WEBVTT 00:00:00.000 --> 00:00:02.480 Welcome to the Deep Dive. Today we're looking 00:00:02.480 --> 00:00:06.219 at, well, a convergence of forces, really. A 00:00:06.219 --> 00:00:08.679 political, economic, and cultural triple threat, 00:00:08.820 --> 00:00:11.179 you might say, playing out right now. That's 00:00:11.179 --> 00:00:13.179 a good way to put it. Our mission here is to 00:00:13.179 --> 00:00:15.720 connect the dots for you. We've got sources covering 00:00:15.720 --> 00:00:18.660 a high -stakes legislative move in DC, a really 00:00:18.660 --> 00:00:20.899 tough situation for farmers down in Pennsylvania, 00:00:21.480 --> 00:00:24.100 and this ongoing media battle around free speech. 00:00:24.239 --> 00:00:27.620 Right. Three threads, Washington procedure, rural 00:00:27.620 --> 00:00:30.339 economic pain, and a cultural flashpoint, all 00:00:30.339 --> 00:00:32.420 kind of revealing the pressure points right now. 00:00:32.659 --> 00:00:35.140 Exactly. It paints a picture of, let's say, governing 00:00:35.140 --> 00:00:37.619 without much of a safety net. OK, so let's dive 00:00:37.619 --> 00:00:39.159 into the first one, the House of Representatives. 00:00:39.460 --> 00:00:41.359 The numbers there just got tighter. Uh -huh. 00:00:41.740 --> 00:00:44.299 The sources confirm Adelita Grigialva won her 00:00:44.299 --> 00:00:47.439 father's old seat in Arizona, Democrat. Yeah, 00:00:47.640 --> 00:00:50.240 pretty comfortably, too. But that specific district, 00:00:50.460 --> 00:00:54.039 AZ -03, it leans heavily Democratic. So the win 00:00:54.039 --> 00:00:56.780 itself wasn't a huge shock. No, not the win itself. 00:00:56.880 --> 00:00:59.600 The implication is the big story. Which is? Well, 00:00:59.700 --> 00:01:01.899 her seeding shrinks. Speaker Mike Johnson's Republican 00:01:01.899 --> 00:01:07.239 majority down to 219 -214. Wow. OK. So 219 -214. 00:01:08.180 --> 00:01:10.519 That means assuming everyone shows up to vote. 00:01:10.920 --> 00:01:14.000 He can only lose two Republicans. Just two on 00:01:14.000 --> 00:01:17.090 any party line vote. That is razor thin. And 00:01:17.090 --> 00:01:20.250 the sources say it gets even tighter. Temporarily? 00:01:20.370 --> 00:01:22.969 Yeah. Briefly. After a Texas special election 00:01:22.969 --> 00:01:25.189 in November, it could drop to just one defection 00:01:25.189 --> 00:01:27.489 needed to sink a bill, then maybe back up to 00:01:27.489 --> 00:01:31.129 two later. It's a real procedural tightrope Johnson's 00:01:31.129 --> 00:01:33.670 walking. OK. But there's more to Grijalva's win 00:01:33.670 --> 00:01:35.549 than just the math, isn't there? Something about 00:01:35.549 --> 00:01:38.819 a petition. Yes, exactly. Get this. Her victory 00:01:38.819 --> 00:01:43.400 makes her the magic 218th signature on a specific 00:01:43.400 --> 00:01:45.900 discharge petition, the one concerning the Jeffrey 00:01:45.900 --> 00:01:48.140 Epstein files. OK, let's break that down. A discharge 00:01:48.140 --> 00:01:50.420 petition remind us what that lets members do. 00:01:50.500 --> 00:01:53.000 Right. So basically, it's a way for a simple 00:01:53.000 --> 00:01:55.840 majority of the House, it's 218 members, to force 00:01:55.840 --> 00:01:58.260 a vote on a bill, even if the leadership, like 00:01:58.260 --> 00:02:00.239 the Speaker or the Rules Committee, wants to 00:02:00.239 --> 00:02:01.599 block it. It pulls it straight to the floor. 00:02:01.780 --> 00:02:03.859 It pulls it straight to the floor. It's the rank 00:02:03.859 --> 00:02:06.060 and file saying, we're voting on this like it 00:02:06.060 --> 00:02:09.020 or not. And this one. filed by Thomas Massey, 00:02:09.139 --> 00:02:12.939 a Republican, and Ro Khanna, a Democrat. It demands 00:02:12.939 --> 00:02:15.360 the Justice Department release all its Epstein 00:02:15.360 --> 00:02:18.319 -related records. Okay, so Grijalva signing makes 00:02:18.319 --> 00:02:23.400 280 -19. And that puts House Republicans in a 00:02:23.400 --> 00:02:26.460 well. a terrible position. A terrible position 00:02:26.460 --> 00:02:29.300 is right. I mean, think about it. Vote Y -E -S 00:02:29.300 --> 00:02:31.479 on releasing the Epstein files. You probably 00:02:31.479 --> 00:02:33.719 anger the president. Risk a primary challenge? 00:02:33.759 --> 00:02:36.580 Maybe. Definitely risk that. But vote N -O. Vote 00:02:36.580 --> 00:02:39.479 against transparency on Epstein. You infuriate 00:02:39.479 --> 00:02:42.139 a huge chump of your own base, including a lot 00:02:42.139 --> 00:02:44.860 of Republicans, and you just gift wrap an attack 00:02:44.860 --> 00:02:46.780 ad for your next opponent. Yeah, the ad writes 00:02:46.780 --> 00:02:49.520 itself, doesn't it? Why won't Congressman X let 00:02:49.520 --> 00:02:51.659 us see the Epstein files? What are they hiding? 00:02:51.919 --> 00:02:54.099 Precisely. It's lose -lose, especially if you... 00:02:53.800 --> 00:02:55.900 have bigger political ambitions, the optics are 00:02:55.900 --> 00:02:57.900 just dreadful either way. So what can Johnson 00:02:57.900 --> 00:03:00.159 do? Are they trying to stop this? Oh, absolutely. 00:03:00.319 --> 00:03:02.199 The sources say they're exploring every option, 00:03:02.259 --> 00:03:04.460 trying to persuade some Republicans who signed 00:03:04.460 --> 00:03:08.300 the petition to change their minds. Like who? 00:03:08.599 --> 00:03:11.120 Any names mentioned? Nancy Mace from South Carolina 00:03:11.120 --> 00:03:14.020 is flagged. She's running for governor, so the 00:03:14.020 --> 00:03:16.060 threat of losing a Trump endorsement might carry 00:03:16.060 --> 00:03:19.080 weight. But Massey, the petition's co -sponsor, 00:03:19.199 --> 00:03:22.039 insists all the GOP signatories are holding firm. 00:03:22.319 --> 00:03:24.960 What about procedural tricks? Can they kill it 00:03:24.960 --> 00:03:27.340 in committee or something? They could try to 00:03:27.340 --> 00:03:29.580 get the rules committee to table it, basically 00:03:29.580 --> 00:03:33.900 bury it. But the committee chair, Virginia Foxx, 00:03:34.060 --> 00:03:37.039 reports say she's flat out refusing to help Johnson 00:03:37.039 --> 00:03:40.020 out on this one. Ouch. OK. Any other options? 00:03:40.439 --> 00:03:41.879 Well, there's what the source has called the 00:03:41.879 --> 00:03:44.800 nuclear option. Try to hold a vote by acclamation. 00:03:45.099 --> 00:03:49.360 a voice vote. Ah, so no recorded yay or nay next 00:03:49.360 --> 00:03:51.360 to anyone's name. Exactly. Let everyone just 00:03:51.360 --> 00:03:53.580 shout it out. It avoids putting individual Republicans 00:03:53.580 --> 00:03:55.280 on the record. But I mean, even doing that looks 00:03:55.280 --> 00:03:56.479 like you're trying to hide something, right? 00:03:56.599 --> 00:03:59.900 It absolutely does. So timeline, when does this 00:03:59.900 --> 00:04:02.500 potentially hit the floor? Grijalava should be 00:04:02.500 --> 00:04:05.219 seated soon, likely early October. The sources 00:04:05.219 --> 00:04:07.939 are pointing to Monday, October 13th, maybe around 00:04:07.939 --> 00:04:10.539 6 p .m. Eastern as the potential flash point. 00:04:10.819 --> 00:04:14.020 And crucially, this is a resolution. It doesn't 00:04:14.020 --> 00:04:16.199 need the president to sign it. Correct. If it 00:04:16.199 --> 00:04:18.439 passes the House, the whole drama just shifts 00:04:18.439 --> 00:04:21.560 over to the Senate. 53 Republicans there facing 00:04:21.560 --> 00:04:24.300 the same ugly choice. A filibuster is possible, 00:04:24.459 --> 00:04:27.199 sure, but if 13 Republicans cross the aisle, 00:04:27.259 --> 00:04:30.000 it passes. And if it passes both. The expectation 00:04:30.000 --> 00:04:32.899 is the DOJ will dig in its heels. Stonewall. 00:04:33.439 --> 00:04:36.220 So this isn't going away quickly, even if the 00:04:36.220 --> 00:04:38.259 resolution passes. Just wild. And, you know, 00:04:38.259 --> 00:04:40.160 as a weird side note, someone actually put up 00:04:40.160 --> 00:04:43.829 a statue on the National Mall. of Trump and Epstein, 00:04:44.149 --> 00:04:46.350 call friends forever. Yeah, saw that surreal 00:04:46.350 --> 00:04:48.889 commentary on this whole mess. OK, let's shift 00:04:48.889 --> 00:04:53.069 from the procedural drama in DC to the ground 00:04:53.069 --> 00:04:55.829 level. Yeah. How policy and politics are colliding 00:04:55.829 --> 00:04:58.529 for actual voters. Specifically, let's talk about 00:04:58.529 --> 00:05:01.990 farmers in Pennsylvania. Right. This is a fascinating 00:05:01.990 --> 00:05:04.910 consequence, hitting folks in what you might 00:05:04.910 --> 00:05:08.370 call Magier country, loyal voters facing a direct 00:05:08.370 --> 00:05:10.550 economic fallout from policies they may have 00:05:10.550 --> 00:05:12.420 supported. We're talking about dairy farmers, 00:05:13.100 --> 00:05:15.819 organic dairy farmers in places like Tioga County. 00:05:16.459 --> 00:05:19.199 The sources highlight one guy, John Painter, 00:05:19.660 --> 00:05:21.259 voted for the current president three times. 00:05:21.399 --> 00:05:24.800 And now he's facing a critical labor shortage. 00:05:25.360 --> 00:05:28.240 The immigration crackdown, the increased enforcement. 00:05:28.879 --> 00:05:31.019 It's created what the sources call a chilling 00:05:31.019 --> 00:05:34.759 effect. Undocumented workers, who often do these 00:05:34.759 --> 00:05:37.639 tough agricultural jobs, are scared away or being 00:05:37.639 --> 00:05:40.000 removed. In Painter's quote, it really hits hard. 00:05:40.139 --> 00:05:42.300 He says, the whole thing is screwed up. We need 00:05:42.300 --> 00:05:44.699 people to do the jobs Americans are too spoiled 00:05:44.699 --> 00:05:47.500 to do. Another farmer, Tim Wood, puts it even 00:05:47.500 --> 00:05:50.980 more bluntly. No labor means our cows don't get 00:05:50.980 --> 00:05:53.860 milked and our crops don't get picked. It's existential 00:05:53.860 --> 00:05:55.819 for them. So it's this paradox, isn't it? They 00:05:55.819 --> 00:05:57.740 wanted tighter borders, stricter enforcement. 00:05:57.879 --> 00:06:00.310 And they got it. But that very policy is now 00:06:00.310 --> 00:06:03.329 undermining their own businesses, their livelihoods. 00:06:03.550 --> 00:06:05.769 And it's not just labor tariffs have also driven 00:06:05.769 --> 00:06:07.970 up their costs for things like fertilizer equipment. 00:06:08.269 --> 00:06:10.310 It's a double whammy. How big is this problem? 00:06:10.410 --> 00:06:12.730 We're talking a few farms or... Oh, it's significant. 00:06:13.069 --> 00:06:15.649 Pennsylvania agriculture is huge. Nearly 600 00:06:15.649 --> 00:06:19.029 ,000 jobs depend on it. Dairy alone is almost 00:06:19.029 --> 00:06:21.850 $12 billion a year for the state. And nationally. 00:06:22.029 --> 00:06:24.089 Nationally, the sources say U .S. agriculture 00:06:24.089 --> 00:06:27.529 lost about 155 ,000 workers, that's 7 % of the 00:06:27.529 --> 00:06:30.170 workforce, just between March and July this year. 00:06:30.370 --> 00:06:32.449 That's a major hit to food production capacity. 00:06:32.889 --> 00:06:35.750 Is there any existing program to help? visas 00:06:35.750 --> 00:06:38.209 or something? There is the H -2A visa program, 00:06:38.269 --> 00:06:41.089 but it's got major flaws for these farmers. It's 00:06:41.089 --> 00:06:43.449 expensive, complex, and this is the crucial part. 00:06:43.449 --> 00:06:45.610 It's mainly designed for seasonal work, like 00:06:45.610 --> 00:06:48.370 fruit picking. But dairy farms need workers year 00:06:48.370 --> 00:06:51.649 -round. Exactly. Dairy, poultry, pig farms. They 00:06:51.649 --> 00:06:54.410 need consistent year -round labor. H -2A just 00:06:54.410 --> 00:06:56.269 doesn't cover that effectively. So what's the 00:06:56.269 --> 00:06:58.910 fix? Are they asking for changes? They need comprehensive 00:06:58.910 --> 00:07:01.629 reform, not just tweaks. Representative G .T. 00:07:01.730 --> 00:07:03.209 Thompson, he's a Republican from Pennsylvania, 00:07:03.310 --> 00:07:05.910 is apparently planning to a bill. What would 00:07:05.910 --> 00:07:08.290 it do? The main thing seems to be opening up 00:07:08.290 --> 00:07:10.689 H2A to allow for year -round workers. But even 00:07:10.689 --> 00:07:12.470 that might not be enough. The industry really 00:07:12.470 --> 00:07:15.649 needs multiple legal pathways for workers to 00:07:15.649 --> 00:07:18.990 get stability back. So the core issue is uncertainty. 00:07:19.329 --> 00:07:21.709 Deep uncertainty. You can't plan your business. 00:07:21.750 --> 00:07:23.589 You can't invest if you don't know if you'll 00:07:23.589 --> 00:07:26.589 have workers next month or next year. The administration 00:07:26.589 --> 00:07:28.889 has apparently made some noises about potential 00:07:28.889 --> 00:07:32.189 aid or, you know, easing up on enforcement for 00:07:32.189 --> 00:07:35.129 agriculture. But nothing solid has happened. 00:07:35.529 --> 00:07:38.029 leaving these farmers, many of them loyal supporters, 00:07:38.610 --> 00:07:41.029 just kind of twisting in the wind economically. 00:07:41.329 --> 00:07:44.629 Pretty much, yeah. Okay, third thread. Let's 00:07:44.629 --> 00:07:48.459 move from the farm to the... Media landscape, 00:07:48.639 --> 00:07:51.839 the culture wars. Specifically, Jimmy Campbell's 00:07:51.839 --> 00:07:54.759 return to TV after his suspension. Right, there 00:07:54.759 --> 00:07:57.459 was a lot of anticipation about how he'd handle 00:07:57.459 --> 00:08:00.240 that first night back. And the monologue, according 00:08:00.240 --> 00:08:02.720 to the sources, was pretty emotional. It sounds 00:08:02.720 --> 00:08:04.879 like it. He apparently got choked up talking 00:08:04.879 --> 00:08:07.480 about the young man who died and seemed genuinely 00:08:07.480 --> 00:08:10.120 moved by Erica Kirk's public forgiveness framed 00:08:10.120 --> 00:08:12.079 through her Christian faith. But he didn't just 00:08:12.079 --> 00:08:14.560 stop there. He talked about free speech. Yeah, 00:08:14.759 --> 00:08:16.620 quite a bit. He made a point about the First 00:08:16.620 --> 00:08:19.360 Amendment, about needing to protect speech even 00:08:19.360 --> 00:08:21.259 when you really, really disagree with it, which 00:08:21.259 --> 00:08:25.060 led to a surprising thank you. To who? Senator 00:08:25.060 --> 00:08:28.660 Ted Cruz, of all people. Wow. OK. Didn't see 00:08:28.660 --> 00:08:31.639 that one coming. Did he apologize, though? Use 00:08:31.639 --> 00:08:33.919 the word sorry. The sources are clear on this. 00:08:34.399 --> 00:08:37.399 No, he didn't say sorry. But his explanation, 00:08:37.820 --> 00:08:39.600 his statement that he never intended to make 00:08:39.600 --> 00:08:42.460 light of a death, was ascribed as, quote, considerably 00:08:42.460 --> 00:08:45.519 more compelling than some forced apology would 00:08:45.519 --> 00:08:48.059 have been. What's maybe more significant, though, 00:08:48.059 --> 00:08:51.799 is Disney and ABC putting him back on air so 00:08:51.799 --> 00:08:54.820 fast. That's a huge part of this story. It signals, 00:08:54.860 --> 00:08:57.139 potentially, that the corporation decided they 00:08:57.139 --> 00:08:59.879 were, as one source put it, ready to tell the 00:08:59.879 --> 00:09:02.259 president to shove it. They knew there'd be backlash, 00:09:02.259 --> 00:09:04.080 but they put him back anyway. And the backlash 00:09:04.080 --> 00:09:07.019 came. Oh, immediately. The president was reportedly 00:09:07.019 --> 00:09:10.580 apoplectic, saw it as a clear loss for him, a 00:09:10.580 --> 00:09:12.720 sign he couldn't even keep one late night host 00:09:12.720 --> 00:09:15.200 he dislikes off the air. And he reacted publicly. 00:09:15.639 --> 00:09:17.879 Yep. Took to a social media platform, called 00:09:17.879 --> 00:09:20.860 the show an illegal campaign contribution, made 00:09:20.860 --> 00:09:23.620 a claim about ABC previously giving him $16 million, 00:09:23.980 --> 00:09:28.259 which seems questionable, and predictably threatened 00:09:28.259 --> 00:09:30.360 another lawsuit. Meanwhile, some TV stations 00:09:30.360 --> 00:09:32.529 are still not showing the program. That's right. 00:09:32.669 --> 00:09:34.990 The Sinclair and Nextar owned affiliates, mainly. 00:09:35.370 --> 00:09:38.309 So viewers in places like DC, Portland, Seattle, 00:09:38.570 --> 00:09:40.509 and a number of red states still aren't getting 00:09:40.509 --> 00:09:43.490 Kimmel locally. But that boycott might be getting 00:09:43.490 --> 00:09:45.750 tricky for the affiliates themselves. It seems 00:09:45.750 --> 00:09:48.389 so. They're dealing with unhappy viewers, obviously. 00:09:49.110 --> 00:09:51.490 They're also likely replacing Kimmel with less 00:09:51.490 --> 00:09:54.929 profitable programming. And the big risk. The 00:09:54.929 --> 00:09:58.149 sources mention Disney ABC could eventually decide 00:09:58.149 --> 00:10:01.029 to pull their affiliate contracts entirely. Which 00:10:01.029 --> 00:10:04.190 would mean losing. Losing everything ABC offers, 00:10:04.250 --> 00:10:06.889 including massive money makers like Monday Night 00:10:06.889 --> 00:10:09.669 Football and other live sports. That financial 00:10:09.669 --> 00:10:11.769 pain could start to outweigh the political statement 00:10:11.769 --> 00:10:15.149 very quickly. This whole Kimmel thing, it feels 00:10:15.149 --> 00:10:17.269 connected to other stuff we've seen just recently, 00:10:17.409 --> 00:10:21.690 doesn't it? Sort of leaning into spectacle performance. 00:10:21.950 --> 00:10:24.360 Absolutely. The sources point to a pattern. Look 00:10:24.360 --> 00:10:26.799 at the president's speech at the UN, 57 minutes 00:10:26.799 --> 00:10:29.580 of, well, it was called an embarrassment by some 00:10:29.580 --> 00:10:32.460 observers. What was the tone? Just wildly alternating, 00:10:33.059 --> 00:10:35.960 extreme self -praise, you know, greatest economy 00:10:35.960 --> 00:10:39.240 in history stuff, mixed with really aggressive 00:10:39.240 --> 00:10:41.240 language towards other countries telling them 00:10:41.240 --> 00:10:44.460 they're going to hell over green energy or immigration. 00:10:45.240 --> 00:10:47.700 Pure red meat for the base, performed on a world 00:10:47.700 --> 00:10:50.720 stage. And then there was the Tylenol controversy. 00:10:51.059 --> 00:10:53.299 Right. The claim that Tylenol causes autism. 00:10:53.779 --> 00:10:56.220 Medically dubious, obviously, but the source 00:10:56.220 --> 00:10:58.100 is really focused on the political angle. Which 00:10:58.100 --> 00:11:00.460 is? The argument basically shifts the blame for 00:11:00.460 --> 00:11:03.100 autism away from complex factors like genetics 00:11:03.100 --> 00:11:05.879 and puts it directly onto mothers. The implication 00:11:05.879 --> 00:11:08.720 being they fucked up, as one source put it, by 00:11:08.720 --> 00:11:10.759 taking a common pain reliever during pregnancy. 00:11:10.820 --> 00:11:13.000 That's a pretty direct attack. How did that go 00:11:13.000 --> 00:11:15.240 over? Not well. It seems blaming mothers wasn't 00:11:15.240 --> 00:11:17.879 a great political move. Even figures like Dr. 00:11:17.960 --> 00:11:20.899 quickly walked back that advice. And finally 00:11:20.899 --> 00:11:23.919 the the walk of fame thing. Oh yeah the plan 00:11:23.919 --> 00:11:26.340 to turn a White House colonnade into some kind 00:11:26.340 --> 00:11:29.139 of presidential walk of fame but pointedly leaving 00:11:29.139 --> 00:11:32.799 out any portrait of Joe Biden just seems tacky. 00:11:32.960 --> 00:11:36.139 More theatrics. So pulling it all together. We 00:11:36.139 --> 00:11:39.360 see this calculated political maneuvering in 00:11:39.360 --> 00:11:42.480 the House with the Epstein vote. And the very 00:11:42.480 --> 00:11:45.580 real unintended economic pain hitting those Pennsylvania 00:11:45.580 --> 00:11:48.559 farmers. And this escalating media fight, tangle 00:11:48.559 --> 00:11:50.580 up with corporate power and free speech debates, 00:11:51.019 --> 00:11:54.139 plus all these other recent examples of prioritizing 00:11:54.139 --> 00:11:56.210 spectacle. What the sources are really showing 00:11:56.210 --> 00:11:58.190 us when you put it all together is a government 00:11:58.190 --> 00:12:01.049 under pressure, operating almost without a net, 00:12:01.289 --> 00:12:04.629 procedurally with that tiny house majority, economically 00:12:04.629 --> 00:12:07.610 with this farm labor crisis, diplomatically with 00:12:07.610 --> 00:12:10.529 things like that UN speech. It feels like distraction 00:12:10.529 --> 00:12:13.129 and blame are becoming the main tools. It certainly 00:12:13.129 --> 00:12:15.629 looks that way sometimes, which leads to the 00:12:15.629 --> 00:12:17.909 final thought for you, our listener. When you 00:12:17.909 --> 00:12:20.289 see leaders leaning so heavily on spectacle, 00:12:20.470 --> 00:12:23.669 the Tylenol claims, the UN performance, the lawsuit 00:12:23.669 --> 00:12:26.289 threats, while critical issues like food security 00:12:26.289 --> 00:12:29.190 or legislative function are struggling, what's 00:12:29.190 --> 00:12:32.129 the real cost? Beyond just the optics, what's 00:12:32.129 --> 00:12:34.590 the ultimate price we pay when performance becomes 00:12:34.590 --> 00:12:35.710 the main way of governing?