WEBVTT 00:00:00.000 --> 00:00:03.640 Welcome to the Deep Dive. We take stacks of information, 00:00:04.040 --> 00:00:06.980 cut through the noise, and we'll get you straight 00:00:06.980 --> 00:00:09.359 to the insights that matter. And today, we've 00:00:09.359 --> 00:00:11.400 got a really fascinating collection of reports. 00:00:11.880 --> 00:00:14.519 They pull back the curtain on the intersection 00:00:14.519 --> 00:00:17.420 of politics, power, and information here in the 00:00:17.420 --> 00:00:20.100 US. Yeah, quite a mix. Our mission today is to 00:00:20.100 --> 00:00:23.179 unpack some complex, intertwined stories. Exactly. 00:00:23.600 --> 00:00:26.579 We're looking at the Epstein case. It's surprisingly 00:00:26.579 --> 00:00:28.780 linked to QAnon. Still going strong, apparently. 00:00:28.940 --> 00:00:30.679 Right. And then there are the internal battles 00:00:30.679 --> 00:00:33.899 within both parties, challenges to economic data 00:00:33.899 --> 00:00:36.399 integrity, public institutions. It's a lot. We'll 00:00:36.399 --> 00:00:38.679 dig into these threads, pull out the key takeaways, 00:00:38.859 --> 00:00:40.799 and help you understand what might be happening 00:00:40.799 --> 00:00:42.960 behind the headlines. So the big question seems 00:00:42.960 --> 00:00:45.899 to be, how do things like a firing at the Bureau 00:00:45.899 --> 00:00:48.560 of Labor Statistics? Or a fight in the Texas 00:00:48.560 --> 00:00:51.060 legislature? Or the Epstein files fall out? Yeah. 00:00:51.280 --> 00:00:53.399 How do they all connect? It points to this broader 00:00:53.399 --> 00:00:56.020 struggle over information, right? Who controls 00:00:56.020 --> 00:00:58.399 the narrative? Let's unpack that. Starting with 00:00:58.399 --> 00:01:01.259 Epstein seems unavoidable. Yeah, especially its 00:01:01.259 --> 00:01:03.799 relevance for someone like Donald Trump. Ezra 00:01:03.799 --> 00:01:06.060 Klein's interview with Will Summer really nails 00:01:06.060 --> 00:01:09.599 it. The short answer is QAnon. OK, so to get 00:01:09.599 --> 00:01:11.840 this, we need to understand the QAnon worldview, 00:01:12.079 --> 00:01:15.200 right? Yeah. What's their core belief about figures 00:01:15.200 --> 00:01:17.900 like Epstein? Well, fundamentally, it's that 00:01:17.900 --> 00:01:20.219 corrupt, pedophilic elites control everything. 00:01:20.430 --> 00:01:23.650 Think back to Pizzagate, that kind of wild baseless 00:01:23.650 --> 00:01:27.150 theory. Right. QAnon believers have this almost 00:01:27.150 --> 00:01:30.090 religious intensity about Epstein being central 00:01:30.090 --> 00:01:32.430 to that cabal. And Trump's role in this worldview. 00:01:32.849 --> 00:01:35.109 For them, almost every politician is corrupt 00:01:35.109 --> 00:01:38.090 except Trump. He's seen as, you know, uncorrupted, 00:01:38.170 --> 00:01:40.349 maybe even set by God, some believe. To train 00:01:40.349 --> 00:01:42.790 the swamp. Exactly. To clean out the swamp and 00:01:42.790 --> 00:01:45.250 expose this massive conspiracy. They attribute 00:01:45.250 --> 00:01:48.609 everything. Job losses, cancer, high rent, wars. 00:01:48.920 --> 00:01:51.739 to these elites. Some even believe truly extreme 00:01:51.739 --> 00:01:54.180 things like ritual abuse. Yeah, some go that 00:01:54.180 --> 00:01:56.959 far. Ritual child murder for blood. Red shoes 00:01:56.959 --> 00:01:59.459 is an insider sign. It's pretty dark. And the 00:01:59.459 --> 00:02:02.019 core idea is that arresting just a few key people 00:02:02.019 --> 00:02:03.939 would fix everything. Which leads to the storm 00:02:03.939 --> 00:02:08.240 idea. Precisely. The storm was their belief that 00:02:08.240 --> 00:02:11.379 Trump would order mass arrests, take out these 00:02:11.379 --> 00:02:14.419 elites in Hollywood, banking the Democratic Party. 00:02:14.569 --> 00:02:16.789 And people genuinely believe this was imminent, 00:02:16.990 --> 00:02:19.430 like Ashley Babbitt on January 6th. Tragically, 00:02:19.610 --> 00:02:22.349 yes. She believed the storm was here. It started 00:02:22.349 --> 00:02:25.330 on like obscure message boards, then spread to 00:02:25.330 --> 00:02:28.250 social media and then became almost mainstream. 00:02:28.750 --> 00:02:31.169 Millions bought into it. So from Trump's perspective, 00:02:31.229 --> 00:02:33.789 how did he handle this? It's a powerful group 00:02:33.789 --> 00:02:36.530 of believers. Well, the analysis suggests he 00:02:36.530 --> 00:02:38.889 didn't actually believe the crazy story himself. 00:02:39.229 --> 00:02:41.909 But he saw that millions of his supporters did. 00:02:42.310 --> 00:02:44.870 They bought into it hook, line and sinker. So 00:02:44.870 --> 00:02:47.250 he played along. He tantalized them with promises 00:02:47.250 --> 00:02:49.310 during the campaign. The thinking seems to have 00:02:49.310 --> 00:02:51.610 been, you know, get elected then forget the whole 00:02:51.610 --> 00:02:54.069 thing. And initially his supporters were thrilled 00:02:54.069 --> 00:02:56.330 when he appointed people like Cash Patel or Dan 00:02:56.330 --> 00:02:58.349 Bongino. Oh, yeah, they were delirious with joy. 00:02:58.409 --> 00:03:01.030 They saw them as fellow travelers, major conspiracy 00:03:01.030 --> 00:03:03.909 theorists. They thought finally someone in power 00:03:03.909 --> 00:03:06.189 was going to spill the beans. But then Epstein 00:03:06.189 --> 00:03:08.590 gets arrested. That must have seemed like validation 00:03:08.590 --> 00:03:12.810 at first. Absolutely. QAnon naturally assumed, 00:03:13.129 --> 00:03:15.639 OK, this is it. Trump's on the right trail. So 00:03:15.639 --> 00:03:18.659 what changed? The big shock was when Trump and 00:03:18.659 --> 00:03:21.659 his lawyer, Pam Bondi, basically said, hold on, 00:03:22.060 --> 00:03:24.360 there's no list, no cabal, nobody's getting arrested, 00:03:24.560 --> 00:03:28.319 please forget it. Wow, that must have been jarring. 00:03:28.539 --> 00:03:30.860 Jarring is an understatement. For them, it meant 00:03:30.860 --> 00:03:34.219 their entire mythology was a fable. One source 00:03:34.219 --> 00:03:36.539 compared it to the pope announcing Jesus never 00:03:36.539 --> 00:03:39.379 existed. It shook them to their very foundations. 00:03:39.740 --> 00:03:42.439 So how has that fallout settled? Are they just 00:03:42.439 --> 00:03:46.259 moving on? Not at all. QAnon and a lot of MAGA 00:03:46.259 --> 00:03:49.620 people have no intention whatsoever of just letting 00:03:49.620 --> 00:03:52.400 this drop. They feel Trump switched teams, that 00:03:52.400 --> 00:03:54.620 he's hiding it. So the perceived stalling just 00:03:54.620 --> 00:03:57.020 makes it worse for them. Exactly. It fuels the 00:03:57.020 --> 00:03:59.479 suspicion. This story isn't fading. Which brings 00:03:59.479 --> 00:04:01.340 us to Barry Levine's piece in the New York Times. 00:04:01.439 --> 00:04:03.780 He's covered Epstein for years, wrote a book, 00:04:04.039 --> 00:04:06.599 and he has nine big questions. Yeah, and they 00:04:06.599 --> 00:04:08.900 are fundamental questions. First, the money. 00:04:09.069 --> 00:04:11.550 Where did Epstein get it? Yeah. A billion dollars 00:04:11.550 --> 00:04:14.069 wired to his account. With no obvious source, 00:04:14.090 --> 00:04:17.430 like a start -up or CEO role. Right. Who sent 00:04:17.430 --> 00:04:20.170 it? Why? That seems like something the Fed should 00:04:20.170 --> 00:04:21.709 be able to figure out, doesn't it? You'd think 00:04:21.709 --> 00:04:25.110 so. Then there's the spy angle. Yes. The Acosta 00:04:25.110 --> 00:04:27.870 quote is pretty damning. Rene Acosta, who later 00:04:27.870 --> 00:04:30.410 became Trump's labor secretary, said he was told 00:04:30.410 --> 00:04:32.449 Epstein belonged to intelligence and I should 00:04:32.449 --> 00:04:35.089 leave him alone. Who told him that? And was the 00:04:35.089 --> 00:04:38.629 cabinet job related? Big questions. Huge. And 00:04:38.629 --> 00:04:42.310 then, Trump's own potential involvement. Pam 00:04:42.310 --> 00:04:44.310 Bondi allegedly told him he was in the Epstein 00:04:44.310 --> 00:04:47.250 files. Reports of FBI agents removing documents 00:04:47.250 --> 00:04:49.649 mentioning him. How much is true? We don't know. 00:04:49.769 --> 00:04:52.689 And Bill Clinton. 21 phone numbers in Epstein's 00:04:52.689 --> 00:04:55.089 little black book. What was that relationship 00:04:55.089 --> 00:04:57.709 really? Beyond Prince Andrew, who else was involved? 00:04:57.829 --> 00:05:00.589 Who were the clients on the island? Any frequent 00:05:00.589 --> 00:05:03.209 flyers? And who helped Epstein? Besides Ghislaine 00:05:03.209 --> 00:05:05.600 Maxwell. There's the mysterious death of Jean 00:05:05.600 --> 00:05:09.339 -Luc Brunel, the French modeling scout, in a 00:05:09.339 --> 00:05:11.480 Paris prison. What about the contents of the 00:05:11.480 --> 00:05:14.920 safe rated by the FBI? A three -page index listing. 00:05:15.439 --> 00:05:19.600 40 computers, 26 hard disks, 70 CDs, recording 00:05:19.600 --> 00:05:22.980 devices, thousands of compact disks. People want 00:05:22.980 --> 00:05:25.139 that list made public. And the videos? Why can't 00:05:25.139 --> 00:05:27.660 they be released? Levine suggests blurring tech 00:05:27.660 --> 00:05:30.339 exists. Right, like Google Maps uses. And finally, 00:05:30.480 --> 00:05:32.860 the autopsy report. The full report by Kristin 00:05:32.860 --> 00:05:36.339 Roman. DNA tests on the sheet. Did other prisoners 00:05:36.339 --> 00:05:39.259 hear anything? These are specific, pointed questions. 00:05:39.300 --> 00:05:41.480 They are. And the feeling is, much of the country 00:05:41.480 --> 00:05:43.740 wants to know, but the response is stonewalling. 00:05:43.920 --> 00:05:46.540 which, as Levine notes, didn't work out so well 00:05:46.540 --> 00:05:49.160 for Nixon. It just keeps the story alive. So 00:05:49.160 --> 00:05:52.459 this isn't going away for potential 2028 Republican 00:05:52.459 --> 00:05:55.019 candidates either. It could linger into the 27 00:05:55.019 --> 00:05:57.500 primary. Seems very likely. The more stonewalling, 00:05:57.519 --> 00:05:59.779 the longer it lasts. And it creates a real dilemma 00:05:59.779 --> 00:06:02.360 for them. Align with Trump? Nothing to see here. 00:06:02.560 --> 00:06:05.139 Or align with the base demanding answers. Exactly. 00:06:05.379 --> 00:06:07.860 And the assumption is, if you're demanding transparency, 00:06:08.300 --> 00:06:10.500 you're probably not in the files yourself. But 00:06:10.500 --> 00:06:13.120 taking a stance now is risky, isn't it? What 00:06:13.120 --> 00:06:16.220 if new information surfaces? Totally. It's playing 00:06:16.220 --> 00:06:18.879 with fire. Imagine if videos came out showing, 00:06:18.879 --> 00:06:22.459 you know, a dozen congressional Republicans committing 00:06:22.459 --> 00:06:26.000 statutory rape, live and in color. Any stance 00:06:26.000 --> 00:06:28.500 taken now could look terrible. High stakes indeed. 00:06:28.740 --> 00:06:31.079 So who's aligning where? among the potential 00:06:31.079 --> 00:06:33.600 candidates. Well, demanding release, siding with 00:06:33.600 --> 00:06:35.800 the base. You've got Senators Ted Cruz, Josh 00:06:35.800 --> 00:06:38.339 Hawley, Rand Paul. They're staying visible, taking 00:06:38.339 --> 00:06:40.959 positions. Cruz with his media presence, Hawley 00:06:40.959 --> 00:06:43.939 on issues like stock trading bans, Paul doing 00:06:43.939 --> 00:06:46.339 early state visits. Right. And then on the other 00:06:46.339 --> 00:06:48.660 side, with Trump's nothing to see here line, 00:06:49.279 --> 00:06:52.620 you have J .D. Vance, Marco Rubio, Kristi Noem. 00:06:52.680 --> 00:06:54.540 And some are trying to stay out of it. For now, 00:06:54.720 --> 00:06:56.779 yeah. Governors like Brian Kemp, Glenn Youngkin, 00:06:56.980 --> 00:06:58.800 Sarah Huckabee Sanders seem to be waiting it 00:06:58.800 --> 00:07:00.850 out. What about the actual voters? Where did 00:07:00.850 --> 00:07:03.769 they stand? Polls show almost 80 percent of Trump 00:07:03.769 --> 00:07:05.970 voters want to get to the bottom of this. And 00:07:05.970 --> 00:07:08.069 over half 52 percent think the government is 00:07:08.069 --> 00:07:11.149 covering things up. Interesting. Even non -politicians 00:07:11.149 --> 00:07:13.769 who support Trump are pushing back on this. Yeah, 00:07:13.769 --> 00:07:15.850 figures like Mike Cernovich, Mike Lindell, Joe 00:07:15.850 --> 00:07:18.670 Rogan, Andrew Schultz, Steve Bannon. They're 00:07:18.670 --> 00:07:20.490 attacking Trump for not releasing everything. 00:07:20.689 --> 00:07:23.449 They're actually siding with the base against 00:07:23.449 --> 00:07:26.829 Trump on this one issue. So while that struggle 00:07:26.829 --> 00:07:29.959 over inflation plays out. There's the more traditional 00:07:29.959 --> 00:07:33.560 power struggle. Campaign money. Right. And Democrats 00:07:33.560 --> 00:07:35.939 aren't really agonizing over Epstein. They're 00:07:35.939 --> 00:07:38.699 focused on more conventional campaign stuff. 00:07:38.860 --> 00:07:40.839 Raising money, building infrastructure, leaving 00:07:40.839 --> 00:07:43.339 those FEC paper trails. It's all about being 00:07:43.339 --> 00:07:46.699 a team player for 2026, helping win back the 00:07:46.699 --> 00:07:49.500 House and Senate. That means fundraising, spending, 00:07:49.860 --> 00:07:52.240 campaigning in key places. Pete Buttigieg is 00:07:52.240 --> 00:07:54.600 leading the pack so far. Yeah, $1 .6 million 00:07:54.600 --> 00:07:57.600 bank this year, paying staff. Governors are more 00:07:57.600 --> 00:08:00.100 in the hundreds of thousands range, with super 00:08:00.100 --> 00:08:02.540 PACs handling bigger costs like travel and polling. 00:08:02.740 --> 00:08:05.540 And a lot of that early money is about raising 00:08:05.540 --> 00:08:08.199 more money, buying donor lists. Exactly. People 00:08:08.199 --> 00:08:10.040 like Beshear in Kentucky and Whitmer in Michigan, 00:08:10.240 --> 00:08:12.620 they're investing in lists. Their emails might 00:08:12.620 --> 00:08:15.120 ask you to donate to the DNC or DSCC, but they 00:08:15.120 --> 00:08:17.519 also boost their own profile. And Newsom is using 00:08:17.519 --> 00:08:19.860 his big donor network to help others building 00:08:19.860 --> 00:08:22.759 Goodwill. Precisely. They've all got super PACs, 00:08:22.899 --> 00:08:24.740 digital operations ramping up, some are running 00:08:24.740 --> 00:08:27.319 national ads if they're less known. Like Beshear 00:08:27.319 --> 00:08:29.639 campaigning down in South Carolina already. Right. 00:08:29.699 --> 00:08:32.200 And even governors up for re -election in 26, 00:08:32.360 --> 00:08:34.919 like Shapiro and PA or Moore and MD, they focus 00:08:34.919 --> 00:08:37.500 on that. But raising money nationally for their 00:08:37.500 --> 00:08:40.320 own race lets them meet key players everywhere. 00:08:40.519 --> 00:08:43.220 OK, but here's the kicker. While the race is 00:08:43.220 --> 00:08:46.940 on, Republicans are financially Way ahead. Yeah, 00:08:47.179 --> 00:08:50.370 the disparity is stark. Maggio Inc, the main 00:08:50.370 --> 00:08:54.830 GOP super PAC, pulled in $177 million in the 00:08:54.830 --> 00:08:57.750 first half of 2025. A lot from crypto sources 00:08:57.750 --> 00:08:59.990 rewarded with things like a strategic Bitcoin 00:08:59.990 --> 00:09:02.649 reserve. Sounds interesting. Let's just say it 00:09:02.649 --> 00:09:05.210 contrasts sharply with the main Democratic super 00:09:05.210 --> 00:09:07.370 PAC, Future Forward. Right. They have about $2 00:09:07.370 --> 00:09:09.809 ,800 on hand and are apparently still paying 00:09:09.809 --> 00:09:12.450 back money from crypto execs now in prison. Ouch. 00:09:12.649 --> 00:09:14.870 And it's bad down ballot, too. Yep. The House 00:09:14.870 --> 00:09:17.549 GOP fund has $11 million more than the Dems. 00:09:17.710 --> 00:09:20.690 The Senate GOP fund has 16 million dollars more, 00:09:20.970 --> 00:09:23.029 plus the Democrats have 21 million dollars in 00:09:23.029 --> 00:09:26.269 debt left over from 2024. So why the big gap? 00:09:26.370 --> 00:09:28.789 What's the underlying dynamic? Fundamentally, 00:09:28.970 --> 00:09:31.330 rich people and corporations generally get a 00:09:31.330 --> 00:09:33.809 better deal from Republicans. That's a strong 00:09:33.809 --> 00:09:36.309 incentive. While Democrats rely more on small 00:09:36.309 --> 00:09:38.610 donors who aren't focused on midterms yet. Right. 00:09:38.970 --> 00:09:40.929 Small donors don't usually pay much attention 00:09:40.929 --> 00:09:44.059 to midterms, especially this far out. Plus, the 00:09:44.059 --> 00:09:46.299 party in power can always offer valuable favors 00:09:46.299 --> 00:09:48.899 to potential donors. And donors usually focus 00:09:48.899 --> 00:09:52.720 on the next election at most. Shifting globally 00:09:52.720 --> 00:09:55.259 trade deals. Trump's had some wins with the UK, 00:09:55.539 --> 00:09:59.360 Japan, EU, but China remains the elusive one. 00:09:59.460 --> 00:10:01.919 And they won't just roll over and beg like the 00:10:01.919 --> 00:10:05.039 EU perhaps did. No, Xi Jinping has significant 00:10:05.039 --> 00:10:07.419 advantages. He doesn't face elections, so he 00:10:07.419 --> 00:10:09.539 can impose more pain on his people if needed. 00:10:09.759 --> 00:10:12.679 And strategic resources. Rare earths. Exactly. 00:10:12.809 --> 00:10:15.490 China has those rare earth elements America needs. 00:10:16.009 --> 00:10:18.350 Xi can control sales. Big consequences for U 00:10:18.350 --> 00:10:20.789 .S. companies. Plus, China makes tons of parts 00:10:20.789 --> 00:10:23.710 for jets, phones. Taxing those exports is easy 00:10:23.710 --> 00:10:25.769 for him. And the trade balance. U .S. imports 00:10:25.769 --> 00:10:27.870 lots of agricultural goods from Trump's base. 00:10:28.309 --> 00:10:31.389 Correct. China exports way more to the U .S. 00:10:31.549 --> 00:10:35.110 450 BME versus 150 BME. U .S. imports include 00:10:35.110 --> 00:10:38.649 a lot of farm products. She could sign long -term 00:10:38.649 --> 00:10:41.269 contracts for Brazilian soybeans, for instance, 00:10:41.690 --> 00:10:44.370 that would very much upset Trump's base. He also 00:10:44.370 --> 00:10:46.730 doesn't have to convince 27 other leaders, unlike 00:10:46.730 --> 00:10:49.309 the EU chief. Right. That gives him far more 00:10:49.309 --> 00:10:51.789 power. The idea of Trump doing a one -on -one 00:10:51.789 --> 00:10:54.429 visit to show off his deal -making skills, sources 00:10:54.429 --> 00:10:57.850 say that will never work. Why not? Because frankly, 00:10:58.009 --> 00:11:00.389 the analysis suggests Trump doesn't understand 00:11:00.389 --> 00:11:03.529 any of the details of trade. She, however, is 00:11:03.529 --> 00:11:05.840 prepped. Talks to experts for hours and won't 00:11:05.840 --> 00:11:08.200 just agree on the spot to some crazy proposal. 00:11:08.360 --> 00:11:11.240 So if Trump imposes high tariffs, G likely blocks 00:11:11.240 --> 00:11:14.299 exports of key materials and parts. That could 00:11:14.299 --> 00:11:16.360 shut down U .S. companies, maybe even trigger 00:11:16.360 --> 00:11:18.519 a recession. A deal might still happen through 00:11:18.519 --> 00:11:20.740 lower level talks, but it won't be one sided 00:11:20.740 --> 00:11:22.820 like the EU one. Unless it's one sided against 00:11:22.820 --> 00:11:24.740 the U .S.? That's a possibility some sources 00:11:24.740 --> 00:11:27.179 raise. OK, let's bring it back home. Institutional 00:11:27.179 --> 00:11:29.870 integrity. The Senate went quiet for August recess, 00:11:29.909 --> 00:11:32.750 but right before Schumer and Thune cut a deal 00:11:32.750 --> 00:11:35.509 on some nominees. Not all, though. Yeah. And 00:11:35.509 --> 00:11:38.309 one confirmation was pretty controversial. Jeanine 00:11:38.309 --> 00:11:42.549 Pirro, as U .S. attorney for D .C., former prosecutors 00:11:42.549 --> 00:11:46.490 and judges called her totally unfit. Her stated 00:11:46.490 --> 00:11:50.669 goal, prosecute Trump's enemies, raises impartiality 00:11:50.669 --> 00:11:53.169 questions. Yeah, the minority party can't block, 00:11:53.450 --> 00:11:56.070 but they can slow things down, which annoys Trump. 00:11:56.309 --> 00:11:58.860 Right. And Thune, the majority leader, thought 00:11:58.860 --> 00:12:01.399 about going nuclear, stripping that minority 00:12:01.399 --> 00:12:04.360 power. But he's been around. He knows the shoe 00:12:04.360 --> 00:12:06.399 may be on the other foot someday. A Democratic 00:12:06.399 --> 00:12:08.179 Senate could ram through their own people later. 00:12:08.500 --> 00:12:11.000 Exactly. Trump doesn't care about post -2029, 00:12:11.240 --> 00:12:14.159 but Thune, at 64, definitely does. He's playing 00:12:14.159 --> 00:12:16.940 the long game. Meanwhile, in Texas, Republicans 00:12:16.940 --> 00:12:19.679 are pushing a new redistricting map. They played 00:12:19.679 --> 00:12:22.320 it safe in 2020, protecting incumbents. Which 00:12:22.320 --> 00:12:25.360 was seen as a good decision then. But now Trump 00:12:25.360 --> 00:12:27.259 apparently demanded they be aggressive and try 00:12:27.259 --> 00:12:29.059 to win five more House seats. And they said, 00:12:29.120 --> 00:12:31.279 yes, sir, even if it was against their better 00:12:31.279 --> 00:12:33.500 judgment. Seems that way. They do this new map 00:12:33.500 --> 00:12:35.779 and the media mostly assumed, OK, GOP just picked 00:12:35.779 --> 00:12:38.899 up five seats. But not so fast. There's a flaw. 00:12:39.179 --> 00:12:41.440 Potentially a big one. Four of the five tweaked 00:12:41.440 --> 00:12:44.759 districts are now majority Latino. The assumption 00:12:44.759 --> 00:12:47.059 was based on Trump getting 55 percent of the 00:12:47.059 --> 00:12:50.500 Latino vote in 2024. But gerrymandering 101 says 00:12:50.500 --> 00:12:53.440 you need reliable voters. Exactly. And it's. 00:12:53.470 --> 00:12:56.009 Far from clear that Latinos are reliable Republicans. 00:12:56.490 --> 00:12:59.850 Even if some like Trump personally in 24, that 00:12:59.850 --> 00:13:03.190 calculation might be faulty. Because things have 00:13:03.190 --> 00:13:05.850 changed since November 2024, Latino sentiment 00:13:05.850 --> 00:13:08.730 has shifted. Significantly, it seems. Many Latinos 00:13:08.730 --> 00:13:12.110 are souring on Trump. Why? Deportations and tariffs. 00:13:12.409 --> 00:13:14.970 I see arresting people without trial doesn't 00:13:14.970 --> 00:13:17.190 build goodwill. Not exactly. And the tariffs 00:13:17.190 --> 00:13:19.250 are hitting trade with Mexico, hurting jobs, 00:13:19.350 --> 00:13:21.070 especially in South Texas. What are the polls 00:13:21.070 --> 00:13:23.789 showing now? Nationwide, Trump's approval with 00:13:23.789 --> 00:13:26.610 Latinos is around 36%. That's down 19 points 00:13:26.610 --> 00:13:29.409 from the 24 exit polls. Probably worse in Texas 00:13:29.409 --> 00:13:32.309 because of the direct impact of policies. Plus... 00:13:32.120 --> 00:13:34.039 You know, it's perceived lack of interest in 00:13:34.039 --> 00:13:36.159 helping flood victims there. So this dummymander, 00:13:36.220 --> 00:13:38.220 as some are calling it, could backfire badly. 00:13:38.539 --> 00:13:40.960 It absolutely could. These districts aren't guaranteed 00:13:40.960 --> 00:13:44.279 wins. Republicans could lose them all. If Dems 00:13:44.279 --> 00:13:47.340 run local Latinos and hammer on deportations 00:13:47.340 --> 00:13:50.649 and tariffs, forget gaining seats. Could it be 00:13:50.649 --> 00:13:54.129 even worse, like a blue wave making safe GOP 00:13:54.129 --> 00:13:57.190 seats vulnerable? That's the risk. Basing everything 00:13:57.190 --> 00:14:00.149 on only one election is dangerous. And this is 00:14:00.149 --> 00:14:04.049 causing pushback even within the Texas GOP from 00:14:04.049 --> 00:14:05.509 Latino Republicans. Yeah, they're hearing it 00:14:05.509 --> 00:14:07.549 from constituents and they're starting to do 00:14:07.549 --> 00:14:10.350 the unthinkable, advocating for some undocumented 00:14:10.350 --> 00:14:13.389 immigrants like DREAMers. Like Rep Salazar in 00:14:13.389 --> 00:14:16.830 Florida, supporting a path to citizenship, that's 00:14:16.830 --> 00:14:19.169 heresy to the Trump line. It is. She made a point 00:14:19.169 --> 00:14:21.190 about past shameful treatment of immigrants. 00:14:21.750 --> 00:14:23.509 Although it's noted she did vote for the bill, 00:14:23.730 --> 00:14:28.110 giving ICC $75 billion for roundups. So it's 00:14:28.110 --> 00:14:30.529 complicated. And the Democrats' response? Fleeing 00:14:30.529 --> 00:14:32.690 the state. Yep. The quorum break stunt. They've 00:14:32.690 --> 00:14:34.970 decamped to Illinois. Guests of Governor Pritzker. 00:14:35.330 --> 00:14:37.289 Texas police can't arrest them there. Pritzker 00:14:37.289 --> 00:14:39.649 will shred extradition requests. They can't stay 00:14:39.649 --> 00:14:41.879 there forever, obviously. Probably not till November 00:14:41.879 --> 00:14:45.159 2026. But the stunt gets national attention on 00:14:45.159 --> 00:14:47.679 the redistricting and maybe pushes other states 00:14:47.679 --> 00:14:50.019 like California or New York towards countermeasures. 00:14:50.279 --> 00:14:52.179 Can Governor Abbott just replace them, though? 00:14:52.399 --> 00:14:55.240 No, not unilaterally. Expulsion needs a two -thirds 00:14:55.240 --> 00:14:57.840 vote in the House 100 votes. That's extremely 00:14:57.840 --> 00:15:00.679 rare. Like only happened once since 1927 for 00:15:00.679 --> 00:15:03.019 misconduct. Exactly. And quorum breaks. They 00:15:03.019 --> 00:15:06.159 have a storied tradition in Texas. 1870, 1979, 00:15:06.519 --> 00:15:09.840 2003, 2021. None of those lawmakers were expelled 00:15:09.840 --> 00:15:11.539 for it. The publicans don't have the 100 votes 00:15:11.539 --> 00:15:14.820 needed. Right. They have 88. The threshold protects 00:15:14.820 --> 00:15:17.159 against political overreach. Quorum breaks are 00:15:17.159 --> 00:15:19.899 basically minority resistance made possible by 00:15:19.899 --> 00:15:23.279 the state's own rules. OK, next up. The integrity 00:15:23.279 --> 00:15:26.440 of economic data. Friday's firing of the BLS 00:15:26.440 --> 00:15:29.200 commissioner, Erica McIntarfer, that really shook 00:15:29.200 --> 00:15:31.399 things up. It did. She was about an appointee, 00:15:31.759 --> 00:15:34.679 fired after a weak jobs report and downward revisions. 00:15:34.980 --> 00:15:36.860 Trump immediately claimed the data was rigged 00:15:36.860 --> 00:15:38.779 to make him look bad. Even without evidence, 00:15:38.919 --> 00:15:41.279 he's disputed data before, right? Inflation numbers. 00:15:41.700 --> 00:15:44.899 Repeatedly. This latest move alarmed economists 00:15:44.899 --> 00:15:48.000 across the political spectrum and federal statisticians. 00:15:48.440 --> 00:15:51.600 It amplified fears about institutional capture. 00:15:51.860 --> 00:15:55.320 And the BLS is crucial. 140 years old produces 00:15:55.320 --> 00:15:58.240 the monthly jobs report everyone watches. Markets, 00:15:58.419 --> 00:16:01.379 policies, public mood, they all rely on that 00:16:01.379 --> 00:16:04.139 data. Direct interference with the professionals 00:16:04.139 --> 00:16:07.799 who compile it is rare and potentially destabilizing. 00:16:07.929 --> 00:16:10.309 How is this data usually protected from politics? 00:16:10.769 --> 00:16:14.129 Agencies like BLS, BEA, Census Bureau operate 00:16:14.129 --> 00:16:15.960 under established protocols. They're meant to 00:16:15.960 --> 00:16:19.000 be insulated. It's career civil servants, not 00:16:19.000 --> 00:16:21.399 political appointees, who design surveys, collect 00:16:21.399 --> 00:16:24.159 data. The processes are complex, entrenched the 00:16:24.159 --> 00:16:26.279 bedrock of policy and market confidence. But 00:16:26.279 --> 00:16:28.299 there are weak points. A president can't just 00:16:28.299 --> 00:16:30.720 order a change in the inflation rate. No, but 00:16:30.720 --> 00:16:32.840 they can influence appointments, shift incentives, 00:16:33.039 --> 00:16:35.340 change funding, or just undermine trust in the 00:16:35.340 --> 00:16:37.860 results. Trump calling unemployment phony or 00:16:37.860 --> 00:16:40.320 inflation fake laid the groundwork for suspicion. 00:16:40.539 --> 00:16:42.799 So the fear now is more about subtle manipulation, 00:16:43.080 --> 00:16:46.220 putting loyalists in key spots. Exactly. That 00:16:46.220 --> 00:16:49.559 opens the door. Maybe methodology gets quietly 00:16:49.559 --> 00:16:52.120 revised to downplay people leaving the workforce. 00:16:52.840 --> 00:16:56.919 Or a GDP report is delayed due to technical review. 00:16:57.360 --> 00:17:00.320 Small moves that erode credibility quickly. And 00:17:00.320 --> 00:17:02.919 just raising the possibility of fraud is damaging. 00:17:03.100 --> 00:17:05.559 It can be enough to destabilize public faith 00:17:05.559 --> 00:17:08.400 and undermine trust, even if the numbers themselves 00:17:08.400 --> 00:17:11.029 aren't touched. Is there a check on this? Non 00:17:11.029 --> 00:17:13.630 -governmental data sources? Thankfully, yes. 00:17:14.109 --> 00:17:16.549 The U .S. has a whole ecosystem of them. The 00:17:16.549 --> 00:17:20.450 Conference Board's LEI, ADP payrolls, ISM indices, 00:17:20.950 --> 00:17:23.569 NFE, Small Business Index, University of Michigan 00:17:23.569 --> 00:17:26.109 consumer sentiment. Real estate data from CoreLogic, 00:17:26.210 --> 00:17:28.910 Zillow, Redfin, commodity prices, shipping. All 00:17:28.910 --> 00:17:31.170 of that. They serve as a vital check on government 00:17:31.170 --> 00:17:33.569 narratives, a reality check. What about the institutional 00:17:33.569 --> 00:17:35.849 safeguards? How strong are they? They exist, 00:17:36.109 --> 00:17:37.769 but their strength really depends on leadership 00:17:37.769 --> 00:17:39.910 respecting them and vigilance from outsiders, 00:17:40.609 --> 00:17:43.190 Congress, press, groups like the American Statistical 00:17:43.190 --> 00:17:45.769 Association. But sustained attacks, firings, 00:17:45.849 --> 00:17:48.089 that takes a toll regardless. Definitely. It 00:17:48.089 --> 00:17:51.250 leads to staff leaving, delays in updates, lower 00:17:51.250 --> 00:17:54.369 morale. That degrades data quality even without 00:17:54.369 --> 00:17:57.210 fabrication. And re -brilling lost confidence. 00:17:57.710 --> 00:18:00.420 Much harder. This isn't just politics. It's about 00:18:00.420 --> 00:18:02.839 governance, how we react to economic signals. 00:18:03.240 --> 00:18:06.619 Precisely. The firing sends a message. Deliver 00:18:06.619 --> 00:18:09.500 bad news. Get punished. That's a dangerous precedent. 00:18:10.180 --> 00:18:13.079 It's about soft power, eroding trust, reshaping 00:18:13.079 --> 00:18:15.480 narratives, undermining institutions. Related 00:18:15.480 --> 00:18:19.259 to institutions, a Fed governor resigned. Adriana 00:18:19.259 --> 00:18:22.539 Kukler. A lucky break for Trump. You can see 00:18:22.539 --> 00:18:24.660 it that way. Trump desperately wants lower interest 00:18:24.660 --> 00:18:27.019 rates, good for his real estate background, lowers 00:18:27.019 --> 00:18:28.980 federal debt payments. Though maybe he doesn't 00:18:28.980 --> 00:18:32.859 realize low rates fuel inflation. Possibly not. 00:18:33.000 --> 00:18:34.960 He's even talked about firing Fed Chair Powell, 00:18:35.160 --> 00:18:37.420 his own nominee, though that's legally tricky. 00:18:37.960 --> 00:18:40.460 Anyway, Kugler, a Biden appointee, resigned a 00:18:40.460 --> 00:18:42.460 little bit early, gives Trump an early appointment. 00:18:42.619 --> 00:18:44.500 And that means Republican appointees will now 00:18:44.500 --> 00:18:47.480 have a majority on the Fed board. Yes, which 00:18:47.480 --> 00:18:50.059 they didn't before. So does this mean lower rates 00:18:50.059 --> 00:18:53.059 are coming? Maybe. Depends on Powell. If he's 00:18:53.059 --> 00:18:55.019 against it, the votes aren't there. Probably. 00:18:55.460 --> 00:18:58.250 If he's for it, they will be. The Fed's mission 00:18:58.250 --> 00:19:00.950 includes keeping inflation in check, and the 00:19:00.950 --> 00:19:03.170 14 -year terms are meant to insulate them from 00:19:03.170 --> 00:19:06.789 pressure. But this president has a knack for 00:19:06.789 --> 00:19:09.529 bending people to his will. He's extraordinarily 00:19:09.529 --> 00:19:12.589 good at it, reports suggest. A majority of his 00:19:12.589 --> 00:19:15.470 people on the board makes the task much easier. 00:19:15.829 --> 00:19:17.890 Finally, the Corporation for Public Broadcasting 00:19:17.890 --> 00:19:20.809 shut down. Yeah, another move related to information 00:19:20.809 --> 00:19:23.400 control. Authoritarians always try to control 00:19:23.400 --> 00:19:25.740 the information flow. Trump's internalized this. 00:19:25.880 --> 00:19:29.559 Even suing media outlets. Seems so. For MPR and 00:19:29.559 --> 00:19:32.920 PBS via CPB, it was a different tactic. Republicans 00:19:32.920 --> 00:19:35.099 pushed through rescissions, cutting off all its 00:19:35.099 --> 00:19:37.539 funding. And CPB announced Friday it has to shut 00:19:37.539 --> 00:19:39.740 down. Mission accomplished, as one source put 00:19:39.740 --> 00:19:42.980 it. Grimly, yes. And the hardest hit. Rural areas. 00:19:43.279 --> 00:19:45.119 You know, where many Trump voters live. Because 00:19:45.119 --> 00:19:47.900 CPB funds a big chunk of their local MPR and 00:19:47.900 --> 00:19:50.220 PBS stations. Exactly. Without it, they can't 00:19:50.220 --> 00:19:52.710 make ends meet. Urban stations can fundraise 00:19:52.710 --> 00:19:54.950 from wealthy donors, maybe even use the shutdown 00:19:54.950 --> 00:19:58.049 as a rallying cry. Less true in rural areas. 00:19:58.390 --> 00:20:01.289 So the result is more reliance on Fox News for 00:20:01.289 --> 00:20:03.829 information in those areas. That appears to be 00:20:03.829 --> 00:20:06.750 the likely outcome. And Trump probably doesn't 00:20:06.750 --> 00:20:09.630 mind this so much. One last observation from 00:20:09.630 --> 00:20:13.509 the sources, George W. Bush's silence. It's noted 00:20:13.509 --> 00:20:16.660 as curious. He's alive. His opinion still matters 00:20:16.660 --> 00:20:19.039 to many Republicans. A statement that Trump's 00:20:19.039 --> 00:20:20.960 actions affront traditional GOP values could 00:20:20.960 --> 00:20:24.299 have an impact. But he's been as quiet as a mouse. 00:20:25.039 --> 00:20:27.920 OK, quite a deep dive today. What really stands 00:20:27.920 --> 00:20:29.859 out, we've seen how things that seem separate, 00:20:30.160 --> 00:20:34.140 Epstein fallout, campaign cash, Texas gerrymandering, 00:20:34.640 --> 00:20:36.910 data integrity, they're all tangled up. Yeah, 00:20:36.990 --> 00:20:38.789 they're part of this bigger story about power, 00:20:39.049 --> 00:20:41.309 information, trust, and institutions. It really 00:20:41.309 --> 00:20:43.089 reminds you that under the daily news churn, 00:20:43.450 --> 00:20:46.029 these fundamental forces are shaping how we see 00:20:46.029 --> 00:20:47.869 reality. Right. So here's something to think 00:20:47.869 --> 00:20:51.250 about. In a time when trust in official data 00:20:51.250 --> 00:20:54.089 in established stories is being challenged so 00:20:54.089 --> 00:20:57.069 much, how do we navigate that? How do you personally 00:20:57.069 --> 00:20:58.950 figure out what's true, what's important, what 00:20:58.950 --> 00:21:00.869 really matters for the future? Definitely something 00:21:00.869 --> 00:21:01.750 to mull over this week.