WEBVTT 00:00:00.000 --> 00:00:03.520 Welcome back to the deep dive. So tomorrow is 00:00:03.520 --> 00:00:07.219 a major election day, but our focus today isn't 00:00:07.219 --> 00:00:09.759 really on those obvious top of the ticket races 00:00:09.759 --> 00:00:11.740 you're hearing about everywhere. No, it's not 00:00:11.740 --> 00:00:13.960 at all. We're actually looking at these, you 00:00:13.960 --> 00:00:17.079 know, scattered state, local institutional battles, 00:00:17.219 --> 00:00:19.480 the ones that, well, they rarely grab the national 00:00:19.480 --> 00:00:21.239 headlines. Right. But we're treating them as 00:00:21.239 --> 00:00:23.899 a series of, let's say, seismic indicators. They're 00:00:23.899 --> 00:00:26.519 not just about tomorrow. They're kind of a forecast 00:00:26.519 --> 00:00:30.390 for 2026, maybe even 2028. That's exactly the 00:00:30.390 --> 00:00:32.429 mission today. Look, we know you follow the big 00:00:32.429 --> 00:00:36.539 picture, but the real... volatility in American 00:00:36.539 --> 00:00:38.479 governance right now, it's revealed when we start 00:00:38.479 --> 00:00:40.560 connecting the dots. Dots between things that 00:00:40.560 --> 00:00:42.280 seem totally unrelated. Totally unrelated. I 00:00:42.280 --> 00:00:44.799 mean, we're analyzing everything from judicial 00:00:44.799 --> 00:00:49.420 retention elections over in Pennsylvania to the 00:00:49.420 --> 00:00:51.859 sudden SNAP benefit disruption hitting, what, 00:00:52.240 --> 00:00:55.159 42 million people? And even digging into why 00:00:55.159 --> 00:00:57.539 someone apparently paid Jeffrey Epstein $158 00:00:57.539 --> 00:01:00.579 million fee for, quote, tax planning. OK, so 00:01:00.579 --> 00:01:03.000 our deep dive today is all about pulling these 00:01:03.000 --> 00:01:05.769 signals together. We want to understand the polarization, 00:01:06.510 --> 00:01:09.609 what these sort of early moves mean for the national 00:01:09.609 --> 00:01:13.049 political landscape. Let's start with tomorrow's 00:01:13.049 --> 00:01:16.150 elections as these national barometers. OK. So 00:01:16.150 --> 00:01:18.609 the central question that our sources keep wrestling 00:01:18.609 --> 00:01:21.829 with is this. Are those marginal Trump voters 00:01:21.829 --> 00:01:25.230 actually becoming Republicans? You mean that 00:01:25.230 --> 00:01:28.969 unexpected 2024 coalition? The young black and 00:01:28.969 --> 00:01:32.230 Latino men may be drawn by high prices or his 00:01:32.519 --> 00:01:35.400 quote, tough style. Exactly. Are they transferring 00:01:35.400 --> 00:01:38.060 their loyalty to the generic Republican Party 00:01:38.060 --> 00:01:40.620 brand, or was it just about Trump? And we're 00:01:40.620 --> 00:01:42.379 seeing the best test cases for this in places 00:01:42.379 --> 00:01:44.280 like New Jersey and Virginia, right? Precisely. 00:01:44.659 --> 00:01:47.359 So in New Jersey, you've got Democrat Makey Sherrill. 00:01:47.420 --> 00:01:49.560 She's a former Navy helicopter pilot, pretty 00:01:49.560 --> 00:01:51.579 moderate profile. And she's up against Seattle, 00:01:51.739 --> 00:01:54.900 who's really welcomed this. huge infusion of 00:01:54.900 --> 00:01:56.840 Trump attention, Trump money. Right. And even 00:01:56.840 --> 00:01:58.719 in a blue state like Jersey, Cheryl's only up 00:01:58.719 --> 00:02:01.719 what, 51 % to 43 %? That's surprisingly close. 00:02:01.859 --> 00:02:04.859 It tells you something. And then Virginia. Virginia, 00:02:05.159 --> 00:02:08.219 you have Abigail Spanberger. Again, a moderate 00:02:08.219 --> 00:02:10.580 Democrat, national security background, former 00:02:10.580 --> 00:02:14.039 CIA. She's leading by maybe 10 or 11 points in 00:02:14.039 --> 00:02:16.360 the recent polls against Winsome Earl Sears. 00:02:16.620 --> 00:02:18.659 OK, so what's the takeaway then, if they win 00:02:18.659 --> 00:02:22.090 big? Well, if Democrats get landslides with candidates 00:02:22.090 --> 00:02:25.009 like Spanberger and Sheryl, these moderate women 00:02:25.009 --> 00:02:27.449 with security cred, it kind of suggests the answer 00:02:27.449 --> 00:02:29.949 is no. Meaning the Trump voters aren't automatically 00:02:29.949 --> 00:02:32.750 becoming GOP voters. Exactly. Their loyalty isn't 00:02:32.750 --> 00:02:35.930 transferring to the brand. But if these candidates 00:02:35.930 --> 00:02:39.389 just, you know, squeak by, then maybe we are 00:02:39.389 --> 00:02:42.210 seeing a much broader, more fundamental political 00:02:42.210 --> 00:02:45.080 realignment. That's the uncertainty. OK, let's 00:02:45.080 --> 00:02:47.039 shift gears a bit. Let's look past the candidates 00:02:47.039 --> 00:02:50.379 themselves and focus on these institutional power 00:02:50.379 --> 00:02:53.400 battles hidden inside some state elections. Pennsylvania 00:02:53.400 --> 00:02:55.199 seems like the big one here. Oh, absolutely. 00:02:55.340 --> 00:02:57.319 It's fascinating. You've got three Democratic 00:02:57.319 --> 00:02:59.819 Supreme Court justices, Donahue, Daugherty, and 00:02:59.819 --> 00:03:02.319 Wecht, all up for retention votes. And for folks 00:03:02.319 --> 00:03:04.120 who don't follow state courts that closely, a 00:03:04.120 --> 00:03:06.860 retention vote is just a yes -no on keeping the 00:03:06.860 --> 00:03:09.240 judge right, no opponent. Correct. Simple yes 00:03:09.240 --> 00:03:12.560 -no. But Republicans are pouring serious money 00:03:12.560 --> 00:03:15.400 into trying to get voters to vote no on all three. 00:03:15.639 --> 00:03:19.060 Why? What's the calculation? It's huge. If all 00:03:19.060 --> 00:03:21.599 three get fired, the court flips from a Democratic 00:03:21.599 --> 00:03:25.379 majority to a 2 -2 tie. Governor Shapiro, a Democrat, 00:03:25.460 --> 00:03:27.319 would try to appoint replacements, obviously. 00:03:27.520 --> 00:03:29.520 But the Republican State Senate would block them? 00:03:29.680 --> 00:03:32.080 Almost certainly. They'd likely block appointments 00:03:32.080 --> 00:03:34.740 until the next judicial election cycle in 2027. 00:03:35.180 --> 00:03:37.280 So you essentially paralyze the state's highest 00:03:37.280 --> 00:03:41.219 court. Giving the GOP enormous leverage, especially 00:03:41.219 --> 00:03:44.319 heading towards 2028. Wow. That's the play. It's 00:03:44.319 --> 00:03:47.020 all about institutional control. OK. And while 00:03:47.020 --> 00:03:49.699 Pennsylvania is fighting over its courts, California 00:03:49.699 --> 00:03:51.879 is looking at its congressional map. Proposition 00:03:51.879 --> 00:03:54.740 50. Yeah, Prop 50. It's a constitutional amendment, 00:03:54.919 --> 00:03:56.900 aims to override the Independent Commission's 00:03:56.900 --> 00:03:59.719 map. The goal is pretty clearly to flip about 00:03:59.719 --> 00:04:02.340 five Republican House seats to Democrats. That 00:04:02.340 --> 00:04:06.150 is leading. It is 56 to 43 percent. But interestingly, 00:04:06.449 --> 00:04:08.810 some Democrats are apparently a bit uncomfortable, 00:04:08.810 --> 00:04:11.129 you know, with gerrymandering, even when it helps 00:04:11.129 --> 00:04:13.550 their side. So that might be dampening the support 00:04:13.550 --> 00:04:15.629 slightly. And then there's this weird election 00:04:15.629 --> 00:04:17.589 monitoring thing happening out there, too. Oh, 00:04:17.589 --> 00:04:19.230 yeah. This is really something. So you have Trump 00:04:19.230 --> 00:04:21.769 sending his own election monitors to California. 00:04:21.850 --> 00:04:24.930 OK. And Governor Newsom responds very publicly 00:04:24.930 --> 00:04:27.689 by sending his own state monitors to watch the 00:04:27.689 --> 00:04:30.589 federal ones. And he's even threatening arrests 00:04:30.589 --> 00:04:34.569 if they violate state elections. laws. Wow that 00:04:34.569 --> 00:04:38.050 sounds like a dry run for something bigger like 00:04:38.050 --> 00:04:41.029 2026 maybe. It really feels like it this state 00:04:41.029 --> 00:04:43.730 challenging federal authority over the vote itself 00:04:43.730 --> 00:04:46.870 that's a really dangerous institutional tension 00:04:46.870 --> 00:04:50.230 to watch. Okay so we've seen how these you know 00:04:50.230 --> 00:04:54.029 seemingly low -key local races carry huge institutional 00:04:54.029 --> 00:04:56.850 weight but that kind of paralysis it takes on 00:04:56.850 --> 00:04:59.939 a much more painful dimension when we look at 00:04:59.939 --> 00:05:02.259 Washington right now. The shutdown fallout. Right. 00:05:02.360 --> 00:05:04.740 Over the weekend, two major things converged. 00:05:04.899 --> 00:05:07.680 You had SNFP benefits food stamps rejected for 00:05:07.680 --> 00:05:10.540 42 million people. 42 million. And this happened 00:05:10.540 --> 00:05:13.459 right as the Affordable Care Act. The ACA enrollment 00:05:13.459 --> 00:05:16.439 period opened up. So EBT cards just stopped working. 00:05:16.779 --> 00:05:20.160 Just stopped working. Now, two federal judges. 00:05:20.430 --> 00:05:23.089 Obama appointees actually McConnell in Rhode 00:05:23.089 --> 00:05:26.089 Island and Talwani in Massachusetts. They ruled 00:05:26.089 --> 00:05:28.689 pretty quickly They said the administration must 00:05:28.689 --> 00:05:31.750 use the USDA's contingency fund about five billion 00:05:31.750 --> 00:05:34.649 dollars to pay the benefits Okay, but the administration's 00:05:34.649 --> 00:05:37.269 saying it's not that simple. Yeah, right the 00:05:37.269 --> 00:05:39.430 stated reason is technical difficulties Yeah, 00:05:39.430 --> 00:05:41.600 the official line is the complexity chaining 00:05:41.600 --> 00:05:45.040 software for, you know, 42 million EBT accounts 00:05:45.040 --> 00:05:48.660 across 50 states, multiple private vendors involved. 00:05:49.160 --> 00:05:51.779 It requires really careful programming testing. 00:05:51.980 --> 00:05:54.120 It takes time. That's the argument. But what's 00:05:54.120 --> 00:05:56.000 the political calculation here? Is this timing 00:05:56.000 --> 00:05:59.459 just random? Well, our sources suggest the timing 00:05:59.459 --> 00:06:01.779 itself hitting low income folks right when they're 00:06:01.779 --> 00:06:03.620 being pushed to sign up for government health 00:06:03.620 --> 00:06:06.560 care might be a lucky accident, let's say, for 00:06:06.560 --> 00:06:08.420 Republicans. With the impact. Oh, with the impact. 00:06:08.620 --> 00:06:10.660 The sources say the cruelty is fully intentional. 00:06:10.980 --> 00:06:13.519 Look, the long term plan, especially outlined 00:06:13.519 --> 00:06:17.120 in things like Project 2025, is to slash both 00:06:17.120 --> 00:06:19.959 SNAPI and ACA subsidies pretty drastically. Right. 00:06:20.120 --> 00:06:22.000 And the irony here, which you really have to 00:06:22.000 --> 00:06:24.939 understand, is this sort of urban legend Republicans 00:06:24.939 --> 00:06:27.230 seem to operate under. They think cutting these 00:06:27.230 --> 00:06:30.069 programs mainly hurts, you know, poor black people 00:06:30.069 --> 00:06:32.930 in blue cities. When in reality? In reality, 00:06:33.069 --> 00:06:35.649 the data shows it hits poor white people in rural 00:06:35.649 --> 00:06:38.449 red states, their own base, the hardest. It's 00:06:38.449 --> 00:06:41.050 a fundamental misreading of who relies on these 00:06:41.050 --> 00:06:43.889 programs. OK, so if it's hitting their constituents 00:06:43.889 --> 00:06:47.490 and the crisis is real, why not just pass a quick 00:06:47.490 --> 00:06:50.870 standalone bill to fund SNP? I heard Senator 00:06:50.870 --> 00:06:53.709 Hawley propose one. He did propose a sesente 00:06:53.709 --> 00:06:56.649 only bill, yeah. There's also a Democratic bill 00:06:56.649 --> 00:06:59.649 that includes WIC. But the Republicans aren't 00:06:59.649 --> 00:07:02.310 really pushing Hawley's bill hard at all. Why 00:07:02.310 --> 00:07:04.589 not? What's the holdup? Because the real obstacle, 00:07:04.889 --> 00:07:06.370 according to these sources, isn't really about 00:07:06.370 --> 00:07:08.810 feeding hungry kids right now. It's about institutional 00:07:08.810 --> 00:07:11.269 power in the House. Oh, so. OK, follow this. 00:07:11.629 --> 00:07:15.269 Passing any bill, even a simple SNF P fix, requires 00:07:15.269 --> 00:07:17.709 Speaker Johnson to call the House back into session. 00:07:17.769 --> 00:07:19.930 Right. If he does that, Representative -elect 00:07:19.930 --> 00:07:22.930 Grigalva from Arizona, a Democrat, gets sworn 00:07:22.930 --> 00:07:25.430 in. And Grigalva is the key number. She would 00:07:25.430 --> 00:07:28.870 immediately become the 218th signature on a discharge 00:07:28.870 --> 00:07:31.189 petition. That's the magic number. A discharge 00:07:31.189 --> 00:07:35.110 petition that forces a vote on the floor bypasses 00:07:35.110 --> 00:07:37.970 the speaker. Exactly. And the discharge petition 00:07:37.970 --> 00:07:41.110 currently waiting with 217 signatures is the 00:07:41.110 --> 00:07:45.170 one to force a vote on releasing the full unredacted 00:07:45.170 --> 00:07:48.899 Epstein files. Wait, so the claim is... They're 00:07:48.899 --> 00:07:51.910 holding up food aid. to block a vote on the Eckstein 00:07:51.910 --> 00:07:53.550 file. That's what the sources are suggesting. 00:07:53.709 --> 00:07:56.009 The political calculation being described is, 00:07:56.110 --> 00:07:58.689 essentially, children go hungry in order to protect 00:07:58.689 --> 00:08:02.949 pedophiles. It's a truly unbelievable cost -benefit 00:08:02.949 --> 00:08:05.709 analysis, if true. That's quite a claim. Meanwhile, 00:08:05.910 --> 00:08:07.990 Democrats must be seeing an opening here. Oh, 00:08:07.990 --> 00:08:09.529 absolutely. They're launching what they call 00:08:09.529 --> 00:08:12.230 a nationwide blitz focused on healthcare and 00:08:12.230 --> 00:08:15.189 this crisis. They're using very sophisticated 00:08:15.189 --> 00:08:17.209 micro -targeting, like Google search ads for 00:08:17.209 --> 00:08:19.649 ACA plans. And boots on the ground, too. Yep. 00:08:19.660 --> 00:08:22.600 400 canvassing events, press conferences. They're 00:08:22.600 --> 00:08:24.899 really testing the message. Republicans are causing 00:08:24.899 --> 00:08:27.180 your health care premiums to soar. Republicans 00:08:27.180 --> 00:08:29.920 are responsible for this food insecurity. They're 00:08:29.920 --> 00:08:32.639 trying to make that link stick. OK, let's pivot 00:08:32.639 --> 00:08:35.620 a bit ideologically. Let's talk about socialism. 00:08:36.679 --> 00:08:39.340 When we use that term classically, we usually 00:08:39.340 --> 00:08:41.899 mean government ownership of the means of production, 00:08:41.980 --> 00:08:44.019 right? Yeah, that's the standard definition. 00:08:44.360 --> 00:08:46.679 And you often hear complaints about, you know, 00:08:46.940 --> 00:08:49.059 socialism creeping into America. Maybe someone 00:08:49.059 --> 00:08:52.419 points to, like, that New York City mayoral candidate, 00:08:52.639 --> 00:08:54.759 Mom Donnie. Right, the guy with the plan for 00:08:54.759 --> 00:08:56.860 maybe a city commissioner of groceries running 00:08:56.860 --> 00:08:59.559 a few supermarkets. Exactly. Which frankly is 00:08:59.559 --> 00:09:01.960 peanuts. It's tiny compared to what's actually 00:09:01.960 --> 00:09:03.960 been happening at the federal level, particularly 00:09:03.960 --> 00:09:05.820 under the Trump administration, believe it or 00:09:05.820 --> 00:09:08.120 not. Wait, you're saying the biggest moves towards 00:09:08.120 --> 00:09:10.840 government ownership are federal, not local. 00:09:11.440 --> 00:09:13.659 Under Trump. That's what the evidence suggests. 00:09:14.100 --> 00:09:16.120 Look, the government already effectively secured 00:09:16.120 --> 00:09:18.899 a 10 % stake in Intel through the cheap PSECT 00:09:18.899 --> 00:09:21.340 funding. Okay, I remember that. But now look 00:09:21.340 --> 00:09:23.120 at this new case study our sources highlight. 00:09:23.620 --> 00:09:25.659 The federal government is giving Westinghouse 00:09:25.659 --> 00:09:29.039 electric $80 billion to build nuclear reactors. 00:09:29.299 --> 00:09:33.340 $80 billion? That's huge. It is. And in return, 00:09:33.799 --> 00:09:36.620 the government gets 20 percent of Westinghouse's 00:09:36.620 --> 00:09:40.519 shares by 2029. So we're talking federal government 00:09:40.519 --> 00:09:44.080 ownership stakes in two absolutely critical industries, 00:09:44.700 --> 00:09:47.379 microchips and energy. But hang on, is this really 00:09:47.379 --> 00:09:51.000 classic socialism or is it more like, you know, 00:09:51.220 --> 00:09:53.799 industrial policy like wartime efforts or just 00:09:53.799 --> 00:09:56.320 taking equity stakes for national security, securing 00:09:56.320 --> 00:09:58.960 supply chains? Is socialism just being used for 00:09:58.960 --> 00:10:02.019 shock value here? That's a fair question. The 00:10:02.019 --> 00:10:05.039 danger highlighted isn't necessarily purely ideological 00:10:05.039 --> 00:10:08.419 socialism. It's more pragmatic. It's about control. 00:10:08.659 --> 00:10:10.480 How so? When the government owns a significant 00:10:10.480 --> 00:10:12.559 stake, the president can potentially leverage 00:10:12.559 --> 00:10:14.559 that ownership. They could pressure a company 00:10:14.559 --> 00:10:17.100 like Westinghouse into making really bad business 00:10:17.100 --> 00:10:19.480 decisions purely for political reasons, like 00:10:19.480 --> 00:10:21.940 building a factory where it makes no sense. Exactly. 00:10:22.120 --> 00:10:24.299 Imagine ordering them to build a reactor in, 00:10:24.500 --> 00:10:26.519 say, Times Square or some key swing district, 00:10:26.899 --> 00:10:29.100 just as political payback or to curry favor, 00:10:29.320 --> 00:10:31.779 even if it's commercially disastrous. A purely 00:10:31.779 --> 00:10:33.740 private company wouldn't waste billions like 00:10:33.740 --> 00:10:35.759 that. A company partially owned by the government 00:10:35.759 --> 00:10:38.500 they might feel compelled to. That's the potential. 00:10:38.509 --> 00:10:41.230 distortion. OK, interesting. Let's look at another 00:10:41.230 --> 00:10:43.889 institutional piece, the Senate Syllabuster. 00:10:44.470 --> 00:10:47.370 When Trump suggested ending the shutdown by nuking 00:10:47.370 --> 00:10:49.889 the filibuster, there was immediate pushback, 00:10:50.009 --> 00:10:52.789 even from within the GOP. Oh, yes, swift pushback. 00:10:53.110 --> 00:10:55.090 Senate Majority Leader Thune's spokesperson came 00:10:55.090 --> 00:10:56.990 out right away, said the leaders position on 00:10:56.990 --> 00:10:59.629 the filibuster is unchanged. Even House Speaker 00:10:59.629 --> 00:11:01.870 Johnson defended it as an important safeguard. 00:11:02.470 --> 00:11:04.870 Which seems odd because Republicans often complain 00:11:04.870 --> 00:11:06.789 about the filibuster when they're in power and 00:11:06.789 --> 00:11:09.919 Democrats use it. Why protect it now? It's the 00:11:09.919 --> 00:11:12.659 long game. They're thinking ahead, way past the 00:11:12.659 --> 00:11:15.240 current shutdown, probably to 2028 and beyond. 00:11:15.340 --> 00:11:17.899 How does that work? They fear that if they abolish 00:11:17.899 --> 00:11:20.080 the filibuster now, what happens if Democrats 00:11:20.080 --> 00:11:22.899 eventually win a trifecta White House Senate, 00:11:23.139 --> 00:11:25.860 say, after 2028? Then the Democrats could pass 00:11:25.860 --> 00:11:28.279 everything on their wish list with just 51 votes. 00:11:28.700 --> 00:11:31.200 Exactly. D .C. and Puerto Rico statehood may 00:11:31.200 --> 00:11:33.740 be overhauling the courts, codifying abortion 00:11:33.740 --> 00:11:36.000 rights nationally, major voting rights acts, 00:11:36.279 --> 00:11:39.000 everything the GOP opposes. So by keeping the 00:11:39.000 --> 00:11:41.620 filibuster now, even though it's currently inconvenient 00:11:41.620 --> 00:11:44.389 for ending the shutdown, They maintain the moral 00:11:44.389 --> 00:11:46.429 high ground, or at least the procedural argument, 00:11:46.710 --> 00:11:49.210 to fight against Democrats using the nuclear 00:11:49.210 --> 00:11:52.309 option later on, whenever the tables turn. It's 00:11:52.309 --> 00:11:54.970 about preserving that institutional check for 00:11:54.970 --> 00:11:56.669 the future when they might be in the minority. 00:11:57.049 --> 00:11:59.009 Right. And this focus on preserving institutional 00:11:59.009 --> 00:12:01.509 barriers is happening against a backdrop of, 00:12:01.509 --> 00:12:03.809 well, a really pessimistic national mood, isn't 00:12:03.809 --> 00:12:06.429 it? Extremely pessimistic, that recent Politico 00:12:06.429 --> 00:12:10.200 Public First poll. Wow, nearly half of Americans, 00:12:10.299 --> 00:12:13.419 49%, think the country's best times are already 00:12:13.419 --> 00:12:15.259 in the past. And the polarization within that 00:12:15.259 --> 00:12:17.379 pessimism is stark. Incredibly stark. Look at 00:12:17.379 --> 00:12:20.460 this. 51 % of Harris voters say the U .S. is 00:12:20.460 --> 00:12:23.080 not a functioning democracy, but 52 % of Trump 00:12:23.080 --> 00:12:25.559 voters say it is. Complete opposites. And the 00:12:25.559 --> 00:12:28.299 American dream. 46 % of all Americans think it's 00:12:28.299 --> 00:12:31.580 dead. That jumps to 55 % among 18 - to 24 -year 00:12:31.580 --> 00:12:33.960 -olds. Think about that. And the desire for change. 00:12:34.419 --> 00:12:36.740 Not small tweaks people want? No, not at all. 00:12:36.740 --> 00:12:39.899 This is crucial. 52 % of adults want radical 00:12:39.899 --> 00:12:42.740 change, not incremental adjustments, radical. 00:12:43.159 --> 00:12:45.360 And among those 18 to 24 year olds, it soars 00:12:45.360 --> 00:12:48.559 to 64%. So the institutions are trying to hold 00:12:48.559 --> 00:12:51.059 the line, preserve safeguards like the filibuster, 00:12:51.419 --> 00:12:54.000 but the public is basically screaming for fundamental 00:12:54.000 --> 00:12:57.330 upheaval. That's the tension. a massive disconnect 00:12:57.330 --> 00:12:59.809 between the institutional desire for stability 00:12:59.809 --> 00:13:03.110 and the public's craving for radical transformation. 00:13:03.549 --> 00:13:05.309 Okay, let's bring this back to institutional 00:13:05.309 --> 00:13:08.529 leverage, specifically subpoena power. Let's 00:13:08.529 --> 00:13:10.629 talk about those unsealed documents involving 00:13:10.629 --> 00:13:13.990 Jeffrey Epstein and JPMorgan Chase. The SARS, 00:13:14.429 --> 00:13:17.299 right. suspicious activity reports. Right. Banks 00:13:17.299 --> 00:13:19.840 have to file these SARs when they see weird transactions. 00:13:20.419 --> 00:13:23.700 And Chase filed them on a staggering $1 .2 billion 00:13:23.700 --> 00:13:27.320 going in and out of Epstein's accounts just between 00:13:27.320 --> 00:13:31.340 2003 and his death. $1 .2 billion. And the reports 00:13:31.340 --> 00:13:34.179 flagged things. Oh, yeah. Sources call it a treasure 00:13:34.179 --> 00:13:37.039 trove of clues, including huge transactions involving 00:13:37.039 --> 00:13:39.919 two major Russian banks, Alpha Bank and Spurbank. 00:13:40.360 --> 00:13:42.419 But apparently the FBI didn't act on this for 00:13:42.419 --> 00:13:45.320 years. Now a judge, Judge Rakoff, has unsealed 00:13:45.320 --> 00:13:47.659 hundreds of pages. Yes, naming prominent people 00:13:47.659 --> 00:13:50.000 like Leon Black, Glenn Dubin, Alan Dorshowitz, 00:13:50.120 --> 00:13:53.080 Leslie Wexner. This is exactly why control of 00:13:53.080 --> 00:13:55.740 the House and its subpoena power becomes so incredibly 00:13:55.740 --> 00:13:58.100 critical. OK, give us the smoking gun example. 00:13:58.480 --> 00:14:00.450 Why does House control ma— matters so much here. 00:14:00.809 --> 00:14:03.809 Look at Leon Black. The unsealed documents show 00:14:03.809 --> 00:14:08.690 he paid Epstein $158 million. For what? For tax 00:14:08.690 --> 00:14:12.470 and estate planning. $158 million for tax advice 00:14:12.470 --> 00:14:15.610 from Jeffrey Epstein. I mean, the sources call 00:14:15.610 --> 00:14:18.950 it completely absurd. Epstein had zero qualifications 00:14:18.950 --> 00:14:21.409 for that kind of high -level work. A top -tier 00:14:21.409 --> 00:14:24.429 law firm might charge maybe $1 million for the 00:14:24.429 --> 00:14:27.250 most complex plan imaginable. This was literally 00:14:27.250 --> 00:14:30.299 over 100 times that standard rate. So if Democrats 00:14:30.299 --> 00:14:33.519 win the House majority, what changes? Supina 00:14:33.519 --> 00:14:36.720 power. Simple as that. They could force JPMorgan 00:14:36.720 --> 00:14:39.740 Chase to release all 20 years of Epstein's transaction 00:14:39.740 --> 00:14:41.559 records, not just the summaries, the actual flow 00:14:41.559 --> 00:14:43.840 of money. And they can call people in? Crucially, 00:14:44.000 --> 00:14:46.000 yes. They could subpoena someone like Leon Black, 00:14:46.200 --> 00:14:48.240 put him under oath, remind him about perjury 00:14:48.240 --> 00:14:50.899 laws, and force him to explain, why did you pay 00:14:50.899 --> 00:14:54.100 a known felon $158 million for services he wasn't 00:14:54.100 --> 00:14:56.980 qualified or even legally allowed to provide? 00:14:57.279 --> 00:15:00.500 That power to compel testimony under oath. That's 00:15:00.500 --> 00:15:02.919 the final missing link to potentially untangling 00:15:02.919 --> 00:15:06.220 Epstein's entire financial network. Okay. So 00:15:06.220 --> 00:15:08.379 pulling all these threads together, the state 00:15:08.379 --> 00:15:11.620 races, the SNAP crisis, the filibuster fight, 00:15:11.740 --> 00:15:15.220 the Epstein files, what's the big picture? It 00:15:15.220 --> 00:15:17.860 really points to one overwhelming reality, I 00:15:17.860 --> 00:15:22.240 think. All politics is now national, completely 00:15:22.240 --> 00:15:24.399 nationalized. And there's data backing that up. 00:15:24.759 --> 00:15:27.600 Staggering data. In 2024, the correlation between 00:15:27.600 --> 00:15:29.639 how a state voted for president and how it voted 00:15:29.639 --> 00:15:33.600 in its Senate race reached 0 .91. That's an incredibly 00:15:33.600 --> 00:15:35.899 high correlation. Meaning? Meaning in 30 out 00:15:35.899 --> 00:15:39.379 of 33 Senate races last cycle, the same party 00:15:39.379 --> 00:15:41.159 won both the presidential vote in that state 00:15:41.159 --> 00:15:43.659 and the Senate seat. The national brand, the 00:15:43.659 --> 00:15:46.299 top of the ticket, is just overwhelming almost 00:15:46.299 --> 00:15:49.299 everything else. Local factors, candidate quality, 00:15:49.899 --> 00:15:51.580 they matter much less than they used to. Even 00:15:51.580 --> 00:15:53.500 with things like gerrymandering happening? Even 00:15:53.500 --> 00:15:55.559 with aggressive gerrymandering, like in Ohio. 00:15:56.000 --> 00:15:57.700 You mentioned Representative Landsman's district. 00:15:57.980 --> 00:16:00.240 It went from D plus three to R plus five on the 00:16:00.240 --> 00:16:04.000 map, a significant shift. But the latest national 00:16:04.000 --> 00:16:07.279 NBC House generic ballot poll has Democrats up 00:16:07.279 --> 00:16:10.710 by eight points nationally. If that holds or 00:16:10.710 --> 00:16:13.190 anything close to it, that national mood puts 00:16:13.190 --> 00:16:16.190 potentially 59 Republican incumbents in districts 00:16:16.190 --> 00:16:19.110 rated R plus seven or even bluer at risk. The 00:16:19.110 --> 00:16:21.409 national wave can overcome even pretty strong 00:16:21.409 --> 00:16:24.049 map distortions. But there's still that Democratic 00:16:24.049 --> 00:16:26.269 brand problem, right? Especially with certain 00:16:26.269 --> 00:16:28.389 groups. Oh, absolutely. It's a huge challenge. 00:16:28.509 --> 00:16:30.830 When you pull working class voters, they consistently 00:16:30.830 --> 00:16:33.490 describe Democrats using words like woke. weak, 00:16:33.529 --> 00:16:36.269 out of touch. So how does a Democrat even win 00:16:36.269 --> 00:16:38.970 in a red state, then? The only path seems to 00:16:38.970 --> 00:16:41.590 be staking out positions that are, frankly, almost 00:16:41.590 --> 00:16:43.970 anathema to the national party base, you know, 00:16:44.090 --> 00:16:46.450 being vocally pro -life or pro -coal or pro -gun, 00:16:46.570 --> 00:16:48.549 basically running against a national brand just 00:16:48.549 --> 00:16:50.889 to survive locally. But then how does that help 00:16:50.889 --> 00:16:53.210 the party nationally? Well, the argument is, 00:16:53.269 --> 00:16:55.570 look, even a pro filibuster Democrat from a red 00:16:55.570 --> 00:16:58.049 state who maybe votes against the party line 00:16:58.049 --> 00:17:00.049 sometimes, they still vote with the Democratic 00:17:00.049 --> 00:17:02.669 majority, maybe 90, 95 percent of the time on 00:17:02.669 --> 00:17:05.170 crucial organizing votes, committee assignments, 00:17:05.369 --> 00:17:07.920 leadership. Which is still better for the majority 00:17:07.920 --> 00:17:10.420 than a Republican who votes with them zero percent 00:17:10.420 --> 00:17:13.259 of the time. Exactly. So this deep conflict, 00:17:13.299 --> 00:17:16.220 the National Party image versus what it takes 00:17:16.220 --> 00:17:19.019 for a candidate to survive locally in a tough 00:17:19.019 --> 00:17:21.339 state that's just going to keep driving polarization 00:17:21.339 --> 00:17:26.299 and honestly, electoral chaos. OK. So let's recap. 00:17:26.880 --> 00:17:29.720 We've seen the high stakes gamble around. Essent 00:17:29.720 --> 00:17:32.900 Mink funding is directly tied to the fight for 00:17:32.900 --> 00:17:36.029 subpoena power over the Epstein files. We've 00:17:36.029 --> 00:17:38.430 seen how the biggest steps toward something resembling 00:17:38.430 --> 00:17:40.970 socialism, these huge federal equity stakes, 00:17:41.509 --> 00:17:44.109 are happening quietly at the federal level. And 00:17:44.109 --> 00:17:46.890 we see a public demanding radical change while 00:17:46.890 --> 00:17:49.049 institutions try to hang on to old safeguards 00:17:49.049 --> 00:17:51.670 like the filibuster. That really covers the key 00:17:51.670 --> 00:17:53.869 connections we've traced today. So here's the 00:17:53.869 --> 00:17:55.450 final thought we want to leave you with, especially 00:17:55.450 --> 00:17:57.569 as you watch the results come in tomorrow night. 00:17:57.789 --> 00:18:00.230 Given this intense nationalization of politics, 00:18:00.829 --> 00:18:03.789 remember that .91 correlation between president 00:18:03.789 --> 00:18:06.670 and Senate votes does focusing on hyperlocal 00:18:06.670 --> 00:18:10.039 races still tell us much? Think about those races 00:18:10.039 --> 00:18:12.500 we mentioned, like the District Attorney or Sheriff 00:18:12.500 --> 00:18:15.259 race in Bucks County, Pennsylvania. Are they 00:18:15.259 --> 00:18:18.940 still meaningful barometers for 2026? Or is the 00:18:18.940 --> 00:18:21.859 power of the national brand, the national mood, 00:18:22.440 --> 00:18:24.779 just so overwhelming now that those local results 00:18:24.779 --> 00:18:26.900 are simply reflecting the bigger picture anyway? 00:18:27.299 --> 00:18:29.519 Are they just a function of that generalized 00:18:29.519 --> 00:18:31.839 national feeling? Exactly. It's something to 00:18:31.839 --> 00:18:34.700 really ponder. We encourage you. track some of 00:18:34.700 --> 00:18:37.339 those really local outcomes on Wednesday, see 00:18:37.339 --> 00:18:39.920 how closely they seem to mirror the broader national 00:18:39.920 --> 00:18:42.200 swings, or if they show any local deviation, 00:18:42.640 --> 00:18:44.259 it might tell you a lot about where politics 00:18:44.259 --> 00:18:46.059 is heading. Definitely something to think about. 00:18:46.440 --> 00:18:48.059 We'll leave it there for this deep dive. We'll 00:18:48.059 --> 00:18:48.680 talk to you next time.