WEBVTT

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Welcome to the deep dive. So today we're jumping

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into, well, kind of a whirlwind tour. There's

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some really fascinating headlines. Some are perhaps

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a bit head scratching, too. Our mission really

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is to uncover those underlying currents, maybe

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some surprising connections, those aha moments

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you might miss just. you know, glancing at the

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news. We've got quite a range today. We're talking

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global politics, economic shifts, the future

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of political parties, even some eye -opening

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government spending and, well, a pretty sobering

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look at education. Exactly. And we'll try to

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distill what's actually significant here. Connect

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those seemingly separate events and explain why

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they should matter to you. It's all about encouraging

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that critical thinking, isn't it? Because the

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world rarely gives simple answers. Often the

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real insights are beneath the surface. OK, let's

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dive right in then. First up, a story that almost

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feels like royal drama. Donald Trump's recent

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trip to England. King Charles III apparently

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put on quite the show, loads of pageantry at

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Windsor Castle. Right, the Windsor visit. Yeah,

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and the thinking is Prime Minister Keir Starmer

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probably asked for it. you know, to make Trump

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feel like a king for a day. We're talking cavalry,

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those big furry hats, red carpets, gilded rooms,

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the works, grandeur central. Now, Trump seemed

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to enjoy it, but he did have a couple of, let's

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say, royal no -nos, stepped ahead of the king

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once or twice. Oh, how did that go down? Well,

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Charles was pretty smooth about it, recovered

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gracefully, apparently avoided the kind of awkwardness

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we saw with Queen Elizabeth back in 2019. Ah,

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right. And Windsor itself is interesting. Location

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-wise. How so? Well, it's not right in central

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London. It's about 25 miles west, smaller town.

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Yeah. But for ceremony, for history, it's got

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that weight. Maybe more visually impressive inside

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than, say, Buckingham Palace for this kind of

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thing. Makes sense. Keep the pomp, but maybe

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slightly removed from the main London buzz. Exactly.

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Allows for the display, but maybe contains the

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political noise a little. Speaking of noise,

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while the king was pulling out all the stops

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inside, things were different outside Windsor.

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And definitely in central London, thousands protesting.

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Banners like, no to racism, no to Trump. Yeah,

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so reports about that. And it got even more direct.

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Someone projected images of Trump and Epstein

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onto Windsor Castle itself. Led to four arrests,

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actually. Wow. But what's interesting is, compared

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to some other places, the UK still has pretty

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broad free speech protections, right? Generally,

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yes. Yeah. More leeway than some might expect.

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Like Channel 4 running a five -hour special just

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cataloging Trump's statements they called untruthful.

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Five hours. Their content chief even hoped Trump

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might watch them after dinner. That's quite a

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statement from a broadcaster. Definitely. OK,

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so let's shift from London to a domestic story.

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Another kind of drama, maybe call it wrong think

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in the crosshairs, this time involving Jimmy

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Kimmel. So Monday night, Kimmel's monologue,

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he talks about the arrest of Tyler Robinson for

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Charlie Kirk's murder. And he says something

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like, we hit some new lows with those aligned

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with the Mad J movement desperately trying to

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characterize this kid as anything other than

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one of them and doing everything they can to

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score political points. Right. I remember the

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commentary. It wasn't really about Kirk himself,

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but the reaction to the person arrested. Exactly.

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But the reaction to Kimmel's words was immediate.

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And pretty forceful. Yeah, what happened there?

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Because it seemed very fast. Well, the Trump

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-appointed FCC chair, Brendan Carr, gave an interview.

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And he hinted pretty strongly that the FCC might

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look into suspending ABC's broadcast license.

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Seriously? Over a monologue comment? Apparently.

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And that just sent Disney, you know, ABC's parent

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company and their partners into a complete spin.

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I bet. License suspension is huge. So huge that

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the decision to suspend Kimmel came down incredibly

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fast. Like, he reportedly got the news while

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they were finalizing that night's monologue.

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Guests already in the studio. Wow. That is astonishingly

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quick. It really is. It feels like maybe a mix

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of things. You know, traditional media profits

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aren't what they were. That's certainly a factor

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for network. Plus maybe just not wanting to risk

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offending, uh, MAGA world. We saw Stephen Colbert

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lose his late night job, too. Is this just the

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new reality for late night? Draw the wrong kind

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of fire and you're out. It does raise a fascinating

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point about maybe unintended consequences. How

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so? Well, OK, network constraints are tightening.

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Late night ratings generally are down. But look

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at podcasting. It's absolutely booming. Kimmel,

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Colbert, they're perfect for podcasts, maybe

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even together. Huh. Never thought of that. And

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suddenly, they could have a much larger audience,

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totally uncensored, no network worries. They

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could become like a huge voice on the left. Kind

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of a Joe Rogan effect, but from a different angle.

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So trying to shut them down on TV might just

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give them a bigger platform elsewhere. It's possible.

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Attempts to suppress something can sometimes

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just amplify it, you know. It's happened before.

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That's a really sharp point. And it wasn't just

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Kimmel feeling the heat, right? The president

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also designated Antifa a major terrorist organization.

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Right. That designation happened, too. Though,

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legally speaking, for a domestic group, it doesn't

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carry the same weight or trigger the same actions

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as it does for foreign terrorist organizations.

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Oh, OK. So it's more symbolic, perhaps? Largely,

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yes. The legal tools are mostly geared towards

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those aiding foreign designated groups. Got it.

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OK, with all that political maneuvering in mind,

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let's switch gears a bit. Let's look at the economy.

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The Federal Reserve made a pretty big move yesterday.

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They did. The Open Market Committee cut interest

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rates. Quarter of a percent. First cut this year,

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right? First one this year, yeah. But it's a

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risky move. Why is that? Isn't cutting rates

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usually seen as good for the economy? Stimulating

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things? It can be, but the risk is inflation.

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Remember August, inflation came in at 2 .9%.

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That's already above the Fed's 2 % target. Cutting

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rates now could easily push inflation back over

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3%. And Fed Chair Powell himself made a kind

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of unusual comment. What was that? About the

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labor market. He noted fewer jobs, yeah, but

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also fewer people looking for work, partly because

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of deportations. That's a situation the Fed hasn't

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really faced before. Huh. So fewer workers available

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might keep wages high, even if job growth slows.

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Exactly. It complicates the inflation picture.

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So Powell hinted more cuts might come. But you

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have to wonder, will inflation just surge again?

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That's the big tension, isn't it? Politics versus

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economics. Presidents always want lower rates,

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especially before an election. Always. But if

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Powell cuts too much and inflation takes off,

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that could actually hurt the Republicans next

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year. Precisely. It's a tough balancing act.

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Ideally, the Fed makes decisions independent

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of politics. But is that ever truly possible?

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The pressure must be immense. What should a president

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do? Just completely leave Powell alone. Seems

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unlikely. Historically, a truly hands -off approach

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is rare when the economy feels shaky or an election

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looms. Short -term political gain often clashes

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with long -term stability. It's almost inevitable.

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OK, let's transition from the Fed to the future

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of the Republican Party itself. We're looking

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at some insights from Jim Van De Hei and Mike

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Allen, political veterans. Right. What have they

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seen? Their big takeaway is this goal of MAGU

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integration. Basically, how to turn Trump voters,

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especially younger ones, maybe not traditional

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Republicans, into loyal registered party members.

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They pointed to JD Vance hosting the Charlie

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Kirk Show's Memorial Edition as a very visible

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first step in that process. Interesting. So it's

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about solidifying that base beyond just Trump

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himself. And Vance is key there. Seems like it.

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He's positioned as maybe the 2028 heir apparent.

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He's using his RNC finance chair job. to connect

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with donors. But he could face headwinds, right?

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If the economy sours, his stay the course message

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might be tough against an outsider, maybe Governor

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Kemp or a young kid. Good point. And others are

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maneuvering, too. Marco Rubio, as Secretary of

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State, he's very active, probably eyeing the

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VP slot for 2028. And Suzy Wiles is still seen

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as the key power broker behind the scenes. Very

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savvy. Donald Trump Jr. backs Vance, too, apparently,

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though, how much real influence he has across

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the party. That's debatable sometimes. True.

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But here's a really interesting shift Van De

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Hei and Alan point out. podcasts. They say podcasts

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are becoming the center of political gravity.

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That makes sense. Traditional media keep shrinking.

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Podcasts are huge, especially with younger men

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who maybe don't watch cable news or read papers

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much. Exactly. So their argument is any candidate

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who really connects with the big podcasters,

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they've got a massive advantage. It's a whole

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new battleground. And how does the Man .G .A.

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movement adapt? Vance seems to be trying to be

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even more combative, right? Yeah, trying to out

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-Trump Trump. they put it, calling to root out

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liberals celebrating Charlie's murder, even though

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there aren't many actual high profile examples

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of that happening. So does that work? Or does

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the base see it as maybe inauthentic? They say

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the base is pretty good at sniffing out phonies.

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It's a risk. Trying too hard. It is. OK, shifting

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over to the Democrat side. Campaign infrastructure.

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Act blue is making a big move. Ah, act blue.

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The donation platform, what are they doing? They've

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been huge, right? Making it super easy to donate

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online, especially for smaller campaigns. One

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click. Incredibly effective, yeah. Especially

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for grassroots fundraising. Well now they've

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bought a company called Impactive. Impactive,

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what do they do? They provide tools for things

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like canvassing, phone banking, voter outreach.

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So ActBlue is basically becoming a one -stop

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shop now. Ah, I see. Combining the fund -raising

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ease with the organizing tools. That's a smart

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move, especially for those smaller and medium

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-sized campaigns. Gives them access to more sophisticated

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stuff. Exactly. But now, politically, what's

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happening? Donald Trump is going after ActBlue.

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Hard. Really? On what grounds? He's claiming

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without evidence, mind you, that they aren't

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doing enough to stop straw man. donations, illegal

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foreign money disguised as small domestic donations.

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Strong donations. OK. That's a serious allegation,

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but often hard to prove on a large scale. Is

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there evidence of a major problem? Seems similar

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to the non -citizen voting claims the scale appears

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tiny, but it's being framed as a huge issue.

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He's trying to make it seem like an epidemic.

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It's interesting he's targeting Act Blue specifically.

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Yeah. What about Win Red? The Republican equivalent.

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Good question. They're not getting the same heat.

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And there's a key difference, right? ActBlue

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is a nonprofit. Very efficient. WinRed is a for

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-profit company. Takes a bigger cut. That is

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a significant difference in their models. Might

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explain the focus. OK, let's talk big money.

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Record breaking money. North Carolina. Yes. The

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Senate race. 2026. Roy Cooper versus Michael

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Watley. It's predicted to be the first billion

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dollar Senate race ever. A billion. With a B.

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That's just... Staggering. More than double the

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current record. Why so much? Well, North Carolina

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is just absolutely crucial. It's a key swing

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state. Both parties need it for Senate control.

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Simple as that. And the candidates. You've got

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Cooper, the Democrat, who's a known quantity.

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Very popular former governor, won statewide six

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times. Kind of folksy and low -key. Yeah. Very

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strong candidate profile. And Whatley. Republican.

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He's a strong fundraiser. He was RNC chair. But

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he's never actually run for public office before.

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That raises what the pros call candidate quality

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questions, especially in a race this massive.

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So experience versus fundraising muscle. In a

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state where control of the Senate could hang

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in the balance, billions will flow. No doubt

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about it. Every dollar will be spent. Okay, another

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indicator, maybe a tea leaf for predicting who

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controls the House next. retirements. Ah, yes.

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The retirement watch. How's it looking? Well,

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the thinking is, House members hate being in

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the minority. No power. So if they think their

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party's going to lose control, they often just

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retire or run for something else. Makes sense.

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Why stick around if you're going to be on the

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sideline? So what are the numbers? Right now,

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it's 16 Republicans retiring and 12 Democrats.

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That's a net difference of R minus four. And

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historically, what does that suggest? There's

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a clear pattern. A strong negative correlation.

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The more Republicans who retire, generally, the

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worse the Republicans do in the election. Kind

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of a self -fulfilling prophecy, too, right? Experience

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incumbents giving up seats makes them harder

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to hold. Exactly. So based on these numbers,

00:12:24.220 --> 00:12:25.879
some analysts are predicting Democrats could

00:12:25.879 --> 00:12:29.179
pick up maybe 20 seats. That would be a big shift.

00:12:29.299 --> 00:12:31.440
20 seats. Yeah, that would definitely flip control.

00:12:31.600 --> 00:12:34.059
Retirements are a key signal. OK, let's pivot

00:12:34.059 --> 00:12:37.120
to something less visible, maybe, but hugely

00:12:37.120 --> 00:12:40.159
impactful. Government spending. Or maybe government

00:12:40.159 --> 00:12:43.159
waste. I have to ask, where are the watchdogs

00:12:43.159 --> 00:12:45.320
when you need them? What's caught your eye? Get

00:12:45.320 --> 00:12:47.659
this. Congress, over the last four years, has

00:12:47.659 --> 00:12:50.059
put over a hundred billion dollars towards weapon

00:12:50.059 --> 00:12:53.159
systems that the Pentagon itself did not ask

00:12:53.159 --> 00:12:55.539
for. Doesn't need, doesn't even want. A hundred

00:12:55.539 --> 00:12:58.899
billion? Wow, that's... That's textbook government

00:12:58.899 --> 00:13:01.019
waste, isn't it? How does that happen? Seems

00:13:01.019 --> 00:13:03.980
like it's often these recalcitrant Congress critters,

00:13:04.139 --> 00:13:06.840
as one report put it, demanding contracts for

00:13:06.840 --> 00:13:09.759
their districts or maybe for donors in exchange

00:13:09.759 --> 00:13:12.620
for votes on other bills. Earmarks, essentially,

00:13:13.279 --> 00:13:16.059
but maybe hidden, appearing magically in the

00:13:16.059 --> 00:13:18.720
dark of night in spending bills. That's the accusation.

00:13:18.840 --> 00:13:21.220
Provisions just appear, bypassing the normal

00:13:21.220 --> 00:13:23.779
defense reviews. And it's still happening. Apparently.

00:13:24.120 --> 00:13:28.500
For 2026, there's $52 billion in these program

00:13:28.500 --> 00:13:31.259
increases over what the Pentagon actually requested.

00:13:31.860 --> 00:13:34.299
Gabe Murphy from Taxpayers for Common Sense is

00:13:34.299 --> 00:13:36.740
warning that the lack of transparency, the anonymous

00:13:36.740 --> 00:13:39.700
direction of funds just invites abuse. It's pretty

00:13:39.700 --> 00:13:41.779
concerning. What percentage of these add ons

00:13:41.779 --> 00:13:44.279
did the Pentagon actually say they needed? even

00:13:44.279 --> 00:13:47.820
if unfunded. Get this, 75 % of the proposals

00:13:47.820 --> 00:13:50.720
for 2026 were not requested by the Pentagon at

00:13:50.720 --> 00:13:53.259
all. And only about 3 % were things that were

00:13:53.259 --> 00:13:55.500
actually on the Pentagon's own list of unfunded

00:13:55.500 --> 00:13:58.019
priorities, stuff they genuinely need, but couldn't

00:13:58.019 --> 00:14:00.299
fit in the main budget. So not only is it wasting

00:14:00.299 --> 00:14:02.360
money, it could actually be hurting military

00:14:02.360 --> 00:14:05.480
readiness, diverting funds and resources from

00:14:05.480 --> 00:14:07.919
what the military actually says it needs to buy

00:14:07.919 --> 00:14:11.539
or maintain. Precisely. And there are concrete

00:14:11.539 --> 00:14:15.659
examples. Senator Susan Collins in Maine proudly

00:14:15.659 --> 00:14:19.139
announced $283 million for Pratt & Whitney jet

00:14:19.139 --> 00:14:21.519
engines the Pentagon doesn't need. Pratt & Whitney

00:14:21.519 --> 00:14:23.960
is a campaign contributor, by the way. Any others?

00:14:24.360 --> 00:14:28.080
Boeing. Getting $360 million for Apache helicopters,

00:14:28.320 --> 00:14:31.240
the Army explicitly said it does not want. It's

00:14:31.240 --> 00:14:33.779
not just small change. No, those are huge sums.

00:14:34.080 --> 00:14:36.059
It paints a picture of priorities being driven

00:14:36.059 --> 00:14:39.279
by politics and parochial interests, not necessarily

00:14:39.279 --> 00:14:41.950
defense needs. Seems that way. Okay, finally,

00:14:42.029 --> 00:14:44.570
let's turn to something really alarming. Education.

00:14:45.110 --> 00:14:47.470
A new report paints a frankly stark picture of

00:14:47.470 --> 00:14:50.090
American high schools. Consider this stat. One

00:14:50.090 --> 00:14:52.710
third of high school seniors cannot calculate

00:14:52.710 --> 00:14:56.049
a 10 % discount on an $80 shirt. One third, that's,

00:14:56.070 --> 00:14:58.289
wow, that's basic arithmetic. Fifth grade level,

00:14:58.370 --> 00:15:00.570
maybe? Exactly. It suggests fundamental concepts

00:15:00.570 --> 00:15:02.570
just aren't sticking. Where is this data from?

00:15:02.690 --> 00:15:05.269
It's from the NAEP, the National Assessment Education

00:15:05.269 --> 00:15:07.750
Progress. They basically gave American students

00:15:07.750 --> 00:15:11.440
a D grade overall. A D grade. Matthew Soldner

00:15:11.440 --> 00:15:13.799
at the National Center for Educational Statistics

00:15:13.799 --> 00:15:16.620
called it a stark decline and the Secretary of

00:15:16.620 --> 00:15:20.320
Education Linda McMahon went further a devastating

00:15:20.320 --> 00:15:24.220
trend and an economic emergency an economic emergency

00:15:24.429 --> 00:15:26.710
That's strong language. What else did the report

00:15:26.710 --> 00:15:29.470
find? Well, that one third of seniors failing

00:15:29.470 --> 00:15:32.350
to reach the basic level in reading, that means

00:15:32.350 --> 00:15:34.649
they struggle with simple inferences from text,

00:15:34.730 --> 00:15:36.450
just understanding the straightforward meaning.

00:15:36.789 --> 00:15:39.289
So basic comprehension is an issue for a huge

00:15:39.289 --> 00:15:42.389
chunk of students. And math is even worse. Forty

00:15:42.389 --> 00:15:45.029
five percent are below basic. They can't do things

00:15:45.029 --> 00:15:48.309
like figure out gas need for a road trip or adjust

00:15:48.309 --> 00:15:50.669
recipe measurements, everyday stuff. These aren't

00:15:50.669 --> 00:15:52.909
abstract skills. These are functional life skills.

00:15:53.029 --> 00:15:55.419
How do we stack? internationally. Not great.

00:15:55.659 --> 00:15:58.879
The PSA 2025 results put the U .S. at hashtag

00:15:58.879 --> 00:16:02.340
18, way behind many Asian nations, even behind

00:16:02.340 --> 00:16:04.899
Canada. Number 18. So it raises that question,

00:16:05.039 --> 00:16:07.179
right? How does the U .S. stay competitive? How

00:16:07.179 --> 00:16:09.480
do we out innovate if our kids are struggling

00:16:09.480 --> 00:16:11.539
with reading and basic math compared to other

00:16:11.539 --> 00:16:13.659
developed nations? It's a critical question.

00:16:13.820 --> 00:16:15.559
And educators always talk about third grade being

00:16:15.559 --> 00:16:18.679
that key point, you know, where kids shift from

00:16:18.679 --> 00:16:21.879
learning to read to reading to learn. Right.

00:16:22.000 --> 00:16:23.559
That transition is fundamental. How are we doing

00:16:23.559 --> 00:16:26.720
there? Well, the 2024 report card showed 40 %

00:16:26.720 --> 00:16:28.840
of fourth graders were below basic in reading.

00:16:29.720 --> 00:16:32.519
40%. They're already behind the curve right as

00:16:32.519 --> 00:16:35.279
they need those skills most. That has long -term

00:16:35.279 --> 00:16:37.879
consequences. You see colleges complaining they

00:16:37.879 --> 00:16:40.100
have to do remedial teaching. Even good colleges,

00:16:40.379 --> 00:16:43.139
yeah. Students arrive unprepared. And think about

00:16:43.139 --> 00:16:47.100
vocational training, too. Modern equipment? complex

00:16:47.100 --> 00:16:50.399
manuals. If you can't read and comprehend well,

00:16:50.840 --> 00:16:53.179
it's a huge barrier. It really doesn't bode well

00:16:53.179 --> 00:16:55.000
for the economy in the 21st century, does it?

00:16:55.120 --> 00:16:57.779
Not at all. What a journey today, huh? We went

00:16:57.779 --> 00:17:00.360
from royal pageantry and protests to the Fed's

00:17:00.360 --> 00:17:03.080
tightrope walk, political party strategies, campaign

00:17:03.080 --> 00:17:05.900
tech, billion dollar races, and Pentagon spending.

00:17:06.140 --> 00:17:09.319
and ended up with some really sobering stats

00:17:09.319 --> 00:17:11.740
about our schools. It's a lot to take in. It

00:17:11.740 --> 00:17:14.660
really is. But it shows how interconnected everything

00:17:14.660 --> 00:17:17.819
is, doesn't it? Global stuff, the economy, politics,

00:17:18.359 --> 00:17:20.779
even basic education, it all weaves together

00:17:20.779 --> 00:17:23.299
to shape where we're heading. Absolutely. So

00:17:23.299 --> 00:17:26.200
as you... Our listeners reflect on all these

00:17:26.200 --> 00:17:28.220
different pieces we've unpacked today. Here's

00:17:28.220 --> 00:17:30.460
maybe a final thought to chew on. Given that

00:17:30.460 --> 00:17:32.539
shift, we talked about podcasts becoming these

00:17:32.539 --> 00:17:35.200
major centers for political conversation and

00:17:35.200 --> 00:17:37.019
also considering the challenges in critical thinking

00:17:37.019 --> 00:17:39.660
and basic skills highlighted by those education

00:17:39.660 --> 00:17:42.680
numbers. What role do you think informed, engaged

00:17:42.680 --> 00:17:45.640
listeners like yourself actually play in shaping

00:17:45.640 --> 00:17:48.259
that political landscape and in demanding accountability

00:17:48.259 --> 00:17:49.319
for our collective future?
