WEBVTT 00:00:00.000 --> 00:00:02.120 Welcome back to the deep dive. Grab a comfortable 00:00:02.120 --> 00:00:06.240 seat, because today we're really digging into 00:00:06.240 --> 00:00:08.720 this government shutdown. Yeah, it's quite something. 00:00:08.800 --> 00:00:10.919 It really is. It's grinding into its third week 00:00:10.919 --> 00:00:14.339 now. And honestly, looking at the sources, everything 00:00:14.339 --> 00:00:17.039 we thought would force some kind of action, it 00:00:17.039 --> 00:00:19.620 just hasn't. That's exactly right. And that's 00:00:19.620 --> 00:00:21.739 really our goal today for you listening. We want 00:00:21.739 --> 00:00:24.620 to get past the usual headlines. We need to dissect 00:00:24.620 --> 00:00:26.920 the actual mechanics here. What were the pressure 00:00:26.920 --> 00:00:30.600 points? specifically that military payroll deadline 00:00:30.600 --> 00:00:33.380 everyone talked about. Right. And how did the 00:00:33.380 --> 00:00:35.840 administration, well, sidestep that one, let's 00:00:35.840 --> 00:00:38.439 just say, creatively. Creatively and maybe not 00:00:38.439 --> 00:00:41.020 quite legally. We'll get into that. Then we need 00:00:41.020 --> 00:00:43.579 to look ahead. What are the next deadlines? Which 00:00:43.579 --> 00:00:45.979 ones might actually stick? And the blame game. 00:00:46.359 --> 00:00:48.280 Where does the public stand right now? We got 00:00:48.280 --> 00:00:50.899 some fresh polling data. Exactly. We're aiming 00:00:50.899 --> 00:00:54.159 to give you the full picture, the political map 00:00:54.159 --> 00:00:56.200 of this whole situation. Okay, let's unpack that 00:00:56.200 --> 00:00:58.439 first big one though. The military payroll. That 00:00:58.439 --> 00:01:00.219 was supposed to be the big lever, right? Coming 00:01:00.219 --> 00:01:02.780 up on the 15th. Everyone expected that to force 00:01:02.780 --> 00:01:05.159 some talks. Oh, absolutely. Our sources don't 00:01:05.159 --> 00:01:07.340 just call it the third rail of American politics. 00:01:07.400 --> 00:01:09.980 Yo. They add the fourth and fifth rail too. Wow. 00:01:10.239 --> 00:01:13.579 I mean, you really can't overstate how politically 00:01:13.579 --> 00:01:16.459 dangerous it is to let active duty soldiers go 00:01:16.459 --> 00:01:19.200 without pay. Especially given the political rhetoric, 00:01:19.459 --> 00:01:21.439 right? Yeah. One side constantly claiming, you 00:01:21.439 --> 00:01:23.079 know, they're the ones who really support the 00:01:23.079 --> 00:01:25.400 troop. Precisely. It was the administration's 00:01:25.400 --> 00:01:27.540 single biggest vulnerability right out of the 00:01:27.540 --> 00:01:30.989 gate. So the Democrats saw that opening. And 00:01:30.989 --> 00:01:34.010 they moved fast. They did. With a very specific 00:01:34.010 --> 00:01:36.370 bill. Just funding the military payroll. Nothing 00:01:36.370 --> 00:01:40.510 else attached. Exactly. Clean. Surgical. And 00:01:40.510 --> 00:01:42.489 that put the Republicans, particularly Trump 00:01:42.489 --> 00:01:45.450 and Speaker Johnson, in a huge bind. Why was 00:01:45.450 --> 00:01:47.510 that such a problem for them? I mean, paying 00:01:47.510 --> 00:01:49.989 the troops seems like an easy vote. Well, it 00:01:49.989 --> 00:01:53.540 was a trap. A really clever one. On a... Three 00:01:53.540 --> 00:01:55.500 different levels, according to our sources. OK, 00:01:55.500 --> 00:01:58.159 let's break those down. First, the obvious one, 00:01:58.560 --> 00:02:01.379 optics. They absolutely could not afford the 00:02:01.379 --> 00:02:03.140 message that the Democrats were the only ones 00:02:03.140 --> 00:02:05.560 looking out for military families. Right. Voting 00:02:05.560 --> 00:02:08.580 against paying the troops, even for procedural 00:02:08.580 --> 00:02:10.919 reasons. That just looks terrible. Terrible. 00:02:11.020 --> 00:02:13.120 So that's level one. Simple messaging. Makes 00:02:13.120 --> 00:02:16.060 sense. But you said three levels. The other two 00:02:16.060 --> 00:02:18.300 sound like they get into the weeds of how Congress 00:02:18.300 --> 00:02:21.460 works. They absolutely do. And they're fascinating. 00:02:21.900 --> 00:02:25.050 Reason number two. Controlling the House calendar 00:02:25.050 --> 00:02:28.789 itself. How so? To even consider that Democratic 00:02:28.789 --> 00:02:31.129 bill, Speaker Johnson would have had to call 00:02:31.129 --> 00:02:33.710 the House back into session. OK. And if the House 00:02:33.710 --> 00:02:36.030 is in session, our sources point out, they'd 00:02:36.030 --> 00:02:38.189 have to swear in Representative -elect Adelita 00:02:38.189 --> 00:02:41.189 Grishalva. Oh, and her vote matters because? 00:02:41.250 --> 00:02:43.590 Because once she's sworn in, the Democrats hit 00:02:43.590 --> 00:02:46.490 218 members. The magic number. The magic number, 00:02:46.629 --> 00:02:49.370 exactly. Enough signatures for a discharge petition. 00:02:49.569 --> 00:02:51.909 OK, let's just pause there for a second. Discharge 00:02:51.909 --> 00:02:54.250 petition. It's pretty deep inside baseball. What 00:02:54.250 --> 00:02:56.750 does that actually mean for someone listening? 00:02:57.229 --> 00:03:00.650 Right. Think of it like this. It's a way for 00:03:00.650 --> 00:03:03.409 the minority party, if they can get that simple 00:03:03.409 --> 00:03:07.129 majority of 218 votes, to basically go around 00:03:07.129 --> 00:03:10.530 the speaker. Bypass him completely. Yep. And 00:03:10.530 --> 00:03:13.729 force a specific bill onto the House floor for 00:03:13.729 --> 00:03:15.490 a vote, no matter what the leadership wants. 00:03:15.590 --> 00:03:18.050 So if the Democrats could pull that off. They 00:03:18.050 --> 00:03:20.349 could potentially force a vote on funding the 00:03:20.349 --> 00:03:22.840 entire government. Essentially seizing control 00:03:22.840 --> 00:03:25.219 of the shutdown narrative from Johnson and Trump. 00:03:25.620 --> 00:03:27.240 And the source mentioned something about the 00:03:27.240 --> 00:03:29.500 ghost of Jeffrey Epstein coming back with that 00:03:29.500 --> 00:03:32.280 petition. That adds another layer of toxicity. 00:03:32.379 --> 00:03:34.939 It does. That particular petition is tied up 00:03:34.939 --> 00:03:38.199 with some, let's say, highly controversial figures 00:03:38.199 --> 00:03:40.780 and legal issues. So some Republicans would find 00:03:40.780 --> 00:03:42.699 it politically radioactive to sign on even if 00:03:42.699 --> 00:03:45.120 they wanted the shutdown to end. Exactly. Johnson 00:03:45.120 --> 00:03:48.020 and Trump desperately want to avoid any situation 00:03:48.020 --> 00:03:50.259 where that whole mess gets dredged up again. 00:03:50.379 --> 00:03:53.319 under the media spotlight. So keeping the House 00:03:53.319 --> 00:03:56.439 adjourned avoids Grig Alva being sworn in, which 00:03:56.439 --> 00:03:58.659 prevents the discharge petition, which keeps 00:03:58.659 --> 00:04:01.139 that controversy buried. Precisely. It's all 00:04:01.139 --> 00:04:03.219 connected, which leads straight into the third 00:04:03.219 --> 00:04:05.199 reason they had to kill that payroll bill. Which 00:04:05.199 --> 00:04:07.300 is about controlling the message. Controlling 00:04:07.300 --> 00:04:10.479 the narrative, absolutely. By limiting media 00:04:10.479 --> 00:04:13.580 access to, well, the internal Republican drama. 00:04:13.919 --> 00:04:16.500 If the House isn't in session, Reporters can't 00:04:16.500 --> 00:04:18.920 just wander the halls grabbing quotes. Exactly. 00:04:18.959 --> 00:04:21.220 If the House is in session, you get wall -to 00:04:21.220 --> 00:04:23.720 -wall coverage. And that inevitably shines a 00:04:23.720 --> 00:04:26.439 light on any cracks in party discipline. Like 00:04:26.439 --> 00:04:28.779 Representative Marjorie Taylor Greene. The source 00:04:28.779 --> 00:04:31.180 mentioned her going apostate. Yeah, she's cited 00:04:31.180 --> 00:04:33.600 as one example, someone who's broken ranks on 00:04:33.600 --> 00:04:36.660 key issues. If the House is meeting, she and 00:04:36.660 --> 00:04:39.740 others like her get a huge platform. Making it 00:04:39.740 --> 00:04:42.180 much harder for Johnson and Trump to project 00:04:42.180 --> 00:04:45.319 this image of unified Republican law. leadership. 00:04:45.560 --> 00:04:48.300 Impossible, really. So avoiding that Democratic 00:04:48.300 --> 00:04:50.740 payroll bill was critical for messaging, for 00:04:50.740 --> 00:04:53.279 procedural control, and for preventing internal 00:04:53.279 --> 00:04:55.139 fights from spilling out. OK, so they had to 00:04:55.139 --> 00:04:57.240 stop the Democrats' bill. But they still had 00:04:57.240 --> 00:04:59.720 to pay the troops. The deadline was real. And 00:04:59.720 --> 00:05:01.819 this is where the administration pulls off what 00:05:01.819 --> 00:05:05.100 you call the High Wire Act. That's a good way 00:05:05.100 --> 00:05:08.939 to put it. Suddenly, they found $8 billion. Just 00:05:08.939 --> 00:05:11.439 lying around, apparently. Right. Found it between 00:05:11.439 --> 00:05:13.759 the White House couch cushions, maybe. Something 00:05:13.759 --> 00:05:15.860 like that. And this is where the whole rule of 00:05:15.860 --> 00:05:17.920 law question gets really, really interesting. 00:05:18.100 --> 00:05:20.519 Because that $8 billion wasn't just unassigned 00:05:20.519 --> 00:05:23.839 cash. Not at all. What's really striking here 00:05:23.839 --> 00:05:28.139 is the sheer boldness of it. This was money Congress 00:05:28.139 --> 00:05:30.560 had specifically appropriated given a specific 00:05:30.560 --> 00:05:33.180 job. And that job wasn't military salaries. Nope. 00:05:33.720 --> 00:05:36.120 It was for a research project. What kind of research 00:05:36.120 --> 00:05:37.939 project are we talking about? Just to give people 00:05:37.939 --> 00:05:40.040 a sense of it. Well, think about it like funds 00:05:40.040 --> 00:05:42.519 set aside for something very specific and usually 00:05:42.519 --> 00:05:45.339 long term. You know, maybe a big NASA project 00:05:45.339 --> 00:05:49.220 studying deep space. OK. Or perhaps CDC funding 00:05:49.220 --> 00:05:53.060 for research into, say, new tropical diseases. 00:05:53.540 --> 00:05:56.160 Very specific goals set by Congress. And the 00:05:56.160 --> 00:05:58.100 administration just took that money. And used 00:05:58.100 --> 00:06:01.060 it to pay the military's electric bill, essentially. 00:06:01.459 --> 00:06:04.379 Met the payroll. The source says that's not in 00:06:04.379 --> 00:06:06.959 line with what Congress intended. Which sounds 00:06:06.959 --> 00:06:09.300 like lawyers speak for for illegal. Yeah, it's 00:06:09.300 --> 00:06:11.579 a repurposing of funds that goes against the 00:06:11.579 --> 00:06:13.779 specific direction of Congress So wait a minute 00:06:13.779 --> 00:06:16.800 if it's illegal. I mean, isn't this a violation 00:06:16.800 --> 00:06:19.620 of the separation of powers? Congress controls 00:06:19.620 --> 00:06:22.319 the purse strings. It is why aren't the Democrats 00:06:22.319 --> 00:06:26.420 screaming bloody murder? Filing lawsuits isn't 00:06:26.420 --> 00:06:28.439 the whole point of a shutdown sometimes about 00:06:28.439 --> 00:06:31.319 forcing adherence to appropriation law logically. 00:06:31.360 --> 00:06:35.370 Yes, it absolutely sets a Dangerous precedent. 00:06:35.670 --> 00:06:37.449 No question. So why let him get away with it? 00:06:37.769 --> 00:06:40.810 Politics. Pure and simple. The analysis here 00:06:40.810 --> 00:06:42.649 is that Trump will get away with it. Because? 00:06:42.769 --> 00:06:45.129 Because the Democrats are incredibly unlikely 00:06:45.129 --> 00:06:47.889 to, as the source puts it, make a stink. Why 00:06:47.889 --> 00:06:49.870 not? Because nobody wants to be seen as arguing 00:06:49.870 --> 00:06:53.129 against paying the troops. Ah. So if they challenge 00:06:53.129 --> 00:06:55.589 the legality of using the $8 billion... They 00:06:55.589 --> 00:06:59.149 open themselves up to the attack. See? The Democrats 00:06:59.149 --> 00:07:01.009 want to stop our soldiers from getting paid. 00:07:01.230 --> 00:07:02.970 Even though the issue is the source of the funds, 00:07:03.029 --> 00:07:05.029 not the payment itself. Doesn't matter in the 00:07:05.029 --> 00:07:07.629 political arena. It's a brilliant move politically, 00:07:08.009 --> 00:07:10.750 legally dubious. Absolutely. But politically, 00:07:10.750 --> 00:07:14.310 it's almost unassailable. Wow. That's cynical, 00:07:14.529 --> 00:07:17.750 but undeniably effective. It neutralizes the 00:07:17.750 --> 00:07:20.430 immediate crisis, kicks the can down the road. 00:07:20.769 --> 00:07:23.170 Unassailable is the key word. They took the most 00:07:23.170 --> 00:07:26.009 acute, the most politically damaging short -term 00:07:26.009 --> 00:07:28.569 problem right off the table. OK, so they bought 00:07:28.569 --> 00:07:31.269 themselves some time. The immediate payroll crisis 00:07:31.269 --> 00:07:34.209 is averted or... at least delayed until Halloween. 00:07:34.850 --> 00:07:38.009 So where does the pressure shift now? You mentioned 00:07:38.009 --> 00:07:40.209 the White House had threatened these grandiose 00:07:40.209 --> 00:07:43.009 layoffs, but that hasn't really materialized 00:07:43.009 --> 00:07:45.410 in a big way. No. The sources say only about 00:07:45.410 --> 00:07:48.970 4 ,000 layoffs so far, which isn't insignificant 00:07:48.970 --> 00:07:50.910 for those people, but it's not enough to make 00:07:50.910 --> 00:07:53.569 the blue team sweat, as they put it. Probably 00:07:53.569 --> 00:07:55.589 just enough to say they did something. Likely. 00:07:55.709 --> 00:07:58.110 Mostly for show, perhaps, to avoid looking like 00:07:58.110 --> 00:08:00.610 Trump chickened out of the shutdown fight entirely. 00:08:01.089 --> 00:08:02.870 So if layoffs aren't the main pressure point 00:08:02.870 --> 00:08:05.329 right now, what is? It shifts. It shifts from 00:08:05.329 --> 00:08:08.230 that acute political crisis, the payroll, to 00:08:08.230 --> 00:08:11.529 more systemic grinding operational strain. the 00:08:11.529 --> 00:08:13.930 government apparatus seizing up. Exactly. And 00:08:13.930 --> 00:08:17.410 if you look at the bigger picture, two key areas 00:08:17.410 --> 00:08:20.209 are highlighted as already operating at much 00:08:20.209 --> 00:08:23.649 less than full capacity. And that creates real 00:08:23.649 --> 00:08:25.689 political risk down the line. Which areas are 00:08:25.689 --> 00:08:28.269 those? The federal courts, for one. OK. How are 00:08:28.269 --> 00:08:31.529 they impacted beyond just fewer staff working? 00:08:31.889 --> 00:08:33.809 Well, the core constitutional stuff continues. 00:08:34.250 --> 00:08:37.659 Criminal cases, urgent matters. But non -essential 00:08:37.659 --> 00:08:41.539 civil cases, filings, just piling up, grinding 00:08:41.539 --> 00:08:44.559 to a halt in many places. Leading backlogs. Massive 00:08:44.559 --> 00:08:48.039 backlogs, which means delays in justice, problems 00:08:48.039 --> 00:08:50.940 for businesses waiting on rulings. That creates 00:08:50.940 --> 00:08:53.200 pressure from lawyers, from the business community. 00:08:53.759 --> 00:08:55.899 It's a slow burn, but it builds. And the second 00:08:55.899 --> 00:08:58.700 area. The nation's air traffic control system. 00:08:59.240 --> 00:09:02.190 Ah, that one feels much more immediate. more 00:09:02.190 --> 00:09:04.730 visceral for people. It is. Now, controllers 00:09:04.730 --> 00:09:06.750 are essential employees, so they have to work. 00:09:07.090 --> 00:09:08.789 But they're working without pay. Which has got 00:09:08.789 --> 00:09:11.769 to affect morale focus. Absolutely. Plus, the 00:09:11.769 --> 00:09:14.070 pipeline for training new controllers, that's 00:09:14.070 --> 00:09:15.850 paused during the shutdown. So you have fewer 00:09:15.850 --> 00:09:18.590 people under more stress doing a critical job. 00:09:18.789 --> 00:09:21.210 That sounds like a recipe for increased risk. 00:09:21.529 --> 00:09:24.389 It is. The risk of human error goes up. Even 00:09:24.389 --> 00:09:27.009 a near -miss incident involving air traffic control 00:09:27.009 --> 00:09:29.570 that makes headlines instantly. And suddenly 00:09:29.570 --> 00:09:32.210 the shutdown isn't just some abstract political 00:09:32.210 --> 00:09:35.389 fight in D .C. It's personal. It's about safety 00:09:35.389 --> 00:09:38.090 when you fly. Exactly. That kind of operational 00:09:38.090 --> 00:09:40.970 failure, especially in the air, could generate 00:09:40.970 --> 00:09:43.370 serious, serious political heat very quickly. 00:09:43.669 --> 00:09:46.090 It could become the unexpected catalyst that 00:09:46.090 --> 00:09:48.889 forces action. So we had the slow -burn operational 00:09:48.889 --> 00:09:51.509 strain building in courts and air traffic control. 00:09:52.570 --> 00:09:54.950 Are there other hard deadlines we need to watch? 00:09:55.629 --> 00:09:57.950 Like the payroll one? Yes. The listener needs 00:09:57.950 --> 00:10:01.330 to track two specific dates coming up fast. First, 00:10:01.669 --> 00:10:03.809 the military payroll problem. It comes back around. 00:10:03.850 --> 00:10:06.889 When? October 31st. Halloween. That's the next 00:10:06.889 --> 00:10:09.629 payday. And is that $8 billion they found? Enough 00:10:09.629 --> 00:10:11.509 to cover that one, too. That's the big question. 00:10:11.710 --> 00:10:14.070 The government spends roughly $200 billion a 00:10:14.070 --> 00:10:16.889 year on military pay and benefits. That $8 million 00:10:16.889 --> 00:10:19.549 might not stretch. So they might have to go scrounging 00:10:19.549 --> 00:10:21.149 behind the White House couch cushions again. 00:10:21.279 --> 00:10:23.480 Find some more technically illegal money. Either 00:10:23.480 --> 00:10:26.279 that or they'll be forced back to Congress. Maybe 00:10:26.279 --> 00:10:29.639 for another very specific military only stopgap 00:10:29.639 --> 00:10:32.259 funding bill. They can't keep pulling rapids 00:10:32.259 --> 00:10:35.539 out of hats indefinitely. OK, so October 31st 00:10:35.539 --> 00:10:37.879 is one to watch. What's the other date? The one 00:10:37.879 --> 00:10:40.360 that the Democrats have reportedly circled on 00:10:40.360 --> 00:10:43.299 their calendars. Which is? November 1st, the 00:10:43.299 --> 00:10:46.629 very next day. Why is November 1st so critical? 00:10:46.889 --> 00:10:48.909 Because that's when the shutdown stops being 00:10:48.909 --> 00:10:51.149 mostly about government operations and starts 00:10:51.149 --> 00:10:53.590 hitting millions of Americans directly in their 00:10:53.590 --> 00:10:57.070 wallets. Oh. November 1st is the day people typically 00:10:57.070 --> 00:10:58.889 start shopping for their health insurance plans 00:10:58.889 --> 00:11:02.470 for the next year on the exchanges. Ah, the Affordable 00:11:02.470 --> 00:11:05.490 Care Act marketplaces. Exactly. And many of those 00:11:05.490 --> 00:11:08.330 people, millions of them, rely on government 00:11:08.330 --> 00:11:10.590 subsidies to afford their premiums. And with 00:11:10.590 --> 00:11:12.029 the government shutdown? They're going to log 00:11:12.029 --> 00:11:14.220 on and discover those subsidies are gone. or 00:11:14.220 --> 00:11:16.799 their premiums are set to, as the source puts 00:11:16.799 --> 00:11:20.059 it, go through the roof. Oof. That's not abstract. 00:11:20.159 --> 00:11:22.519 That's real money people were counting on. It's 00:11:22.519 --> 00:11:25.720 immediate financial pain. And that is a very 00:11:25.720 --> 00:11:28.080 different kind of pressure point than military 00:11:28.080 --> 00:11:30.779 payroll or court backlogs. It hits average voters 00:11:30.779 --> 00:11:33.639 directly and personally. Which leads us perfectly 00:11:33.639 --> 00:11:36.399 into the public opinion aspect. How are people 00:11:36.399 --> 00:11:38.720 actually viewing all this political maneuvering? 00:11:38.720 --> 00:11:41.919 We've got new poll data. Yes, the latest Reuter 00:11:41.919 --> 00:11:44.940 -Sipsos poll. Our sources call it instructive, 00:11:45.059 --> 00:11:47.580 gives us a real snapshot. OK, what does it tell 00:11:47.580 --> 00:11:49.440 us? Who's getting blamed? Well, it's interesting. 00:11:49.519 --> 00:11:51.860 They ask the question in two ways. First, they 00:11:51.860 --> 00:11:54.299 forced respondents to choose who deserves the 00:11:54.299 --> 00:11:57.139 most blame. Pick just one culprit. Right. And 00:11:57.139 --> 00:11:59.620 in that scenario, it was basically a statistical 00:11:59.620 --> 00:12:03.059 tie. Congressional Democrats got 37 % and Donald 00:12:03.059 --> 00:12:06.460 Trump also got 37%. Wow, neck and neck. And where 00:12:06.460 --> 00:12:08.399 did the congressional Republicans land? They 00:12:08.399 --> 00:12:12.629 got 19%. Hmm. So, if you force people to pick 00:12:12.629 --> 00:12:15.129 one single entity, it's split between Trump and 00:12:15.129 --> 00:12:18.110 the Democrats. But, if you combine the blame 00:12:18.110 --> 00:12:20.629 assigned to Trump and the congressional Republicans... 00:12:20.629 --> 00:12:24.350 That's 37 plus 19. 56%. Close to two -thirds, 00:12:24.389 --> 00:12:26.190 actually, if you round it differently or consider 00:12:26.190 --> 00:12:29.029 margin of error. Exactly. Close to two -thirds 00:12:29.029 --> 00:12:31.070 are pointing the finger somewhere in the direction 00:12:31.070 --> 00:12:33.690 of the GOP when forced to pick the primary villain. 00:12:34.669 --> 00:12:37.230 That's... Uh, not a great look for the red team. 00:12:37.350 --> 00:12:39.169 Not great at all. But you said they asked it 00:12:39.169 --> 00:12:42.309 another way, too. Yes. They also let people assign 00:12:42.309 --> 00:12:45.330 a fair amount of blame to any or all of the players 00:12:45.330 --> 00:12:48.070 they thought deserved it. No forced choice. More 00:12:48.070 --> 00:12:51.110 nuanced. What did that show? That showed widespread 00:12:51.110 --> 00:12:54.250 disgust, frankly. Congressional Republicans got 00:12:54.250 --> 00:12:58.009 blame from 67 % of people. OK. Donald Trump, 00:12:58.350 --> 00:13:03.620 63%. and congressional Democrats also 63%. Whoa. 00:13:04.039 --> 00:13:07.059 So basically everyone is blaming everyone. Pretty 00:13:07.059 --> 00:13:09.500 much. The real insight there isn't that one side 00:13:09.500 --> 00:13:11.799 is clearly winning the blame game and the public's 00:13:11.799 --> 00:13:14.460 eye. It's that voters are just fed up. Exactly. 00:13:14.620 --> 00:13:17.159 Deeply unhappy. And they blame, you know, basically 00:13:17.159 --> 00:13:19.620 everyone in Washington, at least some. So summing 00:13:19.620 --> 00:13:21.460 up the polls. While the Democrats maybe come 00:13:21.460 --> 00:13:23.720 out slightly better than Trump and the Republicans 00:13:23.720 --> 00:13:26.220 combined if you force a single choice. The margin 00:13:26.220 --> 00:13:28.919 isn't huge. It's really not, which means that 00:13:28.919 --> 00:13:31.139 slight edge they might have. It's fragile. It 00:13:31.139 --> 00:13:33.360 wouldn't take much to shift that blame narrative. 00:13:33.519 --> 00:13:35.759 Like a major air traffic control incident maybe. 00:13:35.980 --> 00:13:38.720 Or sheer panic when those health care subsidy 00:13:38.720 --> 00:13:42.179 notices go out November 1st. Something tangible 00:13:42.179 --> 00:13:44.580 could easily tip the scales and make it the blue 00:13:44.580 --> 00:13:47.340 team's problem in the public eye. Which must 00:13:47.340 --> 00:13:49.769 make some Democrats nervous. particularly the 00:13:49.769 --> 00:13:51.870 ones in tough reelection fights. Absolutely. 00:13:52.230 --> 00:13:55.070 And that brings us to what our sources call the 00:13:55.070 --> 00:13:57.610 canary in the coal mine for the Democrats. Who's 00:13:57.610 --> 00:14:00.450 that? Senator John Ossoff, the Democrat from 00:14:00.450 --> 00:14:03.679 Georgia. Right. Ossoff's a Democrat. not Republican, 00:14:03.960 --> 00:14:06.639 as mistakenly noted in the outline. And he's 00:14:06.639 --> 00:14:09.679 considered maybe the most vulnerable Senate Democrat 00:14:09.679 --> 00:14:11.919 up for reelection next year. Correct. Thanks 00:14:11.919 --> 00:14:13.620 for clarifying. He's the one everyone's watching 00:14:13.620 --> 00:14:16.399 because he has the most to lose politically if 00:14:16.399 --> 00:14:18.580 this shutdown starts hurting Democrats back home. 00:14:18.759 --> 00:14:20.799 So if he starts to break ranks? If he starts 00:14:20.799 --> 00:14:22.980 signaling he's had enough, maybe voting with 00:14:22.980 --> 00:14:25.019 some others often seen as potentially crossing 00:14:25.019 --> 00:14:28.759 lines, folks like Federman, Cortez Masto, maybe 00:14:28.759 --> 00:14:31.120 Angus King, who caucuses with them. If Ossoff 00:14:31.120 --> 00:14:34.629 joins them in supporting, say, a basic continuing 00:14:34.629 --> 00:14:37.350 resolution just to reopen the government. That 00:14:37.350 --> 00:14:40.169 could be the first crack in the dam. It gives 00:14:40.169 --> 00:14:43.250 political cover to other moderate or vulnerable 00:14:43.250 --> 00:14:45.389 Democrats who are feeling the heat. It signals 00:14:45.389 --> 00:14:47.750 that Democratic unity might be fracturing under 00:14:47.750 --> 00:14:50.570 the pressure of actual voter concerns back in 00:14:50.570 --> 00:14:52.710 their state. Precisely. And that kind of momentum 00:14:52.710 --> 00:14:55.110 shift could allow Republicans to potentially 00:14:55.110 --> 00:14:58.370 end the shutdown on terms that are more favorable 00:14:58.370 --> 00:15:01.399 to them. So the big picture takeaway here. is 00:15:01.399 --> 00:15:04.100 that the shutdown is dragging on because the 00:15:04.100 --> 00:15:06.820 initial most potent political pressure points, 00:15:07.220 --> 00:15:09.980 specifically that military payroll deadline, 00:15:10.580 --> 00:15:12.899 were diffused. Using tactics that were, shall 00:15:12.899 --> 00:15:15.919 we say, legally questionable but politically 00:15:15.919 --> 00:15:18.899 very effective. Exactly. Those stop gaps bought 00:15:18.899 --> 00:15:21.590 time. They delayed the moment of reckoning where 00:15:21.590 --> 00:15:23.490 the political pain would force a compromise. 00:15:23.690 --> 00:15:25.769 The first big political hammer blow was neutralized. 00:15:25.909 --> 00:15:27.830 Right. So now we're in this period of watching 00:15:27.830 --> 00:15:31.289 the slower burning fuses, the operational strains, 00:15:31.450 --> 00:15:33.669 the approaching financial deadlines for regular 00:15:33.669 --> 00:15:36.129 people. The political room to maneuver is shrinking 00:15:36.129 --> 00:15:38.309 as we get closer to the end of the month. Definitely. 00:15:38.769 --> 00:15:41.429 That illegal fix bought time, but the clock is 00:15:41.429 --> 00:15:43.750 ticking down again. Which really brings us back 00:15:43.750 --> 00:15:46.230 to that November 1st date, doesn't it? The health 00:15:46.230 --> 00:15:48.830 care subsidies. It feels pivotal. Will that direct 00:15:48.830 --> 00:15:51.950 financial squeeze on millions of Americans finally 00:15:51.950 --> 00:15:54.789 be the thing, the unstoppable force that compels 00:15:54.789 --> 00:15:58.110 negotiation? Or does the administration find 00:15:58.110 --> 00:16:00.649 another rabbit in the hat, another pot of money 00:16:00.649 --> 00:16:02.409 appropriated for something else that they can 00:16:02.409 --> 00:16:05.009 use illegally to buy just a little more time? 00:16:05.330 --> 00:16:07.429 It raises a really important question for you, 00:16:07.450 --> 00:16:10.370 the listener, to think about and track. When 00:16:10.370 --> 00:16:13.309 does a government shutdown stop being a political 00:16:13.309 --> 00:16:15.769 story about Washington? and start being about 00:16:15.769 --> 00:16:17.909 your own bank account or your family's health 00:16:17.909 --> 00:16:20.110 care costs. But that fundamentally changed the 00:16:20.110 --> 00:16:22.549 political calculation. Keep a close eye on November 00:16:22.549 --> 00:16:23.090 1st.