WEBVTT

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Welcome to the deep dive. We're here to take

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that whole stack of sources. You've got, you

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know, everything from deep dives on DC gridlock

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to these big shifts in global power and really

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pull out what matters. Our mission today. Cut

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through all that noise and try to figure out

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why the federal government seems so, well, paralyzed

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while everywhere else politics and spending are

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just exploding. That's a perfect way to put it.

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Yeah, the material paints this really jarring

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picture. You've got this institutional failure

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happening in D .C. I mean, basic functions just

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grinding to a halt. And then, boom, you see these

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incredibly high stakes moves happening internationally

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and down at the state level, too. So for you,

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the listener, this really explains why so many

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things that affect your life are being decided

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outside of Washington these days. OK, let's unpack

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this immediately then, starting with maybe the

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most obvious symptom of this paralysis, the government

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shutdown threat. Again, it feels like we're stuck

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in a loop with this. But what makes this particular

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crisis stand out? Well, historically, going back

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to Carter, these shutdowns have run anywhere

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from just one day to that really grueling 34

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-day one. Remember that. Oh, yeah. Rough. But

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the thing is, the length almost always gets driven

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by this kind of ugly factor. Public opinion.

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Polls. Yeah. The key insight here, I think, is

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that the old ways of compromising, they're just

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gone. We used to have these mechanisms, right?

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The gang of four, the gang of six moderates who

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could actually broker a deal. I remember reading

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about that 2018 shutdown. Senator Collins office

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was apparently called Switzerland, like the neutral

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ground. And didn't someone give her an African

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talking stick? where only the person holding

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it could speak. Sounds almost mythical now. It

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really does, because the sources pretty bluntly

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suggest that if you gave that same stick to,

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say, Senator Hawley or Representative Schiff

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today, they might be more likely to, well, hit

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someone with it than use it for dialogue. The

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disappearance of the Mayors means these negotiations

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become totally zero -sum. It's all about who

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the polls say is bleeding support the fastest.

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That's who caves. And that kind of partisanship,

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it leads straight to these huge financial lines

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in the sand. Like, let's talk about the health

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care subsidies. Democrats are digging in their

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heels on those. Absolutely critical. We're talking,

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what, $350 billion over 10 years? If those just

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expire, the fallout is immediate and brutal.

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You're looking at 4 million people potentially

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losing health coverage just like that and millions

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more. Their premiums could skyrocket, making

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insurance totally unaffordable. Now, Republicans

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frame it as a deficit thing, right? But cutting

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that cost means denying basic health care to

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a huge chunk of people. There's almost no way

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around that. And then there's this other fight,

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the really constitutional one that sounds super

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technical, impoundment and rescission. Why should

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someone outside the beltway care about this arcane

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stuff? Because fundamentally, it's about who

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controls the money. It attacks the Constitution's

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separation of powers. Impoundment and rescission,

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basically, is when the president just decides

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not to spend money that Congress already legally

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set aside using its constitutional power of the

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purse. The sources argue this effectively just

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neuters Congress. It makes the president the

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ultimate decider on spending, which isn't how

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it's supposed to work. And what's really striking

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is the partisan loyalty angle here. The sources

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mention that Republican leaders, people like

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Speaker Johnson, Senator Thune, they get the

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constitutional point. They understand it. They

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know that fighting impoundment actually increases

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Congress's own power against the White House.

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But... They're hesitant because of loyalty to

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figures like the former president who've used

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this practice. It really shows that party alignment

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right now often trumps even the constitutional

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interests of their own branch of government.

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It's quite something. And if you look back historically,

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Congress hasn't done too well in these big showdowns.

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Think about the 2013 Obamacare fight or the 2018

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wall fight. The White House often tended to win

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those politically. Blue team three, red team

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zero on that wall fight, wasn't it? Yeah, the

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track record isn't great, but the consequences

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now feel different. More immediate. Beyond just

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furloughs, the threats seem unprecedented. One

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source mentioned Trump threatening to actually

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fire federal workers. Not just send them home

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without pay, but fire them. Which is a legal

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right under the Pendleton Act. Exactly. Illegal.

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And a massive political risk, too. Think about

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all those federal workers in Northern Virginia,

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for example. That's a key voting block. And the

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service impacts hit so fast. Oh, incredibly fast.

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November SNAP benefits could be delayed. That

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affects millions. National parks might technically

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be open, but with no staff, no services, and

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the really scary one. We're in hurricane season

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right and national flood insurance program stops

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taking new customers and stops renewals because

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the funding lapsed Yeah, that's a real -time

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crisis meeting potential natural disaster good

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plus the airport chaos scenario air traffic controllers

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TSA agents if they stage sick outs because they

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aren't getting old yes Nationwide yeah, and this

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breakdown this functional collapse it goes beyond

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just funding bills Let's maybe pivot from the

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shutdown drama for a second because there's this

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other security crisis unfolding almost silently

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and sees it expiring. The Cybersecurity and Information

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Sharing Act. Right. That passed back in 2015.

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It had a 10 year lifespan and it just lapsed,

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even though everyone seems to agree it's necessary.

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Pretty much. Yeah. It got held up reportedly

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by Senator Rand Paul and the consequence of CISA

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just disappearing. It's huge. CISA was basically

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the legal shield. It let big tech companies,

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Google, Microsoft, banks, you name it, share

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real time threat info with the government about

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hackers, state actors, and crucially, they could

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coordinate defenses without worrying about antitrust

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lawsuits or getting sued. Now that shield is

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just gone. So companies will likely stop that

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coordination abruptly, wrecking systems that

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worked for a decade. And that potentially leaves

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the US wide open to cyber attacks from Russia,

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China, whoever. It's incredibly risky. Wow. And

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speaking of partisanship breaking things, let's

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look at the judiciary. The sources get into these

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really wild attempts at political trickery around

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appointing US attorneys. Yeah, the goals seem

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to be pure loyalty, not competence. Trump tried

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to appoint personal lawyers, people like Alina

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Haba in New Jersey, Segal Chadha in Nevada, without

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Senate confirmation, using these loopholes around

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time limits. For instance, trying to make Chadha

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the first assistant US attorney, because first

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assistants automatically step up if there's a

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vacancy. Liver, butt. But the courts weren't

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having it. No. U .S. District Judge David Campbell,

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who, by the way, was a George W. Bush appointee,

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confirmed 92 to nothing he ruled against it.

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He said very clearly the law is meant to keep

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career prosecutors in place for continuity, for

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institutional independence, not for installing

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political allies through sneaky tricks. And the

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details on that Nevada nominee, Chad, are pretty

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shocking. Oh, absolutely. Over 100 judges, federal

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and state opposed her. citing things like comparing

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Jewish members of Congress to Nazi collaborators,

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calling Fannie Willis ghetto, using this incredibly

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violent rhetoric about her opponent needing to

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be hanging from a fooking crane. Yeah, it really

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underscores that the priorities seem to be loyalty

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to Trump way above any concern for the Constitution

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or even basic decency. This willingness to just

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bend or break institutional norms seems so widespread

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now, and you see it reflected in the national

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mood. which brings us to our next segment. Yeah,

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the polling data is, well, it's grim. It really

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is. The time Sienna poll finding just jumps out.

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Almost two thirds of the country thinks our national

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problems are unsolvable. Unsolvable. That's just

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profound alienation, isn't it? And it ties directly

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back to this polarization we were talking about.

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Politics becomes all or nothing. So the big,

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complex, long term problems, climate, infrastructure,

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debt, they just get punted forever. The figure

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that really stopped me. 41 % of likely voters

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disagree with the statement, the US is a democratic

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country. 41%. What does that even mean? Is it

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just cynicism or is it something deeper? I think

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it reflects this fundamental loss of faith. Not

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just dislike for whoever's in charge, but a belief

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that the system itself is rigged or broken or

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just not working as a democracy anymore. It's

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deeply worrying. Although there is this interesting

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counter -trend mentioned, a demographic one.

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Okay, tell me about the counter -trend. We can

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use some hope. Well, analysts are looking at

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the really young cohort. Kids currently age,

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say, 8 to 17. There'll be voters soon. And while

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Trump has made some recent inroads with young

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voters, this next generation overall seems to

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skew more optimistic and more democratic than

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the ones just ahead of them. Demographic shifts

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are slow, but this could potentially move the

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national balance away from this 50 -50 knife

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edge, maybe towards like a 55 -45 split in a

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decade or so. It's a long game. But it's there.

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Interesting. So while D .C. is kind of stuck,

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the action and definitely the money is shifting

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elsewhere, like these state Supreme Court races.

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Wisconsin. Wow. Yeah, they become these national

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battlegrounds. The spending is just astronomical.

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The twenty twenty three race cost fifty one million

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dollars. Then the twenty twenty five race hit

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a record. Ninety million dollars and apparently

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twenty five million dollars of that was just

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from Elon Musk. His candidate lost, by the way.

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Right. And now, Justice Rebecca Bradley is retiring.

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So the open seat in 2026, they're projecting

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it could top $100 million. That tells you everything

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about where the real power fights are happening,

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doesn't it? Absolutely. And the stakes are enormous.

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Bradley herself has said some incredibly controversial

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things in the past, like equating homosexual

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sex with death, comparing pandemic orders of

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Japanese internment, linking abortion to killing

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Jews, really inflammatory stuff. So if a If a

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liberal wins that open seat, it solidifies a

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liberal majority on the court for potentially

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a long time. That changes everything in Wisconsin

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maps, laws, the works. And you see that same

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high stakes energy in what one source calls the

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most vulnerable house seat in the country, AZ01

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in Arizona. Right. Representative Schweikert

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is running for governor, so his R plus one seat

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is open. The source calls it a true toss up and

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maybe the Democrats' single best pick up opportunity.

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Why? Because Arizona uses an independent commission

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to draw its maps. Republicans can't just gerrymander

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their way out of a competitive race there. It

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forces a real expensive fight. OK, let's shift

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focus globally for a moment. The EU came up with

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this really creative financial plan involving

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Ukraine. Yeah, it's pretty ingenious, actually,

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led by Commission President von der Leyen. The

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basic idea, take the 140 billion in Russian assets

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that are frozen in European banks and use the

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profits generated by those assets to buy European

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-made weapons for Ukraine. Think German Leopard

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tanks. Eurofighter jets. So it arms Ukraine without

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dipping into EU member state budgets directly,

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and it boosts Europe's own defense industry.

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Clever. Very clever. Now, there are complications.

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Of course, you've got Hungary and Slovakia, who

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are more pro -Russia, and Ukraine has to agree

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to spend the money strictly on weapons, not,

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say, rebuilding infrastructure. So hurdles remain.

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OK, closer to home again. Miami. There's this

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symbolic fight brewing over land for the potential

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Trump presidential library. Right. Governor DeSantis

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apparently arranged for Miami Dade College to

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donate this valuable downtown parking lot worth

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maybe $24 million back in 2004, probably much

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more now. And the symbolism is just, oh, wow.

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The land is right next door to the Freedom Tower.

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Exactly. The Ellis Island of the South, where

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hundreds of thousands of Cuban refugees were

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processed starting way back in 62. So building

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a library for a president known for, let's say,

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very strong anti -refugee rhetoric right next

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to that building. A lot of Cuban Americans see

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that as deeply disrespectful, sacrilegious even.

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That captures the political heat perfectly, and

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it loops back to that contrast. Federal government

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gridlocked, but states are actually doing things.

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Yeah, it's stark. While D .C. struggles to keep

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the lights on, you look at states like Texas,

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New York, Virginia, Tennessee, Georgia. They

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passed thousands of bills last year. And some

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have really high enactment rates, right? Like

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Colorado at 74%, Virginia 61%. But here's a weird

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wrinkle. Why are some states with total one -party

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control, these deep trifectas, actually less

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productive? Like Missouri at only 0 .9 % enactment,

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or Massachusetts at a tiny 0 .1%. That's a fascinating

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point in the material. The theory is that in

00:12:03.899 --> 00:12:06.840
those states, the internal party fights, the

00:12:06.840 --> 00:12:09.399
ideological purity test, the pressure from extreme

00:12:09.399 --> 00:12:13.019
factions, it gets so intense that even uncontroversial

00:12:13.019 --> 00:12:15.340
bills can get killed. With one party controls

00:12:15.340 --> 00:12:17.820
absolutely everything, sometimes they just turn

00:12:17.820 --> 00:12:20.580
inward and fight amongst themselves, prioritizing

00:12:20.580 --> 00:12:23.860
philosophical points over actual governing. Okay,

00:12:23.960 --> 00:12:25.980
one last point, and it's a concerning one about

00:12:25.980 --> 00:12:28.179
voting rights. There's an effort to disenfranchise

00:12:28.179 --> 00:12:30.919
some U .S. citizens living abroad. Yes, specifically

00:12:30.919 --> 00:12:32.600
those who've never actually lived in the U .S.

00:12:32.679 --> 00:12:35.559
Maybe they were born abroad to citizen parents.

00:12:36.220 --> 00:12:38.220
Republicans seem to be pushing this, apparently

00:12:38.220 --> 00:12:40.039
based on the calculation that this group tends

00:12:40.039 --> 00:12:42.960
to vote Democratic. So you see R &C challenges

00:12:42.960 --> 00:12:45.480
in places like Michigan, North Carolina. And

00:12:45.480 --> 00:12:48.419
Representative Abe Hamade introduced a bill requiring

00:12:48.419 --> 00:12:50.759
these overseas voters to prove they have a U

00:12:50.759 --> 00:12:53.259
.S. residence. If this kind of effort succeeds,

00:12:53.679 --> 00:12:55.740
you'd literally create a class of U .S. citizens

00:12:55.740 --> 00:12:58.500
who cannot vote. And the source makes this really

00:12:58.500 --> 00:13:01.000
stark point that's something that has never happened

00:13:01.000 --> 00:13:03.279
to white males in American history. It highlights

00:13:03.279 --> 00:13:05.399
how fundamental this attack on voting rules really

00:13:05.399 --> 00:13:07.940
is. So wrapping it all up, we've gone from the

00:13:07.940 --> 00:13:10.600
micro, right, these specific maybe illegal threats

00:13:10.600 --> 00:13:13.120
to bypass the judiciary, all the way to the macro,

00:13:13.340 --> 00:13:15.779
this pervasive polarization, this feeling of

00:13:15.779 --> 00:13:17.440
hopelessness across the country. But I think

00:13:17.440 --> 00:13:19.779
the clearest takeaway here is just how much high

00:13:19.779 --> 00:13:22.379
stakes political action, actual governance and

00:13:22.379 --> 00:13:24.899
big money. have completely shifted outside of

00:13:24.899 --> 00:13:27.320
that paralyzed federal process in D .C. So what

00:13:27.320 --> 00:13:29.639
does this all mean? I guess the core institutions,

00:13:29.799 --> 00:13:32.440
cybersecurity, Congress's power of the purse,

00:13:32.700 --> 00:13:34.460
judicial integrity, they're all being stressed

00:13:34.460 --> 00:13:36.960
or bypassed or just ignored because of this hyper

00:13:36.960 --> 00:13:39.620
-partisanship. Meanwhile, the real cost of political

00:13:39.620 --> 00:13:42.200
power, whether it's fighting over land in Miami

00:13:42.200 --> 00:13:44.679
or pouring 100 million dollars into a Wisconsin

00:13:44.679 --> 00:13:47.580
court raise, it's just exploding. And if you

00:13:47.580 --> 00:13:50.100
take that figure seriously, that 41 percent of

00:13:50.100 --> 00:13:52.179
likely voters feeling the U .S. isn't really

00:13:52.179 --> 00:13:54.450
a Democrat. country anymore. And you see these

00:13:54.450 --> 00:13:56.529
essential things like cybersecurity laws just

00:13:56.529 --> 00:13:58.690
lapsing over squabbles. Well, where's the breaking

00:13:58.690 --> 00:14:01.269
point? What happens if that growing disillusionment

00:14:01.269 --> 00:14:04.470
starts to feel truly objectively justified? Something

00:14:04.470 --> 00:14:06.169
for you to think about as you process today's

00:14:06.169 --> 00:14:06.549
deep dive.
