WEBVTT 00:00:00.000 --> 00:00:03.180 Welcome to a deep dive into your stack of sources. 00:00:03.700 --> 00:00:05.540 We're looking at some really critical shifts 00:00:05.540 --> 00:00:10.060 in global trade, power dynamics in DC, and, well, 00:00:10.179 --> 00:00:13.320 how fast institutional America seems to be complying. 00:00:13.400 --> 00:00:15.939 That's right. Our sources give us this incredible 00:00:15.939 --> 00:00:18.160 vantage point, don't they? They really do. And 00:00:18.160 --> 00:00:20.839 our mission today, really, is to help you understand 00:00:20.839 --> 00:00:23.120 the current playbook. We're going to look at 00:00:23.120 --> 00:00:25.199 where the executive branch is pushing boundaries, 00:00:25.719 --> 00:00:27.980 where institutional checks are maybe holding 00:00:27.980 --> 00:00:32.060 or not. And crucially, why certain powerful players, 00:00:32.520 --> 00:00:35.380 tech billionaires, foreign powers, seem to be 00:00:35.380 --> 00:00:37.939 making deals out of, well, maybe expediency. 00:00:38.000 --> 00:00:39.920 Or maybe fear. Could be fear. We'll cover a lot. 00:00:39.979 --> 00:00:43.539 New tariffs, canceled solar farms. Okay, let's 00:00:43.539 --> 00:00:46.939 get into it. We have sources on some intense 00:00:46.939 --> 00:00:51.100 trade negotiations a Government shutdown that's 00:00:51.100 --> 00:00:53.299 not playing by the usual rules big court fights. 00:00:53.299 --> 00:00:55.619 Yeah, and of course the market data that kind 00:00:55.619 --> 00:00:59.219 of reflects all this chaos the connective tissue 00:00:59.219 --> 00:01:02.500 it seems is how transactional fear is Driving 00:01:02.500 --> 00:01:06.299 huge decisions both here and you know globally. 00:01:06.540 --> 00:01:09.319 Let's kick off with the US China trade stuff 00:01:09.319 --> 00:01:12.099 Yeah, because the negotiation style and the sources 00:01:12.679 --> 00:01:14.439 It's something else. It really is. It starts 00:01:14.439 --> 00:01:16.739 with that analogy, right? The piano vendor. I 00:01:16.739 --> 00:01:20.420 can explain that. OK, so the idea is you order 00:01:20.420 --> 00:01:23.200 expensive pianos, they get delivered, you claim 00:01:23.200 --> 00:01:25.400 they're crappy, and then you just offer like 00:01:25.400 --> 00:01:27.640 50 cents on the dollar. Banking on the vendor 00:01:27.640 --> 00:01:30.219 being too small to sue. Exactly. And the source 00:01:30.219 --> 00:01:31.900 suggests the thinking was, well, this tactic 00:01:31.900 --> 00:01:34.400 should work against China too. Against the world's 00:01:34.400 --> 00:01:36.920 second largest economy. Wow. Well, it's fascinating, 00:01:37.079 --> 00:01:39.219 as President Xi didn't really play the victim. 00:01:39.700 --> 00:01:41.480 Instead of, you know, begging for tariffs to 00:01:41.480 --> 00:01:44.780 be lifted, he hit back. Hard. How? Export controls 00:01:44.780 --> 00:01:47.120 on rare earth elements. And these aren't just, 00:01:47.120 --> 00:01:49.540 you know, random materials. They're absolutely 00:01:49.540 --> 00:01:52.760 vital for making EV batteries, specialized magnets, 00:01:52.959 --> 00:01:55.159 semiconductors. Stuff we really need. Crucial 00:01:55.159 --> 00:01:57.299 stuff. It's a very sophisticated counter move, 00:01:57.299 --> 00:02:00.599 actually. And the U .S. response. Just... Escalate 00:02:00.599 --> 00:02:03.799 again. Pretty much a direct threat. 100 % tariffs 00:02:03.799 --> 00:02:07.040 on all Chinese exports. Everything. On top of 00:02:07.040 --> 00:02:09.659 the existing ones. On top of existing ones. Plus, 00:02:10.020 --> 00:02:11.800 threatening to cancel a key meeting with Xi. 00:02:12.060 --> 00:02:14.740 Okay, but that puts the administration in a really 00:02:14.740 --> 00:02:18.139 tight spot, doesn't it? A massive bind. Because 00:02:18.139 --> 00:02:21.360 if she actually calls that bluff and those tariffs 00:02:21.360 --> 00:02:24.259 go on... Inflation goes through the roof. Absolutely 00:02:24.259 --> 00:02:27.340 soaring inflation right before the midterms next 00:02:27.340 --> 00:02:29.900 year. That's a huge political risk. House and 00:02:29.900 --> 00:02:32.360 Senate races. So the bluff probably has to be 00:02:32.360 --> 00:02:34.620 withdrawn. That's the analysis. The prediction 00:02:34.620 --> 00:02:38.009 is, Taco Trump accepts concession offer. Basically, 00:02:38.129 --> 00:02:40.710 they'll back down but need a small face -saving 00:02:40.710 --> 00:02:44.490 win. And the prediction is soybeans. Seriously. 00:02:44.610 --> 00:02:46.990 Yeah, like importing an extra million tons of 00:02:46.990 --> 00:02:48.969 soybeans or something similar. Why soybeans? 00:02:49.349 --> 00:02:51.650 Because it lets the administration say, see, 00:02:51.889 --> 00:02:54.330 we forced China to buy more American stuff. It 00:02:54.330 --> 00:02:56.590 fits the strong negotiator narrative. So they 00:02:56.590 --> 00:02:59.349 can claim a victory. They can crow about a win, 00:02:59.349 --> 00:03:02.569 exactly, while actually giving up nothing on 00:03:02.569 --> 00:03:06.530 the core issues. Rare earths, structural trade 00:03:06.530 --> 00:03:09.349 problems, those remain. All about the optics. 00:03:09.590 --> 00:03:12.280 The source is also mentioned. a scarier path, 00:03:12.300 --> 00:03:15.099 right? Like if things really escalated? Oh yeah, 00:03:15.500 --> 00:03:18.120 terrifying alternatives like the U .S. banning 00:03:18.120 --> 00:03:21.699 Boeing's spare parts exports. And then China 00:03:21.699 --> 00:03:24.800 maybe retaliating with controls on, say, vital 00:03:24.800 --> 00:03:28.680 chemicals or even key ingredients for medicines 00:03:28.680 --> 00:03:30.990 we import. It's like holding the global economy 00:03:30.990 --> 00:03:33.490 hostage. It really is. And it seems when the 00:03:33.490 --> 00:03:35.530 stakes get that high, suddenly anything can be 00:03:35.530 --> 00:03:38.050 on the table. Which maybe brings us to that other 00:03:38.050 --> 00:03:40.090 really shocking deal in the sources. The quid 00:03:40.090 --> 00:03:42.669 pro quo. Feels like it. The sudden kind of out 00:03:42.669 --> 00:03:45.189 of the blue deal involving military bases. You 00:03:45.189 --> 00:03:47.490 mean letting Qatar build a facility inside an 00:03:47.490 --> 00:03:49.969 existing U .S. Air Force base? Mountain homes 00:03:49.969 --> 00:03:52.689 in Idaho? Exactly. This is, well, it's unprecedented. 00:03:52.889 --> 00:03:54.870 Foreign countries train here, sure. But they 00:03:54.870 --> 00:03:57.490 stay separate or alongside U .S. troops. They 00:03:57.490 --> 00:03:59.189 don't build their own base on our base. Never. 00:03:59.610 --> 00:04:01.930 Especially not inside a secure installation like 00:04:01.930 --> 00:04:04.889 that. Why is that such a red line? Huge security 00:04:04.889 --> 00:04:07.270 risks. I mean, think about it. Potential for 00:04:07.270 --> 00:04:10.169 surveillance, spying, maybe even theft of sensitive 00:04:10.169 --> 00:04:12.430 tech or info? Right. That's why the rules exist. 00:04:12.610 --> 00:04:15.689 Precisely. So for this to happen, as one article 00:04:15.689 --> 00:04:18.050 points out, Qatar must have offered something 00:04:18.050 --> 00:04:21.100 incredibly valuable in return. A massive trade 00:04:21.100 --> 00:04:23.600 concession maybe, a diplomatic favor, something 00:04:23.600 --> 00:04:26.660 big enough to justify this security compromise. 00:04:26.800 --> 00:04:29.379 And the political reaction was fierce, right, 00:04:29.379 --> 00:04:31.860 even from allies. Immediate and intense. You 00:04:31.860 --> 00:04:35.519 saw key allies just like lose it, calling it 00:04:35.519 --> 00:04:38.920 a betrayal, compromising sacred soil. It really 00:04:38.920 --> 00:04:41.899 fuels that perception of a major potentially 00:04:41.899 --> 00:04:45.560 problematic trans -division. This sort of high 00:04:45.560 --> 00:04:47.860 -stakes scorched -earth approach isn't just for 00:04:47.860 --> 00:04:50.079 foreign policy, is it? We're seeing it domestically 00:04:50.079 --> 00:04:51.439 with the government shutdown. Absolutely. And 00:04:51.439 --> 00:04:53.579 the sources are really clear. This is not your 00:04:53.579 --> 00:04:55.939 standard shutdown Kabuki theater. Right. Usually 00:04:55.939 --> 00:04:57.980 it's furloughs. People get back pay eventually. 00:04:58.620 --> 00:05:01.100 Congress makes a deal. Not this time. The strategy 00:05:01.100 --> 00:05:03.740 now seems geared towards, well, permanent damage, 00:05:04.300 --> 00:05:06.040 driven by figures like Russell Vaught. And his 00:05:06.040 --> 00:05:08.610 goal isn't just gridlock. His playbook, according 00:05:08.610 --> 00:05:11.509 to these sources, is much bigger. It's to break 00:05:11.509 --> 00:05:14.310 the federal government so badly firing specialists, 00:05:14.589 --> 00:05:17.389 dismantling offices, that even if Democrats win 00:05:17.389 --> 00:05:19.970 later, they couldn't fully repair it. Maybe not 00:05:19.970 --> 00:05:21.629 even in four years. And they're doing it with 00:05:21.629 --> 00:05:25.329 permanent firings, not furloughs. Permanent firings. 00:05:25.550 --> 00:05:29.250 Over 4 ,000 federal workers already gone. EPA, 00:05:29.829 --> 00:05:33.600 Treasury, HHS, Homeland Security. Wow. Specific 00:05:33.600 --> 00:05:37.459 numbers. Over 1 ,100 at HHS, 1 ,400 at Treasury, 00:05:37.920 --> 00:05:40.819 including dozens at the CDC. They even closed 00:05:40.819 --> 00:05:43.399 the CDC's D .C. office. And they're just ignoring 00:05:43.399 --> 00:05:46.360 the law about 30 days notice. Seems like it, 00:05:46.360 --> 00:05:48.600 which has led to immediate lawsuits, of course. 00:05:49.000 --> 00:05:51.180 The tactic appears to bank on Democrats caving 00:05:51.180 --> 00:05:53.319 fast because, you know, thousands hurt right 00:05:53.319 --> 00:05:56.040 before the holidays. It forces their hand on 00:05:56.040 --> 00:05:58.839 policy demands. But wait, doesn't firing highly 00:05:58.839 --> 00:06:01.839 specialized people like at the CDC hurt the administration 00:06:01.839 --> 00:06:03.800 too? I mean, don't they need government to function 00:06:03.800 --> 00:06:05.740 eventually? That's the inherent tension, isn't 00:06:05.740 --> 00:06:07.939 it? For the people pushing this, the short -term 00:06:07.939 --> 00:06:10.579 goal dismantling what they see as the administrative 00:06:10.579 --> 00:06:13.339 state seems to outweigh those long -term governance 00:06:13.339 --> 00:06:15.579 risks. They see the structure itself as the enemy. 00:06:15.959 --> 00:06:18.699 Essentially, yes, worth dismantling, even if 00:06:18.699 --> 00:06:21.100 it causes chaos in the meantime. OK, so that 00:06:21.100 --> 00:06:23.100 brings us to the Democrats' counter. They're 00:06:23.100 --> 00:06:25.160 not just fighting over funding levels, are they? 00:06:25.339 --> 00:06:28.519 No, not at all. They're pushing back with some 00:06:28.519 --> 00:06:31.879 really complex structural demands to end this 00:06:31.879 --> 00:06:34.800 shutdown. This is where the real power struggle 00:06:34.800 --> 00:06:36.740 is happening. Guardrails, they're calling them. 00:06:37.000 --> 00:06:39.420 Exactly. Guardrails that go way beyond just, 00:06:39.420 --> 00:06:41.920 say, restoring health insurance subsidies. There 00:06:41.920 --> 00:06:45.600 are three key demands here, and they're constitutionally 00:06:45.600 --> 00:06:48.360 pretty significant. Aimed at restoring Congress's 00:06:48.360 --> 00:06:51.360 power of the purse. That's the core idea. Getting 00:06:51.360 --> 00:06:53.839 back the control over spending that the founders 00:06:53.839 --> 00:06:55.899 intended for Congress. Okay, let's break them 00:06:55.899 --> 00:06:58.939 down. First one, making rescission bills non 00:06:58.939 --> 00:07:02.819 -privileged. What's a rescission bill and why 00:07:02.819 --> 00:07:05.079 does non -privileged matter? Good question. A 00:07:05.079 --> 00:07:07.379 rescission bill is basically a tool the president 00:07:07.379 --> 00:07:09.819 can use to try and cancel spending. Congress 00:07:09.819 --> 00:07:12.199 has already approved. If it's privileged, it 00:07:12.199 --> 00:07:14.620 gets fast -tracked. Congress can't easily block 00:07:14.620 --> 00:07:16.660 it with a filibuster. So the president can force 00:07:16.660 --> 00:07:19.149 cuts through. Right. Making them nonprivileged 00:07:19.149 --> 00:07:21.490 means Democrats could filibuster, giving them 00:07:21.490 --> 00:07:24.649 a way to stop the executive from just undoing 00:07:24.649 --> 00:07:27.410 spending deals after they're made. Got it. OK. 00:07:27.529 --> 00:07:31.410 And the other two demands target something called 00:07:31.410 --> 00:07:36.240 impoundment. What's that? Impoundment is a. Basically, 00:07:36.519 --> 00:07:39.000 when the executive branch, the president, or 00:07:39.000 --> 00:07:42.279 OMB, whoever, simply refuses to spend money that 00:07:42.279 --> 00:07:44.680 Congress has legally appropriate. Sit on the 00:07:44.680 --> 00:07:46.560 money. Exactly. They keep it in the treasury. 00:07:46.680 --> 00:07:49.279 It's like a pocket veto for spending, completely 00:07:49.279 --> 00:07:52.060 undermining Congress's authority. So demand number 00:07:52.060 --> 00:07:55.399 two. Grants organizations or agencies that lost 00:07:55.399 --> 00:07:57.480 funding because of illegal impoundment the right 00:07:57.480 --> 00:07:59.839 to actually sue in federal court to get that 00:07:59.839 --> 00:08:02.060 money back, overturning an old Supreme Court 00:08:02.060 --> 00:08:04.149 decision. Giving them teeth. And the third one? 00:08:04.290 --> 00:08:06.589 This one targets the officials directly. It would 00:08:06.589 --> 00:08:09.149 make federal officials who carry out impoundments 00:08:09.149 --> 00:08:11.970 who refuse to send out the checks Congress approved 00:08:11.970 --> 00:08:14.050 personally subject to fines. So someone like 00:08:14.050 --> 00:08:15.769 Russell Vaught could face personal penalties. 00:08:16.029 --> 00:08:18.829 That seems to be the idea. Create real personal 00:08:18.829 --> 00:08:21.370 legal risk for officials who defy Congress on 00:08:21.370 --> 00:08:23.490 spending. So basically Democrats are trying to 00:08:23.490 --> 00:08:26.449 build actual enforcement mechanisms using courts 00:08:26.449 --> 00:08:29.930 and fines to force the executive to respect the 00:08:29.930 --> 00:08:32.789 separation of powers. Precisely. And Republicans... 00:08:32.830 --> 00:08:35.570 Seeing this as a major power grab back by Congress, 00:08:35.789 --> 00:08:39.529 want no part of it, which explains why the shutdown 00:08:39.529 --> 00:08:42.590 is so incredibly intense. We're also seeing the 00:08:42.590 --> 00:08:44.889 executive testing limits elsewhere, like with 00:08:44.889 --> 00:08:46.870 domestic force deployment. You mean trying to 00:08:46.870 --> 00:08:48.929 send the National Guard into Chicago? That's 00:08:48.929 --> 00:08:51.789 the one. The attempt to deploy 500 guard troops 00:08:51.789 --> 00:08:55.090 from Illinois and Texas into Chicago, ostensibly 00:08:55.090 --> 00:08:57.710 to fight crime. But the courts push back fast. 00:08:57.830 --> 00:09:00.110 Incredibly fast. Illinois Governor Pritzker sued 00:09:00.110 --> 00:09:02.389 straight away. And the Seventh Circuit Appeals 00:09:02.389 --> 00:09:04.950 Court. They ruled almost immediately. Very unusual. 00:09:05.169 --> 00:09:07.570 How did they rule? A one -page, unsigned order. 00:09:08.049 --> 00:09:10.330 Super concise. It basically said the Guard could 00:09:10.330 --> 00:09:12.950 stay federalized, stay in the Chicago area, you 00:09:12.950 --> 00:09:15.629 know, armories, training sites. But not deploy 00:09:15.629 --> 00:09:18.370 into the city. Exactly. Strictly prohibited deployment 00:09:18.370 --> 00:09:21.649 for operational activities, arrests, patrols, 00:09:21.669 --> 00:09:23.610 that sort of thing. The court explicitly said 00:09:23.610 --> 00:09:25.909 it feared deployment would just lead to civil 00:09:25.909 --> 00:09:29.870 unrest, make things worse, not better. So, what 00:09:29.870 --> 00:09:33.419 now? Supreme Court. Looks like it. Illinois will 00:09:33.419 --> 00:09:36.220 almost certainly argue the Posse Comitatus Act. 00:09:36.320 --> 00:09:39.320 That's the old 1878 law. Right, prohibiting using 00:09:39.320 --> 00:09:41.860 the military for domestic law enforcement. This 00:09:41.860 --> 00:09:44.259 case could set a really important precedent on 00:09:44.259 --> 00:09:47.179 presidential power over state forces. Okay, shifting 00:09:47.179 --> 00:09:49.460 gears to another institution under pressure. 00:09:50.059 --> 00:09:52.500 Universities. Oh yeah, they're facing their own 00:09:52.500 --> 00:09:56.120 squeeze. A classic carrot and stick play. The 00:09:56.120 --> 00:09:59.080 stick being threats. Canceling contracts stuff 00:09:59.080 --> 00:10:01.460 like that and the carrot it's this vague like 00:10:01.460 --> 00:10:04.360 ten page deal offering special benefits down 00:10:04.360 --> 00:10:06.919 the line if they comply But the compliance list 00:10:06.919 --> 00:10:09.889 is pretty intense, isn't it? Extremely specific 00:10:09.889 --> 00:10:12.970 and severe. Universities have to agree to freeze 00:10:12.970 --> 00:10:16.309 tuition for five years. Wow. Limit foreign student 00:10:16.309 --> 00:10:19.909 numbers. Define sex as only male or female. Ban 00:10:19.909 --> 00:10:22.190 race and sex and admissions entirely. And get 00:10:22.190 --> 00:10:24.990 this, punish departments that belittle conservative 00:10:24.990 --> 00:10:26.809 ideas. Punish departments. How would that even 00:10:26.809 --> 00:10:29.250 work? It's not clear which is part of the problem. 00:10:29.549 --> 00:10:31.769 But the institutional reaction told the story. 00:10:32.210 --> 00:10:35.039 MIT just flat out rejected it. called it a non 00:10:35.039 --> 00:10:37.960 -starter. And that former YIVA president? Uh, 00:10:37.960 --> 00:10:41.159 yes. He called it a one -sided deal, pointed 00:10:41.159 --> 00:10:43.500 out that the promised benefits were only available 00:10:43.500 --> 00:10:46.840 where feasible. Which is code for? Code for probably 00:10:46.840 --> 00:10:49.179 never gonna happen. While the requirements, the 00:10:49.179 --> 00:10:51.860 demands on the university were absolute and immediate, 00:10:51.919 --> 00:10:54.259 it highlights the transactional nature of the 00:10:54.259 --> 00:10:56.320 offer. Okay, let's talk about Silicon Valley, 00:10:56.600 --> 00:10:59.220 because this is a big shift noted in the sources. 00:10:59.740 --> 00:11:03.860 Why are these tech billionaires... You know, 00:11:04.299 --> 00:11:06.659 traditionally maybe left -leaning or libertarian 00:11:06.659 --> 00:11:11.179 folks like Altman, Bezos, Cook, Nadella, Zuckerberg. 00:11:11.639 --> 00:11:14.240 Why are they suddenly cozying up to this administration? 00:11:14.559 --> 00:11:16.960 It seems like a mix of things really, a convergence 00:11:16.960 --> 00:11:19.799 of factors. Like what? Well, first, there's just 00:11:19.799 --> 00:11:22.720 pure expediency and fear. These guys see an executor 00:11:22.720 --> 00:11:25.259 who can be, let's say, vengeful. Right. So maybe 00:11:25.259 --> 00:11:27.879 it's better to kind of butter him up, get access, 00:11:27.980 --> 00:11:30.399 stay on his good side, rather than become a target 00:11:30.399 --> 00:11:33.100 for retaliation or, you know, regulatory crackdown. 00:11:33.220 --> 00:11:36.340 Self -preservation. Makes sense. What else? Second, 00:11:36.740 --> 00:11:39.659 anti -restraint. There seems to be real anger 00:11:39.659 --> 00:11:42.820 over even the mild regulations proposed by previous 00:11:42.820 --> 00:11:45.559 administrations. Any government interference 00:11:45.559 --> 00:11:48.830 is seen as just Friction slowing things down. 00:11:48.990 --> 00:11:51.169 Okay, so fear and hating regulation. What about 00:11:51.169 --> 00:11:54.190 ideology? That's the third piece a strong strong 00:11:54.190 --> 00:11:58.190 aversion in some corners to Dei diversity equity 00:11:58.190 --> 00:12:00.950 inclusion and identity politics generally they 00:12:00.950 --> 00:12:03.529 prefer just focusing on merit solely on merit 00:12:03.529 --> 00:12:06.250 as they define it Yeah, and for some that single 00:12:06.250 --> 00:12:08.929 issue seems to override almost any other political 00:12:08.929 --> 00:12:12.000 difference interesting Anything else? Yeah. Two 00:12:12.000 --> 00:12:14.460 more things. Crypto. Democrats generally are 00:12:14.460 --> 00:12:17.240 pretty skeptical. They see it as risky, maybe 00:12:17.240 --> 00:12:19.720 even a scam. But the administration? Loves it, 00:12:19.879 --> 00:12:21.600 promotes it, talks it up as this exciting new 00:12:21.600 --> 00:12:24.080 thing that definitely appeals to the tech genius 00:12:24.080 --> 00:12:26.679 crowd who see digital assets as the future. OK. 00:12:26.759 --> 00:12:29.100 And the last one, technocracy. Right. This is 00:12:29.100 --> 00:12:32.320 maybe the most fundamental. One source mentions 00:12:32.320 --> 00:12:34.279 figures like Peter Thiel, who apparently see 00:12:34.279 --> 00:12:37.120 democracy itself as kind of... outmoded software, 00:12:37.440 --> 00:12:40.460 yeah, like it needs replacing. And they might 00:12:40.460 --> 00:12:43.059 see the current leadership as the ideal vehicle 00:12:43.059 --> 00:12:46.460 for dismantling those slow, messy, democratic 00:12:46.460 --> 00:12:50.129 processes in favor of a more efficient... technocracy, 00:12:50.610 --> 00:12:52.870 run by, well, people like them. Wow, that's a 00:12:52.870 --> 00:12:55.450 good point of view. It is. And the great irony, 00:12:55.570 --> 00:12:57.970 as the sources point out, is this creates a really 00:12:57.970 --> 00:13:01.889 suboptimal situation locally. Oh, so? The bosses, 00:13:02.190 --> 00:13:05.210 the billionaires are leaning right, often for 00:13:05.210 --> 00:13:08.350 these transactional reasons. But the actual workers, 00:13:08.470 --> 00:13:10.490 the engineers and coders in places like Santa 00:13:10.490 --> 00:13:12.509 Clara and San Mateo counties. They're overwhelmingly 00:13:12.509 --> 00:13:15.009 progressive. Hugely. Kamala Harris won there 00:13:15.009 --> 00:13:17.809 by like 40 to 51 points in 2024. So you have 00:13:17.809 --> 00:13:20.129 this massive distance. disconnect between the 00:13:20.129 --> 00:13:22.730 leadership -making deals and the workforce really 00:13:22.730 --> 00:13:25.830 highlights the expediency factor. And this expediency, 00:13:25.950 --> 00:13:28.470 this willingness to deal, it feeds directly into 00:13:28.470 --> 00:13:30.490 policy outcomes, right? Like killing projects 00:13:30.490 --> 00:13:32.570 favored by the other side. Absolutely. Look at 00:13:32.570 --> 00:13:35.350 the Esmeralda 7 Sender Project in Nevada. Shocking 00:13:35.350 --> 00:13:36.809 cancellation. That was going to be huge, wasn't 00:13:36.809 --> 00:13:39.870 it? Largest solar plant in North America. 6 .2 00:13:39.870 --> 00:13:42.629 gigawatts. Enough to power like 2 million homes. 00:13:43.090 --> 00:13:45.210 Just gone. And I know they kill it. This is the 00:13:45.210 --> 00:13:48.690 policy irony. They used the extensive environmental 00:13:48.690 --> 00:13:51.950 review process, the very process Democrats championed 00:13:51.950 --> 00:13:54.250 for years to protect the environment. They used 00:13:54.250 --> 00:13:57.110 the tool against the goal. Exactly. The Interior 00:13:57.110 --> 00:13:59.509 Secretary, Doug Burgum, just canceled the review. 00:14:00.029 --> 00:14:03.350 His stated reason. Solar power is just intermittent. 00:14:03.970 --> 00:14:05.830 But the analysis suggests there was more to it. 00:14:05.870 --> 00:14:09.149 Oh, yeah. Likely multiple drivers. Opposition 00:14:09.149 --> 00:14:11.850 to anything linked to Obama or Biden policies. 00:14:12.250 --> 00:14:14.750 Fulfilling promises made to oil and gas donors, 00:14:14.990 --> 00:14:17.570 perhaps. And maybe even. Religion. Possibly. 00:14:17.970 --> 00:14:20.049 A perceived conflict for some supporters between, 00:14:20.049 --> 00:14:22.350 you know, climate science and creationist beliefs. 00:14:23.090 --> 00:14:25.590 Embracing solar means accepting the science, 00:14:25.649 --> 00:14:27.789 which might challenge other beliefs. So the path 00:14:27.789 --> 00:14:30.470 of least resistance is just cancel it. Cancel 00:14:30.470 --> 00:14:33.070 it. And the expectation is Bergam will cancel 00:14:33.070 --> 00:14:35.570 more solar and wind projects. There's that executive 00:14:35.570 --> 00:14:38.009 order pausing renewables on federal land. And 00:14:38.009 --> 00:14:39.889 this seems to be the follow through. Hashtag 00:14:39.889 --> 00:14:42.309 tag outro. So before we finish, just a quick 00:14:42.309 --> 00:14:44.389 look at the market backdrop this week because 00:14:44.389 --> 00:14:46.629 it really reflects this uncertainty. Okay, what 00:14:46.629 --> 00:14:48.879 stood out? Well, the U .S. dollar index got much 00:14:48.879 --> 00:14:51.159 stronger, about 1 .2 percent, flipped to what 00:14:51.159 --> 00:14:54.419 analysts call a bullish trend. Meanwhile, treasury 00:14:54.419 --> 00:14:57.559 yields went firmly bearish, which fits with some 00:14:57.559 --> 00:15:00.519 softer labor data coming in. But the key thing, 00:15:00.620 --> 00:15:03.059 key thing, I think, was the VIX, the volatility 00:15:03.059 --> 00:15:06.220 index. It spiked up over 22. It moved into what 00:15:06.220 --> 00:15:08.519 they call the chalk bucket. Basically, it signals 00:15:08.519 --> 00:15:11.740 that fear and just raw sentiment, not really 00:15:11.740 --> 00:15:13.600 economic fundamentals, are driving the market 00:15:13.600 --> 00:15:16.419 now. Kind of mirroring the political and constitutional 00:15:16.399 --> 00:15:18.600 uncertainty we've been talking about exactly 00:15:18.600 --> 00:15:22.200 and look where money fled safe havens absolutely 00:15:22.200 --> 00:15:24.740 ripped higher precious metal spot silver went 00:15:24.740 --> 00:15:28.220 over $50 an ounce gold over $4 ,000 palladium 00:15:28.220 --> 00:15:31.759 surge 12 % money looking for safety big time. 00:15:31.980 --> 00:15:35.639 While USWTI oil actually sank below $59 a barrel, 00:15:36.000 --> 00:15:38.220 maybe signaling some worries about global growth 00:15:38.220 --> 00:15:41.639 amidst all this. So tying it all together, we've 00:15:41.639 --> 00:15:43.820 seen this consistent pattern today, haven't we? 00:15:44.159 --> 00:15:47.000 Power being consolidated, projects getting killed, 00:15:47.460 --> 00:15:49.980 often through executive action, bypassing norms. 00:15:50.480 --> 00:15:53.139 Whether it's global trade, the structure of government 00:15:53.139 --> 00:15:56.840 itself, or domestic energy policy. It feels like 00:15:56.840 --> 00:15:59.960 a rapid restructuring. driven by high stakes, 00:16:00.480 --> 00:16:03.279 by political goals, and maybe fundamentally by 00:16:03.279 --> 00:16:06.399 fear. Yeah. Which leaves us with a pretty important 00:16:06.399 --> 00:16:09.100 question, I think, for you to consider. When 00:16:09.100 --> 00:16:11.100 those checks and balances that were designed 00:16:11.100 --> 00:16:13.759 to limit the executive, like Congress controlling 00:16:13.759 --> 00:16:15.899 the money, when they're explicitly targeted, 00:16:15.960 --> 00:16:17.879 when they're threatened. And lawmakers may be 00:16:17.879 --> 00:16:19.899 backed down out of fear of retaliation. Right. 00:16:20.110 --> 00:16:22.850 What's the real cost of that institutional silence? 00:16:23.429 --> 00:16:26.389 How long can those norms, those guardrails actually 00:16:26.389 --> 00:16:28.809 hold up under that kind of pressure, the pressure 00:16:28.809 --> 00:16:32.129 of fear, of expediency, before they just erode 00:16:32.129 --> 00:16:34.330 completely? Something to definitely mull over. 00:16:34.590 --> 00:16:36.509 Until our next deep dive. Thank you for letting 00:16:36.509 --> 00:16:38.070 us guide you through your sources today.