WEBVTT

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OK, let's unpack this. Welcome, everyone, to

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the deep dive. We've got a fresh stack of sources

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here. And our mission is really to pull out the

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key insights for you. We're diving into the current

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political landscape today, some surprising legal

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stuff, election dynamics. Yeah, exactly. And

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what we're seeing in these sources, it's a really

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fascinating mix, isn't it? Legal challenges,

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these electoral strategies unfolding, and, well,

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some decisions that make you go, hmm. Our goal

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really is to help you connect those dots, not

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just the what, but the why it matters. Give you

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that shortcut to being properly informed. Absolutely.

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So let's jump right in with a legal case that,

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well, it could potentially change a lot. Ghislain

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Maxwell's Supreme Court case. Sources are detailing

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this alleged plan from Donald Trump trying to

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get Maxwell to testify against Democrats. The

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trade. a pardon. But, you know, it's not straightforward.

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Lots of ways it could fall apart. She might want

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that pardon up front. Maybe the base just won't

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buy her story. Or, and this is interesting, the

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Supreme Court might just step in and bail her

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out anyway. Right. And what's really insightful

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here, the core of her argument, comes down to

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one specific line in Jeffrey Epstein's 2007 plea

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deal, a line that neutral lawyers called unqualified.

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Okay. It basically said, the U .S. will not institute

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any criminal charges against any potential co

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-conspirators of Epstein. Just blanket immunity

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for unnamed people. Wow. Yeah. Legal experts

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looked at that and were frankly astonished. And

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it's worth remembering the U .S. attorney who

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signed off on that deal, Rene Alexander Acosta,

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he later became Trump's secretary of labor. Right.

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Now the government's lawyer, the solicitor general,

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is arguing they didn't know Maxwell's full role

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back then. So no immunity for her. OK, so let's

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play this out. If the court does rule for Maxwell,

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what does that mean beyond just her case? Are

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there wider implications for the justice system?

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That's a really profound question, actually.

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It touches on how justice is applied. Look, if

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they decide that plea deal did cover her, yeah,

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her conviction could get tossed, which helps

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Trump now. But connecting this to the bigger

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picture, think about it. It could totally change

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how the Department of Justice works going forward.

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I mean, imagine if plea deals could just be revoked

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later on. Defendants, especially ones with money

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who don't care about legal fees, might just say,

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nope, no deal. I'll risk trial. Right. You'd

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see way more cases going to court, stretching

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DOJ resources incredibly thin. It might even

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make it harder to convict people, letting more

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criminals potentially walk free. It really challenges

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the foundation of how the system manages cases

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and gets agreements. And sticking with the Epstein

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files for a moment, Chuck Schumer, the Senate

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minority leader, he's trying something too, right?

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Using some obscure law. Something about five

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members of the Senate Homeland Security Committee

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being able to demand documents. Yeah, that's

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the one. The House Government Operations Committee

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has a similar power, but they need seven members.

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So what are the odds of actually getting unredacted

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files this way? Is it likely? The sources we're

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looking at suggest the probability is, well,

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extremely low. Trump could just redact everything.

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Or challenge the law itself in the Supreme Court.

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OK. But the politics of it are still important.

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regardless. You get Democrats pushing, being

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seen trying to release the files, Republicans

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blocking. Exactly. Democrats get asked, what's

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he hiding? And that could definitely play into

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the midterms. Maybe even keep some GOP voters

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home. So these legal fights keep bubbling up,

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throwing off political sparks. But it's not just

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courts and campaigns. We're also seeing pressure

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on major institutions, right? Universities. And

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these reports Frankly, they're disturbing Columbia

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supposedly paying 220 million dollars in protection

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money and now Harvard reportedly looking at paying

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500 million dollars just to continue to exist

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That's a phrasing from the source. It's the scale

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of it that's striking and what it implies I mean

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Harvard has what 53 billion dollars in the bank

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an army of brilliant lawyers. Yeah if they feel

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they have to pay half a billion dollars. The

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source suggests that points towards something

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pretty concerning, like deep institutional pressure,

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maybe even bordering on, well, the source uses

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the term fascism. That's strong language. It

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is. And the crucial questions aren't just about

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the cash. It's about the precedent. Does the

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government get a say in university policies now?

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Protests, speakers, hiring, admissions. curriculum.

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Because Penn settled earlier, but that was policy

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changes, no money. Exactly. Ben changed policies,

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but didn't pay. If Harvard caves on the money

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demand, it sets a really dangerous precedent,

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makes it much harder for any other university

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to resist similar pressure down the line. You

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know, after talking about all these legal and

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institutional fights, maybe we should check the

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public mood. Let's look at Donald Trump's approval

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ratings. What are the latest polls telling us?

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Our sources seem pretty clear on this. Yeah,

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they are. He's deeply underwater, consistently

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at or below 40 % approval. Gallup just had him

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at 37%. And the trend is just unmistakable. Since

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the start of his term is net approval, that's

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approval minus disapproval, it's dropped 18 points

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from plus 9 to minus 9. How does that stack up

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historically? Pretty stark when you compare.

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At similar points, Biden was plus 10 net. Obama

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plus 18, George W. Bush plus 24. So quite a difference.

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Huge. And what's really driving this drop, what's

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illuminating here? Independence. They have really

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soured on him. He's got a minus 33 net disapproval

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with independence. Minus 33. That's significant.

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And what about the details, the cross stabs?

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Who specifically is moving away? Well, the cross

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stabs really show it. He's losing ground with

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groups that used to be more solid form. Men,

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white voters, seniors, lower and middle income

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folks. And on the issues? For image across the

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board, he's in negative territory. Immigration,

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the economy, trade, education, abortion, climate

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change, especially inflation. People aren't happy.

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Are there any issues where he's doing OK? Honestly,

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looking at the data we have, those key areas

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are consistently showing negative ratings. It

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seems like broad dissatisfaction, not just focused

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on one or two things. OK. So that's the Republican

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side. But the Democrats are making moves to write

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strategically. Let's talk about Kamala Harris.

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She decided not to run for governor of California.

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What is that signal? Presumably twenty twenty

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eight presidential run. It certainly looks that

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way. It's a very calculated decision. I mean,

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think about it. She's giving up what's almost

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a guaranteed governorship. California usually

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gives governors two terms right for a shot at

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the presidency, which is, you know, much longer

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odds. Yeah. Our sources figure. Her internal

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polling must look pretty decent for her to make

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that leap. What are her strengths and weaknesses

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looking ahead? Well, she's got strengths. The

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2024 campaign performance was seen as strong.

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She has name recognition, a network, fundraising

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potential. But challenges, too. Definitely. You

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hear some Democrats talking about wanting a quote,

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bland white man nominee. And then there's the

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direct rivalry with Governor Gavin Newsom, another

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Californian. They'll be competing for the same

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donors, the same delegates. That could get intense.

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And her decision not to run for governor, it

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shakes up that California race immediately, doesn't

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it? Oh, absolutely. It turns it into a real barn

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burner. Lots of Democrats jumping in. Katie Porter,

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the former rep, looks like an early favorite.

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And I read somewhere that this might actually

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help the California GOP. How does that work?

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Yeah, it's interesting. With so many Democrats

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potentially splitting the vote in California's

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top two primary. Where the top two finishers

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advance, regardless of party. Exactly. The leading

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Republican, who might only get, say, 25 percent

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of the vote, could actually sneak into that second

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spot for the general election. It creates an

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opening for them in a very blue state. OK, let's

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pivot to the Senate now. Democrats seem to be

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playing offense, trying to flip seats, even if

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they can't always get their first choice candidates.

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Right. They had a big win strategically in North

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Carolina. Former Governor Roy Cooper got in the

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race for that open seat, instantly makes it a

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toss up, maybe even leans slightly his way now.

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He's popular. Long track record. Formidable candidate.

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But other states are trickier. Yeah. Different

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challenges elsewhere. Maine, for example. Senator

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Susan Collins looks vulnerable, but Democrats

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really want Governor Janet Mills, whose term

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limited to run. If she doesn't, Chely Pingree,

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the representative, is Plan B. But Mills is the

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dream candidate there. OK. What about Alaska?

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Alaska? They're hoping Mary Peltola runs against

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Senator Dan Sullivan. She's won statewide twice

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already. But if she says no, there's no obvious

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Plan B right now. And then you have red states

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like Montana and Ohio. Right. But with strong

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Democratic incumbents, John Tester in Montana,

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Sherrod Brown in Ohio. These are guys who know

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how to win in tough territory, especially Brown,

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maybe. Ohio is less deep red and the Republican

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senator there was appointed, not elected. So

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potentially vulnerable. And Texas. I keep hearing

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about Texas. Yeah, Texas could get interesting

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if Ken Paxton wins the Republican primary. Sources

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suggest he might be a candidate quality problem

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for the GOP. Which helps Colin Allred, the Democrat.

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Exactly. Boost his chances. And then you have

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the real long shots. You know, Iowa, Nebraska,

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Florida, those depend on retirements or maybe

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a big blue wave year. Right. Sometimes it's less

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about the state and more about the specific opponent

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or some weird dynamic like Alaska's ranked choice

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voting. Precisely. Those factors can override

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the state's typical leanings sometimes. OK, let's

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shift down ballot to the House. 20 House members

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already announced they are not running in 2026.

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Why is that number significant? It's a big deal

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because open seats are just generally easier

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to flip. Than seats where an incumbent is running

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much easier. Okay. Now the sources point out

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a lot of the Republican retirees They're pretty

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safe districts. So not many pickup chances there

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for Democrats. Maybe John James or Don Bacon

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seats in Midwest That's about it. And on the

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Democratic side five Democratic seats are opening

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up. So those will be in play But what's also

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fascinating here is the retirement watch list.

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Mm -hmm particularly what the sources call the

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octodums. Octodums? Yeah, you know, Democrats

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in their 80s. Many are in safe districts. If

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they retire, it means opportunities for new blood

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helps build the party's bench for the future.

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Mikey Sherrill, for example, she was on that

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kind of list and now she's confirmed she's running

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for governor of New Jersey. Speaking of New Jersey,

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that governor's race is happening this year,

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right? One of the few big ones. Could it tell

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us anything about the national mood? It definitely

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could be an indicator. And the current polling,

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according to our sources, shows Mikey Sherrill,

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the Democrat, leading the Republican, Jack Sciattarelli.

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The lead is about eight points, 45 percent to

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37 percent. That's in a state considered D plus

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four, meaning it leans Democrat by about four

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points usually. So she's outperforming that baseline.

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What's the challenge for Sciattarelli then? Well,

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what's compelling is his dilemma. He needs those

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undecided independents. They currently favor

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Sherrill. though it's pretty close among them.

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But to win them over, does he distance himself

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from Trump? That risks alienating his Republican

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base. Or does he embrace Trump? And lose those

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crucial independents. It's a very fine line to

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walk, especially since he only lost by three

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points back in 2021. But he seems to be doing

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worse against Sheryl now. Tough spot. So with

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all this going on the retirements. Though the

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strategic calculations, what does it mean for

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someone like Marjorie Taylor Greene, known as

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a, quote, fire -breathing Trumpist? She decided

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to stay in the House, even though sources point

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to two obvious opportunities for advancement,

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an open governor seat, a vulnerable Democratic

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senator. Yeah, it's interesting. The source speculates

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a few things. Maybe she just doesn't want to

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actually govern, you know, deal with the practical

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stuff like fixing potholes. Prefers the platform.

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Maybe. prefers the national spotlight, the incendiary

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tweets she can do from the House, or it could

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just be polling. Maybe polling showed she'd likely

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lose a statewide Senate race against Jon Ossoff

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because, as the source puts it, independents

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don't like her at all. So a calculated move based

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on her specific brand or electability? Seems

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like it. A specific political calculation rather

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than just a lack of ambition. She's playing the

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game her way. Wow. OK, what a deep dive that

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was. We really bounced around today from those

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intricate legal battles over the Epstein files,

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the pressure on places like Harvard to the big

00:12:15.000 --> 00:12:17.240
shifts in approval ratings, especially with independence.

00:12:17.700 --> 00:12:20.019
And then all the strategic moves, Harris's decision,

00:12:20.200 --> 00:12:22.299
the Senate battlegrounds, House retirements that

00:12:22.299 --> 00:12:24.259
New Jersey raised. Yeah. And if you connect it

00:12:24.259 --> 00:12:26.360
all to the bigger picture, you really see how.

00:12:26.570 --> 00:12:29.250
Everything is constantly moving, constantly interconnected.

00:12:29.870 --> 00:12:32.529
Every little detail, a line in an old plea deal,

00:12:32.929 --> 00:12:35.529
one politician deciding to run or not run at

00:12:35.529 --> 00:12:38.750
all, adds a piece to this huge mosaic of American

00:12:38.750 --> 00:12:41.429
politics. And it really raises an important question,

00:12:41.490 --> 00:12:43.429
doesn't it? As all these threads keep developing,

00:12:43.629 --> 00:12:45.950
keep intertwining, how are they gonna collectively

00:12:45.950 --> 00:12:48.669
shape not just the next election, but maybe the

00:12:48.669 --> 00:12:51.059
very way we're governed in the years ahead? That

00:12:51.059 --> 00:12:52.840
is definitely something to think about. Maybe

00:12:52.840 --> 00:12:54.860
leave this for you, the listener, to ponder.

00:12:55.399 --> 00:12:58.500
Which of these surprising nuggets or strategic

00:12:58.500 --> 00:13:00.120
plays that we talked about today do you think

00:13:00.120 --> 00:13:01.659
will cause the biggest ripples in the coming

00:13:01.659 --> 00:13:02.960
months and why?
