WEBVTT 00:00:00.000 --> 00:00:03.700 Welcome to the deep dive. So today is August 00:00:03.700 --> 00:00:08.619 1st, 2025. And it's not just any Friday. No, 00:00:08.740 --> 00:00:10.480 definitely not. It feels like a really pivotal 00:00:10.480 --> 00:00:12.980 day. We've got these major moves happening on 00:00:12.980 --> 00:00:15.179 two big fronts. Right. Trade tariffs are hitting 00:00:15.179 --> 00:00:18.219 globally. And then right here at home, this huge 00:00:18.219 --> 00:00:20.879 battle over redistricting maps is really heating 00:00:20.879 --> 00:00:24.679 up across the U .S. Exactly. So our mission really 00:00:24.679 --> 00:00:26.679 for this deep dive is to try and cut through 00:00:26.679 --> 00:00:28.920 some of that noise. Yeah. Pull up surprising 00:00:28.920 --> 00:00:32.140 stuff and help you, our listener, understand 00:00:32.140 --> 00:00:34.880 what's actually going on. What are the real world 00:00:34.880 --> 00:00:38.929 impacts of these decisions? We've dug into quite 00:00:38.929 --> 00:00:41.170 a few sources today, and they give a pretty sharp 00:00:41.170 --> 00:00:42.990 look at, you know, the mechanics behind it all, 00:00:42.990 --> 00:00:44.789 the motivations. And the potential problems, 00:00:44.869 --> 00:00:47.250 I guess. Oh, yeah, definitely the potential pitfalls. 00:00:47.429 --> 00:00:49.630 We really want you to walk away feeling like 00:00:49.630 --> 00:00:52.170 you've got a good handle on what's truly at stake 00:00:52.170 --> 00:00:54.030 here. OK, great. So let's unpack the first part 00:00:54.030 --> 00:00:57.270 then, the trade stuff. Yeah. August 1st today 00:00:57.270 --> 00:00:59.369 was meant to be the deadline, right? That was 00:00:59.369 --> 00:01:01.929 the line in the sand. Yeah. Nations needed to 00:01:01.929 --> 00:01:03.990 get their updated trade deals sorted with the 00:01:03.990 --> 00:01:06.480 administration or else. face higher tariffs, 00:01:06.760 --> 00:01:09.519 at least 15%. And did that happen? Did we see 00:01:09.519 --> 00:01:11.900 action? Oh, we did. A whole series of executive 00:01:11.900 --> 00:01:14.519 orders came out, slapping tariffs on various 00:01:14.519 --> 00:01:17.739 places, ranging from that 15 % baseline up to 00:01:17.739 --> 00:01:21.280 41%. Wow, 41%. That's substantial. It is. And 00:01:21.280 --> 00:01:23.540 what really jumps out from the analyses we read 00:01:23.540 --> 00:01:25.659 is the, well, the list of countries getting hit 00:01:25.659 --> 00:01:30.239 the hardest. OK. It's Syria, Myanmar, Laos, Iraq. 00:01:30.459 --> 00:01:33.659 and then Switzerland and Canada. Wait, Switzerland 00:01:33.659 --> 00:01:36.819 and Canada? That seems eclectic. Eclectic is 00:01:36.819 --> 00:01:39.299 a good word. One source even joked, you know, 00:01:39.400 --> 00:01:40.640 it's hard to tell where they're getting these 00:01:40.640 --> 00:01:44.739 numbers from. Maybe AI. Huh, maybe AI. It does 00:01:44.739 --> 00:01:47.099 make you wonder, is there a clear logic and economic 00:01:47.099 --> 00:01:50.099 thread connecting Syria, Switzerland, and Canada? 00:01:50.439 --> 00:01:52.700 Honestly. The sources we looked at don't really 00:01:52.700 --> 00:01:55.739 offer one. Not a clear, consistent economic reason 00:01:55.739 --> 00:01:58.200 for targeting that specific group so hard. So 00:01:58.200 --> 00:02:00.040 it might be more about sending a message. Maybe 00:02:00.040 --> 00:02:01.980 an arbitrary one. It kind of looks that way. 00:02:02.180 --> 00:02:05.040 And speaking of messages being a bit mixed, Mexico. 00:02:05.439 --> 00:02:07.659 Ah, yes, Mexico. What happened there? They were 00:02:07.659 --> 00:02:09.580 told no extensions, weren't they? That was the 00:02:09.580 --> 00:02:12.740 rhetoric. No extension unless a signed deal was 00:02:12.740 --> 00:02:15.879 physically there. But, uh, so what? They had 00:02:15.879 --> 00:02:19.680 an extension. Yep. An unexpected 90 -day reprieve. 00:02:19.840 --> 00:02:24.280 Huh. So the absolute deadline wasn't quite so 00:02:24.280 --> 00:02:26.340 absolute after all. It seems not and it gets 00:02:26.340 --> 00:02:28.740 a bit more confusing. There's also this like 00:02:28.740 --> 00:02:31.819 Universal extension for everyone for all nations 00:02:31.819 --> 00:02:35.569 until next Thursday, August 7th One last chance, 00:02:35.569 --> 00:02:38.930 apparently, to finalize deals. OK, so the real 00:02:38.930 --> 00:02:41.409 pressure point got pushed back a week. Is that 00:02:41.409 --> 00:02:43.370 the administration softening, you think, or just 00:02:43.370 --> 00:02:45.110 kicking the can down the road? That is the big 00:02:45.110 --> 00:02:47.330 question, isn't it? And adding to the confusion 00:02:47.330 --> 00:02:50.509 is this whole mess around the USMCA, the existing 00:02:50.509 --> 00:02:52.750 trade deal with Mexico and Canada. How does that 00:02:52.750 --> 00:02:55.129 fit in? Well, according to one source, figuring 00:02:55.129 --> 00:02:57.509 out how it applies or when it's in effect versus 00:02:57.509 --> 00:03:00.889 these new tariffs, it's roughly as easy as trying 00:03:00.889 --> 00:03:02.990 to split an atom with a butter knife. Right. 00:03:03.050 --> 00:03:05.150 So it sounds like maybe some internal chaos or 00:03:05.150 --> 00:03:07.689 just lack of clarity on how these new policies 00:03:07.689 --> 00:03:10.189 actually work with the old ones. Could be. Could 00:03:10.189 --> 00:03:13.009 definitely be. OK, so shifting deadlines aside, 00:03:13.409 --> 00:03:15.550 what about actual agreements? You mentioned trade 00:03:15.550 --> 00:03:18.009 frameworks. Yeah. So frameworks were announced 00:03:18.009 --> 00:03:20.370 with the Philippines, Vietnam, and Indonesia. 00:03:20.789 --> 00:03:23.569 They're looking at duties around 19, 20 percent. 00:03:23.590 --> 00:03:25.250 And South Korea. South Korea, too. They got a 00:03:25.250 --> 00:03:27.389 framework. There's a set at 15 percent duties. 00:03:27.889 --> 00:03:30.030 But the commitments they've allegedly made are 00:03:30.030 --> 00:03:32.729 just massive. How massive? We're talking three 00:03:32.729 --> 00:03:35.349 hundred and fifty billion dollars in U .S. investments, 00:03:35.509 --> 00:03:37.430 apparently, as instructed by the administration, 00:03:37.669 --> 00:03:40.090 and another one hundred billion dollars. in buying 00:03:40.090 --> 00:03:44.490 American liquefied natural gas. Whoa. 350 billion? 00:03:44.849 --> 00:03:47.650 That's huge. But you said allegedly. Well, yeah. 00:03:47.830 --> 00:03:49.530 And this is something for you listening to think 00:03:49.530 --> 00:03:52.610 about. How solid are these kinds of promises? 00:03:52.789 --> 00:03:54.969 Have we seen big promises like this before that 00:03:54.969 --> 00:03:57.800 didn't quite... Pan out. We have. Our sources 00:03:57.800 --> 00:04:00.500 pointed back to past pledges. Japan supposedly 00:04:00.500 --> 00:04:03.520 committed $500 billion at one point. The EU, 00:04:03.800 --> 00:04:07.180 $1 .35 trillion. Those didn't exactly materialize 00:04:07.180 --> 00:04:09.280 as an ounce. So promises are one thing, actual 00:04:09.280 --> 00:04:11.719 investment is another. OK, so summing up the 00:04:11.719 --> 00:04:14.599 tariff action today, it feels like. Like that 00:04:14.599 --> 00:04:17.540 phrase didn't chicken out exactly, but he also 00:04:17.540 --> 00:04:19.680 didn't not chicken out. Yeah, that sounds about 00:04:19.680 --> 00:04:22.819 right. They made noise, signed orders. but then 00:04:22.819 --> 00:04:25.100 gave extensions. So the real test is next week. 00:04:25.360 --> 00:04:27.660 I think so. What the stock and bond markets do 00:04:27.660 --> 00:04:29.740 over the next week or two, especially after that 00:04:29.740 --> 00:04:32.459 August 7th extension expires, that'll tell us 00:04:32.459 --> 00:04:34.319 if the administration is really sticking to this. 00:04:34.399 --> 00:04:38.040 Got it. Market reaction is key. Mm -hmm. And 00:04:38.040 --> 00:04:40.720 alongside all this action, there's the PR war. 00:04:41.120 --> 00:04:44.000 That's definitely in full swing. How so? Well, 00:04:44.139 --> 00:04:46.120 White House Press Secretary Caroline Livitt has 00:04:46.120 --> 00:04:49.079 been out there really boasting about tariff revenue. 00:04:49.819 --> 00:04:53.720 Record breaking, she called it. Over 150 billion 00:04:53.720 --> 00:04:56.639 dollars collected. Right. And, you know, just 00:04:56.639 --> 00:04:58.199 pause and think about that for a second. Yeah. 00:04:58.500 --> 00:05:01.680 Can you imagine any president from any party 00:05:01.680 --> 00:05:04.439 bragging like, hey, everyone, great news. The 00:05:04.439 --> 00:05:06.839 IRS collected more income tax on the middle class 00:05:06.839 --> 00:05:09.420 this year than ever before. No, of course not. 00:05:09.540 --> 00:05:11.660 People hate taxes. It's probably the least popular 00:05:11.660 --> 00:05:14.639 thing government does. Exactly. So bragging about 00:05:14.639 --> 00:05:17.060 collecting tariff money. It plays right into 00:05:17.060 --> 00:05:19.040 the counter argument, doesn't it? The democratic 00:05:19.040 --> 00:05:22.319 narrative is basically, these tariffs aren't 00:05:22.319 --> 00:05:25.620 paid by China or whoever, they're paid by Americans. 00:05:25.920 --> 00:05:28.240 It's a tax on consumers. And that message gets 00:05:28.240 --> 00:05:30.399 easier to sell if people start seeing prices 00:05:30.399 --> 00:05:32.680 go up. Way easier. If it hits you at the gas 00:05:32.680 --> 00:05:35.639 pump or the grocery store or, you know, Walmart 00:05:35.639 --> 00:05:38.420 or Target, then the message becomes pretty simple. 00:05:38.839 --> 00:05:41.019 The administration is taking money out of your 00:05:41.019 --> 00:05:43.730 pocket faster than ever. And listen, they just 00:05:43.730 --> 00:05:45.290 bragged about how good they are at doing it. 00:05:45.350 --> 00:05:47.649 It's potent messaging. Yeah. And speaking of 00:05:47.649 --> 00:05:50.389 bragging or braggadocio, as one source put it, 00:05:50.730 --> 00:05:52.449 it seems they're not stopping at tariff revenue. 00:05:52.730 --> 00:05:55.089 No, they're aiming higher, much higher. Nobel 00:05:55.089 --> 00:05:58.360 prizes, plural. Plural. First, Levitt claimed 00:05:58.360 --> 00:06:00.819 her boss deserves the Nobel Peace Prize. On what 00:06:00.819 --> 00:06:02.899 grounds? Because, she said, the administration 00:06:02.899 --> 00:06:05.959 has brokered, quote, about one peace deal or 00:06:05.959 --> 00:06:08.540 ceasefire per month. One per month? Seriously, 00:06:08.779 --> 00:06:11.120 which ones? She listed them. Thailand, Cambodia, 00:06:11.639 --> 00:06:14.339 Israel, Iran, which is a head scratcher, Rwanda, 00:06:14.339 --> 00:06:18.519 DRC, India, Pakistan, Serbia, Kosovo, and Egypt, 00:06:18.680 --> 00:06:23.019 Ethiopia. Israel, Iran, that seems. Optimistic. 00:06:23.459 --> 00:06:26.180 Very optimistic. The analyses we read said you 00:06:26.180 --> 00:06:29.600 need a very loose definition of peace deal for 00:06:29.600 --> 00:06:31.740 that list to hold up. Did these countries agree 00:06:31.740 --> 00:06:34.959 they had help? Some flat out deny the administration 00:06:34.959 --> 00:06:37.399 was involved at all. And, you know, the big ongoing 00:06:37.399 --> 00:06:42.060 wars, Ukraine, Gaza, they haven't ended. If anything, 00:06:42.060 --> 00:06:45.199 they've gotten worse. So a call from Oslo might 00:06:45.199 --> 00:06:48.600 not be imminent. Seems unlikely. Yes. OK, so 00:06:48.600 --> 00:06:50.360 that's the Peace Prize claim. What's the other 00:06:50.360 --> 00:06:53.509 one? Economics. U .S. Trade Representative Peter 00:06:53.509 --> 00:06:55.790 Navarro suggested the administration might be 00:06:55.790 --> 00:06:59.149 up for the Nobel Memorial Prize in Economic Sciences. 00:06:59.389 --> 00:07:02.209 Because? Because, according to Navarro, the administration 00:07:02.209 --> 00:07:05.170 has basically taught the world trade economics. 00:07:05.470 --> 00:07:08.389 Right. OK. How did the experts react to that? 00:07:08.569 --> 00:07:10.930 With quite a bit of skepticism, one source said, 00:07:10.970 --> 00:07:13.009 you know, you kind of hope Navarro was just kissing 00:07:13.009 --> 00:07:15.449 up and doesn't actually believe that. Why? Because, 00:07:15.529 --> 00:07:18.290 as they put it, the administration has not taught 00:07:18.290 --> 00:07:20.970 the world anything about trade economics except 00:07:21.160 --> 00:07:23.680 maybe what not to do. Yeah, and it's important 00:07:23.680 --> 00:07:26.079 to remember the economics Nobel isn't like the 00:07:26.079 --> 00:07:29.360 peace prize. It's a research award, like chemistry 00:07:29.360 --> 00:07:32.360 or physics. It's not for implementing policy. 00:07:32.500 --> 00:07:35.339 So all this talk about Nobels and record revenue. 00:07:35.360 --> 00:07:39.139 Yeah. It feels less about substance and more 00:07:39.139 --> 00:07:42.240 about PR. Exactly. It's about winning news cycles. 00:07:42.819 --> 00:07:45.160 The sources really hammer this point, the trade 00:07:45.160 --> 00:07:47.839 war stuff. Fundamentally, it's not about economics. 00:07:47.959 --> 00:07:50.100 It's about perception and winning. But while 00:07:50.100 --> 00:07:52.360 all that PR is happening, there's something else 00:07:52.360 --> 00:07:54.339 potentially huge going on behind the scenes, 00:07:54.480 --> 00:07:56.660 right? A legal challenge. A potentially massive 00:07:56.660 --> 00:07:59.680 one, yes. There's a case arguing the administration 00:07:59.680 --> 00:08:01.920 doesn't even have the legal authority to impose 00:08:01.920 --> 00:08:03.660 these tariffs in the first place. And it was 00:08:03.660 --> 00:08:06.860 just heard. Yesterday. By the full Federal Circuit 00:08:06.860 --> 00:08:09.560 Court of Appeals, all 11 judges. And the vibe 00:08:09.560 --> 00:08:12.170 was? Very skeptical, apparently. The panel is 00:08:12.170 --> 00:08:14.350 eight Democratic appointees, three Republican, 00:08:14.910 --> 00:08:18.050 zero from the current administration. The expectation 00:08:18.050 --> 00:08:20.769 is a pretty resounding loss, maybe even 11 -0. 00:08:21.029 --> 00:08:23.910 OK, so if they lose there, what's next? Supreme 00:08:23.910 --> 00:08:26.430 Court. Undoubtedly, they'll appeal, which leads 00:08:26.430 --> 00:08:28.709 to the big questions. Will the Supreme Court 00:08:28.709 --> 00:08:31.329 even take the case? If they do, how do they rule? 00:08:31.730 --> 00:08:34.070 And then there's this really interesting twist 00:08:34.070 --> 00:08:36.769 the sources explored. Yeah. What ruling does 00:08:36.769 --> 00:08:39.330 the administration actually want? You mean they... 00:08:39.519 --> 00:08:42.840 They might want to lose an out. It's a possibility 00:08:42.840 --> 00:08:46.059 think about it if the Supreme Court refuses the 00:08:46.059 --> 00:08:48.720 case or rules against the administration, they 00:08:48.720 --> 00:08:51.379 can blame the courts. Exactly. They can rail 00:08:51.379 --> 00:08:54.659 against the evil judges, stopping them from putting 00:08:54.659 --> 00:08:57.340 America first with tariffs. It fires up the base, 00:08:57.379 --> 00:08:59.279 gives them tons of red meat without actually 00:08:59.279 --> 00:09:01.460 having to deal with the economic fallout of the 00:09:01.460 --> 00:09:03.779 terrorists themselves. Precisely. Now, the sources 00:09:03.779 --> 00:09:06.100 admit it's probably not likely they're actively 00:09:06.100 --> 00:09:08.899 hoping the courts bail them out, but it really 00:09:08.899 --> 00:09:11.580 highlights the huge political and economic risk 00:09:11.580 --> 00:09:14.620 you're taking here. If this tariff strategy backfires 00:09:14.620 --> 00:09:18.000 badly, the downsides could be devastating. Wow. 00:09:18.360 --> 00:09:21.000 Okay, so tariffs are a huge gamble. And that 00:09:21.000 --> 00:09:22.860 brings us to the other big gamble you mentioned. 00:09:23.720 --> 00:09:26.600 Redistricting. The battle of the maps. Yeah, 00:09:26.779 --> 00:09:29.259 another area with really high stakes and big 00:09:29.259 --> 00:09:31.600 risks being taken. For listeners who might not 00:09:31.600 --> 00:09:34.580 follow this closely, redistricting is basically 00:09:34.580 --> 00:09:37.070 redrawing the maps. for electoral districts, 00:09:37.190 --> 00:09:40.490 right? Usually after the census. That's it. And 00:09:40.490 --> 00:09:42.750 gerrymandering is when those lines get drawn 00:09:42.750 --> 00:09:45.649 specifically to help one party win more seats, 00:09:45.990 --> 00:09:48.809 often leading to some really weird -looking districts. 00:09:48.870 --> 00:09:51.230 And Texas is making a big move here. They are. 00:09:51.269 --> 00:09:54.129 They've officially put forward a plan to re -gerrymander 00:09:54.129 --> 00:09:56.389 their congressional map. Even though it's already 00:09:56.389 --> 00:09:59.149 pretty gerrymandered. Oh, yeah. The sources basically 00:09:59.149 --> 00:10:01.769 say it's already gerrymandered six ways to Sunday, 00:10:01.809 --> 00:10:03.769 so they're trying to squeeze even more out of 00:10:03.769 --> 00:10:06.440 it. What are the risks there? Well, there's uncertainty 00:10:06.440 --> 00:10:09.240 about how Latino voters are shifting, plus just 00:10:09.240 --> 00:10:11.600 general population changes since the last census 00:10:11.600 --> 00:10:14.259 in 2020. So it's definitely a roll of the dice. 00:10:14.399 --> 00:10:16.919 What's the goal for Texas Republicans? It's ambitious. 00:10:17.139 --> 00:10:20.019 They want to use this new map to flip five seats 00:10:20.019 --> 00:10:22.360 in the House from Democrat to Republican. Which 00:10:22.360 --> 00:10:24.899 districts are we talking about? Places like TX09, 00:10:25.220 --> 00:10:30.759 TX28, TX32, TX34, and TX35. And notably, under 00:10:30.759 --> 00:10:33.559 these proposed new lines, the current administration 00:10:33.559 --> 00:10:36.620 won all of them pretty comfortably in 2024 by 00:10:36.620 --> 00:10:39.659 double digits. OK, is there pushback? Oh, yeah. 00:10:40.000 --> 00:10:42.639 It's even going to force a really tough Democratic 00:10:42.639 --> 00:10:45.259 primary between Representatives Lloyd Doggett, 00:10:45.299 --> 00:10:47.879 who's a veteran, and Greg Serrer. And Caesar's 00:10:47.879 --> 00:10:50.960 not happy. No, he's called it illegal voter suppression 00:10:50.960 --> 00:10:53.899 of Black and Latino Texans. But will that argument 00:10:53.899 --> 00:10:55.980 hold up in court? What's the legal situation? 00:10:56.100 --> 00:10:58.059 That's the key thing. The Supreme Court has said 00:10:58.059 --> 00:11:01.000 drawing lines based on race is illegal, but drawing 00:11:01.000 --> 00:11:03.379 lines purely for partisan advantage. That's okay. 00:11:03.500 --> 00:11:05.740 Or a hunky dory, as one source put it. So if 00:11:05.740 --> 00:11:07.799 the mapmakers argue it's just about politics, 00:11:08.080 --> 00:11:10.899 not race. They're probably safe. And interestingly, 00:11:11.240 --> 00:11:13.600 this new map actually increases the number of 00:11:13.600 --> 00:11:15.639 districts where Latino voters are the majority. 00:11:15.919 --> 00:11:18.279 So it's hard to argue it's racially discriminatory, 00:11:18.559 --> 00:11:21.159 even if the intent is to help Republicans. How 00:11:21.159 --> 00:11:22.659 does it help Republicans, then, if they're creating 00:11:22.659 --> 00:11:24.679 more Latino majority districts which tend to 00:11:24.679 --> 00:11:27.419 lean Democratic? Ah, it's about concentration. 00:11:28.440 --> 00:11:31.070 The strategy is called packing. They take Democratic 00:11:31.070 --> 00:11:33.750 voters out of those five target districts. And 00:11:33.750 --> 00:11:35.750 stuff them into districts that are already safely 00:11:35.750 --> 00:11:38.110 Democratic. Exactly. Make a district that was, 00:11:38.110 --> 00:11:41.129 say, 30 points Democratic into one that's 40 00:11:41.129 --> 00:11:44.009 points Democratic. It shores up the Dem incumbent 00:11:44.009 --> 00:11:46.269 there, but makes the surrounding districts redder. 00:11:46.509 --> 00:11:49.409 So what's the potential shift in the Texas delegation? 00:11:50.429 --> 00:11:53.070 Currently it's 25 Republicans, 13 Democrats. 00:11:53.190 --> 00:11:55.980 Right. If this new map works perfectly for the 00:11:55.980 --> 00:11:58.340 GOP, our sources estimate it could become 30 00:11:58.340 --> 00:12:00.740 Republicans and only eight Democrats. A five 00:12:00.740 --> 00:12:03.279 seed game. But you said if it works perfectly, 00:12:04.120 --> 00:12:06.039 what could go wrong? Well, this is the risk of 00:12:06.039 --> 00:12:08.450 what they call a dummymander. A dummymander. 00:12:08.570 --> 00:12:11.190 Yeah, like a gerrymander that backfires. When 00:12:11.190 --> 00:12:14.409 you pack Democrats into super safe blue districts, 00:12:14.769 --> 00:12:17.029 those districts have to get smaller geographically, 00:12:17.169 --> 00:12:19.730 right? They lose voters elsewhere. OK. Which 00:12:19.730 --> 00:12:21.669 means some Republican districts might have to 00:12:21.669 --> 00:12:24.149 expand and take in voters they didn't have before. 00:12:24.409 --> 00:12:26.690 They could get watered down. Making them potentially 00:12:26.690 --> 00:12:29.029 vulnerable, especially if there's a big Democratic 00:12:29.029 --> 00:12:31.950 year, a blue wave. Exactly. If the mapmakers 00:12:31.950 --> 00:12:34.210 miscalculate their margins, they could accidentally 00:12:34.210 --> 00:12:36.470 make some of their own seats competitive. Are 00:12:36.470 --> 00:12:38.990 the analysts agreeing on how risky this Texas 00:12:38.990 --> 00:12:41.669 map is? Not entirely. We're seeing conflicting 00:12:41.669 --> 00:12:44.509 takes. Larry Sabato's crystal ball team thinks 00:12:44.509 --> 00:12:47.129 even in a blue wave, Republicans probably won't 00:12:47.129 --> 00:12:49.629 drop below their current 25 seats, maybe get 00:12:49.629 --> 00:12:52.929 26. They see only about four competitive districts 00:12:52.929 --> 00:12:55.590 left. OK, so Sabato thinks the risk is contained. 00:12:55.769 --> 00:12:57.990 But then you have Sam Wang over at the Princeton 00:12:57.990 --> 00:13:00.070 gerrymandering project. He thinks this map could 00:13:00.070 --> 00:13:02.730 actually put as much as a dozen Republican seats 00:13:02.730 --> 00:13:05.350 at risk if things break badly for them. A dozen. 00:13:05.590 --> 00:13:07.809 That's a huge difference from Sabato. It really 00:13:07.809 --> 00:13:10.789 is. And there's also a new poll from the DCCC, 00:13:11.110 --> 00:13:13.649 the Democrats' House campaign arm, saying Texans 00:13:13.649 --> 00:13:16.389 really dislike these gerrymander plans. Which 00:13:16.389 --> 00:13:18.870 could motivate Democrats to vote. Could do, yeah. 00:13:19.049 --> 00:13:21.590 It just shows there are so many X factors here. 00:13:22.029 --> 00:13:24.190 Small changes in assumptions about turnout or 00:13:24.190 --> 00:13:26.950 voter shifts can lead to wildly different predictions. 00:13:27.210 --> 00:13:29.590 Is Texas the only state doing this? Are other 00:13:29.590 --> 00:13:31.970 Republican states jumping in? Others are definitely 00:13:31.970 --> 00:13:34.350 looking at it. Ohio is talking about aiming for 00:13:34.350 --> 00:13:36.990 two more Republican seats. Florida's Governor 00:13:36.990 --> 00:13:39.129 DeSantis has hinted they could maybe squeeze 00:13:39.129 --> 00:13:41.970 out one or two more. But Florida's already so 00:13:41.970 --> 00:13:44.409 heavily gerrymandered, the risks there are probably 00:13:44.409 --> 00:13:47.659 higher. Missouri is also looking, but it's apparently 00:13:47.659 --> 00:13:49.659 harder to make their map even more Republican. 00:13:50.539 --> 00:13:54.919 So stepping back. Yeah. How should we think about 00:13:54.919 --> 00:13:58.620 this? Is this good strategy bad for democracy? 00:13:58.940 --> 00:14:01.759 Well, from a purely healthy democracy perspective, 00:14:01.960 --> 00:14:04.700 the sources are clear. This kind of aggressive, 00:14:04.980 --> 00:14:07.879 partisan gerrymandering is very bad. Why? Because 00:14:07.879 --> 00:14:10.580 it essentially quiets the voices of minority 00:14:10.580 --> 00:14:12.659 party voters and often minority group voters, 00:14:12.840 --> 00:14:14.940 too, even if it's technically legal. It leads 00:14:14.940 --> 00:14:17.460 to state delegations in Congress that are way 00:14:17.460 --> 00:14:19.820 more partisan than the state's overall electorate. 00:14:19.899 --> 00:14:22.659 But from a purely political, tactical view. From 00:14:22.659 --> 00:14:25.080 that standpoint, Republicans seem to think it's 00:14:25.080 --> 00:14:27.820 fairly sound. More sound, frankly, than the tariff 00:14:27.820 --> 00:14:28.929 policy we were talking about. just talking about. 00:14:29.169 --> 00:14:31.549 Well, it might help them hold on to the House 00:14:31.549 --> 00:14:33.929 majority even if there's a small blue wave. And 00:14:33.929 --> 00:14:35.830 if there's a huge blue wave and they lose the 00:14:35.830 --> 00:14:38.110 House anyway, well, there's not much practical 00:14:38.110 --> 00:14:40.230 difference between being a small minority or 00:14:40.230 --> 00:14:42.470 a slightly larger minority. So the thinking is, 00:14:42.830 --> 00:14:45.750 might as well squeeze the maps for every possible 00:14:45.750 --> 00:14:48.570 seat now. OK, so that's the Republican strategy. 00:14:48.850 --> 00:14:51.049 But it's not happening in a vacuum, right? Are 00:14:51.049 --> 00:14:53.250 Democrats pushing back? Oh, absolutely. This 00:14:53.250 --> 00:14:55.570 is the other half of the story. We're seeing 00:14:55.570 --> 00:14:57.850 governors in blue states like New York in New 00:14:57.850 --> 00:15:00.669 Jersey starting to respond. House Democratic 00:15:00.669 --> 00:15:04.169 Leader Hakim Jeffries and the DCCC are apparently 00:15:04.169 --> 00:15:06.309 encouraging states like Minnesota and Washington 00:15:06.309 --> 00:15:08.990 to consider counter moves. But the biggest noise 00:15:08.990 --> 00:15:12.809 is coming from where? California. Yeah, the loudest 00:15:12.809 --> 00:15:14.850 talk seems to be from California Governor Gavin 00:15:14.850 --> 00:15:16.690 Newsom. But California is different, isn't it? 00:15:16.710 --> 00:15:18.789 Don't they have an independent commission drawing 00:15:18.789 --> 00:15:21.429 maps? That's supposed to be less partisan. They 00:15:21.429 --> 00:15:24.669 do currently, which makes Newsom's potential 00:15:24.669 --> 00:15:27.590 moves pretty significant. Our sources say he's 00:15:27.590 --> 00:15:29.549 basically looking at two options. Okay, what's 00:15:29.549 --> 00:15:32.889 option one? Option one is the more radical approach. 00:15:33.370 --> 00:15:35.909 Call a state legislature back into session, push 00:15:35.909 --> 00:15:37.909 through a ballot initiative to actually abolish 00:15:37.909 --> 00:15:40.490 the independent commission, hold a special election. 00:15:40.669 --> 00:15:42.990 Wow. And the justification would be? Fighting 00:15:42.990 --> 00:15:46.750 fire with fire. Framing it as needing to push 00:15:46.750 --> 00:15:49.990 back against states like Texas that are rigging 00:15:49.990 --> 00:15:52.309 elections through gerrymandering. That sounds 00:15:52.309 --> 00:15:55.149 like a heavy lift, politically and legally. Is 00:15:55.149 --> 00:15:57.600 there another path? There is. And the sources 00:15:57.600 --> 00:15:59.840 suggest it's probably Newsom's preferred route 00:15:59.840 --> 00:16:02.299 because it's less extreme and faster. Which is? 00:16:02.659 --> 00:16:04.879 Call a special election, maybe line it up with 00:16:04.879 --> 00:16:07.279 the November midterms, only to get rid of the 00:16:07.279 --> 00:16:10.039 current maps drawn by the commission. Replace 00:16:10.039 --> 00:16:12.419 them with legislature -drawn maps that are better 00:16:12.419 --> 00:16:15.059 for Democrats, but just until the next census 00:16:15.059 --> 00:16:18.080 in 2030. So keep the commission long -term, but 00:16:18.080 --> 00:16:20.840 override it temporarily. Exactly. The framing 00:16:20.840 --> 00:16:23.690 would be something like... This is a temporary 00:16:23.690 --> 00:16:26.450 emergency measure to fight back against Trumpism 00:16:26.450 --> 00:16:28.870 and protect democracy. You know, desperate times 00:16:28.870 --> 00:16:31.309 call for desperate measures. It's tactically 00:16:31.309 --> 00:16:33.789 appealing because they could get favorable maps 00:16:33.789 --> 00:16:36.710 for most of the decade without permanently killing 00:16:36.710 --> 00:16:40.110 the commission reform voters approved. And California, 00:16:40.210 --> 00:16:42.889 with its huge number of districts, must be a 00:16:42.889 --> 00:16:44.850 prime target for Democrats if the legislature 00:16:44.850 --> 00:16:47.669 gets control. Oh, it's definitely a target rich 00:16:47.669 --> 00:16:50.470 environment, as one source put it. They could 00:16:50.470 --> 00:16:53.639 make life much harder. for at least four Republican 00:16:53.639 --> 00:16:56.960 incumbents. Which ones? The sources mention representatives 00:16:56.960 --> 00:16:59.679 Kevin Kelly, Ken Calvert, Young Kim, and David 00:16:59.679 --> 00:17:02.220 Valadao. They could redraw the lines to pack 00:17:02.220 --> 00:17:04.480 more Democrats into their districts. Can you 00:17:04.480 --> 00:17:07.019 give an example? Sure. Take David Valadao's district, 00:17:07.160 --> 00:17:10.539 CA 22. It's currently rated R plus one, meaning 00:17:10.539 --> 00:17:13.339 just barely Republican leaning. They could easily 00:17:13.339 --> 00:17:15.619 shift some Republican voters out and pull in 00:17:15.619 --> 00:17:17.420 Democratic voters from a neighboring district, 00:17:17.720 --> 00:17:19.779 making it much harder for him to win. And could 00:17:19.779 --> 00:17:21.839 they also shore up their own vulnerable? Democrats. 00:17:22.160 --> 00:17:25.160 Yes. There are about three districts currently 00:17:25.160 --> 00:17:27.859 rated D plus one just barely Democratic. They 00:17:27.859 --> 00:17:31.039 could make those safer too. So potentially with 00:17:31.039 --> 00:17:34.140 skillful map drawing Democrats could flip maybe 00:17:34.140 --> 00:17:36.740 four Republican seats and protect three of their 00:17:36.740 --> 00:17:39.079 own incumbents. Even if the districts end up 00:17:39.079 --> 00:17:41.619 looking a bit strange. Even if they end up looking 00:17:41.619 --> 00:17:44.759 pretty weird. Yeah. The potential gain is significant. 00:17:45.559 --> 00:17:49.319 So summing up the redistricting battle both sides 00:17:49.319 --> 00:17:51.640 are playing hardball. but facing different kinds 00:17:51.640 --> 00:17:53.920 of hurdles. That's right. For the blue states 00:17:53.920 --> 00:17:56.500 trying to counter gerrymander, the main obstacles 00:17:56.500 --> 00:18:00.079 are often political and legal. Things like existing 00:18:00.079 --> 00:18:03.099 state laws favoring independent commissions or 00:18:03.099 --> 00:18:05.099 even resistance from within the Democratic Party 00:18:05.099 --> 00:18:07.440 about overriding voter approved reforms. Whereas 00:18:07.440 --> 00:18:09.359 for the red states, for red states like Texas 00:18:09.359 --> 00:18:11.660 or Florida, the obstacles are more logistical. 00:18:11.940 --> 00:18:14.279 Their maps are often already so aggressively 00:18:14.279 --> 00:18:16.680 gerrymandered, it's just harder to find more 00:18:16.680 --> 00:18:19.099 seats to squeeze out without taking big risks. 00:18:19.200 --> 00:18:21.200 Which brings us back to that dummymander risk 00:18:21.200 --> 00:18:23.960 again. Exactly. It's a risk for both sides. If 00:18:23.960 --> 00:18:26.920 either party gets too greedy, if they miscalculate 00:18:26.920 --> 00:18:28.880 their margins of error, they could easily end 00:18:28.880 --> 00:18:31.339 up drawing maps that blow up in their faces and 00:18:31.339 --> 00:18:33.779 cost them seats they thought were safe. It's 00:18:33.779 --> 00:18:36.180 dummymander time potentially everywhere. A high 00:18:36.180 --> 00:18:38.859 stakes gamble indeed. Okay. So as we wrap up 00:18:38.859 --> 00:18:40.900 this deep dive, we've really covered a lot of 00:18:40.900 --> 00:18:43.380 ground. This intricate high stakes political 00:18:43.380 --> 00:18:46.460 maneuvering on two fronts, global trade tariffs 00:18:46.460 --> 00:18:49.240 and these domestic redistricting battles. Yeah. 00:18:49.240 --> 00:18:51.829 Both playing out right now, August 1st. with 00:18:51.829 --> 00:18:54.789 potentially huge consequences. So maybe a final 00:18:54.789 --> 00:18:57.170 thought for you, our listener, to chew on. OK. 00:18:57.269 --> 00:19:00.289 In this current climate, this era of just relentless 00:19:00.289 --> 00:19:03.430 political winning, where both sides seem focused 00:19:03.430 --> 00:19:07.230 on aggressive short term gains, how much do these 00:19:07.230 --> 00:19:09.269 things, these tariff structures, these carefully 00:19:09.269 --> 00:19:11.869 drawn maps, how much do they really end up dictating 00:19:11.869 --> 00:19:14.009 what happens next with our economy, with our 00:19:14.009 --> 00:19:17.470 elections? Or do other things, maybe less predictable 00:19:17.470 --> 00:19:19.410 things. The X factors we talked about ultimately 00:19:19.410 --> 00:19:21.759 matter more. Right. Things like voter turnout, 00:19:22.099 --> 00:19:24.240 unexpected court decisions, maybe some global 00:19:24.240 --> 00:19:26.480 event we can't even foresee right now. Yeah. 00:19:26.740 --> 00:19:28.680 Do those factors still hold the trump cards, 00:19:29.019 --> 00:19:31.500 reminding us that even the best laid plans, the 00:19:31.500 --> 00:19:33.960 most gerrymandered maps can run into surprising 00:19:33.960 --> 00:19:36.599 detours? It's a crucial question. How much control 00:19:36.599 --> 00:19:39.740 do they really have versus how much is just unpredictable? 00:19:40.480 --> 00:19:41.920 Something to definitely keep thinking about.