WEBVTT 00:00:00.000 --> 00:00:03.540 Welcome to the deep dive, your shortcut to understanding 00:00:03.540 --> 00:00:06.080 the complex forces shaping our world right now. 00:00:06.190 --> 00:00:08.130 Yeah, we're here to cut through the noise. Today 00:00:08.130 --> 00:00:10.570 we're unpacking a stack of recent reports and 00:00:10.570 --> 00:00:13.990 analyses. We're looking at everything from shifts 00:00:13.990 --> 00:00:16.530 in governmental power and the judicial system 00:00:16.530 --> 00:00:18.850 right through to the evolving electorate and, 00:00:18.850 --> 00:00:22.550 well, some hidden impacts of policy. We'll be 00:00:22.550 --> 00:00:25.210 drawing insights from electoral vote news reports 00:00:25.210 --> 00:00:29.690 and also a deep dive into how a historic immigration 00:00:29.690 --> 00:00:32.350 drop is changing the job market. And our mission 00:00:32.350 --> 00:00:35.200 really is to help you quickly grasp. how these 00:00:35.200 --> 00:00:38.119 things connect, you know, uncovering some surprising 00:00:38.119 --> 00:00:40.299 facts and understanding the broader implications. 00:00:40.840 --> 00:00:42.500 Exactly. And what's particularly striking here, 00:00:42.500 --> 00:00:45.420 I think, is how seemingly disconnected events 00:00:45.420 --> 00:00:47.859 often weave into a much larger narrative. Right. 00:00:48.020 --> 00:00:50.219 So we're going to explore these pieces, not just 00:00:50.219 --> 00:00:52.579 as isolated facts, but really to reveal the so 00:00:52.579 --> 00:00:54.859 what's for you, helping you see that bigger picture 00:00:54.859 --> 00:00:56.920 and maybe encouraging you to think critically 00:00:56.920 --> 00:00:59.039 about the information we all encounter daily. 00:00:59.229 --> 00:01:01.630 Absolutely. So let's start with a look at some 00:01:01.630 --> 00:01:04.030 claims regarding governmental power and how it's 00:01:04.030 --> 00:01:06.549 reportedly being wielded in ways that are definitely, 00:01:06.829 --> 00:01:09.950 well, raising some eyebrows and alongside some 00:01:09.950 --> 00:01:12.829 very specific legal challenges. This is where 00:01:12.829 --> 00:01:15.689 we uncover some truly compelling details. Indeed. 00:01:16.230 --> 00:01:19.349 And these reports, they really compel us to examine 00:01:19.349 --> 00:01:21.590 the reliability of the sources detailing these 00:01:21.590 --> 00:01:24.390 events and maybe consider the motivations behind 00:01:24.390 --> 00:01:26.810 the actions described, connecting them to broader 00:01:26.810 --> 00:01:29.659 ideas about you know, institutional integrity 00:01:29.659 --> 00:01:32.900 and public trust. This raises an important question. 00:01:33.739 --> 00:01:36.799 How do we gauge the veracity of information when 00:01:36.799 --> 00:01:38.780 the stated motivations of the people involved 00:01:38.780 --> 00:01:41.659 might be, well, clearly aligned. Right. Take 00:01:41.659 --> 00:01:43.760 the Ghislaine Maxwell transcript, for instance. 00:01:44.180 --> 00:01:46.379 The Department of Justice recently released transcripts 00:01:46.379 --> 00:01:48.659 of two interviews between Deputy A .G. Todd Blanche 00:01:48.659 --> 00:01:50.959 and Ghislaine Maxwell. OK. The reports we saw 00:01:50.959 --> 00:01:53.019 stated quite clearly there was nothing in the 00:01:53.019 --> 00:01:55.159 transcripts that incriminates Donald Trump. And 00:01:55.159 --> 00:01:57.500 that's precisely where that critical thinking 00:01:57.500 --> 00:02:01.620 comes in, isn't it? The sources we've seen suggest 00:02:01.620 --> 00:02:05.260 that both Blanche and Maxwell had an, let's say, 00:02:05.659 --> 00:02:08.860 extremely strong motivation to avoid incriminating 00:02:08.860 --> 00:02:12.509 Trump. Furthermore, one report provocatively 00:02:12.509 --> 00:02:15.050 describes the Department of Justice itself as 00:02:15.050 --> 00:02:18.469 a wholly -owned subsidiary of the Trump Organization, 00:02:18.990 --> 00:02:21.469 which naturally leads to questions about the 00:02:21.469 --> 00:02:23.949 impartiality of such a release. Sure. And beyond 00:02:23.949 --> 00:02:26.629 that, the reports prompt us to ask, why did it 00:02:26.629 --> 00:02:28.689 take nearly a month to release the transcript? 00:02:28.770 --> 00:02:30.430 Yeah, what was happening then? Right, what was 00:02:30.430 --> 00:02:32.449 being done with the recordings in that time? 00:02:32.729 --> 00:02:35.289 And perhaps more intriguing, why was Maxwell 00:02:35.289 --> 00:02:38.090 moved from a, quote, pretty bad prison in Florida 00:02:38.090 --> 00:02:40.229 to a much more comfortable federal facility, 00:02:40.449 --> 00:02:43.169 often nicknamed Club Fed in Texas? Especially 00:02:43.169 --> 00:02:44.990 when her crimes should have made her ineligible, 00:02:45.150 --> 00:02:47.810 reportedly. Exactly. Her crimes should have made 00:02:47.810 --> 00:02:51.949 her ineligible for that kind of move. The Occam's 00:02:51.949 --> 00:02:54.889 razor explanation. Essentially, the simplest 00:02:54.889 --> 00:02:57.250 solution is often the most likely offered in 00:02:57.250 --> 00:03:00.310 one source, is that, quote, Trump can't pardon 00:03:00.310 --> 00:03:03.169 Maxwell now, so she demanded to be moved to a 00:03:03.169 --> 00:03:05.750 much nicer prison while she waits in exchange 00:03:05.750 --> 00:03:09.330 for her cooperation. What these incidents reveal, 00:03:09.569 --> 00:03:12.509 according to some sources, is a pattern of weaponizing 00:03:12.509 --> 00:03:15.030 federal agencies not just against political opponents, 00:03:15.449 --> 00:03:18.169 perhaps, but also against traditional oversight, 00:03:18.650 --> 00:03:20.969 potentially eroding the impartiality of our legal 00:03:20.969 --> 00:03:23.879 system. That certainly paints a picture of some 00:03:23.879 --> 00:03:26.000 intricate dealings, suggesting a fundamental 00:03:26.000 --> 00:03:28.699 shift in how justice might be administered, according 00:03:28.699 --> 00:03:31.240 to these reports anyway. And this kind of scrutiny 00:03:31.240 --> 00:03:34.000 into official actions isn't limited to just specific 00:03:34.000 --> 00:03:36.219 cases like that. We see similar questions being 00:03:36.219 --> 00:03:38.580 raised, for instance, in the renewed investigation 00:03:38.580 --> 00:03:41.280 into conservative Republican John Bolton. By 00:03:41.280 --> 00:03:45.139 the FBI, which one source describes as having 00:03:45.139 --> 00:03:47.520 rapidly been transformed into the president's 00:03:47.520 --> 00:03:50.259 personal police force. This investigation is 00:03:50.259 --> 00:03:52.610 a renewed look into the possibility that Bolton 00:03:52.610 --> 00:03:55.229 shared classified information when he published 00:03:55.229 --> 00:03:58.409 his, well, his very Trump critical book back 00:03:58.409 --> 00:04:01.229 in 2020. And the points of contention here are 00:04:01.229 --> 00:04:04.210 quite stark based on the reporting. First, the 00:04:04.210 --> 00:04:07.270 book was apparently vetted by various parts of 00:04:07.270 --> 00:04:09.490 the U .S. intelligence establishment before it 00:04:09.490 --> 00:04:11.509 was published. OK, so it went through a process. 00:04:11.810 --> 00:04:13.870 It supposedly went through a process. Second, 00:04:14.050 --> 00:04:17.480 it was published on June 23, 2020. That means 00:04:17.480 --> 00:04:19.720 the five -year statute of limitations might have 00:04:19.720 --> 00:04:22.319 already run out. So, potentially too late. Making 00:04:22.319 --> 00:04:24.540 the administration about two months too late 00:04:24.540 --> 00:04:27.459 to bring charges under that statute. And perhaps 00:04:27.459 --> 00:04:30.120 most notably, the administration seems to have 00:04:30.120 --> 00:04:32.500 no problem with certain other people keeping 00:04:32.500 --> 00:04:35.420 misusing, leaking classified materials, which 00:04:35.420 --> 00:04:37.480 further calls into question the motivations behind 00:04:37.480 --> 00:04:39.480 this particular investigation, according to these 00:04:39.480 --> 00:04:42.079 analyses. Right. It suggests the selective application 00:04:42.079 --> 00:04:44.480 of the law, maybe. That's what the sources imply. 00:04:44.639 --> 00:04:47.839 It's a concerning pattern when you consider it 00:04:47.839 --> 00:04:50.779 alongside the Maxwell situation. These individual 00:04:50.779 --> 00:04:53.199 cases definitely highlight a concerning trend 00:04:53.199 --> 00:04:55.980 in the reported wielding of power. Now let's 00:04:55.980 --> 00:04:58.500 broaden our view a bit. How are these dynamics 00:04:58.500 --> 00:05:01.259 reportedly extending to specific institutions 00:05:01.259 --> 00:05:03.879 and regions across the United States? Yeah, let's 00:05:03.879 --> 00:05:06.680 look wider. We're talking direct impacts on everything 00:05:06.680 --> 00:05:10.639 from, say, urban policy to the economy. What 00:05:10.639 --> 00:05:13.040 are the broader implications these sources suggest? 00:05:13.199 --> 00:05:15.480 Well, here we need to analyze the strategic implications 00:05:15.480 --> 00:05:17.860 of these reported actions, connecting them to 00:05:17.860 --> 00:05:20.459 broader theories of executive power, economic 00:05:20.459 --> 00:05:24.180 control, and maybe the independence of key institutions. 00:05:24.779 --> 00:05:26.759 If we connect this to the bigger picture, we 00:05:26.759 --> 00:05:29.279 see what some describe as a pattern of centralized 00:05:29.279 --> 00:05:32.100 influence emerging, creating a kind of new landscape 00:05:32.100 --> 00:05:34.720 for policy and governance. Our sources suggest 00:05:34.720 --> 00:05:37.220 Donald Trump has expanded his targets beyond 00:05:37.220 --> 00:05:39.800 the traditional adversaries like media and law 00:05:39.800 --> 00:05:43.079 firms to include blue cities. Right, the cities 00:05:43.079 --> 00:05:46.560 themselves. Yeah. This is seen as a strategic 00:05:46.560 --> 00:05:49.420 move, apparently, as targeting cities is reportedly 00:05:49.420 --> 00:05:52.399 easier than targeting entire blue states, which 00:05:52.399 --> 00:05:56.019 often have more power. Initial city targets mentioned 00:05:56.019 --> 00:05:59.019 include Los Angeles, described as very brown 00:05:59.019 --> 00:06:01.379 and very blue, and it just so happens to be the 00:06:01.379 --> 00:06:03.939 current hometown of Kamala Harris and Washington, 00:06:04.060 --> 00:06:07.879 D .C., where the federal government has a, quote, 00:06:08.439 --> 00:06:11.680 legal basis for mucking around in D .C. affairs. 00:06:12.180 --> 00:06:15.029 This is described in one source as phase Aye. 00:06:15.269 --> 00:06:17.990 Phase one. And the escalation reportedly continues 00:06:17.990 --> 00:06:21.810 from there. Chicago is signaled as the next place 00:06:21.810 --> 00:06:24.050 federal troops may be deployed. Federal troops 00:06:24.050 --> 00:06:26.269 in Chicago. That's what's reported. Which one 00:06:26.269 --> 00:06:29.589 report calls a clear violation of the 1878 Posse 00:06:29.589 --> 00:06:32.470 Comitatus Act? Yeah. That's the law largely prohibiting 00:06:32.470 --> 00:06:34.610 the use of the military for domestic law enforcement 00:06:34.610 --> 00:06:37.329 without very specific authorization. Right. I 00:06:37.329 --> 00:06:39.430 remember that act. Yeah. The reports question 00:06:39.430 --> 00:06:41.569 whether the deployment of regular Army troops 00:06:41.569 --> 00:06:44.189 in town intimidating black men will cause them 00:06:44.189 --> 00:06:46.089 to think twice about what they have brought on. 00:06:46.310 --> 00:06:48.949 The use of the armed forces in non -emergency 00:06:48.949 --> 00:06:53.129 situations is characterized as a huge and illegal 00:06:53.129 --> 00:06:56.389 escalation, leading to questions about the limits 00:06:56.389 --> 00:06:59.920 of such actions and, frankly, if military generals 00:06:59.920 --> 00:07:02.779 would even follow potentially unlawful orders. 00:07:03.040 --> 00:07:05.699 That's a massive question. It presents a deeply 00:07:05.699 --> 00:07:07.819 concerning scenario, according to these reports. 00:07:08.100 --> 00:07:10.319 And New York City, Baltimore and Oakland are 00:07:10.319 --> 00:07:13.180 also reportedly on Trump's list, with him apparently 00:07:13.180 --> 00:07:15.889 stating he could Keep the troops in those places 00:07:15.889 --> 00:07:18.670 as long as he wants, which is a bold claim. Democrats 00:07:18.670 --> 00:07:21.689 have pushed back strongly, as you'd expect. Former 00:07:21.689 --> 00:07:24.129 Chicago Mayor Rahm Emanuel stated this isn't 00:07:24.129 --> 00:07:26.589 about crime, but targeting welcoming cities known 00:07:26.589 --> 00:07:29.290 as sanctuary cities and deal with immigration. 00:07:29.470 --> 00:07:31.750 OK, so framing it as an immigration issue. House 00:07:31.750 --> 00:07:34.430 Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries cited no basis, 00:07:34.610 --> 00:07:37.350 no authority. And Illinois Governor J .B. Pritzker 00:07:37.350 --> 00:07:40.149 said no emergency that warrants the president 00:07:40.149 --> 00:07:43.069 sending in federal agents. And what's perhaps 00:07:43.069 --> 00:07:45.790 even more concerning, Secretary of Defense Pete 00:07:45.790 --> 00:07:49.069 Hegseth reportedly ordered National Guard troops 00:07:49.069 --> 00:07:51.529 patrolling Washington to start carrying guns 00:07:51.529 --> 00:07:54.189 with no justification given. Ordered them to 00:07:54.189 --> 00:07:56.569 carry guns. With no justification provided in 00:07:56.569 --> 00:07:59.410 the reports, yeah. This is seen by sources as 00:07:59.410 --> 00:08:02.850 an attempt to ratchet up the tension, maybe hoping 00:08:02.850 --> 00:08:05.910 for an act of violence that could serve as a 00:08:05.910 --> 00:08:09.240 pretext for going full on martial law. That sounds 00:08:09.240 --> 00:08:12.639 incredibly serious. One source even characterizes 00:08:12.639 --> 00:08:16.620 the situation as an asymmetric war on its own 00:08:16.620 --> 00:08:19.220 people being waged by the White House. These 00:08:19.220 --> 00:08:21.779 reports, you know, taken together, depict a pattern 00:08:21.779 --> 00:08:24.439 of potential executive overreach and a blurring 00:08:24.439 --> 00:08:27.079 of lines between civilian governance and military 00:08:27.079 --> 00:08:30.079 force. It's a lot to take in. And beyond cities, 00:08:30.279 --> 00:08:32.980 reports indicate corporations are also on Trump's 00:08:32.980 --> 00:08:35.379 target list. Right, businesses too. Expected 00:08:35.379 --> 00:08:39.759 to toe his party line and quote, pay him. Examples 00:08:39.759 --> 00:08:42.720 cited include things like a 15 percent export 00:08:42.720 --> 00:08:45.580 tax on Nvidia chips and getting Intel to give 00:08:45.580 --> 00:08:47.879 him 10 percent of the corporate stock. Ten percent 00:08:47.879 --> 00:08:49.740 of the stock. That's what one source reported. 00:08:50.080 --> 00:08:52.500 That same source provocatively calls Trump the 00:08:52.500 --> 00:08:54.740 first Marxist president for pursuing what they 00:08:54.740 --> 00:08:57.159 see as state ownership of the means of production. 00:08:57.299 --> 00:08:59.340 That's quite a label. The sources also suggest 00:08:59.340 --> 00:09:01.600 Trump compares the U .S. to a department store 00:09:01.600 --> 00:09:03.980 with himself as the manager setting all the prices. 00:09:04.570 --> 00:09:06.789 Companies are reportedly, and this is pretty 00:09:06.789 --> 00:09:10.370 wild, literally being scored in Excel on their 00:09:10.370 --> 00:09:13.169 loyalty to Trump. Scored in Excel. Yeah, and 00:09:13.169 --> 00:09:15.950 are being ordered to eat the carafes, not raise 00:09:15.950 --> 00:09:20.029 prices, and just make less money. This approach 00:09:20.029 --> 00:09:22.570 is compared to central planning of the economy, 00:09:22.870 --> 00:09:25.450 sort of reminiscent of the former Soviet Union, 00:09:25.690 --> 00:09:27.830 according to these analyses. So what does that 00:09:27.830 --> 00:09:30.710 mean for businesses on the ground? Well, for 00:09:30.710 --> 00:09:33.299 businesses... This apparently creates paralysis 00:09:33.299 --> 00:09:35.879 due to high uncertainty. They don't know the 00:09:35.879 --> 00:09:38.379 rules and many rules could potentially vanish 00:09:38.379 --> 00:09:42.059 on January 20, 2029. Right. The end of a potential 00:09:42.059 --> 00:09:45.360 term. Exactly. And the irony highlighted is that 00:09:45.360 --> 00:09:48.139 Republicans have for decades vigorously opposed 00:09:48.139 --> 00:09:50.200 the government having an industrial policy and 00:09:50.200 --> 00:09:52.240 picking winners and losers. That's a core tenet, 00:09:52.279 --> 00:09:54.120 usually. But now, according to these reports, 00:09:54.419 --> 00:09:56.059 no Republicans are saying, wait a minute, sir. 00:09:56.330 --> 00:09:59.210 Even liberal economists, who might not mind industrial 00:09:59.210 --> 00:10:01.289 policy if it were carefully chosen to benefit 00:10:01.289 --> 00:10:03.909 the country, seem to object to what they see 00:10:03.909 --> 00:10:07.309 as a random mishmash of rules with no coherent 00:10:07.309 --> 00:10:09.950 strategy, or what they reportedly call blackmail. 00:10:10.470 --> 00:10:13.029 Welcome to Trump world, as one source put it. 00:10:13.370 --> 00:10:16.250 Yeah. These reports paint a picture of an emerging 00:10:16.250 --> 00:10:19.210 kind of authoritarian capitalism, where corporate 00:10:19.210 --> 00:10:22.690 loyalty not just market forces, dictates economic 00:10:22.690 --> 00:10:25.350 strategy, a profound departure from traditional 00:10:25.350 --> 00:10:28.549 American free enterprise, if true. And the influence 00:10:28.549 --> 00:10:31.350 reportedly extends even to the Federal Reserve. 00:10:31.769 --> 00:10:35.169 Ah, the Fed. Always a key institution. Trump's 00:10:35.169 --> 00:10:37.230 personal financial interests are reported to 00:10:37.230 --> 00:10:40.110 conflict with his bases, as he apparently wants 00:10:40.110 --> 00:10:42.370 interest rates to come way down because his real 00:10:42.370 --> 00:10:44.730 estate empire runs on borrowed money. Right. 00:10:44.889 --> 00:10:47.909 Lower rates help borrowers. He has threatened 00:10:47.909 --> 00:10:50.809 to fire Fed Chairman Jerome Powell if he doesn't 00:10:50.809 --> 00:10:53.590 comply. His broader goal, according to these 00:10:53.590 --> 00:10:56.070 sources, is to get control over every source 00:10:56.070 --> 00:10:58.470 of power other than the presidency. And Powell's 00:10:58.470 --> 00:11:00.450 dilemma there is significant. Lower interest 00:11:00.450 --> 00:11:02.549 rates will spark inflation, which Trump's base 00:11:02.549 --> 00:11:05.950 hates. Right. That's a direct conflict. So since 00:11:05.950 --> 00:11:09.029 Powell isn't easily swayed, reportedly, a different 00:11:09.029 --> 00:11:11.809 target is Fed Governor Lisa Cook. OK, who's Lisa 00:11:11.809 --> 00:11:14.870 Cook? She's a governor on the Fed board. Bill 00:11:14.870 --> 00:11:18.289 Pult, described as a key political ally of Trump, 00:11:19.029 --> 00:11:21.990 has claimed that Cook filed improper paperwork 00:11:21.990 --> 00:11:25.129 when getting a mortgage. OK, an accusation about 00:11:25.129 --> 00:11:27.389 paperwork? Yeah. But even if that were true, 00:11:28.190 --> 00:11:30.669 well, the process wouldn't likely be removal 00:11:30.669 --> 00:11:33.009 from the Fed board. The typical punishment would 00:11:33.009 --> 00:11:35.409 be formally charging her with bank fraud, putting 00:11:35.409 --> 00:11:38.090 her on trial. And that involves proving intent. 00:11:38.570 --> 00:11:41.350 Exactly. Fraud involves intent. Plus, the event 00:11:41.350 --> 00:11:43.750 happened before her Fed appointment. Cook, who 00:11:43.750 --> 00:11:46.149 is a black woman, refused to resign, stating, 00:11:46.450 --> 00:11:48.750 quote, I have no intention of being bullied to 00:11:48.750 --> 00:11:50.789 step down from my position because of some questions 00:11:50.789 --> 00:11:53.490 raised in a tweet. Strong response. This move 00:11:53.490 --> 00:11:55.830 is characterized in some analyses as a continuation 00:11:55.830 --> 00:11:59.129 of the unitary executive theory, that idea of 00:11:59.129 --> 00:12:01.350 unchecked presidential power within the executive 00:12:01.350 --> 00:12:04.090 branch. And what do experts say about this approach? 00:12:04.750 --> 00:12:07.590 Professor Mitchell Sollenberger calls it unprecedented, 00:12:08.009 --> 00:12:10.789 shocking, and frankly should be deeply troubling. 00:12:11.509 --> 00:12:14.289 Professor Daniel Farber views it as fitting into 00:12:14.289 --> 00:12:17.730 his use of threats of questionable legality to 00:12:17.730 --> 00:12:19.429 twist people's arms and get them to do what he 00:12:19.429 --> 00:12:22.399 wants. OK, so a lot of pressure being applied 00:12:22.399 --> 00:12:24.179 across the board, according to these reports. 00:12:24.820 --> 00:12:28.620 Let's pivot now to a significant yet maybe under 00:12:28.620 --> 00:12:32.600 -discussed economic factor, something quietly 00:12:32.600 --> 00:12:36.419 reshaping the job market and our long -term economic 00:12:36.419 --> 00:12:38.580 outlook. Yes, let's unpack the data here and 00:12:38.580 --> 00:12:41.019 explain the potential long -term implications 00:12:41.019 --> 00:12:43.720 of these demographic shifts and policy impacts. 00:12:44.059 --> 00:12:47.039 We're looking at national growth -specific industries. 00:12:47.159 --> 00:12:50.870 A key takeaway here is really how a sudden demographic 00:12:50.870 --> 00:12:54.429 shift can have these far reaching, if sometimes 00:12:54.429 --> 00:12:56.789 subtle, economic consequences. Federal Reserve 00:12:56.789 --> 00:12:58.870 Chair Jerome Powell observed that the U .S. labor 00:12:58.870 --> 00:13:01.210 market has entered what he called a curious kind 00:13:01.210 --> 00:13:03.269 of balance. A curious balance. Demand for workers 00:13:03.269 --> 00:13:05.509 has cooled. The unemployment rate held steady. 00:13:05.730 --> 00:13:08.090 But importantly, the supply of labor has slowed 00:13:08.090 --> 00:13:10.929 abruptly. And the primary cause cited for this 00:13:10.929 --> 00:13:13.629 balance. It's a dramatic swing in immigration 00:13:13.629 --> 00:13:15.929 from one of the biggest waves in U .S. history. 00:13:16.220 --> 00:13:19.399 to almost none. Wow, almost none. That's the 00:13:19.399 --> 00:13:23.360 claim. Economists are expecting subtle but lasting 00:13:23.360 --> 00:13:27.100 consequences. Now, measuring this change precisely 00:13:27.100 --> 00:13:30.120 in real time is difficult. The U .S. doesn't 00:13:30.120 --> 00:13:32.320 keep comprehensive records on people who depart 00:13:32.320 --> 00:13:34.840 the country. We don't track people leaving. Not 00:13:34.840 --> 00:13:37.000 comprehensively, no. and the Trump administration 00:13:37.000 --> 00:13:40.259 has stopped publishing regular data on deportations. 00:13:40.559 --> 00:13:42.980 Plus, people living here illegally might enter 00:13:42.980 --> 00:13:45.379 and exit without leaving any statistical trace. 00:13:45.600 --> 00:13:47.679 So the data is fuzzy. It's inherently fuzzy. 00:13:48.059 --> 00:13:50.000 Despite these measurement challenges, claims 00:13:50.000 --> 00:13:53.019 of negative net immigration have emerged. There's 00:13:53.019 --> 00:13:55.559 a report by the Pew Research Center and Homeland 00:13:55.559 --> 00:13:59.669 Security Secretary Kristi Noem claimed 1 .6 million 00:13:59.669 --> 00:14:02.289 unauthorized immigrants had left the U .S. in 00:14:02.289 --> 00:14:05.990 her first 200 days based on, quote, our own numbers 00:14:05.990 --> 00:14:08.529 without much further detail provided. OK, so 00:14:08.529 --> 00:14:10.870 claims are being made despite the data challenges. 00:14:11.169 --> 00:14:13.450 But are there tangible economic effects being 00:14:13.450 --> 00:14:16.129 felt? Yes. Between May and July, the economy 00:14:16.129 --> 00:14:18.549 added only one hundred and six thousand non -farm 00:14:18.549 --> 00:14:20.750 payrolls. That's just thirty five thousand a 00:14:20.750 --> 00:14:22.610 month. That sounds very low. It's the lowest 00:14:22.610 --> 00:14:24.690 three month stretch since the covid -19 pandemic 00:14:24.690 --> 00:14:26.980 recovery began. And the fact that the unemployment 00:14:26.980 --> 00:14:30.460 rate didn't rise at the same time suggests fewer 00:14:30.460 --> 00:14:32.340 people were entering the labor force in search 00:14:32.340 --> 00:14:35.529 of jobs. directly indicating the impact of the 00:14:35.529 --> 00:14:37.529 immigration crackdown, according to economists. 00:14:37.889 --> 00:14:39.929 Makes sense. Fewer people looking means unemployment 00:14:39.929 --> 00:14:42.649 doesn't spike, even with low job growth. Exactly. 00:14:43.250 --> 00:14:44.909 Economists surveyed by the Wall Street Journal 00:14:44.909 --> 00:14:47.370 anticipate Trump's immigration policies will 00:14:47.370 --> 00:14:50.029 subtract around 0 .2 percentage point from growth 00:14:50.029 --> 00:14:54.289 in 2025 and 0 .3 point in 2026. A noticeable 00:14:54.289 --> 00:14:56.629 drag on growth. And the drop in immigration could 00:14:56.629 --> 00:14:59.929 be more severe in certain sectors, heavily reliant 00:14:59.929 --> 00:15:02.789 on non -citizen labor. For example, back in 20... 00:15:02.669 --> 00:15:05.970 Three non -citizens made up 33 % of maids and 00:15:05.970 --> 00:15:08.590 housekeepers, 30 % of construction laborers, 00:15:09.070 --> 00:15:11.809 24 % of landscaping workers. Those are big percentages. 00:15:12.029 --> 00:15:14.110 Very significant. And the Agriculture Department 00:15:14.110 --> 00:15:16.970 estimated that 42 % of crop workers were immigrants 00:15:16.970 --> 00:15:19.879 without work authorization. So agriculture, construction, 00:15:20.240 --> 00:15:22.500 hospitality, they'd feel this acutely? Potentially, 00:15:22.820 --> 00:15:25.139 yes. The long -term outlook then raises the question 00:15:25.139 --> 00:15:28.000 of how long this low -immigration economy might 00:15:28.000 --> 00:15:30.919 last. Especially, as you mentioned, millions 00:15:30.919 --> 00:15:33.620 of migrants are reportedly stuck in transit across 00:15:33.620 --> 00:15:36.200 Latin America and plan to resume their journeys 00:15:36.200 --> 00:15:39.000 once he leaves office. That's a big unknown. 00:15:39.500 --> 00:15:41.200 Historically, the U .S. immigrant population 00:15:41.200 --> 00:15:44.519 did shrink between roughly 1930 and 1970. Oh, 00:15:44.539 --> 00:15:47.169 okay. So there's precedent. There is. But a key 00:15:47.169 --> 00:15:49.190 difference now is that U .S. fertility rates 00:15:49.190 --> 00:15:51.629 are near record lows. Right. People are having 00:15:51.629 --> 00:15:53.990 fewer children. Exactly. The Congressional Budget 00:15:53.990 --> 00:15:57.029 Office is now forecasting that deaths will outpace 00:15:57.029 --> 00:16:00.809 births by 2033. That's seven years earlier than 00:16:00.809 --> 00:16:03.049 they previously projected. Wow. Seven years sooner. 00:16:03.669 --> 00:16:06.330 So without positive net immigration, a shrinking 00:16:06.330 --> 00:16:09.169 population could really strain public finances. 00:16:09.429 --> 00:16:12.049 Think Social Security, Medicare, and also curb 00:16:12.049 --> 00:16:14.549 demand in some sectors like housing. Less demand 00:16:14.549 --> 00:16:17.629 overall. As one expert, Watson, stated, economies 00:16:17.629 --> 00:16:19.970 can function with very low population growth. 00:16:20.250 --> 00:16:22.549 There's just less dynamism and less income per 00:16:22.549 --> 00:16:25.049 capita, usually in the long run. This points 00:16:25.049 --> 00:16:27.649 to a potentially profound demographic and economic 00:16:27.649 --> 00:16:29.750 challenge for the future. OK, shifting gears 00:16:29.750 --> 00:16:32.509 again. Let's look at the political machinery 00:16:32.509 --> 00:16:35.529 itself, politics from the strategies that determine 00:16:35.529 --> 00:16:38.110 who gets elected to the changing dynamics within 00:16:38.110 --> 00:16:41.549 Congress and even a pretty unique electoral scenario 00:16:41.549 --> 00:16:44.320 that could reshape the Senate. Yeah, let's connect 00:16:44.320 --> 00:16:47.059 these shifts to their potential impact on future 00:16:47.059 --> 00:16:50.000 elections, legislative effectiveness, and even 00:16:50.000 --> 00:16:53.559 how we define a crucial voter block. These insights 00:16:53.559 --> 00:16:57.279 help us understand the ever -evolving battleground 00:16:57.279 --> 00:17:00.610 of American politics. First up, the DNC is meeting 00:17:00.610 --> 00:17:04.109 to discuss the 2028 primary schedule, and there's 00:17:04.109 --> 00:17:06.549 a major hurdle already. Always hurdles at the 00:17:06.549 --> 00:17:09.029 primary schedule. New Hampshire's law. It states 00:17:09.029 --> 00:17:11.190 the Secretary of State has authority to pick 00:17:11.190 --> 00:17:13.529 the primary date to ensure it holds the first 00:17:13.529 --> 00:17:16.990 primary, even if it is on Halloween 2027. Halloween 00:17:16.990 --> 00:17:20.049 2027. They're serious about being first. Apparently 00:17:20.049 --> 00:17:22.339 so. The Iowa caucuses are different. Remember, 00:17:22.339 --> 00:17:24.579 they're run by the parties, not the state, and 00:17:24.579 --> 00:17:27.220 they kind of botched the 2020 caucuses. Oh, yeah, 00:17:27.220 --> 00:17:29.400 that was messy. Plus, President Biden reportedly 00:17:29.400 --> 00:17:32.019 promised Representative Jim Clyburn to have South 00:17:32.019 --> 00:17:35.480 Carolina go first. Ah, the Clyburn promise. Which 00:17:35.480 --> 00:17:38.180 New Hampshire won't like one bit. No, they won't. 00:17:38.279 --> 00:17:40.539 Now, while New Hampshire is often criticized 00:17:40.539 --> 00:17:44.000 for being very white, some analysts argue that, 00:17:44.000 --> 00:17:46.000 well, the Democrats are bleeding white voters 00:17:46.000 --> 00:17:48.759 and maybe picking a nominee that white people 00:17:48.759 --> 00:17:51.670 like isn't such an awful thing. It's a pragmatic 00:17:51.670 --> 00:17:54.769 argument, maybe. Interesting take. But the DNC's 00:17:54.769 --> 00:17:57.549 power here is limited. It can only ask politely, 00:17:57.769 --> 00:17:59.910 really, as the date is ultimately set by the 00:17:59.910 --> 00:18:02.869 state. So what's the likely compromise? A likely 00:18:02.869 --> 00:18:05.349 proposal for the first four states includes New 00:18:05.349 --> 00:18:08.250 Hampshire, South Carolina, and Nevada, and some 00:18:08.250 --> 00:18:11.529 Midwestern state, possibly Michigan. The aim 00:18:11.529 --> 00:18:15.109 is to represent white, black, Latino, and union 00:18:15.109 --> 00:18:17.910 workers. Okay. Covering key bases. But the challenge 00:18:17.910 --> 00:18:20.990 with Michigan is its size. It means Television, 00:18:21.549 --> 00:18:23.950 and thus money, will play a big role, unlike 00:18:23.950 --> 00:18:25.930 New Hampshire's tradition of candidates meeting 00:18:25.930 --> 00:18:28.890 voters personally multiple times. Retail politics. 00:18:29.049 --> 00:18:31.210 Right. Changes the whole dynamic. Now here's 00:18:31.210 --> 00:18:33.970 a fascinating scenario developing in Alaska regarding 00:18:33.970 --> 00:18:36.829 control of the Senate. Alaska. OK. Tell me more. 00:18:37.289 --> 00:18:39.569 Democrats need to flip four Senate seats for 00:18:39.569 --> 00:18:41.950 control. They feel they have strong candidates 00:18:41.950 --> 00:18:44.529 in North Carolina and Ohio and are waiting on 00:18:44.529 --> 00:18:47.089 Governor Janet Mills in Maine for a potential 00:18:47.089 --> 00:18:49.829 third. So they need one more tough seat. The 00:18:49.829 --> 00:18:52.410 critical fourth seat could potentially come from 00:18:52.410 --> 00:18:55.490 Alaska, where Senator Dan Sullivan, a Republican, 00:18:55.609 --> 00:18:58.690 is up for reelection. The obvious Democratic 00:18:58.690 --> 00:19:01.529 candidate, according to reports, is Mary Peltola. 00:19:01.710 --> 00:19:04.069 Peltola. Yes, she won the House seat statewide 00:19:04.069 --> 00:19:07.190 before. She's a native Yupuk Alaskan. Exactly. 00:19:07.450 --> 00:19:10.740 But she faces a tough choice. Run for governor, 00:19:10.920 --> 00:19:13.119 where she's reportedly the odds -on favorite, 00:19:13.240 --> 00:19:16.279 polling at 40 % versus 11 % for the top Republican, 00:19:16.720 --> 00:19:18.720 or run for the Senate. Which is tougher, but 00:19:18.720 --> 00:19:20.819 maybe winnable. Tougher, but not impossible. 00:19:21.099 --> 00:19:23.759 The Democratic Party naturally prioritizes Senate 00:19:23.759 --> 00:19:26.000 control. Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer 00:19:26.000 --> 00:19:29.279 and the DSCC are reportedly on the phone constantly 00:19:29.279 --> 00:19:31.599 with her promising her the sun, the moon, and 00:19:31.599 --> 00:19:34.890 the stars for a Senate run. I bet they are. But 00:19:34.890 --> 00:19:36.750 personally, she has a lot to consider. She has 00:19:36.750 --> 00:19:38.730 seven children, four biological three -step, 00:19:38.829 --> 00:19:41.170 and she's a widow. Her husband tragically died 00:19:41.170 --> 00:19:43.690 in a plane crash in 2023. Oh, that's incredibly 00:19:43.690 --> 00:19:47.329 difficult. Yeah. Living in DC would mean a stressful 00:19:47.329 --> 00:19:50.269 life, an eight -hour flight to Anchorage versus 00:19:50.269 --> 00:19:53.009 living in Juneau as governor, much closer to 00:19:53.009 --> 00:19:56.029 home. Huge personal considerations. But politically, 00:19:56.450 --> 00:19:58.150 she is the most popular politician in the state 00:19:58.150 --> 00:20:01.059 at plus nine, according to polls cited. Compare 00:20:01.059 --> 00:20:03.400 that to Donald Trump at plus one and Senator 00:20:03.400 --> 00:20:06.460 Sullivan at even plus nine is very strong very 00:20:06.460 --> 00:20:10.099 plus fully one -third of Alaskans are on Medicaid 00:20:10.099 --> 00:20:13.640 and Sullivan voted to cut it Sullivan also voted 00:20:13.640 --> 00:20:16.500 to defund public radio, which is a vital news 00:20:16.500 --> 00:20:19.019 and emergency source in much of Alaska This seemed 00:20:19.019 --> 00:20:22.000 like potent issues. They could be she would also 00:20:22.000 --> 00:20:24.880 likely do very well with the 15 % of the population 00:20:24.880 --> 00:20:27.940 That is native Alaskan and the 12 % that is mixed 00:20:28.170 --> 00:20:30.710 And you can bet Schumer and the DSCC would make 00:20:30.710 --> 00:20:33.410 her a top priority for donors. So the potential 00:20:33.410 --> 00:20:36.690 is there. Huge potential. Ultimately, her decision 00:20:36.690 --> 00:20:39.509 is entirely her call, but control of the Senate 00:20:39.509 --> 00:20:41.150 could depend on it. It's quite the weight on 00:20:41.150 --> 00:20:43.309 her shoulders. Absolutely. Now let's talk about 00:20:43.309 --> 00:20:45.289 voters. We've traditionally understood a swing 00:20:45.289 --> 00:20:47.569 voter as someone who switches between parties, 00:20:47.789 --> 00:20:50.170 right? Yeah, the classic definition. But new 00:20:50.170 --> 00:20:52.430 data from a group called Catalyst shows only 00:20:52.430 --> 00:20:55.430 maybe... Six to 12 million people actually switched 00:20:55.430 --> 00:20:58.029 parties between 2020 and 2024. That's not that 00:20:58.029 --> 00:21:00.369 many, nationally speaking. It's fewer than many 00:21:00.369 --> 00:21:03.829 might assume. This suggests a profound redefinition 00:21:03.829 --> 00:21:06.930 of who actually sways elections. So who are the 00:21:06.930 --> 00:21:09.970 new swing voters? Well. According to this analysis, 00:21:10.329 --> 00:21:12.730 the new swing voters are actually these 60 million 00:21:12.730 --> 00:21:15.730 voters who either skipped 2020 and voted for 00:21:15.730 --> 00:21:18.710 the first time in 2024 or set out the election 00:21:18.710 --> 00:21:20.849 after having voted in the previous presidential 00:21:20.849 --> 00:21:24.250 election. 60 million. That's massive. Huge group. 00:21:24.589 --> 00:21:27.049 CNN's Ronald Brownstein puts it well. These are 00:21:27.049 --> 00:21:29.809 voters who may or may not vote in any given election 00:21:29.809 --> 00:21:32.589 rather than reliable party switchers. It's about 00:21:32.589 --> 00:21:34.900 turnout, not persuasion. for this group. And 00:21:34.900 --> 00:21:38.059 how did this play out in 2024? In 2024, this 00:21:38.059 --> 00:21:40.799 voter churn helped Donald Trump. Most new voters 00:21:40.799 --> 00:21:43.500 backed Trump, while most who skipped 2024 had 00:21:43.500 --> 00:21:45.720 actually voted for Biden in 2020. Interesting. 00:21:45.940 --> 00:21:48.180 So Biden voters stayed home, new voters came 00:21:48.180 --> 00:21:51.700 out for Trump? Largely, yes. This suggests many 00:21:51.700 --> 00:21:55.160 Trump 2024 voters are perhaps fickle and not 00:21:55.160 --> 00:21:58.700 hardcore Republicans. Trump's 2024 win apparently 00:21:58.700 --> 00:22:01.359 came from big gains among low propensity, low 00:22:01.359 --> 00:22:03.779 information, working class voters, basically 00:22:03.779 --> 00:22:05.319 people who don't always vote and maybe aren't 00:22:05.319 --> 00:22:07.519 deeply engaged with politics, both white and 00:22:07.519 --> 00:22:10.220 non -white. So the focus shifts now. Exactly. 00:22:10.619 --> 00:22:13.240 The focus is now on these to vote or not to vote 00:22:13.240 --> 00:22:16.519 that is the question voters. For 2026, Republicans 00:22:16.519 --> 00:22:20.160 face two tasks. First, get these swing in swing 00:22:20.160 --> 00:22:22.240 out voters who showed up specifically for Trump 00:22:22.240 --> 00:22:24.519 to vote for House candidates they know nothing 00:22:24.519 --> 00:22:27.180 about. That's a big ask. And second, ensure those 00:22:27.180 --> 00:22:29.440 who do vote vote Republican because they are 00:22:29.440 --> 00:22:31.500 not loyal partisans. And what about campaign 00:22:31.500 --> 00:22:33.680 strategy? Does this change things? Well, a key 00:22:33.680 --> 00:22:36.079 challenge identified for campaigns is that horrible 00:22:36.079 --> 00:22:38.880 negative ads often make these particular voters 00:22:38.859 --> 00:22:41.660 just tune out and not vote at all. Some negativity 00:22:41.660 --> 00:22:44.599 backfires with this group. It seems so. Instead, 00:22:44.619 --> 00:22:46.920 they might need a positive uplifting campaign 00:22:46.920 --> 00:22:50.400 like Barack Obama's in 2008. But those, according 00:22:50.400 --> 00:22:52.799 to the sources, are few and far between these 00:22:52.799 --> 00:22:55.480 days, which could potentially lead to quite low 00:22:55.480 --> 00:22:59.019 turnout overall in 2026. It fundamentally shifts 00:22:59.019 --> 00:23:01.700 how campaigns have to strategize. Fascinating. 00:23:02.059 --> 00:23:04.759 And finally, on the political machinery front, 00:23:05.359 --> 00:23:08.759 a shift in congressional power dynamics. The 00:23:08.759 --> 00:23:11.359 House Freedom Caucus. Ah, the Freedom Caucus. 00:23:11.460 --> 00:23:14.099 Always making noise. Well, with roughly 30 members, 00:23:14.220 --> 00:23:16.519 they used to consistently, you know, gum up the 00:23:16.519 --> 00:23:19.400 works fairly regularly. But sources say they've 00:23:19.400 --> 00:23:21.359 been less effective since Donald Trump became 00:23:21.359 --> 00:23:23.500 president, partly due to his leadership style 00:23:23.500 --> 00:23:25.480 and members getting committee assignments. Right. 00:23:25.519 --> 00:23:27.460 Less need for outside disruption, maybe. And 00:23:27.460 --> 00:23:30.539 their power may be diluted even more in 2027 00:23:30.539 --> 00:23:32.680 because many of the really noisy members are 00:23:32.680 --> 00:23:34.960 apparently running for some other office. Like 00:23:34.960 --> 00:23:37.779 who? Examples given include Andy Biggs in Arizona. 00:23:38.119 --> 00:23:40.900 Byron Donalds in Florida, Ralph Norman in South 00:23:40.900 --> 00:23:43.559 Carolina all running for governor, Barry Moore 00:23:43.559 --> 00:23:46.819 in Alabama running for Senate, Chip Roy in Texas 00:23:46.819 --> 00:23:49.880 running for Texas AG. Wow, quite an exodus. And 00:23:49.880 --> 00:23:52.500 there's more. If Senator Marcia Blackburn wins 00:23:52.500 --> 00:23:55.180 her run for governor in Tennessee, Representative 00:23:55.180 --> 00:23:59.000 Andy Ogles is reportedly very interested in being 00:23:59.000 --> 00:24:02.480 appointed to her vacant Senate seat. So a lot 00:24:02.480 --> 00:24:04.599 of ambition driving people out of the caucus 00:24:04.599 --> 00:24:06.859 or at least out of the House. Yeah. What do other 00:24:06.859 --> 00:24:08.960 Republicans think? Well, Representative Derek 00:24:08.960 --> 00:24:11.819 Van Orden from Wisconsin said, the outcome of 00:24:11.819 --> 00:24:14.579 Chip leaving is a more productive Congress. He 00:24:14.579 --> 00:24:17.299 even nicknamed Chip Roy, Flip Roy, because he 00:24:17.299 --> 00:24:19.740 would loudly oppose bills, but then votes for 00:24:19.740 --> 00:24:22.539 it in the end anyway. Ouch. What's interesting 00:24:22.539 --> 00:24:24.799 about Chip Roy specifically is he's described 00:24:24.799 --> 00:24:27.599 as somewhat unusual within that group. How so? 00:24:27.920 --> 00:24:30.480 He's seen as not only good at grandstanding, 00:24:30.859 --> 00:24:33.059 but is also a good strategist who knows which 00:24:33.059 --> 00:24:34.839 fights to pick and which ones to leave alone. 00:24:35.470 --> 00:24:38.670 He apparently understands process very well and 00:24:38.670 --> 00:24:41.009 can find ways to move policy in his direction 00:24:41.009 --> 00:24:44.109 without the others even noticing. So more effective 00:24:44.109 --> 00:24:46.809 behind the scenes than just noisy. Potentially. 00:24:47.049 --> 00:24:49.150 Despite being an extreme right -winger, he's 00:24:49.150 --> 00:24:52.170 also described as honest and not prone to double 00:24:52.170 --> 00:24:54.329 -crossing anyone, someone who can be counted 00:24:54.329 --> 00:24:57.269 on to stick to a deal. His departure, therefore, 00:24:57.710 --> 00:24:59.670 will create a void of sorts since he was willing 00:24:59.670 --> 00:25:02.490 to make deals. Interesting dynamic. Less noise, 00:25:02.549 --> 00:25:05.539 but maybe less deal -making, too. Could be. And 00:25:05.539 --> 00:25:07.859 in general, it seems Freedom Caucus members are 00:25:07.859 --> 00:25:10.940 highly ambitious. About five times as likely 00:25:10.940 --> 00:25:13.579 as random backbenchers to run for higher office. 00:25:14.119 --> 00:25:18.180 About 17 % versus 3%. Okay, final topic. Let's 00:25:18.180 --> 00:25:20.400 turn our attention to a rapidly evolving threat, 00:25:20.859 --> 00:25:22.359 something that impacts pretty much everything 00:25:22.359 --> 00:25:24.660 we've discussed today, from elections to national 00:25:24.660 --> 00:25:27.460 security and really the very nature of information. 00:25:27.720 --> 00:25:30.380 We're talking about the digital frontier, AI 00:25:30.380 --> 00:25:33.279 and disinformation. Yes, this is huge. We need 00:25:33.279 --> 00:25:35.539 to dive into the mechanics of this new technology 00:25:35.539 --> 00:25:38.059 and its profound implications for democracy and 00:25:38.059 --> 00:25:40.240 how we all perceive truth in the digital age. 00:25:40.740 --> 00:25:42.619 This, perhaps more than anything else we've talked 00:25:42.619 --> 00:25:45.559 about, really ushers in a new era of information 00:25:45.559 --> 00:25:48.960 warfare. New technologies, including AI, obviously 00:25:48.960 --> 00:25:52.200 can be used for good and evil. But hostile foreign 00:25:52.200 --> 00:25:54.579 governments are already using it to help produce 00:25:54.579 --> 00:25:56.940 and spread disinformation. It's already happening. 00:25:57.279 --> 00:26:00.500 One source puts it bluntly. If you think the 00:26:00.500 --> 00:26:02.859 Russian interference in the 2016 election was 00:26:02.859 --> 00:26:05.460 horrendous, these reports suggest what's coming 00:26:05.460 --> 00:26:08.119 will be even more impactful. Yeah, the scale 00:26:08.119 --> 00:26:10.799 and sophistication are increasing. Russia, China 00:26:10.799 --> 00:26:13.279 and other countries are reportedly gearing up 00:26:13.279 --> 00:26:16.420 to use AI to influence elections and inflame 00:26:16.420 --> 00:26:19.920 discord. And the AI is getting good enough that 00:26:19.920 --> 00:26:22.119 it can fool many people much of the time. How 00:26:22.119 --> 00:26:24.569 is it being used specifically? Well, one example 00:26:24.569 --> 00:26:27.390 cited is a Chinese company called Gulaxy. It's 00:26:27.390 --> 00:26:30.589 reportedly using generative AI based on the Chinese 00:26:30.589 --> 00:26:33.089 AI engine DeepSeek, which is apparently much 00:26:33.089 --> 00:26:35.009 more energy efficient than any of the models 00:26:35.009 --> 00:26:36.970 built in the U .S. We're efficient, okay. And 00:26:36.970 --> 00:26:39.990 what does it do? It mines social media and can 00:26:39.990 --> 00:26:42.849 create fake profiles and content that seem very 00:26:42.849 --> 00:26:45.680 authentic to many people. when Galaxy wants to 00:26:45.680 --> 00:26:48.519 boost a person or content, can apparently generate 00:26:48.519 --> 00:26:50.720 likes from thousands of bots and create thousands 00:26:50.720 --> 00:26:53.200 of followers, all of whom put out perfectly reasonable 00:26:53.200 --> 00:26:55.839 -looking content, only they don't exist. Wow. 00:26:56.119 --> 00:26:58.660 Automated amplification. Exactly. This technology 00:26:58.660 --> 00:27:01.900 was reportedly tested in the 2024 election in 00:27:01.900 --> 00:27:04.079 Taiwan and elsewhere. And now focused on the 00:27:04.079 --> 00:27:07.099 U .S. Glaxi has reportedly created profiles for 00:27:07.099 --> 00:27:10.200 at least 117 members of Congress and 2000 other 00:27:10.200 --> 00:27:13.299 American politicians. Profiles for them or targeting 00:27:13.299 --> 00:27:16.339 them. Profiles of them, it seems, perhaps to 00:27:16.339 --> 00:27:18.920 mimic or generate content related to them. And 00:27:18.920 --> 00:27:21.339 it can. automatically generate plausible content 00:27:21.339 --> 00:27:23.839 for them in excellent English. That's a capability 00:27:23.839 --> 00:27:25.640 Chinese hackers traditionally struggled with. 00:27:25.819 --> 00:27:27.460 Right. The language barrier was often a tell. 00:27:27.599 --> 00:27:31.900 Yeah. This potentially means China may have leapfrogged 00:27:31.900 --> 00:27:35.019 Russia in this specific area of influence operations. 00:27:35.299 --> 00:27:37.839 But Russia hasn't stopped, presumably. Oh no, 00:27:37.920 --> 00:27:41.329 Russia's not giving up. They've reportedly been 00:27:41.329 --> 00:27:43.710 experimenting with creating fake stories that 00:27:43.710 --> 00:27:46.529 look like they originated from ABC or Politico, 00:27:47.190 --> 00:27:49.789 trying to mimic trusted news sources. OK, so 00:27:49.789 --> 00:27:52.490 multiple actors improving techniques. What about 00:27:52.490 --> 00:27:56.109 the US response or the lack thereof mentioned 00:27:56.109 --> 00:27:58.269 in some reports? That's a major concern raised 00:27:58.269 --> 00:28:01.849 in the sources. Donald Trump has reportedly dismantled. 00:28:02.000 --> 00:28:04.200 much of what the government had in the way of 00:28:04.200 --> 00:28:07.180 cybersecurity focused on this. Dismantled? How? 00:28:07.279 --> 00:28:10.299 The FBI, the State Department, and SIASA, the 00:28:10.299 --> 00:28:12.700 Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency, 00:28:13.319 --> 00:28:16.099 have reportedly all cut down their offices that 00:28:16.099 --> 00:28:18.420 worked with industry to trade information about 00:28:18.420 --> 00:28:21.680 foreign infiltration into the U .S. So less coordination 00:28:21.680 --> 00:28:23.900 with social media companies and others. That 00:28:23.900 --> 00:28:26.180 seems to be the implication. The suggestion from 00:28:26.180 --> 00:28:28.799 the sources is that Trump welcomes foreign disinformation 00:28:28.799 --> 00:28:31.019 on social media and elsewhere. But couldn't that 00:28:31.019 --> 00:28:33.809 backfire? Absolutely. There's a potential for 00:28:33.809 --> 00:28:37.009 backlash. If foreign leaders dislike his actions, 00:28:37.829 --> 00:28:40.529 say arming Ukraine to the teeth or putting permanent 00:28:40.529 --> 00:28:43.589 tariffs on products from China, then, as one 00:28:43.589 --> 00:28:46.049 source puts it, the worm could turn and all of 00:28:46.049 --> 00:28:47.950 a sudden hundreds of authentic -looking postings 00:28:47.950 --> 00:28:50.269 supposedly from his team could come after him. 00:28:50.490 --> 00:28:52.869 Using the same tools against him. Precisely. 00:28:53.119 --> 00:28:56.480 A provocative example given is to imagine how 00:28:56.480 --> 00:28:58.680 fast a fake audio recording that sounded very 00:28:58.680 --> 00:29:01.200 much like Marco Rubio saying Trump has serious 00:29:01.200 --> 00:29:02.980 dementia. He thinks he just made a great deal 00:29:02.980 --> 00:29:05.619 with Chairman Mao. He needs to go would spread 00:29:05.619 --> 00:29:08.420 a deep fake audio clip. Yeah, that would spread 00:29:08.420 --> 00:29:10.799 like wildfire. It highlights the immense and 00:29:10.799 --> 00:29:13.079 frankly unpredictable power of this new frontier. 00:29:13.500 --> 00:29:16.279 We've certainly covered a lot today from the. 00:29:16.619 --> 00:29:19.019 intricate dance of political power and legal 00:29:19.019 --> 00:29:21.640 challenges to those quiet shifts in our economy, 00:29:21.980 --> 00:29:26.000 and now this alarming rise of AI in global disinformation. 00:29:26.460 --> 00:29:29.039 It's clear that the landscape is incredibly dynamic. 00:29:29.579 --> 00:29:31.299 It's constantly challenging our understanding 00:29:31.299 --> 00:29:33.680 of governance, markets, and information itself. 00:29:34.180 --> 00:29:36.359 Thank you for joining us on this deep dive. Yeah, 00:29:36.359 --> 00:29:38.259 thanks for tuning in. And this really raises 00:29:38.259 --> 00:29:39.960 an important question for you, our listener. 00:29:40.460 --> 00:29:43.359 Given this accelerating use of AI for disinformation, 00:29:43.980 --> 00:29:46.740 And the evolving nature of that swing voter we 00:29:46.740 --> 00:29:49.200 discussed. Right, the turnout voter. How might 00:29:49.200 --> 00:29:52.559 understanding these forces fundamentally alter 00:29:52.559 --> 00:29:55.599 how you evaluate information and engage with 00:29:55.599 --> 00:29:58.099 political discourse moving forward? What new 00:29:58.099 --> 00:30:00.200 strategies will you need to employ to discern 00:30:00.200 --> 00:30:03.059 truth from manufactured narratives in this rapidly 00:30:03.059 --> 00:30:03.779 changing world?