WEBVTT 00:00:00.000 --> 00:00:02.919 Welcome to the Deep Dive. We take a whole stack 00:00:02.919 --> 00:00:05.660 of recent political reporting, analyses, our 00:00:05.660 --> 00:00:08.099 own research too, and we really try to pull out 00:00:08.099 --> 00:00:10.060 the key insights for you. Yeah, make sense of 00:00:10.060 --> 00:00:13.199 it all. Exactly. Our mission today, cut through 00:00:13.199 --> 00:00:16.280 that noise, you know, make sense of all these 00:00:16.280 --> 00:00:18.600 different, sometimes contradictory stories. We 00:00:18.600 --> 00:00:21.839 want you to feel genuinely informed without getting 00:00:21.839 --> 00:00:24.859 totally swamped. Basically a shortcut to clarity. 00:00:25.579 --> 00:00:28.699 OK. Let's dive in. It's a good goal because look, 00:00:28.719 --> 00:00:30.539 the political landscape right now, it can feel 00:00:30.539 --> 00:00:32.719 like such a tangle. Right. But what's really 00:00:32.719 --> 00:00:35.799 compelling, I think, is seeing how things that 00:00:35.799 --> 00:00:39.020 seem separate, disparate events, they're often 00:00:39.020 --> 00:00:41.380 not isolated at all. They're like interconnected 00:00:41.380 --> 00:00:44.140 threads revealing bigger patterns. Exactly. Broader 00:00:44.140 --> 00:00:45.659 patterns. We're going to look at how everything 00:00:45.659 --> 00:00:49.119 from, you know, sensitive files to economic bills, 00:00:49.299 --> 00:00:51.299 even power struggles between government branches. 00:00:51.520 --> 00:00:53.719 It's all playing out at the same time. Absolutely. 00:00:54.100 --> 00:00:56.039 And let's let's kick things up. with a really 00:00:56.039 --> 00:00:59.000 prime example of how information, or maybe even 00:00:59.000 --> 00:01:01.759 the lack of information, gets used strategically. 00:01:02.100 --> 00:01:04.519 Weaponized, almost. Yeah, weaponized. We're talking 00:01:04.519 --> 00:01:06.260 about wedge issues, right? Yeah. Those topics, 00:01:06.280 --> 00:01:08.120 they're super divisive, designed to split your 00:01:08.120 --> 00:01:10.780 opponent's supporters, so some discord. And right 00:01:10.780 --> 00:01:14.140 now, the Epstein files, well, they've become 00:01:14.140 --> 00:01:16.299 this huge media thing, especially this summer. 00:01:16.359 --> 00:01:19.799 A very hot topic. Very. Ankush Khardouri, he's 00:01:19.799 --> 00:01:21.659 a former federal prosecutor and now writes for 00:01:21.659 --> 00:01:25.099 Politico Magazine. He lays out three, let's say, 00:01:25.480 --> 00:01:28.980 plausible scenarios for why these files are hitting 00:01:28.980 --> 00:01:31.260 such a nerve, especially with people close to 00:01:31.260 --> 00:01:33.340 former President Trump. It's a sharp analysis, 00:01:33.400 --> 00:01:35.560 really gets into the political thinking behind 00:01:35.560 --> 00:01:38.239 it all. So, Cardori's first scenario, he calls 00:01:38.239 --> 00:01:42.120 it the double exploit. This suggests Trump and 00:01:42.120 --> 00:01:43.599 others, they maybe knew all along, there weren't 00:01:43.599 --> 00:01:46.239 any scandalous files involving them, but they 00:01:46.239 --> 00:01:48.260 just exploited the whole Epstein tragedy anyway. 00:01:48.420 --> 00:01:51.290 For political gain? maybe financial gain too. 00:01:51.650 --> 00:01:53.890 Feeding that red meat to the base, you know, 00:01:54.010 --> 00:01:55.549 hinting at corruption that wasn't really there. 00:01:55.730 --> 00:01:58.189 Portrayed as deeply cynical, if true. Definitely. 00:01:58.650 --> 00:02:01.530 Okay, scenario two. Trump was a client? This 00:02:01.530 --> 00:02:03.950 idea suggests, well, maybe a DOJ investigation 00:02:03.950 --> 00:02:06.530 found some references linking Trump to Epstein. 00:02:06.750 --> 00:02:09.629 And it ties into claims by Michael Wolff about 00:02:09.629 --> 00:02:12.810 tape interviews with Epstein. Raising the possibility 00:02:12.810 --> 00:02:15.379 that Trump... Maybe people like Mambani, too, 00:02:15.719 --> 00:02:17.419 are desperately trying to cover something up. 00:02:17.680 --> 00:02:19.500 A potential cover -up, yeah. That's the core 00:02:19.500 --> 00:02:21.960 of that one. And then the third scenario, Cardori 00:02:21.960 --> 00:02:25.080 offers. Yeah. He calls it, they drank the Kool 00:02:25.080 --> 00:02:27.969 -Aid. This one suggests Trump and his allies, 00:02:28.669 --> 00:02:31.090 they actually genuinely believed the rumors. 00:02:31.189 --> 00:02:34.430 They thought this client list was real, wanted 00:02:34.430 --> 00:02:36.310 to use it against Democrats. Ah, so they thought 00:02:36.310 --> 00:02:39.370 they had something. Exactly. But now, Cardori 00:02:39.370 --> 00:02:42.449 suggests, they're maybe dumbfounded because their 00:02:42.449 --> 00:02:45.629 own digging found nothing. No list? Epstein didn't 00:02:45.629 --> 00:02:48.050 blackmail anyone. And so now they're kind of 00:02:48.050 --> 00:02:50.509 stuck, right, trying to explain to their base 00:02:50.509 --> 00:02:52.449 why they were pushing this thing that turned 00:02:52.449 --> 00:02:55.199 out to be, well, not there. Which is fascinating 00:02:55.199 --> 00:02:56.939 in itself. And what's really interesting now 00:02:56.939 --> 00:02:59.099 is how Democrats are just aggressively grabbing 00:02:59.099 --> 00:03:01.699 this whole narrative, using it as a potential 00:03:01.699 --> 00:03:04.699 wedge issue to try and divide Republicans. Their 00:03:04.699 --> 00:03:07.719 theme is pretty straightforward. Powerful Republican 00:03:07.719 --> 00:03:10.379 politicians are covering up the misdeeds of other 00:03:10.379 --> 00:03:13.879 powerful Republican politicians. Simple, direct. 00:03:14.099 --> 00:03:16.439 And for someone leaning towards conspiracy theories, 00:03:16.819 --> 00:03:20.289 it's... It's an easy explanation to latch onto. 00:03:20.830 --> 00:03:24.210 And they are leaning in hard. Remember, Ro Khanna, 00:03:24.469 --> 00:03:26.849 Congressman from California, he introduced that 00:03:26.849 --> 00:03:29.349 amendment in committee, forced publication of 00:03:29.349 --> 00:03:32.090 Epstein files in 30 days. Right. I remember that. 00:03:32.370 --> 00:03:35.050 Every single Democrat voted for it, almost all 00:03:35.050 --> 00:03:37.469 Republicans against it. That really felt like 00:03:37.469 --> 00:03:41.530 the starting gun for this whole, what are Republicans 00:03:41.530 --> 00:03:44.909 hiding? Yeah, that vote was significant. And 00:03:44.909 --> 00:03:47.569 since then, we've seen Senator Gallego in Arizona 00:03:47.569 --> 00:03:50.770 suggesting Trump's Rosie O'Donnell comment was 00:03:50.770 --> 00:03:53.590 just a distraction from the Epstein list. Hakeem 00:03:53.590 --> 00:03:55.669 Jeffries, House Minority Leader, demanding the 00:03:55.669 --> 00:03:58.770 truth, the whole truth. And Ted Lieu, also from 00:03:58.770 --> 00:04:01.490 California, being super direct. Where is that 00:04:01.490 --> 00:04:03.770 client list? What is Attorney General Bondi hiding? 00:04:04.169 --> 00:04:06.689 This is the case of the powerful protecting the 00:04:06.689 --> 00:04:09.009 powerful. That phrase, the powerful protecting 00:04:09.009 --> 00:04:11.310 the powerful, that resonates. It really does. 00:04:11.389 --> 00:04:13.490 And you're right. The implicit assumption baked 00:04:13.490 --> 00:04:15.629 into everything the Democrats are saying is that 00:04:15.629 --> 00:04:18.009 this list exists. Crucial assumption. Absolutely. 00:04:18.129 --> 00:04:20.889 If they can convince even just a part of the 00:04:20.889 --> 00:04:23.850 Republican base that it's real, well, as one 00:04:23.850 --> 00:04:26.949 source said, they're halfway home. The DNC is 00:04:26.949 --> 00:04:29.870 tweeting daily about an alleged coverup. The 00:04:29.870 --> 00:04:32.529 House Majority Cac Ring, they've put out a list 00:04:32.529 --> 00:04:35.870 of Republicans they claim are helping or tolerating 00:04:35.870 --> 00:04:37.910 it. They're coordinating the message. Very much 00:04:37.910 --> 00:04:40.569 so. Pat Dennis, he's president of American Bridge, 00:04:40.769 --> 00:04:43.930 the Democratic Opposition Research Group. He 00:04:43.930 --> 00:04:46.569 sees it as a foot in the door. A foot in the 00:04:46.569 --> 00:04:49.569 door to what? To argue that Trump doesn't have 00:04:49.569 --> 00:04:52.009 your back on other stuff, too, like health care, 00:04:52.250 --> 00:04:56.069 veterans affairs, even if the dead sex offender 00:04:56.069 --> 00:05:00.129 angle has more... salience, as he put it. More 00:05:00.129 --> 00:05:01.949 immediate impact. Right. And look, it doesn't 00:05:01.949 --> 00:05:03.550 help Trump that those photos of him and Epstein 00:05:03.550 --> 00:05:05.370 keep circulating. Yeah, those are tough images. 00:05:05.509 --> 00:05:07.209 The one with Trump's hand on Epstein's shoulder, 00:05:07.350 --> 00:05:09.490 the one with Epstein, Trump, Melania, gasoline 00:05:09.490 --> 00:05:13.149 Maxwell, they don't exactly scream strangers, 00:05:13.149 --> 00:05:15.149 you know? No, they don't. The more those images 00:05:15.149 --> 00:05:17.069 are out there, the harder it is for Trump to 00:05:17.069 --> 00:05:19.449 distance himself. It really says something about 00:05:19.449 --> 00:05:22.149 our current political moment that this issue 00:05:22.149 --> 00:05:24.810 could become so dominant. It really does. And 00:05:24.810 --> 00:05:27.209 the polling data, it pites an interesting if 00:05:27.209 --> 00:05:30.069 slightly confusing picture. There's an internal 00:05:30.069 --> 00:05:33.269 Democratic poll Politico got hold of. It shows 00:05:33.269 --> 00:05:35.629 61 percent of Trump voters think he's hiding 00:05:35.629 --> 00:05:38.069 Epstein info. Sixty one percent. That's high. 00:05:38.170 --> 00:05:41.930 Very high. Now, a CNN poll put the number at 00:05:41.930 --> 00:05:44.629 40 percent. So there's a discrepancy. Could be 00:05:44.629 --> 00:05:46.649 timing. Could be how the question was asked. 00:05:46.689 --> 00:05:49.290 But clearly the issue strikes a chord with the 00:05:49.290 --> 00:05:52.069 significant number of Republicans. And the Democratic 00:05:52.069 --> 00:05:55.149 goal here, it seems, is just to seed some doubt. 00:05:55.470 --> 00:05:57.889 Plant that seed. Yeah, plant the seed. If he 00:05:57.889 --> 00:05:59.709 lied to us on this, maybe he lied to us on other 00:05:59.709 --> 00:06:02.699 things, too. And Trump's reaction kind of feeds 00:06:02.699 --> 00:06:05.160 into this, doesn't it? His social media posts 00:06:05.160 --> 00:06:08.480 calling it a Jeffrey Epstein hoax, attacking 00:06:08.480 --> 00:06:11.319 weaklings, which seems to mean his own supporters 00:06:11.319 --> 00:06:13.720 demanding the files. Yeah, attacking his base. 00:06:14.000 --> 00:06:17.079 Strange move. It suggests he's worried, maybe 00:06:17.079 --> 00:06:19.360 doesn't quite know how to put the fire out, as 00:06:19.360 --> 00:06:21.319 one analysis put it. And, you know, speaking 00:06:21.319 --> 00:06:23.339 of questions around transparency and all that, 00:06:24.079 --> 00:06:26.639 there's this really interesting little news tidbit. 00:06:27.060 --> 00:06:29.339 Marine Comey. James Comey's daughter. That's 00:06:29.339 --> 00:06:32.910 the one. federal prosecutor at SDNY, Southern 00:06:32.910 --> 00:06:36.550 District of New York, often called one of the 00:06:36.550 --> 00:06:38.649 most powerful U .S. attorney's offices, right? 00:06:38.829 --> 00:06:40.689 Right, very profile. She worked successfully 00:06:40.689 --> 00:06:42.829 on both the Epstein and the Ghislaine Maxwell 00:06:42.829 --> 00:06:46.430 cases, and she was just fired out of the blue 00:06:46.430 --> 00:06:49.569 yesterday. Fired? Why? The stated reason was 00:06:49.569 --> 00:06:52.129 just citing the broad powers of the president 00:06:52.129 --> 00:06:54.449 under Article 2 of the Constitution. That's it. 00:06:54.569 --> 00:06:57.550 Wow, just presidential power. Given her role 00:06:57.550 --> 00:07:01.279 in those specific cases, that timing certainly 00:07:01.279 --> 00:07:04.319 makes you look a bit closer. It raises questions 00:07:04.319 --> 00:07:06.600 about the nature of that action, for sure. OK, 00:07:06.600 --> 00:07:08.139 let's shift gears a bit. Let's transition to 00:07:08.139 --> 00:07:10.139 another example of how public perception gets 00:07:10.139 --> 00:07:12.680 shaped, but this time more on the legislative 00:07:12.680 --> 00:07:15.399 level. OK. This is where you really see the strategic 00:07:15.399 --> 00:07:18.279 game playing out around major policy. Look at 00:07:18.279 --> 00:07:22.120 the the BBB bill, or technically BBL now. Hugely 00:07:22.120 --> 00:07:24.860 unpopular, yeah. Democrats are already planning 00:07:24.860 --> 00:07:27.819 to make it a central issue for 2026. So Republicans 00:07:27.819 --> 00:07:29.439 have a job to do, right? They have to try and 00:07:29.439 --> 00:07:31.839 sell the public on this thing. And who did they 00:07:31.839 --> 00:07:33.980 send out to help sell it? None other than J .D. 00:07:34.220 --> 00:07:37.639 Vance. Right. The Yale law grad, former Silicon 00:07:37.639 --> 00:07:40.199 Valley VC. Yep. They send him to West Pittston, 00:07:40.259 --> 00:07:43.100 Pennsylvania, Rust Belt town, actually only about 00:07:43.100 --> 00:07:45.680 12 miles from Joe Biden's hometown Scranton. 00:07:45.860 --> 00:07:48.120 Trying to shore up support there for the local 00:07:48.120 --> 00:07:50.779 Republican congressman Rob Bresnahan. Exactly. 00:07:51.019 --> 00:07:54.639 And Vance holds this micro rally, as it was described. 00:07:54.899 --> 00:07:57.939 Small event. Pretty focused. How small? Only 00:07:57.939 --> 00:08:00.740 about 250 people turned up for his speech, which 00:08:00.740 --> 00:08:03.639 is just 15 minutes long. 15 minutes. That's quick. 00:08:03.740 --> 00:08:06.459 Yeah. He focused on tax cuts, though, reportedly 00:08:06.459 --> 00:08:09.319 didn't detail who benefits most. He get the point 00:08:09.319 --> 00:08:12.360 about exempting overtime pay from taxes. And 00:08:12.360 --> 00:08:14.699 he played up the nostalgia card, you know, coal 00:08:14.699 --> 00:08:16.579 and gas industry, which used to be big there. 00:08:16.740 --> 00:08:18.620 Trying to connect on that local level. So how 00:08:18.620 --> 00:08:22.220 did it land? Well, reporters from a local paper 00:08:22.220 --> 00:08:24.199 talked to some folks afterwards. It gives you 00:08:24.199 --> 00:08:26.850 a glimpse into you know, the real world understanding 00:08:26.850 --> 00:08:29.029 or maybe misunderstanding. Yeah, those anecdotes 00:08:29.029 --> 00:08:31.569 are always revealing. There was Walter Volinsky, 00:08:31.850 --> 00:08:34.769 74, retired, said he hadn't read the 900 page 00:08:34.769 --> 00:08:37.230 law. Not surprising. But he trusted Donald Trump 00:08:37.230 --> 00:08:39.350 to make the country great again. Then there was 00:08:39.350 --> 00:08:42.269 Stephen Taylor, 52, truck driver. He liked the 00:08:42.269 --> 00:08:45.730 tax breaks on tips and overtime, but he was worried, 00:08:46.450 --> 00:08:48.870 worried about Medicaid cuts hurting his nephew 00:08:48.870 --> 00:08:51.289 who's diabetic. Ah, the personal connection. 00:08:51.370 --> 00:08:54.159 Exactly. And he said If that happens, he'd probably 00:08:54.159 --> 00:08:56.360 blame Trump for hurting his family, not just, 00:08:56.360 --> 00:08:58.940 you know, other people. That's such a stark example, 00:08:59.059 --> 00:09:02.179 isn't it? How that direct personal impact can 00:09:02.179 --> 00:09:05.379 just override the broad policy talking points. 00:09:05.419 --> 00:09:07.100 Totally. And the counter -attack, the counter 00:09:07.100 --> 00:09:09.500 -narrative, it's already going strong. Governor 00:09:09.500 --> 00:09:12.779 Josh Shapiro, the Democrat in Pennsylvania, he's 00:09:12.779 --> 00:09:14.700 aggressively targeting state Republicans who 00:09:14.700 --> 00:09:16.820 voted for the bill like Breznan. Shapiro said 00:09:16.820 --> 00:09:19.539 Bresnahan caved, voted for it, even after telling 00:09:19.539 --> 00:09:21.820 constituents it was a red line for him not to 00:09:21.820 --> 00:09:24.299 hurt Medicaid or rural hospitals. So putting 00:09:24.299 --> 00:09:26.279 the pressure on, what's Bresnahan's response? 00:09:26.500 --> 00:09:28.799 His counter is that the bill actually strengthens 00:09:28.799 --> 00:09:31.679 Medicaid by cracking down on fraud. Right. The 00:09:31.679 --> 00:09:34.169 standard waste, fraud, and abuse line. What this 00:09:34.169 --> 00:09:36.509 really shows, I think, is how the very same piece 00:09:36.509 --> 00:09:38.710 of legislation gets spun in completely different 00:09:38.710 --> 00:09:40.830 ways. Depends who you're talking to. Totally. 00:09:40.929 --> 00:09:42.850 Depends on the audience, the political goal. 00:09:43.110 --> 00:09:45.629 It's less about what the bill actually says line 00:09:45.629 --> 00:09:48.450 by line and more about this kind of choose your 00:09:48.450 --> 00:09:50.509 own adventure interpretation that's designed 00:09:50.509 --> 00:09:53.110 to hit home with specific voter groups. That 00:09:53.110 --> 00:09:55.429 feels like a good segue into the the ongoing 00:09:55.429 --> 00:09:57.389 tug of war between the branches of government, 00:09:57.690 --> 00:09:59.990 starting with this really immediate deadline 00:09:59.990 --> 00:10:02.389 on spending cuts. Yeah, that's happening right 00:10:02.389 --> 00:10:05.200 now. Donald Trump ordered his team to claw back 00:10:05.200 --> 00:10:09.399 $9 billion, unspent funds for foreign aid, and, 00:10:09.399 --> 00:10:12.179 interestingly, public media and PR and PBS. $9 00:10:12.179 --> 00:10:15.759 billion? By when? By midnight tomorrow. And it 00:10:15.759 --> 00:10:18.340 needs House approval. Things got interesting 00:10:18.340 --> 00:10:20.840 in the Senate during a procedural vote. How so? 00:10:21.120 --> 00:10:24.039 Senators Susan Collins from Maine, Mitch McConnell 00:10:24.039 --> 00:10:27.700 from Kentucky, Lisa Murkowski from Alaska, they 00:10:27.700 --> 00:10:30.879 all voted no. OK. Three key Republicans. Which 00:10:30.879 --> 00:10:33.700 forced JD Vance as president of the Senate to 00:10:33.700 --> 00:10:35.659 come in and cast the tie -breaking vote just 00:10:35.659 --> 00:10:38.480 to move forward. And even some senators who voted 00:10:38.480 --> 00:10:41.120 yes on that procedural step, like Tom Tillis 00:10:41.120 --> 00:10:43.720 from North Carolina, they were voicing skepticism, 00:10:43.940 --> 00:10:47.600 asking for assurances. So not exactly enthusiastic 00:10:47.600 --> 00:10:50.480 support, even from some who voted yes. Right. 00:10:50.539 --> 00:10:52.539 So what happened on the final vote? Did Collins 00:10:52.539 --> 00:10:54.899 and Murkowski stick to their guns? They did. 00:10:55.220 --> 00:10:58.669 The final vote was 51 -48. Collins and Murkowski 00:10:58.669 --> 00:11:01.769 voted against the actual bill. The Senate also 00:11:01.769 --> 00:11:04.809 managed to add an amendment, removing $400 million 00:11:04.809 --> 00:11:07.990 in cuts that were aimed at PEPFAR, the big HIV 00:11:07.990 --> 00:11:10.970 AIDS program. Ah, protecting PEPFAR. That's significant. 00:11:11.210 --> 00:11:13.090 So now the amended bill goes back to the House. 00:11:13.649 --> 00:11:16.110 But the level of concern among many senators, 00:11:16.309 --> 00:11:18.789 even some who voted for it, was really striking. 00:11:18.950 --> 00:11:21.779 Like what specifically? Well, McConnell complained 00:11:21.779 --> 00:11:23.639 the White House hadn't given any details on how 00:11:23.639 --> 00:11:25.840 they'd implement the cuts, accused them of basically 00:11:25.840 --> 00:11:28.419 wanting a blank check. OK, process concerns. 00:11:28.620 --> 00:11:30.899 Murkowski made a really powerful case for public 00:11:30.899 --> 00:11:34.080 media, talked about its role broadcasting emergency 00:11:34.080 --> 00:11:36.620 alerts, used a recent earthquake and tsunami 00:11:36.620 --> 00:11:39.460 warning in Alaska as a specific example. Wow. 00:11:39.639 --> 00:11:42.559 Said point blank that public media save human 00:11:42.559 --> 00:11:46.120 lives. Hard to argue with that. Yeah. And Tillis, 00:11:46.460 --> 00:11:49.740 you know, he's retiring, so. maybe less worried 00:11:49.740 --> 00:11:51.500 about political fallout. Right, more freedom 00:11:51.500 --> 00:11:53.980 to speak his mind. He was pretty blunt, said 00:11:53.980 --> 00:11:56.159 he suspected, quote, we're going to find out 00:11:56.159 --> 00:11:57.820 there are some things that we're going to regret, 00:11:58.679 --> 00:12:00.419 hinted about second and third order effects, 00:12:00.840 --> 00:12:03.360 maybe future posture if Trump ends up double 00:12:03.360 --> 00:12:05.940 crossing them. Foreshadowing potential conflict 00:12:05.940 --> 00:12:08.159 down the line. And then Senator Roger Wicker 00:12:08.159 --> 00:12:11.899 from Mississippi, he said he had reservation, 00:12:12.580 --> 00:12:15.120 was troubled. by how much deference they were 00:12:15.120 --> 00:12:18.500 giving the executive branch, warned about a disregard 00:12:18.500 --> 00:12:21.159 for the constitutional responsibilities of the 00:12:21.159 --> 00:12:23.500 legislative branch under Article 1, basically 00:12:23.500 --> 00:12:25.899 saying Congress was just conceding that decision 00:12:25.899 --> 00:12:28.940 voluntarily to the executive branch. A fundamental 00:12:28.940 --> 00:12:31.799 separation of powers argument. Exactly. But you 00:12:31.799 --> 00:12:33.759 still voted for it. They said there was a larger 00:12:33.759 --> 00:12:36.279 imperative. A larger imperative that really begs 00:12:36.279 --> 00:12:38.059 the question, doesn't it? Why would senators 00:12:38.059 --> 00:12:40.000 vote for something they seem to have such deep, 00:12:40.120 --> 00:12:42.259 fundamental constitutional reservations about? 00:12:42.639 --> 00:12:45.379 What is that larger imperative that makes them 00:12:45.379 --> 00:12:47.840 effectively hand over power? It's a huge question 00:12:47.840 --> 00:12:50.940 about the balance of power right now. And shifting 00:12:50.940 --> 00:12:53.940 gears slightly, but staying on this theme of 00:12:53.940 --> 00:12:57.840 institutional stability. What does all this mean 00:12:57.840 --> 00:13:01.299 for other key bodies? Like, let's look at the 00:13:01.299 --> 00:13:04.299 Federal Reserve. There was this weird headline 00:13:04.299 --> 00:13:07.679 yesterday, Trump might fire Fed chair Jerome 00:13:07.679 --> 00:13:11.980 Powell or maybe not. Classic Trump uncertainty. 00:13:12.340 --> 00:13:14.700 Look, very little of what he does seems based 00:13:14.700 --> 00:13:16.639 on, you know, careful advance planning. People 00:13:16.639 --> 00:13:19.120 talk about 4D chess, but honestly, it often looks 00:13:19.120 --> 00:13:21.019 more like tic -tac -toe. Where he loses half 00:13:21.019 --> 00:13:23.720 the time. Yeah, exactly. The reporting suggests 00:13:23.720 --> 00:13:26.120 his motivation here would be to fire Powell, 00:13:26.360 --> 00:13:28.419 put in someone who'd slash interest rates way 00:13:28.419 --> 00:13:31.240 down. Why? to lower the interest payments on 00:13:31.240 --> 00:13:33.539 all that new debt from the BBB bill. That seems 00:13:33.539 --> 00:13:35.980 to be the thinking. Lower the debt service costs 00:13:35.980 --> 00:13:39.179 on that $3 trillion. But the economic consensus 00:13:39.179 --> 00:13:41.240 is pretty overwhelming. What's the consensus? 00:13:41.500 --> 00:13:43.399 Super low rates like that, they'll spark major 00:13:43.399 --> 00:13:46.580 inflation, which ironically could lead to Republicans 00:13:46.580 --> 00:13:50.419 losing big time in 2026, maybe 40 or more seats 00:13:50.419 --> 00:13:52.340 in the House and control of the Senate. So potentially 00:13:52.340 --> 00:13:54.360 self -defeating in the medium term. But that 00:13:54.360 --> 00:13:56.860 highlights the short term thinking, right? He 00:13:56.860 --> 00:14:00.220 apparently doesn't think 17 months ahead. It's 00:14:00.220 --> 00:14:02.200 also not clear he can just fire Powell easily. 00:14:02.340 --> 00:14:04.940 Oh, so? The law says the president can only fire 00:14:04.940 --> 00:14:07.559 the Fed chair for cause, not just because you 00:14:07.559 --> 00:14:09.659 disagree on policy. Powell could actually take 00:14:09.659 --> 00:14:12.480 it to court. Really? Would he? Maybe. Not for 00:14:12.480 --> 00:14:15.100 the money, obviously, but sources suggest maybe 00:14:15.100 --> 00:14:17.500 out of an obligation to prevent Trump from ruining 00:14:17.500 --> 00:14:20.860 the economy by putting in some unqualified loyalists. 00:14:20.919 --> 00:14:24.279 So you have this stark tension again. Political 00:14:24.279 --> 00:14:27.179 desires crashing against institutional independence. 00:14:27.600 --> 00:14:29.940 Exactly. It's a recurring theme. OK, let's broaden 00:14:29.940 --> 00:14:33.279 that again. Loyalty, legacy, political futures. 00:14:33.539 --> 00:14:35.940 Let's talk about the judiciary, specifically 00:14:35.940 --> 00:14:39.179 Trump's approach to picking judges and how it 00:14:39.179 --> 00:14:41.139 seems to be evolving. Yeah, there's definitely 00:14:41.139 --> 00:14:43.000 a difference. People are pointing out. Remember 00:14:43.000 --> 00:14:47.820 Trump V1 .0 back in his first term. He basically 00:14:47.820 --> 00:14:50.039 rubber stamped Supreme Court picks from the Heritage 00:14:50.039 --> 00:14:52.899 Foundation. Right. Gorsuch, Kavanaugh, Barrett. 00:14:53.019 --> 00:14:56.019 These were seen as, you know, heavyweight intellectuals, 00:14:56.259 --> 00:14:58.559 very conservative. Yes, impressive resumes on 00:14:58.559 --> 00:15:01.679 paper, but their primary loyalty was arguably 00:15:01.679 --> 00:15:05.200 to the conservative legal movement. A known quantity 00:15:05.200 --> 00:15:08.320 within that world. But Trump v 2 .0, the current 00:15:08.320 --> 00:15:11.340 version. Yeah. It seems different. The reporting 00:15:11.340 --> 00:15:13.409 suggests he doesn't just want... loyalty to the 00:15:13.409 --> 00:15:15.789 conservative movement. He wants loyalty to him. 00:15:16.169 --> 00:15:19.049 Personal loyalty. Above all else. Often seemingly 00:15:19.049 --> 00:15:21.610 above qualifications or anything else. Think 00:15:21.610 --> 00:15:23.110 about some of the names in the Justice Department 00:15:23.110 --> 00:15:26.509 now. Former AG Pam Bonney, who was his lawyer 00:15:26.509 --> 00:15:29.210 during the first impeachment. Deputy AG Todd 00:15:29.210 --> 00:15:31.669 Blanche, who defended him in his criminal trial. 00:15:32.230 --> 00:15:34.850 Solicitor General D. John Sauer, his lead lawyer 00:15:34.850 --> 00:15:36.710 in the immunity case before the Supreme Court. 00:15:36.809 --> 00:15:39.509 A pattern of appointing his defense lawyers to 00:15:39.509 --> 00:15:41.929 top legal positions. Exactly. And a really prime 00:15:41.929 --> 00:15:46.090 example of this Trump v. 2 .0 judicial pick seems 00:15:46.090 --> 00:15:49.269 to be Emile Boeuf III. Trump nominated him for 00:15:49.269 --> 00:15:50.830 the U .S. Court of Appeals for the Third Circuit. 00:15:51.029 --> 00:15:53.809 OK, tell us about Boeuf. He's 44, Georgetown 00:15:53.809 --> 00:15:56.330 Law degree, did some clerkships, spent nine years 00:15:56.330 --> 00:15:58.350 as an assistant U .S. attorney down at SDNY. 00:15:58.750 --> 00:16:01.570 Prosecution experience. Yes, but apparently was 00:16:01.570 --> 00:16:03.940 denied a promotion there. Some former colleagues 00:16:03.940 --> 00:16:06.860 were quoted calling him, pretty harshly, a prosecutor 00:16:06.860 --> 00:16:09.480 version of a drunken driver. Ouch. That's strong 00:16:09.480 --> 00:16:12.379 criticism. Yeah. He then went into private practice, 00:16:12.580 --> 00:16:14.960 helped defend Trump in several cases. Now he's 00:16:14.960 --> 00:16:17.740 back in DOJ as Principal Associate Deputy AG. 00:16:19.000 --> 00:16:21.139 But the defining characteristic people point 00:16:21.139 --> 00:16:24.700 to is total loyalty to Trump above all else. 00:16:24.840 --> 00:16:27.679 How is that evidenced? Well, reports identified 00:16:27.679 --> 00:16:31.399 him as a key player. in that alleged scheme to 00:16:31.399 --> 00:16:34.299 blackmail New York Mayor Eric Adams. Ah, okay. 00:16:34.779 --> 00:16:37.539 So controversial actions link directly to Trump's 00:16:37.539 --> 00:16:39.740 interests. Right. And connecting this to the 00:16:39.740 --> 00:16:43.080 bigger picture, what worries some observers is 00:16:43.080 --> 00:16:45.220 the idea that Trump might nominate Bug to the 00:16:45.220 --> 00:16:47.860 Supreme Court if, say, Justice Thomas or Justice 00:16:47.860 --> 00:16:49.919 Leto were to retire soon. To the Supreme Court, 00:16:49.919 --> 00:16:52.100 based on what? The argument goes. He's young, 00:16:52.139 --> 00:16:54.899 only 44, and that perceived total loyalty to 00:16:54.899 --> 00:16:57.730 Trump might... in Trump's eyes, outweigh his 00:16:57.730 --> 00:17:00.909 lack of legal gravitas. So loyalty Trump's qualifications 00:17:00.909 --> 00:17:03.710 for the highest court. That's the concern. And 00:17:03.710 --> 00:17:06.029 the thinking is, if he gets confirmed to the 00:17:06.029 --> 00:17:08.170 Third Circuit now, maybe spends a year as an 00:17:08.170 --> 00:17:10.970 appeals judge, if a Supreme Court seat opens 00:17:10.970 --> 00:17:15.269 up in, say, June 2026, some worry that year might 00:17:15.269 --> 00:17:18.140 be seen as Just enough judicial experience to 00:17:18.140 --> 00:17:20.480 get him Senate confirmation. It really puts the 00:17:20.480 --> 00:17:22.559 focus on the integrity of the judiciary, doesn't 00:17:22.559 --> 00:17:24.460 it? And what the criteria should be for these 00:17:24.460 --> 00:17:27.440 lifetime appointments. Absolutely. And his confirmation 00:17:27.440 --> 00:17:29.819 hearing for that Third Circuit seat back on June 00:17:29.819 --> 00:17:32.619 25th, it was apparently very contentious. How 00:17:32.619 --> 00:17:35.480 so? Eight former federal prosecutors wrote urging 00:17:35.480 --> 00:17:37.980 the Judiciary Committee to reject him, called 00:17:37.980 --> 00:17:40.519 him the worst conceivable nominee. Wow, from 00:17:40.519 --> 00:17:43.579 former colleagues. And 75 state and federal judges 00:17:43.579 --> 00:17:46.109 signed a letter calling his record egregious 00:17:46.109 --> 00:17:49.490 and disqualifying. You had opposition from groups 00:17:49.490 --> 00:17:51.829 like the Society for the Rule of Law Institute. 00:17:52.630 --> 00:17:55.569 On the other side, 20 Republican attorneys general 00:17:55.569 --> 00:17:59.250 supported him. So a real battle. Has the committee 00:17:59.250 --> 00:18:01.369 voted? Not yet. The Senate Judiciary Committee 00:18:01.369 --> 00:18:02.970 still hasn't taken a vote on his nomination. 00:18:03.089 --> 00:18:05.869 OK, one to watch. Definitely. Finally, let's 00:18:05.869 --> 00:18:08.390 bring it back to how all these pressures, these 00:18:08.390 --> 00:18:11.329 dynamics affect individual politicians and their 00:18:11.329 --> 00:18:14.140 careers. Let's look closely at Senator Susan 00:18:14.140 --> 00:18:16.660 Collins of Maine. Right. Caught in the middle 00:18:16.660 --> 00:18:19.619 of a lot of this. Her dream job, reportedly, 00:18:19.859 --> 00:18:22.079 was always to chair the Senate Appropriations 00:18:22.079 --> 00:18:25.920 Committee. Well, she got the job. But now sources 00:18:25.920 --> 00:18:28.640 say it feels more like a nightmare. Why a nightmare? 00:18:28.759 --> 00:18:30.920 Because Donald Trump and the Senate Majority 00:18:30.920 --> 00:18:34.160 Leader, John Thune, are apparently forcing her 00:18:34.160 --> 00:18:37.140 into positions that really hurt people in Maine. 00:18:37.380 --> 00:18:39.099 Like the clawback bill we just talked about. 00:18:39.240 --> 00:18:41.339 That's a key example. She put out a statement 00:18:41.339 --> 00:18:44.000 saying she votes according to what I assess to 00:18:44.000 --> 00:18:46.240 be in the best interests of my constituents and 00:18:46.240 --> 00:18:49.680 my country. Standard stuff. Sure. But sources 00:18:49.680 --> 00:18:52.680 counter that she's often only really allowed 00:18:52.680 --> 00:18:55.799 to vote against the party line if her vote isn't 00:18:55.799 --> 00:18:57.619 absolutely essential to pass something Trump 00:18:57.619 --> 00:19:00.539 wants. So only when her vote doesn't matter to 00:19:00.539 --> 00:19:02.960 the outcome. That's the suggestion, which puts 00:19:02.960 --> 00:19:04.740 her in a really tough spot politically back home. 00:19:04.859 --> 00:19:06.740 Yeah, very vulnerable. She's up for re -election 00:19:06.740 --> 00:19:10.690 next year, right? Next year. She'll be 72. She's 00:19:10.690 --> 00:19:12.609 the only Republican senator running in a state 00:19:12.609 --> 00:19:15.430 that Kamala Harris won. That's a tough map. And 00:19:15.430 --> 00:19:17.970 her approval rating isn't great. Yeah. One recent 00:19:17.970 --> 00:19:21.890 poll had 51 % of Maine voters disapproving of 00:19:21.890 --> 00:19:24.869 her job performance. She's reportedly even said 00:19:24.869 --> 00:19:27.250 things privately like, what's the point if I 00:19:27.250 --> 00:19:29.250 have to vote against the interests of my constituents 00:19:29.250 --> 00:19:31.930 all the time? You can see the frustration there. 00:19:32.109 --> 00:19:35.309 After Tom Tillis announced his retirement, she 00:19:35.309 --> 00:19:38.190 is by far the most vulnerable Republican senator 00:19:38.190 --> 00:19:42.109 up in 26. And, you know, tens of millions of 00:19:42.109 --> 00:19:43.750 dollars are going to pour into Maine to try and 00:19:43.750 --> 00:19:45.769 beat her. So the Democrats must be targeting 00:19:45.769 --> 00:19:48.529 her heavily. Oh, yeah. Some Democrats are apparently 00:19:48.529 --> 00:19:50.730 just hoping she decides it's not worth it anymore 00:19:50.730 --> 00:19:53.650 and retires. What about the Trump factor specifically 00:19:53.650 --> 00:19:56.529 with Collins? Well, Trump is reportedly pretty 00:19:56.529 --> 00:19:58.789 irritated with her generally. He's been quiet 00:19:58.789 --> 00:20:01.549 about her race so far, but that could change. 00:20:01.660 --> 00:20:04.079 How might that play out? It's tricky. If he just, 00:20:04.079 --> 00:20:05.900 you know, barks at her from afar, that might 00:20:05.900 --> 00:20:08.519 actually help her in Maine play into her independent 00:20:08.519 --> 00:20:10.859 image. Right. The standing up to Trump angle. 00:20:11.079 --> 00:20:15.180 But if he were to endorse a primary challenger 00:20:15.180 --> 00:20:17.839 against her, get his wealthy friends to fund 00:20:17.839 --> 00:20:21.460 that challenger, she could potentially lose the 00:20:21.460 --> 00:20:23.359 Republican primary. And that primary challenger. 00:20:23.480 --> 00:20:25.460 Would almost certainly lose the general election 00:20:25.460 --> 00:20:29.259 in relatively blue Maine. So Trump attacking 00:20:29.259 --> 00:20:32.450 her. could cost the Republicans the seat. A complicated 00:20:32.450 --> 00:20:35.190 dynamic for him too then. Very. And it's telling 00:20:35.190 --> 00:20:38.289 that Trump apparently refused her requests for 00:20:38.289 --> 00:20:41.750 changes on the BBB bill. That's almost unheard 00:20:41.750 --> 00:20:44.470 of, right? For a president to just order the 00:20:44.470 --> 00:20:46.089 chair of the Senate Appropriations Committee 00:20:46.089 --> 00:20:49.109 around. Especially the chair who controls the 00:20:49.109 --> 00:20:51.490 purse strings. But he did it! Yeah, because with 00:20:51.490 --> 00:20:54.049 that narrow three seat majority, he figured he 00:20:54.049 --> 00:20:56.650 could afford to ignore Collins, ignore Murkowski 00:20:56.650 --> 00:20:59.130 and still get his way. It really highlights the 00:20:59.130 --> 00:21:01.029 intense pressure these figures are under. It 00:21:01.029 --> 00:21:04.329 does. And it raises this maybe unforeseen possibility 00:21:04.329 --> 00:21:06.809 that maybe she really does just decide what's 00:21:06.809 --> 00:21:09.170 the point. Maybe she chooses to retire come January 00:21:09.170 --> 00:21:12.789 3rd, 2027. A fascinating potential outcome. So 00:21:12.789 --> 00:21:17.470 quite a journey we've taken today from. the strategic 00:21:17.470 --> 00:21:20.609 use of information or non -information with the 00:21:20.609 --> 00:21:23.430 Epstein files, how that's used to shape opinion, 00:21:23.789 --> 00:21:26.650 divide parties to that intricate dance around 00:21:26.650 --> 00:21:30.049 the unpopular BBB bill, how its impact gets spun 00:21:30.049 --> 00:21:31.750 completely differently for different people. 00:21:31.750 --> 00:21:33.450 Yeah, the messaging battles. We've seen that 00:21:33.450 --> 00:21:36.490 ongoing tug of war between the White House and 00:21:36.490 --> 00:21:39.470 Congress over spending, over executive power. 00:21:39.609 --> 00:21:42.089 And the deep concerns about institutional independence. 00:21:42.490 --> 00:21:45.890 Exactly. The Fed, the judiciary. Yeah. Especially 00:21:45.890 --> 00:21:48.170 with judicial picks, seemingly jased more on 00:21:48.170 --> 00:21:50.470 personal loyalty than anything else, it's this 00:21:50.470 --> 00:21:53.329 incredibly complex web, isn't it? Power, strategy, 00:21:53.529 --> 00:21:55.529 personal impacts. It really is. So what does 00:21:55.529 --> 00:21:58.309 this all mean for you? Listening. It means trying 00:21:58.309 --> 00:21:59.930 to understand that the news you read, the headlines 00:21:59.930 --> 00:22:02.390 you see, they're often just one piece of a much 00:22:02.390 --> 00:22:05.009 larger multi -layered game. There are complex 00:22:05.009 --> 00:22:07.170 motives, potentially far -reaching consequences, 00:22:07.710 --> 00:22:10.029 hiding behind the day -to -day noise. And maybe 00:22:10.029 --> 00:22:11.970 it prompts a vital question for you to think 00:22:11.970 --> 00:22:15.180 about. Beyond these specific battles, how does 00:22:15.180 --> 00:22:17.500 this constant pursuit of short -term political 00:22:17.500 --> 00:22:19.880 goals, these intense expressions of loyalty, 00:22:20.420 --> 00:22:22.640 how does that shape not just the next election, 00:22:22.720 --> 00:22:24.859 but the actual long -term fabric of how government 00:22:24.859 --> 00:22:26.900 works? What does accountability even look like 00:22:26.900 --> 00:22:29.420 down the road? That's something worth pondering, 00:22:29.420 --> 00:22:30.920 I think, as you keep following the news.