WEBVTT 00:00:00.000 --> 00:00:02.980 Okay, let's try to unpack this. If you've been 00:00:02.980 --> 00:00:07.000 following the current government shutdown, you 00:00:07.000 --> 00:00:09.160 might feel like you're just running into a wall 00:00:09.160 --> 00:00:11.580 of conflicting information. Yeah, it's pretty 00:00:11.580 --> 00:00:14.039 chaotic out there. I mean, even the top political 00:00:14.039 --> 00:00:15.820 commentators seem to be struggling to make a 00:00:15.820 --> 00:00:18.289 call. Look at CNN just this week. First, they 00:00:18.289 --> 00:00:20.469 had a piece something like, Democrats may have 00:00:20.469 --> 00:00:22.230 overplayed their hand. Right, I saw that one. 00:00:22.390 --> 00:00:25.210 Then, almost immediately, the headline shifted 00:00:25.210 --> 00:00:29.230 to, the government shutdown is a slow -boil political 00:00:29.230 --> 00:00:32.770 crisis. More cautious? And then a third piece 00:00:32.770 --> 00:00:34.969 saying, Democrats could have more shutdown leverage 00:00:34.969 --> 00:00:38.600 than people realize. So, which is it? It's true. 00:00:38.759 --> 00:00:41.600 That confusion really underscores how, well, 00:00:41.759 --> 00:00:44.119 unique this particular shutdown is. It's not 00:00:44.119 --> 00:00:45.899 just a typical standoff. There are an unusual 00:00:45.899 --> 00:00:48.460 number of moving parts, you know, and the motives 00:00:48.460 --> 00:00:50.479 are all over the place. So what's our plan here? 00:00:50.799 --> 00:00:54.479 Our mission today is really to untangle the three 00:00:54.479 --> 00:00:57.130 main political groups. driving this crisis. It's 00:00:57.130 --> 00:00:59.829 like a high stakes, three way standoff. And then 00:00:59.829 --> 00:01:03.270 we want to dive into two really crucial related 00:01:03.270 --> 00:01:06.890 deuce stories about executive power and social 00:01:06.890 --> 00:01:09.109 policy that are kind of getting lost in the noise. 00:01:09.590 --> 00:01:11.510 OK. But before we jump into the politics, maybe 00:01:11.510 --> 00:01:13.989 let's quickly nail down two important details 00:01:13.989 --> 00:01:16.109 from the source material just to get the basics 00:01:16.109 --> 00:01:19.010 right for everyone listening. First, if you're 00:01:19.010 --> 00:01:21.409 a federal employee working without pay right 00:01:21.409 --> 00:01:24.620 now, the news isn't all bad. Yeah. You are generally 00:01:24.620 --> 00:01:26.900 guaranteed back pay. Yeah, that's thanks to the 00:01:26.900 --> 00:01:29.439 Government Employee Fair Treatment Act of 2019. 00:01:30.379 --> 00:01:32.620 And that guarantee, it carries a lot of political 00:01:32.620 --> 00:01:35.219 weight. Meaning? Well, Congress could theoretically 00:01:35.219 --> 00:01:37.840 vote to reverse it, but our sources suggest that 00:01:37.840 --> 00:01:40.500 be seen as a bridge too far for most members, 00:01:40.500 --> 00:01:43.000 you know, on either side, consider pretty unlikely. 00:01:43.239 --> 00:01:45.120 Got it. And the second point. The second nuance 00:01:45.120 --> 00:01:47.540 involves that recent vote to just sort of kick 00:01:47.540 --> 00:01:49.939 the can down the road. The temporary funding 00:01:49.939 --> 00:01:52.239 extension. Right. The short term funding bill, 00:01:52.280 --> 00:01:55.659 what we call a continuing resolution or CR, basically 00:01:55.659 --> 00:01:57.980 keeps the lights on without settling the big 00:01:57.980 --> 00:02:01.159 arguments. Exactly. On that CR vote, which is 00:02:01.159 --> 00:02:04.480 mostly along party lines, there was one Republican 00:02:04.480 --> 00:02:07.840 crossover that caught our eye. Rand Paul of Kentucky. 00:02:08.740 --> 00:02:11.840 Just one. Just one. But that single defection 00:02:11.840 --> 00:02:14.560 is worth watching, because as leadership keeps 00:02:14.560 --> 00:02:17.039 staging these votes, the moment another member 00:02:17.039 --> 00:02:20.219 flips, well, that'll be treated as a huge deal. 00:02:20.539 --> 00:02:23.539 a sign that someone's resolve is cracking. Which 00:02:23.539 --> 00:02:26.180 brings us nicely to the three corners of this 00:02:26.180 --> 00:02:28.340 standoff. I'm picturing that famous scene, you 00:02:28.340 --> 00:02:29.840 know, at the end of The Good, The Bad, and The 00:02:29.840 --> 00:02:32.740 Ugly. Ah, yeah, the seminary shootout. Exactly. 00:02:33.060 --> 00:02:36.219 Blondie, Angel Eyes, Tuco, all pointing guns 00:02:36.219 --> 00:02:38.039 nobody wants to shoot first because the third 00:02:38.039 --> 00:02:40.020 guy might get them. That's a pretty good analogy 00:02:40.020 --> 00:02:42.240 for Washington right now. Only the players are, 00:02:42.240 --> 00:02:44.699 let's say, the Trump administration, Congressional 00:02:44.699 --> 00:02:46.960 Republican leadership, and Congressional Democrats. 00:02:47.060 --> 00:02:49.189 Okay, let's break that down. Corner one. Quarter 00:02:49.189 --> 00:02:51.430 one is really the engine of this whole thing. 00:02:51.870 --> 00:02:54.569 The Trump administration and his allies, particularly 00:02:54.569 --> 00:02:57.689 OMB director Russ Vaught, the sources are pretty 00:02:57.689 --> 00:03:00.330 clear. They see this shutdown less as a crisis 00:03:00.330 --> 00:03:03.889 and more as in, well, an opportunity. An opportunity 00:03:03.889 --> 00:03:06.810 for what? To gut parts of the government, punish 00:03:06.810 --> 00:03:08.870 opponents, maybe delay some headaches like the 00:03:08.870 --> 00:03:11.150 full Epstein files release. And this is where 00:03:11.150 --> 00:03:14.300 Project 2025 fits in. the Heritage Foundation 00:03:14.300 --> 00:03:16.819 plan. Precisely. The former president used to 00:03:16.819 --> 00:03:19.080 say he knew nothing about it, remember? Right. 00:03:19.340 --> 00:03:22.860 But now he's openly embracing it. He even posted 00:03:22.860 --> 00:03:24.840 on social media about meeting with Vought calling 00:03:24.840 --> 00:03:29.039 him he of Project 2025 fame to figure out which 00:03:29.039 --> 00:03:33.169 agencies to hit. Wow. Okay. And Project 2025 00:03:33.169 --> 00:03:35.930 remind us the key mechanism is. The big one here 00:03:35.930 --> 00:03:38.810 is resurrecting Schedule F. That's the plan to 00:03:38.810 --> 00:03:41.270 strip job protections from potentially thousands 00:03:41.270 --> 00:03:43.990 of federal workers by relabeling them as policymakers. 00:03:44.150 --> 00:03:45.930 Which means they could be fired basically at 00:03:45.930 --> 00:03:48.490 will. No cause needed. Exactly. It turns the 00:03:48.490 --> 00:03:50.969 civil service from, you know, a stable institution 00:03:50.969 --> 00:03:52.990 into something much more politically controllable. 00:03:53.150 --> 00:03:56.370 And the enthusiasm for this. Senator Mike Lee 00:03:56.370 --> 00:03:58.610 actually said Vought has been dreaming about 00:03:58.610 --> 00:04:01.389 this moment since puberty. Yeah, that quote tells 00:04:01.389 --> 00:04:03.250 you a lot about the mindset, doesn't it? And 00:04:03.250 --> 00:04:05.550 we're seeing the punitive actions already often 00:04:05.550 --> 00:04:08.009 aimed at places seen as Democratic strongholds. 00:04:08.069 --> 00:04:10.750 Like what? Give us examples. OK, so they froze 00:04:10.750 --> 00:04:14.050 18 billion dollars already earmarked for infrastructure 00:04:14.050 --> 00:04:17.790 in New York City. The reason given unconstitutional 00:04:17.790 --> 00:04:22.250 DEI principles. DEI, diversity, equity and inclusion. 00:04:22.459 --> 00:04:24.439 So they're saying federal money can't support 00:04:24.439 --> 00:04:26.339 those ideas. That's the administration's line. 00:04:26.560 --> 00:04:28.980 Yeah. They also canceled almost eight billion 00:04:28.980 --> 00:04:31.519 dollars in green energy grants. These went to 00:04:31.519 --> 00:04:34.259 16 different states. And let me guess. Yep. By 00:04:34.259 --> 00:04:36.279 what the sources called a remarkable coincidence, 00:04:36.660 --> 00:04:38.879 all 16 of those states voted for Kamala Harris 00:04:38.879 --> 00:04:43.120 in 2024. So surgically targeted. But how legally, 00:04:43.120 --> 00:04:46.060 how can just freeze funds like that during a 00:04:46.060 --> 00:04:48.019 shutdown? Isn't there some check? Not an immediate 00:04:48.019 --> 00:04:51.060 one, apparently. During a shutdown, agencies 00:04:51.060 --> 00:04:54.379 have super -strict spending limits. VOT seems 00:04:54.379 --> 00:04:57.079 to be interpreting those limits in the most, 00:04:57.319 --> 00:05:00.120 let's say, aggressive and politicized way possible. 00:05:00.819 --> 00:05:02.939 Using the lack of new funding authority as an 00:05:02.939 --> 00:05:05.259 excuse to freeze money that was already allocated 00:05:05.259 --> 00:05:08.040 but hadn't quite gone out the door yet. A sledgehammer 00:05:08.040 --> 00:05:10.439 approach. Definitely. And you see it in the messaging, 00:05:10.699 --> 00:05:12.839 too. Federal departments forced to put up these 00:05:12.839 --> 00:05:15.279 partisan web banners blaming Democrats. They 00:05:15.279 --> 00:05:17.319 even tried to use employee out -of -office messages 00:05:17.319 --> 00:05:21.310 for political spin. Wait, isn't that a Hatch 00:05:21.310 --> 00:05:24.029 Act violation using government resources for 00:05:24.029 --> 00:05:26.149 politics? It certainly raises major Hatch Act 00:05:26.149 --> 00:05:29.170 concerns. But according to our sources, HUD Secretary 00:05:29.170 --> 00:05:31.430 Scott Turner just struck it off, said he's not 00:05:31.430 --> 00:05:34.430 worried at all. Wow, that attitude. It really 00:05:34.430 --> 00:05:36.910 underscores the weaponization idea. But, you 00:05:36.910 --> 00:05:39.470 know, they can't perfectly aim the pain. The 00:05:39.470 --> 00:05:42.689 Farm Service Agency, the FSA, it's closed. And 00:05:42.689 --> 00:05:45.529 that hits farmers hard. a key Republican group. 00:05:45.850 --> 00:05:47.470 So there's collateral damage happening, too. 00:05:47.649 --> 00:05:49.670 OK, that's corner one. What about corner two? 00:05:50.050 --> 00:05:52.629 Congressional Republican leaders Johnson and 00:05:52.629 --> 00:05:55.949 Thune. They seem to be taking a kind of Switzerland 00:05:55.949 --> 00:05:59.250 ish posture, maybe mostly throwing up their hands. 00:05:59.370 --> 00:06:01.750 Why? They know neither Trump nor the Democrats 00:06:01.750 --> 00:06:04.089 are likely to case easily. Yeah. So their main 00:06:04.089 --> 00:06:06.430 tactic seems to be damage control and staging 00:06:06.430 --> 00:06:09.209 these show votes, votes designed to fail, but 00:06:09.209 --> 00:06:11.470 let them blame Democrats and shape the narrative. 00:06:11.509 --> 00:06:14.019 And what are they saying publicly? Speaker Johnson 00:06:14.019 --> 00:06:16.819 claimed he has quite literally have nothing to 00:06:16.819 --> 00:06:19.339 negotiate, which sounds like passing the buck. 00:06:19.939 --> 00:06:22.959 He also claimed Vought is making these cuts reluctantly. 00:06:23.399 --> 00:06:26.100 Reluctantly after the Mike Lee quote about puberty. 00:06:26.300 --> 00:06:30.019 Exactly. It's an obvious falsehood, contradicts 00:06:30.019 --> 00:06:33.259 Vought's own enthusiasm for Project 2025. But 00:06:33.259 --> 00:06:35.300 Johnson's real view might have slipped out when 00:06:35.300 --> 00:06:38.279 a Democrat confronted him. He reportedly said, 00:06:38.300 --> 00:06:41.279 referring to Trump, I don't control him. At tacit 00:06:41.279 --> 00:06:43.319 admission, he's not really in charge of the strategy 00:06:43.319 --> 00:06:45.600 here. Pretty much, yeah. Sark admission. OK, 00:06:45.639 --> 00:06:49.060 so that leaves corner three. Congressional Democrats. 00:06:49.959 --> 00:06:52.680 Jeffries and Schumer. Right. They they might 00:06:52.680 --> 00:06:54.600 get blamed for the shutdown itself, which is 00:06:54.600 --> 00:06:56.540 never popular. Yeah. But they seem to be making 00:06:56.540 --> 00:06:59.060 a calculated stand. On what grounds? They believe 00:06:59.060 --> 00:07:01.920 it's justified because they're fighting for something 00:07:01.920 --> 00:07:05.920 wildly popular. Health care subsidies. Specifically, 00:07:06.220 --> 00:07:08.819 the Affordable Care Act, Obamacare subsidies, 00:07:09.360 --> 00:07:13.040 public polls show those have like 70 % plus support. 00:07:13.860 --> 00:07:16.259 So, use an unpopular tactic for a popular cause. 00:07:16.360 --> 00:07:18.420 That's the strategy. That seems to be the gamble. 00:07:19.019 --> 00:07:22.100 And it's risky, but potentially smart. They also 00:07:22.100 --> 00:07:25.300 have a pretty potent messaging tool. An ace up 00:07:25.300 --> 00:07:27.120 your sleeve, you could say. Which is? They're 00:07:27.120 --> 00:07:29.939 using Trump's own words against him. Digging 00:07:29.939 --> 00:07:33.120 up footage from 2013 where he said, shutdowns 00:07:33.120 --> 00:07:35.379 are a tremendously negative mark on the president 00:07:35.379 --> 00:07:37.439 of the United States. He's the one that has to 00:07:37.439 --> 00:07:39.759 get people together. Ouch. Turning his own logic 00:07:39.759 --> 00:07:42.600 back on him. Exactly. And the polling... at least 00:07:42.600 --> 00:07:44.939 so far, seems to suggest it might be working. 00:07:45.259 --> 00:07:48.120 That Washington Post poll found 47 % blame Trump 00:07:48.120 --> 00:07:50.980 and Republicans, only 30 % blame Democrats. What 00:07:50.980 --> 00:07:52.759 the pressure is going to build, right? Absolutely. 00:07:53.040 --> 00:07:55.459 We're watching key dates. October 15th is a big 00:07:55.459 --> 00:07:58.100 one. That's when SNAP benefits food stamps are 00:07:58.100 --> 00:08:00.279 expected to run out. Federal courts will start 00:08:00.279 --> 00:08:02.319 slowing down significantly, too. And then there's 00:08:02.319 --> 00:08:04.959 the historical marker. Right. If this goes on 00:08:04.959 --> 00:08:07.360 until November 4th, it becomes the longest shutdown 00:08:07.360 --> 00:08:10.019 in U .S. history, breaking Trump's own record 00:08:10.019 --> 00:08:12.589 from his presidency. So how does this end? What 00:08:12.589 --> 00:08:15.250 are the possible exits? Our sources point to 00:08:15.250 --> 00:08:18.670 three main possibilities. One, someone just completely 00:08:18.670 --> 00:08:21.810 caves outright capitulation. Seems least likely 00:08:21.810 --> 00:08:25.470 right now. Two, Republicans could, in theory, 00:08:25.709 --> 00:08:28.569 kill the filibuster just for funding bills, create 00:08:28.569 --> 00:08:31.490 a specific carve out. Technically possible, but 00:08:31.490 --> 00:08:33.909 a huge political gamble with massive fallout. 00:08:34.049 --> 00:08:37.149 Also seems unlikely. Probably. Which leaves three 00:08:37.149 --> 00:08:40.519 seen as the most likely path right now. Democrats 00:08:40.519 --> 00:08:43.139 agree to another short -term CR vote, but only 00:08:43.139 --> 00:08:45.679 in exchange for a firm binding promise from the 00:08:45.679 --> 00:08:48.200 GOP to actually negotiate those ACA subsidies 00:08:48.200 --> 00:08:50.340 later. Kick the can again, but with a promise 00:08:50.340 --> 00:08:52.879 attached. Okay, so that's the standoff. But while 00:08:52.879 --> 00:08:54.879 that's churning, you mentioned other big stories 00:08:54.879 --> 00:08:57.019 happening in parallel. Yeah, let's pivot to part 00:08:57.019 --> 00:08:59.519 two. These are deep dives with potentially huge 00:08:59.519 --> 00:09:02.559 long -term implications. First, there's this 00:09:02.559 --> 00:09:04.460 really powerful conversation bubbling up about 00:09:04.460 --> 00:09:06.779 what pro -life even means in today's politics. 00:09:08.370 --> 00:09:11.570 Exactly. Pope Leo IV made some remarks about 00:09:11.570 --> 00:09:14.850 a proposed award for Senator Dick Durbin, who 00:09:14.850 --> 00:09:17.830 was Catholic but also pro -choice. And the Pope 00:09:17.830 --> 00:09:20.190 used it to push for a much broader definition 00:09:20.190 --> 00:09:22.809 of morality. What did he say specifically? He 00:09:22.809 --> 00:09:25.570 basically said, diplomatically but firmly, that 00:09:25.570 --> 00:09:27.929 if someone says, I'm against abortion, but they're 00:09:27.929 --> 00:09:30.870 also in favor of the death penalty or in favor 00:09:30.870 --> 00:09:33.629 of the inhuman treatment of immigrants, then 00:09:33.629 --> 00:09:36.600 they're not really pro -life. Wow. That directly 00:09:36.600 --> 00:09:38.720 challenges the narrow political definition, doesn't 00:09:38.720 --> 00:09:40.600 it? He's saying it has to be a consistent ethic, 00:09:40.899 --> 00:09:44.019 pro all lives. That's the core of it, a comprehensive 00:09:44.019 --> 00:09:47.320 morality. And this whole idea of kind of moral 00:09:47.320 --> 00:09:49.940 jurisdiction is playing out in legal jurisdiction 00:09:49.940 --> 00:09:52.179 battles, too. Oh, so? Look at the fight between 00:09:52.179 --> 00:09:54.539 Louisiana and California. Louisiana's attorney 00:09:54.539 --> 00:09:56.620 general demanded California arrest a doctor, 00:09:56.980 --> 00:09:59.559 Remy Coito, for prescribing abortion pills across 00:09:59.559 --> 00:10:02.419 state lines. And California's response? Immediate 00:10:02.419 --> 00:10:05.090 legislative action. They passed a new law allowing 00:10:05.090 --> 00:10:07.610 doctors to prescribe these medications anonymously, 00:10:08.149 --> 00:10:10.870 a direct counter move. So a state level fight 00:10:10.870 --> 00:10:13.129 over who controls access to reproductive health 00:10:13.129 --> 00:10:15.529 care, even across borders. Right. And what's 00:10:15.529 --> 00:10:18.370 fascinating is how this battle over geographic 00:10:18.370 --> 00:10:21.929 jurisdiction connects to the digital jurisdiction 00:10:21.929 --> 00:10:23.970 over your personal health data. Which brings 00:10:23.970 --> 00:10:27.409 us to the aura ring, the health tracker. Exactly. 00:10:27.950 --> 00:10:30.639 There is this dual news about aura. These rings 00:10:30.639 --> 00:10:32.960 track lots of things, including menstrual cycles, 00:10:33.440 --> 00:10:35.399 which means they could potentially indicate a 00:10:35.399 --> 00:10:39.279 pregnancy or, theoretically, a termination. OK, 00:10:39.320 --> 00:10:41.440 so what was the news? Two things hit at once. 00:10:41.720 --> 00:10:44.759 First, or his biggest customer, the US Department 00:10:44.759 --> 00:10:47.240 of Defense. The military uses them. Yep. And 00:10:47.240 --> 00:10:49.639 second, key parts of the aura ring are made by 00:10:49.639 --> 00:10:52.259 a company owned by Peter Thiel. The billionaire 00:10:52.259 --> 00:10:56.059 tech investor. known for his strong magia ties. 00:10:56.259 --> 00:10:58.539 The very same. So you have this convergence. 00:10:58.820 --> 00:11:01.220 Health tracking technology, potential pregnancy 00:11:01.220 --> 00:11:04.200 data, a major government contract, and ownership 00:11:04.200 --> 00:11:07.100 links to a very specific political faction. That 00:11:07.100 --> 00:11:09.720 sounds alarming for privacy advocates. It is. 00:11:09.960 --> 00:11:12.200 And it's reportedly driving many women to literally 00:11:12.200 --> 00:11:14.200 throw away their devices. They're worried about 00:11:14.200 --> 00:11:16.639 data privacy, about health data potentially being 00:11:16.639 --> 00:11:18.659 accessed or even criminalized by politically 00:11:18.659 --> 00:11:20.980 hostile groups, especially given the deal connection. 00:11:21.230 --> 00:11:24.169 A chilling intersection of tech, politics, and 00:11:24.169 --> 00:11:26.529 personal health. OK, what's the second deep dive? 00:11:27.269 --> 00:11:30.210 Segment B focuses on the Supreme Court and a 00:11:30.210 --> 00:11:32.789 huge looming fight over the independence of federal 00:11:32.789 --> 00:11:36.230 agencies, specifically the case involving Federal 00:11:36.230 --> 00:11:39.110 Reserve Governor Lisa Cook. The Fed. This is 00:11:39.110 --> 00:11:41.590 about presidential power to fire people at independent 00:11:41.590 --> 00:11:44.350 agencies. Exactly. It's a major test of a 90 00:11:44.350 --> 00:11:46.629 -year -old precedent called Humphrey's Executor. 00:11:46.970 --> 00:11:49.639 Quick refresher. That case established, Congress 00:11:49.639 --> 00:11:51.759 can limit the president's power to fire heads 00:11:51.759 --> 00:11:54.500 of independent agencies like the Fed. They can 00:11:54.500 --> 00:11:57.820 only be fired for cause, not just for political 00:11:57.820 --> 00:11:59.759 reasons. Why is that important? It's meant to 00:11:59.759 --> 00:12:02.460 ensure institutional stability, especially for 00:12:02.460 --> 00:12:04.980 agencies that need insulation from pure politics, 00:12:05.480 --> 00:12:08.200 like the Fed managing the economy. Prevents complete 00:12:08.200 --> 00:12:10.159 political capture. OK, so what happened with 00:12:10.159 --> 00:12:12.679 Lisa Cook? Trump tried to fire her. She was appointed 00:12:12.679 --> 00:12:15.889 by Biden. The stated reason was alleged mortgage 00:12:15.889 --> 00:12:18.149 fraud from way before she even joined the Fed. 00:12:18.570 --> 00:12:20.549 Sounds pretextual, like they were looking for 00:12:20.549 --> 00:12:23.309 a reason. It certainly appears that way. The 00:12:23.309 --> 00:12:26.389 charge seems flimsy. But the attempt itself has 00:12:26.389 --> 00:12:28.389 huge implications for the Fed's independence. 00:12:28.889 --> 00:12:31.429 And how did the Supreme Court handle it? This 00:12:31.429 --> 00:12:34.230 is where it gets interesting. They took a notably 00:12:34.509 --> 00:12:36.970 Different approach compared to similar recent 00:12:36.970 --> 00:12:39.909 cases about firing agency heads. Trump asked 00:12:39.909 --> 00:12:42.509 for an emergency stay, basically permission to 00:12:42.509 --> 00:12:44.990 fire her immediately while the case proceeds. 00:12:45.370 --> 00:12:47.889 And the court said they didn't grant it. They 00:12:47.889 --> 00:12:50.149 didn't deny it either. They deferred the request, 00:12:50.669 --> 00:12:52.850 pushed the decision off until oral arguments, 00:12:53.169 --> 00:12:55.710 which aren't scheduled until January twenty twenty 00:12:55.710 --> 00:12:58.070 six. Twenty twenty six. That's a long deferral. 00:12:58.110 --> 00:13:00.720 Why is that significant? It's huge. It seems 00:13:00.720 --> 00:13:02.980 small, but it effectively means Trump has to 00:13:02.980 --> 00:13:05.580 wait until after the next election. And crucially, 00:13:05.799 --> 00:13:08.799 it lets Lisa Cook stay on the Fed board and participate 00:13:08.799 --> 00:13:11.059 in all the upcoming interest rate decisions for 00:13:11.059 --> 00:13:13.399 the next year plus. So the court might be worried 00:13:13.399 --> 00:13:16.559 about market stability? That seems to be the 00:13:16.559 --> 00:13:19.460 signal, yes. They seem to view the independence 00:13:19.460 --> 00:13:21.940 of the Federal Reserve, arguably the world's 00:13:21.940 --> 00:13:24.679 most critical financial institution, differently 00:13:24.679 --> 00:13:27.379 than, say, the Consumer Financial Protection 00:13:27.379 --> 00:13:29.559 Bureau director, where they previously allowed 00:13:29.559 --> 00:13:32.419 a similar removal. It suggests they might see 00:13:32.419 --> 00:13:35.679 the Fed as uniquely needing protection from political 00:13:35.679 --> 00:13:37.620 interference because of the economic stakes. 00:13:38.179 --> 00:13:40.019 But what's the argument the administration is 00:13:40.019 --> 00:13:43.039 making to justify firing her for cause? This 00:13:43.039 --> 00:13:44.960 is where it gets really dangerous for the rule 00:13:44.960 --> 00:13:48.340 of law. potentially. The Solicitor General, John 00:13:48.340 --> 00:13:50.980 Sauer, is arguing that the for -cause standard 00:13:50.980 --> 00:13:53.700 is met simply by the appearance of a lack of 00:13:53.700 --> 00:13:56.600 integrity. Wait, just the appearance? Even if 00:13:56.600 --> 00:13:59.370 the accusations aren't true? That's the argument 00:13:59.370 --> 00:14:02.429 that the mere public accusation, even if baseless 00:14:02.429 --> 00:14:05.009 or politically motivated, is enough to meet the 00:14:05.009 --> 00:14:07.409 for -cause standard for firing someone from an 00:14:07.409 --> 00:14:09.610 independent board. That would basically gut the 00:14:09.610 --> 00:14:11.590 whole idea of for -cause, wouldn't it? A president 00:14:11.590 --> 00:14:14.289 could just make up an accusation. It would essentially 00:14:14.289 --> 00:14:18.309 allow pretextual firings based on political smears. 00:14:18.570 --> 00:14:21.309 Cook's lawyer naturally argues the opposite, 00:14:21.649 --> 00:14:23.950 that removing her would destabilize financial 00:14:23.950 --> 00:14:26.230 markets, which seems to be the point the court 00:14:26.230 --> 00:14:28.860 picked up on with its delay. So the court's delay 00:14:28.860 --> 00:14:31.799 is like a temporary shield, maybe? Possibly. 00:14:32.159 --> 00:14:34.879 It's a small, unusual step, but it might be the 00:14:34.879 --> 00:14:37.480 first real test of whether the court has the 00:14:37.480 --> 00:14:39.679 institutional will to protect these critical 00:14:39.679 --> 00:14:42.419 independent bodies when faced with direct political 00:14:42.419 --> 00:14:45.399 pressure, or if they'll eventually find a rationale 00:14:45.399 --> 00:14:48.539 to accommodate the president's demands. OK, so 00:14:48.539 --> 00:14:50.220 let's pull all these threads together. What does 00:14:50.220 --> 00:14:52.700 this all mean for you, the listener? Well, when 00:14:52.700 --> 00:14:54.960 you look across everything we've discussed, the 00:14:54.960 --> 00:14:58.259 shutdown fight fueled by Project 2025, the Pope 00:14:58.259 --> 00:15:00.620 challenging definitions of morality, the Supreme 00:15:00.620 --> 00:15:02.899 Court's hesitation on the Fed, it all circles 00:15:02.899 --> 00:15:06.159 back to the same core issues, the limits of executive 00:15:06.159 --> 00:15:08.820 power and whether our institutions are resilient 00:15:08.820 --> 00:15:11.220 enough to withstand being weaponized for partisan 00:15:11.220 --> 00:15:14.159 ends. And it's not abstract stuff. Not at all. 00:15:14.250 --> 00:15:18.029 This complex fight has immediate real -world 00:15:18.029 --> 00:15:20.610 consequences for you. The shutdown's impact is 00:15:20.610 --> 00:15:22.490 only going to grow. It's going to affect food 00:15:22.490 --> 00:15:24.990 stamps via SNFP. It could affect your health 00:15:24.990 --> 00:15:27.590 care enrollment if ACA subsidies get caught in 00:15:27.590 --> 00:15:30.110 a crossfire. These aren't just DC arguments. 00:15:30.450 --> 00:15:32.809 They hit home. It really feels like all these 00:15:32.809 --> 00:15:35.159 different conflicts are pushing the boundaries, 00:15:35.259 --> 00:15:37.279 testing the checks and balances we thought were 00:15:37.279 --> 00:15:39.340 solid. That's right. And the ultimate question 00:15:39.340 --> 00:15:41.860 raised by all this, really, is whether certain 00:15:41.860 --> 00:15:44.639 core institutions, maybe like the Federal Reserve, 00:15:44.820 --> 00:15:47.299 maybe even like a broad concept of morality like 00:15:47.299 --> 00:15:49.779 the pope talked about, are truly safe from being 00:15:49.779 --> 00:15:52.720 turned into political weapons. Or does every 00:15:52.720 --> 00:15:54.860 check and balance just have a price, a breaking 00:15:54.860 --> 00:15:57.320 point that will eventually be tested? And that 00:15:57.320 --> 00:16:00.360 Supreme Court move on the Lisa Cooke case. Yeah, 00:16:00.460 --> 00:16:03.100 what does that small, unusual step of delaying 00:16:03.100 --> 00:16:05.019 the decision really suggest about the future? 00:16:05.639 --> 00:16:08.139 Is it a sign of strength for institutional independence, 00:16:08.740 --> 00:16:11.320 or just kicking the can down the road until after 00:16:11.320 --> 00:16:14.279 an election changes the dynamics? That's definitely 00:16:14.279 --> 00:16:15.379 something to think about this week.