WEBVTT 00:00:00.000 --> 00:00:02.040 Welcome to the Deep Dive. We're here to help 00:00:02.040 --> 00:00:05.200 you cut through all that noise and really get 00:00:05.200 --> 00:00:07.200 to the core insights from the information you 00:00:07.200 --> 00:00:09.439 share with us. You know, in a world just flooded 00:00:09.439 --> 00:00:12.279 with headlines, our goal is simple, clarity, 00:00:12.699 --> 00:00:14.980 and maybe those aha moments that help you feel 00:00:14.980 --> 00:00:17.739 genuinely well -informed. Today, we're not just 00:00:17.739 --> 00:00:19.519 looking at headlines in isolation. We're sort 00:00:19.519 --> 00:00:21.940 of tracing the connections, those invisible threads 00:00:21.940 --> 00:00:25.679 between political moves, everything from local 00:00:25.679 --> 00:00:28.379 deployments right up to big executive power questions. 00:00:28.600 --> 00:00:30.399 We'll see how they ripple outwards, shaping our 00:00:30.399 --> 00:00:33.060 economy, our society. We want to reveal some 00:00:33.060 --> 00:00:35.479 of the forces really at play right now. We'll 00:00:35.479 --> 00:00:37.500 be drawing on recent news reports, stuff about 00:00:37.500 --> 00:00:39.780 Trump world, and also a detailed look at key 00:00:39.780 --> 00:00:42.439 indicators just ahead of this week's big Federal 00:00:42.439 --> 00:00:45.659 Reserve meeting. OK, let's unpack this. It's 00:00:45.659 --> 00:00:47.460 quite a collection. So kicking us off, let's 00:00:47.460 --> 00:00:49.359 dive into something pretty contentious. Former 00:00:49.359 --> 00:00:51.719 President Trump's, well, his shifting focus for 00:00:51.719 --> 00:00:53.640 a potential National Guard deployment. He initially 00:00:53.640 --> 00:00:55.640 talked about Chicago, right? But our sources 00:00:55.640 --> 00:00:58.719 say the target's now Memphis. What's behind that 00:00:58.719 --> 00:01:00.939 specific change, especially after the pushback 00:01:00.939 --> 00:01:04.400 from Illinois Governor Pritzker? Yeah, that pushback 00:01:04.400 --> 00:01:07.659 likely made Chicago, let's say, politically difficult. 00:01:08.799 --> 00:01:10.900 And a key thing here is the difference between 00:01:10.900 --> 00:01:14.420 the stated goal and what might be the implied 00:01:14.420 --> 00:01:17.500 goal. Nominally, Trump says it's about fighting 00:01:17.500 --> 00:01:19.459 crime in Memphis. He called it deeply troubled, 00:01:19.659 --> 00:01:21.859 pointed out it has the highest crime rate. Fair 00:01:21.859 --> 00:01:25.560 enough on the surface, but our sources also read 00:01:25.560 --> 00:01:28.640 this clearly as an attempt to intimidate a blue 00:01:28.640 --> 00:01:31.579 city in a red state. So it really begs the question, 00:01:32.739 --> 00:01:35.260 is this... Truly about crime or is it more of 00:01:35.260 --> 00:01:37.579 a political signal, a show of force in a particular 00:01:37.579 --> 00:01:39.939 context? And that tension definitely comes through 00:01:39.939 --> 00:01:41.840 in the local reactions. You've got Tennessee's 00:01:41.840 --> 00:01:43.599 Governor Lee and Senator Blackburn supporting 00:01:43.599 --> 00:01:45.939 it. Blackburn seemed quite enthusiastic, actually, 00:01:45.939 --> 00:01:47.819 about federal troops. But then on the ground, 00:01:48.319 --> 00:01:50.799 it's starkly different. Memphis Mayor Paul Young, 00:01:50.819 --> 00:01:53.260 who is black, was incredibly clear. He said, 00:01:53.260 --> 00:01:55.299 and I'm quoting here, I want to be clear, I did 00:01:55.299 --> 00:01:57.480 not ask for the National Guard and I don't think 00:01:57.480 --> 00:02:00.319 it's the way to drive down crime. Very direct. 00:02:00.840 --> 00:02:03.900 And Shelby County Mayor Lee Harris. even deeper 00:02:03.900 --> 00:02:07.459 concerns. He actually said, I'm scared. Can you 00:02:07.459 --> 00:02:10.680 imagine? Don't send folks in military fatigues 00:02:10.680 --> 00:02:13.080 with semi -automatic weapons to patrol our streets. 00:02:13.599 --> 00:02:16.280 He added, I want less crime, but I need America. 00:02:16.820 --> 00:02:18.800 powerful stuff. Plus, he mentioned practical 00:02:18.800 --> 00:02:21.199 worries, too. Local budgets, the jails already 00:02:21.199 --> 00:02:23.099 full. It really makes you think, doesn't it, 00:02:23.199 --> 00:02:25.539 about the purpose of law enforcement when locals 00:02:25.539 --> 00:02:28.340 fear federal intervention like that? It does. 00:02:28.699 --> 00:02:31.560 And looking broader, the historical context is 00:02:31.560 --> 00:02:33.759 just vital here, especially with the racial lens 00:02:33.759 --> 00:02:36.500 in the South. We have a note from a reader, B 00:02:36.500 --> 00:02:38.879 .C., a former Memphis resident, who gives this 00:02:38.879 --> 00:02:42.090 really crucial perspective. They point out that 00:02:42.090 --> 00:02:44.469 Southern police forces historically evolved from 00:02:44.469 --> 00:02:46.430 slave patrols. There's always been a racial element. 00:02:46.729 --> 00:02:48.590 And because of that history, Black Southerners 00:02:48.590 --> 00:02:50.750 have, well, never fully trusted law enforcement. 00:02:50.870 --> 00:02:52.830 It's a deep -seated thing. Right. Generations 00:02:52.830 --> 00:02:55.229 of mistrust. Exactly. So deploying the Guard, 00:02:55.770 --> 00:02:57.889 it wouldn't be seen as help. It'd be seen as 00:02:57.889 --> 00:03:01.169 a naked show of force. That's the reader's term. 00:03:01.789 --> 00:03:04.229 It would likely just unite Black Memphians against 00:03:04.229 --> 00:03:07.229 it, possibly creating a really explosive situation, 00:03:07.729 --> 00:03:10.469 especially if troops end up concentrated in black 00:03:10.469 --> 00:03:13.150 areas, kind of like after MLK's assassination. 00:03:13.370 --> 00:03:15.909 Wow. So the real story isn't just crime stats 00:03:15.909 --> 00:03:19.849 or legality. It's how that deep historical mistrust 00:03:19.849 --> 00:03:23.870 can turn a supposed federal solution into, well, 00:03:24.050 --> 00:03:26.210 a powder keg. It could backfire completely. And 00:03:26.210 --> 00:03:28.110 there's even a legal angle challenging these 00:03:28.110 --> 00:03:30.599 deployments, right? Adds another layer. A federal 00:03:30.599 --> 00:03:33.400 judge just on September 2 ruled that using the 00:03:33.400 --> 00:03:36.159 National Guard in LA violated the Posse Comitatus 00:03:36.159 --> 00:03:38.819 Act. That's the law stopping the military from 00:03:38.819 --> 00:03:41.099 being used for domestic law enforcement, barring 00:03:41.099 --> 00:03:44.219 very specific exceptions. That case is on appeal, 00:03:44.340 --> 00:03:46.699 sure, but it shows the courts are looking at 00:03:46.699 --> 00:03:48.759 this use of executive power. There's only something 00:03:48.759 --> 00:03:52.120 to watch. So, OK, beyond these domestic deployments, 00:03:52.180 --> 00:03:54.180 these big questions about executive power, they're 00:03:54.180 --> 00:03:56.879 also playing out internationally. We've got recent 00:03:56.879 --> 00:03:58.960 kinetic strikes and, of course, the whole TikTok 00:03:58.960 --> 00:04:02.719 saga. First, the strikes. Sources say the U .S. 00:04:02.900 --> 00:04:05.840 destroyed a second boat, alleged Venezuelan drug 00:04:05.840 --> 00:04:09.120 runner terrorists on Trump's orders. Three people 00:04:09.120 --> 00:04:12.139 died. Trump announced it himself on social media, 00:04:12.460 --> 00:04:15.419 called it a second kinetic strike against extraordinarily 00:04:15.419 --> 00:04:17.959 violent drug trafficking cartels threatening 00:04:17.959 --> 00:04:20.160 U .S. security. Yeah, what's striking about that 00:04:20.160 --> 00:04:21.839 is that it connects to broader questions about 00:04:21.839 --> 00:04:24.300 executive power across different administrations. 00:04:24.860 --> 00:04:26.860 Our sources argue, look, is this really that 00:04:26.860 --> 00:04:29.540 different from earlier military ops, drone strikes 00:04:29.540 --> 00:04:32.600 under Bush, Obama, even Trump previously? Congress 00:04:32.600 --> 00:04:34.860 often had little say. Civilians sometimes got 00:04:34.860 --> 00:04:38.019 killed. Good point. The deeper issue here. they 00:04:38.019 --> 00:04:41.339 suggest, is Congress kind of giving up its power 00:04:41.339 --> 00:04:43.420 over time, ceding more powers to the executive 00:04:43.420 --> 00:04:45.759 branch. They even mentioned Biden's approach, 00:04:45.959 --> 00:04:48.439 stopping drone strikes, limiting them to military 00:04:48.439 --> 00:04:50.800 targets as maybe a model for a new War Powers 00:04:50.800 --> 00:04:52.660 Act. There seems to be a desire to rebalance 00:04:52.660 --> 00:04:56.319 things. That idea of Congress abrogating its 00:04:56.319 --> 00:04:58.779 power, that's quite stark. What does that mean 00:04:58.779 --> 00:05:01.120 long term for checks and balances if power keeps 00:05:01.120 --> 00:05:05.550 shifting like that? And then TikTok. A different 00:05:05.550 --> 00:05:07.990 kind of executive move, but just as significant 00:05:07.990 --> 00:05:11.589 maybe. Congress passed a law, sell TikTok to 00:05:11.589 --> 00:05:15.149 non -Chinese owners. But Trump, so to say he's 00:05:15.149 --> 00:05:18.350 just refused to enforce it, given himself and 00:05:18.350 --> 00:05:21.569 TikTok. three extensions when only one was apparently 00:05:21.569 --> 00:05:24.069 allowed. Right. And his stance shifted, didn't 00:05:24.069 --> 00:05:26.910 it? He was initially very anti -China, anti -Dick 00:05:26.910 --> 00:05:28.949 talk. But then the content started looking more 00:05:28.949 --> 00:05:31.290 pro -Trump. Likely influenced by Beijing's ability 00:05:31.290 --> 00:05:33.089 to tweak the algorithm, yeah. And maybe he didn't 00:05:33.089 --> 00:05:35.269 want to be the guy who killed TikTok for younger 00:05:35.269 --> 00:05:37.470 voters. It really throws that tension into sharp 00:05:37.470 --> 00:05:39.850 relief, doesn't it? National security versus 00:05:39.850 --> 00:05:42.410 political calculation versus what Congress actually 00:05:42.410 --> 00:05:44.529 intended. Now, the White House says there's a 00:05:44.529 --> 00:05:46.810 framework for a deal. Trump's supposed to meet 00:05:46.810 --> 00:05:50.180 Xi Jinping this week. knows the details exactly 00:05:50.180 --> 00:05:53.079 zero details yeah and there's a lot of skepticism 00:05:53.079 --> 00:05:55.500 about whether it'll actually match what Congress 00:05:55.500 --> 00:05:59.199 wanted she is let's face it a very shrewd negotiator 00:05:59.199 --> 00:06:01.639 he probably knows Trump doesn't really want to 00:06:01.639 --> 00:06:03.660 shut the platform down so the likely outcome 00:06:03.660 --> 00:06:06.199 is our sources guess it'll be a deal that looks 00:06:06.199 --> 00:06:08.560 a bit like divestment but isn't really you know 00:06:08.560 --> 00:06:10.899 a political win on paper but the core security 00:06:10.899 --> 00:06:14.350 issue probably still there Classic leverage play. 00:06:14.970 --> 00:06:17.230 The real goal might not be the stated one. OK, 00:06:17.350 --> 00:06:19.610 this next part. This is where, as our sources 00:06:19.610 --> 00:06:22.250 say, the corruption is right out in the open. 00:06:22.750 --> 00:06:25.069 Pretty strong words. A New York Times report. 00:06:28.560 --> 00:06:31.300 Al Nahan from the UAE ruling family invested, 00:06:31.360 --> 00:06:33.199 and maybe we should put that in air quotes, $2 00:06:33.199 --> 00:06:35.839 billion into something called World Liberty Financial. 00:06:35.980 --> 00:06:38.000 Described as a Trump family crypto scam. Yeah. 00:06:38.240 --> 00:06:41.899 And then just weeks later, the UAE, sort of unexpectedly, 00:06:42.480 --> 00:06:45.459 gets access to hundreds of thousands of these 00:06:45.459 --> 00:06:48.189 super advanced, scarce computer chips. the ones 00:06:48.189 --> 00:06:51.649 needed for AI. The implication of a direct quid 00:06:51.649 --> 00:06:54.910 pro quo and exchange is called extremely obvious 00:06:54.910 --> 00:06:58.250 by our sources. What makes this alleged deal 00:06:58.250 --> 00:07:01.310 seem so blatant compared to other maybe grayer 00:07:01.310 --> 00:07:03.649 areas? Well, according to the sources, it's precisely 00:07:03.649 --> 00:07:05.910 the brazenness that's so concerning. It's just 00:07:05.910 --> 00:07:08.490 out there. They argue it might actually force 00:07:08.490 --> 00:07:10.649 the hand of the next administration. They might 00:07:10.649 --> 00:07:12.819 feel they have no choice but to take action, 00:07:12.920 --> 00:07:14.560 even if they worry about the political optics 00:07:14.560 --> 00:07:16.339 of investigating a previous president. Because 00:07:16.339 --> 00:07:18.620 not acting normalizes it. Exactly. They bring 00:07:18.620 --> 00:07:21.120 up examples like Bob Menendez, Rod Blagojevich, 00:07:21.339 --> 00:07:23.500 politicians who maybe thought they were untouchable, 00:07:23.540 --> 00:07:26.060 but eventually faced consequences. It's a critical 00:07:26.060 --> 00:07:28.399 point about accountability, isn't it? When things 00:07:28.399 --> 00:07:31.040 seem this overt, the pressure builds on institutions 00:07:31.040 --> 00:07:33.959 to respond or risk losing even more public trust. 00:07:34.240 --> 00:07:37.779 And almost on cue, seemingly related, Trump files 00:07:37.779 --> 00:07:40.079 this huge lawsuit against the New York Times. 00:07:40.480 --> 00:07:44.310 $15 billion for defamation. calls it a degenerate 00:07:44.310 --> 00:07:47.110 paper, claims libel because their Kamala Harris 00:07:47.110 --> 00:07:49.949 endorsement was dead center on the front page. 00:07:50.370 --> 00:07:52.949 Which, legally speaking. Our sources call it 00:07:52.949 --> 00:07:55.370 one of the most laughable legal theories ever. 00:07:55.850 --> 00:07:58.110 They see it basically as a shakedown operation, 00:07:58.430 --> 00:08:00.129 quite a reaction to reporting they don't like. 00:08:00.490 --> 00:08:02.569 Using the courts as a weapon, perhaps? Seems 00:08:02.569 --> 00:08:05.490 that way. Okay, so as all these political dramas 00:08:05.490 --> 00:08:08.129 are swirling, they inevitably cast a shadow onto 00:08:08.129 --> 00:08:11.009 the economy. Let's pivot now. How are these political 00:08:11.009 --> 00:08:13.569 currents hitting key financial institutions, 00:08:14.209 --> 00:08:16.490 especially the Federal Reserve? Trump's stated 00:08:16.490 --> 00:08:18.189 goal, remember, was basically turning it into 00:08:18.189 --> 00:08:20.089 a branch of the Trump Organization. He's had 00:08:20.089 --> 00:08:22.410 some wins and losses there. On the win side for 00:08:22.410 --> 00:08:24.870 him, the Senate confirmed Stephen Marin. Trump's 00:08:24.870 --> 00:08:27.930 pick for a Fed seat. It was narrow, 48 -47. Marin 00:08:27.930 --> 00:08:29.550 was a White House staffer. He'll take a leave 00:08:29.550 --> 00:08:32.590 of absence. But the worry is huge. Will he be 00:08:32.590 --> 00:08:34.870 independent or just a mouthpiece for Trump? Right. 00:08:34.990 --> 00:08:37.340 A clear conflict of interest. And our sources 00:08:37.340 --> 00:08:40.779 say this conflict has become normalized. Even 00:08:40.779 --> 00:08:43.840 Senator Susan Collins voted yes, which, you know, 00:08:44.100 --> 00:08:45.980 might have drawn bipartisan outrage not long 00:08:45.980 --> 00:08:48.480 ago. It feels like the expectation of Fed independence 00:08:48.480 --> 00:08:50.600 has really shifted. It's a significant point 00:08:50.600 --> 00:08:53.080 about institutions, definitely, but it's balanced 00:08:53.080 --> 00:08:56.419 by a notable loss for Trump's influence attempt. 00:08:56.840 --> 00:08:59.860 He tried to fire Fed member Lisa Cook. She's 00:08:59.860 --> 00:09:02.200 a black appointee of Biden's. The administration 00:09:02.200 --> 00:09:05.059 claimed cause, citing alleged mortgage fraud. 00:09:05.620 --> 00:09:08.340 Cook sued. And a DC Circuit Court panel ruled 00:09:08.340 --> 00:09:10.460 two to one that, nope, the firing wasn't legal. 00:09:11.019 --> 00:09:13.080 That raises big questions about just how much 00:09:13.080 --> 00:09:15.240 power the executive really has over the flood, 00:09:15.720 --> 00:09:18.159 even if they want more. So what happens now with 00:09:18.159 --> 00:09:20.340 Cook? Well, the expectation is the White House 00:09:20.340 --> 00:09:22.730 appeals to the Supreme Court. Scotus. And that 00:09:22.730 --> 00:09:25.850 sets up this immovable object meets irresistible 00:09:25.850 --> 00:09:29.649 force scenario. Because SCOTUS has hinted before, 00:09:29.730 --> 00:09:31.649 you know, presidents should keep their grimy 00:09:31.649 --> 00:09:33.789 paws off the Fed. Right. Independence is key. 00:09:34.350 --> 00:09:36.750 But they also tend to lean towards strong executive 00:09:36.750 --> 00:09:40.269 power generally. So who knows? And it's urgent. 00:09:40.850 --> 00:09:43.269 There's a massive Fed meeting this week. interest 00:09:43.269 --> 00:09:45.669 rates. Trump would probably love to have Cook 00:09:45.669 --> 00:09:48.049 out before that meeting to influence the outcome. 00:09:48.409 --> 00:09:50.710 It's a really high stakes fight over who controls 00:09:50.710 --> 00:09:52.669 the country's money supply. Yeah, absolutely. 00:09:52.789 --> 00:09:54.909 So while Wall Street's got like tunnel vision 00:09:54.909 --> 00:09:57.009 on that Wednesday meeting, it's probably smart, 00:09:57.190 --> 00:09:59.590 as the old strategist Musashi said, to take a 00:09:59.590 --> 00:10:02.970 wider view, look at more data points. So what 00:10:02.970 --> 00:10:05.950 really matters right now? Our sources flag three 00:10:05.950 --> 00:10:08.669 key indicators that paint a fuller picture. Indicator 00:10:08.669 --> 00:10:12.759 one, the two year treasury yield. It's at 3 .53 00:10:12.759 --> 00:10:15.879 % currently. That level has history. It's apparently 00:10:15.879 --> 00:10:17.779 right where it stopped going down before that 00:10:17.779 --> 00:10:20.159 50 basis point rate cut last September. It's 00:10:20.159 --> 00:10:21.899 the part of the yield curve most sensitive to 00:10:21.899 --> 00:10:24.220 Fed policy and where it is now. It's acting as 00:10:24.220 --> 00:10:26.399 a contrarian signal given almost everyone expense 00:10:26.399 --> 00:10:28.480 multiple rate cuts. It hints the market might 00:10:28.480 --> 00:10:31.059 be bracing for something different. And digging 00:10:31.059 --> 00:10:34.379 into that expectation for cuts. If you look at 00:10:34.379 --> 00:10:36.419 indicator number two prediction markets versus 00:10:36.419 --> 00:10:39.220 futures markets, you see a gap, a real divergence. 00:10:39.500 --> 00:10:43.299 For the September meeting, CME FedWatch, which 00:10:43.299 --> 00:10:46.679 uses futures, shows like a 96 .2 % chance of 00:10:46.679 --> 00:10:50.179 a cut. Super high. OK. But Polymarket, an online 00:10:50.179 --> 00:10:52.899 prediction market, it's lower, at 90%. Still 00:10:52.899 --> 00:10:55.220 high, but less certain. Interesting. And look 00:10:55.220 --> 00:10:59.659 out to December. CME is at 73 .8 % cumulative 00:10:59.659 --> 00:11:04.169 probability of cuts. Polymarket. Only 60%. Polymarket 00:11:04.169 --> 00:11:06.289 is just more conservative, more skeptical than 00:11:06.289 --> 00:11:08.649 the futures folks. Our sources say futures traders 00:11:08.649 --> 00:11:11.190 might be just extrapolating the past as the future. 00:11:11.669 --> 00:11:14.470 Based on weak labor data, Trump's fresher. So 00:11:14.470 --> 00:11:16.870 they might be missing something. Possibly. Because 00:11:16.870 --> 00:11:19.870 while Q3 stagflation was obvious, the forecast 00:11:19.870 --> 00:11:22.549 hints growth and inflation might actually pick 00:11:22.549 --> 00:11:25.009 up again in Q4. That would totally change the 00:11:25.009 --> 00:11:26.929 rate cut calculus and could catch a lot of people 00:11:26.929 --> 00:11:29.789 flat -footed. OK. And the third indicator, market 00:11:29.789 --> 00:11:32.340 structure. Which is apparently at extremes right 00:11:32.340 --> 00:11:34.159 now. Yeah, this is really interesting the options 00:11:34.159 --> 00:11:36.379 market has what's called long gamma Positioning 00:11:36.379 --> 00:11:38.879 by market makers positioned at plus 11 apparently 00:11:38.879 --> 00:11:43.120 okay long gamma What does that mean for us think 00:11:43.120 --> 00:11:46.139 of it like built -in shock absorbers? It tends 00:11:46.139 --> 00:11:48.879 to mechanically suppress volatility makes things 00:11:48.879 --> 00:11:51.799 seem calmer than they might be underneath ah 00:11:51.799 --> 00:11:55.399 Okay, but there's another extreme right the systematic 00:11:55.399 --> 00:11:59.490 strategies Things like vol control funds, CTAs, 00:11:59.789 --> 00:12:01.730 those automated trading systems. The ones that 00:12:01.730 --> 00:12:03.909 buy when things go up and sell and they go down? 00:12:04.190 --> 00:12:06.750 Exactly. They are apparently at near five year 00:12:06.750 --> 00:12:09.269 highs in equity exposure. They've got a lot. 00:12:09.370 --> 00:12:12.470 So what that means is they basically become sellers 00:12:12.470 --> 00:12:15.649 waiting for a trigger. They are totally poised 00:12:15.649 --> 00:12:19.029 to deleverage, to sell hard if volatility suddenly 00:12:19.029 --> 00:12:21.700 picks up. could lead to really sharp, fast moves 00:12:21.700 --> 00:12:25.500 down. Wow. So putting those three together, what's 00:12:25.500 --> 00:12:28.340 the big picture? It reveals this potential disconnect, 00:12:28.460 --> 00:12:30.480 right? Everyone's expecting rate cuts. Things 00:12:30.480 --> 00:12:32.440 feel kind of calm on the surface because of that 00:12:32.440 --> 00:12:34.779 gamma positioning. But underneath, the market 00:12:34.779 --> 00:12:37.240 structure is coiled tight. It's sensitive. A 00:12:37.240 --> 00:12:39.360 small shift, a little uptick in volatility could 00:12:39.360 --> 00:12:41.700 trigger a wave of selling from those systematic 00:12:41.700 --> 00:12:43.840 funds. It suggests this column might be more 00:12:43.840 --> 00:12:46.139 fragile than it looks. A hidden vulnerability. 00:12:47.419 --> 00:12:50.490 OK. Shifting gears again, let's talk about something 00:12:50.490 --> 00:12:53.210 really crucial socially and politically. Black 00:12:53.210 --> 00:12:55.870 unemployment. It's seeing a really troubling 00:12:55.870 --> 00:12:59.710 rise. The overall rate is 4 .3%, up a bit from 00:12:59.710 --> 00:13:03.870 4 % in January. White unemployment, 3 .7%, also 00:13:03.870 --> 00:13:06.830 up slightly from 3 .5%. But for black workers, 00:13:07.330 --> 00:13:10.549 sources say it's skyrocketed to 7 .5%. That's 00:13:10.549 --> 00:13:12.269 a full percentage point higher than just back 00:13:12.269 --> 00:13:14.710 in January. That's not just a small change. It 00:13:14.710 --> 00:13:17.720 feels significant. It really underscores how 00:13:17.720 --> 00:13:19.799 economic shifts don't hit everyone equally, does 00:13:19.799 --> 00:13:22.240 it? The sources attribute this trend to a few 00:13:22.240 --> 00:13:24.159 things. Federal government layoffs hitting black 00:13:24.159 --> 00:13:26.919 workers harder, the crackdown on DEI diversity, 00:13:27.080 --> 00:13:28.779 equity, and inclusion initiatives. Right, that's 00:13:28.779 --> 00:13:30.830 been controversial. And also just... The fact 00:13:30.830 --> 00:13:32.929 that the industries often hit first in a slowdown 00:13:32.929 --> 00:13:35.289 tend to employ more black workers proportionally. 00:13:35.629 --> 00:13:37.470 Socially, this is just bad news for everyone, 00:13:37.690 --> 00:13:40.470 as one source put it. Black communities are really 00:13:40.470 --> 00:13:43.250 bearing the brunt here. Economic hardship obviously 00:13:43.250 --> 00:13:45.350 increases tensions, especially when you layer 00:13:45.350 --> 00:13:47.370 on political provocations like we discussed in 00:13:47.370 --> 00:13:50.029 Memphis. Rising black unemployment is often seen 00:13:50.029 --> 00:13:52.230 as a leading indicator of a broader economic 00:13:52.230 --> 00:13:54.649 slowdown. That could really hurt the party in 00:13:54.649 --> 00:13:57.710 power come the midterms, plus any resulting civil 00:13:57.710 --> 00:14:00.639 unrest riots, as some might frame it. which sources 00:14:00.639 --> 00:14:03.419 even suggest Trump might be provoking. That tends 00:14:03.419 --> 00:14:06.320 to rebound on the party in power, too. Makes 00:14:06.320 --> 00:14:08.279 the country look out of control. It's a nasty 00:14:08.279 --> 00:14:11.659 feedback loop. Economic pain, political fallout, 00:14:12.159 --> 00:14:14.840 potential instability. OK, so we've covered a 00:14:14.840 --> 00:14:16.659 lot of ground today. We've navigated through 00:14:16.659 --> 00:14:19.919 some really complex political maneuvering. you 00:14:19.919 --> 00:14:22.600 know, federal deployments, challenges to institutions 00:14:22.600 --> 00:14:25.220 like the Fed and Congress's power. And we've 00:14:25.220 --> 00:14:27.740 explored these critical economic signals, trying 00:14:27.740 --> 00:14:29.919 to get beyond the surface noise to see the market 00:14:29.919 --> 00:14:32.460 dynamics and the real societal shifts happening. 00:14:32.779 --> 00:14:34.379 We've definitely seen that direct interplay, 00:14:34.480 --> 00:14:37.000 haven't we? Presidential actions, court challenges, 00:14:37.620 --> 00:14:39.879 market bets, and then the real world economic 00:14:39.879 --> 00:14:42.100 pain, like rising unemployment. It's all connected. 00:14:42.480 --> 00:14:44.039 Absolutely. It's never just one thing in isolation. 00:14:44.159 --> 00:14:46.500 So here's something to leave you with, something 00:14:46.500 --> 00:14:49.419 to mull over as you process all this. considering 00:14:49.419 --> 00:14:51.700 this really volatile political climate we've 00:14:51.700 --> 00:14:53.700 discussed and these frankly quite concerning 00:14:53.700 --> 00:14:57.460 economic indicators, how might public confidence 00:14:57.460 --> 00:15:00.259 and maybe global perceptions of stability or 00:15:00.259 --> 00:15:02.360 instability, how might that influence both investor 00:15:02.360 --> 00:15:05.500 behavior and just general societal cohesion in 00:15:05.500 --> 00:15:07.039 the months ahead? That's the big question, isn't 00:15:07.039 --> 00:15:08.019 it? Something to really think about.