WEBVTT 00:00:00.000 --> 00:00:02.799 Welcome back to The Deep Dive. If you're trying 00:00:02.799 --> 00:00:06.240 to keep track of everything right now, the shutdown 00:00:06.240 --> 00:00:09.660 deadlines, these reports about huge agency shakeups, 00:00:09.859 --> 00:00:13.619 the trade war stuff, it feels like less a flow 00:00:13.619 --> 00:00:16.300 of news. and more like, I don't know, a bunch 00:00:16.300 --> 00:00:18.640 of pressure points all hitting at once. It really 00:00:18.640 --> 00:00:20.940 is a unique moment, isn't it? You've got domestic 00:00:20.940 --> 00:00:24.379 politics creating these immediate financial crises. 00:00:24.480 --> 00:00:27.359 And at the same time, the actual machinery of 00:00:27.359 --> 00:00:30.600 government is being deliberately targeted for 00:00:30.600 --> 00:00:32.439 a rebuild. And then you throw in the global trade 00:00:32.439 --> 00:00:35.259 situation, which is always tricky, plus an election 00:00:35.259 --> 00:00:37.460 cycle heating up. Yeah. It's a perfect storm, 00:00:37.640 --> 00:00:40.179 politically speaking. And it's moving fast. So 00:00:40.179 --> 00:00:42.039 our mission today is basically to give you the 00:00:42.039 --> 00:00:43.840 shortcut. We want to help you understand this 00:00:43.840 --> 00:00:46.100 specific. deadlines, the operational shifts that 00:00:46.100 --> 00:00:48.259 are really stressing the system right now. We've 00:00:48.259 --> 00:00:50.179 gone through a pile of analysis docs covering 00:00:50.179 --> 00:00:53.740 key dates, the plans to politicize the IRS, the 00:00:53.740 --> 00:00:57.460 DOJ, big shifts in terrorist strategy, and even 00:00:57.460 --> 00:00:59.579 a look at the election landscape. Yeah, this 00:00:59.579 --> 00:01:01.780 is really an essential deep dive into those pressure 00:01:01.780 --> 00:01:03.719 points, the ones shaping the next few months. 00:01:04.719 --> 00:01:07.739 Let's start with the most immediate threat. that 00:01:07.739 --> 00:01:09.280 government shutdown clock. And it feels like 00:01:09.280 --> 00:01:11.780 it's ticking pretty fast towards, well, potential 00:01:11.780 --> 00:01:14.140 catastrophe. Okay, section one, the shutdown 00:01:14.140 --> 00:01:18.579 clock. First, just the context. This shutdown 00:01:18.579 --> 00:01:21.180 is already the third longest in U .S. history. 00:01:21.959 --> 00:01:24.140 Bronze medal, I guess. And the key thing is, 00:01:24.239 --> 00:01:26.319 the parties don't seem to be negotiating. They're 00:01:26.319 --> 00:01:28.420 really dug in. So what makes this different? 00:01:28.540 --> 00:01:30.840 Well, the deadline's now. They're not just abstract 00:01:30.840 --> 00:01:32.959 D .C. fights anymore. They're starting to hit 00:01:32.959 --> 00:01:36.079 regular Americans, you know. personally and financially, 00:01:36.760 --> 00:01:39.299 we've pinpointed four really crucial dates coming 00:01:39.299 --> 00:01:41.840 up, starting like right now. Okay, first big 00:01:41.840 --> 00:01:45.930 one. October 24th. That's the day federal employees 00:01:45.930 --> 00:01:48.109 are set to miss their first full paycheck. And 00:01:48.109 --> 00:01:50.370 that's immediate, immense strength. You know, 00:01:50.370 --> 00:01:52.769 so many people live paycheck to paycheck. Yeah. 00:01:52.989 --> 00:01:54.870 The political fallout from that could be huge. 00:01:54.870 --> 00:01:57.109 Think about states with lots of federal workers 00:01:57.109 --> 00:01:59.209 like Virginia. They've got a big governor's race 00:01:59.209 --> 00:02:02.090 just two weeks after that date. Blame games will 00:02:02.090 --> 00:02:04.269 be intense. And it's not just hardship, right? 00:02:04.290 --> 00:02:06.629 There's a risk of actual disruption. Exactly. 00:02:06.790 --> 00:02:08.870 We pull this from the reporting. It warns that 00:02:08.870 --> 00:02:11.530 if air traffic controllers start calling in sick 00:02:11.530 --> 00:02:15.080 that day, that could totally... air traffic and 00:02:15.080 --> 00:02:17.680 freeze the economy. Wow that's a serious lever 00:02:17.680 --> 00:02:19.979 they could pull. A powerful one right in the 00:02:19.979 --> 00:02:23.199 middle of the travel system. But even before 00:02:23.199 --> 00:02:25.439 the 24th there's another crisis kind of bubbling 00:02:25.439 --> 00:02:29.729 up without a fixed date yet. the SNAP program. 00:02:29.810 --> 00:02:32.629 New attempts. Yeah. The Secretary of Agriculture, 00:02:32.870 --> 00:02:34.830 Brooke Rollins, stated that the program, which 00:02:34.830 --> 00:02:37.490 feeds 42 million people, is going to run out 00:02:37.490 --> 00:02:39.789 of money in about two weeks from when our source 00:02:39.789 --> 00:02:42.129 material was dated. 42 million people. I mean, 00:02:42.270 --> 00:02:44.530 that's a crisis people will absolutely notice. 00:02:44.830 --> 00:02:47.879 And, like the analysis said, remember... in a 00:02:47.879 --> 00:02:50.039 year. And the funding choice here is just brutal. 00:02:50.219 --> 00:02:52.379 There's tariff income, right, which doesn't need 00:02:52.379 --> 00:02:55.039 Congress to appropriate it. But apparently Trump 00:02:55.039 --> 00:02:57.819 wants that money saved to pay farmers for losses 00:02:57.819 --> 00:03:00.419 from the trade war he started, not, you know, 00:03:00.460 --> 00:03:02.759 to feed families hit by the shutdown. Quite a 00:03:02.759 --> 00:03:06.400 choice. OK, moving on. October 31st, Halloween. 00:03:07.120 --> 00:03:09.979 But also also the next payday for over a million 00:03:09.979 --> 00:03:12.219 members of the armed forces paying the military. 00:03:12.360 --> 00:03:14.159 That's always the highest stakes political football, 00:03:14.259 --> 00:03:16.550 isn't it? Absolutely. The administration did 00:03:16.550 --> 00:03:19.729 this $8 billion workaround thing on October 15th, 00:03:19.729 --> 00:03:22.949 dipping into research funds. But repeating that 00:03:22.949 --> 00:03:26.030 kind of sleight of hand might not be possible 00:03:26.030 --> 00:03:28.810 again. So what's the holdup? I read Senate Leader 00:03:28.810 --> 00:03:31.030 Thune is trying to pass a standalone bill just 00:03:31.030 --> 00:03:33.930 for military pay. daring Democrats to vote no. 00:03:34.229 --> 00:03:36.729 Right. But the real obstacle, according to the 00:03:36.729 --> 00:03:39.050 analysis, is House Speaker Johnson. Why him? 00:03:39.270 --> 00:03:42.069 It all ties back to the Epstein discharge petition. 00:03:42.729 --> 00:03:45.669 It's this procedural thing to force a vote on 00:03:45.669 --> 00:03:48.270 releasing those sealed files. OK. Johnson is 00:03:48.270 --> 00:03:50.530 apparently blocking the swearing in of Representative 00:03:50.530 --> 00:03:53.110 -elect Adelita Grijalva because her signature 00:03:53.110 --> 00:03:55.210 is the last one needed to make that petition 00:03:55.210 --> 00:03:57.629 effective. Wait, so he's holding up military 00:03:57.629 --> 00:04:00.620 pay. to stop a vote on the Epstein files. That's 00:04:00.620 --> 00:04:02.439 what the analysis suggests. Essentially, yes. 00:04:02.639 --> 00:04:05.460 Holding military pay hostage to dodge an internal 00:04:05.460 --> 00:04:07.879 Maggier political fight over Epstein. That's 00:04:07.879 --> 00:04:10.520 a staggering calculation. Risking one crisis 00:04:10.520 --> 00:04:13.960 to avoid another internal one. And on that same 00:04:13.960 --> 00:04:17.120 day, October 31st, House staffers miss a paycheck, 00:04:17.480 --> 00:04:19.899 then Senate staffers miss one on November 5th. 00:04:19.959 --> 00:04:22.079 So if both those happen? Well, members of Congress 00:04:22.079 --> 00:04:24.100 are going to get an earful from the people they 00:04:24.100 --> 00:04:26.620 rely on every single day. OK, quick transition 00:04:26.620 --> 00:04:29.550 point here. November 1st, That's when ACA enrollment 00:04:29.550 --> 00:04:33.009 opens, Affordable Care Act. Right. The analysis 00:04:33.009 --> 00:04:35.490 flags this is a really symbolic moment. How so? 00:04:35.709 --> 00:04:38.550 Because it lets voters see very personally what 00:04:38.550 --> 00:04:40.449 the Build Back Better framework meant for them 00:04:40.449 --> 00:04:43.189 financially. They'll be looking at their 2026 00:04:43.189 --> 00:04:45.589 health care costs without the subsidies Democrats 00:04:45.589 --> 00:04:47.689 fought for and want to continue. It connects 00:04:47.689 --> 00:04:50.410 past legislation right to their wallets. Exactly. 00:04:51.069 --> 00:04:53.970 And finally, the deadline everyone dreads, November 00:04:53.970 --> 00:04:57.009 24th. start of Thanksgiving travel week. Oh, 00:04:57.050 --> 00:04:59.610 boy. If the shutdown is still going, the analysis 00:04:59.610 --> 00:05:01.889 points to potential air traffic controller sick 00:05:01.889 --> 00:05:05.610 outs, TSA shortages. It's a recipe for chaos 00:05:05.610 --> 00:05:08.129 during the busiest travel time. Makes the shutdown 00:05:08.129 --> 00:05:10.269 personal for basically everyone trying to see 00:05:10.269 --> 00:05:13.490 family. Precisely. And history matters here. 00:05:13.970 --> 00:05:16.529 Thanksgiving travel chaos is reportedly what 00:05:16.529 --> 00:05:18.649 forced Trump to end the longest shutdown back 00:05:18.649 --> 00:05:22.389 in 2019. OK, let's shift gears. Section two, 00:05:23.029 --> 00:05:26.000 internal pressures. Moving from the ticking clock 00:05:26.000 --> 00:05:28.920 to, well, what sounds like deliberate internal 00:05:28.920 --> 00:05:32.040 changes, reports of plans to politicize and even 00:05:32.040 --> 00:05:35.500 weaponize parts of the bureaucracy, IRS, OMB, 00:05:35.800 --> 00:05:38.360 DOJ. Yeah, let's start with the IRS plan. The 00:05:38.360 --> 00:05:41.040 reported intention is to use the Criminal Investigations 00:05:41.040 --> 00:05:44.040 Division, IRS, CI. That's the branch that goes 00:05:44.040 --> 00:05:46.500 after big financial stuff, fraud, money laundering. 00:05:46.699 --> 00:05:49.399 Exactly. And their agents have real power search, 00:05:49.759 --> 00:05:52.500 seizure. The plan is apparently to use them to 00:05:52.500 --> 00:05:54.800 go after quote -unquote enemies. And they're 00:05:54.800 --> 00:05:56.420 trying to remove safeguards to make it easier. 00:05:56.540 --> 00:05:58.720 That's the report. Changing rules to cut down 00:05:58.720 --> 00:06:00.980 the levels of approval needed before a case goes 00:06:00.980 --> 00:06:03.300 to the Justice Department. From four levels down 00:06:03.300 --> 00:06:06.240 significantly. Plus, planning to replace the 00:06:06.240 --> 00:06:09.060 current IRS CI chief, Guy Fico, who's a career 00:06:09.060 --> 00:06:12.040 guy, with a loyalist. Concentrating power. Right. 00:06:12.420 --> 00:06:14.240 And analysts worry this will cause career people 00:06:14.240 --> 00:06:16.160 to just leave. And guess who's eager to hire 00:06:16.160 --> 00:06:19.180 them? Private tax firms, I bet. You got it. The 00:06:19.180 --> 00:06:21.660 big risk here, you know, is the foundation of 00:06:21.660 --> 00:06:24.959 the U .S. tax system. It relies on people voluntarily 00:06:24.959 --> 00:06:27.240 complying because they trust the IRS is fair. 00:06:27.480 --> 00:06:30.480 And this puts that trust directly at risk. Fundamentally 00:06:30.480 --> 00:06:33.279 at risk. There's even a specific target mentioned 00:06:33.279 --> 00:06:36.620 in the reporting, George Soros and his Open Society 00:06:36.620 --> 00:06:39.699 Foundation. A longtime conservative target. Exactly. 00:06:39.800 --> 00:06:43.540 The alleged tactic, get a list of who OSF donates 00:06:43.540 --> 00:06:46.180 to, pick one recipient, declare them a terrorist 00:06:46.180 --> 00:06:48.500 group, and then charge the entire foundation 00:06:48.500 --> 00:06:52.399 with supporting terrorism. Wow. That's creatively 00:06:52.399 --> 00:06:55.480 terrifying, legally speaking. It is. And then 00:06:55.480 --> 00:06:57.899 there's this weird side note from Treasury Secretary 00:06:57.899 --> 00:07:00.319 Scott Besson, who's also acting IRS commissioner. 00:07:00.779 --> 00:07:03.199 He apparently said, tracking left -wing financial 00:07:03.199 --> 00:07:05.480 networks connected to Charlie Cook's assassination 00:07:05.480 --> 00:07:08.759 is mission critical. Wait, Charlie Cook wasn't 00:07:08.759 --> 00:07:10.920 assassinated? No, which has led to questions 00:07:10.920 --> 00:07:13.300 about whether the IRS might be tasked with just 00:07:13.300 --> 00:07:15.680 inventing networks out of thin air. OK, moving 00:07:15.680 --> 00:07:18.449 to the OMB. Office of Management and Budget, 00:07:18.850 --> 00:07:21.529 Director Russell Vaught. The description used 00:07:21.529 --> 00:07:24.610 was absolutely giddy. Yeah, giddy about using 00:07:24.610 --> 00:07:27.490 the shutdown itself as a tool to actively destroy 00:07:27.490 --> 00:07:30.350 government functions and punish political enemies. 00:07:30.649 --> 00:07:32.389 So he's not just letting it happen, he's using 00:07:32.389 --> 00:07:35.750 it. Actively. Using it as a pretext to cut funding, 00:07:35.870 --> 00:07:38.329 especially for blue states, even when the money 00:07:38.329 --> 00:07:40.470 source isn't actually blocked by the shutdown, 00:07:40.930 --> 00:07:45.089 we saw $18 billion cut for New York City infrastructure. 00:07:45.310 --> 00:07:48.370 The Hudson Tunnel. Second half subway. $8 billion 00:07:48.370 --> 00:07:51.350 for climate projects in California, Colorado. 00:07:51.790 --> 00:07:54.490 $2 billion for Chicago Transit. And he also went 00:07:54.490 --> 00:07:56.470 after Army Corps of Engineers projects. Yep, 00:07:56.790 --> 00:07:59.490 ordered them to delay or cancel another $11 billion 00:07:59.490 --> 00:08:02.629 in projects. Baltimore, Boston, San Francisco, 00:08:02.910 --> 00:08:05.610 blaming the shutdown. But the analysis says that's 00:08:05.610 --> 00:08:08.209 not true. Calls it an out -and -out lie. Says 00:08:08.209 --> 00:08:10.089 the funding isn't blocked and the Army Corps 00:08:10.089 --> 00:08:13.019 is military so they aren't furloughed. The key 00:08:13.019 --> 00:08:14.879 difference this time around compared to past 00:08:14.879 --> 00:08:17.980 shutdowns is Watt seems to have a dropped leash, 00:08:18.259 --> 00:08:20.920 as the analysis put it, free rein to deliberately 00:08:20.920 --> 00:08:23.220 break things. It paints a picture. Yeah. And 00:08:23.220 --> 00:08:24.899 this fits with the Department of Justice stuff 00:08:24.899 --> 00:08:28.480 in Virginia. It does. Acting U .S. Attorney Eric 00:08:28.480 --> 00:08:30.920 Sabert was reportedly forced out of the Eastern 00:08:30.920 --> 00:08:34.139 District of Virginia. Why? Apparently for refusing 00:08:34.139 --> 00:08:37.080 to indict New York Attorney General Letitia James. 00:08:37.220 --> 00:08:40.730 And he was replaced by Lindsay Halligan. an insurance 00:08:40.730 --> 00:08:44.049 lawyer. Zero prosecutorial experience, according 00:08:44.049 --> 00:08:48.090 to the reports. And she's since fired several 00:08:48.090 --> 00:08:50.730 experienced prosecutors. Including the top two. 00:08:50.909 --> 00:08:53.610 Right. And one of the lawyers leaving, Michael 00:08:53.610 --> 00:08:56.669 Pennery, reportedly taped a letter to his door. 00:08:56.850 --> 00:08:59.940 What did it say? Accused DOJ leadership of prioritizing 00:08:59.940 --> 00:09:02.379 going after Trump's enemies over actual national 00:09:02.379 --> 00:09:04.919 security threats. It confirms the pattern we're 00:09:04.919 --> 00:09:07.360 seeing across these agencies. Okay, one more 00:09:07.360 --> 00:09:09.240 domestic point before we go global. Internal 00:09:09.240 --> 00:09:11.700 party fights. Trump endorsing a challenger to 00:09:11.700 --> 00:09:13.840 Representative Thomas Massie in Kentucky. Yeah, 00:09:14.039 --> 00:09:16.679 Navy SEAL Ed Galrain hasn't even officially declared 00:09:16.679 --> 00:09:19.429 he's running yet. And Massey's reaction? Seems 00:09:19.429 --> 00:09:21.730 unconcerned. Called Galrayne a failed candidate. 00:09:22.370 --> 00:09:24.929 But get this. Massey's strategy, reportedly, 00:09:25.190 --> 00:09:27.710 is to make the primary about the Epstein files. 00:09:27.929 --> 00:09:30.509 The very thing Speaker Johnson is trying to keep 00:09:30.509 --> 00:09:33.950 a lid on. Exactly. It aligns Massey with a lot 00:09:33.950 --> 00:09:37.090 of MAGJ voters on that issue and puts Trump and 00:09:37.090 --> 00:09:40.169 his chosen candidate on the potentially awkward 00:09:40.169 --> 00:09:43.129 other side of it. Fascinating internal dynamics. 00:09:43.590 --> 00:09:47.259 OK, section three. Global trade. and the electoral 00:09:47.259 --> 00:09:49.960 landscape. Let's talk tariffs. It sounds like 00:09:49.960 --> 00:09:52.399 the strategy is shifting. It's definitely evolving. 00:09:52.539 --> 00:09:54.580 It looks like a bit of a hedge, actually. Oh, 00:09:54.580 --> 00:09:57.340 so? Well, on one hand, the administration is 00:09:57.340 --> 00:09:59.379 kind of tiptoeing away from some of those big 00:09:59.379 --> 00:10:01.820 reciprocal tariffs. They're exempting dozens 00:10:01.820 --> 00:10:05.159 of products, gold, LED lights, some chemicals. 00:10:05.519 --> 00:10:07.519 Has a sudden change of heart. It seems timed 00:10:07.519 --> 00:10:09.759 ahead of a big Supreme Court hearing in early 00:10:09.759 --> 00:10:12.559 November. That case could force the administration 00:10:12.559 --> 00:10:15.240 to pay back a lot of these levies if the court 00:10:15.240 --> 00:10:17.960 rules against how they use those reciprocal tariffs. 00:10:18.299 --> 00:10:20.919 So legal hedging. Makes sense. But at the same 00:10:20.919 --> 00:10:22.840 time, they're expanding tariffs under a different 00:10:22.840 --> 00:10:25.519 authority, Section 232 of the Trade Expansion 00:10:25.519 --> 00:10:27.559 Act. That's the one based on national security 00:10:27.559 --> 00:10:29.940 concerns. More established legal ground. Right. 00:10:30.159 --> 00:10:33.340 And that's where we see new 25 percent tariffs 00:10:33.340 --> 00:10:36.399 on trucks and parts, 10 percent on buses starting 00:10:36.399 --> 00:10:38.740 November 1st. OK. And what's this Annex third 00:10:38.740 --> 00:10:41.840 thing? Yeah, that's a list of products the U 00:10:41.840 --> 00:10:44.220 .S. basically can't produce itself. Things like 00:10:44.220 --> 00:10:47.120 coffee, cocoa, certain fruits, aircraft parts. 00:10:47.480 --> 00:10:50.700 So the idea is maybe zero tariffs on those in 00:10:50.700 --> 00:10:52.679 new trade deals. That seems to be the signal. 00:10:53.019 --> 00:10:55.870 But industry groups aren't waiting. The Consumer 00:10:55.870 --> 00:10:58.190 Brands Association, companies like Hershey needing 00:10:58.190 --> 00:11:00.850 Cocoa Chick in the Sea needing tuna, they're 00:11:00.850 --> 00:11:03.190 pushing for immediate exemptions now. They argue 00:11:03.190 --> 00:11:06.389 terrorists just hike costs on necessary or healthy 00:11:06.389 --> 00:11:09.350 imports. Makes sense. Now, the analysis draws 00:11:09.350 --> 00:11:11.789 a contrast between how this trade strategy might 00:11:11.789 --> 00:11:15.210 work on some countries versus, say, China. Right. 00:11:15.710 --> 00:11:18.409 It suggests Trump's sort of bullying playbook, 00:11:18.429 --> 00:11:20.289 which might have worked on weaker players, just 00:11:20.289 --> 00:11:22.870 won't fly with China. Why not? Well, China's 00:11:22.870 --> 00:11:25.090 economy is huge. It's actually surpassed the 00:11:25.090 --> 00:11:27.730 U .S. in key areas like electric power production, 00:11:27.929 --> 00:11:31.090 a big indicator, and President Xi has leverage. 00:11:31.289 --> 00:11:33.309 Like what? Control over rare earth elements, 00:11:33.529 --> 00:11:36.070 crucial for tech, dominance in lithium ion batteries, 00:11:36.169 --> 00:11:38.570 something like 70 percent, plus lots of raw materials 00:11:38.570 --> 00:11:41.009 for pharmaceuticals. Trump apparently already 00:11:41.009 --> 00:11:42.990 backed down from 100 percent tariff threat on 00:11:42.990 --> 00:11:45.110 China and had to reschedule a meeting with Xi. 00:11:45.450 --> 00:11:47.750 And the tariff approach has hurt relationships 00:11:47.750 --> 00:11:51.330 with allies too. Absolutely. The EU, Canada, 00:11:51.669 --> 00:11:54.429 India, Japan, they've all been hit with tariffs 00:11:54.429 --> 00:11:57.409 or threats. The analysis suggests this actually 00:11:57.409 --> 00:11:59.649 makes China look like a more reliable partner 00:11:59.649 --> 00:12:01.590 to them in the long run. That's counterproductive. 00:12:01.690 --> 00:12:03.429 And then there's the U .S. research advantage, 00:12:03.509 --> 00:12:07.240 places like Harvard, MIT, Stanford. Huge asset, 00:12:07.879 --> 00:12:10.179 but the current policy of trying to keep talented 00:12:10.179 --> 00:12:13.480 international students and researchers out She's 00:12:13.480 --> 00:12:16.039 experts apparently see that as a major self -inflicted 00:12:16.039 --> 00:12:18.419 wound for the US shooting ourselves in the foot 00:12:18.419 --> 00:12:21.259 basically Okay, let's bring this all back home 00:12:21.259 --> 00:12:24.139 the election picture Charlie Cook's analysis 00:12:24.509 --> 00:12:26.649 He seems skeptical Republicans can hold the House. 00:12:26.830 --> 00:12:30.169 He does, even acknowledging the aggressive gerrymandering 00:12:30.169 --> 00:12:33.190 in red states. That might net the GOP, what, 00:12:33.549 --> 00:12:36.129 seven or eight seats? Maybe 10, 12 more if the 00:12:36.129 --> 00:12:38.110 Supreme Court strikes down majority minority 00:12:38.110 --> 00:12:40.009 districts. Sounds like a lock for them, doesn't 00:12:40.009 --> 00:12:42.590 it? You'd think. But Cook points out how high 00:12:42.590 --> 00:12:45.299 partisanship is now. Presidential approval stays 00:12:45.299 --> 00:12:47.759 in a narrow band. But the key is that roughly 00:12:47.759 --> 00:12:50.039 a third of the country identifies as independent. 00:12:50.279 --> 00:12:52.500 And those independents. Many who voted for Trump 00:12:52.500 --> 00:12:54.379 last time are reportedly against him now, something 00:12:54.379 --> 00:12:56.840 like two to one. And in our first past the post 00:12:56.840 --> 00:12:59.919 system, small swings matter. Just three, five 00:12:59.919 --> 00:13:02.259 percent can flip a lot of seats. So what's the 00:13:02.259 --> 00:13:04.940 math cook lays out? OK, let's say the GOP nets 00:13:04.940 --> 00:13:07.700 10 seats from gerrymandering. That puts them 00:13:07.700 --> 00:13:11.320 at maybe 230 seats to 205 for Democrats. Still 00:13:11.320 --> 00:13:13.710 a cushion. But. They only need to lose a net 00:13:13.710 --> 00:13:16.610 of 13 seats among the 90 -odd swing districts 00:13:16.610 --> 00:13:19.470 to lose control of the House entirely. 13 seats 00:13:19.470 --> 00:13:21.509 out of 90 swing districts. That doesn't sound 00:13:21.509 --> 00:13:24.220 impossible in a bad year. Not at all. Cook points 00:13:24.220 --> 00:13:26.779 to wave elections like Democrats flipping 41 00:13:26.779 --> 00:13:30.419 seats in 2018. Losing, say, 58 percent of those 00:13:30.419 --> 00:13:33.460 swing districts, 52 out of 90, is entirely plausible 00:13:33.460 --> 00:13:35.639 in a wave scenario. So, yeah, his conclusion 00:13:35.639 --> 00:13:37.940 is deep skepticism about the GOP holding the 00:13:37.940 --> 00:13:39.820 House, despite the map advantages. OK, wrapping 00:13:39.820 --> 00:13:41.840 up, we've covered a lot of ground here. These 00:13:41.840 --> 00:13:44.039 friction points, shut down deadlines, the moves 00:13:44.039 --> 00:13:46.480 to politicize agencies, the global trade dance, 00:13:46.559 --> 00:13:49.220 the election outlook. It's a remarkable convergence. 00:13:49.320 --> 00:13:51.740 You have immediate financial deadlines threatening 00:13:51.740 --> 00:13:55.809 stability. this rapid, deliberate effort to centralize 00:13:55.809 --> 00:13:59.230 and politicize power, and then this complex global 00:13:59.230 --> 00:14:01.970 and domestic electoral backdrop. And connecting 00:14:01.970 --> 00:14:04.789 it all, you see this almost bizarre situation 00:14:04.789 --> 00:14:08.269 where the political need to avoid one crisis 00:14:08.890 --> 00:14:11.230 Speaker Johnson blocking the Epstein petition 00:14:11.230 --> 00:14:14.370 could directly trigger another potentially catastrophic 00:14:14.370 --> 00:14:16.889 one, like not paying the military on October 00:14:16.889 --> 00:14:19.710 31st. Right. So as you, the listener, walk away 00:14:19.710 --> 00:14:21.629 from this deep dive, here's maybe the final thought 00:14:21.629 --> 00:14:25.169 experiment. How could a major self -inflicted 00:14:25.169 --> 00:14:28.529 domestic failure, missing military pay, Thanksgiving 00:14:28.529 --> 00:14:30.950 travel chaos, how could that impact how the U 00:14:30.950 --> 00:14:33.029 .S. is seen globally? Especially by competitors 00:14:33.029 --> 00:14:35.149 like China. Exactly. Competitors who are already 00:14:35.149 --> 00:14:38.009 watching the U .S. arguably weaken its own institutions. 00:14:38.250 --> 00:14:40.789 Does domestic chaos end up accelerating global 00:14:40.789 --> 00:14:42.710 vulnerability? That's definitely something to 00:14:42.710 --> 00:14:44.409 chew on as that shut down bug keeps ticking.