WEBVTT 00:00:00.000 --> 00:00:03.240 Welcome to the deep dive. Our mission here is, 00:00:03.240 --> 00:00:05.400 well, pretty clear. We want to cut through all 00:00:05.400 --> 00:00:07.599 the noise. It's straight to the point. Exactly. 00:00:07.960 --> 00:00:10.619 Straight to the essential insights from quite 00:00:10.619 --> 00:00:12.640 a stack of recent sources we've been looking 00:00:12.640 --> 00:00:17.179 at. Today, we're taking a, hmm, a multifaceted 00:00:17.179 --> 00:00:20.820 look at some recent political strategies, key 00:00:20.820 --> 00:00:24.420 policy impacts, and just the ever -shifting landscape 00:00:24.420 --> 00:00:27.039 of public opinion. And it's really striking, 00:00:27.039 --> 00:00:29.960 you know, how these events that seem kind of 00:00:29.960 --> 00:00:33.200 separate on the surface, they're not just isolated 00:00:33.200 --> 00:00:36.159 things. When you zoom out a bit, they start to 00:00:36.159 --> 00:00:38.439 reveal these important patterns. They're interconnected. 00:00:38.939 --> 00:00:40.759 And that tells us a lot about the current political 00:00:40.759 --> 00:00:42.939 climate, why it actually matters to you, the 00:00:42.939 --> 00:00:45.539 listener. OK, so let's unpack this, then. Looking 00:00:45.539 --> 00:00:48.420 at the landscape right now, one of the, I guess, 00:00:48.520 --> 00:00:50.700 most glaring things jumping out from our sources 00:00:50.700 --> 00:00:53.899 is this political distraction playbook, as we're 00:00:53.899 --> 00:00:56.880 calling it. We're diving into the ongoing Epstein 00:00:56.880 --> 00:00:59.820 affair. And, you know, the administration's pretty 00:00:59.820 --> 00:01:02.320 clear attempts to shift the narrative away from 00:01:02.320 --> 00:01:04.760 that. It seems like that initial tactic, the 00:01:04.760 --> 00:01:07.000 sort of nothing to see here line. Yeah. That 00:01:07.000 --> 00:01:09.340 just, well, it failed, according to the source. 00:01:09.640 --> 00:01:13.090 And land. No. So the sources detail. a whole 00:01:13.090 --> 00:01:14.989 variety of distraction strategies they tried 00:01:14.989 --> 00:01:18.030 next, starting with legal moves. Ah, the legal 00:01:18.030 --> 00:01:20.090 tactics. Yeah, the see you in court approach. 00:01:20.450 --> 00:01:22.689 Remember the Trump administration's lawsuit against 00:01:22.689 --> 00:01:25.129 the Wall Street Journal? Oh, yeah. Demanding. 00:01:25.349 --> 00:01:27.469 What was that reported figure? Something like 00:01:27.469 --> 00:01:30.810 eleventy bajillion dollars. Yeah, something deliberately 00:01:30.810 --> 00:01:34.200 absurd like that. Huge damages claimed. And there's 00:01:34.200 --> 00:01:36.980 a detail here that's pretty noteworthy. The judge 00:01:36.980 --> 00:01:40.319 assigned is Darren Gales. He's gay, black, and 00:01:40.319 --> 00:01:44.500 an Obama appointee. And it feels like judicial 00:01:44.500 --> 00:01:47.019 deja vu, actually. Because he handled another 00:01:47.019 --> 00:01:50.760 Trump case. Exactly. Gales previously oversaw 00:01:50.760 --> 00:01:53.359 Trump's $50 million suit against Michael Cohen, 00:01:53.819 --> 00:01:57.120 which was dropped right before discovery. So 00:01:57.120 --> 00:02:00.079 the expectation node in the sources is that this 00:02:00.079 --> 00:02:02.349 WSJ suit might just you know, follow the same 00:02:02.349 --> 00:02:05.810 path, dropped for similar pre -discovery reasons. 00:02:06.310 --> 00:02:08.449 And the key takeaway here, I think, is that the 00:02:08.449 --> 00:02:10.889 White House isn't just stopping at lawsuits. 00:02:11.289 --> 00:02:14.710 They're also trying to maybe punish the paper 00:02:14.710 --> 00:02:17.330 in other ways. How so? Well, for instance, a 00:02:17.330 --> 00:02:19.409 Wall Street Journal reporter, Tarini Pardee, 00:02:19.750 --> 00:02:22.229 had her credential pulled for an upcoming UK 00:02:22.229 --> 00:02:24.849 trip. And the thing is, she wasn't even involved 00:02:24.849 --> 00:02:27.389 in the Epstein story. Interesting. So it makes 00:02:27.389 --> 00:02:30.719 you wonder, right? What's the actual goal there? 00:02:30.860 --> 00:02:33.319 Is it just punishing the journal or is it about 00:02:33.319 --> 00:02:35.900 sending a you know a broader message? Mm -hmm 00:02:35.900 --> 00:02:38.979 or just creating another news cycle beyond the 00:02:38.979 --> 00:02:41.300 legal stuff the administration also went for 00:02:41.300 --> 00:02:44.300 a Blame game distraction right starting with 00:02:44.300 --> 00:02:49.090 the classic but Barack Obama Ah, yes. DNI Tulsi 00:02:49.090 --> 00:02:50.849 Gabbard, the Director of National Intelligence. 00:02:50.990 --> 00:02:53.009 Yeah, she sent that criminal referral to the 00:02:53.009 --> 00:02:54.810 Department of Justice. Something about Russian 00:02:54.810 --> 00:02:57.909 interference in 2016 and the investigations around 00:02:57.909 --> 00:03:00.590 it. Yeah, and the sources really suggest this 00:03:00.590 --> 00:03:02.930 was, well, let's just say remarkably unserious. 00:03:03.229 --> 00:03:05.189 Well, first, as Trump himself has often argued 00:03:05.189 --> 00:03:08.150 in other situations, government employees, especially 00:03:08.150 --> 00:03:10.210 presidents, have pretty broad leeway in their 00:03:10.210 --> 00:03:13.430 official duties. Okay. Second, Gabbard didn't 00:03:13.430 --> 00:03:15.870 even really identify an actual crime. It was 00:03:15.870 --> 00:03:19.009 vague stuff, like a years -long coup against 00:03:19.009 --> 00:03:21.479 someone who wasn't even in office in 2016. That 00:03:21.479 --> 00:03:25.719 term coup seems misplaced there. It does. And 00:03:25.719 --> 00:03:27.860 third, you've got the basic issue of statutes 00:03:27.860 --> 00:03:30.620 of limitations, you know, three to five years 00:03:30.620 --> 00:03:33.340 for most federal crimes, eight for terrorism, 00:03:33.819 --> 00:03:35.780 unless it's like, you know, capital offense or 00:03:35.780 --> 00:03:38.219 tax stuff. So way past the deadline. Pretty much 00:03:38.219 --> 00:03:40.479 this whole Obama gambit. It just went nowhere, 00:03:40.680 --> 00:03:42.759 which is probably why Gabbard shifted gears pretty 00:03:42.759 --> 00:03:44.719 quick. And speaking of shifting gears, the next 00:03:44.719 --> 00:03:48.300 move was the but Joe Biden approach. Speaker 00:03:48.300 --> 00:03:50.939 Mike Johnson put out that video right with of 00:03:50.939 --> 00:03:53.639 Democrats defending Biden's mental acuity. Yeah, 00:03:53.759 --> 00:03:56.539 and framing it as the largest political cover 00:03:56.539 --> 00:03:58.639 -up in U .S. history. Quite the claim. Quite 00:03:58.639 --> 00:04:00.379 the claim, indeed. And it wasn't just Biden. 00:04:00.780 --> 00:04:03.719 Trump also took aim at Senator Adam Schiff. Right. 00:04:04.080 --> 00:04:06.840 Schiff targeted him over, what was it, an alleged 00:04:06.840 --> 00:04:09.960 misrepresentation of his primary residence for 00:04:09.960 --> 00:04:12.240 mortgage rates. That's the one. You know, the 00:04:12.240 --> 00:04:14.360 effectiveness of that particular attack seems 00:04:14.360 --> 00:04:17.540 questionable. I mean, Schiff knows he's constantly 00:04:17.540 --> 00:04:20.629 under scrutiny. I think. It seems highly doubtful 00:04:20.629 --> 00:04:22.529 there was anything really wrong there. He said 00:04:22.529 --> 00:04:25.310 he had a lawyer check at all. It was fine. And 00:04:25.310 --> 00:04:28.129 honestly, a lower mortgage rate for a US senator, 00:04:28.449 --> 00:04:30.250 you could justify that pretty easily. It's probably 00:04:30.250 --> 00:04:32.189 easier to get money back from them. Plus the 00:04:32.189 --> 00:04:35.430 irony. Oh, the irony is thick. Trump criticizing 00:04:35.430 --> 00:04:38.550 someone else's real estate borrowing. Yeah. So 00:04:38.550 --> 00:04:41.589 as a distraction, that shift story just sort 00:04:41.589 --> 00:04:45.430 of fizzled. Pretty much. It's a bit complicated, 00:04:45.529 --> 00:04:48.389 you know, mortgage rates. And while Trump clearly 00:04:48.389 --> 00:04:51.410 dislikes Schiff intensely. A personal bugaboo, 00:04:51.449 --> 00:04:53.829 as the source puts it. But he doesn't really 00:04:53.829 --> 00:04:56.670 fire up the base in the same way, maybe a broader 00:04:56.670 --> 00:04:59.149 deep state narrative might. It didn't catch on. 00:04:59.410 --> 00:05:02.870 OK, so beyond the blame game, we also saw the 00:05:02.870 --> 00:05:05.790 enemies at the gate strategy. This involved pulling 00:05:05.790 --> 00:05:08.569 back National Guard troops and Marines from Los 00:05:08.569 --> 00:05:11.339 Angeles. after they'd been sent there for immigration 00:05:11.339 --> 00:05:13.819 crackdowns. Yeah, and what's interesting is the 00:05:13.819 --> 00:05:17.300 shift in focus then to New York City. Right, 00:05:17.399 --> 00:05:20.480 the plan to flood the zone with ICE agents there. 00:05:20.620 --> 00:05:24.579 And the sources kind of analyze why NYC might 00:05:24.579 --> 00:05:26.740 be the target. There are fewer Latinos there 00:05:26.740 --> 00:05:29.560 compared to LA. OK. And many of the Latinos who 00:05:29.560 --> 00:05:33.180 are there are Puerto Rican citizens, which... 00:05:33.129 --> 00:05:35.610 you know, could lead to more false arrests, potentially 00:05:35.610 --> 00:05:38.290 bad PR if they're not careful. But on the other 00:05:38.290 --> 00:05:42.069 hand, maybe they see New York's mayor, Eric Adams, 00:05:42.490 --> 00:05:46.069 as more pliant, as one source put it, compared 00:05:46.069 --> 00:05:48.550 to Ellie's Karen Bass, who really pushed back. 00:05:48.709 --> 00:05:50.829 So maybe just looking for a fresh target, new 00:05:50.829 --> 00:05:53.110 headlines. Could be. Maybe hoping to stir up 00:05:53.110 --> 00:05:55.029 some new outrage somewhere else. And there were 00:05:55.029 --> 00:05:57.879 the culture wars. Always a go -to. Yep. Trump 00:05:57.879 --> 00:06:00.180 demanded the Cleveland Guardians baseball team 00:06:00.180 --> 00:06:02.360 and the Washington Commanders football team switch 00:06:02.360 --> 00:06:04.639 back to their old names. Indians and Redskins. 00:06:04.759 --> 00:06:07.319 Right. And the response is pretty swift. The 00:06:07.319 --> 00:06:09.759 Guardians said no, basically immediately. And 00:06:09.759 --> 00:06:12.040 the Commander. Their new leadership seems uninterested, 00:06:12.560 --> 00:06:15.480 but they have to be a bit more careful, you know, 00:06:15.680 --> 00:06:17.980 with stadium deals potentially in the works. 00:06:18.199 --> 00:06:20.220 But the real kicker here is the irony again, 00:06:20.279 --> 00:06:22.939 isn't it? Oh, absolutely. People all over social 00:06:22.939 --> 00:06:27.199 media dug up Trump's own tweet from like 12 years 00:06:27.199 --> 00:06:29.540 ago. What did it say? Basically advising that 00:06:29.540 --> 00:06:31.540 a president shouldn't be telling teams to change 00:06:31.540 --> 00:06:34.199 their names because the country have far bigger 00:06:34.199 --> 00:06:37.860 problems. Wow. That does highlight maybe a miscalculation 00:06:37.860 --> 00:06:39.920 about how people would react this time. Seems 00:06:39.920 --> 00:06:43.240 like it. So after the whole Obama gambit didn't 00:06:43.240 --> 00:06:46.579 work out, Gabbard pivoted again, her final shift. 00:06:46.759 --> 00:06:49.939 We're calling it, OK, we will release the files. 00:06:50.399 --> 00:06:53.420 Right. Announcing the release of, what, 230 ,000 00:06:53.420 --> 00:06:55.579 pages of files related to the Martin Luther King 00:06:55.579 --> 00:06:58.459 Jr. assassination. OK. But zooming out, the sources 00:06:58.459 --> 00:07:01.160 assess this, and, well, these files are almost 00:07:01.160 --> 00:07:04.060 60 years old. Not exactly breaking news. No. 00:07:04.420 --> 00:07:06.540 And they weren't really highly anticipated by 00:07:06.540 --> 00:07:09.420 anyone, it seems. In fact, Baronee's King, MLK's 00:07:09.420 --> 00:07:11.779 daughter, actually opposed releasing them on 00:07:11.779 --> 00:07:14.379 social media. Huh. So what was the thinking there, 00:07:14.540 --> 00:07:16.949 supposedly? That's the question the sources raise. 00:07:17.509 --> 00:07:19.790 I mean, the sheer lack of connection to current 00:07:19.790 --> 00:07:22.889 events suggests either, you know, real desperation. 00:07:23.389 --> 00:07:26.250 Or just completely misjudging what might actually 00:07:26.250 --> 00:07:28.990 distract people. Exactly. A profound disconnect. 00:07:29.110 --> 00:07:32.029 Maybe raising questions about, well, judgment. 00:07:32.389 --> 00:07:34.610 So if we sum up the effectiveness of all these 00:07:34.610 --> 00:07:37.310 different distractions... The sources seem pretty 00:07:37.310 --> 00:07:39.529 clear. Yeah, none of them really seem to be working. 00:07:39.910 --> 00:07:42.189 Right -wing media is still just wall -to -wall 00:07:42.189 --> 00:07:44.629 Epstein coverage. Which probably signals some 00:07:44.629 --> 00:07:46.629 real concern inside the White House. Definitely. 00:07:46.870 --> 00:07:49.410 And this connects to Speaker Mike Johnson's actions, 00:07:49.449 --> 00:07:51.990 right, with the Epstein -Files vote in the House. 00:07:52.089 --> 00:07:54.370 Yeah, exactly. He's pushed the vote back until 00:07:54.370 --> 00:07:57.889 September. The reason given. The upcoming recess. 00:07:58.110 --> 00:08:00.819 But that creates problems. Oh, yeah. Several. 00:08:01.519 --> 00:08:03.720 For one, a lot of Republican members actually 00:08:03.720 --> 00:08:05.560 want that vote. They don't want to spend the 00:08:05.560 --> 00:08:08.360 next month back home getting hammered with Epstein 00:08:08.360 --> 00:08:11.560 questions. Can't blame them. No. And some have 00:08:11.560 --> 00:08:13.220 apparently made it clear they'll try to force 00:08:13.220 --> 00:08:16.459 votes on it anyway, you know, by adding release 00:08:16.459 --> 00:08:18.839 the files amendments to basically everything 00:08:18.839 --> 00:08:21.399 else that comes up. So that leaves the House 00:08:21.399 --> 00:08:24.339 stuck. Pretty much. The only option seems to 00:08:24.339 --> 00:08:27.800 be just do nothing this week. twiddle their thumbs, 00:08:27.980 --> 00:08:30.420 as one source put it, before getting out of DC 00:08:30.420 --> 00:08:33.279 for 39 days. And that sets up potential issues 00:08:33.279 --> 00:08:36.399 down the line. Big time. This gridlock, combined 00:08:36.399 --> 00:08:38.240 with other factors, could easily lead toward 00:08:38.240 --> 00:08:40.440 a government shutdown by October 1st if they 00:08:40.440 --> 00:08:43.559 don't get a budget passed. Wow. OK. So with all 00:08:43.559 --> 00:08:46.179 these internal pressures, these failed distractions, 00:08:46.419 --> 00:08:50.100 how are the actual core policies playing out 00:08:50.100 --> 00:08:52.240 with the public? What do the polls say? What's 00:08:52.240 --> 00:08:54.360 the real world impact? Let's maybe transition 00:08:54.360 --> 00:08:57.039 to the economy first. Look at the U .S. tourist 00:08:57.039 --> 00:09:00.539 industry. Just to set the stage, it's huge. The 00:09:00.539 --> 00:09:03.179 U .S. generates almost, what, $2 .4 trillion 00:09:03.179 --> 00:09:05.879 in tourist revenue every year? And over a trillion 00:09:05.879 --> 00:09:08.080 of that is from foreign tourism. That's a staggering 00:09:08.080 --> 00:09:10.299 amount of money. It really is. And our sources 00:09:10.299 --> 00:09:13.100 point out there were already things negatively 00:09:13.100 --> 00:09:15.960 impacting tourism before this latest move. Like 00:09:15.960 --> 00:09:18.620 what? Well, you know, past talk about annexing 00:09:18.620 --> 00:09:21.000 Canada or buying Greenland, the ongoing trade 00:09:21.000 --> 00:09:24.059 wars. Right. Even reports about the risk of detention 00:09:24.059 --> 00:09:26.899 for people from certain countries or just having, 00:09:26.899 --> 00:09:28.919 you know, critical memes on your phone when you 00:09:28.919 --> 00:09:31.480 arrive. Stuff that doesn't exactly scream welcome. 00:09:31.940 --> 00:09:35.000 Not really. And now there's this new development. 00:09:35.299 --> 00:09:38.259 The visa integrity fee. Exactly. The White House 00:09:38.259 --> 00:09:41.659 announced this new $250 fee on top of existing 00:09:41.659 --> 00:09:45.250 visa costs. And it's imposed under the BBB authority. 00:09:45.350 --> 00:09:48.070 What does that mean exactly? Yeah. The BBB authority, 00:09:48.409 --> 00:09:50.809 it's basically a broad legislative power, often 00:09:50.809 --> 00:09:53.590 used for budget or administrative changes. And 00:09:53.590 --> 00:09:56.450 the Department of Homeland Security, DHS, has 00:09:56.450 --> 00:09:59.269 discretion in how it's applied. OK. But not everyone 00:09:59.269 --> 00:10:02.049 pays it. Right. It's important to note that countries 00:10:02.049 --> 00:10:04.289 in the visa waiver program, that's mostly European 00:10:04.289 --> 00:10:06.889 nations, they're exempt if they're just coming 00:10:06.889 --> 00:10:09.309 for a short stay. And refunds are supposedly 00:10:09.309 --> 00:10:11.960 possible. but the details are vague, involves 00:10:11.960 --> 00:10:14.899 jumping through some unspecified hoops. So what 00:10:14.899 --> 00:10:16.980 are the potential goals here, according to the 00:10:16.980 --> 00:10:19.360 sources? Why do this? Well, the sources float 00:10:19.360 --> 00:10:22.659 about four possibilities. One, maybe discourage 00:10:22.659 --> 00:10:25.700 non -Europeans, specifically from coming. Two, 00:10:26.200 --> 00:10:28.139 maybe it's about collecting extra information 00:10:28.139 --> 00:10:32.000 on those visitors. Three, maybe deterring people 00:10:32.000 --> 00:10:33.860 who overstay their visas, though the sources 00:10:33.860 --> 00:10:36.139 doubt it'd be very effective for that. And the 00:10:36.139 --> 00:10:38.490 fourth? Or... You know, maybe it's just about 00:10:38.490 --> 00:10:40.690 bringing in money for the government through 00:10:40.690 --> 00:10:43.190 fees people end up forfeiting. What really struck 00:10:43.190 --> 00:10:46.070 me here, though, is the paradox. This policy 00:10:46.070 --> 00:10:48.590 could actually hurt states that voted for the 00:10:48.590 --> 00:10:51.830 administration. How so? Well, think about the 00:10:51.830 --> 00:10:55.029 top tourism states. Florida is number two for 00:10:55.029 --> 00:10:58.330 tourism revenue. Texas is number four. Tennessee 00:10:58.330 --> 00:11:00.389 is number 10. And those are states that have 00:11:00.389 --> 00:11:02.529 generally supported this administration. Exactly. 00:11:02.629 --> 00:11:04.549 So it seems potentially counterproductive on 00:11:04.549 --> 00:11:07.149 that front. Interesting point. Let's let's pivot 00:11:07.149 --> 00:11:09.909 now to the wider view, public opinion overall, 00:11:09.909 --> 00:11:12.470 because the sources are highlighting, well, lots 00:11:12.470 --> 00:11:14.950 of bad polls for Trump. Yeah, it really underscores 00:11:14.950 --> 00:11:17.409 that difference between making promises on the 00:11:17.409 --> 00:11:19.570 campaign trail and actually governing. Definitely. 00:11:19.730 --> 00:11:22.070 The overall approval ratings, they show this 00:11:22.070 --> 00:11:25.110 consistent downward trend looking from May through 00:11:25.110 --> 00:11:28.370 July. Like the economist YouGov polls had his 00:11:28.370 --> 00:11:30.909 net disapproval going from negative five percent 00:11:30.909 --> 00:11:33.990 down to 14 percent. It's quite a drop. Significant. 00:11:34.159 --> 00:11:36.120 And the poll aggregators, the ones that average 00:11:36.120 --> 00:11:38.539 lots of polls together, they also show Trump 00:11:38.539 --> 00:11:42.139 at or near double digit disapproval now. So given 00:11:42.139 --> 00:11:44.120 those overall numbers, let's maybe drill down 00:11:44.120 --> 00:11:47.039 a bit. Look at the polling on three specific 00:11:47.039 --> 00:11:51.639 core Trump V2 .0 policies. OK, where should we 00:11:51.639 --> 00:11:55.370 start? How about the BBB? The big bad bill. Right, 00:11:55.509 --> 00:11:57.649 the BBB. Public opinion on that one is running 00:11:57.649 --> 00:12:00.389 almost two to one against it. Wow. Yeah, a recent 00:12:00.389 --> 00:12:04.850 CNNSSRS poll found 61 % disapprove, only 39 % 00:12:04.850 --> 00:12:06.970 approve. And didn't the CBO, the Congressional 00:12:06.970 --> 00:12:09.470 Budget Office, just come out with its final scoring? 00:12:09.690 --> 00:12:12.759 They did. And it projects a $3 .4 trillion increase 00:12:12.759 --> 00:12:15.720 in deficit spending over 10 years. And maybe 00:12:15.720 --> 00:12:17.980 even more impactfully, it projects that roughly 00:12:17.980 --> 00:12:19.899 10 million people are likely to lose their health 00:12:19.899 --> 00:12:21.840 insurance because of it. 10 million. That's a 00:12:21.840 --> 00:12:24.000 huge number. It is. And this brings up a really 00:12:24.000 --> 00:12:26.860 critical point from the sources. Historically, 00:12:27.100 --> 00:12:29.279 voters don't really vote based on deficits. It's 00:12:29.279 --> 00:12:32.940 too abstract. But. The idea, the very concrete 00:12:32.940 --> 00:12:35.940 reality of, I had health insurance and now I 00:12:35.940 --> 00:12:38.220 don't. That's something people understand immediately. 00:12:38.460 --> 00:12:41.080 Very relatable, very tangible. Exactly. That 00:12:41.080 --> 00:12:43.000 could be a major problem, Maria. OK, so that's 00:12:43.000 --> 00:12:46.399 the BBB. What about tariffs? Tariffs? Also pretty 00:12:46.399 --> 00:12:48.659 unpopular, similar numbers to the BBB, actually. 00:12:49.120 --> 00:12:52.980 A CBS YouGov poll shows 60 % oppose them, only 00:12:52.980 --> 00:12:55.820 40 % support. And what about inflation? People 00:12:55.820 --> 00:12:59.019 connect the tariffs to that. Seems so. That same 00:12:59.019 --> 00:13:01.279 poll found 64 percent think Trump isn't doing 00:13:01.279 --> 00:13:04.259 enough on inflation, and 62 percent believe his 00:13:04.259 --> 00:13:06.899 actions, presumably including tariffs, have already 00:13:06.899 --> 00:13:09.019 raised prices. So people are feeling it in their 00:13:09.019 --> 00:13:11.279 wallets. Apparently. And what's really interesting 00:13:11.279 --> 00:13:14.940 here is the breakdown. Harris voters. They strongly 00:13:14.940 --> 00:13:17.200 oppose the tariffs. 86 percent think they hurt 00:13:17.200 --> 00:13:19.340 the U .S. Makes sense. But even among Trump's 00:13:19.340 --> 00:13:21.710 own voters, the support is kind of soft. Only 00:13:21.710 --> 00:13:24.549 63 % think tariffs help, while a significant 00:13:24.549 --> 00:13:27.470 chunk, 27%, actually think they hurt. Almost 00:13:27.470 --> 00:13:29.830 a third of his own supporters aren't sold on 00:13:29.830 --> 00:13:32.669 a core policy. Exactly. It suggests a real vulnerability 00:13:32.669 --> 00:13:34.990 there. A core policy isn't even overwhelmingly 00:13:34.990 --> 00:13:37.870 popular with his own base. OK, EB unpopular, 00:13:38.330 --> 00:13:40.929 tariffs unpopular. What about the immigration 00:13:40.929 --> 00:13:42.750 crackdowns? This one really jumped out at me 00:13:42.750 --> 00:13:45.389 from the sources. Ah, yes. This is where it gets 00:13:45.389 --> 00:13:47.149 really interesting, as you say. There's been 00:13:47.149 --> 00:13:50.090 a major shift in approval. How major? Well, back 00:13:50.090 --> 00:13:52.629 in March. Approval for the crackdowns was at 00:13:52.629 --> 00:13:57.090 54 percent. By July, it had dropped to 44 percent. 00:13:57.129 --> 00:14:00.409 Wow, that's a 10 point drop. Wait, no, a 20 point 00:14:00.409 --> 00:14:02.970 swing if you consider approval versus disapproval 00:14:02.970 --> 00:14:06.169 change in just four months. Yeah, a really significant 00:14:06.169 --> 00:14:08.570 shift. And it aligns with broader findings from 00:14:08.570 --> 00:14:11.070 Gallup. What did Gallup find? They track the 00:14:11.070 --> 00:14:13.149 percentage of people who want immigration decreased. 00:14:13.950 --> 00:14:17.460 In early 2024, that was 55 percent. Now it's 00:14:17.460 --> 00:14:19.940 down to 30 percent. Huge drop. What's driving 00:14:19.940 --> 00:14:22.039 that? Primarily Republican voters, actually. 00:14:22.539 --> 00:14:25.360 In early 2024, 88 percent of Republicans wanted 00:14:25.360 --> 00:14:27.960 immigration reduced. Now it's 48 percent. That's 00:14:27.960 --> 00:14:30.840 a 40 point drop among Republicans alone. Incredible. 00:14:30.919 --> 00:14:33.240 It really is. And maybe the most striking Gallup 00:14:33.240 --> 00:14:35.519 result is about how people view immigrants themselves. 00:14:35.960 --> 00:14:38.379 Approval is now the highest it's ever been since 00:14:38.379 --> 00:14:41.799 they started polling this. 79 % of Americans 00:14:41.799 --> 00:14:44.279 now view immigrants as a good thing for the country. 00:14:44.779 --> 00:14:47.679 79%. That's higher than even 2014 or earlier 00:14:47.679 --> 00:14:50.200 this year. Yeah, higher than both. It's a record 00:14:50.200 --> 00:14:53.080 high. So what's the explanation for this dramatic 00:14:53.080 --> 00:14:55.899 shift on immigration? Well, the sources offer 00:14:55.899 --> 00:14:58.759 a couple of compelling possibilities. One is 00:14:58.759 --> 00:15:02.320 that maybe for some voters, immigration was kind 00:15:02.320 --> 00:15:05.460 of a proxy issue. A proxy for what? Like a way 00:15:05.460 --> 00:15:08.720 to signal general dissatisfaction with previous 00:15:08.720 --> 00:15:11.370 administrations. maybe Democrats, without getting 00:15:11.370 --> 00:15:13.769 into specifics, just general discontent. OK, 00:15:13.830 --> 00:15:15.750 that makes sense. And the other explanation. 00:15:15.850 --> 00:15:18.230 The other idea, and maybe this is more powerful, 00:15:18.690 --> 00:15:21.190 is that policies often sound good in theory, 00:15:21.370 --> 00:15:23.629 in the abstract. Like secure our borders. Exactly. 00:15:23.850 --> 00:15:26.029 That might sound appealing. But then when you 00:15:26.029 --> 00:15:28.269 see the policy actually implemented the aggressive 00:15:28.269 --> 00:15:30.610 crackdowns, the real world impacts, the families 00:15:30.610 --> 00:15:33.370 affected, it becomes much less appealing for 00:15:33.370 --> 00:15:35.309 many people. The reality bites. Something like 00:15:35.309 --> 00:15:37.830 that. The abstract idea versus the concrete consequences. 00:15:38.110 --> 00:15:40.789 So wrapping up this polling segment, the sources 00:15:40.789 --> 00:15:43.409 kind of suggest something interesting about Trump's 00:15:43.409 --> 00:15:47.990 behavior lately. What's that? That his angry, 00:15:48.169 --> 00:15:51.549 erratic behavior, as one source puts it, it might 00:15:51.549 --> 00:15:53.950 actually be a result of seeing these bad poll 00:15:53.950 --> 00:15:57.269 numbers rather than the cause of them. So the 00:15:57.269 --> 00:15:59.470 numbers are driving the behavior, not the other 00:15:59.470 --> 00:16:01.490 way around. Potentially. I mean, the picture 00:16:01.490 --> 00:16:03.169 isn't great for the administration, according 00:16:03.169 --> 00:16:05.330 to these polls. Democrats still largely oppose 00:16:05.330 --> 00:16:07.759 him. Independents mostly oppose him. And even 00:16:07.759 --> 00:16:09.799 some slippage among Republicans, as we saw with 00:16:09.799 --> 00:16:12.279 the tariffs and immigration numbers. Right. And 00:16:12.279 --> 00:16:14.840 things could potentially get worse as the full 00:16:14.840 --> 00:16:17.980 impact of policies like the BBB and the tariffs 00:16:17.980 --> 00:16:20.740 really start to hit home for people. Not to mention 00:16:20.740 --> 00:16:23.500 the Epstein scandal continuing to unfold. Exactly. 00:16:23.600 --> 00:16:26.799 Lots of headwinds. Yeah. So with all these dynamics 00:16:26.799 --> 00:16:29.220 swirling around, the failed distractions, the 00:16:29.220 --> 00:16:32.220 shifting polls. What are the kind of immediate 00:16:32.220 --> 00:16:34.559 future stakes, the political ramifications we 00:16:34.559 --> 00:16:36.620 can see right now? No, there's a very specific 00:16:36.620 --> 00:16:39.179 electoral opportunity that just opened up. Ah, 00:16:39.179 --> 00:16:41.960 right. Representative Mark Green, Republican 00:16:41.960 --> 00:16:44.440 from Tennessee. Yep. He officially resigned from 00:16:44.440 --> 00:16:47.840 the House, specifically cited the BBB becoming 00:16:47.840 --> 00:16:50.960 law as his reason. So that triggers a special 00:16:50.960 --> 00:16:53.940 election in his district, TNO7. Exactly. And 00:16:53.940 --> 00:16:55.799 this is pretty significant. It's an R plus 10 00:16:55.799 --> 00:16:58.299 district. Meaning it leans Republican by about 00:16:58.299 --> 00:17:01.299 10 points, typically. Right. But a Democratic 00:17:01.299 --> 00:17:04.599 pickup isn't completely impossible, especially 00:17:04.599 --> 00:17:06.660 in a special election environment. Is there a 00:17:06.660 --> 00:17:09.160 precedent for that kind of upset? Well, the sources 00:17:09.160 --> 00:17:12.740 point to Conor Lamb's win back in 2018. He won 00:17:12.740 --> 00:17:15.539 a special election in PA 18, which was an R plus 00:17:15.539 --> 00:17:19.079 11 district. Narrow win, but it happened. So 00:17:19.079 --> 00:17:23.400 TNO7, R plus 10, it's within the realm of possibility, 00:17:23.539 --> 00:17:26.500 maybe. It's seen as a benchmark for what's. Not 00:17:26.500 --> 00:17:29.079 impossible, let's say. A real opportunity. And 00:17:29.079 --> 00:17:30.779 we're already seeing candidates jump in. Oh yeah, 00:17:30.799 --> 00:17:32.700 the race is already heating up. On the Republican 00:17:32.700 --> 00:17:34.960 side, names like Jody Barrett, Lee Reeves, Matt 00:17:34.960 --> 00:17:37.400 Van Eps, Jason Nider mentioned. And for the Democrats. 00:17:37.640 --> 00:17:41.099 Afton Ben, Vincent Dixie, Bo Mitchell. Several 00:17:41.099 --> 00:17:43.119 familiar names from the state legislature and 00:17:43.119 --> 00:17:45.559 elsewhere. So what makes this particular special 00:17:45.559 --> 00:17:48.519 election so crucial? Well, it's a really key 00:17:48.519 --> 00:17:51.619 opportunity for Democrats to test out their messaging 00:17:51.619 --> 00:17:55.079 for the 2026 midterms. Testing messages on what? 00:17:55.289 --> 00:17:57.910 particularly around the Epstein situation, obviously, 00:17:58.269 --> 00:18:00.970 but also the BBB. This is a chance to see how 00:18:00.970 --> 00:18:03.210 effective those arguments are in a competitive 00:18:03.210 --> 00:18:05.470 district. And for you, the listener, especially 00:18:05.470 --> 00:18:08.170 if you're in Tennessee, this has direct local 00:18:08.170 --> 00:18:10.809 impact, right? Absolutely. That CBO to projection 00:18:10.809 --> 00:18:14.329 we talked about, 110 ,000 people in Tennessee 00:18:14.329 --> 00:18:17.210 expected to lose health insurance. due to the 00:18:17.210 --> 00:18:19.670 BBB. That breaks down to about 12 ,000 people 00:18:19.670 --> 00:18:22.410 per congressional district on average. Roughly, 00:18:22.450 --> 00:18:24.849 yeah. Now, most probably won't actually lose 00:18:24.849 --> 00:18:26.450 their insurance before this special election 00:18:26.450 --> 00:18:28.950 happens. Right. But the key will be how effective 00:18:28.950 --> 00:18:31.769 the Democratic nominee is at convincing voters 00:18:31.769 --> 00:18:35.029 in TNO7 that this potential loss is real. that 00:18:35.029 --> 00:18:37.150 it's coming and that it's linked to the policies 00:18:37.150 --> 00:18:39.269 they oppose. That'll be the messaging challenge. 00:18:39.410 --> 00:18:41.529 Definitely. And this resignation, Mark Green 00:18:41.529 --> 00:18:43.829 leaving, it also impacts the dynamics in the 00:18:43.829 --> 00:18:46.029 House overall, doesn't it? Oh, absolutely. Speaker 00:18:46.029 --> 00:18:47.990 Mike Johnson was already working with a razor 00:18:47.990 --> 00:18:51.210 thin majority. Now it's 219, 212. So he can barely 00:18:51.210 --> 00:18:54.390 afford any defections on votes. Exactly. He can 00:18:54.390 --> 00:18:56.809 only lose three Republicans, assuming everyone 00:18:56.809 --> 00:18:59.369 votes. Basically, Thomas Massey plus two others. 00:18:59.609 --> 00:19:02.759 Wow. That makes things like that Epstein files 00:19:02.759 --> 00:19:05.119 vote or any other potentially contentious issue 00:19:05.119 --> 00:19:07.359 where members might want to force a vote Incredibly 00:19:07.359 --> 00:19:09.480 challenging for the leadership very little room 00:19:09.480 --> 00:19:11.920 to maneuver. It really paints a picture of Congress 00:19:11.920 --> 00:19:14.940 facing some serious hurdles Yeah between the 00:19:14.940 --> 00:19:18.140 internal party pressures the slim majority the 00:19:18.140 --> 00:19:20.700 looming deadline for a budget October 1st for 00:19:20.700 --> 00:19:23.140 that potential government shutdown again, right? 00:19:23.339 --> 00:19:25.940 if they don't pass a budget or at least a continuing 00:19:25.940 --> 00:19:28.779 resolution. It really makes you wonder, why does 00:19:28.779 --> 00:19:32.559 anyone ever run for Congress again? Good question 00:19:32.559 --> 00:19:34.799 sometimes. Okay, so let's recap our deep dive 00:19:34.799 --> 00:19:38.019 today. We've looked at the administration's pretty 00:19:38.019 --> 00:19:40.680 extensive, multi -pronged efforts to distract 00:19:40.680 --> 00:19:43.119 from the Epstein affair. Efforts that seem largely 00:19:43.119 --> 00:19:45.279 unsuccessful so far, according to the sources. 00:19:45.400 --> 00:19:47.500 Right, and we've seen these really surprising 00:19:47.500 --> 00:19:51.920 shifts in public opinion on major policies, immigration 00:19:51.920 --> 00:19:54.759 tariffs, the BBB. Yeah, the public mood seems 00:19:54.759 --> 00:19:57.380 to be moving perhaps faster than anticipated. 00:19:57.519 --> 00:19:59.420 And we've touched on the immediate consequences 00:19:59.420 --> 00:20:02.680 like that special election in Tennessee and the 00:20:02.680 --> 00:20:05.079 broader legislative challenges facing a very 00:20:05.079 --> 00:20:08.180 narrowly divided house. And I think a key takeaway 00:20:08.180 --> 00:20:10.460 looking across all these sources is the sheer 00:20:10.460 --> 00:20:14.819 breadth and the rapid succession of these failed 00:20:14.819 --> 00:20:17.869 distraction attempts. What is that? suggest to 00:20:17.869 --> 00:20:20.390 you? Well it suggests maybe not just desperation 00:20:20.390 --> 00:20:23.430 but perhaps a profound misreading by the administration. 00:20:23.849 --> 00:20:27.720 A misreading of the public's current maybe capacity 00:20:27.720 --> 00:20:30.000 for political deflection. Especially when faced 00:20:30.000 --> 00:20:32.359 with a story like Epstein's. Exactly. A story 00:20:32.359 --> 00:20:34.980 that seems to cut across the usual partisan lines 00:20:34.980 --> 00:20:38.059 hits personal moral thresholds for a lot of people. 00:20:38.140 --> 00:20:39.539 It might just be harder to change the subject 00:20:39.539 --> 00:20:41.720 this time. So as we wrap up, something for you, 00:20:41.740 --> 00:20:44.319 the listener, to think about. A final provocative 00:20:44.319 --> 00:20:46.920 thought, perhaps. OK. Given this really complex 00:20:46.920 --> 00:20:48.859 interplay, we've discussed the political strategies, 00:20:49.140 --> 00:20:52.019 the shifting public opinion, the tangible impacts 00:20:52.019 --> 00:20:54.819 of these policies. How might all these current 00:20:54.819 --> 00:20:57.440 events shape things moving forward. Not just 00:20:57.440 --> 00:20:59.440 the immediate political landscape. Right. Not 00:20:59.440 --> 00:21:01.779 just the next election cycle, but maybe even 00:21:01.779 --> 00:21:04.920 the fundamental relationship between voters and 00:21:04.920 --> 00:21:07.740 the people they elect. What specific actions, 00:21:08.000 --> 00:21:10.700 what shifts in strategy or tone might you expect 00:21:10.700 --> 00:21:13.000 to see from politicians trying to navigate this 00:21:13.000 --> 00:21:15.839 environment? That's a big question to ponder. 00:21:16.019 --> 00:21:18.440 It is something to mull over. Thank you for joining 00:21:18.440 --> 00:21:19.420 us on this deep dive.