WEBVTT

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Welcome to the Deep Dive. Today we're really

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peeling back the layers on a fascinating collection

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of sources. They reveal some of the most critical

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political maneuvers happening right now. We've

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got some really compelling insights into, well,

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high stakes international diplomacy, the details

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of domestic legal battles and, you know, the

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ever shifting landscape of electoral politics.

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Our mission, as always, is to sift through all

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this information, pull out those essential nuggets

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of knowledge and give you the context you need.

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We want you to walk away feeling truly well informed,

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maybe even with a few aha moments, but without

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feeling overloaded. Our sources today are pretty

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diverse, everything from news analysis and statistical

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modeling to legal reports and some pretty bold

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strategic proposals. Together, they paint a complex,

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sometimes surprising picture of power strategy

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and, well, the political repercussions. OK, let's

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unpack this first one. We're starting with a

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highly anticipated event. the meeting between

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Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin in Alaska. The

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actual choice of location for this Friday summit

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is generating quite a bit of chatter. What's

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the immediate reaction we're seeing in the sources

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about this gathering? Yeah, the location itself,

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Alaska, is definitely a talking point, especially

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among Russian military bloggers who seem genuinely

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enthusiastic. They see Alaska and they use the

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phrase, rightfully theirs, drawing these parallels

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to history where countries sold or ceded land.

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sharp contrast to more neutral spots like Geneva

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or maybe Vienna, right? Right. Much more loaded.

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Exactly. But what's really fascinating here,

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I think, beyond just the venue, is the proposed

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agenda, especially around Ukraine. The analyses

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we've looked at suggest a potential offer from

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Trump basically give part of Ukraine to Russia

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for a temporary peace, which would, you know,

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let Putin rebuild his forces. But this immediately

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brings up a critical question, doesn't it? What

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about Ukraine's say in all this? And what did

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the sources tell us about Ukraine's response?

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Because it seems unlikely they'd just be passive

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observers here. Precisely. President Zelensky

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has already been very firm. He's rejected any

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idea like that. The Ukrainian Constitution, and

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this is crucial, doesn't actually give him the

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authority to just cede land. And he insists any

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deal has to involve Ukraine directly. Trump,

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though, reportedly sees it differently, more

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like a real estate deal, you know, trading land

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here for land there, like buying property. And

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while maybe theoretically a swap of Crimea for

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some eastern territory might be something Zelensky

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could consider in a different reality, the sources

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are very clear. There's zero indication Putin

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would ever actually return Crimea. None. This

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kind of high stakes land for peace bargaining.

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Yeah. It feels familiar. What historical parallel

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do our sources draw? It's quite a striking one.

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Well, that brings us to a really compelling part

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of this analysis. The sources draw this stark

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parallel to the 1938 Munich agreement. That's

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where British Prime Minister Neville Chamberlain

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essentially handed over the Sudetenland, part

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of Czechoslovakia, to Adolf Hitler. In exchange

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for peace in our time. Exactly. In return for

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what turned out to be a totally meaningless promise

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of peace. And what's chilling about that moment

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is Czechoslovakia wasn't even at the table. They

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had no say in their own fate. Winston Churchill

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had that famous line about it. You were given

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the choice between war and dishonor. You chose

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dishonor and you will have war. And history proved

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him right. Sadly, yes. Hitler then swallowed

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all of Czechoslovakia, which really set the stage

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for World War II. So, OK, that's the historical

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context. What stops something similar happening

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now? Is Ukraine's position fundamentally different

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or are we just seeing history repeat itself?

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Well, the key difference, according to these

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analyses, is Ukraine's deep, deep distrust of

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Russia. and their absolute demand for solid security

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guarantees. Real ones. This makes any deal that

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actually favors Ukraine highly unlikely because,

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as the sources put it pretty bluntly, neither

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Trump nor Putin cares one whit about Ukraine.

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So Putin's tactic, the sources suggest, is likely

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to offer these meaningless promises, things Trump

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can then go and publicly claim is a big win.

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We saw something a bit similar. Remember when

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Ursula von der Leyen talked about that $600 billion

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EU investment in the U .S.? Vaguely, yes. Well,

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the catch was it wasn't a government commitment.

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It was all dependent on private companies deciding

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it was in their interest, kind of glossed over

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that part. Right. The details matter. So in this

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scenario, what kind of meaningless promises could

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Putin realistically offer that might actually

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appeal to Trump, given his focus on the photo

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op and claiming wins? The sources lay out several

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possibilities. Putin could promise to stop selling

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oil to India, knowing full well China would just

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step in, buy it, and resell it. No real change.

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OK. He could agree to stop drone attacks on Kyiv,

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for example, but then just switch to using missiles

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a few weeks later. A technicality, basically.

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Pretty much. Or he might propose working with

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the US to exploit Ukraine's rare earth minerals,

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maybe eliminate tariffs on the tiny amount of

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US goods sold to Russia. We're talking like $500

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million about what goes to Bermuda. Hardly a

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game changer. Not at all. And maybe the most

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provocative, he could offer to nominate Trump

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for a Nobel Peace Prize. Look, the clear takeaway

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is Putin has a long history of breaking promises.

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He knows or seems to believe that Trump cares

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more about the handshake and the photo op than

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the actual verifiable details. You know, Reagan's

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approach was trust but verify. Trump's approach,

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these sources say, is pretty much the same, except

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without the verify part. Putin's agreed to ceasefires

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before and then broken them within weeks. It's

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happened multiple times. So given that pattern,

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what do the sources predict as the real outcome

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of this meeting? Beyond the headlines, John Bolton's

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assessment, which our sources quote, Does that

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line up? It absolutely does. Bolton's view is

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pretty grim. He says, I have a feeling this is

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sliding very quickly in Russia's direction. Hmm.

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He predicts Putin will make an offer that maybe

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Trump doesn't even fully understand, then turn

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around and tell Zelensky, basically, you have

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no cards. Hmm. The core insight here, according

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to these analyses, is that Trump just wants the

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credit for making a deal. The substance, the

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implications for Ukraine, less important. So

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if getting a deal for the optics is Trump's goal,

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what about Putin? What do our sources say about

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his deeper motivations? What does he really want

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from this tactically and strategically? That's

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a really critical question about Putin's endgame,

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isn't it? Tactically, the sources suggest he

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wants a deal that Trump thinks is great, that

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he can sell as a win, but which is actually completely

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unacceptable to the other NATO members. Driving

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a wedge. Exactly. So discord between Trump and

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the rest of the alliance. That's the goal. His

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ideal deal. It probably involves land swaps,

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yes, but also these crucial promises. No NATO

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troops in Ukraine. Ukraine stays out of military

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alliances. The West doesn't rearm Ukraine, and

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Ukraine isn't allowed to develop its own weapons

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industry. Basically, keep Ukraine weak, vulnerable

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for another invasion down the road. And strategically.

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The bigger picture. Strategically, the historical

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echo is fascinating. Putin, the sources suggest,

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might be thinking about the Yalta Conference

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in 1945. You know, where Stalin, Roosevelt, and

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Churchill essentially carved up Europe. Dividing

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spheres of influence. Precisely. Putin's vision,

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as these sources depict it, could be a kind of

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global division. Russia bosses Europe, the US

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handles North and South America, and China gets

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Asia. Trump... maybe, sees this as a win for

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being a good negotiator, acquiring more real

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estate on the global map. And it's crucial to

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remember Putin's view. He's called the 1991 breakup

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of the Soviet Union the greatest geopolitical

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catastrophe of the century, reassembling it,

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even partly, by force. Well, in his mind, that

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could make him one of the greatest czars of all

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time. OK, so shifting from that global chessboard,

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let's bring it home. Our sources show similar

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kinds of strategic plays and vulnerabilities

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happening right here. First up. economic policies,

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specifically tariffs. They're broadly unpopular

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nationally, we know that. But what do the sources

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tell us about their impact in those key swing

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states? Yeah, we looked at the statistical modeling

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from G. Eliot Morris. He's Nate Silver's successor

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at FiveThirtyEight. He uses this method to figure

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out state by state views on tariffs by correlating

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them with demographics, race, age, sex, education,

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income, party affiliation, all that on a national

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level. And what did he find in the swing states?

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Well, what's striking is that in all 13 sw -

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states analyzed, approval for tariffs is lower

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than Trump's 2024 vote percentage in that same

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state. Meaning? Meaning a substantial number

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of people who actually voted for Trump are unhappy

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with the tariffs. Just for context, only 10 states

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overall show tariff approval over 50 percent,

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and they're all deep red states. Even West Virginia,

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the highest at 56 percent approval. Trump got

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70 percent of the vote there in 2024, so there's

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still a gap. Okay, connecting this to the bigger

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picture, that sounds like a potential weak spot

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for one side and maybe a clear opening for the

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other, especially if the economy is already squeezing

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people. Absolutely. It gives Democrats a pretty

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direct line of attack for the midterms, doesn't

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it? Especially if we see, say, a recession or

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more inflation. It just makes it easier to highlight

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how these specific economic policies might be

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hitting voters' wallets, even voters within a

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candidate's own base. It lets Democrats, you

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know, pin the tail on the elephant, blaming tariffs

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for any financial squeeze. Right. Beyond economics,

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though, our sources point to another domestic

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battleground. this relentless, seemingly coordinated

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campaign using legal and administrative power

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against perceived critics. Starting with the

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surprising turn in the Letitia James case in

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New York, she went after Trump successfully,

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and now it looks like the tables might be turning.

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That's right. Letitia James, the New York AG,

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won that big civil case against Trump over half

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a billion dollars now with interest, though it's

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still on appeal. OK. What's fascinating now is

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this apparent revenge strategy. The Department

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of Justice has subpoenaed James. It's part of

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an investigation into whether making Trump pay

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for, well, defrauding banks violated his civil

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rights. His civil rights. Yeah. The sources note

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the irony there, saying it's like the 14th Amendment

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guarantees everyone, regardless of race, the

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right to defraud banks. The key players involved

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are interesting, too. John Sartone, the interim

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U .S. attorney up there, he worked for Trump's

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election team, and federal judges actually refused

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to make his appointment permanent. And then there's

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special prosecutor Ed Martin, who Trump once

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nominated for U .S. attorney for D .C., but had

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to withdraw. Now he's apparently been cyst on

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James. And there's something else, too. About

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her residency? Yes. There are these unverified

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media reports claiming James listed her niece's

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Virginia house as her main residence on a mortgage

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application. That could potentially be bank fraud.

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She's hired Abby Lowell, a very high profile

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defense attorney, to handle it. So this isn't

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just about Letitia James then. The sources paint

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this as part of a much broader, more systematic

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use of federal power. What's the underlying pattern

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here? What's the motivation? Well, what's really

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insightful, I think, is how this case fits into

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this frankly chilling pattern of weaponizing

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federal agencies. Our sources detail a very deliberate

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strategy, using the full might of the federal

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government not just to punish critics, but to

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create this profound chilling effect across the

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board. Sending a message. Exactly. Sending a

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message. Don't cross me. Don't criticize me.

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And it extends to a lot of high profile people.

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You see these allegations of treason against

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Barack Obama leading to a grand jury probe despite,

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you know, tons of evidence of Russian interference

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in 2016 and zero evidence Obama did anything

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wrong. Right. James Comey... the former FBI Director

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Trump fired. In John Brennan, the former CIA

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Director Trump often attacked, both reportedly

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under FBI investigation now. Senator Adam Schiff,

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who managed the impeachment. The DOJ is apparently

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looking into alleged mortgage fraud, something

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his lawyer strongly. denies. Liz Cheney. Liz

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Cheney, co -chair of the January 6th committee.

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Trump called for a televised military tribunal

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for her, though no credible reports of an FBI

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investigation there yet. Even the Vindman brothers,

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Alexander, who testified about the Zelensky call,

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and his twin, Eugene, who reported they had a

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business venture investigated by Ed Martin. And

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Jack Smith, the special counsel who indicted

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Trump over the documents case on January 6th.

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His cases were suspended after the election,

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but now Trump has sixed the office's special

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counsel on him. him for a supposed Hatch Act

00:12:17.350 --> 00:12:19.750
violation. The Hatch Act. Isn't that usually

00:12:19.750 --> 00:12:23.070
for federal employees engaging in politics? Generally,

00:12:23.129 --> 00:12:25.940
yes. Look. The consensus from the sources is

00:12:25.940 --> 00:12:28.100
pretty clear. Most of these cases seem all made

00:12:28.100 --> 00:12:30.879
up. They probably will not get very far. But

00:12:30.879 --> 00:12:34.720
the targets, they rack up huge legal bills. Their

00:12:34.720 --> 00:12:36.779
lives are greatly disrupted. And that's the point,

00:12:36.860 --> 00:12:38.899
right, to send a message to anyone thinking of

00:12:38.899 --> 00:12:40.860
criticizing him in the future. And this targeting,

00:12:41.139 --> 00:12:42.919
it doesn't stop with individuals. It's even reaching

00:12:42.919 --> 00:12:45.639
into universities. Harvard specifically is facing

00:12:45.639 --> 00:12:48.179
this unprecedented threat over its patents. Why

00:12:48.179 --> 00:12:50.559
patents? What's that about? Yeah, this raises

00:12:50.559 --> 00:12:53.059
a really important question about how science

00:12:53.059 --> 00:12:55.259
and innovation usually work here. The process

00:12:55.259 --> 00:12:58.200
that's been in place for, what, 75 years? It's

00:12:58.200 --> 00:13:01.179
pretty standard. Universities get federal research

00:13:01.179 --> 00:13:03.460
funding. They invent things. They file patents.

00:13:03.860 --> 00:13:05.879
Then they license those patents to companies,

00:13:06.019 --> 00:13:09.320
get fees or royalties. It turns taxpayer -funded

00:13:09.320 --> 00:13:12.460
research into actual products and services. It's

00:13:12.460 --> 00:13:14.059
worked well. Nobody's really complained about

00:13:14.059 --> 00:13:15.960
it before. So what's different now with Harvard?

00:13:16.200 --> 00:13:18.440
Well, the Secretary of Commerce, Howard Lutnick,

00:13:18.600 --> 00:13:21.779
is demanding Harvard produce this huge list of

00:13:21.779 --> 00:13:24.360
all patents that came from federal grants. He

00:13:24.360 --> 00:13:26.980
says it's to check compliance with the Bay Dole

00:13:26.980 --> 00:13:29.659
Act. That's the law saying inventions from federal

00:13:29.659 --> 00:13:31.820
grants should benefit the American public, be

00:13:31.820 --> 00:13:34.460
commercialized. OK. Lutnick wants to know, is

00:13:34.460 --> 00:13:36.580
each patent being used? What are the licensing

00:13:36.580 --> 00:13:38.559
details? Where is the manufacturing happening?

00:13:38.600 --> 00:13:40.840
It's very extensive. And Harvard's response?

00:13:41.320 --> 00:13:43.440
Harvard basically says, look, our innovations

00:13:43.440 --> 00:13:46.240
are life -saving and industry redefining. and

00:13:46.240 --> 00:13:48.600
we're fully committed to complying with Betel.

00:13:49.200 --> 00:13:51.399
But the sources strongly suggest Trump himself

00:13:51.399 --> 00:13:54.379
has no interest in the Betel Act. It's really

00:13:54.379 --> 00:13:56.659
just about finding ways to punish Harvard if

00:13:56.659 --> 00:13:59.860
it refuses to submit to him. And financial punishment,

00:14:00.000 --> 00:14:02.940
that's often high on his do list. So it's leverage,

00:14:03.399 --> 00:14:06.059
not really about the law itself. And this is

00:14:06.059 --> 00:14:08.240
just aimed at Harvard, right? What's the broader

00:14:08.240 --> 00:14:10.240
picture for federal grants and universities?

00:14:10.639 --> 00:14:12.940
No, it definitely seems part of a bigger pattern.

00:14:13.120 --> 00:14:15.419
We're seeing reports of thousands of grants from

00:14:15.419 --> 00:14:18.279
NIH, the National Institutes of Health, NSF,

00:14:18.379 --> 00:14:20.720
the National Science Foundation, EPA, you name

00:14:20.720 --> 00:14:23.779
it, being prematurely terminated at universities

00:14:23.779 --> 00:14:25.879
all across the country. And what kinds of grants

00:14:25.879 --> 00:14:27.720
are being targeted? Well, they seem to be grants

00:14:27.720 --> 00:14:30.019
dealing with things like clean energy, climate

00:14:30.019 --> 00:14:32.389
change. and what the administration calls woke

00:14:32.389 --> 00:14:35.850
social, behavioral, and economic sciences, areas

00:14:35.850 --> 00:14:38.309
Trump wants to stamp out. So universities must

00:14:38.309 --> 00:14:41.289
be pushing back. Oh, yeah. Universities, even

00:14:41.289 --> 00:14:43.690
some state governments, are suing the federal

00:14:43.690 --> 00:14:45.929
government over these terminations, arguing they're

00:14:45.929 --> 00:14:49.110
arbitrary. Florida is mentioned as a special

00:14:49.110 --> 00:14:52.169
case. Governor Ron DeSantis has actually encouraged

00:14:52.169 --> 00:14:54.629
the termination of grants to his own state's

00:14:54.629 --> 00:14:56.690
universities. He said the Trump administration

00:14:56.690 --> 00:15:00.210
is working to get The rot out of higher education,

00:15:00.509 --> 00:15:03.330
the intellectual rot, the ideological rot. Wow.

00:15:03.610 --> 00:15:05.850
Are there specific examples of grants cut in

00:15:05.850 --> 00:15:09.190
Florida? The sources give a couple. One was a

00:15:09.190 --> 00:15:11.730
University of South Florida grant meant to improve

00:15:11.730 --> 00:15:14.649
an underserved minority neighborhood near Tampa.

00:15:15.409 --> 00:15:17.409
Another was helping restore clean water service

00:15:17.409 --> 00:15:19.529
to apartment complexes hit by Hurricane Milton.

00:15:20.090 --> 00:15:22.750
Both terminated. So what are the legal grounds

00:15:22.750 --> 00:15:24.909
here? Can the government just cancel grants like

00:15:24.909 --> 00:15:27.570
that? It's complicated. Unlike private contracts,

00:15:27.610 --> 00:15:29.269
where you can't just cancel if the service is

00:15:29.269 --> 00:15:31.470
being provided, the government is generally allowed

00:15:31.470 --> 00:15:34.309
to terminate contracts any time, but it has to

00:15:34.309 --> 00:15:36.990
have a valid justification. So the sources basically

00:15:36.990 --> 00:15:39.110
say the courts are going to be working overtime

00:15:39.110 --> 00:15:41.169
for the next several years, trying to figure

00:15:41.169 --> 00:15:43.230
out if the justifications here hold up. Okay.

00:15:43.509 --> 00:15:45.570
Finally, let's shift to the upcoming elections,

00:15:46.070 --> 00:15:49.350
specifically the House. Our sources say retirement

00:15:49.350 --> 00:15:52.350
season is on hold. And it's all tied to this

00:15:52.350 --> 00:15:54.610
unprecedented uncertainty around redistricting.

00:15:55.309 --> 00:15:57.730
What's going on? Why is this usual part of the

00:15:57.730 --> 00:16:01.690
cycle paused? Yeah, normally August recess is

00:16:01.690 --> 00:16:03.909
prime time for this. Members go home, talk to

00:16:03.909 --> 00:16:06.269
constituents, family, friends, decide if they

00:16:06.269 --> 00:16:08.230
want to run again. You know, some older members

00:16:08.230 --> 00:16:10.669
miss home. Maybe they're tired of the constant

00:16:10.669 --> 00:16:13.169
fundraising, the constituents yelling. The grind.

00:16:13.450 --> 00:16:16.799
Exactly. On average, you see about 39 house retirements

00:16:16.799 --> 00:16:19.179
around this time each cycle. But the big difference

00:16:19.179 --> 00:16:22.659
now, the new factor for 2026, is this huge uncertainty.

00:16:23.279 --> 00:16:25.299
Members literally don't know what their district

00:16:25.299 --> 00:16:27.539
will look like because of all this redistricting

00:16:27.539 --> 00:16:30.000
curer. Unlike previous cycles where it was mostly

00:16:30.000 --> 00:16:33.100
settled by now. Right. Usually after a census,

00:16:33.320 --> 00:16:35.379
the lines are pretty much set by the summer before

00:16:35.379 --> 00:16:38.240
the election year. Not this time. And what's

00:16:38.240 --> 00:16:40.820
fascinating is how this uncertainty ripples outwards.

00:16:41.279 --> 00:16:43.340
It's not just the members directly targeted for

00:16:43.340 --> 00:16:45.899
defeat. Think about it. Even a safe neighboring

00:16:45.899 --> 00:16:48.379
district might suddenly become competitive. Say

00:16:48.379 --> 00:16:51.240
you have a safe R -plus -10 district. To make

00:16:51.240 --> 00:16:53.519
a nearby targeted district more winnable for

00:16:53.519 --> 00:16:55.820
Republicans, they might redraw the line so that

00:16:55.820 --> 00:17:02.850
R -plus -10 becomes maybe R -plus -4. The targeted

00:17:02.850 --> 00:17:05.210
one. Precisely. So incumbents who thought they

00:17:05.210 --> 00:17:07.569
were totally secure might suddenly find themselves

00:17:07.569 --> 00:17:09.970
in a real fight. This could lead to a whole spate

00:17:09.970 --> 00:17:12.210
of retirements in the fall instead of the summer.

00:17:12.670 --> 00:17:14.829
And what are the knock on effects of these late

00:17:14.829 --> 00:17:17.210
retirements on the election cycle itself? Well,

00:17:17.309 --> 00:17:20.190
the downstream consequences are pretty significant.

00:17:21.029 --> 00:17:23.089
Filing deadlines for primaries start kicking

00:17:23.089 --> 00:17:26.569
in around December. If members retire late, say

00:17:26.569 --> 00:17:29.589
in the fall, that leaves much less time for like

00:17:29.589 --> 00:17:31.369
state senators to decide if they want to run

00:17:31.369 --> 00:17:34.009
for that House seat or for state House members

00:17:34.009 --> 00:17:36.329
to plan a run for the now vacant state Senate

00:17:36.329 --> 00:17:39.869
seat. It creates a whole chain reaction. It could

00:17:39.869 --> 00:17:42.950
lead to really hastily made decisions, maybe

00:17:42.950 --> 00:17:45.490
candidates who really aren't viable jumping in

00:17:45.490 --> 00:17:47.349
just because the opportunity is there late. You

00:17:47.349 --> 00:17:49.329
could end up with some really messy primaries

00:17:49.329 --> 00:17:52.019
next spring. As the analyses we read put it,

00:17:52.380 --> 00:17:54.440
we now have a level of uncertainty in the House

00:17:54.440 --> 00:17:56.000
that we have never had before at this point in

00:17:56.000 --> 00:17:58.619
the cycle. This redistricting push is clearly

00:17:58.619 --> 00:18:01.519
making a lot of members nervous, especially Republicans

00:18:01.519 --> 00:18:03.619
in blue states, right? Right. They seem caught

00:18:03.619 --> 00:18:05.900
between a rock and a hard place. They absolutely

00:18:05.900 --> 00:18:08.690
are. Imagine their dilemma. They can go talk

00:18:08.690 --> 00:18:11.390
to Speaker Mike Johnson, point out that if these

00:18:11.390 --> 00:18:14.029
aggressive redistricting plans move forward in

00:18:14.029 --> 00:18:16.910
their states, they and maybe several colleagues

00:18:16.910 --> 00:18:19.690
will probably lose their seats, which could mean

00:18:19.690 --> 00:18:22.609
zero net gain for the Republican Party overall,

00:18:23.069 --> 00:18:25.490
while also really angering independent voters

00:18:25.490 --> 00:18:28.710
who just don't like the idea of midterm redistricting

00:18:28.710 --> 00:18:31.529
at all. Which states are we talking about primarily?

00:18:32.100 --> 00:18:34.859
Axios highlights incumbents in California, Texas,

00:18:35.099 --> 00:18:37.380
Ohio, and Missouri as being right on the front

00:18:37.380 --> 00:18:40.319
lines. Democrats might also target seats in New

00:18:40.319 --> 00:18:42.099
Jersey and Illinois, though that could be tougher.

00:18:42.579 --> 00:18:44.920
New York is seeing it potentially easier, but

00:18:44.920 --> 00:18:47.180
the rules require two consecutive legislative

00:18:47.180 --> 00:18:49.339
sessions to change lines. So that would be for

00:18:49.339 --> 00:18:53.000
2028, not 2026. And Florida, you mentioned Florida

00:18:53.000 --> 00:18:54.680
earlier. Florida is a really interesting case.

00:18:54.700 --> 00:18:57.460
It's already heavily gerrymandered. Republicans

00:18:57.460 --> 00:19:00.299
hold 20 out of 28 House seats. That's 71 percent,

00:19:00.359 --> 00:19:02.279
even though Trump only won 56 percent of the

00:19:02.279 --> 00:19:04.660
vote there in 2024. So not much room left to

00:19:04.660 --> 00:19:08.190
squeeze. You'd think, but it's still. Conceivable

00:19:08.190 --> 00:19:10.470
that Republicans could go for the goal and try

00:19:10.470 --> 00:19:13.069
to wipe out a few of the remaining eight Democrats?

00:19:13.670 --> 00:19:16.630
Governor DeSantis apparently hasn't made a decision

00:19:16.630 --> 00:19:19.849
on this yet. So facing this threat, what can

00:19:19.849 --> 00:19:22.670
these Republicans actually do? Our sources mention

00:19:22.670 --> 00:19:25.789
a possible legislative fix and something about

00:19:25.789 --> 00:19:28.069
who might support it. This raises that important

00:19:28.069 --> 00:19:30.869
question. What are their options? Well, the sources

00:19:30.869 --> 00:19:33.029
point to a bill from Representative Kevin Kegley

00:19:33.029 --> 00:19:35.849
is a Republican from California. It would ban

00:19:35.849 --> 00:19:38.950
mid decade redistricting nationwide. OK, a federal

00:19:38.950 --> 00:19:41.509
ban. Right. And the really interesting twist

00:19:41.509 --> 00:19:44.369
is the potential coalition behind it. The thinking

00:19:44.369 --> 00:19:46.769
is most likely all the Democrats will support

00:19:46.769 --> 00:19:50.289
it naturally, but also crucially, those Republicans

00:19:50.289 --> 00:19:52.490
about to lose their seats because of state level

00:19:52.490 --> 00:19:54.349
gerrymandering. So it could actually pass the

00:19:54.349 --> 00:19:56.470
House. It suggests a possible majority. Yeah.

00:19:56.890 --> 00:19:58.990
Which puts those blue state Republicans in a

00:19:58.990 --> 00:20:01.710
terrible bind, doesn't it? Do they support Kylie's

00:20:01.710 --> 00:20:03.910
bill and get primaries back home for crossing

00:20:03.910 --> 00:20:06.450
the party line on redistricting? Or do they oppose

00:20:06.450 --> 00:20:08.289
the bill and have your district be redrawn so

00:20:08.289 --> 00:20:11.549
you can't possibly win it? Tough choice. OK.

00:20:11.609 --> 00:20:13.509
And finally, there's this really provocative

00:20:13.509 --> 00:20:16.349
strategy outlined by two Democratic strategists,

00:20:16.569 --> 00:20:18.549
Arkady Gurney and Sarah Knight. They call it

00:20:18.549 --> 00:20:23.529
Project 2026. And it's rooted in Cold War thinking.

00:20:24.139 --> 00:20:27.140
Mutually Assured Destruction, M .A .D. What exactly

00:20:27.140 --> 00:20:29.119
does that mean in this context? It sounds pretty

00:20:29.119 --> 00:20:31.519
aggressive. It is aggressive and the concept

00:20:31.519 --> 00:20:33.660
as laid out has two main parts. The first part

00:20:33.660 --> 00:20:36.480
is called counter force. This is basically Democrats

00:20:36.480 --> 00:20:38.900
redistricting their states as much as they possibly

00:20:38.900 --> 00:20:42.569
can aiming to Match or exceed the number of House

00:20:42.569 --> 00:20:44.529
seats Republicans would flip through their own

00:20:44.529 --> 00:20:47.250
gerrymandering? It's described as a pretty straightforward,

00:20:47.509 --> 00:20:49.269
kind -for -kind battle. Your House seats for

00:20:49.269 --> 00:20:51.470
my House seats. Tip for tat. Okay, that sounds

00:20:51.470 --> 00:20:53.569
like typical hardball politics. What's the second

00:20:53.569 --> 00:20:57.150
part? Ah, the second part. Counter value. This

00:20:57.150 --> 00:20:59.210
is where it gets really interesting and much

00:20:59.210 --> 00:21:02.309
more aggressive. This part would, as the sources

00:21:02.309 --> 00:21:06.210
say, go way beyond that if invoked. It involves

00:21:06.210 --> 00:21:08.890
using the blue state's much greater economic

00:21:08.890 --> 00:21:11.630
power to inflict actual tangible pain on the

00:21:11.630 --> 00:21:14.549
red states. Economic power. How so? Well, the

00:21:14.549 --> 00:21:18.069
key premise is the economic disparity. The 15

00:21:18.069 --> 00:21:20.470
states where Democrats have the trifecta governor,

00:21:20.789 --> 00:21:24.359
state house, state senate are collectively, economically

00:21:24.359 --> 00:21:27.559
much stronger than the 23 states where Republicans

00:21:27.559 --> 00:21:30.279
have the trifecta. OK, so leverage that economic

00:21:30.279 --> 00:21:32.180
strength. How specifically could they do that?

00:21:32.420 --> 00:21:34.180
The sources outlined some pretty aggressive tactics,

00:21:34.220 --> 00:21:36.160
right? They do. Some really specific examples

00:21:36.160 --> 00:21:38.519
are given. Loose states could pass laws making

00:21:38.519 --> 00:21:41.099
it. more difficult for big corporations to operate

00:21:41.099 --> 00:21:43.299
in red states. For instance, they could forbid

00:21:43.299 --> 00:21:45.980
their state pension funds, which are huge investors

00:21:45.980 --> 00:21:48.980
from buying stocks, ETFs, or mutual funds that

00:21:48.980 --> 00:21:51.019
include companies headquartered in designated

00:21:51.019 --> 00:21:53.779
bad states. Bad states. Yeah, the governor would

00:21:53.779 --> 00:21:56.480
maintain a list. Think big companies headquartered

00:21:56.480 --> 00:21:59.519
in red states. AT &T, American Airlines, Exxon

00:21:59.519 --> 00:22:04.130
Mobil, Phillips 66. The goal. depress the prices

00:22:04.130 --> 00:22:07.029
of their stock. Wow. What else? State agencies

00:22:07.029 --> 00:22:09.390
in blue states could be banned from buying anything

00:22:09.390 --> 00:22:11.710
from a company on the bad state list unless there

00:22:11.710 --> 00:22:14.690
was literally no alternative. So procurement

00:22:14.690 --> 00:22:19.069
power. Exactly. So maybe no Dell computers from

00:22:19.069 --> 00:22:22.809
Round Rock, Texas. Good news for HP and Palo

00:22:22.809 --> 00:22:25.730
Alto, perhaps. No Teslas from Austin. Good news

00:22:25.730 --> 00:22:28.430
for GM and Ford in Michigan. and extend that

00:22:28.430 --> 00:22:30.910
to banning all state contracts, including services,

00:22:31.190 --> 00:22:33.349
with companies on that bad state list. Okay,

00:22:33.430 --> 00:22:35.230
that's targeting corporations. What about other

00:22:35.230 --> 00:22:37.430
tactics? Another one mentioned is poaching key

00:22:37.430 --> 00:22:39.849
personnel. States like California, Illinois,

00:22:39.869 --> 00:22:42.390
New York could offer substantial relocation bonuses

00:22:42.390 --> 00:22:44.750
for doctors, nurses, teachers, and other valued

00:22:44.750 --> 00:22:47.250
professionals to move to their states, specifically

00:22:47.250 --> 00:22:49.569
if they settle in areas that are currently underserved

00:22:49.569 --> 00:22:51.589
in those blue states. So lure away essential

00:22:51.589 --> 00:22:54.309
workers. Right. The governor could even appoint

00:22:54.309 --> 00:22:57.259
a chief poaching officer. to coordinate it, set

00:22:57.259 --> 00:23:00.019
up a website listing vacancies. Now, the sources

00:23:00.019 --> 00:23:03.000
acknowledge the criticism that this would be

00:23:03.000 --> 00:23:04.980
hurting the poor patients and students in Texas,

00:23:05.059 --> 00:23:07.319
for example. But the stated justification would

00:23:07.319 --> 00:23:09.700
be about improved services for the poor people

00:23:09.700 --> 00:23:13.869
in California. Any other examples targeting specific

00:23:13.869 --> 00:23:16.470
industries? Yes, for instance, Texas produces

00:23:16.470 --> 00:23:19.250
a lot of oil and gas so things like higher taxes

00:23:19.250 --> 00:23:22.549
on gas guzzling cars bigger subsidies for electric

00:23:22.549 --> 00:23:25.250
ones those come to mind here and Finally the

00:23:25.250 --> 00:23:27.390
idea of hiring creative professionals in blue

00:23:27.390 --> 00:23:29.950
state specifically to think up ways to use their

00:23:29.950 --> 00:23:32.710
economic buying and market power to actively

00:23:32.710 --> 00:23:36.049
treat bad states Basically inflict maximum pain

00:23:36.049 --> 00:23:38.670
at the lowest cost to their own state. So if

00:23:38.670 --> 00:23:40.970
this counter value thing were actually deployed

00:23:41.599 --> 00:23:44.079
It's not just economic warfare, is it? The sources

00:23:44.079 --> 00:23:46.160
suggest it's almost a redefinition of federalism,

00:23:46.460 --> 00:23:48.119
pitting states against each other like Cold War

00:23:48.119 --> 00:23:51.240
adversaries. Is this kind of state on state economic

00:23:51.240 --> 00:23:54.380
fight truly unprecedented? Connecting this to

00:23:54.380 --> 00:23:56.299
the bigger picture, the sources say that while

00:23:56.299 --> 00:23:59.680
it is unprecedented for the states to act this

00:23:59.680 --> 00:24:02.279
way towards each other, it actually parallels

00:24:02.279 --> 00:24:04.640
how the Trump administration is seen as using

00:24:04.640 --> 00:24:07.579
every bit of power it has to force law firms,

00:24:07.900 --> 00:24:10.619
media companies, universities, nonprofits and

00:24:10.619 --> 00:24:13.480
more to bend to its will. So the states using

00:24:13.480 --> 00:24:16.569
the same playbook back. Kind of. The idea is

00:24:16.569 --> 00:24:19.309
that the states, maybe a compact among those

00:24:19.309 --> 00:24:21.930
15 blue trifecta states, could be a countervailing

00:24:21.930 --> 00:24:25.509
force, a credible threat, actually using federalism

00:24:25.509 --> 00:24:27.789
to pit the massive economies of the blue states

00:24:27.789 --> 00:24:30.569
against the often largely agricultural economies

00:24:30.569 --> 00:24:33.049
of the red states. That could be a game changer

00:24:33.049 --> 00:24:35.029
if done right. Well, we have certainly covered

00:24:35.029 --> 00:24:38.400
a lot of ground in this deep dive. Wow. the high

00:24:38.400 --> 00:24:40.480
stakes of international diplomacy and that intricate

00:24:40.480 --> 00:24:42.940
dance of domestic politics, right down to these

00:24:42.940 --> 00:24:45.039
really unprecedented strategies being floated

00:24:45.039 --> 00:24:47.740
for our electoral map. It's clear that power

00:24:47.740 --> 00:24:50.079
influenced the simple pursuit of political gain.

00:24:50.599 --> 00:24:52.319
It's all shaping our world in really profound

00:24:52.319 --> 00:24:55.390
ways, both here at home and abroad. Indeed. The

00:24:55.390 --> 00:24:57.869
sources we've dug into today really highlight

00:24:57.869 --> 00:25:00.410
just how much is in play, doesn't it? From those

00:25:00.410 --> 00:25:02.650
individual legal fights right up to the basic

00:25:02.650 --> 00:25:04.809
structure of our election system and even the

00:25:04.809 --> 00:25:07.769
balance of global power. It really encourages

00:25:07.769 --> 00:25:10.269
you, I think, to think critically about the implications

00:25:10.269 --> 00:25:13.430
of every single move on this very complex political

00:25:13.430 --> 00:25:15.990
chessboard. So as you go about your week, maybe

00:25:15.990 --> 00:25:18.730
consider this. How might these strategies, we've

00:25:18.730 --> 00:25:20.450
talked about whether it's a kind of real estate

00:25:20.450 --> 00:25:24.089
deal for Ukraine or this mutually assured destruction

00:25:24.089 --> 00:25:27.250
plan between states, how might they actually

00:25:27.250 --> 00:25:29.750
reshape the landscape of power in the years ahead?

00:25:30.410 --> 00:25:32.190
Was maybe one area you'll be watching a bit more

00:25:32.190 --> 00:25:34.769
closely now with these insights in mind. And

00:25:34.769 --> 00:25:37.269
remember, staying informed isn't just about knowing

00:25:37.269 --> 00:25:39.750
the facts. It's about understanding the motivations,

00:25:40.210 --> 00:25:42.890
seeing the historical echoes, grasping the potential

00:25:42.890 --> 00:25:45.250
ripple effects. We hope this deep dive has given

00:25:45.250 --> 00:25:47.589
you a valuable shortcut to that kind of understanding.

00:25:47.990 --> 00:25:50.309
Until next time, keep digging, keep questioning,

00:25:50.829 --> 00:25:51.509
and keep exploring.
