WEBVTT 00:00:00.000 --> 00:00:03.220 Welcome to the deep dive. We've got quite a stack 00:00:03.220 --> 00:00:05.259 of source material in front of us today. It covers 00:00:05.259 --> 00:00:07.639 a lot of ground, some really controversial domestic 00:00:07.639 --> 00:00:11.160 policies, the surprising chemistry behind global 00:00:11.160 --> 00:00:14.300 supply chains, and even some hyper local politics 00:00:14.300 --> 00:00:16.339 that could decide who controls the U .S. House. 00:00:16.839 --> 00:00:19.899 So our mission, as always, is to cut through 00:00:19.899 --> 00:00:22.379 the noise, pull out the essential knowledge and 00:00:22.379 --> 00:00:24.760 get you quickly up to speed on these high impact 00:00:24.760 --> 00:00:27.179 themes. They might seem separate, but if you 00:00:27.179 --> 00:00:29.179 look closely, well, they're all really about 00:00:29.179 --> 00:00:32.420 one thing. Control. Control, yeah. Control over 00:00:32.420 --> 00:00:34.979 borders, who gets in. Control over resources, 00:00:35.299 --> 00:00:37.880 vital for industry. Exactly. And control over 00:00:37.880 --> 00:00:41.179 information, science even, and ultimately control 00:00:41.179 --> 00:00:43.420 of our political institutions. It's quite a web. 00:00:43.659 --> 00:00:45.799 It is. We're going to give you a kind of crash 00:00:45.799 --> 00:00:48.640 course on why Australia is suddenly so critical 00:00:48.640 --> 00:00:52.320 for, say, your iPhone. We'll look at some frankly 00:00:52.320 --> 00:00:54.619 insidious tactics being used against public health 00:00:54.619 --> 00:00:56.500 science right in state capitals. Things you might 00:00:56.500 --> 00:00:59.170 not even be aware are happening. Right. And why 00:00:59.170 --> 00:01:02.729 a local district attorney race in one specific 00:01:02.729 --> 00:01:05.230 county in suburban Pennsylvania, why that might 00:01:05.230 --> 00:01:07.969 be the absolute clearest early signal for the 00:01:07.969 --> 00:01:10.810 twenty twenty six midterms. OK, let's unpack 00:01:10.810 --> 00:01:13.329 this. Let's start with a big shift in U .S. immigration 00:01:13.329 --> 00:01:16.870 policy, specifically refugees. Now, the previous 00:01:16.870 --> 00:01:18.590 administration, they had a cap, right? One hundred 00:01:18.590 --> 00:01:20.310 and twenty five thousand. Yeah. And prioritize 00:01:20.310 --> 00:01:22.510 folks fleeing really dangerous situations, places 00:01:22.510 --> 00:01:26.560 like the DRC, Afghanistan. actual war zones. 00:01:26.760 --> 00:01:28.879 Well, the proposed new cap, it plummets right 00:01:28.879 --> 00:01:31.840 down to just 7 ,500 people a year. Total. Which 00:01:31.840 --> 00:01:35.079 is a massive reduction. But the really striking 00:01:35.079 --> 00:01:37.719 part is who gets those few slots. It's incredibly 00:01:37.719 --> 00:01:41.480 specific. How specific? 7 ,000 of the 7 ,500 00:01:41.480 --> 00:01:44.219 spots are reserved just for Africaners. So white 00:01:44.219 --> 00:01:46.239 South Africans who speak African. Which are notes 00:01:46.239 --> 00:01:48.680 described as, what was it, 18th century kindergarten 00:01:48.680 --> 00:01:51.040 Dutch? Something like that. Not exactly a global 00:01:51.040 --> 00:01:53.219 language. And the justification given is that 00:01:53.219 --> 00:01:55.260 they're refugees fleeing a black majority country. 00:01:55.400 --> 00:01:57.359 OK, so that's 7 ,000 slots. What about the other 00:01:57.359 --> 00:02:00.260 500? Those are set aside for white English -speaking 00:02:00.260 --> 00:02:02.459 Christians from other countries. But the definition 00:02:02.459 --> 00:02:06.060 of persecution here is stretched pretty thin, 00:02:06.379 --> 00:02:08.719 according to the sources. How so? It apparently 00:02:08.719 --> 00:02:11.740 includes people who just face criticism, or flak, 00:02:11.939 --> 00:02:14.560 as one source put it, for things like supporting 00:02:14.560 --> 00:02:18.030 the neo -Nazi AfD party in Germany. Wow. Or even 00:02:18.030 --> 00:02:20.169 being a Holocaust denier. That's in there too, 00:02:20.270 --> 00:02:22.550 yes. It's a very broad interpretation. So we 00:02:22.550 --> 00:02:25.509 should probably mention the stated goal behind 00:02:25.509 --> 00:02:27.610 this, as described in the material we reviewed. 00:02:27.729 --> 00:02:30.150 Right. The sources explicitly mentioned this 00:02:30.150 --> 00:02:34.629 political concept called MOBWay. MOA, Make America 00:02:34.629 --> 00:02:38.069 White Again. Exactly. The policy framework seems 00:02:38.069 --> 00:02:41.650 designed based on these documents to use the 00:02:41.650 --> 00:02:44.270 refugee system to, well, import white people 00:02:44.270 --> 00:02:46.870 while also increasing deportations of non -white 00:02:46.870 --> 00:02:49.189 immigrants. It's basically flipping the whole 00:02:49.189 --> 00:02:51.430 idea of refugee policy on its head, isn't it? 00:02:51.550 --> 00:02:53.710 Away from immediate danger and towards, well, 00:02:53.990 --> 00:02:56.990 something else. Precisely. And you see this clash 00:02:56.990 --> 00:03:00.349 between the political goal and the administrative 00:03:00.349 --> 00:03:02.370 reality almost immediately. You mean the plane 00:03:02.370 --> 00:03:04.520 ticket incident? Yeah, that's a perfect example. 00:03:05.000 --> 00:03:07.419 So the bureaucracy rushes to implement this, 00:03:07.939 --> 00:03:10.199 books 50 seats on commercial flights from South 00:03:10.199 --> 00:03:13.919 Africa to the US for these newly approved Afrikaner 00:03:13.919 --> 00:03:16.680 refugees. And how many showed up? Three. Just 00:03:16.680 --> 00:03:20.000 three people. Why so few? Because most of them, 00:03:20.120 --> 00:03:21.919 it turned out, weren't ready to just drop everything 00:03:21.919 --> 00:03:24.639 and flee. They wanted to sell their houses, their 00:03:24.639 --> 00:03:27.120 businesses first. Which suggests they weren't 00:03:27.120 --> 00:03:30.460 exactly refugees in the usual sense, as the source 00:03:30.460 --> 00:03:33.240 material puts it. Doesn't sound like it. Refugees 00:03:33.240 --> 00:03:35.360 typically don't have businesses and houses to 00:03:35.360 --> 00:03:38.120 sell before they evacuate a dangerous situation. 00:03:38.900 --> 00:03:41.340 These individuals seem more like planned economic 00:03:41.340 --> 00:03:43.560 migrants. And the ones who have resettled the, 00:03:43.560 --> 00:03:47.020 what, 400 or so, they're facing real challenges. 00:03:47.419 --> 00:03:49.580 Huge challenges. The cost of living is a shock, 00:03:49.759 --> 00:03:53.060 apparently, and finding work. That kindergarten 00:03:53.060 --> 00:03:55.919 Dutch isn't exactly in high demand of the U .S. 00:03:56.060 --> 00:03:58.310 job market. There was that quote from the South 00:03:58.310 --> 00:04:00.370 African farmer, Charles Kleinhouse, that really 00:04:00.370 --> 00:04:03.189 stood out. Oh yeah. His main complaint wasn't 00:04:03.189 --> 00:04:05.669 about safety or opportunity. It was about the 00:04:05.669 --> 00:04:07.750 lack of servants. He actually said, there's no 00:04:07.750 --> 00:04:10.590 kitchen lady. You do the work yourself. Incredible, 00:04:10.689 --> 00:04:13.289 isn't it? He called the move to America kind 00:04:13.289 --> 00:04:16.470 of a step backwards. Because back home, he had 00:04:16.470 --> 00:04:19.439 this lifestyle supported by cheap... domestic 00:04:19.439 --> 00:04:21.620 black labor, which obviously isn't the setup 00:04:21.620 --> 00:04:23.600 in the U .S. Right. It really makes you question 00:04:23.600 --> 00:04:26.759 the whole humanitarian aid framing of the program. 00:04:26.899 --> 00:04:29.139 Seems more like facilitating a very specific 00:04:29.139 --> 00:04:31.360 kind of emigration for a particular group. OK. 00:04:31.360 --> 00:04:33.759 So that's policy driven by identity politics. 00:04:34.180 --> 00:04:36.199 But national security also apparently hinges 00:04:36.199 --> 00:04:40.279 on chemistry. Let's talk about rare earths. Why 00:04:40.279 --> 00:04:43.199 is this suddenly such a big deal? Because CEOs 00:04:43.199 --> 00:04:45.860 are basically panicking. Yeah. You've got. leaders 00:04:45.860 --> 00:04:47.660 of major companies telling the government that 00:04:47.660 --> 00:04:49.740 if China cuts off the supply of these rare earth 00:04:49.740 --> 00:04:52.500 elements, their businesses could literally collapse. 00:04:52.800 --> 00:04:55.540 So it's a serious economic, even national security 00:04:55.540 --> 00:04:57.720 vulnerability. Absolutely. Rooted right there 00:04:57.720 --> 00:04:59.579 in the periodic table. OK, give us the quick 00:04:59.579 --> 00:05:03.560 chem 101. What exactly are rare earths? Are they 00:05:03.560 --> 00:05:07.800 rare? Are they earths? No, neither rare nor earths, 00:05:07.800 --> 00:05:10.970 really. It's a historical naming quirk. Think 00:05:10.970 --> 00:05:13.089 of that block of elements usually shown separately 00:05:13.089 --> 00:05:15.350 at the bottom of the periodic table. The lanthanides 00:05:15.350 --> 00:05:17.910 and actinides? Mostly the lanthanides, that turquoise 00:05:17.910 --> 00:05:20.730 row. They actually slot into a gap way up between 00:05:20.730 --> 00:05:25.790 element 57 lanthanum and 72 hafnium. The key 00:05:25.790 --> 00:05:28.769 thing is chemically they are incredibly similar 00:05:28.769 --> 00:05:31.220 to each other. Like sticky cousins, you said. 00:05:31.560 --> 00:05:33.699 Exactly. They have very similar electron shell 00:05:33.699 --> 00:05:36.300 structures, which makes separating them from 00:05:36.300 --> 00:05:38.600 each other extremely difficult and expensive. 00:05:38.740 --> 00:05:40.579 They just, you know, cling together in the ore. 00:05:40.699 --> 00:05:42.800 But why bother separating them if it's so hard? 00:05:42.860 --> 00:05:45.240 What makes them special? They have these really 00:05:45.240 --> 00:05:47.420 unique properties. Some are highly magnetic, 00:05:47.860 --> 00:05:50.579 but crucially, they stay magnetic even at very 00:05:50.579 --> 00:05:52.600 high temperatures. Which is important for? High 00:05:52.600 --> 00:05:55.319 -performance motors. Think electric cars, wind 00:05:55.319 --> 00:05:58.889 turbines, even jet engines. They also have weird 00:05:58.889 --> 00:06:00.990 luminescent qualities which makes them vital 00:06:00.990 --> 00:06:04.449 for things like smartphone screens TVs and other 00:06:04.449 --> 00:06:06.649 electronic displays Oh and semiconductors, too 00:06:06.649 --> 00:06:10.009 So basically the entire modern high -tech economy 00:06:10.009 --> 00:06:13.790 relies on them pretty much and for decades China 00:06:13.790 --> 00:06:16.529 invested heavily in the messy polluting process 00:06:16.529 --> 00:06:18.790 of refining them building up a near monopoly 00:06:18.790 --> 00:06:21.449 That gives them huge leverage right and this 00:06:21.449 --> 00:06:24.170 is where Australia comes in. I read that Prime 00:06:24.170 --> 00:06:28.000 Minister Albanese had to basically explain the 00:06:28.000 --> 00:06:30.740 situation in DC. Yeah, he reportedly had to make 00:06:30.740 --> 00:06:34.319 two key points. One, these elements aren't actually 00:06:34.319 --> 00:06:38.139 rare globally. And two, Australia has massive 00:06:38.139 --> 00:06:40.699 deposits of them and is very willing to mine 00:06:40.699 --> 00:06:43.379 and sell them to the US and its allies. So what's 00:06:43.379 --> 00:06:45.800 the catch? If Australia has them, why haven't 00:06:45.800 --> 00:06:48.300 we been buying them all along? The catch isn't 00:06:48.300 --> 00:06:50.810 finding them, it's refining them. Remember those 00:06:50.810 --> 00:06:53.610 sticky cousins separating them is hugely capital 00:06:53.610 --> 00:06:56.250 intensive energy guzzling and it produces a lot 00:06:56.250 --> 00:06:59.910 of nasty often radioactive waste ah So China 00:06:59.910 --> 00:07:02.029 was willing to do the dirty work. It's a long 00:07:02.029 --> 00:07:05.089 time. Yes now the u .s. Realizes the strategic 00:07:05.089 --> 00:07:08.250 risk so albanese managed to secure billions in 00:07:08.250 --> 00:07:10.269 u .s. Investment commitments to help build the 00:07:10.269 --> 00:07:12.709 necessary mines and crucially the refineries 00:07:12.709 --> 00:07:14.970 in Australia Which is a smart long -term play 00:07:14.970 --> 00:07:17.170 I guess diversify the supply chain away from 00:07:17.170 --> 00:07:19.939 China definitely smart, but it's long term Building 00:07:19.939 --> 00:07:22.480 these complex facilities takes years. It does 00:07:22.480 --> 00:07:24.579 absolutely nothing to solve the immediate panic 00:07:24.579 --> 00:07:26.699 those CEOs are feeling now. So not a quick fix. 00:07:27.139 --> 00:07:30.240 Not at all. It directly ties national security 00:07:30.240 --> 00:07:34.839 policy to massive infrastructure spending and 00:07:34.839 --> 00:07:37.399 international partnerships. And just to show 00:07:37.399 --> 00:07:40.500 how political it gets. There's apparently some... 00:07:40.490 --> 00:07:43.389 speculation, maybe half joking, maybe not, that 00:07:43.389 --> 00:07:46.269 whichever U .S. company first suggests making 00:07:46.269 --> 00:07:49.490 commemorative Trumpy coins out of, say, Turbium. 00:07:49.689 --> 00:07:52.389 Turbium, one of the rare earths. Yep. Or maybe 00:07:52.389 --> 00:07:55.550 even lobbies to rename Turbium Trumpium. Well, 00:07:55.910 --> 00:07:57.829 that company might find itself first in line 00:07:57.829 --> 00:08:00.889 for a lucrative government contract. Wow. OK. 00:08:01.069 --> 00:08:02.889 That's how high the stakes are. It really connects 00:08:02.889 --> 00:08:05.750 the dots between, you know, global trade. chemistry, 00:08:06.389 --> 00:08:08.930 and raw politics. OK, fascinating stuff. Let's 00:08:08.930 --> 00:08:10.449 bring it back home now and talk about another 00:08:10.449 --> 00:08:13.329 kind of control, the control of information specifically 00:08:13.329 --> 00:08:16.269 around science and public health. There's this 00:08:16.269 --> 00:08:18.829 really concerning trend identified in a recent 00:08:18.829 --> 00:08:21.410 study. Yeah, it's pretty alarming. Over 400 bills 00:08:21.410 --> 00:08:24.350 currently pending in state legislatures across 00:08:24.350 --> 00:08:26.990 the country that are basically attempting to 00:08:26.990 --> 00:08:30.100 repeal or undermine established science. The 00:08:30.100 --> 00:08:32.100 study called it insidious. And it's targeting 00:08:32.100 --> 00:08:34.320 areas that seem fundamental to public health, 00:08:34.500 --> 00:08:37.799 right? Like food safety. Absolutely. One big 00:08:37.799 --> 00:08:41.440 push is for raw, unpasteurized milk. You see 00:08:41.440 --> 00:08:43.639 these coordinated campaigns claiming, with no 00:08:43.639 --> 00:08:46.220 real evidence, that it treats things like asthma 00:08:46.220 --> 00:08:49.100 or allergies or eczema. But pasteurization has 00:08:49.100 --> 00:08:51.879 been standard practice for, what, a century? 00:08:52.379 --> 00:08:54.519 For safety reasons? Exactly. It kills harmful 00:08:54.519 --> 00:08:57.200 bacteria like E. coli, salmonella, listeria, 00:08:57.480 --> 00:09:00.620 but raw milk. it can sell for 10 times the price 00:09:00.620 --> 00:09:03.360 of pasteurized milk. Ah, so there's a huge profit 00:09:03.360 --> 00:09:05.519 motive. Massive profit motive combined with a 00:09:05.519 --> 00:09:07.840 lot of misinformation and some of the legislative 00:09:07.840 --> 00:09:10.450 proposals are just out there. like an Oklahoma 00:09:10.450 --> 00:09:13.990 bill, HB 1191, specifically authorizing the sale 00:09:13.990 --> 00:09:16.470 of raw donkey milk. Raw donkey milk, okay. Gets 00:09:16.470 --> 00:09:18.950 pretty specific. Another major target is water 00:09:18.950 --> 00:09:21.230 fluoridation. Which has had a huge impact on 00:09:21.230 --> 00:09:23.330 dental health, right? Absolutely huge. Just compare 00:09:23.330 --> 00:09:25.889 the teeth, as someone say, in their 70s who grew 00:09:25.889 --> 00:09:28.470 up before widespread fluoridation with a teenager 00:09:28.470 --> 00:09:31.149 today. The reduction in cavities is dramatic. 00:09:31.350 --> 00:09:33.269 It's one of the most successful, cost -effective 00:09:33.269 --> 00:09:36.129 public health measures ever. And yet, states 00:09:36.129 --> 00:09:38.490 are banning it. Florida and Utah have already 00:09:38.490 --> 00:09:41.149 passed bans, and bills are popping up elsewhere. 00:09:41.250 --> 00:09:43.870 It's chipping away at decades of progress. But 00:09:43.870 --> 00:09:46.450 the main focus of this legislative push seems 00:09:46.450 --> 00:09:49.610 to be vaccinations. Overwhelmingly. More than 00:09:49.610 --> 00:09:52.629 350 different bills are aimed squarely at vaccines. 00:09:52.889 --> 00:09:55.470 They're trying everything. Like what? Revoking 00:09:55.710 --> 00:09:59.269 mandatory vaccinations for school entry, banning 00:09:59.269 --> 00:10:01.769 employers or schools from asking about vaccination 00:10:01.769 --> 00:10:04.470 status, basically preventing any kind of discrimination 00:10:04.470 --> 00:10:07.070 against the unvaccinated. Some bills even try 00:10:07.070 --> 00:10:09.909 to create a new criminal offense called vaccine 00:10:09.909 --> 00:10:12.850 harm. Vaccine harm. Potentially targeting doctors 00:10:12.850 --> 00:10:15.389 or public health officials. And some proposals 00:10:15.389 --> 00:10:18.250 would require blood banks to test donations for 00:10:18.250 --> 00:10:20.690 evidence of vaccination, treating vaccines like 00:10:20.690 --> 00:10:23.269 contaminants. And we saw some really extreme 00:10:23.269 --> 00:10:25.330 language in those Minnesota bills. Oh, right. 00:10:25.710 --> 00:10:27.870 Multiple bills there literally designate vaccines 00:10:27.870 --> 00:10:30.549 as weapons of mass destruction, WMDs. Is this 00:10:30.549 --> 00:10:32.940 just, you know, a few? cranky parents getting 00:10:32.940 --> 00:10:36.120 organized, or is it something bigger? The sources 00:10:36.120 --> 00:10:38.519 are very clear on this. It's not just a grassroots 00:10:38.519 --> 00:10:41.620 thing. This is a well -organized, extremely well 00:10:41.620 --> 00:10:44.879 -funded movement. Yes. Many of the model bills, 00:10:44.919 --> 00:10:47.080 the language being used, it's being pushed and 00:10:47.080 --> 00:10:50.480 promoted by groups closely associated with Secretary 00:10:50.480 --> 00:10:53.580 Robert Kennedy Jr. and his anti -vaccine platform. 00:10:53.899 --> 00:10:55.820 It's a coordinated political strategy. Which 00:10:55.820 --> 00:10:58.399 creates this really difficult ethical situation, 00:10:58.559 --> 00:11:00.730 doesn't it? We saw some commentary on this. Yeah, 00:11:00.870 --> 00:11:02.909 different perspectives. Some political analysts, 00:11:03.169 --> 00:11:06.389 like JVL and the source material, argue, maybe 00:11:06.389 --> 00:11:09.750 cynically, that if states do eliminate mandatory 00:11:09.750 --> 00:11:13.669 vaccines, the resulting outbreaks, measles, polio, 00:11:13.830 --> 00:11:16.110 whatever, might be the only thing that actually 00:11:16.110 --> 00:11:18.889 educates the public and reverses the trend. A 00:11:18.889 --> 00:11:21.080 harsh lesson. But the counter -argument from 00:11:21.080 --> 00:11:23.919 someone like Sarah Longwell also cited is immediate 00:11:23.919 --> 00:11:26.320 and visceral. Right. That innocent children shouldn't 00:11:26.320 --> 00:11:28.600 have to suffer or potentially die from preventable 00:11:28.600 --> 00:11:31.120 diseases just to prove a point to adults who 00:11:31.120 --> 00:11:33.679 reject science. It's a horrible trade -off to 00:11:33.679 --> 00:11:35.820 even contemplate. But the political tactics are 00:11:35.820 --> 00:11:38.159 working because they tap into emotion. And maybe 00:11:38.159 --> 00:11:40.720 profit motives, like with raw milk, regardless 00:11:40.720 --> 00:11:42.899 of the public health consequences. Seems to be 00:11:42.899 --> 00:11:44.940 the strategy, yes. Attack the foundations of 00:11:44.940 --> 00:11:47.340 public health, state by state. OK, let's shift 00:11:47.340 --> 00:11:50.799 gears again. From controlling science to controlling 00:11:50.799 --> 00:11:54.080 political institutions themselves. We can start 00:11:54.080 --> 00:11:56.820 with a quick look at political dynasties, then 00:11:56.820 --> 00:11:59.720 really drill down into the Key House battlegrounds. 00:12:00.000 --> 00:12:01.480 Dynasties are always interesting. Look at the 00:12:01.480 --> 00:12:03.919 Sununas in New Hampshire. Right. The father was 00:12:03.919 --> 00:12:06.200 a three -term governor. Now you've got two sons, 00:12:06.460 --> 00:12:10.200 Chris and John Jr., both MIT grads deep in politics. 00:12:10.440 --> 00:12:12.580 And John Jr. is running for that open Senate 00:12:12.580 --> 00:12:15.320 seat. His opponent is Scott Brown. the former 00:12:15.320 --> 00:12:17.299 Massachusetts senator who moved to New Hampshire 00:12:17.299 --> 00:12:20.279 and is now running as a strong Trump ally. And 00:12:20.279 --> 00:12:22.899 Brown's main attack line against Sununu. Calls 00:12:22.899 --> 00:12:25.840 him a never Trump corporate lobbyist, trying 00:12:25.840 --> 00:12:27.919 to paint him as out of touch with the current 00:12:27.919 --> 00:12:31.600 Republican base. Classic. primary tactic. Meanwhile, 00:12:31.820 --> 00:12:34.100 out West, everyone's assuming Nancy Pelosi is 00:12:34.100 --> 00:12:36.600 retiring after this term. She'll be 85. Yeah. 00:12:36.600 --> 00:12:38.320 The reporting suggests she saw what happened 00:12:38.320 --> 00:12:40.620 with her friend, Dianne Feinstein, and doesn't 00:12:40.620 --> 00:12:43.320 want a similar end to her career. Plus, Pelosi 00:12:43.320 --> 00:12:45.899 herself comes from a political dynasty. Her father 00:12:45.899 --> 00:12:48.080 and brother were mayors of Baltimore, right? 00:12:48.279 --> 00:12:50.960 That's right. So her retirement opens up her 00:12:50.960 --> 00:12:54.320 incredibly safe Democratic seat, CA 11. It's 00:12:54.320 --> 00:12:57.100 like D plus 36 or something. Which means the 00:12:57.100 --> 00:12:59.759 real election is the Democratic primary. Exactly. 00:13:00.120 --> 00:13:01.899 And it's gonna be brutal. You already have prominent 00:13:01.899 --> 00:13:03.980 figures like State Senator Scott Weiner gearing 00:13:03.980 --> 00:13:06.340 up. It'll be a major fight among progressives 00:13:06.340 --> 00:13:08.889 for a very powerful seat. But for control of 00:13:08.889 --> 00:13:12.649 the entire House in 2026, the real action seems 00:13:12.649 --> 00:13:15.070 to be zeroing in on Pennsylvania. Pennsylvania 00:13:15.070 --> 00:13:18.509 is absolutely critical. Specifically, three Republican 00:13:18.509 --> 00:13:22.509 -held seats, PA -08, PA -10, and PA -07. Why 00:13:22.509 --> 00:13:24.750 those three? Because the Republican incumbents 00:13:24.750 --> 00:13:28.389 there arguably only won in 2024 because Donald 00:13:28.389 --> 00:13:30.509 Trump was at the top of the ticket. boosting 00:13:30.509 --> 00:13:33.210 turnout. His coattails were just enough. So without 00:13:33.210 --> 00:13:35.909 Trump on the ballot in the 2026 midterms, they 00:13:35.909 --> 00:13:38.649 look very vulnerable. Extremely vulnerable. And 00:13:38.649 --> 00:13:41.730 Democrats know it. Look at PAO8, Rob Bresnahan's 00:13:41.730 --> 00:13:43.610 seat. What's the angle there? Potential corruption. 00:13:43.970 --> 00:13:46.450 He apparently reported something like 600 individual 00:13:46.450 --> 00:13:48.929 stock trades just this year, raising insider 00:13:48.929 --> 00:13:51.470 trading questions. The Democrat, Scranton Mayor 00:13:51.470 --> 00:13:53.750 Paige Cognetti, is running hard on that. Her 00:13:53.750 --> 00:13:57.149 slogan is, page against the machine. Right. capping 00:13:57.149 --> 00:13:59.549 into that anti -establishment feel. Exactly. 00:13:59.970 --> 00:14:02.309 Then you have PA07, Ryan McKenzie's seat. That's 00:14:02.309 --> 00:14:04.590 being called a true toss -up. And there's a crowded 00:14:04.590 --> 00:14:07.169 Democratic primary there, too. Five candidates 00:14:07.169 --> 00:14:09.789 already filed. And they're getting support from 00:14:09.789 --> 00:14:11.629 all different corners of the party nationally. 00:14:12.169 --> 00:14:14.549 You've got unions backing Bob Brooks, while the 00:14:14.549 --> 00:14:16.570 Congressional Hispanic Caucus and EMILY's List 00:14:16.570 --> 00:14:20.000 are behind Carol O 'Bando Durstine. shows how 00:14:20.000 --> 00:14:22.019 much national focus is on flipping that seat. 00:14:22.179 --> 00:14:24.659 But the one district that analysts seem to be 00:14:24.659 --> 00:14:27.360 watching most closely, almost as a national barometer, 00:14:27.720 --> 00:14:30.980 is PA01, Brian Fitzpatrick's seat in Bucks County. 00:14:31.179 --> 00:14:33.860 That's the one. Fitzpatrick is a moderate Republican, 00:14:34.240 --> 00:14:36.879 often seen as an endangered species. The likely 00:14:36.879 --> 00:14:39.720 Democratic challenger in 2026 is Bob Harvey, 00:14:40.019 --> 00:14:41.620 who's currently the chair of the Bucks County 00:14:41.620 --> 00:14:44.620 Commission. So a local heavyweight battle. Why 00:14:44.620 --> 00:14:46.960 is Bucks County so important nationally? Because 00:14:46.960 --> 00:14:49.399 of the demographics. Bucks County makes up about 00:14:49.399 --> 00:14:51.879 90 % of that district. And politically, it is 00:14:51.879 --> 00:14:55.159 perfectly balanced. You've got about 202 ,000 00:14:55.159 --> 00:14:59.100 registered Republicans, 192 ,000 Democrats. Pretty 00:14:59.100 --> 00:15:02.720 close. Very close. But the key group is the 85 00:15:02.720 --> 00:15:05.659 ,000 registered independents. They decide elections 00:15:05.659 --> 00:15:08.700 there. And Bucks County is seen as representing 00:15:08.700 --> 00:15:12.139 what? Suburban America. It's considered the microcosm 00:15:12.139 --> 00:15:14.960 of suburban America right now, especially those 00:15:14.960 --> 00:15:17.639 swingy, educated suburbs that shift between parties. 00:15:17.870 --> 00:15:20.870 How Bucks County votes often predicts national 00:15:20.870 --> 00:15:24.590 trends. OK, so why are we talking about the 2026 00:15:24.590 --> 00:15:27.450 race now? What's the immediate signal? The signal 00:15:27.450 --> 00:15:30.629 comes next year in the 2025 municipal elections, 00:15:31.129 --> 00:15:32.789 specifically the races for district attorney 00:15:32.789 --> 00:15:34.690 and sheriff in Bucks County. Those are normally 00:15:34.690 --> 00:15:37.450 low key local races, right? Usually, yes. But 00:15:37.450 --> 00:15:39.600 because Bucks County is this bellwether, and 00:15:39.600 --> 00:15:41.480 these are countywide positions often held by 00:15:41.480 --> 00:15:43.879 Republicans, they become incredibly important 00:15:43.879 --> 00:15:46.519 indicators. How so? If the Democrats manage to 00:15:46.519 --> 00:15:49.000 win either the D .A. or sheriff race in Bucks 00:15:49.000 --> 00:15:52.440 County in an off -year election like 2025, that 00:15:52.440 --> 00:15:55.159 would be huge. it would signal a real measurable 00:15:55.159 --> 00:15:57.659 shift to the left among those crucial suburban 00:15:57.659 --> 00:16:00.679 independent voters. So those local 2025 results, 00:16:00.679 --> 00:16:03.019 they give us the earliest, clearest read on where 00:16:03.019 --> 00:16:05.620 the suburbs might be heading for the 2026 congressional 00:16:05.620 --> 00:16:08.080 elections. Exactly. Forget the national polls 00:16:08.080 --> 00:16:10.779 for a minute. Watch the Bucks County DA race 00:16:10.779 --> 00:16:15.159 in 2025. That result will likely set the entire 00:16:15.159 --> 00:16:17.220 media narrative for the battle for the House 00:16:17.220 --> 00:16:21.049 in 2026. It's the canary in the coal mine. So 00:16:21.049 --> 00:16:24.169 what does this all mean? Well, it means the challenges 00:16:24.169 --> 00:16:26.190 are coming from all directions, don't they? We're 00:16:26.190 --> 00:16:28.610 dealing with global trade fights that boil down 00:16:28.610 --> 00:16:31.590 to like high school chemistry. Right, the rare 00:16:31.590 --> 00:16:34.289 earths. We're seeing these really organized attacks 00:16:34.289 --> 00:16:36.850 on basic science, things we thought were settled 00:16:36.850 --> 00:16:39.629 happening at the state level. Raw milk, the anti 00:16:39.629 --> 00:16:42.190 -vax bills. And the actual control of Congress, 00:16:42.450 --> 00:16:45.070 the future of national policy might hinge on 00:16:45.070 --> 00:16:47.669 who wins a local sheriff's race in one suburban 00:16:47.669 --> 00:16:50.570 county next year. It shows how interconnected 00:16:50.570 --> 00:16:52.990 everything is. Global supply chains, public health, 00:16:53.250 --> 00:16:56.250 local politics, national power. It's all a struggle 00:16:56.250 --> 00:16:59.409 for control. It really is. OK, for a final provocative 00:16:59.409 --> 00:17:01.509 thought today, let's step outside the U .S. for 00:17:01.509 --> 00:17:04.069 a moment and look at how other established democracies 00:17:04.069 --> 00:17:06.190 handle potential wrongdoing by their leaders. 00:17:06.750 --> 00:17:09.150 It provides some interesting context. Take France. 00:17:09.890 --> 00:17:12.029 Former President Nicolas Svarkozy was recently 00:17:12.029 --> 00:17:14.609 convicted of criminal conspiracy. He's actually 00:17:14.609 --> 00:17:16.710 started serving his prison sentence. And he's 00:17:16.710 --> 00:17:19.089 not the first, is he? Not even close. He's the 00:17:19.089 --> 00:17:21.009 sixth French leader to be imprisoned just since 00:17:21.009 --> 00:17:24.089 2011. Jacques Chabac, another former president, 00:17:24.430 --> 00:17:27.029 was convicted back then too. Sixth leader imprisoned 00:17:27.029 --> 00:17:30.309 in relatively recent history. That seems significant. 00:17:30.470 --> 00:17:33.609 And it's not just France. Convicting and actually 00:17:33.609 --> 00:17:35.950 jailing former heads of state or government for 00:17:35.950 --> 00:17:38.410 crimes committed in office, it's actually pretty 00:17:38.410 --> 00:17:41.170 common in dozens of countries with what most 00:17:41.170 --> 00:17:44.109 would consider mature functioning legal systems. 00:17:44.230 --> 00:17:46.769 Like where? Oh, places like Austria, Germany, 00:17:46.930 --> 00:17:51.170 Argentina, South Korea, Israel, Italy. The list 00:17:51.170 --> 00:17:53.609 goes on. If the evidence is there and the legal 00:17:53.609 --> 00:17:56.390 system works, former leaders face prosecution. 00:17:56.809 --> 00:17:59.970 So Sarkozy is in jail now. Yep. Apparently in 00:17:59.970 --> 00:18:02.569 the VIP section of La Sante prison in Paris, 00:18:03.130 --> 00:18:04.869 reports say he's only allowed three books at 00:18:04.869 --> 00:18:07.349 a time. Any idea what he's reading? One of them, 00:18:07.549 --> 00:18:09.690 rather fittingly perhaps, is The Count of Monte 00:18:09.690 --> 00:18:12.789 Cristo. So it just raises this question for you, 00:18:12.829 --> 00:18:16.410 the listener, to think about. What does it signify 00:18:16.410 --> 00:18:19.650 when this global standard exists, this expectation 00:18:19.650 --> 00:18:22.789 in many democracies that no one, not even a former 00:18:22.789 --> 00:18:25.230 president or prime minister, is truly above the 00:18:25.230 --> 00:18:27.509 law? What does the consistent application of 00:18:27.509 --> 00:18:29.769 the rule of law, even to the very top, tell us 00:18:29.769 --> 00:18:32.130 about the health or the maturity of a country's 00:18:32.130 --> 00:18:34.190 legal and political system? Exactly. Something 00:18:34.190 --> 00:18:34.750 to mull over.