WEBVTT

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Welcome to the Deep Dive. We've got a really

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potent mix of sources in front of us today. It's

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quite the stack. Yeah, it really is. We're looking

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at these urgent reports on the government shutdown's

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immediate impact right alongside a really detailed

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fact check of major policy announcement. And

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some pretty striking examples of political maneuvering

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shifting communication standards. It's a lot.

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So our mission here is pretty straightforward

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We want to quickly give you the core facts help

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you You know cut through all the rhetoric and

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really understand the tangible consequences from

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like global nuclear policy way up here down to

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well Whether your neighbor can buy groceries

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this weekend. Oh connecting those dots. Okay,

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let's start with the most urgent thing It's Friday

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October 31st and the sources are screaming about

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this deadline for SNAP benefits expiring tomorrow

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SNAP the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program

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And yeah, screaming feels about right. This is

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huge. We're talking about 42 million Americans

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potentially losing vital support overnight. 42

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million. Yeah. Children, seniors, people with

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disabilities, veterans. And in Pennsylvania alone,

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the sources estimate about 2 million residents.

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2 million just in PA, facing losing funds for

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what? Milk? bread, fruits, the absolute basics.

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Exactly. And the panic is already setting in.

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We've got comments from faith leaders on the

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ground. Right, like Reverend Matthew Best in

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Harrisburg. He mentions seeing a big spike in

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worried emails, people stopping by the church,

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and are terrified about losing these funds come

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Saturday. And what's really crucial here, I think,

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is pushing back against the stigma. There's data

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from the Center on Budget and Policy Priorities.

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Oh, yeah. What did that show? It showed that

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85 % of families getting SNIP actually had at

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least one person working in the last year. 85%.

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Right. So the narrative that it's people who

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just don't want to work, it doesn't hold water.

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And for those who aren't working. Often it's

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health issues, disabilities, or just the crushing

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cost of child care, things preventing them from

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working, not a lack of desire. Reverend Bess

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also made that point about how close so many

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of us are to this, didn't he? He did. Said something

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like, most Americans are just a paycheck or two

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away. And the stats back it up, only about 46

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% have even three months of emergency savings.

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Wow. So one bad break, one medical bill. And

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you're right there. It makes this crisis feel

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much closer to home for everyone, you know. Let's

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stick with the human side. Councilman Ralph Rodriguez

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in Harrisburg shared his own story. Yeah, about

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growing up using the old food stamps, the actual

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coupons. He said it was the difference between

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a hot meal and going hungry. But he also talked

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about the embarrassment he felt using them as

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a kid. And that connects to Elizabeth Austin's

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piece from Books County. Really powerful. She

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talked about needing SNAP -E when her kid's father

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left, and then again, losing her job while her

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daughter had cancer. Yeah. Just an impossible

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situation. And she used that phrase, feeling

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a blanket of shame at the checkout. It just obliterates

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that whole just get a job line, doesn't it? Completely

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misses the mark. Ignores the messy reality of

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people's lives. OK, so that's... the human cost,

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the urgency. Now, let's look at the political

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side, the inaction allowing this. There's this

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story involving Senator John Thune. Ah, yes,

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the schadenfreude moment, as one source called

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it. Joy and misfortune. So Thunes identified

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as one of the key people with Trump, Speaker

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Johnson, who could actually help resolve the

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shutdown, right? Stop this SNAP crisis. Mm -hmm.

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Talk three with the power. But when asked about

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working through the weekend to fix it, he basically

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said... A waste of time. His words. Right. Waste

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of time. So he finishes up in the Senate, rushes

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off to Reagan National Airport. Yep. Heading

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home to South Dakota. Only to find his flight

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delayed by 90 minutes. And the reason for the

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delay. You can't make this up. Go on. Not enough

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air traffic controllers working. Yeah. Because

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of the government shutdown. Oh, God. The very

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shutdown he said wasn't worth his weekend. Grounded

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his own flight. Wow. OK. That's something. So.

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While there's this failure to act on domestic

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needs, we see this huge kind of aggressive global

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posturing. That's exactly. Let's shift gears

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to that nuclear weapons tweet. The announcement

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about resuming testing. First time in over 30

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years. Posted on a personal social media account.

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Instructing the Department of War. Yeah. The

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whole thing was just riddled with errors. It's

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almost like a masterclass in how not to announce

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policy. OK, let's break down the fact checks

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from the sources. Error one. The U .S. has the

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most nukes. False. Russia has more. Over 5 ,500.

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The U .S. is just over 5 ,000. So wrong on count

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one. Error two. Claiming the weapons were all

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updated and renovated during his first term.

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Mostly false. The big recent modernization effort

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largely kicked off under Obama. Okay. Error three.

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China will be even with the U .S. in five years.

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Highly unlikely. Projections show China hitting

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maybe 1 ,000 warheads by 2030. Still a distant

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third. even, just isn't accurate based on any

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intelligence. Error four, the core idea resuming

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physical tests of warheads. Yeah, this is a big

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one. First, nobody's done it in 30 years except

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North Korea. Second, it's unnecessary. We have

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advanced lab tests, simulations. So why risk

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it? Exactly. The huge risk is reigniting a global

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arms race, something basically everyone wants

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to avoid. And error five, telling the wrong department

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to do it. Department of War. Right. Well, first,

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that department name hasn't existed for ages.

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It's the Department of Defense now. But more

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fundamentally. It's not even DOD's job. No. The

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nuclear stockpile, its safety, maintenance. That's

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the Department of Energy, specifically the National

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Nuclear Security Administration. It's just wrong

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on every level. So the timing. An hour before

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meeting Xi Jinping, what were the sources saying

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about why? Why release something so demonstrably

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flawed? Well, a few competing theories emerged

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from the analysis. One possibility, pure power

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play, art of the deal stuff, trying to look tough

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before the meeting, even if the deal was mostly

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done. Another thought was narrative change. There

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was chatter, got the short end of the stick on

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the China deal that was coming out. This tweet

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definitely changed the headlines. Shifted the

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focus. Yeah, but the theory that seemed... Maybe

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most plausible given the air was confusion. Possibly.

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Russia has been testing some new nuclear powered

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missiles, not warheads. A key distinction. Maybe

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that got garbled or deliberately conflated. Or

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maybe even like Mejia nostalgia, that 1950s better

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dead than red nuclear testing vibe that was floated

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to. Regardless of the exact why, the what is

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striking. Five major factual errors rolled into

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one announcement. It suggests the facts themselves

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are secondary, right? The posture is the point.

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Exactly. Posturing over policy. Details don't

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matter as much as the dramatic declaration. pattern

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that sort of willful disregard for verifiable

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fact connects directly to our next bit here.

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Source is drawing paralyzed to Orwell's 1984.

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Right. The whole reject the evidence of your

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eyes and ears command. It feels very relevant

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to some of the political communication we're

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seeing. Aggressive spin, maybe even gaslighting.

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Let's look at examples. Speaker Mike Johnson

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on the shutdown. He said Democrats are required

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to open the government. Said Republicans were

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helpless, needed 60 votes in the Senate. OK,

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but technically you do need 60 votes to break

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a Senate filibuster, right? So isn't he just

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stating a fact. Ah, but that's the new speak

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aspect. He frames it like the 60 vote rule is

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some external force imposed by Democrats, making

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Republicans powerless. When actually. When actually

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Republicans have options they control. They can

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negotiate a bill differently to get 60 votes,

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maybe attract some moderates, or more drastically,

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they could just get rid of the filibuster rule

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itself for legislation. So he's presenting a

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choice they could make as an obstacle someone

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else put there. deflecting accountability. Precisely.

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It's spin that claims helplessness while ignoring

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their own agency. Then there is DHS Secretary

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Kristi Noem. This quote was pretty direct. Yes.

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Stating flat out, there's no American citizens

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that have been arrested or detained. Anything

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that you would hear or report that would be different

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than that is simply not true and false reporting.

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Wow. Just deny reality entirely. If reports contradict

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the official line, the reports must be false.

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It's that core Orwellian thing, isn't it? Telling

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you to distrust what you might see or hear elsewhere.

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Trust only the authority. And the last one, the

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Nobel Prize claim. This one was just out there.

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Oh, yeah. Energy Secretary Chris Wright and was

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amplified by Trump, claiming a Nobel Prize in

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physics for quantum computing work meant, quote,

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Trump 47 racks up his first Nobel Prize. But

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the work was done when? 1984 and 1985. Decades

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ago. Yeah. The source just dryly notes that presidents

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don't get to, like, co -own Nobels one during

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their term. It's claiming credit for something

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completely unrelated, separated by decades, just

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asserting a win. Facts optional. Chronology optional.

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Great. Let's use this idea of aggressive communication

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and look at political positioning. The New York

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governor's race. High stakes. Definitely. You've

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got Elise Stefanik, who rose fast in GOP leadership

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after Liz Cheney was ousted, now aiming for governor

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in a very blue state. New York is rated D plus

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eight. D plus eight, meaning Democrats usually

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win statewide by about eight points. Tough climb

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for a Republican. Very tough. She has resources,

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though. Thirteen million dollars banked. The

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Trump machine behind her. His top pollster, Tony

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Fabrizio. But the history. New York's only had

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one Republican governor in 50 years. George Pataki,

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who is pretty moderate. Right. And Trump himself

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hasn't done great there, polling wise. Thirty

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seven to forty three percent in recent elections.

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So what makes this race interesting, then? The

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polling. Yeah, the polling is where it gets weird.

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Governor Kathy Hochul, the incumbent Democrat,

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doesn't pull great against a generic anyone else.

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But against Stefanik specifically, Hochul usually

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leads. Usually. Usually. But there's this one

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poll, an outlier from the Manhattan Institute,

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that actually showed Stefanik slightly ahead,

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43 to 42 percent. Just one point, but still.

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OK, an outlier. But why is that specific poll

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so interesting? Because that same pollster, using

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presumably similar methods, also produced the

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best poll results for Zoran Momdani. The Democratic

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socialist who ran for NYC mayor? Exactly. An

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insurgent from the far left. Which leads to this

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fascinating theory in the source material. Which

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is? The potential existence of a Momdani Stefanik

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voter. Wait, what? How does that work? The idea

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is maybe there's a segment of voters who just

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want to shake things up. They crave disruption,

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insurgency, whether it comes from the far left

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like Mamdani or the far right like Stefanik.

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It's about breaking the status quo more than

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ideology. Huh. So attacking Mamdani's ideology

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might not be the slam dunk Stefanik hopes for

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if some voters are drawn to both kinds of insurgency.

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Potentially, yeah. It's an intriguing wrinkle

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anyway. It makes the race less straightforward.

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OK, we spent a lot of time on conflict, spin.

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Bad news, basically. Let's shift for the end.

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There's this concept mentioned, Freud and Freud.

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Yeah, the opposite of Schadenfreude. Finding

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joy in other people's joy. A nice counterpoint

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to all the antagonism. And the example comes

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from Pope Leo and Catholicos Patriarch Wa the

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Third. Right. Two major global Christian leaders.

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And you have to remember the history here. Tiny

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differences in doctrine between their predecessors

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churches led to centuries of, well, Actual violent

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conflict. Wars were fought over this stuff. Okay,

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serious historical baggage. Huge baggage. But

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in their meeting, Owe III apparently made a joke

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at Pope Leo's expense about being a Chicago White

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Sox fan. Just a gentle ribbing. Exactly. A light

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-hearted personal jab amidst this moment of,

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you know, significant ecumenical progress. What's

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the insight there? It's that despite disagreeing

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on really fundamental historical points of doctrine

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things, people literally killed each other over.

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They both understand they're fundamentally on,

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let's say, team Jesus. Focused on a bigger picture.

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Right. Shared goals. Making the world better,

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more humane. They showed you can disagree even

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profoundly without being disagreeable. Yeah.

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And that humor, that shared humanity is vital.

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OK, so wrapping this all up for you, the listener,

00:12:12.730 --> 00:12:15.110
we've gone from the devastating immediate impact

00:12:15.110 --> 00:12:17.909
of the SNF P cuts hitting families this weekend,

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all the way to global nuclear posturing based

00:12:21.570 --> 00:12:24.610
on, frankly, falsehoods and this really aggressive

00:12:24.610 --> 00:12:26.889
political spin designed to override reality.

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And then this contrast right between the political

00:12:28.990 --> 00:12:31.570
sphere, where facts seem optional and spin is

00:12:31.570 --> 00:12:33.610
king. And this example from the religious sphere.

00:12:34.039 --> 00:12:36.679
Leaders with centuries of conflict behind them,

00:12:36.919 --> 00:12:39.320
finding common ground, shared mission, even sharing

00:12:39.320 --> 00:12:41.980
a joke. The stakes feel incredibly high everywhere

00:12:41.980 --> 00:12:44.820
right now. Political failures have real painful

00:12:44.820 --> 00:12:48.559
consequences, as we see with SNAP. Reconciling

00:12:48.559 --> 00:12:50.840
deep divisions seems almost impossible sometimes.

00:12:51.139 --> 00:12:52.779
So the final thought we want to leave you with

00:12:52.779 --> 00:12:56.460
is this. If Pope Leo and Patriarch Alito III,

00:12:56.980 --> 00:12:59.500
with all that history, can find a way to focus

00:12:59.500 --> 00:13:02.820
on shared goals, value good humor, and disagree

00:13:02.820 --> 00:13:05.080
without hostility. What lesson can we take from

00:13:05.080 --> 00:13:08.759
that? In this age of polarization and just information

00:13:08.759 --> 00:13:11.360
chaos, how vital is finding that common ground,

00:13:11.519 --> 00:13:13.779
that touch of humor and humanity, even when the

00:13:13.779 --> 00:13:15.600
disagreements, whether they're political or doctrinal,

00:13:15.759 --> 00:13:18.039
feel monumentally important? Something to think

00:13:18.039 --> 00:13:18.279
about.
