office, the source says Republicans have held

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it since 1682. 1682. That can't be right. Let

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me double check that. OK, yeah, the office dates

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back that far. But Republican control is only

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150 years or so. Yeah. Still, that's incredible

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institutional history. Right. That kind of longevity

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is just staggering. It definitely raises the

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stakes. Yeah. The sources use that Benjamin Franklin

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analogy about the sun painting at the Constitutional

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Convention. Ah, the rising, resetting sun. Exactly.

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Is this a rising sun for Democrats in the suburbs,

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or is the Republican Institutional hold the setting

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sun finally fading. Bucks County is seen as that

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test case. Hashtag take three. High stakes, legal

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maneuvering and counter offense. That's a really

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good way to frame it actually. From local history

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to this. Well, this institutional warfare we're

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seeing in D .C. Let's talk about the Jack Smith

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standoff. Right. House Republicans, Jim Jordan

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leading the charge, demanding Smith testify behind

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closed doors. And Smith's response is basically,

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OK, but not like that. Yeah. He countered. He

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said he'd appear, but only if it's public. Right.

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And he wants access to all his files, including

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that volume two of his report they haven't released.

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Exactly. So why would a public hearing be better

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for him? Seems risky. Well, the sources suggest

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it's his best shot to control the narrative.

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It's the closest he might get to, quote, try

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Trump in absentia in the court of public opinion.

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Oh, OK. So he can lay out the evidence directly.

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Yeah. Think about it. The classified documents,

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the Mar -a -Lago security tape showing boxes

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being moved, that whole flooded room incident.

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And he gets to present his side. And push back

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against the attacks he's facing. Precisely. Especially

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since some Senate Republican Schmidt, grassly,

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are trying to undermine him, like digging up

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old news about call log subpoenas. Right, trying

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to paint it as wiretapping. Even though the logs

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were known about for ages and didn't contain

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actual conversations, just numbers called, it

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feels like a smear tactic, using old information.

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Definitely seems that way. And speaking of pushback,

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look at what two of Smith's fired prosecutors

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are doing. Molly Gaston and J .P. Cooney. What

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are they up to? They're starting their own firm

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specifically to help state and local governments

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investigate corruption. Interesting. Why now?

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Because the sources argue the main DOJ unit for

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this, the public integrity section, has been

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basically gutted. It's been hollowed out. So

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they're stepping in to fill that gap at the state

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and local level. Exactly. Using their expertise

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where it's needed. Since the federal capacity

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is diminished, it's a direct counteraction. We're

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seeing a similar dynamic, maybe, with the attempt

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to go after New York AG Letitia James over that

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second home mortgage in Virginia. Yeah, the Perrone

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property case. The accusation was mortgage fraud

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getting a lower rate for a secondary residence,

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but really using it as an investment property.

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OK, break that down. What's the core issue? It's

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about the interest rate difference. You typically

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get a slightly better rate if you declare a property

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a secondary home, meaning you live there sometimes,

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versus an investment property you just rent out.

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And they accused her of lying to get that better

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rate. Right. Claiming she submitted fraud to

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save. Get this. less than $20 ,000 over the life

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of the loan. Doesn't sound like a massive conspiracy.

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And then evidence came out. Yes, Politico got

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hold of a document, part of the mortgage agreement

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itself, that explicitly allowed her to have exclusive

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control over the occupancy, including short -term

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rentals. So she was allowed to rent it out? Pretty

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much. The only restriction seems to have been

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using a third -party management firm to handle

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the rentals. Okay, so for the prosecution to

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actually prove fraud here. Yeah. What would they

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need? It's a really steep climb. First, they'd

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have to prove she did use a forbidden management

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firm. Second, prove she knew she was breaking

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that specific rule, which is tough with mountains

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of mortgage paperwork. Right. Intent is hard

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to prove. And third, argue that this relatively

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minor alleged infraction, saving maybe 20 grand,

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warrants severe punishment. It just, it looks

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weak. So the sources basically suggest this is

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more political theater. Yeah, the phrase used

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is performing for an audience of one. Suggesting

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it's more about scoring political points than

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a solid legal case, it really seems to fall apart

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under scrutiny. Okay, let's shift back to pure

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electoral strategy. The move by Representative

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Chewy Garcia in Chicago. That's a fascinating

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example of modern political maneuvering. Oh,

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absolutely. He's 69, been in politics for ages,

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nearly 40 years. He'd already filed to run again.

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And then suddenly retires. Suddenly retires.

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But it's the timing that's key. How so? He announced

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he was withdrawing just one hour before the official

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deadline for candidates to declare. Wow. That's

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cutting it close. Deliberately close. Because

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his chief of staff, Patty Garcia, was ready and

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waiting. She filed immediately. Ah. So it effectively

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cleared the path for her. Almost certainly spared

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her a contested primary in that district, which

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is heavily Democratic D plus 17. Meaning the

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Democratic primary winner is virtually guaranteed

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to win the seat. Exactly. So it keeps the seat

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within his preferred political circle, avoids

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a messy primary fight. Very calculated. That

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kind of inside baseball calculation, it connects

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to a broader critique of democratic strategy

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that comes up in the source material, doesn't

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it? Particularly looking at the NYC mayoral race.

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It does. There's a sharp critique reported. It

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contrasts someone like Zawan Mamdani, who focuses

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on, you know, actual neighborhood campaigning,

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talking about what people need. Boots on the

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ground. With opponents who the source argues

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rely more on stoking fears and just running as

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not Trump. So the argument is that some Democrats

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aren't really making their case. The argument

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presented is that some high level Democrats have

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maybe over focused on chasing quote rural white

00:12:39.730 --> 00:12:42.610
or white working class voters. OK. And in doing

00:12:42.610 --> 00:12:44.830
so, they kind of take voters of color for granted,

00:12:45.169 --> 00:12:47.750
treating them like votes they need and earn simply

00:12:47.750 --> 00:12:50.110
because the Republican alternative is seen as

00:12:50.110 --> 00:12:52.490
worse. And the source basically says that's not

00:12:52.490 --> 00:12:54.679
a sustainable strategy. Yeah, the quote is something

00:12:54.679 --> 00:12:57.620
like, we will oppress slightly fewer people isn't

00:12:57.620 --> 00:13:00.639
exactly a winning message. It's a call for more

00:13:00.639 --> 00:13:04.379
proactive engagement. And that gap between messaging

00:13:04.379 --> 00:13:06.820
and maybe what voters are actually experiencing

00:13:06.820 --> 00:13:10.029
ties into that. weird crime paradox in New York

00:13:10.029 --> 00:13:12.789
City. It really does. You have NYPD statistics

00:13:12.789 --> 00:13:15.889
showing crime is way down, like 50 -year lows.

00:13:15.970 --> 00:13:18.409
Right. Statistically safer. But political candidates

00:13:18.409 --> 00:13:21.730
are still hammering on public safety, which suggests,

00:13:21.929 --> 00:13:24.169
according to the source, that maybe people's

00:13:24.169 --> 00:13:26.570
feeling of being unsafe isn't always about crime

00:13:26.570 --> 00:13:29.230
rates. But maybe conflated with other visible

00:13:29.230 --> 00:13:31.809
issues. Like seeing more homeless people, perhaps.

00:13:31.850 --> 00:13:34.309
It points to a real disconnect between the data,

00:13:34.730 --> 00:13:37.029
the lived experience, and the political narratives

00:13:37.029 --> 00:13:40.950
being hashtag tag outro wow we've covered a huge

00:13:40.950 --> 00:13:44.090
amount today from you know the deep legacy of

00:13:44.090 --> 00:13:47.360
someone like Chaney to the really intense institutional

00:13:47.360 --> 00:13:49.500
fights around Jack Smith and Letitia James. Right,

00:13:49.519 --> 00:13:51.559
that high -level warfare. All the way down to

00:13:51.559 --> 00:13:54.259
these critical local battles. Prop 15, California,

00:13:54.480 --> 00:13:56.539
Bucks County, the grassroots stuff. Yeah, and

00:13:56.539 --> 00:13:58.440
if you try to tie it all together, what you see

00:13:58.440 --> 00:14:01.440
in the sources is this real tension. On one hand,

00:14:01.440 --> 00:14:03.519
you've got these long -term forces, like the

00:14:03.519 --> 00:14:05.779
kind Cheney unleashed. On the other, you have

00:14:05.779 --> 00:14:09.539
these very immediate, specific decisions on ballots

00:14:09.539 --> 00:14:11.360
right now. So here's the final thought we want

00:14:11.360 --> 00:14:12.899
to leave you with, something to chew on from

00:14:12.899 --> 00:14:15.216
all this material. What happens when national...

00:14:15.210 --> 00:14:18.710
figures like Newsome with Prop 50 start using

00:14:18.710 --> 00:14:22.389
those really intense, polarized, almost culture

00:14:22.389 --> 00:14:25.090
war style messages that used to be mainly for

00:14:25.090 --> 00:14:27.169
local fights. Does that nationalize everything?

00:14:27.490 --> 00:14:30.009
Does it basically accelerate the very divisiveness,

00:14:30.230 --> 00:14:32.610
the chaos that figures like Cheney help start?

00:14:32.929 --> 00:14:35.009
Does it make every local vote feel like some

00:14:35.009 --> 00:14:37.149
kind of national emergency? Yeah. That's the

00:14:37.149 --> 00:14:37.929
question to consider.
