WEBVTT 00:00:00.000 --> 00:00:03.480 Welcome to the Deep Dive. Today we're really 00:00:03.480 --> 00:00:05.679 getting into a stack of sources covering some 00:00:05.679 --> 00:00:07.839 recent events, events that are being described 00:00:07.839 --> 00:00:11.580 broadly as abuses of power. That's right. And 00:00:11.580 --> 00:00:14.099 our mission here is to pull out the most important 00:00:14.099 --> 00:00:17.519 bits of information, the key insights, help you 00:00:17.519 --> 00:00:20.480 understand what's really going on beyond just 00:00:20.480 --> 00:00:23.199 the headlines, hopefully spark some of those 00:00:23.199 --> 00:00:26.079 aha moments. Absolutely. And these sources, they 00:00:26.079 --> 00:00:27.899 really offer a fascinating look, don't they? 00:00:28.120 --> 00:00:31.899 decisions, actions across so many different areas. 00:00:32.000 --> 00:00:34.920 Like what specifically? Well, we're talking federalizing 00:00:34.920 --> 00:00:37.659 a city, international trade, even university 00:00:37.659 --> 00:00:41.280 governance. Wow. And also how numbers get presented, 00:00:41.679 --> 00:00:45.280 how official data is handled, and even how private 00:00:45.280 --> 00:00:47.200 wealth might be generated from public office. 00:00:47.399 --> 00:00:49.259 OK. It's really about putting these diverse pieces 00:00:49.259 --> 00:00:51.579 together, spotting those crucial patterns. All 00:00:51.579 --> 00:00:53.479 right. Let's dive in. First topic. Right. The 00:00:53.479 --> 00:00:56.399 nation's capital, Washington, DC. What's the 00:00:56.399 --> 00:00:58.020 big news coming out of there, according to these 00:00:58.020 --> 00:01:00.140 sources? Well, the source material really leads 00:01:00.140 --> 00:01:03.280 with a intentionally striking headline. Trump 00:01:03.280 --> 00:01:07.319 invades Washington, D .C. Invades? That's strong 00:01:07.319 --> 00:01:10.420 language. It is. And the source says they actually 00:01:10.420 --> 00:01:13.799 debated the wording, but they settled on invasion 00:01:13.799 --> 00:01:17.319 because while their view was sending troops to 00:01:17.319 --> 00:01:20.379 D .C. without any real justification is close 00:01:20.379 --> 00:01:23.129 enough to qualify. OK, so what actions actually 00:01:23.129 --> 00:01:25.329 led to that headline? What was the justification 00:01:25.329 --> 00:01:28.969 given? Right. So after sort of teasing an announcement, 00:01:29.430 --> 00:01:32.030 he declared an emergency in D .C. An emergency? 00:01:32.329 --> 00:01:35.769 Yes. And then he used authority under the District 00:01:35.769 --> 00:01:37.790 of Columbia Home Rule Act. Right, the Home Rule 00:01:37.790 --> 00:01:40.769 Act. To take control of the Capitol Police and 00:01:40.769 --> 00:01:43.569 deploy National Guard troops. And the reason? 00:01:43.909 --> 00:01:46.150 The stated justification was that DC, and this 00:01:46.150 --> 00:01:48.769 is a quote, has been overtaken by criminals and 00:01:48.769 --> 00:01:51.269 drugged out maniacs and homeless people. The 00:01:51.269 --> 00:01:53.329 press conference itself was described in the 00:01:53.329 --> 00:01:55.510 sources as, well, rambling, even bringing up 00:01:55.510 --> 00:01:58.950 things like trans girls playing high school sports, 00:01:59.430 --> 00:02:01.209 seemingly unrelated. OK, but here's where it 00:02:01.209 --> 00:02:03.370 gets interesting, right? The sources talk about 00:02:03.370 --> 00:02:06.650 the reality versus those claims. What does the 00:02:06.650 --> 00:02:10.479 data actually show about crime in DC? Yeah, this 00:02:10.479 --> 00:02:13.120 is key. The sources state pretty clearly that 00:02:13.120 --> 00:02:15.659 crime is not, in fact, out of control. Really? 00:02:16.120 --> 00:02:18.219 There's actually been a consistent downward trend 00:02:18.219 --> 00:02:21.379 for about 15 years. Crime is currently at a 30 00:02:21.379 --> 00:02:24.479 -year low, with one exception. Which is? 2023. 00:02:24.580 --> 00:02:28.139 There was a spike in 2023. But the sources suggest 00:02:28.139 --> 00:02:30.139 that spike was almost certainly caused by the 00:02:30.139 --> 00:02:33.020 pandemic. And they argue that this single year's 00:02:33.020 --> 00:02:36.960 data, this outlier, was basically used to spin 00:02:36.960 --> 00:02:39.939 that data as aggressively as is possible. even 00:02:39.939 --> 00:02:41.699 though the administration likely knew it was 00:02:41.699 --> 00:02:45.419 an exception. Wow. That's quite a claim. So why 00:02:45.419 --> 00:02:48.319 DC? Why pick DC as the target for this kind of 00:02:48.319 --> 00:02:50.479 action? Well, the sources lay out a few reasons 00:02:50.479 --> 00:02:53.699 why DC makes, in their words, an excellent whipping 00:02:53.699 --> 00:02:55.759 boy. Okay. First, it's the seat of government, 00:02:56.080 --> 00:02:58.379 reportedly unpopular with his base. Right. Second, 00:02:58.479 --> 00:03:01.080 it's very democratic, also unpopular with the 00:03:01.080 --> 00:03:02.719 base, according to the sources. Makes sense. 00:03:02.919 --> 00:03:06.219 Third, it's very black. The source notes much 00:03:06.219 --> 00:03:08.439 of his base reportedly dislikes black people. 00:03:08.599 --> 00:03:11.400 D .C. is actually one of only six cities in the 00:03:11.400 --> 00:03:14.919 U .S., over 500 ,000 people, and over 40 % Black. 00:03:15.080 --> 00:03:18.000 Interesting demographic point. Yeah. The sources 00:03:18.000 --> 00:03:20.939 also bring up some specific incidents. The murders 00:03:20.939 --> 00:03:23.639 of Israeli embassy staff, Yaron Lashinsky and 00:03:23.639 --> 00:03:26.259 Sarah Milgram, an assault on Edward Koreshine, 00:03:26.300 --> 00:03:28.800 saying these events, through confirmation bias, 00:03:29.419 --> 00:03:32.439 wrongly reinforced that perception of D .C. being 00:03:32.439 --> 00:03:35.360 crime -ridden. So, specific events feeding a 00:03:35.360 --> 00:03:39.039 narrative. Exactly. And finally, DC's unique 00:03:39.039 --> 00:03:41.840 status as a federal district just gives him more 00:03:41.840 --> 00:03:45.319 power to, well, impose himself with less resistance 00:03:45.319 --> 00:03:47.840 than he'd face in a state city. And the sources 00:03:47.840 --> 00:03:51.580 also point out some inconsistencies. between 00:03:51.580 --> 00:03:53.599 these actions and things he said before. Yes, 00:03:53.680 --> 00:03:56.000 that's another important angle. During that press 00:03:56.000 --> 00:03:57.539 conference, he said part of the reason for the 00:03:57.539 --> 00:03:59.520 action was to make sure DC police are treated 00:03:59.520 --> 00:04:02.099 with respect. Okay. But, as the sources note, 00:04:02.719 --> 00:04:04.719 he just pardoned hundreds of people who beat 00:04:04.719 --> 00:04:07.039 those very same police during the January 6 events. 00:04:07.180 --> 00:04:09.000 That is quite a contradiction. And there's more. 00:04:09.199 --> 00:04:12.520 Back in 2021 and again in 2024, he claimed that 00:04:12.520 --> 00:04:15.060 Nancy Pelosi, the speaker at the time, was responsible 00:04:15.060 --> 00:04:17.319 for not deploying the National Guard on January 00:04:17.319 --> 00:04:19.819 6th. He said it was out of his hands. Right. 00:04:19.920 --> 00:04:22.420 I remember that. Which is, as the source puts 00:04:22.420 --> 00:04:25.279 it, a very different take on presidential power 00:04:25.279 --> 00:04:27.899 than the one he's asserting now over D .C. Definitely 00:04:27.899 --> 00:04:31.100 seems like a shift. So what do the sources predict 00:04:31.100 --> 00:04:35.459 happens next for D .C. or maybe even other cities? 00:04:35.819 --> 00:04:39.060 Well, legally, The emergency is supposed to only 00:04:39.060 --> 00:04:41.660 last 30 days. Right. Now, it's possible they 00:04:41.660 --> 00:04:43.800 could try to ignore that limit or maybe just 00:04:43.800 --> 00:04:47.379 quietly back down, but the sources think a more 00:04:47.379 --> 00:04:50.899 likely scenario is that he finds another city 00:04:50.899 --> 00:04:53.480 to target when he needs a new distraction. Like 00:04:53.480 --> 00:04:56.180 who? They hinted at places like New York, Chicago, 00:04:56.399 --> 00:04:59.579 Los Angeles, basically using it as red meat for 00:04:59.579 --> 00:05:02.129 the base. And isn't there a legal challenge already 00:05:02.129 --> 00:05:04.470 happening related to the National Guard? Yes. 00:05:04.670 --> 00:05:06.449 Good point. California is actually fighting him 00:05:06.449 --> 00:05:08.329 in court right now over his use of the National 00:05:08.329 --> 00:05:10.410 Guard there. And reportedly that case is going 00:05:10.410 --> 00:05:13.149 poorly for the administration. Interesting. So 00:05:13.149 --> 00:05:15.529 looking beyond the immediate 30 days, is there 00:05:15.529 --> 00:05:18.209 a potential long -term consequence for D .C. 00:05:18.350 --> 00:05:20.910 mentioned in the sources? There is, actually. 00:05:21.310 --> 00:05:23.389 A potentially positive one for D .C., ironically. 00:05:23.730 --> 00:05:25.790 The sources suggest that once Trump is out of 00:05:25.790 --> 00:05:29.649 office, his quote, use and abuse of the district 00:05:29.649 --> 00:05:33.269 will create serious momentum for statehood. Statehood 00:05:33.269 --> 00:05:36.170 for DC. That's been talked about for years. Exactly. 00:05:36.370 --> 00:05:38.769 And they argue it probably should already have 00:05:38.769 --> 00:05:41.069 happened anyhow. No. But this whole situation 00:05:41.069 --> 00:05:43.569 could. generate more sympathy for DC residents 00:05:43.569 --> 00:05:45.750 and, you know, push it forward. But statehood 00:05:45.750 --> 00:05:48.550 bills face the filibuster, right? Need 60 votes 00:05:48.550 --> 00:05:50.750 in the Senate. Usually, yes. Yeah. But the source 00:05:50.750 --> 00:05:53.350 points out it only takes 51 votes or 50 plus 00:05:53.350 --> 00:05:55.769 the VP tiebreaker to create a specific carve 00:05:55.769 --> 00:05:58.410 out for the filibuster rule. Oh, procedural move. 00:05:58.490 --> 00:06:00.649 Right. And they think a carve out just for DC 00:06:00.649 --> 00:06:03.290 statehood carries a relatively low risk of payback. 00:06:03.990 --> 00:06:06.449 So these actions could inadvertently pave the 00:06:06.449 --> 00:06:08.790 way fascinating. Okay, let's shift gears now 00:06:08.790 --> 00:06:12.170 from DC to the global stage Let's talk economics 00:06:12.170 --> 00:06:14.509 specifically China. What was going on with tariffs 00:06:14.509 --> 00:06:16.970 recently, right? So the situation was that tariffs 00:06:16.970 --> 00:06:19.110 on Chinese imports were apparently set to jump 00:06:19.110 --> 00:06:22.540 way up how high The source mentions 145%. They 00:06:22.540 --> 00:06:26.639 call it a comic book number. 145%. Wow. Yeah, 00:06:26.759 --> 00:06:29.240 something that high would almost certainly trigger 00:06:29.240 --> 00:06:31.860 some kind of financial crisis. Panic in the markets, 00:06:31.860 --> 00:06:33.819 you know. OK, so what actually happened? Did 00:06:33.819 --> 00:06:37.279 they go up? No. Instead, Trump decided to extend 00:06:37.279 --> 00:06:40.100 the deadline for negotiations. How long? Another 00:06:40.100 --> 00:06:43.839 90 days. Hmm. What's the strategy there? Especially 00:06:43.839 --> 00:06:46.399 thinking about the relationship between the administration 00:06:46.399 --> 00:06:48.879 and China. Well, the sources bring up a really 00:06:48.879 --> 00:06:51.879 interesting cultural point here. OK. They describe 00:06:51.879 --> 00:06:55.540 China as an honor shame culture, meaning things 00:06:55.540 --> 00:06:59.259 like public image, avoiding humiliation, saving 00:06:59.259 --> 00:07:03.519 face. Those are extremely important. Right. So 00:07:03.519 --> 00:07:07.259 the thinking is Xi Jinping understands very well 00:07:07.259 --> 00:07:09.839 that any sort of resolution will need to be structured 00:07:09.839 --> 00:07:12.100 so that Trump can declare a win and save face. 00:07:12.399 --> 00:07:14.660 Allow him to look strong, essentially. Pretty 00:07:14.660 --> 00:07:16.970 much. The sources also note that Trump seems 00:07:16.970 --> 00:07:18.769 somewhat leery of actually bringing the hammer 00:07:18.769 --> 00:07:21.850 down on China. Any examples? They cite his reluctance 00:07:21.850 --> 00:07:24.490 to force the sale of TikTok, even though Congress 00:07:24.490 --> 00:07:27.230 gave clear orders to do so. It suggests maybe 00:07:27.230 --> 00:07:29.829 a preference for the threat over the actual follow 00:07:29.829 --> 00:07:32.810 through. So given all that, what did the sources 00:07:32.810 --> 00:07:35.589 expect will happen with these negotiations? They 00:07:35.589 --> 00:07:38.569 basically assume that, you know, Sometime in 00:07:38.569 --> 00:07:41.370 the reasonably near future, Trump will announce 00:07:41.370 --> 00:07:43.870 that he has secured a great trade deal with China. 00:07:44.290 --> 00:07:46.810 A great deal. Yep. And the details will probably 00:07:46.810 --> 00:07:48.949 involve a tariff rate much lower than that threatened 00:07:48.949 --> 00:07:53.170 145 percent, plus maybe some vague promise of 00:07:53.170 --> 00:07:56.550 investment from China. So a pattern of high threats 00:07:56.550 --> 00:07:59.230 followed by a more moderate deal that can be 00:07:59.230 --> 00:08:01.649 framed as a win. That seems to be the pattern 00:08:01.649 --> 00:08:03.829 identified, yes, because he just did something 00:08:03.829 --> 00:08:06.290 similar with Mexico, another 90 -day extension. 00:08:06.410 --> 00:08:08.889 Right. So now that's two of the US's three biggest 00:08:08.889 --> 00:08:11.750 trading partners, China and Mexico, getting these 00:08:11.750 --> 00:08:14.970 extensions. Who's the third? Canada. And the 00:08:14.970 --> 00:08:17.750 sources say things there are more tricky, possibly 00:08:17.750 --> 00:08:19.990 due to personal dynamics with Prime Minister 00:08:19.990 --> 00:08:23.079 Mark Carney. and his stance. OK, so a consistent 00:08:23.079 --> 00:08:25.660 playbook, but with some variation. Let's pivot 00:08:25.660 --> 00:08:28.579 again, this time from global trade back to domestic 00:08:28.579 --> 00:08:31.060 institutions, universities. The sources talk 00:08:31.060 --> 00:08:33.759 about universities being targeted. Why? What's 00:08:33.759 --> 00:08:36.419 the underlying reason given for this hostility 00:08:36.419 --> 00:08:39.620 towards education? Well, the sources put forward 00:08:39.620 --> 00:08:42.700 a pretty stark argument. They say that if your 00:08:42.700 --> 00:08:45.340 goal is to keep a population under your thumb, 00:08:45.899 --> 00:08:48.840 then being hostile to education is a key tactic. 00:08:48.899 --> 00:08:52.240 Why is that? Because, they argue, educated people 00:08:52.240 --> 00:08:54.860 tend to see through the lies of autocratic regimes. 00:08:55.379 --> 00:08:58.120 They can often project forward, guess the long 00:08:58.120 --> 00:09:00.740 -term implications of policies, and they also 00:09:00.740 --> 00:09:03.200 know about resistance. They provide historical 00:09:03.200 --> 00:09:06.100 examples. They do. They mention leaders of major 00:09:06.100 --> 00:09:08.419 slave rebellions in U .S. history being educated 00:09:08.419 --> 00:09:11.299 black men. They talk about Mao Zedong targeting 00:09:11.299 --> 00:09:14.200 intellectuals in China, and how regimes in Poland, 00:09:14.480 --> 00:09:16.759 Turkey, Russia have all tried to control their 00:09:16.759 --> 00:09:18.799 universities. OK, so that's a general theory. 00:09:18.960 --> 00:09:21.059 How does it apply specifically to Trump, according 00:09:21.059 --> 00:09:23.899 to these sources? The sources suggest Trump most 00:09:23.899 --> 00:09:27.059 certainly aspires to exercise dictator -like 00:09:27.059 --> 00:09:30.639 powers. And so targeting prominent universities 00:09:30.639 --> 00:09:33.879 early on, what they call Trump v2 .0, serves 00:09:33.879 --> 00:09:36.000 a few purposes. It's a direct challenge to a 00:09:36.000 --> 00:09:37.919 potential power center that might oppose him. 00:09:37.960 --> 00:09:41.220 And it also lets him, well, avenge his own personal 00:09:41.220 --> 00:09:44.879 grievances. The source puts it bluntly. He hates 00:09:44.879 --> 00:09:47.179 pointy -headed academics because they make him 00:09:47.179 --> 00:09:50.559 feel stupid. Right. So which universities were 00:09:50.559 --> 00:09:54.200 hit first, and why them? The initial targets 00:09:54.200 --> 00:09:56.580 weren't too surprising, according to the analysis. 00:09:57.139 --> 00:10:00.440 Harvard, first off. The big one. Exactly. The 00:10:00.440 --> 00:10:04.559 absolute embodiment worldwide of elite academic 00:10:04.559 --> 00:10:08.200 institution. The only big three US school, actually. 00:10:08.340 --> 00:10:10.679 And the other. Columbia University, right in 00:10:10.679 --> 00:10:12.860 New York City, America's biggest city. And Columbia 00:10:12.860 --> 00:10:15.259 was prominent in the news recently. It was. It 00:10:15.259 --> 00:10:18.200 was a major flash point for the Gaza protests. 00:10:18.360 --> 00:10:22.129 And those protests provided the official justification 00:10:22.129 --> 00:10:24.710 for the administration to put pressure on universities 00:10:24.710 --> 00:10:27.509 using the label of anti -semitism. Okay, Harvard 00:10:27.509 --> 00:10:29.389 and Columbia make sense based on that logic, 00:10:29.389 --> 00:10:31.549 but the sources mentioned a delay with UCLA. 00:10:31.610 --> 00:10:34.230 That seemed odd given UCLA's profile. Yeah, that's 00:10:34.230 --> 00:10:35.950 a really interesting point the sources dig into. 00:10:36.190 --> 00:10:38.590 UCLA, they say, checks an awful lot of boxes 00:10:38.590 --> 00:10:40.409 for the administration. It's surprising it wasn't 00:10:40.409 --> 00:10:42.629 in that first wave. What kind of boxes? Well, 00:10:42.629 --> 00:10:45.049 it's definitely an elite institution, maybe just 00:10:45.049 --> 00:10:47.970 a tier below the top ivies. It's world famous, 00:10:48.269 --> 00:10:51.559 has huge name recognition. Especially in Asia, 00:10:51.820 --> 00:10:53.779 Japan particularly. Licensing and things like 00:10:53.779 --> 00:10:56.799 that. Huge. Apparently UCLA makes more money 00:10:56.799 --> 00:10:59.419 from licensing its name than any other university. 00:10:59.679 --> 00:11:01.879 You see movies filming there, big tourist groups. 00:11:02.100 --> 00:11:04.460 Right. What else? It rakes in the research funds. 00:11:05.159 --> 00:11:07.539 And research funding is the main lever the administration 00:11:07.539 --> 00:11:10.940 is using here. The pressure point. Exactly. While 00:11:10.940 --> 00:11:14.220 ivies get money, the sources note Johns Hopkins 00:11:14.220 --> 00:11:16.039 is actually number one for research funding. 00:11:16.200 --> 00:11:19.039 Why Hopkins? Because it hits all three big areas. 00:11:19.670 --> 00:11:22.610 Serious medical research, sure, expensive. Two, 00:11:22.789 --> 00:11:25.429 serious physics research, really expensive. And 00:11:25.429 --> 00:11:28.029 three, a large student body and faculty. Lots 00:11:28.029 --> 00:11:30.610 of people to apply for grants. UCLA is up there, 00:11:30.669 --> 00:11:33.110 too, though. Okay, so elite, famous, lots of 00:11:33.110 --> 00:11:35.690 research money. What else makes UCLA a target? 00:11:36.149 --> 00:11:39.250 Like Columbia, it was also the site of high -profile 00:11:39.250 --> 00:11:42.029 Gaza protests. It also has fairly new leadership. 00:11:42.809 --> 00:11:45.230 Chancellor Julio Frank just started in January. 00:11:45.769 --> 00:11:48.129 And the thinking is, inexperienced administrators 00:11:48.129 --> 00:11:51.389 are more likely to misstep, maybe easier to intimidate. 00:11:51.750 --> 00:11:54.909 Mm. Location matters, too. Big time. It's in 00:11:54.909 --> 00:11:57.250 California, which the source calls the hated 00:11:57.250 --> 00:12:00.500 state. Governor Gavin Newsom, a major Trump critic, 00:12:00.720 --> 00:12:02.960 is even an ex -officio member of the UC Board 00:12:02.960 --> 00:12:05.559 of Regents. Wow, direct connection. And it's 00:12:05.559 --> 00:12:08.059 in Los Angeles, the hated city, which, as the 00:12:08.059 --> 00:12:09.879 source notes, has already served as a punching 00:12:09.879 --> 00:12:13.220 bag for Trump v2 .0. So a lot of reasons. The 00:12:13.220 --> 00:12:16.259 delay is surprising, then. Very. So the shoe 00:12:16.259 --> 00:12:18.679 finally dropped, as they say. What was the price 00:12:18.679 --> 00:12:21.000 demanded from UCLA? Remember, they'd already 00:12:21.000 --> 00:12:23.639 frozen about $500 million in UCLA's research 00:12:23.639 --> 00:12:27.710 funds. The price revealed later was steep. A 00:12:27.710 --> 00:12:30.830 fine of $1 billion. A billion dollars. Plus, 00:12:31.549 --> 00:12:33.710 an agreement for significant changes to university 00:12:33.710 --> 00:12:35.649 governance. How would they even pay that? The 00:12:35.649 --> 00:12:38.990 deal proposed was an installment plan. $276 million 00:12:38.990 --> 00:12:42.570 a year for three years, plus another $172 million 00:12:42.570 --> 00:12:45.110 into a trust fund to settle lawsuits related 00:12:45.110 --> 00:12:48.429 to the protests. Good grief. How does that compare 00:12:48.429 --> 00:12:51.049 to what other schools agree to? And why would 00:12:51.049 --> 00:12:53.850 any university agree to these terms? Well, Harvard 00:12:53.850 --> 00:12:56.309 reportedly made a deal involving policy changes 00:12:56.309 --> 00:13:00.529 and paying $500 million for vocational and educational 00:13:00.529 --> 00:13:03.769 programs. Half a billion. Still huge, but... 00:13:03.549 --> 00:13:07.149 Less than UCLA is fine. Right. And Columbia and 00:13:07.149 --> 00:13:09.889 others agree to similar deals. The sources suggest 00:13:09.889 --> 00:13:11.809 that university leaders, although they'd never 00:13:11.809 --> 00:13:14.149 say it publicly, will probably make these changes 00:13:14.149 --> 00:13:16.830 deliberately unenthusiastic. Go through the motions? 00:13:16.929 --> 00:13:20.090 Sort of. And plan to reverse them later. As for 00:13:20.090 --> 00:13:22.350 the money for vocational programs, the expectation 00:13:22.350 --> 00:13:26.710 is creative bookkeeping. Like what? Like reclassifying 00:13:26.710 --> 00:13:29.750 existing extension courses, things like photography, 00:13:29.950 --> 00:13:32.690 cooking, real estate. as fulfilling that requirement. 00:13:33.070 --> 00:13:35.269 OK, but still, why comply at all, especially 00:13:35.269 --> 00:13:37.450 if, as the sources suggest, they think they'd 00:13:37.450 --> 00:13:40.049 probably win in court? It comes down to a calculated 00:13:40.049 --> 00:13:42.669 decision, a risk assessment. How so? They'd know 00:13:42.669 --> 00:13:45.190 they'd almost certainly win in court. But almost 00:13:45.190 --> 00:13:47.750 certainly isn't certainly, there's still risk. 00:13:47.909 --> 00:13:51.129 And more importantly, if a major research project 00:13:51.129 --> 00:13:53.649 loses its funding for a year or two while the 00:13:53.649 --> 00:13:56.750 court case drags on, it probably dies. All the 00:13:56.750 --> 00:13:59.330 work and money already invested. Exactly. Lost. 00:13:59.769 --> 00:14:03.429 Plus, future funding jeopardized. So they pay 00:14:03.429 --> 00:14:05.889 what the source essentially calls a bribe. A 00:14:05.889 --> 00:14:08.789 bribe to avoid court. To avoid the long, expensive 00:14:08.789 --> 00:14:11.889 court case, salvage future research funds, and 00:14:11.889 --> 00:14:14.450 avoid potentially losing billions in partially 00:14:14.450 --> 00:14:17.850 completed research. It's a pragmatic, if painful, 00:14:17.909 --> 00:14:20.470 choice. And the administration has lost in court 00:14:20.470 --> 00:14:22.450 sometimes? Yes. The source has mentioned they 00:14:22.450 --> 00:14:25.250 actually lost a case just yesterday about arbitrarily 00:14:25.250 --> 00:14:28.029 freezing allocated funds, even with a Trump -appointed 00:14:28.029 --> 00:14:30.679 judge presiding. So the legal route isn't guaranteed 00:14:30.679 --> 00:14:32.539 for the administration either. Are there key 00:14:32.539 --> 00:14:35.480 differences in UCLA's situation compared to Harvard 00:14:35.480 --> 00:14:38.220 or Columbia? The sources point out two big ones, 00:14:38.220 --> 00:14:41.299 yeah. First, the sheer amount of money demanded 00:14:41.299 --> 00:14:44.000 from UCLA that billion -dollar fine is way higher. 00:14:44.600 --> 00:14:48.019 And UCLA, while wealthy, is not quite as well 00:14:48.019 --> 00:14:50.980 -heeled as Harvard. Taking a nine - or ten -figure 00:14:50.980 --> 00:14:53.059 hit is tougher for them. Makes sense. What's 00:14:53.059 --> 00:14:55.220 the second difference? This one could be the 00:14:55.220 --> 00:14:59.129 biggie. Governor Gavin Newsom. Ah, him again. 00:14:59.509 --> 00:15:02.269 Unlike governors in other states, Newsom reportedly 00:15:02.269 --> 00:15:05.549 plans to run for president in 2028. And he's 00:15:05.549 --> 00:15:08.370 actively looking for every opportunity to burnish 00:15:08.370 --> 00:15:11.350 his credentials as the Trump slayer. So he might 00:15:11.350 --> 00:15:14.529 intervene. He might. And crucially, he's part 00:15:14.529 --> 00:15:16.990 of U .C. governance as an ex officio regent. 00:15:17.100 --> 00:15:19.919 Any settlement agreement would have to be approved 00:15:19.919 --> 00:15:22.100 by the regents. And Newsom could block it. The 00:15:22.100 --> 00:15:24.620 sources suggest he might well use his influence 00:15:24.620 --> 00:15:27.120 to block that. It adds a whole other layer of 00:15:27.120 --> 00:15:29.440 political complexity for UCLA. Definitely a wild 00:15:29.440 --> 00:15:32.100 card. And there was one more kind of surprising 00:15:32.100 --> 00:15:35.320 theory about why the UCLA action was delayed. 00:15:35.539 --> 00:15:37.460 Yeah, sort of a speculative one, but interesting. 00:15:37.559 --> 00:15:40.120 What is it? Unlike most elite academic schools, 00:15:40.480 --> 00:15:42.909 UCLA is also an elite athletic school. Right, 00:15:43.090 --> 00:15:45.269 big sports programs. And college football season 00:15:45.269 --> 00:15:48.250 is just starting up. Ah. So the theory floated 00:15:48.250 --> 00:15:51.309 is that maybe the White House waited to maximize 00:15:51.309 --> 00:15:53.549 the attention it gets. Use the football spotlight? 00:15:54.009 --> 00:15:56.509 Yeah, the idea being this extortion attempt, 00:15:56.750 --> 00:15:59.409 as the source calls it, is likely to get mentioned 00:15:59.409 --> 00:16:01.950 at least a few times during coverage of the football 00:16:01.950 --> 00:16:04.809 team. It's a theory about leveraging media cycles. 00:16:05.210 --> 00:16:07.750 That's... Quite the calculation, if true. Okay, 00:16:07.769 --> 00:16:09.990 let's shift from targeting institutions to targeting, 00:16:09.990 --> 00:16:12.789 well, reality itself. Numbers. The sources talk 00:16:12.789 --> 00:16:15.210 about imaginary numbers. What's the issue there? 00:16:15.470 --> 00:16:17.490 Well, connecting back to the point about educated 00:16:17.490 --> 00:16:20.490 people. Another issue for autocratic leaders, 00:16:20.730 --> 00:16:22.490 according to these sources, is that educated 00:16:22.490 --> 00:16:25.309 folks tend to know what the real numbers are. 00:16:25.389 --> 00:16:28.610 Or at least have a ballpark idea. Exactly. Or 00:16:28.610 --> 00:16:31.309 roughly what they should be. So they can often... 00:16:31.149 --> 00:16:33.750 sniff out fake numbers. Which is a problem if 00:16:33.750 --> 00:16:36.529 you're trying to create your own reality. Precisely. 00:16:36.769 --> 00:16:39.049 It's a problem for Trump, who is trying to create 00:16:39.049 --> 00:16:42.169 his own economic and statistical reality, as 00:16:42.169 --> 00:16:44.330 the source puts it. So how is this playing out 00:16:44.330 --> 00:16:47.950 with government agencies that handle data, like 00:16:47.950 --> 00:16:50.210 the Bureau of Labor Statistics? Well, the sources 00:16:50.210 --> 00:16:52.690 report that he fired the head of the BLS, Dr. 00:16:52.889 --> 00:16:55.570 Erica McIntarfer, who is described as actually 00:16:55.570 --> 00:16:58.340 qualified. Fired her. And replaced her with whom? 00:16:58.720 --> 00:17:00.740 He tapped an economist from the Heritage Foundation 00:17:00.740 --> 00:17:03.679 named E .J. Antony. Heritage Foundation. OK. 00:17:04.099 --> 00:17:06.519 What are Antony's qualifications, according to 00:17:06.519 --> 00:17:09.599 the sources? Well, on paper, he has advanced 00:17:09.599 --> 00:17:12.680 degrees in economics, master's and Ph .D., and 00:17:12.680 --> 00:17:15.539 some public sector experience. Cluts. But the 00:17:15.539 --> 00:17:18.799 sources note he only finished his Ph .D. in 2020. 00:17:19.299 --> 00:17:22.640 So not exactly what you would call experienced. 00:17:22.799 --> 00:17:24.960 Relatively new. And his degrees are from Northern 00:17:24.960 --> 00:17:27.890 Illinois University. The sources make a point 00:17:27.890 --> 00:17:30.670 of saying he very noticeably avoids mentioning 00:17:30.670 --> 00:17:33.309 the name of his alma mater on his official bio. 00:17:33.829 --> 00:17:36.309 Hmm. Anything else? Yes. The bigger issue highlighted 00:17:36.309 --> 00:17:40.009 is his employer, the Heritage Foundation, described 00:17:40.009 --> 00:17:42.769 as the same right -wing think tank that employs 00:17:42.769 --> 00:17:45.170 Stephen Moore. Stephen Moore, the economist who 00:17:45.170 --> 00:17:47.329 reportedly visited the Oval Office recently. 00:17:47.430 --> 00:17:49.369 To spin fantasies about the employment numbers, 00:17:49.750 --> 00:17:52.029 according to the source, yes. And before Heritage, 00:17:52.450 --> 00:17:54.819 Antoni worked at another right -wing group. the 00:17:54.819 --> 00:17:57.740 Texas Public Policy Foundation. So the implication 00:17:57.740 --> 00:18:01.119 is clear. What do the sources advise about BLS 00:18:01.119 --> 00:18:03.680 data going forward? Basically take anything that 00:18:03.680 --> 00:18:06.180 comes out of BLS for the next three years with 00:18:06.180 --> 00:18:09.380 multiple barrels of salt. Multiple barrels. Strong 00:18:09.380 --> 00:18:12.519 warning. They suggest that Picking this lightly 00:18:12.519 --> 00:18:15.359 qualified think tanker is exactly what you expect 00:18:15.359 --> 00:18:18.200 if Trump couldn't get a more, quote, legitimate 00:18:18.200 --> 00:18:21.359 candidate to behave corruptly. It raises serious 00:18:21.359 --> 00:18:23.319 questions about data integrity. And it wasn't 00:18:23.319 --> 00:18:25.400 just economic data, right? There was another 00:18:25.400 --> 00:18:27.779 database issue mentioned. That's right. The White 00:18:27.779 --> 00:18:29.680 House was also reportedly trying to make a database 00:18:29.680 --> 00:18:32.359 private one that tracks federal spending. Why 00:18:32.359 --> 00:18:35.200 would they do that? The source suggests the obvious 00:18:35.200 --> 00:18:37.680 purpose here is to hide outlays on things that 00:18:37.680 --> 00:18:40.859 might not be so popular and potentially also 00:18:40.859 --> 00:18:44.420 to hide any illegal impoundment of funds, refusing 00:18:44.420 --> 00:18:47.059 to spend money Congress allocated. Did they succeed? 00:18:47.299 --> 00:18:49.019 No, they actually lost in court yesterday on 00:18:49.019 --> 00:18:51.299 that issue. But as of the time the source was 00:18:51.299 --> 00:18:53.680 written, the database has not been restored. 00:18:54.519 --> 00:18:56.799 So transparency is still lacking there. OK, from 00:18:56.799 --> 00:18:59.480 manipulating data to maybe the most direct form 00:18:59.480 --> 00:19:02.680 of power abuse, personal enrichment, using public 00:19:02.680 --> 00:19:04.920 office for private gain, what connection did 00:19:04.920 --> 00:19:07.140 the sources draw here? They explain that one 00:19:07.140 --> 00:19:10.900 of the real telltale signs of a dictatorial leader 00:19:10.900 --> 00:19:14.019 throughout history is their use of their position 00:19:14.019 --> 00:19:16.259 to fill their own personal bank account. They 00:19:16.259 --> 00:19:19.779 list examples. Oh, yeah. Putin, Assad, the Shah 00:19:19.779 --> 00:19:23.539 of Iran, Franco, Saddam Hussein, the Castros, 00:19:23.839 --> 00:19:26.539 Papa Doc and Baby Doc Duvalier in Haiti, Pol 00:19:26.539 --> 00:19:30.460 Pot, Idi Amin. A rogues gallery. Right. All leaders 00:19:30.460 --> 00:19:33.640 who, according to the sources, ended up pilfering 00:19:33.640 --> 00:19:36.059 tens of millions or hundreds of millions or billions 00:19:36.059 --> 00:19:38.900 of dollars. It's a disturbingly common pattern. 00:19:39.460 --> 00:19:41.819 So turning to Trump, there was a big investigation 00:19:41.819 --> 00:19:44.859 mentioned by David Kirkpatrick at the New Yorker. 00:19:45.319 --> 00:19:47.640 What did that investigation estimate regarding 00:19:47.640 --> 00:19:49.779 how much Trump and his family have reportedly 00:19:49.779 --> 00:19:52.319 enriched themselves from the presidency? The 00:19:52.319 --> 00:19:54.680 number is pretty staggering. The sources give 00:19:54.680 --> 00:19:56.940 an overall total estimate from Kirkpatrick's 00:19:56.940 --> 00:20:01.660 work of $3 .372 billion. $3 .3 billion. Billion, 00:20:01.680 --> 00:20:04.059 with a B. Now, there are some important caveats 00:20:04.059 --> 00:20:06.599 the sources mention. OK, like what? Kirkpatrick 00:20:06.599 --> 00:20:08.880 apparently didn't assign much value to Trump's 00:20:08.880 --> 00:20:11.319 own claims about his brand being worth astronomical 00:20:11.319 --> 00:20:14.539 sums. Right. Also, some assets, like Truth Social, 00:20:14.920 --> 00:20:18.380 are expected to drop precipitously in value once 00:20:18.380 --> 00:20:21.420 he leaves office. Makes sense. And the key point. 00:20:21.640 --> 00:20:24.619 The sources suggest that while Trump was maybe 00:20:24.619 --> 00:20:27.279 somewhat cautious about profiting off the presidency 00:20:27.279 --> 00:20:30.220 at his first term, now all of that is out the 00:20:30.220 --> 00:20:33.220 window, meaning the gloves are off and any estimates 00:20:33.220 --> 00:20:35.299 for future enrichment, what the source calls 00:20:35.299 --> 00:20:39.039 grifting, are necessarily very preliminary. This 00:20:39.039 --> 00:20:41.920 $3 .3 billion is based on what's already known 00:20:41.920 --> 00:20:44.420 or estimated. Okay, $3 .3 billion. Let's try 00:20:44.420 --> 00:20:46.420 to unpack that. What are the major categories 00:20:46.420 --> 00:20:48.660 making up that total? Kirkpatrick breaks it down. 00:20:48.700 --> 00:20:53.009 First, licensing. That totals about $165 .4 million. 00:20:53.349 --> 00:20:55.950 Licensing his name. Exactly. This includes at 00:20:55.950 --> 00:20:58.250 least five new deals for projects in the Gulf 00:20:58.250 --> 00:21:01.230 States worth over $100 million combined. The 00:21:01.230 --> 00:21:04.170 Trump -Hanoi Hotel deal, about $40 million. And 00:21:04.170 --> 00:21:06.769 this thing called 1789 Capital. What's that? 00:21:07.029 --> 00:21:08.789 Apparently it's a venture where the Trump family 00:21:08.789 --> 00:21:11.170 gets paid nearly $20 million just to lend their 00:21:11.170 --> 00:21:12.950 name to some right -wing social clubs. Okay, 00:21:13.130 --> 00:21:15.980 $165 million in licensing. What's next? Business 00:21:15.980 --> 00:21:19.400 ventures. That adds up to about $177 .7 million. 00:21:19.900 --> 00:21:22.380 This is from his existing businesses. Mostly. 00:21:23.079 --> 00:21:26.980 The biggest chunk, $125 million, is from dramatically 00:21:26.980 --> 00:21:30.180 increased membership fees at Mar -a -Lago. Ah, 00:21:30.180 --> 00:21:31.960 doubling the fees after he became president. 00:21:31.980 --> 00:21:34.960 Right. Then there's about $28 million from selling 00:21:34.960 --> 00:21:38.559 merch hats, shirts, even those blasphemous Bibles 00:21:38.559 --> 00:21:42.140 the source mentions, and an estimated $25 million 00:21:42.140 --> 00:21:45.779 in value derived from truth social. OK, licensing, 00:21:46.259 --> 00:21:48.619 business ventures, what else? The biggest category 00:21:48.619 --> 00:21:53.279 by far, crypto, totaling nearly $2 .37 billion. 00:21:54.000 --> 00:21:56.920 $2 .4 billion from crypto? Roughly. Yeah, the 00:21:56.920 --> 00:22:00.039 source explicitly states crypto is the place 00:22:00.039 --> 00:22:02.700 to be for the contemporary grifter. Wow, how 00:22:02.700 --> 00:22:04.640 does that break down? Well, there are the collectible 00:22:04.640 --> 00:22:06.680 Trump trading cards, the NFTs that brought in 00:22:06.680 --> 00:22:08.920 over $14 million. I remember those. Then there 00:22:08.920 --> 00:22:11.700 are ventures reportedly involving his sons. something 00:22:11.700 --> 00:22:14.000 called World Liberty Financial Tokens, worth 00:22:14.000 --> 00:22:16.759 over $400 million, and a World Liberty Financial 00:22:16.759 --> 00:22:19.819 Stablecoin worth over $240 million. OK. Plus, 00:22:19.960 --> 00:22:21.759 the Sons apparently licensed the family name 00:22:21.759 --> 00:22:24.140 to something called American Bitcoin for $13 00:22:24.140 --> 00:22:27.200 million. And Trump himself. His own first crypto 00:22:27.200 --> 00:22:29.980 venture, called Trump Media, is valued at $1 00:22:29.980 --> 00:22:34.079 .3 billion in this estimate. And his personal 00:22:34.079 --> 00:22:37.900 mean coin, Trump, is pegged at $385 million. 00:22:38.220 --> 00:22:41.589 That is just... Astronomical. Is there another 00:22:41.589 --> 00:22:44.549 category? Yes, a final category labeled Other. 00:22:45.109 --> 00:22:47.970 This totals about $661 million. OK, what's an 00:22:47.970 --> 00:22:51.509 Other? It's a mix. $100 million is attributed 00:22:51.509 --> 00:22:54.470 to campaign expenses, specifically legal and 00:22:54.470 --> 00:22:56.789 other personal costs paid by campaigns packs. 00:22:57.109 --> 00:22:59.309 Using campaign funds for personal legal bills. 00:22:59.410 --> 00:23:02.029 That's the implication. Then there's $320 million 00:23:02.029 --> 00:23:04.309 in Saudi wealth management money, reportedly 00:23:04.309 --> 00:23:06.890 paid to Jared Kushner and Ivanka Trump. From 00:23:06.890 --> 00:23:09.990 the Saudis? Yes. Also, $150 million attributed 00:23:09.990 --> 00:23:12.329 to the Qatari jet, which the source says was 00:23:12.329 --> 00:23:14.369 nominally Air Force One for some period of time. 00:23:14.630 --> 00:23:16.589 Some private jet funded by Qatar used like Air 00:23:16.589 --> 00:23:18.849 Force One. That seems to be the gist. And finally, 00:23:18.890 --> 00:23:21.609 $91 million from what Kirkpatrick calls corporate 00:23:21.609 --> 00:23:23.450 shakedowns, basically protection money paid to 00:23:23.450 --> 00:23:26.309 the Trumps by companies like CBS, Amazon, and 00:23:26.309 --> 00:23:28.450 others. To avoid negative attention or action 00:23:28.450 --> 00:23:30.730 from the administration. That appears to be the 00:23:30.730 --> 00:23:33.470 interpretation. So adding all that up, licensing, 00:23:33.809 --> 00:23:36.930 business ventures, crypto, other. gets you to 00:23:36.930 --> 00:23:41.630 that $3 .372 billion figure. It's just incredible. 00:23:42.210 --> 00:23:44.430 How does this compare, though, to the examples 00:23:44.430 --> 00:23:47.509 you gave earlier? Dictators directly stealing 00:23:47.509 --> 00:23:50.130 government funds. That's an important distinction 00:23:50.130 --> 00:23:52.930 the source makes. While the Trumps have, according 00:23:52.930 --> 00:23:55.589 to this investigation, greatly enriched themselves, 00:23:56.089 --> 00:23:59.329 they haven't yet managed to directly steer billions 00:23:59.329 --> 00:24:02.109 in government funds into their own pockets in 00:24:02.109 --> 00:24:04.789 that classic direct plundering way. So it's more 00:24:04.789 --> 00:24:07.690 leveraging the office for private deals and ventures. 00:24:07.950 --> 00:24:10.529 Primarily, yes. Using the power and prestige 00:24:10.529 --> 00:24:12.910 of the presidency to boost existing businesses, 00:24:13.289 --> 00:24:15.849 create new ones, secure favorable deals and draw 00:24:15.849 --> 00:24:17.890 investments, particularly from foreign sources. 00:24:18.089 --> 00:24:20.009 But the source leaves the door open. It does, 00:24:20.069 --> 00:24:21.829 it adds. Time will tell if they try to change 00:24:21.829 --> 00:24:24.109 that. It notes these are people who, quote, can 00:24:24.109 --> 00:24:26.069 never, ever, ever have enough money and that 00:24:26.069 --> 00:24:28.809 they've been awfully good at avoiding the criminal 00:24:28.809 --> 00:24:31.190 consequences of their actions. Maybe feeling 00:24:31.190 --> 00:24:34.029 bulletproof at this point. So the source concludes, 00:24:34.509 --> 00:24:37.930 it could go either way. Direct plundering isn't 00:24:37.930 --> 00:24:40.089 off the table in the future, in their view. A 00:24:40.089 --> 00:24:42.269 really sobering thought. We have certainly unpacked 00:24:42.269 --> 00:24:44.750 a lot today. We really have. From that federal 00:24:44.750 --> 00:24:48.410 assertion of power in DC, the targeting of universities. 00:24:48.549 --> 00:24:51.130 To global trade tactics, manipulating official 00:24:51.130 --> 00:24:53.789 data. And ending with these truly astonishing 00:24:53.789 --> 00:24:56.269 figures about personal enrichment connected to 00:24:56.269 --> 00:24:58.029 public office. Yeah, if you try to connect it 00:24:58.029 --> 00:25:01.039 all, see the bigger picture. What seems to emerge 00:25:01.039 --> 00:25:04.480 is this complex web of strategies. Different 00:25:04.480 --> 00:25:07.480 ways power can be exerted, maybe ways to consolidate 00:25:07.480 --> 00:25:10.940 control across various parts of society. It really 00:25:10.940 --> 00:25:12.859 highlights why it's so important to look past 00:25:12.859 --> 00:25:15.559 the headlines. Try to understand the motivations, 00:25:15.759 --> 00:25:18.019 the implications for our institutions, for the 00:25:18.019 --> 00:25:20.880 very information we rely on. So the question 00:25:20.880 --> 00:25:24.880 for you listening is, what does all this mean? 00:25:25.259 --> 00:25:27.920 When you see these different kinds of power plays 00:25:27.920 --> 00:25:31.279 unfolding, controlling a city, pressuring universities, 00:25:31.779 --> 00:25:35.180 shaping trade deals, manipulating data, potentially 00:25:35.180 --> 00:25:37.900 enriching oneself, what does it reveal? What 00:25:37.900 --> 00:25:39.779 does it tell us about those ongoing tensions 00:25:39.779 --> 00:25:42.500 between government authority and individual freedom? 00:25:42.759 --> 00:25:45.000 Or between the official stories we're told and 00:25:45.000 --> 00:25:47.380 the underlying reality, especially now when we're 00:25:47.380 --> 00:25:49.339 all just drowning in information? Definitely 00:25:49.339 --> 00:25:50.420 something to keep thinking about.