WEBVTT

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Welcome back to the Deep Dive. Today, we're wading

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into some really complex territory, looking at

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sources covering everything from, well, some

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pretty wild constitutional maneuvers to serious

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economic jitters, and even how local elections

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are being fundamentally reshaped. That's right.

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We've got legal analyses, economic reports, ground

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level strategy docs. And what really jumps out

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is how interconnected it all seems to be. Yeah,

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it feels like different fronts in the same battle

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almost. The sources suggest key institutions

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institutions, the courts, the civil service,

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the Fed, election laws, they're all facing these

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strategic pressures, these workarounds. Exactly.

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for you listening is to really connect those

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dots, show you the specific tactics being used

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across these different areas. OK, so we'll kick

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off with this whole third term question, the

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length some are apparently considering to get

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around the 22nd Amendment. Then we'll pivot to

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the economy. The Fed's making big calls, but

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the data situation is looking really shaky, flying

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blind, basically. And finally, we'll dig into

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how power is being contested right down to the

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state and local level, from gerrymandering pushes

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to, believe it or not, your local utility board.

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Sounds like a plan. Let's start with that constitutional

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big one. The third term idea. Right. So the 22nd

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Amendment seems pretty clear, doesn't it? Two

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terms, period. It does. And interestingly, the

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sources mentioned Donald Trump himself publicly

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saying something like, based on what I read,

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I guess I'm not allowed to run. But despite that

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acknowledgement, there's clearly this intense

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interest in finding a way around it. The motivation

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seems pretty straightforward. Staying in the

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White House is seen as the best shield against

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potential prosecutions later on. OK, so if running

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directly is off the table, what are these convoluted

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workarounds, the source's detail? Let's start

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with the VP one. Ah, yes, the VP resignation

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strategy. It sounds simple initially, but it's

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legally fraught and politically risky. How's

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it supposed to work? Exactly. The idea is this.

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You run on a ticket, say, Vance Trump. They win.

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Then almost immediately, Vice President Vance

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resigns. And under the 25th Amendment, Trump

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as VP would then become president. Step three,

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President Trump nominates Vance to be his vice

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president again. Wow. That's intricate and cynical,

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maybe. What's the legal argument that even allows

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for considering this? It all hangs on a very

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specific reading of the 12th Amendment combined

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with the 22nd. The core question is, does the

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22nd Amendment make someone ineligible to the

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office of president, meaning they can't be elected

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president again? Or does it ban them from serving

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as president beyond two terms, no matter how

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they get there? If, and it's a big yes, five

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Supreme Court justices decided it only bans election.

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Well, then this VP resignation route potentially

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opens the door to serving multiple future terms.

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But the risks seem enormous. What if the VP just

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doesn't resign? That's the huge gamble. The sources

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point this out directly. Trust. You'd be relying

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entirely on someone like Vance in this hypothetical

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to actually step down. History isn't exactly

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reassuring there, I think, to Aaron Burr back

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in 1800. He could just say, nope, changed my

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mind, I'm president now. And the other key thing

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from the sources, apparently Trump himself dismissed

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this whole idea as too cute. Too cute. Interesting.

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So even he sees the potential backlash or, well,

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the sheer awkwardness of it. It suggests a recognition

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that making such an obvious kind of gamey maneuver

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the core of your path back to power might be

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politically toxic, regardless of the legal theory.

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OK, so that brings us to the other path mentioned,

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the Speaker of the House route. This one sounds

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even more complicated. Oh, it is. This is pure

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political theater meets constitutional arcana.

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Step one. Get elected Speaker of the House on

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January 3rd, 2029. Constitutionally, there's

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nothing stopping a former president or really

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almost anyone from becoming speaker. OK, so they're

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speaker. Then what? Then on Inauguration Day,

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January 20th, both the newly elected president

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and the newly elected vice president would have

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to resign simultaneously. Both of them. Both.

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That clears the decks. And under the presidential

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line of succession, the speaker of the House

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becomes president. But wait, isn't the speaker

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only acting president in that scenario? Exactly.

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That's the massive vulnerability. They serve

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only as acting president until a new vice president

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is nominated and confirmed by Congress. So it's

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incredibly precarious. Extremely. Your hold on

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power literally depends on your own heartbeat.

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If something happens to the acting president

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before a VP is confirmed, the presidency passes

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to the next person in line, the speaker pro tempore,

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or the Senate president pro tempore. And if Congress

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has flipped or is divided? You could inadvertently

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hand power right back to the opposition party.

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It requires a Republican House majority to even

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attempt, and it's fragile every step of the way.

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All right. Let's shift from these sort of grand

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constitutional schemes to something maybe less

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dramatic, but just as impactful. The rules around

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government administration, specifically appointments.

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Yes. The sources highlight real tension around

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the Vacancies Act, particularly that 120 -day

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limit for temporary appointments. It's meant

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to ensure Senate oversight, right, to stop presidents

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from just installing unconfirmed people indefinitely.

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But the claim is that this limit is being deliberately

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ignored. Repeatedly. The pattern described is

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using temporary appointments to install people.

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The Senate likely wouldn't confirm. The sources

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used terms like totally unqualified toadies.

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They mentioned specific examples like Alina Habba

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in New Jersey, Seagal Chadda in Nevada. And this

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recently came to a head in that Los Angeles case,

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the Assali ruling. Tell us about that clumsy

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ruse. Right. So the background is Bill Assali

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was serving as an acting U .S. attorney. Just

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before his 120 days were up, AG Pam Bondi's office

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fired him. Fired him. Yes. Only to immediately

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reappoint him as the first assistant U .S. attorney

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with the clear expectation he'd then step back

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into the acting U .S. attorney role through that

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position. Trying to reset the clock, essentially.

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Pretty much. But Judge Michael Seabright wasn't

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having it. He called it a clumsy ruse and ruled

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that Assali had unlawfully assumed the role the

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second time around. He disqualified him from

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being acting U .S. attorney, though he could

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stay as first assistant. OK, one judge, one district.

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Why does this ripple outwards? Because it potentially

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sets a precedent. The argument being made now

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is that other high -profile officials, like Lindsay

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Halligan, who signed indictments against Letitia

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James and James Comey in Virginia, were also

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put in place using similar maneuvers after their

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120 -day limits arguably expired. If the assailee

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logic holds, those indictments could be challenged,

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maybe even invalidated. And for Comey specifically?

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That's the critical part. The statute limitations

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on the potential charges against Comey has apparently

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run out. So if the indictment is invalid due

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to Halligan's appointment being improper, they

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likely can't just issue a new one. The case could

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just... Evacuate. Wow. Based on an administrative

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appointment rule. Something. Okay, let's look

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at the Pentagon now. Secretary Pete Hegseth and

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this push to remove civilian workers. Yeah, this

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is another angle on administrative power. The

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sources describe a move to significantly speed

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up firing civilian defense employees. How are

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they doing that? Aren't they usually protections

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appeals processes? There are. But this new internal

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memo apparently focuses on streamlining terminations

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for poor performance. Crucially, it seems to

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cut out prior steps like mandated improvement

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plans or multiple warnings. So it makes it faster,

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easier to fire individuals one by one. Exactly.

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Which might be a way to avoid the legal challenges

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that could block a large -scale sudden layoff

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or purge. It's firing by a thousand cuts, perhaps.

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But the sources suggest the real target isn't

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just poor performers in the traditional sense.

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That seems to be the core issue highlighted.

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The claim is that poor performance is being redefined

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or at least reinterpreted to mean disloyal. Disloyal

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to whom or what? Disloyal, according to the sources,

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means not subscribing to Donald Trump's agenda.

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So political alignment is effectively being equated

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with job competence. It's framed as an ideological

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purge masked as performance management. And the

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scale of this is significant. Apparently so.

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The material mentions the Pentagon having already

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shed about 60 ,000 civilian positions. That's

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around 8 % of that workforce. This memo looks

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designed to accelerate removing those deemed

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politically unreliable, or just not with the

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program. Okay, let's pivot to the economy. Things

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feel unstable, costs are high, but the sources

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suggest there's another layer here. A problem

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with the data itself. The Fed just cut rates

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by 0 .25%. Right. But the context provided is

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that they made that call while basically flying

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blind. Flying blind. Why? What's wrong with the

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economic data? Two big problems outlined. First,

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leadership instability at the Bureau of Labor

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Statistics, the BLS. Remember, Donald Trump fired

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the nonpartisan head, Erica McTarfer, reportedly

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over disagreements about the numbers. Right.

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And her replacement? Was nominated, but then

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withdrawn. So the BLS, which collects critical

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data on jobs and inflation, has been operating

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without confirmed nonpartisan leadership for

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a while. That raises questions about data collection

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and interpretation. OK, so that's one issue.

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What's the other factor making the Fed fly blind?

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The government shutdown. It directly halted or

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delayed the collection of a lot of the raw economic

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data the Fed relies on. Things like retail sales,

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construction spending, you name it. So they cut

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rates even though inflation was reportedly rising

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and unemployment too. Exactly. It was a gamble.

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If underlying inflation is actually the bigger

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long -term threat, cutting rates was the wrong

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move. They could pour fuel on the fire. But if

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recession was the immediate danger, maybe it

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was necessary. The point is, The decision seems

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to have been made with much less reliable information

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than usual, possibly driven more by political

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pressure to do something than by solid economics.

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And meanwhile, families are feeling the pinch

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directly. That rate cut isn't going to fix everything,

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especially these redoing race spikes like in

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Pennsylvania. No, it won't. Pennsylvania's situation

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is stark. The sources state it has the highest

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grocery price inflation in the country right

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now. 8 .2 percent year over year as of July 2025.

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That's huge. And nearby states too? Yeah. West

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Virginia at 6 .9 percent. New Jersey at 6 .8

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percent. Also very high. What's driving those

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numbers? Is it just general inflation or specific

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things? It seems to be a mix, but with some specific

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drivers really hitting hard. The report mentions

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rapid increases in basics, grains, beans, pasta

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up over 5 % just in a short period, much faster

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than the national average for those items. Plus

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you've got persistently high diesel fuel costs

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hitting transportation, overall regional inflation

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being higher in the Northeast for food and energy

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anyway, and maybe even issues with low market

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competition among grocers in some areas. So these

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are supply side problems, mostly. Things a Fed

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rate cut doesn't really address. Precisely. Rate

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cuts work on the demand side, trying to stimulate

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borrowing and spending. They don't make wheat

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cheaper or lower the cost of trucking food across

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the country. Global commodity issues, transport

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costs, those are outside the Fed's direct control.

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And there's another potential cost shock looming

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health care. The ACA preview for 2026 sounds

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alarming. It really does. The headline number

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is a projected average nationwide premium increase

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of around 26 percent, which is substantial in

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itself. But the bigger hit comes from the subsidies,

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right? That's the potential catastrophe. The

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enhanced federal subsidies, the premium tax credits

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that have made ACA plans affordable for millions,

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are set to expire if Congress doesn't act to

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extend them. What happens? Out -of -pocket costs

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for people getting those subsidies could, on

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average, more than double. The figure cited is

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a potential 114 percent increase in what people

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actually pay. 114 percent jump. Why would Congress

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let that happen? It seems politically dangerous.

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Well, it creates massive leverage, doesn't it?

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but the impact on people is severe. The sources

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use a specific example. A 60 -year -old couple

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in York County, Pennsylvania, their current annual

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premium with subsidies might be around $7 ,000

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if those subsidies expire. Their bill could shoot

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up to over $35 ,000 a year for the same coverage.

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unaffordable for most people. It's a cliff edge

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tied directly to congressional action or inaction.

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Okay, final segment. Let's look at the electoral

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map itself and how the rules governing it are

00:12:25.539 --> 00:12:28.039
being challenged. The sources point to the Supreme

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Court and the Voting Rights Act. What's at stake

00:12:30.360 --> 00:12:32.960
there? The expectation discussed is that the

00:12:32.960 --> 00:12:36.159
court might significantly weaken or gut, the

00:12:36.159 --> 00:12:39.279
last major operative piece of the VRA. And that

00:12:39.279 --> 00:12:41.980
piece is? What does it do? It's basically the

00:12:41.980 --> 00:12:45.279
main legal tool left to challenge racially discriminatory

00:12:45.279 --> 00:12:48.639
gerrymandering, states drawing electoral maps

00:12:48.639 --> 00:12:51.360
that dilute the voting power of minority groups.

00:12:52.159 --> 00:12:54.179
Section two is the key part remaining. So if

00:12:54.179 --> 00:12:56.139
that's weakened, what's the expected outcome?

00:12:56.440 --> 00:12:58.600
The sources suggest, particularly in southern

00:12:58.600 --> 00:13:01.259
states, there's a real eagerness champing at

00:13:01.259 --> 00:13:04.100
the bit. It is the phrase used to redraw congressional

00:13:04.100 --> 00:13:06.600
and state legislative maps to maximize partisan

00:13:06.600 --> 00:13:09.519
advantage, often by packing minority voters into

00:13:09.519 --> 00:13:12.059
fewer districts or spreading them out thinly

00:13:12.059 --> 00:13:14.159
to make nearly every district majority white,

00:13:14.740 --> 00:13:16.860
aiming for districts that are maybe 70 % white,

00:13:16.980 --> 00:13:19.820
30 % minority, for example. And there are specific

00:13:19.820 --> 00:13:22.220
examples of this ambition. Yes, South Carolina's

00:13:22.220 --> 00:13:24.860
LT Governor Pamela Vett is quoted wanting a clean

00:13:24.860 --> 00:13:27.940
sweep, explicitly aiming to eliminate the congressional

00:13:27.940 --> 00:13:31.019
district currently held by Jim Clyburn, a long

00:13:31.019 --> 00:13:33.500
serving black Democrat. So the goal is purely

00:13:33.500 --> 00:13:36.779
partisan gain using race as the tool once the

00:13:36.779 --> 00:13:39.529
VRA constraints are lifted. That appears to be

00:13:39.529 --> 00:13:42.330
the strategy described. Now, there are some potential

00:13:42.330 --> 00:13:44.830
roadblocks. Florida, for instance, actually has

00:13:44.830 --> 00:13:47.289
language in its state constitution banning maps

00:13:47.289 --> 00:13:50.649
drawn primarily for partisan gain. But Governor

00:13:50.649 --> 00:13:52.809
DeSantis has appointed five of the seven justices

00:13:52.809 --> 00:13:55.250
on the Florida Supreme Court. So how that state

00:13:55.250 --> 00:13:57.090
constitutional provision would be interpreted

00:13:57.090 --> 00:14:01.379
is an open question. Also, timing is tight. The

00:14:01.379 --> 00:14:03.200
Supreme Court would need to rule pretty quickly

00:14:03.200 --> 00:14:05.720
for states to draw and implement radically new

00:14:05.720 --> 00:14:08.460
maps before the 2026 election. OK, so that's

00:14:08.460 --> 00:14:10.980
the high level state and federal map manipulation.

00:14:11.500 --> 00:14:14.279
But the sources also talk about a push much further

00:14:14.279 --> 00:14:17.080
down the ballot into races that are usually,

00:14:17.080 --> 00:14:19.700
well, nonpartisan. This is a really significant

00:14:19.700 --> 00:14:22.960
trend highlighted. The idea that local elections,

00:14:23.220 --> 00:14:25.159
city councils, school boards, even things like

00:14:25.159 --> 00:14:27.139
water boards or utility commission should be

00:14:27.139 --> 00:14:30.039
nonpartisan is being actively challenged. How

00:14:30.039 --> 00:14:32.000
so? Who's doing it? Groups like Turning Point

00:14:32.000 --> 00:14:34.799
USA, now led by Erica Kirk, according to the

00:14:34.799 --> 00:14:37.519
sources, are reportedly making a concerted effort

00:14:37.519 --> 00:14:40.340
to inject partisanship into these low -profile

00:14:40.340 --> 00:14:43.179
races, to turn them into explicit Republican

00:14:43.179 --> 00:14:45.840
versus Democrat contests, even if the ballot

00:14:45.840 --> 00:14:48.220
doesn't list party labels. Can you give an example?

00:14:48.299 --> 00:14:50.500
The recall election mentioned in Mesa City, Arizona,

00:14:50.820 --> 00:14:52.720
they're targeting a Republican council member,

00:14:52.960 --> 00:14:55.340
Julie Spillsbury, not because she's a Democrat,

00:14:55.340 --> 00:14:58.259
she's not, but because she's seen as not aligned

00:14:58.259 --> 00:15:00.590
enough with the mangy wing of the party. She

00:15:00.590 --> 00:15:02.490
apparently supported Kamala Harris at some point.

00:15:02.850 --> 00:15:05.470
So it's about ideological purity within the party

00:15:05.470 --> 00:15:08.289
being enforced even in nonpartisan roles. Exactly.

00:15:08.350 --> 00:15:11.809
And it extends beyond just city councils. TPUSA

00:15:11.809 --> 00:15:14.149
is reportedly targeting positions like the Salt

00:15:14.149 --> 00:15:16.889
River Project Board. That's a major water and

00:15:16.889 --> 00:15:19.529
power provider in Arizona. The stated goal is

00:15:19.529 --> 00:15:22.289
to oust people. They label radical environmentalists

00:15:22.289 --> 00:15:25.389
and influence energy and climate policy at that

00:15:25.389 --> 00:15:28.429
very local but impactful level. The sources observe

00:15:28.429 --> 00:15:30.620
that this makes the whole idea of nonpartisan

00:15:30.620 --> 00:15:33.019
elections feel like a fairy tale? Yeah, because

00:15:33.019 --> 00:15:36.120
the strategy is asymmetric. One side is heavily

00:15:36.120 --> 00:15:38.080
investing resources, identifying candidates,

00:15:38.399 --> 00:15:40.500
mobilizing voters based on party affiliation

00:15:40.500 --> 00:15:42.879
for these races. They're aiming to out register

00:15:42.879 --> 00:15:45.940
opponents, sometimes 10 to 1, in specific local

00:15:45.940 --> 00:15:48.539
contexts. While the other side might still be

00:15:48.539 --> 00:15:50.360
operating under the old assumption that these

00:15:50.360 --> 00:15:52.879
races should be neutral. That seems to be the

00:15:52.879 --> 00:15:55.779
dynamic. So you get this gradual capture of local

00:15:55.779 --> 00:15:58.559
institutions, not through direct election changes,

00:15:59.139 --> 00:16:01.200
but by fundamentally changing the nature of the

00:16:01.200 --> 00:16:04.600
contest themselves, often under the radar. Hashtag

00:16:04.600 --> 00:16:07.240
tag outro. So, wrapping this all up, when you

00:16:07.240 --> 00:16:09.460
look across these different areas, the constitutional

00:16:09.460 --> 00:16:12.080
questions, the administrative power plays, the

00:16:12.080 --> 00:16:14.899
economic data issues, the electoral map fights

00:16:14.899 --> 00:16:16.759
there really is a common thread, isn't there?

00:16:16.919 --> 00:16:19.259
There is. It's a consistent challenge to establish

00:16:19.259 --> 00:16:21.899
rules, norms, and institutions, whether it's

00:16:21.899 --> 00:16:24.519
the 22nd Amendment's term limits, the 120D rule

00:16:24.519 --> 00:16:26.879
for appointments, the Voting Rights Act's protections,

00:16:27.200 --> 00:16:29.759
or even just the basic reliance on objective

00:16:29.759 --> 00:16:32.039
nonpartisan government data. Right. It feels

00:16:32.039 --> 00:16:34.840
like a multi -pronged pressure test on the system.

00:16:34.830 --> 00:16:38.090
designed for, well, stability and neutrality.

00:16:38.409 --> 00:16:41.110
Constitutional succession, bureaucratic impartiality,

00:16:41.309 --> 00:16:43.610
data integrity, they all seem to be in the crosshairs.

00:16:43.850 --> 00:16:46.230
And ultimately, when rules are bent or broken,

00:16:46.610 --> 00:16:48.750
you look to the legal system for accountability.

00:16:49.990 --> 00:16:52.190
Which brings us to one final point from the sources.

00:16:53.090 --> 00:16:56.230
The status of those fake elector cases. Yes.

00:16:56.509 --> 00:16:59.610
Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, Wisconsin.

00:16:59.690 --> 00:17:02.269
What's the update there? The truly startling

00:17:02.269 --> 00:17:05.380
thing is this. It's now four years since the

00:17:05.380 --> 00:17:08.519
events of 2020. Indictments were filed. But as

00:17:08.519 --> 00:17:11.279
of the time of these sources, not a single one

00:17:11.279 --> 00:17:13.359
of these fake electric cases has actually gone

00:17:13.359 --> 00:17:16.559
to trial. Four years. Why the delay? That seems

00:17:16.559 --> 00:17:19.079
extraordinary for something so central to the

00:17:19.079 --> 00:17:21.680
election process. The sources point to a cascade

00:17:21.680 --> 00:17:24.259
of procedural issues and failures. You have the

00:17:24.259 --> 00:17:26.160
controversy surrounding D .A. Fonney -Wilson's

00:17:26.160 --> 00:17:28.579
conduct in Georgia, potentially delaying things

00:17:28.579 --> 00:17:30.900
there. In Michigan, a judge actually dismissed

00:17:30.900 --> 00:17:33.240
charges against some electors, bizarrely stating

00:17:33.240 --> 00:17:35.640
they weren't savvy or sophisticated enough to

00:17:35.640 --> 00:17:38.299
understand what they were doing. Seriously. And

00:17:38.299 --> 00:17:42.119
in Nevada... there were legal battles just over

00:17:42.119 --> 00:17:44.039
whether the case was filed in the correct venue,

00:17:44.160 --> 00:17:47.500
the right county. So procedural roadblocks, questionable

00:17:47.500 --> 00:17:50.579
judicial rulings, venue disputes, all contributing

00:17:50.579 --> 00:17:53.960
to massive delays. So the old saying, justice

00:17:53.960 --> 00:17:56.500
delayed is justice denied seems relevant here.

00:17:56.579 --> 00:17:58.740
Very much so. And it leads to the final question

00:17:58.740 --> 00:18:00.700
we wanted to leave you with, something to really

00:18:00.700 --> 00:18:02.559
think about based on everything we've discussed

00:18:02.559 --> 00:18:06.099
today. OK. If serious attempts to interfere with

00:18:06.099 --> 00:18:09.640
or subvert an election occur, and our legal system

00:18:09.640 --> 00:18:12.500
through procedural snags, venue arguments, maybe

00:18:12.500 --> 00:18:15.480
even defenses, claiming political naivete proves

00:18:15.480 --> 00:18:17.920
unable to even bring those cases to trial within

00:18:17.920 --> 00:18:20.759
four years. What does that delay signal? What

00:18:20.759 --> 00:18:22.539
does it tell us about the rule of law's ability

00:18:22.539 --> 00:18:24.680
or handle politically charged time -sensitive

00:18:24.680 --> 00:18:27.259
offenses? And perhaps more importantly, what

00:18:27.259 --> 00:18:29.619
message does it send about the potential consequences

00:18:29.619 --> 00:18:32.420
or lack thereof for trying similar things in

00:18:32.420 --> 00:18:35.500
the future? A sobering thought to end on. That's

00:18:35.500 --> 00:18:37.019
definitely something for all of us to chew on.
