WEBVTT

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Welcome to the Deep Dive. This is where we help

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you get truly well informed, fast, we sift through

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the sources, cut out the noise, and give you

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the key insights. Today, we've got quite a mix.

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International politics, some high stakes court

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drama, the future of energy, even the nuts and

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bolts of democracy itself. It's a lot, but it's

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all connected. Let's dive in. Okay, so first

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up this interesting situation in the UK, you

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know The Brits have this reputation right for

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like the subtle snub that passive aggression

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thing I saw this quote on threads was perfect

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One thing I love about being British is the level

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of petty we go to if JD thinks he's been wronged

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Wait till you see what we have planned And the

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JD here is JD fans. So the big story was him

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and his wife, Usha, trying to go to the bullpub

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in Oxfordshire. And they got turned away. What

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really went down there? Why did that blow up?

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Well, yeah, it's fascinating, because the story

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itself is disputed. The first reports, they were

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all about a staff rebellion, staff saying they

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wouldn't work if they had to serve the vances.

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But the pub management, they haven't confirmed

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or denied that. Very tight lipped. It's also

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possible it was just practical. I mean, a big

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entourage like that, it could. basically shut

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the place down for regular customers, kill their

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profits for the night. Right. But the contrast

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is stark, because Kamala Harris went to that

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exact same pub last year, Secret Service, the

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whole deal, and she got seated. So it does make

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you wonder. It does. And it wasn't just the pub

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incident. The sources talk about other unambiguous

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Vance disdain. There were protest signs around,

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apparently a van driving about with critical

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messages. Even the owner of the house they rented

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supposedly apologized to the neighbors afterwards.

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Wow. OK, so connecting this to the bigger picture,

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then, it sounds like his unpopularity over there

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is, well, pretty real. And these stories, the

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photos, they spread super fast back here in the

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U .S. and Canada. What did that international

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view actually mean for his political future,

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you think? That's the key question, isn't it?

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The analysis we looked at suggests Vance generates

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Trump levels of loathing and scorn from one side,

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but crucially not the same kind of fanatical

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support from the other side to balance it out.

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And it shows how quickly that international perception

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can, you know, bleed back into domestic politics.

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The sources say it does not presage good things

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for his presidential ambitions. Yeah. So the

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takeaway for us and for you listening is how

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linked global and domestic politics are now.

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A pub incident in England suddenly becomes a

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data point for U .S. presidential watchers. It

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really makes you ask how much more Or will this

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kind of thing sway politics here? OK, a stark

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reminder indeed. Let's pivot now. From international

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stages to our own courtrooms, different kind

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of drama. Specifically, that New York state appeals

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court ruling, the fraud case against Donald Trump

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and his businesses, that decision took a while,

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right? Oh, absolutely. Not quick at all. We're

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talking 11 months. Five judges deliberating.

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And the result was, well, they're calling it

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a brokered outcome, three separate opinions.

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But the main points are clear. the original trial

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court finding that Trump and his associates committed

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fraud. That was affirmed, upheld. And the injunctions,

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you know, banning Trump execs from being officers

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or directors of New York companies for a few

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years, two years for Don Jr. and Eric, three

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for Trump himself, also upheld. But, and this

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is the big but, that huge penalty, the $464 million,

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that got tossed out. Can you just quickly remind

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us where that investigation started? Michael

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Cohen's testimony, wasn't it? Exactly. It stemmed

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from Cohen testifying that the Trump organization

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routinely inflated asset values to get loans

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and then deflated them for tax purposes. Standard

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stuff, according to him. As for overturning the

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money part, the Emile's court said it was an

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excessive fine. That's the Eighth Amendment argument

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because the money was going to the state not

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to compensate specific victims. And they also

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said, well, you can't really separate the legitimate

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profits from the fraudulent ones cleanly. Now,

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New York AG Letitia James says she'll appeal

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that part. And sources say she's got a good shot

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because appeals courts usually defer to lower

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courts on factual findings. Right. So Trump immediately

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claimed total victory. Of course. But the reality

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is the core fraud finding against his company

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stands and some pretty tough penalties like that

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monitor overseeing his New York business still

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in place. So not quite the clean win claimed.

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OK. And speaking of Trump's legal team, Alina

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Habba, she was his lawyer at that trial, and

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she's just faced her own legal setback, a pretty

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significant one. Yes, quite significant. So Habba

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was put in as interim U .S. attorney for New

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Jersey. But after the normal 120 days, the district

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judges there basically said, no continuance.

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They rejected extending her role. The administration

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then tried to work around naming her acting attorney,

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but some defendants challenged her authority

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to even hold that position. And Chief Judge Matthew

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Brann, who interestingly is a Republican appointed

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by Obama, he wrote this really detailed 77 -page

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ruling found that Hobbit is not lawfully holding

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the office of United States attorney, period.

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And crucially, that her actions since July 1st

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may be declared void. That covers a lot of ground.

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Think about indictments, other legal actions.

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Wow. And Habba's response. I saw she went on

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Sean Hannity. Yeah. Blamed activist judges said

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their job is respecting the president. OK. But

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this raises a huge question, right? If the White

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House loses the appeals on this Habba ruling,

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what are the wider implications? It could get

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really messy. Potentially. Several other acting

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U .S. attorneys appointed under similar circumstances

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across the country could also be found invalid.

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That would create just an enormous mess imagine

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trying to clean that up legally cases thrown

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out refiled and The mess just gets bigger every

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extra day it drags on it really can paralyze

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parts of the justice system It really underscores

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why the integrity of these appointments and processes

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is so fundamental. It's the bedrock Which actually

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leads us nicely into our next topic the foundations

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of electoral power Let's talk about the redistricting

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Derby. It's officially kicked off Starting in

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Texas, new maps, gerrymandered maps, just got

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approved by the State House and the key Senate

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committee. Looks like they're heading for full

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Senate approval. What's the immediate effect?

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Well, the immediate effect is pretty dramatic

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for some Democrats there. Representatives Greg

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Cesar and Lloyd Doggett, they've basically been

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drawn into the same district, TX 37. Doggett

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has already said he'll step down if the maps

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stand. And you also see Republican Chip Roy deciding

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to run for Texas Attorney General. Maybe because

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his new district got more Trumpy neighborhoods,

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making a primary challenge slightly riskier for

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him. And California saw this and responded almost

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immediately. Lawmakers approved Governor Newsom's

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plan to, well, temporarily gerrymander their

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maps. The idea is the independent commission

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gets the job back in 2032. Newsom was blunt.

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They fired the first shot, Texas. We wouldn't

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be here had Texas not done what they just did.

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So, for you listeners in California, that measures

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on the ballot November 4th. But the campaigning,

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the electioneering is already pretty intense,

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I hear. Oh, yeah. Flyers are out already. And

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they're designed very carefully to look like

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they're from a left -leaning group. But turns

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out they're funded by Charles T. Mugger Jr.,

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who our sources describe as a far -right Trumper.

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His goal is pretty clear. Keep as many Republican

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seats in California safe as possible. It's quite

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the tactic. Deceptive, yeah. And Newsom's counter,

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he's pointing to Munger's donations, right? To

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anti -choice, anti -LGBTQ. Exactly. Trying to

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expose the agenda behind the seemingly progressive

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flyers. It's a messaging war. How's the money

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race looking? It's interesting. Newsom raised

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$6 .2 million really quickly from over 200 ,000

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people. Grassroots stuff. Munger, being a billionaire,

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could obviously drop a lot more cash. But that

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early grassroots surge for Newsom is notable.

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And it might tie into this bigger picture idea

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that maybe pure money doesn't guarantee wins

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in California ballot prox like it used to. Maybe

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over 90 percent predictability back then. But

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shifts in media, less network TV watching might

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be changing that game. Current polls actually

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show a Newsom side up by about 20 points. So

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money isn't everything, perhaps. So this gerrymandering

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fight feels like just the start, doesn't it?

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The opening salvo and a bigger power struggle.

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Our sources point to Republican efforts to hold

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power, sometimes with, quote, no scruples. You

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have Donald Trump saying, absurdly, that just

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eliminating mail and ballots would flip a hundred

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seats. That's agree. Which sounds like, you know,

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setting the stage to challenge Democratic wins

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later probably means a blizzard of post -election

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lawsuits, as one source put it. And then there's

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that Steve Bannon plan, which is described as

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truly evil, deploying Black Shirts ICE agents,

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his term, to polling places and areas with lots

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of immigrants. The term Black Shirts itself is

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obviously meant to intimidate, evoke fascism.

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It's aimed at deterring voters, he calls Larry.

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Now, legally, that plan should probably get shut

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down fast by a judge, but just talking about

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it can have a chilling effect. So the core issue

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here, for you listening, is about the fairness

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of the whole system. Voter access, the power

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of your vote. When the rules themselves are being

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fought over and potentially manipulated, it really

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strikes at the heart of representative democracy,

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OK, from fighting over ballots to something that

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hits every single household, energy. the future

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of it. And here's where it gets really interesting,

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because Donald Trump seems to have backed himself

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into a corner on this, a worst of both worlds

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situation. His clear dislike for renewables like

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solar and wind. Why? Who knows? Big oil. Just

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opposing anything Obama or Biden did, that wind

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farm thing near his golf course, whatever the

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reason. He's not a fan. But has he actually managed

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to stop the progress of clean energy? Well, that's

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the fascinating part, despite the rhetoric, despite

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some policy efforts. Solar power. especially

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just keeps marching forward. Pretty strongly,

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actually. The EIA, that's the Energy Information

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Administration, they predict the U .S. will add

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33 gigawatts of solar capacity just this year.

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That's a little over half of all new electricity

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generation capacity coming online in 2025 from

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all sources combined, including fossil fuels.

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OK, so why? If there's political pushback, why

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is solar still surging? What's the fundamental

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issue for Trump and big oil here? The fundamental

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issue is economics, really. Renewables are just

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becoming a smarter investment, simple as that.

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They're often cheaper or just more profitable

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than building new fossil fuel plants, especially

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when you plan these projects out for decades,

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which you have to. Investors look at the long

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term and the math for renewables is just getting

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better and better. Now here's the other half

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of that worst of both worlds problem we mentioned.

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If you actually try to slow down renewables.

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You're not just slowing renewables, you're slowing

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the overall growth of new energy supply, period.

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And this is happening right when electricity

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demand is going up, up, up. think crypto mining,

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population growth, and especially AI. AI is hugely

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energy hungry. Right. So let's break that down

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for you, the listener. It's pretty simple, isn't

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it? Demand goes way up. Supply doesn't keep pace

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because new sources are being deliberately slowed.

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What happens? Prices go up. Your energy bill

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gets higher. It creates an energy pinch right

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in your household budget. Exactly. There's an

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analysis from Energy Innovation that puts numbers

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on it. They estimate this failure to keep up

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with demand. It'll likely increase household

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energy prices by about 18 % over the next 10

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years. That's around $170 a year extra for the

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average family. And they also predict about 750

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,000 jobs lost. because we're not fully investing

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in the renewable sector buildup. Real economic

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consequences. And the politics of that are pretty

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clear, too. An energy pinch hitting families,

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especially if you add in regular inflation, maybe

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effects from trade wars. Yeah, that could get

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pretty ugly, pretty fast for the president and

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his party, as one source put it. It becomes a

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major political vulnerability, not just an environmental

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issue. So quite a journey today in this deep

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dive. We went from British pub snubs and complex

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legal rulings to fierce battles over election

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maps and this quiet but hugely important shift

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happening in our energy system. Yeah, and it

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really highlights how connecting these different

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dots, politics, law, economics, technology, give

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you a much clearer picture of what's actually

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going on. They aren't separate stories. They're

00:12:00.600 --> 00:12:02.840
all interwoven. So what's the takeaway? It's

00:12:02.840 --> 00:12:05.940
a snapshot, really. A snapshot of just how dynamic

00:12:05.940 --> 00:12:08.580
and interconnected things are. Political ambition,

00:12:09.100 --> 00:12:12.460
legal fights, tech changes. They're all constantly

00:12:12.460 --> 00:12:14.840
reshaping the world around us and impacting you

00:12:14.840 --> 00:12:16.840
directly. And maybe a final thought to leave

00:12:16.840 --> 00:12:19.259
you with. Considering all these efforts we've

00:12:19.259 --> 00:12:21.399
seen to shape how you perceive things. Yeah.

00:12:21.700 --> 00:12:24.259
The snubs, the legal spin, the gerrymandering

00:12:24.259 --> 00:12:27.139
flyers and these massive economic forces and

00:12:27.139 --> 00:12:29.059
energy. What's your responsibility in cutting

00:12:29.059 --> 00:12:31.750
through all that? in digging for the facts, understanding

00:12:31.750 --> 00:12:34.590
the real long -term consequences of these trends

00:12:34.590 --> 00:12:36.929
for your community, for the future, something

00:12:36.929 --> 00:12:38.870
to think about. Thanks for joining us for the

00:12:38.870 --> 00:12:41.110
Deep Dive. Keep asking questions, stay curious,

00:12:41.330 --> 00:12:42.190
and we'll catch you next time.
