WEBVTT 00:00:00.000 --> 00:00:03.299 Welcome to the deep dive. This is where we really 00:00:03.299 --> 00:00:05.740 try to cut through all that noise, the information 00:00:05.740 --> 00:00:08.019 overload. Yeah, exactly. We take the sources 00:00:08.019 --> 00:00:10.480 you send us, articles, research notes, your own 00:00:10.480 --> 00:00:12.720 thoughts, and distill them. Right. We pull out 00:00:12.720 --> 00:00:14.759 the critical insights, the stuff you really need 00:00:14.759 --> 00:00:17.079 to know. Our goal, really, is to find those key 00:00:17.079 --> 00:00:19.019 nuggets, maybe some surprising facts, and help 00:00:19.019 --> 00:00:21.539 you connect the dots. Because often these topics 00:00:21.539 --> 00:00:24.640 seem separate, but they definitely impact our 00:00:24.640 --> 00:00:27.199 world in connected ways. Absolutely. So today, 00:00:27.199 --> 00:00:29.559 we're looking at the Middle East, particularly 00:00:29.559 --> 00:00:32.399 the dynamics there, a big international trade 00:00:32.399 --> 00:00:35.520 deal, and, well, some domestic political stuff 00:00:35.520 --> 00:00:38.520 that's been stirring things up. So the mission 00:00:38.520 --> 00:00:40.700 for you listening is pretty straightforward. 00:00:41.729 --> 00:00:44.590 understand where things stand right now, maybe 00:00:44.590 --> 00:00:46.750 grasp the motivations, which can be surprising, 00:00:47.189 --> 00:00:49.509 and figure out what it all means for you. Okay, 00:00:49.670 --> 00:00:52.109 let's unpack this. We should probably start with 00:00:52.109 --> 00:00:55.850 the humanitarian crisis in Gaza. Well, by all 00:00:55.850 --> 00:00:58.409 accounts, it's gotten brutally worse. And we 00:00:58.409 --> 00:00:59.990 have to begin with a perspective from a listener, 00:01:00.210 --> 00:01:03.649 DE in Lancaster, Pennsylvania. They shared some 00:01:03.649 --> 00:01:07.299 notes, and it's... It's powerful. Hmm DE wrote 00:01:07.299 --> 00:01:09.599 I just saw some of the pictures of the starving 00:01:09.599 --> 00:01:11.920 Palestinian children and all I could think was 00:01:11.920 --> 00:01:14.299 How is this different from the emaciated Jews 00:01:14.299 --> 00:01:16.500 looking out between the barbed wire at one of 00:01:16.500 --> 00:01:18.480 the Nazi concentration camps? That's a strong 00:01:18.480 --> 00:01:21.379 comparison It is they continue the circumstances 00:01:21.379 --> 00:01:23.260 might be slightly different, but I can't see 00:01:23.260 --> 00:01:26.400 how the desired goal can be any different Does 00:01:26.400 --> 00:01:30.439 any Israeli really believe that if Benjamin Netanyahu 00:01:30.439 --> 00:01:34.150 ever decides to end this war? The Palestinians 00:01:34.150 --> 00:01:36.950 will be so utterly tamed and defeated that they'll 00:01:36.950 --> 00:01:39.590 look on the Israelis as the good guys. That's 00:01:39.590 --> 00:01:42.230 a heavy question. Yeah. This kind of deliberate 00:01:42.230 --> 00:01:44.870 cruelty is only radicalizing the survivors to 00:01:44.870 --> 00:01:47.609 perpetuate the cycle of violence. And DE was 00:01:47.609 --> 00:01:49.909 very clear. They condemned the October 7th attacks 00:01:49.909 --> 00:01:52.829 strongly, but then said, you know, it's become 00:01:52.829 --> 00:01:54.909 your family for an eye and a village for a tooth. 00:01:55.530 --> 00:01:57.849 And worried about infants and children being 00:01:57.849 --> 00:01:59.689 punished for things they had absolutely no part 00:01:59.689 --> 00:02:05.069 in. That note really sets a stark scene and it 00:02:05.069 --> 00:02:06.969 leads into the broader context, doesn't it? It 00:02:06.969 --> 00:02:09.569 does. You know, Secretary Blinken, Antony Blinken, 00:02:09.949 --> 00:02:12.389 he suggested that both sides think they are right. 00:02:12.620 --> 00:02:16.099 and maybe more profoundly, that both sides are 00:02:16.099 --> 00:02:19.860 right. Interesting framing. Well, think about 00:02:19.860 --> 00:02:22.060 it from Israel's side. They've been close to 00:02:22.060 --> 00:02:24.259 a two -state solution before, like during the 00:02:24.259 --> 00:02:28.400 Clinton years, right? Only to have Hamas basically 00:02:28.400 --> 00:02:30.879 blow things up, sometimes literally. Right. And 00:02:30.879 --> 00:02:32.719 when Israel pulled back from Gaza previously, 00:02:32.939 --> 00:02:35.960 Hamas just filled that vacuum. Every time okay, 00:02:36.099 --> 00:02:38.319 but then conversely you look at the civilians 00:02:38.319 --> 00:02:41.000 in Gaza They've lived under conditions that well 00:02:41.000 --> 00:02:43.639 many describe as almost colonial for decades 00:02:43.639 --> 00:02:46.819 Yeah decades and that's led directly to the just 00:02:46.819 --> 00:02:49.500 deplorable conditions You see now and a lot of 00:02:49.500 --> 00:02:51.379 that responsibility you have to say falls on 00:02:51.379 --> 00:02:54.099 the current Israeli regime's policies And this 00:02:54.099 --> 00:02:56.159 is where it gets really complicated because the 00:02:56.159 --> 00:02:58.909 motivations for the conflict continuing They're 00:02:58.909 --> 00:03:01.289 not always what you'd expect. Our sources point 00:03:01.289 --> 00:03:04.710 to these almost perverse incentives that actually 00:03:04.710 --> 00:03:06.990 keep it going. For Hamas, well, they're getting 00:03:06.990 --> 00:03:10.530 massive attention for its cause, right? Plus 00:03:10.530 --> 00:03:13.189 a big recruitment boost and funding. Net on the 00:03:13.189 --> 00:03:16.090 other side. For Netanyahu, if this war ends, 00:03:16.770 --> 00:03:19.949 his governing coalition probably collapses. And 00:03:19.949 --> 00:03:22.710 that leads directly to his potential trial. So 00:03:22.710 --> 00:03:26.560 his political survival is... tied to the war 00:03:26.560 --> 00:03:28.639 continuing. It seems that way. It highlights 00:03:28.639 --> 00:03:31.439 how these internal political pressures can just 00:03:31.439 --> 00:03:34.259 bizarrely work against peace, even with the immense 00:03:34.259 --> 00:03:36.719 human cost. We should add some nuance there. 00:03:36.919 --> 00:03:39.840 It's not just about Netanyahu himself. OK. Despite 00:03:39.840 --> 00:03:42.069 the controversies around him, he still has. You 00:03:42.069 --> 00:03:44.830 know, fairly broad support from the Israeli public. 00:03:44.909 --> 00:03:46.990 That includes people who might not like him personally, 00:03:47.129 --> 00:03:49.490 but they support shaking things up or they specifically 00:03:49.490 --> 00:03:52.349 back his goal of wiping out Hamas. And the polls 00:03:52.349 --> 00:03:55.069 reflect this division. Oh, absolutely. Look at 00:03:55.069 --> 00:03:57.509 this Haaretz poll. That's a major liberal paper 00:03:57.509 --> 00:04:00.289 in Israel from late May. It showed 82 percent 00:04:00.289 --> 00:04:03.389 of Israelis want to expel all Gazans. 82 percent. 00:04:03.530 --> 00:04:06.330 And 47 percent support killing all Palestinians 00:04:06.330 --> 00:04:09.659 in Gaza. That's stark. Contrast that with pure 00:04:09.659 --> 00:04:13.360 research, very respected, nonpartisan, just days 00:04:13.360 --> 00:04:16.860 later. Only 21 % of Israelis think that Israel 00:04:16.860 --> 00:04:19.120 in a Palestinian state can coexist peacefully. 00:04:19.579 --> 00:04:22.839 Only 21%. These numbers show how deeply entrenched 00:04:22.839 --> 00:04:26.259 things are. It makes any path forward just incredibly 00:04:26.259 --> 00:04:29.939 difficult. And then into this... this incredibly 00:04:29.939 --> 00:04:33.680 complex situation steps Donald Trump. We know 00:04:33.680 --> 00:04:36.199 something like, what, 15 presidents before him 00:04:36.199 --> 00:04:38.939 tried and failed. And you could argue they were 00:04:38.939 --> 00:04:42.220 all, well, more skilled diplomatically than Trump. 00:04:42.240 --> 00:04:44.339 That's probably fair to say. His main goal seems 00:04:44.339 --> 00:04:47.079 pretty clear. Be clear, he ended the war, you 00:04:47.079 --> 00:04:49.500 know, get that Nobel Peace Prize like Obama did. 00:04:49.680 --> 00:04:51.620 He's framed it that way, hasn't he? Like it's 00:04:51.620 --> 00:04:54.000 a trivially simple problem for a great dealmaker. 00:04:54.500 --> 00:04:56.959 Exactly. But you have to wonder, does he really 00:04:56.959 --> 00:04:59.100 believe that, given, you know, his track record 00:04:59.100 --> 00:05:01.199 on foreign affairs knowledge and maybe a tendency 00:05:01.199 --> 00:05:04.339 to dilute himself? Well, initially, the thinking 00:05:04.339 --> 00:05:06.699 was, OK, he can't make a deal, so he'll just 00:05:06.699 --> 00:05:09.040 fall back on pandering to his base. Which means? 00:05:09.220 --> 00:05:12.500 Which means removing any and all American restraints 00:05:12.500 --> 00:05:16.160 on Israel. And he seemed to be going that way, 00:05:16.639 --> 00:05:20.139 right? Pulled U .S. negotiators out, told reporters 00:05:20.139 --> 00:05:22.339 Hamas was intractable. Israel's going to have 00:05:22.339 --> 00:05:25.060 to finish the job. Classic Trump move, maybe. 00:05:25.439 --> 00:05:28.199 But then just yesterday, something shifted. We're 00:05:28.199 --> 00:05:31.480 calling it a 140, not quite a 180. OK, a 140. 00:05:31.480 --> 00:05:34.579 What happened? He totally contradicted Netanyahu, 00:05:34.779 --> 00:05:36.939 said flat out, there's no starvation in Gaza 00:05:36.939 --> 00:05:40.459 and you can't fake that. Huh. So denying the 00:05:40.459 --> 00:05:42.480 humanitarian crisis that DE was writing about. 00:05:42.920 --> 00:05:45.379 Sort of, but then he immediately pivoted. He 00:05:45.379 --> 00:05:46.920 was quoted saying, we're going to be getting 00:05:46.920 --> 00:05:49.160 some good, strong food. We can save a lot of 00:05:49.160 --> 00:05:52.540 people. Wait, so no starvation, but we need to 00:05:52.540 --> 00:05:54.399 send food to save people. That doesn't quite 00:05:54.399 --> 00:05:57.040 add up. Exactly. It's contradictory. It's a very 00:05:57.040 --> 00:05:59.740 curious shift. It's definitely not a full reversal 00:05:59.740 --> 00:06:02.060 because he still seems to want Hamas bombed. 00:06:02.100 --> 00:06:04.720 Right. But the reality is you can't really separate 00:06:04.720 --> 00:06:07.300 the two issues cleanly, can you? I mean, it's 00:06:07.300 --> 00:06:09.399 not like Hamas is in one place and the starving 00:06:09.399 --> 00:06:11.759 Gazans are in another. Good point. If you bomb 00:06:11.759 --> 00:06:13.500 Hamas heavily, you're going to hit civilians. 00:06:14.079 --> 00:06:17.420 If you send in food for the starving, well, some 00:06:17.420 --> 00:06:19.000 of that food is inevitably going to end up with 00:06:19.000 --> 00:06:21.180 Hamas. There's no easy way around that practical 00:06:21.180 --> 00:06:26.170 challenge. In this kind of Whiplash isn't unique 00:06:26.170 --> 00:06:28.550 to this issue with Trump, is it? It feels like 00:06:28.550 --> 00:06:31.129 his special -of -the -day foreign policy approach. 00:06:31.350 --> 00:06:33.350 Yeah, like what we saw with Russia and Ukraine 00:06:33.350 --> 00:06:35.649 recently. First, this 50 -day deadline for peace 00:06:35.649 --> 00:06:38.290 he announced. Right. And now, suddenly, it's 00:06:38.290 --> 00:06:40.350 slashed by almost a month. Putin's got just 10 00:06:40.350 --> 00:06:43.329 or 12 days. It keeps everyone off balance. Constant 00:06:43.329 --> 00:06:46.529 shifts. OK, so how is all this playing out domestically 00:06:46.529 --> 00:06:49.050 in the U .S.? Well, the political ground is definitely 00:06:49.050 --> 00:06:51.170 shifting that CNN's arrest poll you mentioned 00:06:51.170 --> 00:06:53.629 earlier. It's pretty clear only 23 percent of 00:06:53.629 --> 00:06:56.029 Americans now feel that Israel's actions are 00:06:56.029 --> 00:06:58.230 fully justified. Twenty three percent. That's 00:06:58.230 --> 00:07:00.790 a big drop. A huge drop down. Twenty seven points 00:07:00.790 --> 00:07:03.209 from October seven. Twenty twenty three. Wow. 00:07:03.629 --> 00:07:05.870 Republicans still mostly back Israel strongly, 00:07:06.430 --> 00:07:09.170 but independents have largely jumped ship. Only 00:07:09.170 --> 00:07:11.810 14 percent of them think Israel is fully justified. 00:07:12.050 --> 00:07:14.629 Independence are key. Absolutely. And Democrats, 00:07:15.029 --> 00:07:17.230 they're really coalescing around an Israel skeptical 00:07:17.230 --> 00:07:20.689 position. Just 7 % of Democrats say Israel's 00:07:20.689 --> 00:07:24.149 actions are fully justified. 7%. These numbers, 00:07:24.329 --> 00:07:26.949 they really change the political calculus for 00:07:26.949 --> 00:07:30.230 the pro -Israel position in the US. It's reshaping 00:07:30.230 --> 00:07:33.209 alliances, strategies, everything. So wrapping 00:07:33.209 --> 00:07:37.410 up this first segment, the Israel -Gaza situation 00:07:37.410 --> 00:07:40.209 is, I mean, there's no other way to put it, a 00:07:40.209 --> 00:07:44.889 giant mess. Yeah. humanitarian geopolitical domestic 00:07:44.889 --> 00:07:48.329 politics. It's messy on all fronts. And honestly, 00:07:48.449 --> 00:07:50.769 even watching this closely, it's incredibly hard 00:07:50.769 --> 00:07:53.230 to predict what any of the main players will 00:07:53.230 --> 00:07:56.029 do next. Very unpredictable. OK, from that incredibly 00:07:56.029 --> 00:07:58.410 complex geopolitical situation, let's shift gears. 00:07:58.730 --> 00:08:01.629 Let's talk about this tentative EU trade deal 00:08:01.629 --> 00:08:03.589 announced over the weekend. Right. And tentative 00:08:03.589 --> 00:08:05.490 is the key word there, isn't it? It really is. 00:08:05.509 --> 00:08:07.449 There's a big gap between tentative and final. 00:08:07.529 --> 00:08:09.610 It might not actually happen. And that uncertainty, 00:08:09.790 --> 00:08:11.790 it's definitely causing some frustration in Europe. 00:08:11.889 --> 00:08:13.870 What's interesting is that a lot of leaders of 00:08:13.870 --> 00:08:16.329 EU nations are upset. Why is that? The general 00:08:16.329 --> 00:08:19.269 feeling seems to be that Trump basically took 00:08:19.269 --> 00:08:21.970 European Commission President Ursula von der 00:08:21.970 --> 00:08:25.449 Leyen to the cleaners. Ouch. Yeah. And sources 00:08:25.449 --> 00:08:28.470 say even the far right in Europe, you know, a 00:08:28.470 --> 00:08:31.009 block some might expect to be unified, is split. 00:08:31.790 --> 00:08:34.929 Italy's Maloney likes the deal, apparently. But 00:08:34.929 --> 00:08:37.629 Hungary's Orban hates it. And most of the rest 00:08:37.629 --> 00:08:40.210 of the far right seem to agree with Orban. That 00:08:40.210 --> 00:08:42.470 internal split is fascinating. Tells you something 00:08:42.470 --> 00:08:44.909 about the deal's reception. Definitely. Now here's 00:08:44.909 --> 00:08:46.990 a detail from the European side that kind of 00:08:46.990 --> 00:08:50.840 jumped out at me. This promise... to invest $600 00:08:50.840 --> 00:08:53.840 billion in the United States. It sounds huge. 00:08:53.960 --> 00:08:56.700 It does sound huge. But digging deeper, two senior 00:08:56.700 --> 00:08:58.940 EU Commission officials clarified something important. 00:08:59.559 --> 00:09:02.320 That money, if it materializes, would come entirely 00:09:02.320 --> 00:09:04.519 from private companies and not from the public 00:09:04.519 --> 00:09:08.110 sector. So not government funds. Exactly. Which 00:09:08.110 --> 00:09:10.590 makes it feel, well, largely performative, right? 00:09:10.889 --> 00:09:13.129 Companies invest if it makes business sense anyway. 00:09:13.350 --> 00:09:15.370 It's more like an ambition than a solid commitment. 00:09:15.509 --> 00:09:17.929 That context is crucial. And it's not like everyone's 00:09:17.929 --> 00:09:20.370 happy on the U .S. side either, especially the 00:09:20.370 --> 00:09:22.750 auto industry. Right. What's the issue there? 00:09:23.049 --> 00:09:25.370 Well, dealers who sell European cars might see 00:09:25.370 --> 00:09:27.850 prices go up, maybe less than feared, but still 00:09:27.850 --> 00:09:31.279 up. Meanwhile, U .S. carmakers, many building 00:09:31.279 --> 00:09:34.159 cars in Mexico, remember they still face 25 % 00:09:34.159 --> 00:09:36.779 tariffs going into the EU. While European cars 00:09:36.779 --> 00:09:41.759 coming here face 15 %? Exactly, 15%. So U .S. 00:09:41.799 --> 00:09:43.919 companies are at a disadvantage compared to the 00:09:43.919 --> 00:09:46.440 Europeans on tariffs. That could mean fewer car 00:09:46.440 --> 00:09:49.379 sales overall, maybe impact jobs. Okay, so let's 00:09:49.379 --> 00:09:51.299 break this down sector by sector. Give people 00:09:51.299 --> 00:09:53.220 a clearer picture of the winners and losers, 00:09:53.580 --> 00:09:55.940 or potential ones anyway. Let's start with energy. 00:09:56.120 --> 00:09:59.139 Okay, energy. The EU supposedly agreed to buy 00:09:59.139 --> 00:10:03.159 $750 billion in oil and LNG from the U .S. And 00:10:03.159 --> 00:10:05.840 huge number. Huge, but experts are calling it 00:10:05.840 --> 00:10:08.580 unworkable. To hit that, the EU would need to 00:10:08.580 --> 00:10:11.340 basically triple its U .S. energy imports. Triple. 00:10:11.620 --> 00:10:14.299 Yeah. And U .S. firms would have to divert all 00:10:14.299 --> 00:10:16.399 their energy flows worldwide toward the block. 00:10:16.519 --> 00:10:18.919 That's just not realistic. Plus, critically, 00:10:19.179 --> 00:10:21.399 imports are firmly in the hands of private firms. 00:10:21.600 --> 00:10:23.399 Governments can't just force companies to buy. 00:10:23.460 --> 00:10:26.379 So largely symbolic again. Seems that way. OK, 00:10:26.500 --> 00:10:30.279 next. Autos. We touched on this. U .S. tariffs 00:10:30.279 --> 00:10:33.740 down to 15 percent. EUs go to zero. Right, but 00:10:33.740 --> 00:10:36.080 the devil is in the details, especially around 00:10:36.080 --> 00:10:38.080 aligning standards, which is always tricky. And 00:10:38.080 --> 00:10:40.620 the German car lobby isn't happy. No, they see 00:10:40.620 --> 00:10:43.100 it as a bad deal. There are estimates that up 00:10:43.100 --> 00:10:46.379 to 70 ,000 jobs across European car companies 00:10:46.379 --> 00:10:49.039 and their suppliers could be lost. Why? Because 00:10:49.039 --> 00:10:51.100 automakers might just move production to the 00:10:51.100 --> 00:10:53.000 U .S. to get around those remaining tariffs. 00:10:53.120 --> 00:10:55.740 Which could mean, for you the consumer, Maybe 00:10:55.740 --> 00:10:58.120 fewer European car choices or different pricing 00:10:58.120 --> 00:11:00.600 down the road. Could be. All right. Aviation. 00:11:00.700 --> 00:11:02.659 This sounds more positive. Yeah, this looks like 00:11:02.659 --> 00:11:06.759 a win. A zero for zero tariffs deal on all aircraft 00:11:06.759 --> 00:11:08.960 and component parts. Why is that significant? 00:11:09.399 --> 00:11:11.779 Well, it avoids another massive trade war like 00:11:11.779 --> 00:11:14.419 that 17 year fight between Airbus and Boeing. 00:11:14.639 --> 00:11:17.259 Oh, right. That was huge. Exactly. So this helps 00:11:17.259 --> 00:11:19.820 keep things stable for plane makers, airlines, 00:11:20.299 --> 00:11:22.990 the whole supply chain. Good news there. What 00:11:22.990 --> 00:11:24.629 about pharmaceuticals? There seemed to be some 00:11:24.629 --> 00:11:26.929 confusion initially. There was. Trump said it 00:11:26.929 --> 00:11:29.289 wasn't included. Von der Leyen said it was. Total 00:11:29.289 --> 00:11:31.990 contradiction. So what's the actual deal? Officials 00:11:31.990 --> 00:11:35.769 clarified. Tariffs are zero for now. But there's 00:11:35.769 --> 00:11:39.090 a catch. A top tariff rate of 15 percent could 00:11:39.090 --> 00:11:41.950 take effect once the U .S. finishes its Section 00:11:41.950 --> 00:11:45.330 232 investigation into the sector. Section 232. 00:11:45.389 --> 00:11:47.190 That's the national security review thing. That's 00:11:47.190 --> 00:11:49.509 the one. It basically hangs a potential threat 00:11:49.509 --> 00:11:52.549 of tariffs over the sector. Generic drug companies, 00:11:52.730 --> 00:11:54.830 with their tight margins, are probably the most 00:11:54.830 --> 00:11:57.590 vulnerable. Could mean pricier meds for some 00:11:57.590 --> 00:12:01.460 people. How about technology? A mixed bag. There's 00:12:01.460 --> 00:12:04.500 a zero for zero tariff on chip equipment, which 00:12:04.500 --> 00:12:07.279 is good for firms like ASML. Big Dutch company, 00:12:07.279 --> 00:12:09.600 right? Right. But Von der Leyen also committed 00:12:09.600 --> 00:12:13.100 to buying US AI chips. That's seen as a setback 00:12:13.100 --> 00:12:15.360 for Europeans pushing for more technological 00:12:15.360 --> 00:12:18.480 sovereignty, keeps them reliant on US tech. So 00:12:18.480 --> 00:12:21.620 a win for US chip makers, less so for European 00:12:21.620 --> 00:12:24.259 tech independence. Pretty much. And digital regulation, 00:12:24.460 --> 00:12:27.340 things like data privacy, AI rules. Interestingly, 00:12:27.949 --> 00:12:30.409 Nothing specific in the deal on that. It seems 00:12:30.409 --> 00:12:33.230 the EU successfully called the Trump administration's 00:12:33.230 --> 00:12:36.090 bluff, meaning they defended their right to regulate 00:12:36.090 --> 00:12:38.830 tech companies as they see fit. Despite a lot 00:12:38.830 --> 00:12:41.070 of pressure from U .S. big tech, which usually 00:12:41.070 --> 00:12:43.970 pushes for less regulation, they held their ground. 00:12:43.970 --> 00:12:46.330 OK. What about defense spending? Trump always 00:12:46.330 --> 00:12:49.149 talks about that. He does. He touted big buys 00:12:49.149 --> 00:12:51.750 of U .S. gear, but EU officials kind of pushed 00:12:51.750 --> 00:12:54.389 back, saying arms deals weren't formally part 00:12:54.389 --> 00:12:57.009 of this negotiation. So no firm commitment. No 00:12:57.009 --> 00:12:59.649 formal commitment to buy U .S. weapons specifically. 00:13:00.269 --> 00:13:03.250 But European defense budgets are rising across 00:13:03.250 --> 00:13:05.909 the board, and that will directly or indirectly 00:13:05.909 --> 00:13:08.710 benefit the United States. Whether it's buying 00:13:08.710 --> 00:13:11.490 U .S. systems or components, European defense 00:13:11.490 --> 00:13:13.809 firms are probably a bit uneasy about their market 00:13:13.809 --> 00:13:16.529 share. Got it. Steel. That's always contentious. 00:13:16.909 --> 00:13:19.169 Yeah. It looks like a return to quotas, probably, 00:13:19.230 --> 00:13:22.250 with a steep 50 % tariff on anything above the 00:13:22.250 --> 00:13:24.590 quota. Details are still being worked out. OK. 00:13:24.750 --> 00:13:26.669 But there's talk of creating a ring fence with 00:13:26.669 --> 00:13:29.950 the US against, quote, unfairly made steel from 00:13:29.950 --> 00:13:33.669 China, Indonesia, Egypt, Turkey. So targeting 00:13:33.669 --> 00:13:36.769 specific countries. Seems like it, which suggests 00:13:36.769 --> 00:13:39.490 China might be the real loser in this part of 00:13:39.490 --> 00:13:41.629 the deal and attempt to counter what they see 00:13:41.629 --> 00:13:46.070 as unfair practices. Interesting. One drink affects 00:13:46.070 --> 00:13:48.570 everyone's grocery bill. Potentially. Certain 00:13:48.570 --> 00:13:50.850 agricultural products could get zero tariffs 00:13:50.850 --> 00:13:53.309 both ways. Things considered non -sensitive, 00:13:53.590 --> 00:13:56.210 like U .S. nuts, pet food, maybe even bison might 00:13:56.210 --> 00:13:58.789 get easier access to the EU market. And the sensitive 00:13:58.789 --> 00:14:03.090 stuff. Ah, things like U .S. beef, spirits, wine. 00:14:03.570 --> 00:14:06.090 Those are still being negotiated, so maybe your 00:14:06.090 --> 00:14:08.350 encoded cheese gets cheaper, maybe not your bourbon. 00:14:08.529 --> 00:14:12.190 We'll see. Okay, last one. Investment. That $600 00:14:12.190 --> 00:14:14.840 billion figure again. Right. And as we said, 00:14:15.080 --> 00:14:17.820 seems largely performative. It's private sector 00:14:17.820 --> 00:14:20.360 money, not really a major government concession. 00:14:20.440 --> 00:14:22.019 Could still boost the U .S. economy, though. 00:14:22.159 --> 00:14:23.960 It could, yeah. But the question is whether it 00:14:23.960 --> 00:14:26.440 might dent EU growth if those investments happen 00:14:26.440 --> 00:14:29.240 here instead of within Europe. Too early to tell. 00:14:29.840 --> 00:14:31.480 So wrapping up this segment on the trade deal, 00:14:32.000 --> 00:14:35.139 the main takeaway is trade deals are tough. Really 00:14:35.139 --> 00:14:37.759 tough. And honestly, often, even the experts 00:14:37.759 --> 00:14:40.279 negotiating them don't know how things will turn 00:14:40.279 --> 00:14:42.940 out until it actually plays out in the real world. 00:14:43.039 --> 00:14:46.200 A lot of uncertainty still. OK, let's bring it 00:14:46.200 --> 00:14:48.179 home now, shifting to domestic politics here 00:14:48.179 --> 00:14:52.980 in the US, starting with the ongoing Epstein 00:14:52.980 --> 00:14:55.940 -Files story. Right. Notice it's our third item 00:14:55.940 --> 00:14:59.399 today, not the lead. Focus has been reduced enough 00:14:59.399 --> 00:15:02.600 maybe. Progress. Ah, perhaps. But it's definitely 00:15:02.600 --> 00:15:04.759 still simmering. You've got Donald Trump continuing 00:15:04.759 --> 00:15:07.600 these casual mentions about possibly pardoning 00:15:07.600 --> 00:15:09.799 Dislaine Maxwell. Still talking about that. Yep. 00:15:10.440 --> 00:15:12.639 And just yesterday, her lawyers filed a brief 00:15:12.639 --> 00:15:14.580 with the Supreme Court. They're arguing she's 00:15:14.580 --> 00:15:16.600 innocent and should have been covered by Epstein's 00:15:16.600 --> 00:15:20.000 original plea deal. It really feels like a coordinated 00:15:20.000 --> 00:15:22.940 effort, a two -pronged plan meant to create the 00:15:22.940 --> 00:15:25.120 narrative that pardoning Maxwell would not be 00:15:25.120 --> 00:15:27.399 shocking, laying the groundwork, perhaps. Interesting 00:15:27.399 --> 00:15:29.860 strategy. And there's this whole media wars dynamic 00:15:29.860 --> 00:15:31.679 playing out too, isn't there? It's quite striking. 00:15:31.960 --> 00:15:35.419 It really is. You've got, on one hand, the traditional 00:15:35.419 --> 00:15:38.919 right -wing media like Fox News. They seem to 00:15:38.919 --> 00:15:41.899 be trying to help the administration, mostly 00:15:41.899 --> 00:15:45.220 by ignoring the Epstein story or jumping on distractors 00:15:45.220 --> 00:15:46.919 the White House puts out. Trying to change the 00:15:46.919 --> 00:15:48.940 subject. Exactly, but then you have other right 00:15:48.940 --> 00:15:51.039 -wing media, particularly the podcasters, and 00:15:51.039 --> 00:15:53.100 even more particularly, Joe Rogan. Big inflows 00:15:53.100 --> 00:15:55.840 there. Huge. And they've been hammering on the 00:15:55.840 --> 00:15:58.059 Epstein story almost without interruption, and 00:15:58.059 --> 00:16:00.720 they're largely ignoring those distractors. So 00:16:00.720 --> 00:16:03.220 it's a real test, isn't it? Which part of the 00:16:03.220 --> 00:16:06.019 right -wing media actually holds sway sets the 00:16:06.019 --> 00:16:08.659 agenda for conservatives these days? A very interesting 00:16:08.659 --> 00:16:11.460 test, indeed. Who's really the king? And Trump 00:16:11.460 --> 00:16:13.419 himself tried one of those distractors over the 00:16:13.419 --> 00:16:15.860 weekend. Kind of Hail Mary Pass. Yeah, he did. 00:16:16.320 --> 00:16:18.419 Posted on social media trying to stir up talk 00:16:18.419 --> 00:16:21.600 about corrupt Democrats, he alleged these huge 00:16:21.600 --> 00:16:24.019 illegal payments to black celebrities like $11 00:16:24.019 --> 00:16:28.299 million to Beyoncé, $3 million to Oprah, $600K 00:16:28.299 --> 00:16:31.240 to Al Sharpton for doing absolutely nothing. 00:16:31.659 --> 00:16:34.580 sound fantastical. They are. They're fantasies. 00:16:35.259 --> 00:16:38.440 The reality is any payments made were for legitimate 00:16:38.440 --> 00:16:41.500 things, like expenses related to convention appearances, 00:16:41.860 --> 00:16:44.919 which Ironically, parties have to cover. Not 00:16:44.919 --> 00:16:47.419 paying would be the illegal contribution. So 00:16:47.419 --> 00:16:49.480 the whole premise was flawed. Completely flawed. 00:16:49.539 --> 00:16:51.919 It was a pretty clumsy attempt at deflection, 00:16:51.919 --> 00:16:54.779 really. And it seems like that particular trial 00:16:54.779 --> 00:16:57.440 balloon turned out to be made of lead. And so 00:16:57.440 --> 00:16:59.659 it landed with a thud. Yeah, didn't get much 00:16:59.659 --> 00:17:01.379 traction. And it just highlights this pattern 00:17:01.379 --> 00:17:04.619 we're seeing. Trump keeps revising his Epstein 00:17:04.619 --> 00:17:07.480 narrative as things come out. How so? Well, last 00:17:07.480 --> 00:17:09.700 week, he said he never does drawings. Now it's 00:17:09.700 --> 00:17:13.039 only buildings, not nude women. Last week, the 00:17:13.039 --> 00:17:14.619 falling out with Epstein was over a business 00:17:14.619 --> 00:17:17.779 deal. Now he says it's because Epstein kept poaching 00:17:17.779 --> 00:17:20.240 staff from Mar -a -Lago. Shifting stories. Right. 00:17:20.359 --> 00:17:22.720 He did stick to denying he ever went to Epstein's 00:17:22.720 --> 00:17:26.200 island, but his wording was memorable. He said, 00:17:26.259 --> 00:17:28.720 I never had the privilege of going to his island. 00:17:28.859 --> 00:17:31.579 Privilege. Yeah. And quite a few folks pounced 00:17:31.579 --> 00:17:34.099 on that, calling it a privilege to visit a place 00:17:34.099 --> 00:17:37.940 linked to sex trafficking. It struck many as 00:17:37.940 --> 00:17:40.890 odd, to say the least. Yeah. That's not a great 00:17:40.890 --> 00:17:42.589 phrasing. Yeah, and there's also been this drip 00:17:42.589 --> 00:17:45.670 drip drip of other quotes surfacing right about 00:17:45.670 --> 00:17:47.809 his daughters Yes things he said over the years 00:17:47.809 --> 00:17:52.789 that some find Creepy Verifiable things often 00:17:52.789 --> 00:17:55.789 on tape like what like wondering aloud how large 00:17:55.789 --> 00:17:57.769 his daughter Tiffany's breasts would be when 00:17:57.769 --> 00:18:00.750 she was just an infant or Back in 2003 about 00:18:00.750 --> 00:18:04.130 Ivanka who's 22 then saying my daughter Ivanka. 00:18:04.130 --> 00:18:06.150 She's six feet tall. She's got the best body 00:18:06.319 --> 00:18:08.819 Right. Those are documented. They are. They contribute 00:18:08.819 --> 00:18:12.480 to a certain perception. There was also an unverified, 00:18:12.700 --> 00:18:15.859 quote, snopes looked into about sexual attraction, 00:18:15.980 --> 00:18:19.359 but the key ones are often verifiable. OK. Anything 00:18:19.359 --> 00:18:21.240 else on Epstein before we move on? Just briefly, 00:18:21.440 --> 00:18:23.420 the Wall Street Journal also reported that Bill 00:18:23.420 --> 00:18:25.559 Clinton apparently had a page in that book of 00:18:25.559 --> 00:18:28.220 messages for Epstein's 50th birthday, too. Ah, 00:18:28.420 --> 00:18:30.940 OK. Good to know. All right. Let's put it finally 00:18:30.940 --> 00:18:34.460 to Ron DeSantis. Remember, 2023, he was the rising 00:18:34.460 --> 00:18:37.509 star. The supposed future of the GOP. Feels like 00:18:37.509 --> 00:18:39.750 a long time ago now, doesn't it? It really does. 00:18:40.089 --> 00:18:42.930 His political path since then. It reminds me 00:18:42.930 --> 00:18:45.009 of that worm -in -a -hole analogy. You know, 00:18:45.130 --> 00:18:47.130 for every one foot he moves forward, he seems 00:18:47.130 --> 00:18:50.009 to slip about four feet back. Huh. That's vivid. 00:18:50.490 --> 00:18:53.049 Any examples? Well, look at his feud with Joe 00:18:53.049 --> 00:18:56.339 Grotters. Grutter's is a big Trump ally in Florida. 00:18:56.660 --> 00:18:59.119 DeSantis tried to punish him, cut state funding 00:18:59.119 --> 00:19:01.640 pork from his district, seemed like a power play. 00:19:01.920 --> 00:19:04.619 OK, classic political hardball. Right. But here's 00:19:04.619 --> 00:19:07.259 the twist. Trump just announced Grutter's is 00:19:07.259 --> 00:19:10.900 his pick to be the new RNC chair. The chairman 00:19:10.900 --> 00:19:12.960 of the Republican National Committee. That's 00:19:12.960 --> 00:19:15.400 the one. The person who will likely oversee the 00:19:15.400 --> 00:19:18.279 whole 20 -28 Republican primary process. Ooh. 00:19:18.490 --> 00:19:21.130 That's awkward for a dissentist. Extremely awkward. 00:19:21.690 --> 00:19:24.410 So what does this tell us about his future? He's 00:19:24.410 --> 00:19:26.490 really piled up these self -inflicted wounds. 00:19:26.809 --> 00:19:28.990 Now he's alienated the fellow who will probably 00:19:28.990 --> 00:19:31.349 oversee the next primary he might want to run 00:19:31.349 --> 00:19:33.250 in. He seems to have closed off his options, 00:19:33.450 --> 00:19:36.450 his lane for 2028. Pretty much. He can't really 00:19:36.450 --> 00:19:39.109 run in the main Trump Meiji lane. He's ticked 00:19:39.109 --> 00:19:41.930 off too many insiders like Grutter's. The maybe 00:19:41.930 --> 00:19:44.369 Epstein Meiji lane seems like a long shot for 00:19:44.369 --> 00:19:46.789 him. And the sane Republican lane. His rhetoric 00:19:46.789 --> 00:19:48.990 and actions, particularly the culture war stuff, 00:19:49.150 --> 00:19:51.630 have probably cooked him with moderate Republicans 00:19:51.630 --> 00:19:53.849 and donors needed for that lane. He's really 00:19:53.849 --> 00:19:56.150 boxed himself in. Doesn't seem like there's much 00:19:56.150 --> 00:19:58.589 room for him to maneuver for a presidential run 00:19:58.589 --> 00:20:02.029 next time around. Wow. OK. And so that brings 00:20:02.029 --> 00:20:05.069 us to the end of another deep dive. We've gone 00:20:05.069 --> 00:20:09.450 through volatile geopolitical tensions. pretty 00:20:09.450 --> 00:20:12.430 complex trade negotiations, and some high stakes 00:20:12.430 --> 00:20:14.549 political drama here at home. Yeah, and it's 00:20:14.549 --> 00:20:16.309 a good reminder, isn't it? These things that 00:20:16.309 --> 00:20:19.970 seem separate, Gaza, the EU deal, domestic politics, 00:20:20.109 --> 00:20:22.930 they're all connected, part of the same big messy 00:20:22.930 --> 00:20:25.849 picture of our world. Absolutely. They form this 00:20:25.849 --> 00:20:28.109 intricate tapestry, you could say, of our global 00:20:28.109 --> 00:20:31.339 and national landscape. Understanding these forces, 00:20:31.519 --> 00:20:33.599 even with all the messiness and the contradictions 00:20:33.599 --> 00:20:35.539 we talked about, that's really the key to being 00:20:35.539 --> 00:20:37.319 genuinely well informed, isn't it? It really 00:20:37.319 --> 00:20:40.000 is. There's real value in seeing the different 00:20:40.000 --> 00:20:42.140 perspectives, questioning your own assumptions, 00:20:42.599 --> 00:20:45.220 especially when the information feels contradictory 00:20:45.220 --> 00:20:48.440 or, you know, really emotionally charged. So 00:20:48.440 --> 00:20:50.180 as we leave you today, here's something to think 00:20:50.180 --> 00:20:52.819 about. What new aha moments did you have listening 00:20:52.819 --> 00:20:55.339 today? What challenged maybe your preconceived 00:20:55.339 --> 00:20:58.299 ideas about how power really works in Washington 00:20:58.299 --> 00:21:01.779 or around the world? And maybe more importantly, 00:21:02.000 --> 00:21:03.240 what will you do with that understanding?