WEBVTT 00:00:00.000 --> 00:00:02.839 Welcome back to the deep dive. We've got a huge 00:00:02.839 --> 00:00:06.160 stack of sources today really trying to cut through 00:00:06.160 --> 00:00:09.539 a lot of noise, geopolitics, domestic turmoil 00:00:09.539 --> 00:00:12.839 and these like massive shifts happening underneath 00:00:12.839 --> 00:00:15.259 global finance. It's a lot to cover. We're seeing 00:00:15.259 --> 00:00:18.519 everything from, you know, trade wars seemingly 00:00:18.519 --> 00:00:21.539 decided on a whim via social media to some really 00:00:21.539 --> 00:00:25.440 ugly local politics and deep structural changes 00:00:25.440 --> 00:00:27.320 in the markets. Yeah, exactly. So our mission 00:00:27.320 --> 00:00:28.940 is to kind of pull out the essential threads 00:00:28.940 --> 00:00:31.420 for you. And the core theme, really, is trying 00:00:31.420 --> 00:00:34.259 to understand these powerful systems, political, 00:00:34.560 --> 00:00:36.759 financial, what we're calling the machine. We're 00:00:36.759 --> 00:00:40.299 looking at what happens when ego, money, and 00:00:40.299 --> 00:00:42.759 algorithms start driving policy and prices. OK, 00:00:42.780 --> 00:00:45.079 let's unpack this. First up, the White House. 00:00:45.420 --> 00:00:47.640 They released this donor list for the new ballroom 00:00:47.640 --> 00:00:50.700 project, calling it, get this, semi -transparency. 00:00:50.880 --> 00:00:53.299 Semi -transparency, yeah. I mean, right off the 00:00:53.299 --> 00:00:54.579 bat, that tells you something, doesn't it? They 00:00:54.579 --> 00:00:57.640 gave us names. Right. But crucially, zero dollar 00:00:57.640 --> 00:00:59.859 amounts. You don't know who gave what. Is the 00:00:59.859 --> 00:01:03.299 list even complete? We just don't know. So impossible 00:01:03.299 --> 00:01:05.579 to really trace the influence. Pretty much. And 00:01:05.579 --> 00:01:07.459 the official line was, well, maybe the donors 00:01:07.459 --> 00:01:09.560 get their names etched on a pillar or something. 00:01:09.659 --> 00:01:12.340 Which the sources immediately called out as... 00:01:12.219 --> 00:01:13.819 you know, kind of tacky for the people's house. 00:01:14.019 --> 00:01:16.400 Tacky, yes. But more importantly, it feels like 00:01:16.400 --> 00:01:19.000 a distraction, doesn't it? It's hard to believe 00:01:19.000 --> 00:01:21.439 a little name plaque is the only motivation for 00:01:21.439 --> 00:01:23.879 these huge donations. No kidding. I mean, just 00:01:23.879 --> 00:01:26.400 running down the names is like a master class 00:01:26.400 --> 00:01:29.180 in potential influence. You've got the huge tech 00:01:29.180 --> 00:01:33.219 companies, Amazon, Google, Metta, Microsoft. 00:01:33.459 --> 00:01:36.099 Mm -hmm. And what do they want? Continued federal 00:01:36.099 --> 00:01:39.500 contracts, right? AWS cloud stuff, AI development, 00:01:39.620 --> 00:01:42.640 software deals. Keep that pipeline open. Definitely. 00:01:42.780 --> 00:01:44.760 And then they're the policy place. The Adelson 00:01:44.760 --> 00:01:47.799 Family Foundation clearly focused on Middle East 00:01:47.799 --> 00:01:50.819 policy. Sure. And Altria Group, Reynolds American, 00:01:50.879 --> 00:01:52.959 the tobacco giants, they're obviously interested 00:01:52.959 --> 00:01:56.239 in limiting oversight on e -cigarettes, maybe 00:01:56.239 --> 00:01:58.400 easing up regulations on flavored tobacco. And 00:01:58.400 --> 00:02:01.459 a huge showing from crypto. Coinbase, Ripple, 00:02:01.719 --> 00:02:04.680 Tether, the Winklevosses. All singing from the 00:02:04.680 --> 00:02:07.799 same hymn sheet. Keep crypto unregulated. Protect 00:02:07.799 --> 00:02:09.699 their market share. Then you've got Lockheed 00:02:09.699 --> 00:02:13.580 Martin. Caterpillar, defense contracts, infrastructure 00:02:13.580 --> 00:02:16.379 spending. Yeah. And this is why the sources argue 00:02:16.379 --> 00:02:19.120 the outrage is, well, legitimate. Even if you 00:02:19.120 --> 00:02:22.919 assume no direct, explicit quid pro quo, it's 00:02:22.919 --> 00:02:24.919 almost impossible for someone putting that kind 00:02:24.919 --> 00:02:26.900 of cash into the White House structure itself 00:02:26.900 --> 00:02:29.180 not to create a conflict of interest down the 00:02:29.180 --> 00:02:31.419 line. How can it not? And it wasn't just the 00:02:31.419 --> 00:02:33.900 lack of transparency. The sources also point 00:02:33.900 --> 00:02:37.659 to, like, outright lies about the project and 00:02:37.659 --> 00:02:39.939 the incredible speed. Exactly. Remember, it was 00:02:39.939 --> 00:02:42.599 first pitched as, you know, maybe freestanding 00:02:42.599 --> 00:02:44.879 or just a small tweak to the east wing. And then 00:02:44.879 --> 00:02:47.419 the whole wing got leveled. That's a fundamentally 00:02:47.419 --> 00:02:50.719 different, much bigger project. So why the insane 00:02:50.719 --> 00:02:53.560 rush to get it done? If it's just a vanity project, 00:02:53.580 --> 00:02:56.060 it could wait. Well, the sources float two main 00:02:56.060 --> 00:02:59.460 theories. The maybe more charitable one is that 00:02:59.460 --> 00:03:01.879 the president is just high energy, impulsive. 00:03:02.080 --> 00:03:04.740 One analyst called him walking id. Can't delay. 00:03:04.680 --> 00:03:07.620 gratification. Okay, but what's the less charitable 00:03:07.620 --> 00:03:10.879 theory, the darker one? The darker theory is 00:03:10.879 --> 00:03:14.400 that the room is actually needed urgently for 00:03:14.400 --> 00:03:17.520 grifting purposes. Grifting? Yeah, for holding 00:03:17.520 --> 00:03:20.520 a large high -dollar fundraising events for his 00:03:20.520 --> 00:03:23.860 pace or maybe his future library inside the White 00:03:23.860 --> 00:03:27.099 House itself, collecting big donations monthly 00:03:27.099 --> 00:03:30.120 before his term potentially ends. Wow, so if 00:03:30.120 --> 00:03:32.560 that's the case you need the room now. you need 00:03:32.560 --> 00:03:35.879 it operational immediately for that kind of urgent 00:03:35.879 --> 00:03:38.039 revenue stream. And just to kind of underline 00:03:38.039 --> 00:03:41.080 the self -aggrandizement aspect, the White House 00:03:41.080 --> 00:03:44.099 website actually updated its official major events 00:03:44.099 --> 00:03:47.080 timeline to include the ballroom. right alongside 00:03:47.080 --> 00:03:49.719 five supposed achievements of the current administration, 00:03:50.479 --> 00:03:53.419 and four completely false smears against Democrats. 00:03:53.680 --> 00:03:56.580 False smears? Like what? The source lists them. 00:03:56.979 --> 00:03:59.199 Clinton Alinsky, something false about Obama 00:03:59.199 --> 00:04:01.539 and the Muslim Brotherhood, Biden and Trans Visibility 00:04:01.539 --> 00:04:04.439 Day also false, and Hunter Biden cocaine, again, 00:04:04.580 --> 00:04:06.159 flagged as false. So they're using the official 00:04:06.159 --> 00:04:08.680 White House record to push campaign talking points 00:04:08.680 --> 00:04:11.349 and Well, falsehoods, which really suggests this 00:04:11.349 --> 00:04:13.590 isn't about history. It's about projecting power 00:04:13.590 --> 00:04:16.670 now and kind of rewriting history as it happens. 00:04:17.009 --> 00:04:19.870 OK, speaking of ego driving policy, let's talk 00:04:19.870 --> 00:04:23.290 trade. This abrupt termination of trade talks 00:04:23.290 --> 00:04:27.370 with Canada yesterday. The reason is. Well, it's 00:04:27.370 --> 00:04:29.930 something else. It really is staggering. According 00:04:29.930 --> 00:04:32.629 to the Globe and Mail, the Canadian paper, a 00:04:32.629 --> 00:04:35.829 deal was essentially done like all but signed 00:04:35.829 --> 00:04:38.089 staffers just waiting for the ink. pretty much 00:04:38.089 --> 00:04:40.009 ready to announce and then the whole thing just 00:04:41.430 --> 00:04:43.610 Collapses. Because of what? Because of a political 00:04:43.610 --> 00:04:46.230 ad running in Ontario. Not even nationally in 00:04:46.230 --> 00:04:49.069 Canada, but in Ontario. Yeah, run by the premier 00:04:49.069 --> 00:04:51.430 there, Doug Ford. And the ad used a clip from 00:04:51.430 --> 00:04:55.209 a 1987 speech by Ronald Reagan. Ronald Reagan, 00:04:55.290 --> 00:04:57.290 what was he saying? Arguing against tariffs. 00:04:57.750 --> 00:05:00.170 The sources confirm Reagan and the GOP back in 00:05:00.170 --> 00:05:02.810 the 80s were strongly anti -protectionist. Reagan 00:05:02.810 --> 00:05:05.110 warned back then that tariffs might feel good 00:05:05.110 --> 00:05:07.750 short -term, but long -term they hurt every American 00:05:07.750 --> 00:05:10.250 worker and consumer. He said they lead to retention. 00:05:10.189 --> 00:05:13.430 retaliation, fierce trade wars, shrinking markets, 00:05:13.649 --> 00:05:16.110 the whole classic argument against them. Wait, 00:05:16.170 --> 00:05:19.569 wait. So a massive international trade deal impacting 00:05:19.569 --> 00:05:22.970 billions gets torpedoed because the U .S. president 00:05:22.970 --> 00:05:26.269 got mad about a 37 -year -old Reagan speech being 00:05:26.269 --> 00:05:28.670 used in a Canadian provincial ad. That seems 00:05:28.670 --> 00:05:31.629 to be exactly it. The fragility is. Well, it's 00:05:31.629 --> 00:05:33.670 remarkable. What was the official reaction? The 00:05:33.670 --> 00:05:36.170 social media post called the ad fraudulently 00:05:36.170 --> 00:05:39.920 used, labeled it fake, and then just bang. Trade 00:05:39.920 --> 00:05:42.300 negotiations with Canada are hereby terminated. 00:05:42.420 --> 00:05:45.019 Wow. Now, did the Reagan Foundation object to 00:05:45.019 --> 00:05:47.180 the ad? They did. They said it misrepresented 00:05:47.180 --> 00:05:49.459 Reagan's words, and they hadn't given permission. 00:05:49.600 --> 00:05:52.060 But the source is clear. The audio itself wasn't 00:05:52.060 --> 00:05:54.680 fake, and the original speech was definitely 00:05:54.680 --> 00:05:57.680 anti -protectionist. So negotiations ended over 00:05:57.680 --> 00:06:00.399 what sounds like essentially a personal hissy 00:06:00.399 --> 00:06:03.000 fit, as the source put it, aimed at a provincial 00:06:03.000 --> 00:06:05.220 premier. That's the analysis, yeah. It seems 00:06:05.220 --> 00:06:08.220 Canada's PM, Mark Carney, is now expected to 00:06:08.220 --> 00:06:10.259 be, you know, know, the adult in the room. Like 00:06:10.259 --> 00:06:12.680 Zelensky having to manage similar outbursts. 00:06:12.779 --> 00:06:14.899 Exactly. Find a way to smooth it over diplomatically. 00:06:15.019 --> 00:06:17.500 The big takeaway is just how much major policy 00:06:17.500 --> 00:06:22.060 seems hostage to personal peak and instant reactions. 00:06:22.500 --> 00:06:25.939 And that instability, that sort of chaos at the 00:06:25.939 --> 00:06:29.279 top seems mirrored locally, too. Let's talk about 00:06:29.279 --> 00:06:32.199 the New York City mayoral race. Sources are calling 00:06:32.199 --> 00:06:34.639 it basically rock bottom. Oh, it's gotten incredibly 00:06:34.639 --> 00:06:37.600 nasty. The second debate. Andrew Cuomo, running 00:06:37.600 --> 00:06:40.079 as an independent, and Curtis Sliwa, the Republican. 00:06:40.079 --> 00:06:42.680 Yeah. They apparently just spent the whole time 00:06:42.680 --> 00:06:46.279 attacking the Democrat frontrunner, Zoran Mumdani. 00:06:46.699 --> 00:06:49.660 And Mumdani. He hit back, apparently invited 00:06:49.660 --> 00:06:52.079 one of Cuomo's sexual harassment accusers to 00:06:52.079 --> 00:06:56.040 sit in the audience. So yeah, ugly. And then 00:06:56.040 --> 00:06:58.579 Mayor Eric Adams jumped in. He did. He endorsed 00:06:58.579 --> 00:07:01.699 Cuomo, which is interesting because As the source 00:07:01.699 --> 00:07:04.759 rather bluntly puts it, Adams himself is about 00:07:04.759 --> 00:07:07.639 as popular as Athlete's Foot right now. So the 00:07:07.639 --> 00:07:10.019 endorsement might actually hurt Cuomo. The analysis 00:07:10.019 --> 00:07:11.860 suggests it very well could, yeah. Doesn't seem 00:07:11.860 --> 00:07:13.879 like a plus. But things got even worse, didn't 00:07:13.879 --> 00:07:16.639 they, Cuomo on that radio show? Yeah, that was 00:07:16.639 --> 00:07:19.379 really something. He was on a right -wing show, 00:07:19.420 --> 00:07:22.019 and the host made this outrageous comment suggesting 00:07:22.019 --> 00:07:24.600 Mom Donnie would be, quote, cheering if another 00:07:24.600 --> 00:07:27.639 9 -11 happened. Cheering. And Cuomo apparently 00:07:27.639 --> 00:07:31.089 laughed. seemed to agree and said, that's another 00:07:31.089 --> 00:07:33.939 problem. Indefensible. You'd think that would 00:07:33.939 --> 00:07:36.600 be the low point. But then came the ad. The AI 00:07:36.600 --> 00:07:39.920 ad. The AI ad. His campaign posted it, then quickly 00:07:39.920 --> 00:07:42.399 deleted it. The source called it unbelievable, 00:07:42.920 --> 00:07:45.620 compared it directly to the racist 1988 Willie 00:07:45.620 --> 00:07:48.279 Horton ad, said it was out and out bigotry. It 00:07:48.279 --> 00:07:51.300 was actually in it. It was pure race baiting, 00:07:51.420 --> 00:07:53.420 according to the description. Started showing 00:07:53.420 --> 00:07:56.519 Mom Donnie gorging himself on rice, playing on 00:07:56.519 --> 00:07:59.500 ethnic stereotypes right away. Then it cycled 00:07:59.500 --> 00:08:01.459 through these supposed New Yorkers identified 00:08:01.459 --> 00:08:03.819 sp - Specifically as an Italian wife beater, 00:08:04.240 --> 00:08:07.259 a black shoplifter, a Latino gang member, a black 00:08:07.259 --> 00:08:10.379 pimp. All apparently thrilled they could commit 00:08:10.379 --> 00:08:13.399 crimes under Mom Donnie. That's just blatant, 00:08:13.839 --> 00:08:15.759 reprehensible as the source says. What's the 00:08:15.759 --> 00:08:17.600 strategy there? Is there even a strategy? Well, 00:08:17.800 --> 00:08:20.300 the analysis basically calls it pure desperation. 00:08:20.800 --> 00:08:22.899 Cuomo seems to be trying everything to peel off 00:08:22.899 --> 00:08:25.399 some of Curtis Sliwa's conservative, maybe fear 00:08:25.399 --> 00:08:27.699 -driven voters. But does the math even work for 00:08:27.699 --> 00:08:30.240 him? The sources say no. The path to victory 00:08:30.240 --> 00:08:33.399 just isn't there with that approach, which makes 00:08:33.399 --> 00:08:35.960 resorting to this kind of AI generated bigotry 00:08:35.960 --> 00:08:40.080 seem even more cynical and strategically bankrupt. 00:08:40.360 --> 00:08:43.080 It's like the ego machine sacrificing any decency 00:08:43.080 --> 00:08:47.000 for a long shot. So we've seen ego level a White 00:08:47.000 --> 00:08:50.340 House wing crash trade talks. But what happens 00:08:50.340 --> 00:08:53.539 when that very human chaos runs into systems 00:08:53.539 --> 00:08:57.080 that are Well, not human at all. Let's shift 00:08:57.080 --> 00:08:59.000 to the financial machine. Reminds me of that 00:08:59.000 --> 00:09:01.919 old Paul Simon line. Staccato signals of constant 00:09:01.919 --> 00:09:04.279 information, a loose affiliation of millionaires 00:09:04.279 --> 00:09:06.179 and billionaires. That's the one. Still fits, 00:09:06.460 --> 00:09:08.200 but the loose affiliation looks really different 00:09:08.200 --> 00:09:09.960 now, doesn't it? Profoundly different. There's 00:09:09.960 --> 00:09:12.159 been this huge structural shift in the U .S. 00:09:12.340 --> 00:09:14.519 stock market over, say, the last 20 years. Think 00:09:14.519 --> 00:09:17.500 back to 2005. Active fund managers, stock pickers, 00:09:17.700 --> 00:09:19.919 controlled over 75 percent of mutual fund money. 00:09:20.019 --> 00:09:22.809 And today. Today, it's less than 50%. All that 00:09:22.809 --> 00:09:25.169 money flowed into passive index funds, and really 00:09:25.169 --> 00:09:27.590 importantly, into quant -driven strategies. Quant 00:09:27.590 --> 00:09:30.830 -driven, like algorithms. Exactly. Factor ETFs, 00:09:31.129 --> 00:09:33.429 multi -strategy hedge funds, high -frequency 00:09:33.429 --> 00:09:36.789 trading bots. These systems look for persistent 00:09:36.789 --> 00:09:39.870 factors that drive returns. And the biggest winner 00:09:39.870 --> 00:09:43.690 from this shift, momentum. Momentum, just buying 00:09:43.690 --> 00:09:45.470 what's going up, selling what's going down. Simple 00:09:45.470 --> 00:09:48.190 idea. But it works over time. It has historically 00:09:48.190 --> 00:09:50.889 generated positive returns, yes. And now you 00:09:50.889 --> 00:09:53.570 have trillions of dollars in automated systems 00:09:53.570 --> 00:09:56.669 designed specifically to capture that momentum 00:09:56.669 --> 00:09:59.230 premium. Which changes things. It fundamentally 00:09:59.230 --> 00:10:02.110 changes the market. Because once you start systematically 00:10:02.110 --> 00:10:05.470 exploiting a factor like momentum, the act of 00:10:05.470 --> 00:10:07.649 exploiting it actually reinforces it. The system 00:10:07.649 --> 00:10:09.710 becomes different. OK, this sounds like we're 00:10:09.710 --> 00:10:11.950 getting into George Soros territory. His idea... 00:10:11.909 --> 00:10:14.429 of reflexivity. Precisely. Saurus's general theory 00:10:14.429 --> 00:10:16.929 of reflexivity. It's this crucial concept, a 00:10:16.929 --> 00:10:19.669 two -way feedback loop. How does it work? So 00:10:19.669 --> 00:10:22.750 participants' biases and perceptions affect prices. 00:10:23.090 --> 00:10:25.309 People believe tech will go up, so they buy tech, 00:10:25.429 --> 00:10:28.169 pushing prices up. That's step one. But then 00:10:28.169 --> 00:10:32.090 step two is crucial. Those rising prices then 00:10:32.090 --> 00:10:34.990 feedback and change or reinforce the original 00:10:34.990 --> 00:10:37.970 perception. See? Tech is going up. I was right. 00:10:38.269 --> 00:10:41.129 So the act of betting on momentum makes momentum 00:10:41.129 --> 00:10:44.230 stronger. The algorithms chasing it actually 00:10:44.230 --> 00:10:47.149 create more of it. You got it. The algorithmic 00:10:47.149 --> 00:10:49.549 machine feeds on itself. It's a self -fulfilling 00:10:49.549 --> 00:10:52.250 prophecy to an extent. But here's the danger, 00:10:52.330 --> 00:10:54.490 the consequence that the source is warned about. 00:10:55.210 --> 00:10:57.490 This concentration of money, all chasing the 00:10:57.490 --> 00:11:00.570 same factor, amplified by reflexivity, creates 00:11:00.570 --> 00:11:03.850 these huge pockets of instability. And eventually 00:11:03.850 --> 00:11:06.669 you get momentum crashes. Where everyone runs 00:11:06.669 --> 00:11:08.889 for the exit at the same time. Exactly. The system 00:11:08.889 --> 00:11:10.830 becomes fragile because everyone's on the same 00:11:10.830 --> 00:11:12.950 side of the boat. It highlights that markets 00:11:12.950 --> 00:11:15.850 are these complex adaptive systems driven by 00:11:15.850 --> 00:11:18.289 feedback loops and bursts of collective behavior, 00:11:18.629 --> 00:11:20.950 not just rational analysis of company earnings. 00:11:21.029 --> 00:11:22.769 Which makes understanding the structure maybe 00:11:22.769 --> 00:11:24.649 more important than predicting the next data 00:11:24.649 --> 00:11:27.490 point. Speeding of data points, we finally got 00:11:27.490 --> 00:11:30.490 the CPI inflation report yesterday. It was delayed, 00:11:30.570 --> 00:11:32.129 right? Yeah, delayed by the government shut down 00:11:32.129 --> 00:11:34.419 the second longest one ever, apparently. So what 00:11:34.419 --> 00:11:36.720 did the numbers show? Overall, maybe a touch 00:11:36.720 --> 00:11:39.039 cooler than feared. Year -over -year headline 00:11:39.039 --> 00:11:42.679 CPI was 3%, up a bit from August, but slightly 00:11:42.679 --> 00:11:45.899 under what people expected. And core CPI? Without 00:11:45.899 --> 00:11:47.940 food and energy? That actually eased a little, 00:11:48.100 --> 00:11:52.980 down to 3 % from 3 .1%. So moving slightly in 00:11:52.980 --> 00:11:55.559 the right direction, maybe. Any details stand 00:11:55.559 --> 00:11:57.820 out? Yeah, the shelter component housing costs 00:11:57.820 --> 00:12:00.379 cooled off quite a bit. Owner's equivalent rent 00:12:00.379 --> 00:12:03.580 had its smallest monthly game since early 2021. 00:12:03.940 --> 00:12:06.320 That's encouraging. But there's always a but. 00:12:06.460 --> 00:12:09.039 But we are seeing things like apparel and household 00:12:09.039 --> 00:12:11.740 furnishings ticking up. The sources suggest that's 00:12:11.740 --> 00:12:14.600 likely the tariff pass through starting to bite. 00:12:14.980 --> 00:12:17.100 The costs are getting passed to consumers. OK, 00:12:17.279 --> 00:12:19.139 so mixed signals. But you mentioned something 00:12:19.139 --> 00:12:21.879 crucial about this report. Yes. And this is the 00:12:21.879 --> 00:12:23.679 really critical warning coming from the economists 00:12:23.679 --> 00:12:26.500 in our sources. You need to hear this. This CPI 00:12:26.500 --> 00:12:29.460 report is probably the last solid quality report 00:12:29.460 --> 00:12:31.299 we're going to get for a while. Last solid one. 00:12:31.419 --> 00:12:35.200 Why? Until when? Until maybe early next spring 00:12:35.200 --> 00:12:37.539 because the ongoing government shutdown means 00:12:37.539 --> 00:12:40.620 the Bureau of Labor Statistics, the BLS, they 00:12:40.620 --> 00:12:42.799 just don't have the staff or resources. So they 00:12:42.799 --> 00:12:44.940 can't collect the data properly. Right. They'll 00:12:44.940 --> 00:12:49.080 be forced to basically impute or rather guess 00:12:49.080 --> 00:12:51.740 estimates for the next few months. They won't 00:12:51.740 --> 00:12:54.139 have the detailed on the ground data they need 00:12:54.139 --> 00:12:57.179 to calculate it accurately. Hold on. So. The 00:12:57.179 --> 00:12:59.879 BLS might be guessing inflation numbers, and 00:12:59.879 --> 00:13:02.340 the Federal Reserve relies heavily on those numbers 00:13:02.340 --> 00:13:04.860 to set interest rate policy. That's the potential 00:13:04.860 --> 00:13:07.820 systemic risk right there. You have policy decisions 00:13:07.820 --> 00:13:10.600 potentially based on, well, guesstimates. Feeding 00:13:10.600 --> 00:13:12.480 into a market structure that you just described 00:13:12.480 --> 00:13:15.120 is already potentially unstable and reflexive. 00:13:15.379 --> 00:13:18.620 Exactly. Flawed data, fragile structure. And 00:13:18.620 --> 00:13:20.600 despite inflation still being at 3%, that's a 00:13:20.600 --> 00:13:23.299 full point above the Fed's 2 % target. The market 00:13:23.299 --> 00:13:25.500 is still pricing in a Fed rate cut next week. 00:13:25.559 --> 00:13:27.929 Which tells you why. What? It tells you the market's 00:13:27.929 --> 00:13:30.789 anticipation. The structural expectation of future 00:13:30.789 --> 00:13:33.590 Fed action and money flows is driving things 00:13:33.590 --> 00:13:36.450 more than the actual possibly flawed current 00:13:36.450 --> 00:13:39.490 data. OK, so wrapping this up, we've really covered 00:13:39.490 --> 00:13:42.269 a lot. The ego machine where politics gets driven 00:13:42.269 --> 00:13:45.970 by personal spats, vanity, even outright bigotry. 00:13:46.129 --> 00:13:49.350 And the algorithmic machine in finance, where 00:13:49.350 --> 00:13:52.009 market structure itself, these reflexive feedback 00:13:52.009 --> 00:13:54.690 loops, are creating new kinds of instability. 00:13:54.960 --> 00:13:57.120 It feels like in both these complex systems, 00:13:57.399 --> 00:14:00.059 politics and markets, trying to predict the next 00:14:00.059 --> 00:14:02.860 specific event, the next tweet, the next CPI 00:14:02.860 --> 00:14:05.200 print is maybe less important than understanding 00:14:05.200 --> 00:14:07.330 the underlying structure. That's what the sources 00:14:07.330 --> 00:14:09.809 suggest. Success isn't about prediction. It's 00:14:09.809 --> 00:14:11.529 about observing that structure, understanding 00:14:11.529 --> 00:14:14.169 the dynamics, and managing risk with discipline. 00:14:14.629 --> 00:14:16.289 So the final thought for you listening to this. 00:14:16.629 --> 00:14:18.529 If our political outcomes are increasingly driven 00:14:18.529 --> 00:14:21.549 by personal impulses, this walking aid, and our 00:14:21.549 --> 00:14:23.309 market outcomes are driven by these self -feeding 00:14:23.309 --> 00:14:26.289 algorithmic loops, reflexivity, what happens 00:14:26.289 --> 00:14:28.909 when that unpredictable human element meets automated 00:14:28.909 --> 00:14:32.590 fragility? Is the real danger not any single 00:14:32.590 --> 00:14:35.100 ascent? but the structure of these powerful systems 00:14:35.100 --> 00:14:37.279 themselves. Is that the biggest systemic risk 00:14:37.279 --> 00:14:39.879 we face? Something to chew on this week.