Welcome back to The Deep Dive. If you're trying
to keep track of everything right now, the shutdown
deadlines, these reports about huge agency shakeups,
the trade war stuff, it feels like less a flow
of news. and more like, I don't know, a bunch
of pressure points all hitting at once. It really
is a unique moment, isn't it? You've got domestic
politics creating these immediate financial crises.
And at the same time, the actual machinery of
government is being deliberately targeted for
a rebuild. And then you throw in the global trade
situation, which is always tricky, plus an election
cycle heating up. Yeah. It's a perfect storm,
politically speaking. And it's moving fast. So
our mission today is basically to give you the
shortcut. We want to help you understand this
specific. deadlines, the operational shifts that
are really stressing the system right now. We've
gone through a pile of analysis docs covering
key dates, the plans to politicize the IRS, the
DOJ, big shifts in terrorist strategy, and even
a look at the election landscape. Yeah, this
is really an essential deep dive into those pressure
points, the ones shaping the next few months.
Let's start with the most immediate threat. that
government shutdown clock. And it feels like
it's ticking pretty fast towards, well, potential
catastrophe. Okay, section one, the shutdown
clock. First, just the context. This shutdown
is already the third longest in U .S. history.
Bronze medal, I guess. And the key thing is,
the parties don't seem to be negotiating. They're
really dug in. So what makes this different?
Well, the deadline's now. They're not just abstract
D .C. fights anymore. They're starting to hit
regular Americans, you know. personally and financially,
we've pinpointed four really crucial dates coming
up, starting like right now. Okay, first big
one. October 24th. That's the day federal employees
are set to miss their first full paycheck. And
that's immediate, immense strength. You know,
so many people live paycheck to paycheck. Yeah.
The political fallout from that could be huge.
Think about states with lots of federal workers
like Virginia. They've got a big governor's race
just two weeks after that date. Blame games will
be intense. And it's not just hardship, right?
There's a risk of actual disruption. Exactly.
We pull this from the reporting. It warns that
if air traffic controllers start calling in sick
that day, that could totally... air traffic and
freeze the economy. Wow that's a serious lever
they could pull. A powerful one right in the
middle of the travel system. But even before
the 24th there's another crisis kind of bubbling
up without a fixed date yet. the SNAP program.
New attempts. Yeah. The Secretary of Agriculture,
Brooke Rollins, stated that the program, which
feeds 42 million people, is going to run out
of money in about two weeks from when our source
material was dated. 42 million people. I mean,
that's a crisis people will absolutely notice.
And, like the analysis said, remember... in a
year. And the funding choice here is just brutal.
There's tariff income, right, which doesn't need
Congress to appropriate it. But apparently Trump
wants that money saved to pay farmers for losses
from the trade war he started, not, you know,
to feed families hit by the shutdown. Quite a
choice. OK, moving on. October 31st, Halloween.
But also also the next payday for over a million
members of the armed forces paying the military.
That's always the highest stakes political football,
isn't it? Absolutely. The administration did
this $8 billion workaround thing on October 15th,
dipping into research funds. But repeating that
kind of sleight of hand might not be possible
again. So what's the holdup? I read Senate Leader
Thune is trying to pass a standalone bill just
for military pay. daring Democrats to vote no.
Right. But the real obstacle, according to the
analysis, is House Speaker Johnson. Why him?
It all ties back to the Epstein discharge petition.
It's this procedural thing to force a vote on
releasing those sealed files. OK. Johnson is
apparently blocking the swearing in of Representative
-elect Adelita Grijalva because her signature
is the last one needed to make that petition
effective. Wait, so he's holding up military
pay. to stop a vote on the Epstein files. That's
what the analysis suggests. Essentially, yes.
Holding military pay hostage to dodge an internal
Maggier political fight over Epstein. That's
a staggering calculation. Risking one crisis
to avoid another internal one. And on that same
day, October 31st, House staffers miss a paycheck,
then Senate staffers miss one on November 5th.
So if both those happen? Well, members of Congress
are going to get an earful from the people they
rely on every single day. OK, quick transition
point here. November 1st, That's when ACA enrollment
opens, Affordable Care Act. Right. The analysis
flags this is a really symbolic moment. How so?
Because it lets voters see very personally what
the Build Back Better framework meant for them
financially. They'll be looking at their 2026
health care costs without the subsidies Democrats
fought for and want to continue. It connects
past legislation right to their wallets. Exactly.
And finally, the deadline everyone dreads, November
24th. start of Thanksgiving travel week. Oh,
boy. If the shutdown is still going, the analysis
points to potential air traffic controller sick
outs, TSA shortages. It's a recipe for chaos
during the busiest travel time. Makes the shutdown
personal for basically everyone trying to see
family. Precisely. And history matters here.
Thanksgiving travel chaos is reportedly what
forced Trump to end the longest shutdown back
in 2019. OK, let's shift gears. Section two,
internal pressures. Moving from the ticking clock
to, well, what sounds like deliberate internal
changes, reports of plans to politicize and even
weaponize parts of the bureaucracy, IRS, OMB,
DOJ. Yeah, let's start with the IRS plan. The
reported intention is to use the Criminal Investigations
Division, IRS, CI. That's the branch that goes
after big financial stuff, fraud, money laundering.
Exactly. And their agents have real power search,
seizure. The plan is apparently to use them to
go after quote -unquote enemies. And they're
trying to remove safeguards to make it easier.
That's the report. Changing rules to cut down
the levels of approval needed before a case goes
to the Justice Department. From four levels down
significantly. Plus, planning to replace the
current IRS CI chief, Guy Fico, who's a career
guy, with a loyalist. Concentrating power. Right.
And analysts worry this will cause career people
to just leave. And guess who's eager to hire
them? Private tax firms, I bet. You got it. The
big risk here, you know, is the foundation of
the U .S. tax system. It relies on people voluntarily
complying because they trust the IRS is fair.
And this puts that trust directly at risk. Fundamentally
at risk. There's even a specific target mentioned
in the reporting, George Soros and his Open Society
Foundation. A longtime conservative target. Exactly.
The alleged tactic, get a list of who OSF donates
to, pick one recipient, declare them a terrorist
group, and then charge the entire foundation
with supporting terrorism. Wow. That's creatively
terrifying, legally speaking. It is. And then
there's this weird side note from Treasury Secretary
Scott Besson, who's also acting IRS commissioner.
He apparently said, tracking left -wing financial
networks connected to Charlie Cook's assassination
is mission critical. Wait, Charlie Cook wasn't
assassinated? No, which has led to questions
about whether the IRS might be tasked with just
inventing networks out of thin air. OK, moving
to the OMB. Office of Management and Budget,
Director Russell Vaught. The description used
was absolutely giddy. Yeah, giddy about using
the shutdown itself as a tool to actively destroy
government functions and punish political enemies.
So he's not just letting it happen, he's using
it. Actively. Using it as a pretext to cut funding,
especially for blue states, even when the money
source isn't actually blocked by the shutdown,
we saw $18 billion cut for New York City infrastructure.
The Hudson Tunnel. Second half subway. $8 billion
for climate projects in California, Colorado.
$2 billion for Chicago Transit. And he also went
after Army Corps of Engineers projects. Yep,
ordered them to delay or cancel another $11 billion
in projects. Baltimore, Boston, San Francisco,
blaming the shutdown. But the analysis says that's
not true. Calls it an out -and -out lie. Says
the funding isn't blocked and the Army Corps
is military so they aren't furloughed. The key
difference this time around compared to past
shutdowns is Watt seems to have a dropped leash,
as the analysis put it, free rein to deliberately
break things. It paints a picture. Yeah. And
this fits with the Department of Justice stuff
in Virginia. It does. Acting U .S. Attorney Eric
Sabert was reportedly forced out of the Eastern
District of Virginia. Why? Apparently for refusing
to indict New York Attorney General Letitia James.
And he was replaced by Lindsay Halligan. an insurance
lawyer. Zero prosecutorial experience, according
to the reports. And she's since fired several
experienced prosecutors. Including the top two.
Right. And one of the lawyers leaving, Michael
Pennery, reportedly taped a letter to his door.
What did it say? Accused DOJ leadership of prioritizing
going after Trump's enemies over actual national
security threats. It confirms the pattern we're
seeing across these agencies. Okay, one more
domestic point before we go global. Internal
party fights. Trump endorsing a challenger to
Representative Thomas Massie in Kentucky. Yeah,
Navy SEAL Ed Galrain hasn't even officially declared
he's running yet. And Massey's reaction? Seems
unconcerned. Called Galrayne a failed candidate.
But get this. Massey's strategy, reportedly,
is to make the primary about the Epstein files.
The very thing Speaker Johnson is trying to keep
a lid on. Exactly. It aligns Massey with a lot
of MAGJ voters on that issue and puts Trump and
his chosen candidate on the potentially awkward
other side of it. Fascinating internal dynamics.
OK, section three. Global trade. and the electoral
landscape. Let's talk tariffs. It sounds like
the strategy is shifting. It's definitely evolving.
It looks like a bit of a hedge, actually. Oh,
so? Well, on one hand, the administration is
kind of tiptoeing away from some of those big
reciprocal tariffs. They're exempting dozens
of products, gold, LED lights, some chemicals.
Has a sudden change of heart. It seems timed
ahead of a big Supreme Court hearing in early
November. That case could force the administration
to pay back a lot of these levies if the court
rules against how they use those reciprocal tariffs.
So legal hedging. Makes sense. But at the same
time, they're expanding tariffs under a different
authority, Section 232 of the Trade Expansion
Act. That's the one based on national security
concerns. More established legal ground. Right.
And that's where we see new 25 percent tariffs
on trucks and parts, 10 percent on buses starting
November 1st. OK. And what's this Annex third
thing? Yeah, that's a list of products the U
.S. basically can't produce itself. Things like
coffee, cocoa, certain fruits, aircraft parts.
So the idea is maybe zero tariffs on those in
new trade deals. That seems to be the signal.
But industry groups aren't waiting. The Consumer
Brands Association, companies like Hershey needing
Cocoa Chick in the Sea needing tuna, they're
pushing for immediate exemptions now. They argue
terrorists just hike costs on necessary or healthy
imports. Makes sense. Now, the analysis draws
a contrast between how this trade strategy might
work on some countries versus, say, China. Right.
It suggests Trump's sort of bullying playbook,
which might have worked on weaker players, just
won't fly with China. Why not? Well, China's
economy is huge. It's actually surpassed the
U .S. in key areas like electric power production,
a big indicator, and President Xi has leverage.
Like what? Control over rare earth elements,
crucial for tech, dominance in lithium ion batteries,
something like 70 percent, plus lots of raw materials
for pharmaceuticals. Trump apparently already
backed down from 100 percent tariff threat on
China and had to reschedule a meeting with Xi.
And the tariff approach has hurt relationships
with allies too. Absolutely. The EU, Canada,
India, Japan, they've all been hit with tariffs
or threats. The analysis suggests this actually
makes China look like a more reliable partner
to them in the long run. That's counterproductive.
And then there's the U .S. research advantage,
places like Harvard, MIT, Stanford. Huge asset,
but the current policy of trying to keep talented
international students and researchers out She's
experts apparently see that as a major self -inflicted
wound for the US shooting ourselves in the foot
basically Okay, let's bring this all back home
the election picture Charlie Cook's analysis
He seems skeptical Republicans can hold the House.
He does, even acknowledging the aggressive gerrymandering
in red states. That might net the GOP, what,
seven or eight seats? Maybe 10, 12 more if the
Supreme Court strikes down majority minority
districts. Sounds like a lock for them, doesn't
it? You'd think. But Cook points out how high
partisanship is now. Presidential approval stays
in a narrow band. But the key is that roughly
a third of the country identifies as independent.
And those independents. Many who voted for Trump
last time are reportedly against him now, something
like two to one. And in our first past the post
system, small swings matter. Just three, five
percent can flip a lot of seats. So what's the
math cook lays out? OK, let's say the GOP nets
10 seats from gerrymandering. That puts them
at maybe 230 seats to 205 for Democrats. Still
a cushion. But. They only need to lose a net
of 13 seats among the 90 -odd swing districts
to lose control of the House entirely. 13 seats
out of 90 swing districts. That doesn't sound
impossible in a bad year. Not at all. Cook points
to wave elections like Democrats flipping 41
seats in 2018. Losing, say, 58 percent of those
swing districts, 52 out of 90, is entirely plausible
in a wave scenario. So, yeah, his conclusion
is deep skepticism about the GOP holding the
House, despite the map advantages. OK, wrapping
up, we've covered a lot of ground here. These
friction points, shut down deadlines, the moves
to politicize agencies, the global trade dance,
the election outlook. It's a remarkable convergence.
You have immediate financial deadlines threatening
stability. this rapid, deliberate effort to centralize
and politicize power, and then this complex global
and domestic electoral backdrop. And connecting
it all, you see this almost bizarre situation
where the political need to avoid one crisis
Speaker Johnson blocking the Epstein petition
could directly trigger another potentially catastrophic
one, like not paying the military on October
31st. Right. So as you, the listener, walk away
from this deep dive, here's maybe the final thought
experiment. How could a major self -inflicted
domestic failure, missing military pay, Thanksgiving
travel chaos, how could that impact how the U
.S. is seen globally? Especially by competitors
like China. Exactly. Competitors who are already
watching the U .S. arguably weaken its own institutions.
Does domestic chaos end up accelerating global
vulnerability? That's definitely something to
chew on as that shut down bug keeps ticking.