WEBVTT 00:00:00.000 --> 00:00:02.040 How do you possibly cut through all the noise 00:00:02.040 --> 00:00:04.400 these days? I mean, with a news cycle running 00:00:04.400 --> 00:00:07.360 so fast, how do you figure out what's actually 00:00:07.360 --> 00:00:11.339 true, what really matters, and what's just chatter? 00:00:11.939 --> 00:00:13.859 That's basically our job today. We've got this 00:00:13.859 --> 00:00:16.079 whole stack of recent sources we've been digging 00:00:16.079 --> 00:00:19.079 into, everything from tricky trade policy stuff, 00:00:19.440 --> 00:00:22.739 some really high stakes legal updates, and the 00:00:22.739 --> 00:00:25.829 latest twists in those US Senate races. Our mission 00:00:25.829 --> 00:00:28.449 for this deep dive anyway is to weigh through 00:00:28.449 --> 00:00:31.329 all of it, pull out the key insights, maybe some 00:00:31.329 --> 00:00:33.369 surprising facts you didn't catch, and just give 00:00:33.369 --> 00:00:36.009 you a bit of a shortcut to feeling, well, genuinely 00:00:36.009 --> 00:00:38.229 informed. Yeah, the goal isn't just to tell you 00:00:38.229 --> 00:00:39.869 what happened. It's more about understanding 00:00:39.869 --> 00:00:41.530 why it's important, right, and what's really 00:00:41.530 --> 00:00:43.750 going on beneath those headlines. We want to 00:00:43.750 --> 00:00:46.189 help you connect those dots. Okay, let's jump 00:00:46.189 --> 00:00:47.929 right in then. Segment one, we're kind of looking 00:00:47.929 --> 00:00:50.990 at the it's called the art of the deal, specifically 00:00:50.990 --> 00:00:53.590 trade policy under the microscope. So remember 00:00:53.590 --> 00:00:55.689 when that latest trade framework with the EU 00:00:55.689 --> 00:00:58.530 first hit the news? It really looked like a huge 00:00:58.530 --> 00:01:00.810 win for the administration at first blush. Oh, 00:01:00.810 --> 00:01:03.250 yeah. The headlines were pretty positive. EU 00:01:03.250 --> 00:01:06.629 accepts a 15 percent tariff. No retaliation. 00:01:07.010 --> 00:01:09.750 Big promises like 600 billion dollars in U .S. 00:01:10.010 --> 00:01:12.689 investment, 750 billion dollars in American energy 00:01:12.689 --> 00:01:14.849 purchases. It sounded great. Exactly. There was 00:01:14.849 --> 00:01:17.560 this this initial blow. But here's where it gets 00:01:17.560 --> 00:01:20.260 really interesting for us, digging deeper. It 00:01:20.260 --> 00:01:23.459 turns out this deal, and it's key that it's just 00:01:23.459 --> 00:01:26.560 a framework, not signed, was apparently hammered 00:01:26.560 --> 00:01:28.560 out in less than an hour. Less than an hour? 00:01:28.659 --> 00:01:31.140 Yeah. Reportedly between rounds of golf in Scotland. 00:01:31.799 --> 00:01:33.599 I mean, does that really sound like a serious 00:01:33.599 --> 00:01:36.359 way to negotiate pledges that big? Hmm. That 00:01:36.359 --> 00:01:38.900 definitely raises an eyebrow. Negotiating something 00:01:38.900 --> 00:01:42.200 that substantial so casually. It makes you wonder. 00:01:42.340 --> 00:01:44.799 It suggests maybe the initial perception of a 00:01:44.799 --> 00:01:47.239 clear win needs a closer look. Totally. It feels 00:01:47.239 --> 00:01:50.340 less like a solid long -term agreement and maybe 00:01:50.340 --> 00:01:52.840 more about getting a good headline right then. 00:01:53.060 --> 00:01:56.079 Could be. A bit of strategic PR, perhaps. And 00:01:56.079 --> 00:01:59.159 what about those huge dollar figures? That $600 00:01:59.159 --> 00:02:01.379 billion investment promise, for instance. Some 00:02:01.379 --> 00:02:03.760 are calling it vaporware. What's the real story 00:02:03.760 --> 00:02:06.519 when you peel back the layers? Well, that $600 00:02:06.519 --> 00:02:09.900 billion figure is basically just a suggestion. 00:02:09.939 --> 00:02:12.219 It's not binding. European governments aren't 00:02:12.219 --> 00:02:14.580 putting up the cash themselves, and they can't 00:02:14.580 --> 00:02:17.840 make private companies invest here. Oh, OK. So 00:02:17.840 --> 00:02:19.840 if a company was going to invest anyway because 00:02:19.840 --> 00:02:22.020 it made business sense. Exactly. It probably 00:02:22.020 --> 00:02:24.020 would have happened with or without this framework. 00:02:24.120 --> 00:02:28.219 So it relies on these, well, non -minding gestures 00:02:28.219 --> 00:02:31.300 that don't give the US much real economic leverage. 00:02:31.460 --> 00:02:33.860 So sort of business as usual, but dressed up 00:02:33.860 --> 00:02:36.210 nicely. Okay, what about the other big number, 00:02:36.550 --> 00:02:40.629 the $750 billion in energy purchases? Politico 00:02:40.629 --> 00:02:44.270 called that one a fantasy. Why is that seen as 00:02:44.270 --> 00:02:47.189 so implausible? Yeah, fantasy sounds about right. 00:02:47.289 --> 00:02:49.889 The math just doesn't work. For the EU to buy 00:02:49.889 --> 00:02:51.969 that much, they'd basically have to cripple their 00:02:51.969 --> 00:02:54.990 energy buys from the US. Triple. And on our side, 00:02:55.069 --> 00:02:57.409 the US would need to double its total energy 00:02:57.409 --> 00:02:59.750 exports worldwide, not just to Europe. That's 00:02:59.750 --> 00:03:02.229 just not feasible with things as they are now. 00:03:02.330 --> 00:03:04.030 And there's an infrastructure issue too, right? 00:03:04.409 --> 00:03:07.409 especially with natural gas. Precisely. A lot 00:03:07.409 --> 00:03:09.490 of that would have to be liquefied natural gas, 00:03:09.610 --> 00:03:13.229 LNG. And even if we could produce and ship that 00:03:13.229 --> 00:03:17.789 much, many EU countries simply don't have the 00:03:17.789 --> 00:03:20.449 massive terminals of storage needed to handle 00:03:20.449 --> 00:03:22.409 that kind of volume. They can't just absorb it. 00:03:22.610 --> 00:03:25.229 OK, so we have these frameworks, not really signed 00:03:25.229 --> 00:03:27.229 deals. And our sources point out, you know, out 00:03:27.229 --> 00:03:30.449 of six announced trade deals, only the UK one 00:03:30.449 --> 00:03:32.479 is signed. And even that's just a framework. 00:03:32.819 --> 00:03:35.000 Right, which is a huge contrast to something 00:03:35.000 --> 00:03:39.340 like NAFTA or USMCA. Yeah. Those took years of 00:03:39.340 --> 00:03:41.740 detailed negotiation. And maybe the most telling 00:03:41.740 --> 00:03:43.879 part. They're apparently still stuck haggling 00:03:43.879 --> 00:03:46.360 over these incredibly tiny details. Like I saw 00:03:46.360 --> 00:03:48.580 mentions of terrace on pearl onions, not over 00:03:48.580 --> 00:03:51.780 16 millimeters diameter. Pearl onions? Seriously. 00:03:51.960 --> 00:03:55.650 And aromatic esters of formic acid. Sound like, 00:03:55.650 --> 00:03:57.550 I don't know, niche food ingredients, not major 00:03:57.550 --> 00:04:00.229 trade policy points. Is there maybe a strategy 00:04:00.229 --> 00:04:02.389 behind getting bogged down in details that absurd? 00:04:02.650 --> 00:04:04.610 You know, it's possible that observation about 00:04:04.610 --> 00:04:06.569 the Pearl Inions, it actually reviews quite a 00:04:06.569 --> 00:04:08.490 bit about the playbook foreign leaders seem to 00:04:08.490 --> 00:04:10.250 have developed. Okay, what's the playbook look 00:04:10.250 --> 00:04:12.360 like? Well, first, it seems they figured out 00:04:12.360 --> 00:04:14.580 the administration is primarily looking for wins, 00:04:14.819 --> 00:04:17.139 things that look good on paper, bullet points. 00:04:17.360 --> 00:04:20.279 Gotcha. Optics matter. Second, the U .S. tends 00:04:20.279 --> 00:04:22.879 to announce a win and then kind of pivot to the 00:04:22.879 --> 00:04:25.680 next partner, often leaving the first deal unfinished. 00:04:26.500 --> 00:04:28.759 That lack of follow through gives the other side 00:04:28.759 --> 00:04:31.920 leverage. And third, you mentioned the tiny details. 00:04:32.779 --> 00:04:36.120 That gives partners a perfect excuse to just 00:04:36.120 --> 00:04:39.199 stretch out the talks indefinitely, right? Raising 00:04:39.199 --> 00:04:42.360 objections to, well, pearl onions. Exactly. Fourth, 00:04:42.720 --> 00:04:44.500 they know the administration really doesn't want 00:04:44.500 --> 00:04:47.019 to admit that a big announced win later fizzled 00:04:47.019 --> 00:04:49.819 out or turned into a loss. That reluctance creates 00:04:49.819 --> 00:04:51.800 more leverage, threatened to walk away, and maybe 00:04:51.800 --> 00:04:53.959 you get concessions. Makes sense. Keep the narrative 00:04:53.959 --> 00:04:56.180 going. And the fifth point is timing. Partners 00:04:56.180 --> 00:04:58.319 see the calendar potential change in administration 00:04:58.319 --> 00:05:01.879 in January 2029, plus all these ongoing lawsuits 00:05:01.879 --> 00:05:04.860 challenging the tariffs themselves. So why rush? 00:05:05.079 --> 00:05:06.720 Delaying might mean the whole thing just goes 00:05:06.720 --> 00:05:09.959 away. So EU President Ursula von der Leyen might 00:05:09.959 --> 00:05:12.519 have set the template, agree to things that sound 00:05:12.519 --> 00:05:14.720 amazing, but aren't really feasible, and then 00:05:14.720 --> 00:05:16.959 just play defense, slow walk the details. It 00:05:16.959 --> 00:05:19.259 certainly looks that way. Concede the headline, 00:05:19.540 --> 00:05:22.100 then play for time. It's a kind of prevent defense 00:05:22.100 --> 00:05:26.720 strategy. Okay, stepping back, what are the bigger 00:05:26.720 --> 00:05:30.100 economic risks here? I mean, even if these tariffs 00:05:30.100 --> 00:05:32.480 did fully happen, wouldn't that likely cause 00:05:32.480 --> 00:05:35.360 some economic disruption? Inflation, maybe? Impact 00:05:35.360 --> 00:05:37.519 elections down the line? Absolutely. There's 00:05:37.519 --> 00:05:39.540 that risk. Tariffs can definitely fuel inflation. 00:05:39.980 --> 00:05:41.800 And then there's the longer -term worry that 00:05:41.800 --> 00:05:44.459 if the U .S. gets seen as an unreliable negotiating 00:05:44.459 --> 00:05:46.579 partner, other countries might start looking 00:05:46.579 --> 00:05:49.100 elsewhere to do business. That could have lasting 00:05:49.100 --> 00:05:51.439 consequences. And this brings us to something 00:05:51.439 --> 00:05:54.279 pretty striking. Senator Josh Hawley proposing 00:05:54.279 --> 00:05:58.509 $600 tariff rebates for all Americans. That feels 00:05:58.509 --> 00:06:00.790 like, well, an admission of something, doesn't 00:06:00.790 --> 00:06:03.089 it? It really does. It's almost a tacit admission 00:06:03.089 --> 00:06:05.449 that despite political rhetoric saying otherwise, 00:06:05.810 --> 00:06:07.910 the actual costs of these tariffs end up being 00:06:07.910 --> 00:06:11.110 paid mostly by American consumers, not by the 00:06:11.110 --> 00:06:13.790 foreign producers. So the rebates are basically 00:06:13.790 --> 00:06:16.990 trying to offset the cost that consumers are 00:06:16.990 --> 00:06:19.430 already bearing. Pretty much. It highlights that 00:06:19.430 --> 00:06:21.910 direct impact on, you know, your wallet. It's 00:06:21.910 --> 00:06:24.509 a crucial insight hidden in a policy proposal. 00:06:25.050 --> 00:06:27.980 OK, let's pivot now. from the big picture of 00:06:27.980 --> 00:06:32.199 global trade to some very specific individual 00:06:32.199 --> 00:06:34.240 legal situations where the maneuvering gets pretty 00:06:34.240 --> 00:06:37.259 intense and raises some ethical questions. Let's 00:06:37.259 --> 00:06:40.240 start with Ghislaine Maxwell. Right. She's apparently 00:06:40.240 --> 00:06:42.360 willing to talk to the House Oversight Subcommittee, 00:06:42.819 --> 00:06:45.980 but not without conditions. Immunity, getting 00:06:45.980 --> 00:06:48.600 questions in advance, no deposition until her 00:06:48.600 --> 00:06:51.160 appeals are done, and doing it outside of prison. 00:06:51.449 --> 00:06:53.750 It's her leverage here, really. Well, think about 00:06:53.750 --> 00:06:55.970 it. She's already facing what amounts to a life 00:06:55.970 --> 00:06:59.209 sentence. So the usual threat of more jail time 00:06:59.209 --> 00:07:01.410 doesn't carry the same weight for her. Her main 00:07:01.410 --> 00:07:04.069 play seems to be buying time. Buying time for 00:07:04.069 --> 00:07:06.870 what? A pardon, maybe? That's the speculation, 00:07:06.970 --> 00:07:08.930 maybe hoping for some kind of arrangement down 00:07:08.930 --> 00:07:10.750 the road. Because the moment she actually talks, 00:07:10.870 --> 00:07:12.730 her main bargaining chip, her silence, is gone, 00:07:12.910 --> 00:07:15.329 vanished. So she's trying to maximize its value 00:07:15.329 --> 00:07:17.949 before she uses it. Meanwhile, surrounding the 00:07:17.949 --> 00:07:21.040 whole Epstein issue, we've seen some... Let's 00:07:21.040 --> 00:07:23.639 call them attempts to distract or maybe muddy 00:07:23.639 --> 00:07:27.100 the waters Like Donald Trump claiming the Wall 00:07:27.100 --> 00:07:29.420 Street Journal was begging him to settle a defamation 00:07:29.420 --> 00:07:32.019 suit. He filed against them Yeah, I saw that 00:07:32.019 --> 00:07:34.680 the thing is there's just no independent confirmation 00:07:34.680 --> 00:07:36.660 of that claim anywhere when you hear something 00:07:36.660 --> 00:07:38.639 like that The first question should always be 00:07:38.639 --> 00:07:41.459 okay. Who else is reporting this if nobody is 00:07:41.459 --> 00:07:43.670 hard to give it much weight, right? Exactly. 00:07:43.850 --> 00:07:45.569 And then there was that really controversial 00:07:45.569 --> 00:07:48.250 comparison someone made to Brooke Shields' old 00:07:48.250 --> 00:07:51.370 Calvin Klein ads from 1980. The argument was 00:07:51.370 --> 00:07:54.029 kind of, liberals were fine with that back then, 00:07:54.170 --> 00:07:56.889 implying Shields was about the same age as Epstein's 00:07:56.889 --> 00:08:00.290 victims. That comparison is problematic on so 00:08:00.290 --> 00:08:03.610 many levels. First, trying to pin that ad campaign 00:08:03.610 --> 00:08:05.610 specifically on liberals doesn't really hold 00:08:05.610 --> 00:08:08.689 water. And comparing societal norms from over 00:08:08.689 --> 00:08:11.589 40 years ago to today is... Tricky. And Shields 00:08:11.589 --> 00:08:13.509 was a professional model, wasn't she? Right. 00:08:13.509 --> 00:08:15.569 She was a working actress and model with an agent 00:08:15.569 --> 00:08:19.050 she voluntarily took the job. But the most crucial 00:08:19.050 --> 00:08:21.529 distinction, obviously, is the massive difference 00:08:21.529 --> 00:08:23.970 between a provocative ad campaign about jeans 00:08:23.970 --> 00:08:26.750 and the horrific reality of sexual assault and 00:08:26.750 --> 00:08:30.029 trafficking. Equating them is just. It's a false 00:08:30.029 --> 00:08:33.009 equivalence, a serious misdirection. OK, and 00:08:33.009 --> 00:08:35.830 shifting gears slightly. Deputy FBI Director 00:08:35.830 --> 00:08:39.330 Dan Bongino sent out a tweet recently. It hinted 00:08:39.330 --> 00:08:42.990 at some kind of huge conspiracy, but was incredibly 00:08:42.990 --> 00:08:45.629 vague, no details at all. What's the effect of 00:08:45.629 --> 00:08:47.389 something like that? Well, without specifics, 00:08:47.529 --> 00:08:49.509 the impact is usually pretty limited. It might 00:08:49.509 --> 00:08:52.370 stir up his base, you know, but for a conspiracy 00:08:52.370 --> 00:08:54.009 theory to really catch on, it needs something 00:08:54.009 --> 00:08:56.850 concrete, even if it's fabricated. A tweet that 00:08:56.850 --> 00:08:58.929 vague. It's hard to build a compelling narrative 00:08:58.929 --> 00:09:01.409 around it. It feels more like an attempt to just... 00:09:01.370 --> 00:09:05.049 Great noise, maybe. Confuse the issue. OK, sticking 00:09:05.049 --> 00:09:07.490 with legal matters, but moving to the judiciary. 00:09:08.070 --> 00:09:10.570 Emil Bove, Trump nominee for the Third Circuit 00:09:10.570 --> 00:09:12.909 Court of Appeals. He's gotten this reputation, 00:09:13.350 --> 00:09:15.830 maybe unfairly, maybe not, as potentially one 00:09:15.830 --> 00:09:18.149 of the most godawful judicial nominees in the 00:09:18.149 --> 00:09:20.870 last century. Strong words. Yeah. Now, he has 00:09:20.870 --> 00:09:23.370 the credentials on paper, Georgetown Law degree, 00:09:23.590 --> 00:09:26.370 20 years experience. But the nomination itself 00:09:26.370 --> 00:09:29.159 seems. ethically tangled. And that's where the 00:09:29.159 --> 00:09:30.980 story really gets critical for understanding 00:09:30.980 --> 00:09:33.399 the situation. The amount of opposition to Boeuf 00:09:33.399 --> 00:09:36.580 was really remarkable and significantly, it wasn't 00:09:36.580 --> 00:09:39.500 just partisan pushback. Just working for Trump 00:09:39.500 --> 00:09:42.279 previously raises potential conflict of interest 00:09:42.279 --> 00:09:44.279 flags for future cases. Sure, that's standard. 00:09:44.539 --> 00:09:47.299 But the much bigger issue is his alleged involvement 00:09:47.299 --> 00:09:50.259 in some kind of scheme. Sources suggest it could 00:09:50.259 --> 00:09:53.080 even lead to disbarment or potentially prison 00:09:53.080 --> 00:09:55.860 time. And the opposition wasn't quiet. We're 00:09:55.860 --> 00:09:59.230 talking 80 former federal and state judges, plus 00:09:59.230 --> 00:10:03.169 900 former DOJ attorneys. 900, wow. Yeah, signing 00:10:03.169 --> 00:10:05.309 letters warning about what they called his egregious 00:10:05.309 --> 00:10:07.889 record, mistreating law enforcement, abusing 00:10:07.889 --> 00:10:10.889 power, disregarding the law. Plus, you had three 00:10:10.889 --> 00:10:13.149 whistleblowers come forward with specific allegations. 00:10:13.210 --> 00:10:16.289 That's usual. And yet, despite all that, the 00:10:16.289 --> 00:10:21.149 Senate confirmed him. 50 -49. Collins and Murkowski, 00:10:21.450 --> 00:10:23.769 two Republicans, voted against him with the Democrats, 00:10:24.210 --> 00:10:28.330 but it wasn't quite enough. So what happens now? 00:10:28.889 --> 00:10:31.169 Can a judge actually be impeached for things 00:10:31.169 --> 00:10:33.570 they did before getting on the bench? Technically, 00:10:33.690 --> 00:10:36.470 maybe, but realistically, there's no real precedent 00:10:36.470 --> 00:10:38.649 for removing a federal judge for crimes committed 00:10:38.649 --> 00:10:41.009 before they took the oath. It seems highly unlikely 00:10:41.009 --> 00:10:42.750 you'd get enough Republican votes in the Senate 00:10:42.750 --> 00:10:45.330 for removal, even if Democrats controlled it. 00:10:45.500 --> 00:10:48.580 So not much chance of accountability there. Probably 00:10:48.580 --> 00:10:51.259 not through impeachment. There is maybe a small 00:10:51.259 --> 00:10:53.539 silver lining, if you want to call it that. Appeals 00:10:53.539 --> 00:10:55.960 courts usually decide cases in panels of three 00:10:55.960 --> 00:10:58.440 judges, or sometimes the whole circuit hears 00:10:58.440 --> 00:11:01.000 it empang. So unlike a district judge hearing 00:11:01.000 --> 00:11:03.259 a case alone, one controversial judge's ability 00:11:03.259 --> 00:11:06.620 to cause mischief is somewhat limited by the 00:11:06.620 --> 00:11:08.580 penal system. OK, that's some check, I guess. 00:11:08.799 --> 00:11:10.960 But there's a potentially much bigger downside 00:11:10.960 --> 00:11:13.159 loaning, isn't there, beyond just the Third Circuit? 00:11:13.360 --> 00:11:16.120 Absolutely. That's the real worry here. If Justice 00:11:16.120 --> 00:11:18.480 Samuel Alito does retire next June, which many 00:11:18.480 --> 00:11:21.379 people expect, Emil Boeuf could very well be 00:11:21.379 --> 00:11:24.419 Donald Trump's pick for the Supreme Court. And 00:11:24.419 --> 00:11:27.220 that would be a vastly more significant and for 00:11:27.220 --> 00:11:30.299 many concerning appointment for the entire country. 00:11:30.600 --> 00:11:32.679 OK, let's quickly cover a few other legal updates. 00:11:32.740 --> 00:11:35.559 These involve deportations, prisoner swaps, kind 00:11:35.559 --> 00:11:38.279 of indiscriminate arrests, starting with Kilmar 00:11:38.279 --> 00:11:40.919 Abrego Garcia. He's still in federal custody, 00:11:41.460 --> 00:11:43.860 but. Interestingly, it's his lawyers who asked 00:11:43.860 --> 00:11:45.840 for him to stay there, at least for a bit. Yeah, 00:11:45.919 --> 00:11:47.860 that detail is important. They wanted him held 00:11:47.860 --> 00:11:50.639 for 30 days specifically to get a court order 00:11:50.639 --> 00:11:53.399 clarifying his rights after release. And they 00:11:53.399 --> 00:11:56.320 got it. Judge Sheenis in Maryland ordered he 00:11:56.320 --> 00:11:58.779 has to be returned to Maryland and get 72 hours 00:11:58.779 --> 00:12:01.139 notice before any deportation attempt. So what 00:12:01.139 --> 00:12:03.059 does the administration's focus on deporting 00:12:03.059 --> 00:12:05.700 him specifically suggest? If they don't seem 00:12:05.700 --> 00:12:07.639 to have a strong criminal case they're pushing 00:12:07.639 --> 00:12:11.190 publicly. It really does start to look less like 00:12:11.190 --> 00:12:12.929 standard law enforcement and potentially more 00:12:12.929 --> 00:12:16.110 like, well, a vendetta, as some sources put it. 00:12:16.429 --> 00:12:18.789 Prioritizing deportation over prosecution when 00:12:18.789 --> 00:12:21.549 the public case seems thin raises questions about 00:12:21.549 --> 00:12:24.409 the motivation. And then there's this story involving 00:12:24.409 --> 00:12:27.889 the CECOT prison in El Salvador, described as 00:12:27.889 --> 00:12:30.570 a hellhole and a prisoner exchange with Venezuela. 00:12:30.759 --> 00:12:34.159 Right. So 252 people deported from the U .S. 00:12:34.259 --> 00:12:36.539 ended up in CECOT, where reports say they faced 00:12:36.539 --> 00:12:39.419 torture. It now seems these men were basically 00:12:39.419 --> 00:12:42.700 used as political bargaining chips. Pawns. Essentially, 00:12:42.960 --> 00:12:45.759 yes. Pawns to secure the release of 10 Americans 00:12:45.759 --> 00:12:48.580 held in Venezuela. But here's a jarring detail. 00:12:48.860 --> 00:12:51.240 One of those 10 Americans brought back was actually 00:12:51.240 --> 00:12:53.539 a green card holder who'd been convicted of a 00:12:53.539 --> 00:12:56.299 triple murder in Spain and was serving time in 00:12:56.299 --> 00:12:58.480 Venezuela. Wait, so they deport someone described 00:12:58.480 --> 00:13:01.259 as a hairdresser like Abrego, potentially as 00:13:01.259 --> 00:13:03.940 a threat, but bring back a convicted triple murderer 00:13:03.940 --> 00:13:07.100 as part of this swap? It creates a really stark, 00:13:07.500 --> 00:13:10.200 unsettling contrast, doesn't it? And significantly, 00:13:10.360 --> 00:13:12.320 the government has apparently conceded that all 00:13:12.320 --> 00:13:16.159 252 men sent to CCOD can be returned if a court 00:13:16.159 --> 00:13:18.730 orders it. Some are already seeking contempt 00:13:18.730 --> 00:13:21.429 orders because they argue the removal was unlawful. 00:13:21.610 --> 00:13:25.049 Okay, one more on this front, Los Angeles. The 00:13:25.049 --> 00:13:28.470 Ninth Circuit Court heard arguments about a temporary 00:13:28.470 --> 00:13:32.289 restraining order, a TRO, that stops ICE from, 00:13:32.289 --> 00:13:35.110 quote, indiscriminately snatching people off 00:13:35.110 --> 00:13:37.409 the street. How did that go for the government? 00:13:38.000 --> 00:13:41.240 Uh, not well, apparently. Reports say they got 00:13:41.240 --> 00:13:43.340 a chilly reception from the judges. Their main 00:13:43.340 --> 00:13:45.600 argument was basically, we're not doing that, 00:13:45.639 --> 00:13:47.620 and also that the judge's order stopping them 00:13:47.620 --> 00:13:50.299 was too vague. The judges didn't buy the vagueness 00:13:50.299 --> 00:13:52.419 argument. No, they pushed back hard. They pointed 00:13:52.419 --> 00:13:54.679 out the order was actually pretty specific. It 00:13:54.679 --> 00:13:57.460 said ICE couldn't use things like race or accent 00:13:57.460 --> 00:14:00.159 or language or just being in a certain location 00:14:00.159 --> 00:14:02.240 or doing a certain type of work as the only reason 00:14:02.240 --> 00:14:04.679 to suspect someone and arrest them. So you need 00:14:04.679 --> 00:14:07.559 more than just say someone looking or sound - 00:14:07.080 --> 00:14:10.200 Hispanic in a certain neighborhood. Exactly. 00:14:10.399 --> 00:14:12.879 Judge Jennifer Sung actually used a real example. 00:14:13.379 --> 00:14:16.279 A U .S. citizen who was arrested in a tow yard 00:14:16.279 --> 00:14:19.100 seemingly on flimsy grounds. She highlighted 00:14:19.100 --> 00:14:21.700 how easily those vague criteria could sweep up 00:14:21.700 --> 00:14:24.559 citizens in a diverse place like L .A. The feeling 00:14:24.559 --> 00:14:26.580 is the panel will likely tweak the orders wording 00:14:26.580 --> 00:14:29.059 a bit but keep the core restrictions in place. 00:14:29.440 --> 00:14:31.519 They seem genuinely concerned about potential 00:14:31.519 --> 00:14:33.740 rights violations. Right. Let's change gears 00:14:33.740 --> 00:14:36.399 completely now. Let's look at the shifting sands. 00:14:36.559 --> 00:14:39.559 in the US Senate races. Just a reminder, we're 00:14:39.559 --> 00:14:41.320 only hitting the races where there's been some 00:14:41.320 --> 00:14:43.419 actual meaningful news lately, so if we don't 00:14:43.419 --> 00:14:46.100 mention your state, that's probably why. First 00:14:46.100 --> 00:14:48.940 stop, Georgia. We had Representative Mike Collins 00:14:48.940 --> 00:14:51.360 launching his campaign with an ad that misspelled 00:14:51.360 --> 00:14:54.940 Georgia. Oof. Not the best start. Maybe not. 00:14:55.460 --> 00:14:57.919 But after Governor Kemp decided not to run, Collins 00:14:57.919 --> 00:15:00.480 is seen by some as maybe the GOP's best shot. 00:15:00.840 --> 00:15:03.340 How does his jumping in shake up that primary? 00:15:03.759 --> 00:15:05.860 Well, it sets up what's likely to be a pretty 00:15:05.860 --> 00:15:08.019 bruising primary against Representative Buddy 00:15:08.019 --> 00:15:09.600 Carter. They're both probably going to try and 00:15:09.600 --> 00:15:11.539 out -Trump each other, you know, be the Trumpiest. 00:15:11.720 --> 00:15:13.899 Which might work in a primary, but maybe not 00:15:13.899 --> 00:15:16.259 the general. That's the risk for the GOP, especially 00:15:16.259 --> 00:15:19.269 in Georgia. Meanwhile, the incumbent, Senator 00:15:19.269 --> 00:15:21.889 John Ossoff, the Democrat, is sitting pretty 00:15:21.889 --> 00:15:24.090 comfortably right now, over $15 million in the 00:15:24.090 --> 00:15:26.750 bank, and polls show him leading hypothetical 00:15:26.750 --> 00:15:29.870 matchups against both Collins and Carter. So 00:15:29.870 --> 00:15:32.629 that internal GOP fight could definitely help 00:15:32.629 --> 00:15:35.990 Ossoff. OK, over to Kentucky. The Republican 00:15:35.990 --> 00:15:37.570 primary there sounds like it's already getting 00:15:37.570 --> 00:15:40.090 nasty. Nate Morris announced he was running, 00:15:40.210 --> 00:15:42.990 did it on Don Jr.'s podcast, and apparently other 00:15:42.990 --> 00:15:45.029 Republicans immediately jumped on him, calling 00:15:45.029 --> 00:15:48.200 him a closet liberal. Yeah, the knives seem to 00:15:48.200 --> 00:15:50.559 be out already. Senator McConnell's preferred 00:15:50.559 --> 00:15:53.000 successor is Daniel Cameron, but reports suggest 00:15:53.000 --> 00:15:54.980 Cameron's fundraising is kind of headed in the 00:15:54.980 --> 00:15:56.919 wrong direction. Not raising enough money. Seems 00:15:56.919 --> 00:15:58.759 that way, especially compared to Representative 00:15:58.759 --> 00:16:01.179 Annie Barr, who apparently has over $6 million 00:16:01.179 --> 00:16:03.919 already banked. Yeah. It really raises that classic 00:16:03.919 --> 00:16:06.320 question, how much does an establishment endorsement 00:16:06.320 --> 00:16:10.139 matter compared to, you know, grassroots appeal 00:16:10.139 --> 00:16:13.840 or maybe Trump support and cold hard cash? Barr 00:16:13.840 --> 00:16:16.679 looks strong financially. Interesting. Now, Maine, 00:16:17.399 --> 00:16:21.059 Senator Susan Collins. The news here is a pretty 00:16:21.059 --> 00:16:23.159 significant drop in her approval rating among 00:16:23.159 --> 00:16:26.080 Maine voters. Down 12 points net approval in 00:16:26.080 --> 00:16:29.019 just three months. Went from slightly positive 00:16:29.019 --> 00:16:31.940 plus three to notably negative negative nine. 00:16:32.419 --> 00:16:34.700 She's even trailing a hypothetical Democrat by 00:16:34.700 --> 00:16:37.600 nine points in polls. That's a big swing. That 00:16:37.600 --> 00:16:39.820 is a really stark shift. It shows how quickly 00:16:39.820 --> 00:16:41.740 things can change even for someone like Collins, 00:16:41.820 --> 00:16:44.059 who's been there a long time. A 12 point net 00:16:44.059 --> 00:16:46.320 drop is substantial. It definitely suggests she's 00:16:46.320 --> 00:16:48.799 got some work to do to shore up her base and 00:16:48.799 --> 00:16:50.860 puts her on the defensive early on. Big news 00:16:50.860 --> 00:16:53.500 out of North Carolina. Former Governor Roy Cooper, 00:16:53.919 --> 00:16:56.159 a Democrat, is officially running for Senate. 00:16:56.600 --> 00:16:58.789 The Democrats apparently really wanted him. He 00:16:58.789 --> 00:17:01.730 was bagged, is the term used. And unlike Collins 00:17:01.730 --> 00:17:04.509 in Georgia, he did spell North Carolina correctly 00:17:04.509 --> 00:17:06.809 in his launch ad. He did. And the other big news 00:17:06.809 --> 00:17:08.809 was his fundraising. He pulled in three point 00:17:08.809 --> 00:17:10.950 four million dollars in just the first 24 hours 00:17:10.950 --> 00:17:13.150 after announcing. That's a very strong start. 00:17:13.369 --> 00:17:15.349 Huge. What effect did his entry have on the race? 00:17:15.630 --> 00:17:18.450 It immediately changes the landscape. Representative 00:17:18.450 --> 00:17:20.829 Wiley Nicholl, another Democrat. dropped out 00:17:20.829 --> 00:17:23.170 right away. It probably made Representative Don 00:17:23.170 --> 00:17:25.910 Davis another potential Dem candidate rethink 00:17:25.910 --> 00:17:28.730 things, too. On the Republican side, Trump's 00:17:28.730 --> 00:17:31.650 latest preference seems to be RNC chair Michael 00:17:31.650 --> 00:17:34.690 Whatley. But early polls show Cooper leading 00:17:34.690 --> 00:17:37.250 Whatley. Cooper's entry makes this a top tier 00:17:37.250 --> 00:17:39.829 race to watch. OK, so Democrats got their guy 00:17:39.829 --> 00:17:43.269 in North Carolina. Now, it seems Senate Majority 00:17:43.269 --> 00:17:45.930 Leader Chuck Schumer is putting pressure on Ohio. 00:17:46.470 --> 00:17:48.470 He's trying to convince former Democratic Senator 00:17:48.470 --> 00:17:51.680 Sherrod Brown to run again. Yeah, Brown is widely 00:17:51.680 --> 00:17:54.519 seen as the Democrats' best, maybe only real, 00:17:54.660 --> 00:17:57.059 hope to flip that seat back. The current Republican 00:17:57.059 --> 00:17:59.859 Senator, John Husted, has a potential vulnerability. 00:18:00.039 --> 00:18:02.000 What's that? He was appointed to the seat, not 00:18:02.000 --> 00:18:04.460 elected initially, and historically, appointed 00:18:04.460 --> 00:18:06.619 senators only win their first election about 00:18:06.619 --> 00:18:08.579 half the time. It's not guaranteed, but it makes 00:18:08.579 --> 00:18:10.400 them potentially more vulnerable than someone 00:18:10.400 --> 00:18:12.480 who's already won a statewide race for that specific 00:18:12.480 --> 00:18:15.960 office. So can Brown, a popular former incumbent, 00:18:16.279 --> 00:18:18.400 overcome the state's leanings against an appointed 00:18:18.400 --> 00:18:20.990 incumbent? question for Ohio. Let's hop down 00:18:20.990 --> 00:18:23.690 to South Carolina. Now, the Democratic win there 00:18:23.690 --> 00:18:26.519 is let's be honest. Pretty unlikely. So the real 00:18:26.519 --> 00:18:28.980 drama is on the Republican side. Could Senator 00:18:28.980 --> 00:18:32.240 Lindsey Graham actually lose his primary? His 00:18:32.240 --> 00:18:34.559 challenger is Paul Danz, who's linked to Project 00:18:34.559 --> 00:18:38.180 2025. Right. Graham has this reputation sometimes 00:18:38.180 --> 00:18:41.039 called low spine rating by critics for shifting 00:18:41.039 --> 00:18:43.960 his positions. But he also has an incredibly 00:18:43.960 --> 00:18:46.460 good track record of winning reelection. The 00:18:46.460 --> 00:18:48.559 issue for him is he has occasionally pushed back 00:18:48.559 --> 00:18:50.720 against Donald Trump. And the Meggie base doesn't 00:18:50.720 --> 00:18:53.859 forget that. Not usually, no. Dans, on the other 00:18:53.859 --> 00:18:56.180 hand, is presenting himself as completely all 00:18:56.180 --> 00:18:58.740 in for Trump. So this primary could really boil 00:18:58.740 --> 00:19:00.960 down to Trump's endorsement. But Trump also cares 00:19:00.960 --> 00:19:03.160 a lot about his batting average, making sure 00:19:03.160 --> 00:19:05.420 the candidates he endorses actually win. So he 00:19:05.420 --> 00:19:08.460 might play it safe. He might maybe endorse both 00:19:08.460 --> 00:19:10.680 Dan's and Graham, or neither, just to protect 00:19:10.680 --> 00:19:13.599 his record. Dan's as clear as path is probably 00:19:13.599 --> 00:19:16.339 if he's the only one Trump endorses. Otherwise, 00:19:16.599 --> 00:19:19.480 Graham's incumbency, name recognition, and frankly, 00:19:19.880 --> 00:19:22.920 his huge campaign war chest will be very, very 00:19:22.920 --> 00:19:25.380 difficult for Dan to overcome. OK, last one, 00:19:25.640 --> 00:19:29.460 Texas. Senator John Cornyn. People have noticed 00:19:29.460 --> 00:19:31.740 him kind of veering sharply, you know, well. 00:19:31.920 --> 00:19:34.599 very Trumpy direction recently, like leading 00:19:34.599 --> 00:19:36.819 the call for a special prosecutor to investigate 00:19:36.819 --> 00:19:40.660 Barack Obama. What's behind that shift? It looks 00:19:40.660 --> 00:19:43.319 like pure political survival, frankly. His primary 00:19:43.319 --> 00:19:46.359 challenger is Attorney General Ken Paxton. Paxton 00:19:46.359 --> 00:19:48.799 is very much aligned with Trump despite facing 00:19:48.799 --> 00:19:51.859 a lot of his own ethical scandals. Wildly corrupt 00:19:51.859 --> 00:19:54.440 is a term sometimes used. Indeed. And Paxton 00:19:54.440 --> 00:19:57.539 is just absolutely crushing Cornyn in the primary 00:19:57.539 --> 00:19:59.779 polls right now. We're talking leads of 10, sometimes 00:19:59.779 --> 00:20:02.680 over 20 points. So Cornyn is clearly scrambling 00:20:02.680 --> 00:20:04.799 to appeal to that Trump base. Trying to stop 00:20:04.799 --> 00:20:06.640 the bleeding. Exactly. But it might be too late. 00:20:06.819 --> 00:20:08.700 Interestingly, you hear that Democrats are almost 00:20:08.700 --> 00:20:11.400 praying that Paxton wins the primary. What is 00:20:11.400 --> 00:20:14.220 that? Their bet is that while Paxton might be 00:20:14.220 --> 00:20:16.759 acceptable to hardcore Republican primary voters 00:20:16.759 --> 00:20:19.920 in Texas, maybe even preferred, the broader Texas 00:20:19.920 --> 00:20:22.599 electorate in a general election might balk at 00:20:22.599 --> 00:20:25.779 voting for someone they see as as a, quote, Trumpy 00:20:25.779 --> 00:20:28.539 sleazeball. It's a gamble, but they think Paxton 00:20:28.539 --> 00:20:30.859 gives them a better shot at an upset than Cornyn 00:20:30.859 --> 00:20:34.299 would. Wow. OK. So that's quite a journey we've 00:20:34.299 --> 00:20:37.380 taken today. We've gone from pulling apart trade 00:20:37.380 --> 00:20:39.829 rhetoric to see what's really underneath. Yeah, 00:20:40.029 --> 00:20:42.130 navigating some complex legal fights involving 00:20:42.130 --> 00:20:45.470 Ghislaine Maxwell, that controversial above confirmation. 00:20:45.670 --> 00:20:47.450 And then mapping out all those moving pieces 00:20:47.450 --> 00:20:49.390 in the Senate races across the country. Right. 00:20:49.390 --> 00:20:51.730 And the whole point of digging into all these 00:20:51.730 --> 00:20:54.849 sources, really sifting through them, was hopefully 00:20:54.849 --> 00:20:57.990 to get you beyond just the quick takes, the superficial 00:20:57.990 --> 00:21:00.170 headlines. Yeah. To try and uncover some of those 00:21:00.170 --> 00:21:02.710 crucial details, look at the motivations behind 00:21:02.710 --> 00:21:04.990 the scenes, give you context that maybe wasn't 00:21:04.990 --> 00:21:08.009 obvious at first glance, hopefully help you look 00:21:08.009 --> 00:21:11.069 a bit deeper. Exactly. Empower you to ask those 00:21:11.069 --> 00:21:13.950 next questions. Which kind of leads to a final 00:21:13.950 --> 00:21:16.950 thought, doesn't it? You know, in a world where 00:21:16.950 --> 00:21:19.769 frameworks get passed off as done deals, where 00:21:19.769 --> 00:21:22.269 vague tweets can hint at giant conspiracies, 00:21:22.529 --> 00:21:24.990 and where political optics often seem to matter 00:21:24.990 --> 00:21:28.509 more than the reality underneath, how do we, 00:21:28.730 --> 00:21:32.109 just as citizens, trying to stay informed, keep 00:21:32.109 --> 00:21:33.890 telling the difference? How do we separate the 00:21:33.890 --> 00:21:36.769 real substance from the, well, the carefully 00:21:36.769 --> 00:21:40.789 crafted illusion? Hmm. That's a really good question 00:21:40.789 --> 00:21:43.410 to keep asking. It is. And it's a journey we 00:21:43.410 --> 00:21:44.650 hope you'll keep taking with us.