WEBVTT 00:00:00.000 --> 00:00:02.520 Welcome to the Depth Dive. We've got a really 00:00:02.520 --> 00:00:05.320 fascinating mix of sources this time that covers 00:00:05.320 --> 00:00:08.400 everything from these high -level global trade 00:00:08.400 --> 00:00:11.750 trips. all the way down to, well, some pretty 00:00:11.750 --> 00:00:14.169 tough economic news locally. And even into political 00:00:14.169 --> 00:00:16.370 strategy, it's quite a spread. It really is a 00:00:16.370 --> 00:00:19.109 study in contrast. And our goal today for you 00:00:19.109 --> 00:00:21.269 is basically to connect these threads that might 00:00:21.269 --> 00:00:23.489 seem totally separate. You know, how do these 00:00:23.489 --> 00:00:25.570 big international deals or maybe the lack of 00:00:25.570 --> 00:00:27.829 them actually hit home economically for Americans? 00:00:28.250 --> 00:00:30.949 And why does some politicians seem laser focused 00:00:30.949 --> 00:00:33.270 on the presidency, sometimes overlooking powerful, 00:00:33.570 --> 00:00:36.030 maybe more winnable jobs? Yeah, exactly. We're 00:00:36.030 --> 00:00:37.909 going to start with this big international tour. 00:00:38.030 --> 00:00:40.420 The source is called it. the TACO TRIP, which 00:00:40.420 --> 00:00:42.520 stands for Trade and Coordination Offensive. 00:00:42.939 --> 00:00:44.420 We'll look at what they claimed they achieved 00:00:44.420 --> 00:00:47.159 overseas and then immediately contrast that with, 00:00:47.179 --> 00:00:49.299 well, the tough realities hitting industries 00:00:49.299 --> 00:00:51.759 like construction right here. Let's start there, 00:00:51.820 --> 00:00:55.159 maybe in Pennsylvania. OK, so let's unpack this 00:00:55.159 --> 00:00:57.700 TACO TRIP. It was a week -long tour, right? Donald 00:00:57.700 --> 00:01:01.539 Trump hitting Malaysia, Japan, South Korea. The 00:01:01.539 --> 00:01:04.739 focus was trade, tariffs, and it all wrapped 00:01:04.739 --> 00:01:06.840 up with that big meeting with President Xi Jinping 00:01:06.840 --> 00:01:09.909 of China. So starting in Malaysia, what was the 00:01:09.909 --> 00:01:12.769 main tangible result? The key thing they secured 00:01:12.769 --> 00:01:14.969 was getting some Asian countries to coordinate 00:01:14.969 --> 00:01:18.409 on unfair trade practices, mostly aimed at China. 00:01:18.829 --> 00:01:20.430 But what's really interesting is how the sources 00:01:20.430 --> 00:01:22.150 describe it. They're basically saying it's a 00:01:22.150 --> 00:01:25.269 kind of watered down version of the Trans -Pacific 00:01:25.269 --> 00:01:28.129 Partnership, the TPP. The TPP, the deal the US 00:01:28.129 --> 00:01:30.769 pulled out of back in 2017. That's the one. So 00:01:30.769 --> 00:01:32.569 essentially, it walked away from the big comprehensive 00:01:32.569 --> 00:01:35.409 deal, spent years negotiating, and ended up with 00:01:35.409 --> 00:01:38.530 something Less comprehensive, let's say. Okay. 00:01:38.870 --> 00:01:42.370 So what did the Asian countries get for agreeing 00:01:42.370 --> 00:01:45.609 to coordinate on US sanctions? They got a much 00:01:45.609 --> 00:01:48.150 lower tariff rate on their exports to the u .s. 00:01:48.290 --> 00:01:50.930 The sources call it a bargain rate just 19 % 00:01:50.930 --> 00:01:53.370 Yeah, which you know Contracts pretty sharply 00:01:53.370 --> 00:01:55.909 with some of the promises made in return like 00:01:55.909 --> 00:01:58.890 Malaysia pledged 70 billion dollars in US investment 00:01:58.890 --> 00:02:00.829 over 10 years, right? But I remember reading 00:02:00.829 --> 00:02:03.170 there was a pretty big asterisk on that 70 billion 00:02:03.170 --> 00:02:05.390 dollars wasn't there Is that really a solid win 00:02:05.390 --> 00:02:08.090 or more like a headline very conditional? Yeah, 00:02:08.110 --> 00:02:10.330 Malaysia put in this specific clause saying they 00:02:10.330 --> 00:02:12.270 can delay the actual investment planning for 00:02:12.270 --> 00:02:15.090 three years and You know potentially just scrap 00:02:15.090 --> 00:02:17.469 the rest after that It feels more like a political 00:02:17.469 --> 00:02:20.009 pledge designed to last maybe only as long as 00:02:20.009 --> 00:02:22.919 the current administration Although Thailand 00:02:22.919 --> 00:02:25.539 did make a very concrete promise. They're buying 00:02:25.539 --> 00:02:28.099 80 Boeing aircraft, which is about 19 billion 00:02:28.099 --> 00:02:30.800 dollars. And since Thai Airways already uses 00:02:30.800 --> 00:02:33.000 Boeing, that seems like a genuine, recursively 00:02:33.000 --> 00:02:35.740 sound deal. OK, that makes sense. But let's talk 00:02:35.740 --> 00:02:37.620 about what the source is called the critical 00:02:37.620 --> 00:02:40.039 missing piece, the thing that kind of undermines 00:02:40.039 --> 00:02:43.740 the whole effort. rules of origin. Can you explain 00:02:43.740 --> 00:02:47.639 for our listener why this specific detail, basically 00:02:47.639 --> 00:02:50.099 proving where something was really made, is so 00:02:50.099 --> 00:02:52.780 fundamental? Why does ignoring it kind of wreck 00:02:52.780 --> 00:02:55.960 the whole China tariff strategy? Yeah, it's absolutely 00:02:55.960 --> 00:02:58.000 crucial because without strict rules of origin, 00:02:58.080 --> 00:03:01.099 you create this massive loophole. China can just 00:03:01.099 --> 00:03:03.819 ship parts, say, to Thailand or Malaysia. They 00:03:03.819 --> 00:03:06.199 get assembled there, maybe just minimally, and 00:03:06.199 --> 00:03:08.000 then the finished product gets shipped to the 00:03:08.000 --> 00:03:11.879 U .S. labeled Made in Malaysia. completely bypasses 00:03:11.879 --> 00:03:14.240 the tariffs meant for Chinese goods. Exactly. 00:03:14.500 --> 00:03:16.659 It evades the U .S. tariffs, and the net result 00:03:16.659 --> 00:03:19.409 is, well... Pretty much zero reduction in China's 00:03:19.409 --> 00:03:21.710 role as this sort of world's factory. It's a 00:03:21.710 --> 00:03:23.969 structural flaw in the whole approach. OK, moving 00:03:23.969 --> 00:03:26.909 on to Japan. Trump met the new prime minister, 00:03:27.250 --> 00:03:29.550 Sane Takaichi, and the sources seem to suggest 00:03:29.550 --> 00:03:31.889 the focus was mostly on getting a win he could 00:03:31.889 --> 00:03:34.229 talk about, maybe not something with long term 00:03:34.229 --> 00:03:36.650 legs. Was there any real progress on getting 00:03:36.650 --> 00:03:39.229 big U .S. investments there? Not really, no. 00:03:39.330 --> 00:03:41.750 I mean, Trump was apparently asking for hundreds 00:03:41.750 --> 00:03:45.020 of billions in U .S. investment. But, you know, 00:03:45.020 --> 00:03:47.139 the Japanese PM can't just order private companies 00:03:47.139 --> 00:03:50.699 like Toyota or Sony to build factories in the 00:03:50.699 --> 00:03:53.039 U .S. That's not how it works. They make decisions 00:03:53.039 --> 00:03:55.439 based on economic supply chains, not political 00:03:55.439 --> 00:03:58.759 demands. So what was the win then? Well, the 00:03:58.759 --> 00:04:00.840 sources say Takaichi just confirmed she planned 00:04:00.840 --> 00:04:04.120 to buy some Ford F -150 trucks. Apparently, that 00:04:04.120 --> 00:04:06.199 was enough to be framed as a political victory. 00:04:07.400 --> 00:04:09.639 OK, and then the final stop, the big meeting 00:04:09.639 --> 00:04:12.139 with Xi Jinping in China after all the tough 00:04:12.139 --> 00:04:15.509 talk, the tariff threats. What actually happened? 00:04:15.590 --> 00:04:17.850 What was the outcome? The bottom line, maybe 00:04:17.850 --> 00:04:20.050 a bit anti -climatically, was just restoring 00:04:20.050 --> 00:04:22.430 the status quo ante, getting back to where things 00:04:22.430 --> 00:04:24.670 were before China agreed to keep exporting rare 00:04:24.670 --> 00:04:26.810 earths for another year, and they agreed to buy 00:04:26.810 --> 00:04:28.910 some American soybeans again. That was basically 00:04:28.910 --> 00:04:32.089 it. So Trump's big achievement was undoing the 00:04:32.089 --> 00:04:34.870 damage his own threats had caused. Pretty much. 00:04:35.269 --> 00:04:38.290 Returning things to how they were. And the source's 00:04:38.290 --> 00:04:40.389 assessment of this is quite harsh. They actually 00:04:40.389 --> 00:04:42.529 pull out a quote from literature to describe 00:04:42.529 --> 00:04:46.579 it. A tale told by an idiot full of sound and 00:04:46.579 --> 00:04:51.000 fury signifying nothing. Wow, strong words. Yeah, 00:04:51.100 --> 00:04:52.839 and the point they're making is that Xi Jinping 00:04:52.839 --> 00:04:55.459 plays the long game. He's a strategic thinker. 00:04:55.860 --> 00:04:57.680 He likely figured that offering the illusion 00:04:57.680 --> 00:05:00.740 of a win, you know, promising to buy some soybeans 00:05:00.740 --> 00:05:03.680 would satisfy the immediate political need for 00:05:03.680 --> 00:05:06.500 a headline back in the U .S. Right, without giving 00:05:06.500 --> 00:05:08.839 up anything truly substantial, like on those 00:05:08.839 --> 00:05:11.279 rules of origin or intellectual property theft. 00:05:11.519 --> 00:05:13.439 Exactly. It prevents the U .S. from pushing for 00:05:13.439 --> 00:05:15.879 the serious structural changes. OK, so that lack 00:05:15.879 --> 00:05:18.220 of real structural progress on trade, the fact 00:05:18.220 --> 00:05:21.000 China can still transship goods, that brings 00:05:21.000 --> 00:05:23.000 us right back home. Let's connect that global 00:05:23.000 --> 00:05:25.860 uncertainty in the tariff situation to the actual 00:05:25.860 --> 00:05:28.019 financial pain being felt, specifically, like 00:05:28.019 --> 00:05:29.879 you said, in the Pennsylvania construction industry. 00:05:30.300 --> 00:05:32.079 Yeah, the sources paint a really clear picture 00:05:32.079 --> 00:05:34.620 here. There's been a noticeable slowdown starting 00:05:34.620 --> 00:05:38.620 back in 2023. One contractor, Greg Harris, mentioned 00:05:38.620 --> 00:05:42.589 a real drop in customer confidence. People are 00:05:42.589 --> 00:05:45.009 just hesitant to spend big money right now. So 00:05:45.009 --> 00:05:47.509 the work hasn't totally dried up, but it's changed. 00:05:47.769 --> 00:05:50.750 Exactly. The shift is away from the sort of high 00:05:50.750 --> 00:05:53.569 -end cosmetic stuff, you know, fancy kitchen 00:05:53.569 --> 00:05:55.990 remodels, big home additions. It's more towards 00:05:55.990 --> 00:05:58.689 necessary repairs, essential upgrades. Another 00:05:58.689 --> 00:06:01.129 company, Excel Remodeling, saw their backlog 00:06:01.129 --> 00:06:03.329 of jobs drop quite a bit. It suggests people 00:06:03.329 --> 00:06:05.649 are reacting to financial pressure, not pursuing 00:06:05.649 --> 00:06:08.490 luxury projects anymore. And what are the specific 00:06:08.490 --> 00:06:10.550 economic things the contractors are pointing 00:06:10.550 --> 00:06:13.069 to? What's making homeowners pause on these big 00:06:13.069 --> 00:06:15.089 projects? It sounds like a triple whammy, really. 00:06:15.750 --> 00:06:17.490 First, interest rates. They're much higher, which 00:06:17.490 --> 00:06:19.709 makes financing these projects tough. The source 00:06:19.709 --> 00:06:21.769 has mentioned a benchmark, like a five -year, 00:06:21.769 --> 00:06:25.009 $30 ,000 home equity loan is running around 8 00:06:25.009 --> 00:06:27.889 .13%. That's going to scare a lot of people off. 00:06:28.550 --> 00:06:31.550 Yeah, that's significant. Right. Second, costs 00:06:31.550 --> 00:06:34.920 are way up. Materials, labor. They've jumped 00:06:34.920 --> 00:06:38.019 about 18 % year over year since 2020. And those 00:06:38.019 --> 00:06:39.620 tariffs we were just talking about, the ones 00:06:39.620 --> 00:06:41.920 from the taco trip discussions that didn't get 00:06:41.920 --> 00:06:44.959 resolved structurally, they feed right into that 00:06:44.959 --> 00:06:47.199 18 % increase, don't they? This is an abstract 00:06:47.199 --> 00:06:50.180 policy. It's the price of wood, cabinets. Precisely. 00:06:50.480 --> 00:06:53.339 That 18 % includes the impact of specific tariffs. 00:06:53.600 --> 00:06:56.300 There's a 10 % tariff on timber and lumber imports 00:06:56.300 --> 00:07:00.060 and a really steep 25 % tariff on things like 00:07:00.060 --> 00:07:02.839 imported kitchen cabinets and furniture. Because 00:07:02.839 --> 00:07:05.459 there's no strong policy tackling that transshipment 00:07:05.459 --> 00:07:07.740 loophole, those costs just get passed down the 00:07:07.740 --> 00:07:09.339 line right to the homeowner in Pennsylvania. 00:07:09.680 --> 00:07:12.379 And the contractors are saying this feels. different, 00:07:12.399 --> 00:07:14.860 even compared to the big housing crash in 2008. 00:07:15.480 --> 00:07:17.199 That's a really interesting point they make. 00:07:17.480 --> 00:07:19.899 Back in 08, yeah, new home construction absolutely 00:07:19.899 --> 00:07:22.439 cratered. But remodeling actually grew because 00:07:22.439 --> 00:07:24.360 people decided to fix up their existing homes 00:07:24.360 --> 00:07:27.600 instead of moving. Oh, okay. But this time, the 00:07:27.600 --> 00:07:29.740 slowdown is hitting across the board new builds 00:07:29.740 --> 00:07:32.920 and remodeling. And on the commercial side, contractors 00:07:32.920 --> 00:07:34.800 are saying projects are dragging out longer, 00:07:35.240 --> 00:07:37.160 not just because financing is harder to get, 00:07:37.500 --> 00:07:39.279 but also because of issues at the local level. 00:07:39.300 --> 00:07:41.579 Like what kind of issue? Specifically, the building 00:07:41.579 --> 00:07:43.899 permit process, particularly in Pennsylvania. 00:07:44.620 --> 00:07:46.899 Apparently, it's not streamlined at all. Each 00:07:46.899 --> 00:07:49.220 little municipality has its own rules, its own 00:07:49.220 --> 00:07:52.160 timelines. It creates huge headaches and delays 00:07:52.160 --> 00:07:54.240 for contractors working across different areas. 00:07:54.759 --> 00:07:56.660 Okay, so given all that, what's the outlook? 00:07:56.990 --> 00:07:59.810 Are builders feeling optimistic for a quick turnaround? 00:08:00.569 --> 00:08:03.389 Not really, no. They're pretty pessimistic about 00:08:03.389 --> 00:08:05.949 the near -term. The projection seems to be that 00:08:05.949 --> 00:08:09.170 2026 will probably start a lot like 2025 ended, 00:08:09.889 --> 00:08:12.189 unless, you know, interest rates drop significantly. 00:08:12.829 --> 00:08:14.829 And then there's the political uncertainty factor, 00:08:14.910 --> 00:08:17.110 things like government shutdowns. That threat 00:08:17.110 --> 00:08:19.089 hangs over them because it delays government 00:08:19.089 --> 00:08:21.310 -funded projects, which many commercial contractors 00:08:21.310 --> 00:08:23.790 rely on. That mention of political instability 00:08:23.790 --> 00:08:26.170 is actually a perfect bridge to our next segment, 00:08:26.370 --> 00:08:28.529 political strategy. The sources point out something 00:08:28.529 --> 00:08:31.310 pretty fundamental. The presidency has just become 00:08:31.310 --> 00:08:33.769 the dominant branch of government, even though 00:08:33.769 --> 00:08:36.210 technically Article I puts Congress first in 00:08:36.210 --> 00:08:38.590 the Constitution. And this seems to be driving 00:08:38.590 --> 00:08:41.370 a really weird, maybe irrational political trend. 00:08:41.769 --> 00:08:43.629 Yeah, we're calling it the probability problem. 00:08:44.149 --> 00:08:47.789 You have these really ambitious, often very qualified 00:08:47.789 --> 00:08:50.429 politicians, right? And they seem to be choosing 00:08:50.679 --> 00:08:53.039 the political equivalent of a lottery ticket, 00:08:53.700 --> 00:08:56.500 a tiny chance of the presidency over what looks 00:08:56.500 --> 00:08:59.740 like an almost guaranteed win for a really powerful 00:08:59.740 --> 00:09:02.220 job, like a governorship or a Senate seat. It 00:09:02.220 --> 00:09:05.259 does seem strategically odd, doesn't it, considering 00:09:05.259 --> 00:09:08.019 how much power governors and senators actually 00:09:08.019 --> 00:09:09.860 wield. Can you give us some of those examples 00:09:09.860 --> 00:09:12.720 the source has brought up where ambition seems 00:09:12.720 --> 00:09:16.190 to trump? Uh, the electoral math? Sure. Take 00:09:16.190 --> 00:09:18.370 Kamala Harris. The sources pointed out she passed 00:09:18.370 --> 00:09:20.929 up a very winnable run for California governor 00:09:20.929 --> 00:09:23.549 to enter a presidential primary where, according 00:09:23.549 --> 00:09:25.409 to betting markets at the time, her odds were 00:09:25.409 --> 00:09:28.190 maybe 1 .5 percent. Pretty long shot. OK. Who 00:09:28.190 --> 00:09:30.009 else? Or think about Andy Beshear in Kentucky. 00:09:30.070 --> 00:09:31.990 He's term -limited as governor. He's won statewide 00:09:31.990 --> 00:09:34.169 three times in a red state. He'd be the clear 00:09:34.169 --> 00:09:35.990 favorite for Mitch McConnell's open Senate seat. 00:09:36.330 --> 00:09:39.289 But all signs point to him aiming higher for 00:09:39.289 --> 00:09:41.029 the White House. And it's not just them, right? 00:09:41.179 --> 00:09:43.600 Pete Buttigieg moved to Michigan, could have 00:09:43.600 --> 00:09:45.799 run for open governor or Senate seats there, 00:09:46.080 --> 00:09:49.259 likely as a favorite, but seems focused elsewhere. 00:09:49.600 --> 00:09:52.039 Exactly. And Ron DeSantis, even after the 2024 00:09:52.039 --> 00:09:55.379 primary didn't go his way, seems focused on 2028 00:09:55.379 --> 00:09:58.620 presidential run odds, currently around 2 .4 00:09:58.620 --> 00:10:00.720 percent, apparently. Instead of, say, running 00:10:00.720 --> 00:10:03.059 in the 2026 Florida Senate primary against an 00:10:03.059 --> 00:10:05.000 appointed incumbent, a race he'd probably win 00:10:05.000 --> 00:10:07.299 easily. Right. And J .B. Pritzker in Illinois. 00:10:07.930 --> 00:10:10.490 Passing up Dick Durbin's Senate seat, which seems 00:10:10.490 --> 00:10:13.269 like a safe bet in deep blue Illinois again for 00:10:13.269 --> 00:10:16.389 a very long shot presidential bid. It's a pattern. 00:10:16.620 --> 00:10:19.000 This focus on the top job seems to overshadow 00:10:19.000 --> 00:10:21.840 very powerful, very achievable alternatives. 00:10:22.360 --> 00:10:24.639 And this disconnect, this focus issue, it seems 00:10:24.639 --> 00:10:26.700 mirrored in some of the voter dynamics, especially 00:10:26.700 --> 00:10:29.240 around the economy. The sources highlighted a 00:10:29.240 --> 00:10:31.100 pretty sharp drop in support for Trump among 00:10:31.100 --> 00:10:33.220 some minority groups. Yeah, it's quite dramatic. 00:10:33.759 --> 00:10:35.820 His approval with Latino voters, according to 00:10:35.820 --> 00:10:38.000 these sources, fell from around 44 percent down 00:10:38.000 --> 00:10:40.700 to 25 percent. And among black voters, it's down 00:10:40.700 --> 00:10:45.000 at 16 percent. And the reason cited is overwhelmingly 00:10:45.000 --> 00:10:48.580 economic pessimism. You have 84 % of black respondents, 00:10:48.840 --> 00:10:51.500 70 % of Latino respondents saying they're deeply 00:10:51.500 --> 00:10:53.620 unhappy with the country's direction, feeling 00:10:53.620 --> 00:10:55.580 their own economic situation has gotten worse. 00:10:56.120 --> 00:10:57.940 And this connects to something else the sources 00:10:57.940 --> 00:10:59.779 mentioned, this idea of the great switcheroo, 00:10:59.899 --> 00:11:02.200 the sort of gentrification of the Democratic 00:11:02.200 --> 00:11:04.820 Party since about 2008. That's right. The data 00:11:04.820 --> 00:11:07.519 suggests Democrats have, in effect, swapped lower 00:11:07.519 --> 00:11:09.279 -income voters for higher -income voters over 00:11:09.279 --> 00:11:12.139 the last decade or so. median income in House 00:11:12.139 --> 00:11:14.519 districts, it's now higher in Democratic districts 00:11:14.519 --> 00:11:18.779 about $81 ,000 compared to $69 ,000 in GOP districts. 00:11:19.059 --> 00:11:21.120 So what does that mean in terms of policy focus? 00:11:21.580 --> 00:11:24.080 It means affluent Democratic voters might be 00:11:24.080 --> 00:11:26.620 more focused on issues like climate change, social 00:11:26.620 --> 00:11:29.100 justice, maybe the salt cap deduction limit, 00:11:29.440 --> 00:11:32.399 things that resonate with higher earners. Meanwhile, 00:11:32.799 --> 00:11:35.019 lower income voters who might be drifting away 00:11:35.019 --> 00:11:37.740 are probably more focused on immediate concerns. 00:11:38.200 --> 00:11:41.370 Jobs, inflation, the price of gas and groceries. 00:11:42.049 --> 00:11:43.990 But the argument in the sources is that this 00:11:43.990 --> 00:11:47.629 shift towards a wealthier base. It's not sustainable 00:11:47.629 --> 00:11:49.769 for winning national elections. Mathematically, 00:11:50.029 --> 00:11:52.330 it's tough. There just aren't enough high income 00:11:52.330 --> 00:11:55.769 voters nationwide to form a stable long term 00:11:55.769 --> 00:11:58.799 majority coalition. So the recommendation coming 00:11:58.799 --> 00:12:01.000 out of these sources for Democrats is basically 00:12:01.000 --> 00:12:03.340 to retool their messaging to seek more directly 00:12:03.340 --> 00:12:05.679 to working class concerns again. OK, like how? 00:12:05.759 --> 00:12:07.720 Can you give an example of reframing a policy? 00:12:08.100 --> 00:12:09.700 The main suggestion was around the Green New 00:12:09.700 --> 00:12:12.419 Deal. Instead of framing it primarily as an environmental 00:12:12.419 --> 00:12:15.220 or energy policy, sell it almost exclusively 00:12:15.220 --> 00:12:18.000 as a blue collar jobs program. Really hammer 00:12:18.000 --> 00:12:20.980 home the jobs in manufacturing, installing, maintaining 00:12:20.980 --> 00:12:23.159 all that renewable energy equipment. Speak that 00:12:23.159 --> 00:12:25.299 language. Makes sense. And to tackle the rising 00:12:25.299 --> 00:12:28.259 prices problem directly. Yeah, the sources suggested 00:12:28.259 --> 00:12:31.299 a pretty bold antitrust approach. Propose a new 00:12:31.299 --> 00:12:34.740 law aimed at breaking up huge companies specifically, 00:12:35.240 --> 00:12:37.200 any company that controls more than, say, 10 00:12:37.200 --> 00:12:40.980 % of its market. The idea is simple. Force more 00:12:40.980 --> 00:12:43.679 competition. More competition should drive down 00:12:43.679 --> 00:12:46.340 prices. That's a message that hits home immediately 00:12:46.340 --> 00:12:48.379 for anyone worried about their budget. Okay, 00:12:48.659 --> 00:12:51.159 shifting gears a bit to election mechanics, there 00:12:51.159 --> 00:12:53.059 was this detail about the Department of Justice 00:12:53.059 --> 00:12:55.360 sending election monitors to California and New 00:12:55.360 --> 00:12:59.039 Jersey, which seems odd, right, since both states 00:12:59.039 --> 00:13:01.419 generally run their own elections pretty smoothly. 00:13:02.159 --> 00:13:03.879 Yeah, Democrats are definitely interpreting that, 00:13:03.960 --> 00:13:06.080 according to the sources, as a politically motivated 00:13:06.080 --> 00:13:08.990 move. They're calling it potentially a dry run 00:13:08.990 --> 00:13:12.009 for voter intimidation tactics ahead of the 2026 00:13:12.009 --> 00:13:14.210 elections. The specific fear is that a future 00:13:14.210 --> 00:13:16.570 administration could use federal authority to 00:13:16.570 --> 00:13:18.950 send uniform federal officials to polling places, 00:13:19.230 --> 00:13:21.669 maybe demanding proof of citizenship, which isn't 00:13:21.669 --> 00:13:24.370 required to vote. So what are states being advised 00:13:24.370 --> 00:13:27.049 to do? How can they prepare for or push back 00:13:27.049 --> 00:13:29.090 against that kind of federal interference if 00:13:29.090 --> 00:13:31.940 it happens in 2026? The sources laid out some 00:13:31.940 --> 00:13:35.360 really practical proactive steps. Things like 00:13:35.360 --> 00:13:37.879 heavily promoting early voting and mail -in voting 00:13:37.879 --> 00:13:40.840 to minimize polling place interactions. Creating 00:13:40.840 --> 00:13:43.580 easy to use online systems where voters can track 00:13:43.580 --> 00:13:46.039 their ballot, confirm it was received and counted. 00:13:46.080 --> 00:13:49.100 Okay. Also distributing simple voter rights cards 00:13:49.100 --> 00:13:51.559 in English and Spanish that clearly state proof 00:13:51.559 --> 00:13:55.200 of citizenship is not required. And maybe most 00:13:55.200 --> 00:13:58.399 importantly training lots of volunteers and lawyers, 00:13:58.639 --> 00:14:01.279 train them to be present, to film any potential 00:14:01.279 --> 00:14:04.659 intimidation, and, crucially, to know and cite 00:14:04.659 --> 00:14:07.080 the specific statutes that prohibit interfering 00:14:07.080 --> 00:14:09.500 with voters. The idea is to flip the script, 00:14:09.879 --> 00:14:11.559 make the potential intimidator feel like they 00:14:11.559 --> 00:14:13.539 are the ones being watched and held legally accountable. 00:14:13.639 --> 00:14:16.019 That's quite a tactical response. Now, let's 00:14:16.019 --> 00:14:18.120 wrap this up with a really interesting kind of 00:14:18.120 --> 00:14:19.919 counterintuitive piece of political history the 00:14:19.919 --> 00:14:22.139 sources dug up. The Swing State Senate record, 00:14:22.139 --> 00:14:25.750 they identified seven swing states, or SSS. Arizona, 00:14:25.950 --> 00:14:29.029 Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, 00:14:29.149 --> 00:14:31.350 and Wisconsin. Right. And since Donald Trump 00:14:31.350 --> 00:14:33.610 took office in 2017, there have been 21 Senate 00:14:33.610 --> 00:14:37.129 races held in just those seven key states. Now, 00:14:37.610 --> 00:14:39.549 you'd probably expect the results to be pretty 00:14:39.549 --> 00:14:41.730 close, right? Maybe 11 -10, one way or the other. 00:14:41.789 --> 00:14:44.190 Yeah. Seems logical for swing states. But the 00:14:44.190 --> 00:14:47.409 actual record is, well, it's shocking. Democrats 00:14:47.409 --> 00:14:51.370 have won 17 of those 21 races. Republicans have 00:14:51.370 --> 00:14:54.100 won only four. That means Republicans are batting 00:14:54.100 --> 00:14:57.620 just .190 in Senate races in those competitive 00:14:57.620 --> 00:15:01.480 states during the Trump era. Wow, 17 to 4. That 00:15:01.480 --> 00:15:03.720 really changes the narrative about... those states 00:15:03.720 --> 00:15:06.480 being pure toss ups, at least for Senate races 00:15:06.480 --> 00:15:08.720 recently. How does that pattern potentially play 00:15:08.720 --> 00:15:11.700 into the 2026 Senate elections? Well, it suggests 00:15:11.700 --> 00:15:14.039 Republicans might have a deeper, more structural 00:15:14.039 --> 00:15:16.340 challenge winning these crucial statewide races 00:15:16.340 --> 00:15:18.519 than may be commonly thought, even when the national 00:15:18.519 --> 00:15:20.740 mood might seem favorable. And looking ahead 00:15:20.740 --> 00:15:24.120 to 2026, three of those seven SSS states have 00:15:24.120 --> 00:15:27.200 Senate races, Georgia, Michigan and North Carolina. 00:15:27.500 --> 00:15:29.899 Two of those are open seats. In Georgia, the 00:15:29.899 --> 00:15:32.519 Democratic incumbent, John Ossoff, is reportedly 00:15:32.519 --> 00:15:35.019 pulling ahead right now. And in North Carolina, 00:15:35.139 --> 00:15:37.639 the likely Republican candidate is Michael Watley, 00:15:37.960 --> 00:15:40.000 the former RNC chair who's never actually run 00:15:40.000 --> 00:15:42.279 for office before. He's potentially facing Roy 00:15:42.279 --> 00:15:44.299 Cooper, the former governor, who's won statewide 00:15:44.299 --> 00:15:47.759 six times. So that 17 to four historical pattern, 00:15:47.759 --> 00:15:50.600 it suggests a potentially tough fight for Republicans 00:15:50.600 --> 00:15:52.799 in those key races. Hashtag, tag, tag outro. 00:15:53.159 --> 00:15:55.899 So this deep dive really brought some sharp contrast 00:15:55.899 --> 00:15:59.429 into focus for you, our listener. the gap between 00:15:59.429 --> 00:16:01.769 you know the claimed successes of international 00:16:01.769 --> 00:16:04.730 trade trips and the very real economic squeeze 00:16:04.730 --> 00:16:07.470 being felt by folks like construction contractors 00:16:07.470 --> 00:16:10.250 back home in Pennsylvania. And we also unpack 00:16:10.250 --> 00:16:12.110 that strange political dynamic where the sheer 00:16:12.110 --> 00:16:14.190 allure of the presidency seems to make highly 00:16:14.190 --> 00:16:16.409 ambitious people overlook really powerful maybe 00:16:16.409 --> 00:16:19.090 more strategically sound political options closer 00:16:19.090 --> 00:16:21.669 to home. Choosing that long shot over a near 00:16:21.669 --> 00:16:24.210 certainty. So here's the final thought we want 00:16:24.210 --> 00:16:26.190 to leave you with something to chew on. Think 00:16:26.190 --> 00:16:29.850 about that stunning 17 to 4 Democratic lead in 00:16:29.850 --> 00:16:33.639 swing state Senate races since 2017. Now, midterms 00:16:33.639 --> 00:16:35.399 usually go against the party in the White House, 00:16:35.559 --> 00:16:38.279 right? So does this persistent pattern, this 00:16:38.279 --> 00:16:40.299 Republican underperformance in key statewide 00:16:40.299 --> 00:16:43.519 races point to maybe a deeper systemic weakness 00:16:43.519 --> 00:16:46.019 in the Trump era that might actually continue, 00:16:46.200 --> 00:16:48.320 regardless of the national mood? And what could 00:16:48.320 --> 00:16:51.200 that mean for control of the Senate come 2026? 00:16:51.539 --> 00:16:53.860 Yeah, keep that 17 to four scorecard in the back 00:16:53.860 --> 00:16:55.399 of your mind as we head into the next election 00:16:55.399 --> 00:16:57.580 cycle. It's a fascinating dynamic. We'll see 00:16:57.580 --> 00:16:59.299 you next time for the next deep dive.