WEBVTT 00:00:00.000 --> 00:00:02.379 All right, let's really dig into this. Today, 00:00:02.540 --> 00:00:06.700 we're taking a deep dive into the fascinating 00:00:06.700 --> 00:00:09.359 and often surprising shifts happening across 00:00:09.359 --> 00:00:12.220 the political landscape right now. You've sent 00:00:12.220 --> 00:00:15.699 us quite a stack of sources, a mix of recent 00:00:15.699 --> 00:00:18.559 news reports, some raw poll data covering everything 00:00:18.559 --> 00:00:22.760 from internal party squabbles to some truly strategic 00:00:22.760 --> 00:00:25.039 electoral chess moves. Yeah, what's striking 00:00:25.039 --> 00:00:27.420 here, I think, is how interconnected these seemingly 00:00:27.420 --> 00:00:30.460 disconnected events truly are. Our mission, really, 00:00:30.460 --> 00:00:32.880 is to pull out the most important insights, helping 00:00:32.880 --> 00:00:36.200 you quickly grasp the tricky dynamics, these 00:00:36.200 --> 00:00:38.640 unexpected challenges, and the strategic thinking 00:00:38.640 --> 00:00:40.859 behind the political plays as we head towards 00:00:40.859 --> 00:00:43.479 upcoming elections. And speaking of tricky dynamics, 00:00:43.539 --> 00:00:45.479 let's start with a big one. Donald Trump's own 00:00:45.479 --> 00:00:47.380 base. You'd think he'd have them firmly in his 00:00:47.380 --> 00:00:49.859 corner, but we're seeing some unexpected friction 00:00:49.859 --> 00:00:52.380 points causing real annoyance. Maybe not bolting 00:00:52.380 --> 00:00:54.640 yet, but definitely annoyance. What are you seeing 00:00:54.640 --> 00:00:56.560 as the major challenges for him right now from 00:00:56.560 --> 00:00:58.259 that base? Well, one of the first things that 00:00:58.259 --> 00:01:00.960 jumps out is the the tension around immigration. 00:01:01.619 --> 00:01:04.920 His Mejia base clearly wants mass deportations, 00:01:05.019 --> 00:01:07.319 you know, get everyone out. But the sources show 00:01:07.319 --> 00:01:09.659 corporate farmers have quietly warned Trump that 00:01:09.659 --> 00:01:12.200 if he actually pulled that off, food production 00:01:12.200 --> 00:01:15.239 would basically collapse. Collapse. Wow. Yeah. 00:01:15.340 --> 00:01:18.359 Sending prices soaring a nightmare. economically 00:01:18.359 --> 00:01:21.260 speaking, like echoes of past inflation crises. 00:01:22.099 --> 00:01:23.680 So it's probably no coincidence we're already 00:01:23.680 --> 00:01:27.099 seeing a pullback on raids at farms and big hotels, 00:01:27.480 --> 00:01:31.140 places owned by powerful corporations. So a pragmatic 00:01:31.140 --> 00:01:33.480 kind of behind -the -scenes adjustment maybe. 00:01:34.000 --> 00:01:36.040 But one that's clearly not sitting well with 00:01:36.040 --> 00:01:38.859 some of his most vocal supporters, we're hearing 00:01:38.859 --> 00:01:41.700 accusations of amnesty thrown around. Absolutely. 00:01:42.079 --> 00:01:44.420 Trump's comments back in Iowa suggesting protection 00:01:44.420 --> 00:01:47.219 for some migrants instantly ignited a firestorm. 00:01:47.299 --> 00:01:49.379 You've got figures like Steve Bannon, Joe Rogan, 00:01:49.579 --> 00:01:51.920 Charlie Kirk. The big names. Right. Loudly accusing 00:01:51.920 --> 00:01:54.040 him of amnesty. And these accusations are just 00:01:54.040 --> 00:01:56.340 amplified everywhere on social media. Yeah. The 00:01:56.340 --> 00:01:58.980 insight here, I think, is Trump has to keep those 00:01:58.980 --> 00:02:01.579 farm workers in place to avoid a full -blown 00:02:01.579 --> 00:02:04.780 inflation crisis. Yeah. As the sources clearly 00:02:04.780 --> 00:02:07.400 state, native -born Americans just aren't willing 00:02:07.400 --> 00:02:10.080 to do that work for the same wages. It puts him 00:02:10.080 --> 00:02:12.379 in a real bind. A bind, yeah. And it's not just 00:02:12.379 --> 00:02:15.280 policy where he's facing internal pressure. We're 00:02:15.280 --> 00:02:17.620 also seeing this Jeffrey Epstein video situation. 00:02:18.000 --> 00:02:20.580 bubbling up again. The administration released 00:02:20.580 --> 00:02:23.099 footage from outside Epstein's jail cell, but 00:02:23.099 --> 00:02:27.120 the digital clock bizarrely jumps from 11 .5858 00:02:27.120 --> 00:02:31.360 PM straight to 12000 AM, this missing minute. 00:02:31.360 --> 00:02:33.979 Ah, the missing minute. It's turbocharged conspiracy 00:02:33.979 --> 00:02:36.060 theories among the base about Epstein's death 00:02:36.060 --> 00:02:38.460 and who he might have been silenced to protect. 00:02:38.719 --> 00:02:41.819 That's a fascinating and really potent example 00:02:41.819 --> 00:02:44.610 of how distrust, which is a narrative Trump often 00:02:44.610 --> 00:02:46.590 cultivates, right? Yeah. How it can boomerang 00:02:46.590 --> 00:02:48.710 back and undermine his own administration when 00:02:48.710 --> 00:02:51.270 transparency is perceived to falter. It just 00:02:51.270 --> 00:02:53.490 adds another layer of complexity to managing 00:02:53.490 --> 00:02:56.210 his coalition. And then there's Ukraine. Trump 00:02:56.210 --> 00:02:58.490 has actually criticized Vladimir Putin recently 00:02:58.490 --> 00:03:01.210 and even said he'd send more weapons to Ukraine, 00:03:01.629 --> 00:03:04.659 which is. Unexpected for some. Exactly. It flies 00:03:04.659 --> 00:03:07.080 directly in the face of parts of his base who 00:03:07.080 --> 00:03:09.680 are far more sympathetic to Russia and frankly 00:03:09.680 --> 00:03:12.300 don't want to support Ukraine's freedom. It's 00:03:12.300 --> 00:03:14.819 a lot of conflicting signals. One person close 00:03:14.819 --> 00:03:17.219 to him was quoted saying, I will tell you right 00:03:17.219 --> 00:03:20.139 now, Magier has never been in more turmoil than 00:03:20.139 --> 00:03:25.430 the last 72 hours. Wow. 72 hours. Yeah. He's 00:03:25.430 --> 00:03:27.490 apparently hoping his talk about tariffs might 00:03:27.490 --> 00:03:29.610 distract from these issues. That doesn't seem 00:03:29.610 --> 00:03:31.189 to be landing with his base either. They're not 00:03:31.189 --> 00:03:34.189 really focused on tariffs. If we connect this 00:03:34.189 --> 00:03:36.870 to the bigger picture, these internal tensions 00:03:36.870 --> 00:03:39.830 aren't just about balancing campaign promises 00:03:39.830 --> 00:03:42.229 with the messy realities of governing. This really 00:03:42.229 --> 00:03:44.509 highlights the core paradox of Trump's populist 00:03:44.509 --> 00:03:47.319 appeal. Yeah. He needs corporate power to avoid 00:03:47.319 --> 00:03:50.259 economic fallout, but his base often despises 00:03:50.259 --> 00:03:52.819 that same corporate influence. A real contradiction. 00:03:52.960 --> 00:03:55.020 It puts him in a kind of no -win bind that could, 00:03:55.020 --> 00:03:57.479 over time, potentially fracture his coalition. 00:03:57.819 --> 00:03:59.680 Speaking of tariffs, the congressional Republicans 00:03:59.680 --> 00:04:02.379 are far from happy either. Trump gave himself, 00:04:02.419 --> 00:04:05.560 what, 90 days to cut trade deals with 200 countries? 00:04:05.719 --> 00:04:08.300 Yeah, an ambitious goal. And after all that time, 00:04:08.460 --> 00:04:10.639 there are only two tentative agreements, one 00:04:10.639 --> 00:04:13.560 with the UK and one with Vietnam. So he then 00:04:13.560 --> 00:04:16.839 unilaterally slapped steep tariffs like 25 percent 00:04:16.839 --> 00:04:19.339 and up on over a dozen countries effective August 00:04:19.339 --> 00:04:22.740 1st. And the blowback from businesses is hitting 00:04:22.740 --> 00:04:25.199 congressional Republicans hard now. They're hearing 00:04:25.199 --> 00:04:27.860 it. Well, yeah. And this begs the question, what 00:04:27.860 --> 00:04:29.959 kind of allies do you cultivate when you're picking 00:04:29.959 --> 00:04:32.779 a trade fight? Basically on your own. Yeah, Senator 00:04:32.779 --> 00:04:35.240 Tom Tillis a Republican from North Carolina put 00:04:35.240 --> 00:04:37.079 it pretty bluntly He said if you're gonna go 00:04:37.079 --> 00:04:39.699 into a trade war, it's good to have allies What 00:04:39.699 --> 00:04:42.500 we did is alienate the ones we know are naturally 00:04:42.500 --> 00:04:45.100 inclined to work with us alienating allies Not 00:04:45.100 --> 00:04:48.430 ideal not ideal And Senator Shelley Moore Capito 00:04:48.430 --> 00:04:51.810 of West Virginia is pushing for full transparency 00:04:51.810 --> 00:04:54.509 on these trade talks once the agreement's public. 00:04:55.290 --> 00:04:57.509 And Senator John Kennedy of Louisiana, he summed 00:04:57.509 --> 00:05:00.750 up the widespread uncertainty. We're in uncharted 00:05:00.750 --> 00:05:03.529 territory. I do not know the impact that terrorists 00:05:03.529 --> 00:05:05.769 are going to have on the American economy or 00:05:05.769 --> 00:05:08.129 the global economy. I don't. And nobody else 00:05:08.129 --> 00:05:09.870 does either. Nobody knows. That sounds like a 00:05:09.870 --> 00:05:12.689 chorus of concern, really. These senators are 00:05:12.689 --> 00:05:15.149 clearly worried that continuous Taco Tuesday. 00:05:15.250 --> 00:05:17.310 Taco Tuesday, yeah. As they're calling these 00:05:17.310 --> 00:05:19.509 ongoing trade actions, creating uncertainty will 00:05:19.509 --> 00:05:22.670 spook markets, erode belief in Trump, maybe even 00:05:22.670 --> 00:05:24.990 trigger a resettlement next year and ultimately 00:05:24.990 --> 00:05:27.389 cost Republican seats in the House and Senate. 00:05:27.970 --> 00:05:30.069 And from what we're seeing, Trump seems to be 00:05:30.069 --> 00:05:34.019 largely ignoring their concerns. Pretty much 00:05:34.019 --> 00:05:36.240 seems that way. And this economic friction, it 00:05:36.240 --> 00:05:38.839 isn't limited to trade, which raises an important 00:05:38.839 --> 00:05:41.199 question. What's truly behind Trump's intense 00:05:41.199 --> 00:05:43.420 desire to fire Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome 00:05:43.420 --> 00:05:45.339 Powell, his own appointee? He appointed him. 00:05:45.579 --> 00:05:48.019 Trump is demanding Powell lower interest rates 00:05:48.019 --> 00:05:51.850 or resign. He even sent a letter. Powell, for 00:05:51.850 --> 00:05:54.329 his part, is holding firm. He understands that 00:05:54.329 --> 00:05:56.589 slashing rates now would likely ignite inflation 00:05:56.589 --> 00:05:59.750 and send the dollar plunging. Plus, it's actually 00:05:59.750 --> 00:06:02.009 unclear if Trump even has the legal power to 00:06:02.009 --> 00:06:05.189 fire him. And his real estate background surely 00:06:05.189 --> 00:06:07.540 plays into this. The sources point out that his 00:06:07.540 --> 00:06:09.819 real estate projects still run by Eric and Donald 00:06:09.819 --> 00:06:12.759 Jr. are heavily dependent on low interest rates. 00:06:13.220 --> 00:06:15.399 Developers would love zero percent if they could 00:06:15.399 --> 00:06:17.620 get it right. Oh, absolutely. But there might 00:06:17.620 --> 00:06:20.139 be a deeper game being played here. OK. Lail 00:06:20.139 --> 00:06:23.139 Brainard, a former Fed governor, suggests Trump's 00:06:23.139 --> 00:06:25.740 real goal isn't just about his family businesses. 00:06:26.139 --> 00:06:28.620 It's potentially a massive play to hide the effect 00:06:28.620 --> 00:06:33.180 of his budget busing bill, the BBB. The BBB created 00:06:33.180 --> 00:06:35.740 a staggering four trillion dollars in new debt. 00:06:35.850 --> 00:06:38.310 The thinking is, for every point Powell knocks 00:06:38.310 --> 00:06:40.509 off the interest rate, the government saves hundreds 00:06:40.509 --> 00:06:43.209 of billions over 10 years. Hundreds of billions? 00:06:43.569 --> 00:06:47.709 Yeah. So a 3 % cut, say from 4 % to 1%, could 00:06:47.709 --> 00:06:49.850 save the government well over a trillion dollars 00:06:49.850 --> 00:06:52.629 over a decade. He's trying to offset massive 00:06:52.629 --> 00:06:55.310 spending, essentially. What's often overlooked 00:06:55.310 --> 00:06:58.230 here, or maybe just disregarded, is the direct 00:06:58.230 --> 00:07:00.810 link between cutting rates and sparking inflation. 00:07:00.959 --> 00:07:05.100 and completely disregarding the Fed's crucial 00:07:05.100 --> 00:07:07.639 independence. So it's that classic political 00:07:07.639 --> 00:07:09.600 dilemma, isn't it, where every solution creates 00:07:09.600 --> 00:07:12.120 a new problem for someone else. People with variable 00:07:12.120 --> 00:07:14.839 rate mortgages, credit card debt, student loans, 00:07:14.879 --> 00:07:18.079 they want low rates. But seniors relying on savings 00:07:18.079 --> 00:07:20.920 income, they want high rates. Exactly. And high 00:07:20.920 --> 00:07:22.839 interest rates also strengthen the dollar, which 00:07:22.839 --> 00:07:25.040 benefits huge importers like Walmart. There's 00:07:25.040 --> 00:07:27.319 just no way to please everyone. No easy answer. 00:07:27.459 --> 00:07:29.740 Not really. And speculation about potential replacements 00:07:29.740 --> 00:07:31.899 for Powell. It centers on a couple of Kevins. 00:07:32.800 --> 00:07:34.259 Yeah, Kevin Hassett, who directs the National 00:07:34.259 --> 00:07:36.660 Economic Council. apparently expressed interest, 00:07:37.160 --> 00:07:39.819 and Kevin Warsh, a former Fed governor who's 00:07:39.819 --> 00:07:42.500 publicly criticized Powell. Treasury Secretary 00:07:42.500 --> 00:07:45.000 Scott Bessen is another possibility. But the 00:07:45.000 --> 00:07:47.180 real insight here, I think, is that any new Fed 00:07:47.180 --> 00:07:49.860 chairman, once confirmed, is supposed to balance 00:07:49.860 --> 00:07:53.060 inflation and unemployment. Their job isn't to 00:07:53.060 --> 00:07:55.779 make Trump look good or cut federal interest 00:07:55.779 --> 00:07:57.639 payments. Right. It's supposed to be independent. 00:07:57.819 --> 00:08:00.990 Supposed to be. So... Slashing rates and igniting 00:08:00.990 --> 00:08:03.149 inflation would likely just lead to Trump blaming 00:08:03.149 --> 00:08:05.389 and potentially trying to fire the new chairman 00:08:05.389 --> 00:08:07.209 all over again. It's kind of a recurring cycle. 00:08:07.509 --> 00:08:09.790 Cycle. OK. So from tariffs to interest rates, 00:08:10.290 --> 00:08:12.670 economic policy is clearly a massive point of 00:08:12.670 --> 00:08:15.449 friction. Beyond these immediate financial concerns, 00:08:15.610 --> 00:08:18.050 we're also seeing these persistent efforts to 00:08:18.050 --> 00:08:20.870 push through another massive spending bill, another 00:08:20.870 --> 00:08:23.970 reconciliation bill. Yeah. And what's truly remarkable 00:08:23.970 --> 00:08:26.420 here is the persistence, right? trying to pass 00:08:26.420 --> 00:08:28.240 another one, especially given how incredibly 00:08:28.240 --> 00:08:31.120 unpopular the first one proved to be. Just a 00:08:31.120 --> 00:08:33.759 quick reminder for everyone, reconciliation is 00:08:33.759 --> 00:08:36.120 that legislative process that allows certain 00:08:36.120 --> 00:08:38.279 budget -related bills to pass the Senate with 00:08:38.279 --> 00:08:41.649 just a simple majority. bypassing the usual 60 00:08:41.649 --> 00:08:44.169 vote filibuster. Right, the loophole, essentially. 00:08:44.529 --> 00:08:47.549 Kind of. And Senator Mike Crappo, a Republican 00:08:47.549 --> 00:08:49.629 from Idaho, he wants another mega bill passed 00:08:49.629 --> 00:08:52.269 this way. He's hoping the Senate parliamentarian 00:08:52.269 --> 00:08:54.850 Elizabeth McDonough changes her mind on items 00:08:54.850 --> 00:08:57.629 previously stripped out of the first bill. And 00:08:57.629 --> 00:09:00.330 Senator Ron Johnson of Wisconsin, he specifically 00:09:00.330 --> 00:09:03.389 wants to further gut Medicaid, slashing the federal 00:09:03.389 --> 00:09:06.269 government's 90 % share for states that expanded 00:09:06.269 --> 00:09:08.600 it under the ACA. He actually threatened to vote 00:09:08.600 --> 00:09:10.960 no on the first bill before caving. Right. I 00:09:10.960 --> 00:09:13.179 remember that. And House Budget Chairman Jody 00:09:13.179 --> 00:09:15.639 Arrington of Texas also supports another bill 00:09:15.639 --> 00:09:19.279 with, quote, leftovers from the first. He suggested 00:09:19.279 --> 00:09:21.580 starting maybe this fall. But the first bill 00:09:21.580 --> 00:09:24.080 was such a nightmare to pass, wasn't it? Took 00:09:24.080 --> 00:09:27.539 half a year, tons of arm twisting, and it remains 00:09:27.539 --> 00:09:30.759 deeply unpopular, starting a second one in September. 00:09:31.259 --> 00:09:34.600 That could easily bleed into 2026, which is an 00:09:34.600 --> 00:09:37.000 election year. House members must be extremely 00:09:37.000 --> 00:09:40.440 hesitant about that. Oh, definitely. Its possibility 00:09:40.440 --> 00:09:42.860 really hinges entirely on whether Trump throws 00:09:42.860 --> 00:09:45.159 his full weight behind it. And the poll data 00:09:45.159 --> 00:09:47.960 we have, it just confirms how unpopular that 00:09:47.960 --> 00:09:49.960 first bill really is. So what does the data show? 00:09:50.639 --> 00:09:53.269 Well, the YouGov poll data paints a pretty clear 00:09:53.269 --> 00:09:55.649 and frankly grim picture for the incumbent party. 00:09:56.269 --> 00:09:58.750 Only 35 % of people approve of the mega bill, 00:09:59.190 --> 00:10:01.950 while significant 53 % oppose it. That's not 00:10:01.950 --> 00:10:03.889 good. Not good at all. And on the broader direction 00:10:03.889 --> 00:10:06.330 of the country question, sentiment is overwhelmingly 00:10:06.330 --> 00:10:09.279 negative. Only 34 % think things are headed the 00:10:09.279 --> 00:10:11.919 right way compared to 57 % who believe it's the 00:10:11.919 --> 00:10:14.159 wrong direction. That's usually a very bad sign 00:10:14.159 --> 00:10:16.179 for the party in power heading into House elections. 00:10:16.519 --> 00:10:19.320 Wow, okay. What about specifics like health care? 00:10:19.580 --> 00:10:21.620 Yeah, when you look at specific funding areas, 00:10:21.879 --> 00:10:24.659 voters overwhelmingly want more support for health 00:10:24.659 --> 00:10:29.289 care. 49 % want more Medicaid funding. And Democrats 00:10:29.289 --> 00:10:31.669 are poised to highlight a potential trillion 00:10:31.669 --> 00:10:34.129 -dollar cut over a decade from the Republican 00:10:34.129 --> 00:10:36.570 plans. A CRILLION DOLLAR. Medicare is even more 00:10:36.570 --> 00:10:39.070 popular. 56 % want more funding from Medicare. 00:10:39.149 --> 00:10:43.470 Only 8 % want less. Even SNAP, Food Stamps, sees 00:10:43.470 --> 00:10:46.610 41 % wanting increased funding versus only 20 00:10:46.610 --> 00:10:48.929 % wanting less. Okay, so... People want these 00:10:48.929 --> 00:10:51.169 programs funded. What about the overall impact 00:10:51.169 --> 00:10:53.629 of the bill? Well, when asked if the bill will 00:10:53.629 --> 00:10:56.009 help or hurt the average American, a majority 00:10:56.009 --> 00:10:58.929 52 % think it will actually hurt them. Only 28 00:10:58.929 --> 00:11:02.029 % think it will help. Ouch. Yeah. And on tariffs, 00:11:02.570 --> 00:11:05.690 only a small fraction, 20%, want increases. 40 00:11:05.690 --> 00:11:07.529 % actually want them decreased. And the real 00:11:07.529 --> 00:11:10.600 kicker. A full 72 % expect tariffs to increase 00:11:10.600 --> 00:11:13.480 prices. 72%. That makes new tariffs a very tough 00:11:13.480 --> 00:11:15.360 sell for Trump. Extremely tough. His own job 00:11:15.360 --> 00:11:18.139 approval is also underwater in this poll. 53 00:11:18.139 --> 00:11:21.139 % disapprove compared to 42 % approving. That's 00:11:21.139 --> 00:11:24.039 11 points underwater. And just for context. For 00:11:24.039 --> 00:11:26.379 a quick comparison, Elon Musk's favorability 00:11:26.379 --> 00:11:29.919 is even lower. 28 points underwater, 32 % favorable, 00:11:30.080 --> 00:11:33.059 60 % unfavorable. OK. And what are the top issues 00:11:33.059 --> 00:11:34.679 people care about right now, according to this 00:11:34.679 --> 00:11:38.720 poll? Top three are inflation at 21%. the economy 00:11:38.720 --> 00:11:42.240 generally at 13%, and healthcare also at 13%. 00:11:42.240 --> 00:11:45.139 Those are the big ones. Inflation, economy, healthcare. 00:11:45.600 --> 00:11:48.179 Got it. That's a lot of challenging data to contend 00:11:48.179 --> 00:11:50.440 with. It makes you wonder how some figures are 00:11:50.440 --> 00:11:53.080 attempting to, you know... control the narrative 00:11:53.080 --> 00:11:55.080 or build their own platforms in the face of all 00:11:55.080 --> 00:11:56.960 this. Right. And what's truly interesting here 00:11:56.960 --> 00:12:00.379 is how major figures like Donald Trump and Elon 00:12:00.379 --> 00:12:04.220 Musk are navigating this complex media and political 00:12:04.220 --> 00:12:06.980 landscape, sometimes, frankly, with what appears 00:12:06.980 --> 00:12:08.759 to be a clear misunderstanding of fundamental 00:12:08.759 --> 00:12:11.019 political principles. Let's take Trump's social 00:12:11.019 --> 00:12:14.019 media company deal with Newsmax first. The sources 00:12:14.019 --> 00:12:16.080 indicate Trump primarily views the presidency 00:12:16.080 --> 00:12:18.539 as a vehicle for making money, you know, crypto, 00:12:18.720 --> 00:12:21.039 bibles, sneakers, whatever. His social media 00:12:21.039 --> 00:12:24.320 company, DJT, represents significant paper value, 00:12:24.720 --> 00:12:26.779 capitalized at five billion dollars, and Trump 00:12:26.779 --> 00:12:29.299 owns about half. Five billion! That's a lot of 00:12:29.299 --> 00:12:32.820 paper. It is. Though cashing in without crashing 00:12:32.820 --> 00:12:35.740 the stock would be tricky. This deal with Newsmax 00:12:35.740 --> 00:12:39.059 seems clearly aimed at boosting DJT stock. And 00:12:39.059 --> 00:12:41.259 it's quite an aggressive play, isn't it? His 00:12:41.259 --> 00:12:44.519 media company, TMTG, just launched Truth Plus 00:12:44.519 --> 00:12:47.960 So, this worldwide streaming platform. It's set 00:12:47.960 --> 00:12:50.960 to feature almost exclusively content from Newsmax, 00:12:51.100 --> 00:12:53.139 which is that far -right news company run by 00:12:53.139 --> 00:12:55.220 his friend Chris Ruddy. Who also happens to be 00:12:55.220 --> 00:12:57.500 Newsmax's largest shareholder. Convenient. Right. 00:12:57.700 --> 00:13:00.200 The entire platform will be Trump -friendly, 00:13:00.539 --> 00:13:03.279 America first, designed as a home for conservatives 00:13:03.279 --> 00:13:06.820 and quote, non -woke viewers. Apps available 00:13:06.820 --> 00:13:10.370 globally. Yeah, and what's curious is Trump emphasized 00:13:10.370 --> 00:13:13.330 this worldwide availability, seemingly unaware 00:13:13.330 --> 00:13:16.850 or maybe ignoring that much of the world hates 00:13:16.850 --> 00:13:19.809 him bitterly, as one source put it. So the international 00:13:19.809 --> 00:13:22.490 audience might be small. Microscopic, probably. 00:13:22.909 --> 00:13:24.730 Any significant U .S. audience might just come 00:13:24.730 --> 00:13:26.450 from those who can't get Newsmax on their cable 00:13:26.450 --> 00:13:28.610 package already. And this kind of media venture 00:13:28.610 --> 00:13:30.929 where a sitting president holds a major stake, 00:13:31.330 --> 00:13:33.649 it does raise real ethical questions, doesn't 00:13:33.649 --> 00:13:36.289 it, about fair and balanced coverage? Oh, absolutely. 00:13:36.690 --> 00:13:39.330 It could even make Fox News look like a paragon 00:13:39.330 --> 00:13:42.549 of impartiality in comparison. Serious concerns 00:13:42.549 --> 00:13:46.730 there. OK, shifting gears to another major figure 00:13:46.730 --> 00:13:50.269 trying to shake things up, Elon Musk. Let's talk 00:13:50.269 --> 00:13:52.509 about what he doesn't seem to grasp about third 00:13:52.509 --> 00:13:54.850 parties. I mean, lots of Americans are fed up 00:13:54.850 --> 00:13:57.750 with both major parties, that's clear. But simply 00:13:57.750 --> 00:13:59.789 starting another third party isn't really the 00:13:59.789 --> 00:14:02.070 solution, is it? There are tons of them already. 00:14:02.250 --> 00:14:04.620 That's the key point. There's a more fundamental 00:14:04.620 --> 00:14:07.440 issue that needs fixing first. The immediate 00:14:07.440 --> 00:14:10.700 hurdles for any new party are just immense. Take 00:14:10.700 --> 00:14:13.639 ballot access. Simply getting on the ballot in 00:14:13.639 --> 00:14:16.220 all 50 states is incredibly difficult due to 00:14:16.220 --> 00:14:18.600 all these arcane rules, and the major parties 00:14:18.600 --> 00:14:21.360 actively fight tooth and nail to keep new contenders 00:14:21.360 --> 00:14:23.419 off. Right, they protect their turf. Exactly. 00:14:23.600 --> 00:14:25.379 Then there's the first -past -the -post system 00:14:25.379 --> 00:14:27.820 we have. In single -district systems, especially 00:14:27.820 --> 00:14:30.059 for the House, a third -party candidate needs 00:14:30.059 --> 00:14:32.879 to get more votes than any other single candidate, 00:14:33.340 --> 00:14:35.879 not just a decent percentage. More than the Democrat 00:14:35.879 --> 00:14:38.179 and more than the Republican individually. Right. 00:14:38.399 --> 00:14:40.220 For president, they need more electoral votes 00:14:40.220 --> 00:14:43.860 than both. Think about Ross Perot in 1992. Got 00:14:43.860 --> 00:14:47.600 19 % of the popular vote 19 % huge number huge 00:14:47.600 --> 00:14:51.179 but zero electoral votes George Wallace in 68 00:14:51.179 --> 00:14:53.700 got 46 electoral votes, but he was very much 00:14:53.700 --> 00:14:56.100 a regional candidate. It's incredibly hard So 00:14:56.100 --> 00:14:59.500 if Musk truly wanted to drive change his energy 00:14:59.500 --> 00:15:01.879 and frankly his money would be far better spent 00:15:01.879 --> 00:15:04.440 focusing on changing the underlying laws, right? 00:15:04.580 --> 00:15:07.159 Absolutely For example, he could advocate for 00:15:07.159 --> 00:15:09.960 proportional representation for the House, elect 00:15:09.960 --> 00:15:12.899 all House members statewide, maybe. Parties get 00:15:12.899 --> 00:15:15.279 seats proportional to their vote share. If a 00:15:15.279 --> 00:15:18.259 party got, say, 10 % nationwide, they could actually 00:15:18.259 --> 00:15:21.200 win maybe 40 House seats. This is common practice 00:15:21.200 --> 00:15:23.320 in many other democratic countries. Makes sense. 00:15:23.600 --> 00:15:25.980 What about for president? Another impactful change 00:15:25.980 --> 00:15:28.299 could be pushing for fusion voting for presidential 00:15:28.299 --> 00:15:30.820 campaigns. That's where multiple parties can 00:15:30.820 --> 00:15:33.019 nominate the same candidate and all their votes 00:15:33.019 --> 00:15:35.679 are added together. It used to be common here 00:15:35.679 --> 00:15:37.440 and still exists in New York and Connecticut 00:15:37.440 --> 00:15:40.740 for all offices. It lets a voter support a smaller 00:15:40.740 --> 00:15:43.740 party. show their preference without feeling 00:15:43.740 --> 00:15:46.019 like they're wasting their vote or endangering 00:15:46.019 --> 00:15:49.200 their second choice. You could vote, say, Working 00:15:49.200 --> 00:15:51.500 Families Party for Kamala Harris or Conservative 00:15:51.500 --> 00:15:54.100 Party for Donald Trump. A party getting even 00:15:54.100 --> 00:15:56.460 10, 15 percent of the vote that way becomes a 00:15:56.460 --> 00:15:59.039 major political force. But that requires changing 00:15:59.039 --> 00:16:01.539 laws, which takes time and effort. And that's 00:16:01.539 --> 00:16:04.320 the real insight, isn't it? Musk seems to lack 00:16:04.320 --> 00:16:07.289 the patience. for that long, tedious process. 00:16:08.009 --> 00:16:10.009 So unfortunately, his current efforts and money 00:16:10.009 --> 00:16:13.289 are likely, as the source says, to come to naught. 00:16:13.730 --> 00:16:16.470 Likely to fizzle out. Okay. Beyond these individual 00:16:16.470 --> 00:16:19.070 players, how are the actual parties gearing up? 00:16:19.259 --> 00:16:21.519 especially when it comes to the big money in 00:16:21.519 --> 00:16:23.519 politics. We're hearing about record -breaking 00:16:23.519 --> 00:16:25.919 fundraising from the Republican Senate Super 00:16:25.919 --> 00:16:28.080 PAC. Yeah, this really highlights the strategic 00:16:28.080 --> 00:16:30.440 shifts happening in political funding. The Senate 00:16:30.440 --> 00:16:33.440 Leadership Fund or SLF, that's the main Republican 00:16:33.440 --> 00:16:36.139 Senate Super PAC. Remember, these groups can 00:16:36.139 --> 00:16:38.820 raise and spend unlimited money. Right, the independent 00:16:38.820 --> 00:16:42.139 expenditure groups. Exactly. They raise an astonishing 00:16:42.139 --> 00:16:46.720 $85 million in the first half of 2025. That's 00:16:46.720 --> 00:16:48.700 double the previous record for an off -year first 00:16:48.700 --> 00:16:51.639 half. Double the record. Wow. Huge numbers. It's 00:16:51.639 --> 00:16:53.879 a very strong start and certainly a big win for 00:16:53.879 --> 00:16:56.460 the new Senate Majority Leader John Thune. But 00:16:56.460 --> 00:16:58.360 what's also notable is the leadership change 00:16:58.360 --> 00:17:00.960 within the SLF. It's now run by Alex Latcham 00:17:00.960 --> 00:17:03.460 and Corey Gardner. And they're working in close 00:17:03.460 --> 00:17:06.059 cooperation with Donald Trump. That's a stark 00:17:06.059 --> 00:17:08.500 contrast to its past leadership under Stephen 00:17:08.500 --> 00:17:11.339 Law, who was a close Mitch McConnell ally. Ah, 00:17:11.380 --> 00:17:13.420 the power shift. Yeah. The sentiment is clear. 00:17:13.980 --> 00:17:16.900 Trumpish guys do better now than McConnellish 00:17:16.900 --> 00:17:19.289 guys. And how are they planning to spend all 00:17:19.289 --> 00:17:22.430 that money? Any changes in strategy? Yes. The 00:17:22.430 --> 00:17:25.170 SLF plans to spend money much earlier than normal 00:17:25.170 --> 00:17:27.910 this cycle. And there's a greater focus on digital 00:17:27.910 --> 00:17:29.890 and streaming platforms. They're trying to reach 00:17:29.890 --> 00:17:32.349 those non -traditional, often younger, voters 00:17:32.349 --> 00:17:34.369 who don't watch regular TV but maybe showed up 00:17:34.369 --> 00:17:37.130 for Trump in 2024. The goal is to mobilize them 00:17:37.130 --> 00:17:39.910 for the 2026 midterms. Mobilize them early. OK, 00:17:39.910 --> 00:17:41.710 so where is that money going to be deployed? 00:17:41.950 --> 00:17:44.349 Are any specific races already getting early 00:17:44.349 --> 00:17:47.339 attention? Well, Looking at the broader implications, 00:17:47.680 --> 00:17:50.420 it's all about strategic targeting, right? And 00:17:50.420 --> 00:17:52.960 some states are already showing signs of vulnerability 00:17:52.960 --> 00:17:55.839 for Republicans, prompting that early investment. 00:17:56.619 --> 00:17:58.859 For instance, the SLF is already advertising 00:17:58.859 --> 00:18:02.099 in Nebraska. Nebraska, why Nebraska? Because 00:18:02.099 --> 00:18:04.079 Senator Pete Ricketts, the Republican incumbent, 00:18:04.240 --> 00:18:06.819 has a surprisingly low approval rating, just 00:18:06.819 --> 00:18:10.839 38%. His challenger is independent Dan Osborne. 00:18:11.099 --> 00:18:13.140 He's a former union leader who actually put up 00:18:13.140 --> 00:18:16.400 an impressive showing back in 2024, getting 47 00:18:16.400 --> 00:18:19.599 % of the vote against Senator Deb Fischer. 47 00:18:19.599 --> 00:18:22.180 % as an independent. That's strong. Very strong. 00:18:22.319 --> 00:18:25.000 He's now running against rickets. He's much better 00:18:25.000 --> 00:18:27.160 known this time around, and he expects more out 00:18:27.160 --> 00:18:28.859 -of -state money to flow in. So it's shaping 00:18:28.859 --> 00:18:30.700 up to be a compelling narrative there, isn't 00:18:30.700 --> 00:18:33.599 it? Osborne, the mechanic, framing it as the 00:18:33.599 --> 00:18:36.319 ordinary working guy against the son of a billionaire. 00:18:36.539 --> 00:18:38.440 Exactly. That's the frame. And with Trump not 00:18:38.440 --> 00:18:41.440 on the ticket in 2026, some marginal Republicans 00:18:41.440 --> 00:18:43.420 might just stay home. What's also interesting 00:18:43.420 --> 00:18:46.220 strategically, Democrats are likely to hold back 00:18:46.220 --> 00:18:48.339 from running their own candidate. They'll probably 00:18:48.339 --> 00:18:50.500 direct their voters to support Osborne instead. 00:18:50.759 --> 00:18:52.849 Consolidate the opposition. Right. and Osborne 00:18:52.849 --> 00:18:55.710 has pledged not to caucus with either party if 00:18:55.710 --> 00:18:59.069 he wins. So picture this. If Republicans end 00:18:59.069 --> 00:19:02.930 up with 49 Senate seats, Democrats with 50, and 00:19:02.930 --> 00:19:06.609 Osborne wins Nebraska, he would actually wield 00:19:06.609 --> 00:19:09.910 enormous power. The deciding vote. Potentially. 00:19:10.309 --> 00:19:13.490 And that's a prospect Nebraska voters might just 00:19:13.490 --> 00:19:15.309 favor, given his independent stance. It makes 00:19:15.309 --> 00:19:17.930 Nebraska suddenly very interesting. Very interesting 00:19:17.930 --> 00:19:21.579 indeed. OK, and on the Democratic side, the DCCC, 00:19:21.740 --> 00:19:23.319 the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee, 00:19:23.960 --> 00:19:26.339 they have their own strategic focus, right? Something 00:19:26.339 --> 00:19:28.819 about rural hospitals. That's right. The recent 00:19:28.819 --> 00:19:31.480 mega bill signed by Donald Trump, it includes 00:19:31.480 --> 00:19:33.759 changes to funding formulas that may force many 00:19:33.759 --> 00:19:36.259 rural hospitals to close. Close entirely. That's 00:19:36.259 --> 00:19:38.380 huge. It could be devastating in some areas. 00:19:38.740 --> 00:19:41.940 So the DCCC plans to strategically target 35 00:19:41.940 --> 00:19:44.160 Republican districts where these hospitals are 00:19:44.160 --> 00:19:46.400 threatened, really exploiting this issue. How 00:19:46.400 --> 00:19:48.319 are they doing that? Ads have already started 00:19:48.319 --> 00:19:51.680 running and could continue indefinitely. They're 00:19:51.680 --> 00:19:54.500 using a very straightforward, impactful message. 00:19:55.200 --> 00:19:57.539 Congressman X voted for a bill that may force 00:19:57.539 --> 00:20:00.200 your beloved local hospital to close due to lack 00:20:00.200 --> 00:20:03.539 of federal funds. Time to get rid of him. Direct 00:20:03.539 --> 00:20:06.839 and potent, especially in rural areas. Incredibly 00:20:06.839 --> 00:20:09.079 potent, especially where the nearest alternative 00:20:09.079 --> 00:20:12.299 hospital could be a hundred miles away. This 00:20:12.299 --> 00:20:15.170 hits home. The ads will also highlight that, 00:20:15.170 --> 00:20:18.390 starting in 2027, millions of people are projected 00:20:18.390 --> 00:20:20.569 to lose their Medicaid due to other cuts in the 00:20:20.569 --> 00:20:22.650 bill. Even though that's after the midterms. 00:20:22.869 --> 00:20:24.869 Right. While those cuts won't actually begin 00:20:24.869 --> 00:20:27.910 before the 2026 midterms, carefully worded ads 00:20:27.910 --> 00:20:30.670 can still use scare tactics. Something like, 00:20:31.009 --> 00:20:32.849 the Republican bill might cause you to lose your 00:20:32.849 --> 00:20:35.190 health insurance next year. They can use that 00:20:35.190 --> 00:20:37.410 to lay blame squarely on incumbent Republicans, 00:20:37.710 --> 00:20:40.289 because frankly, few voters understand the precise 00:20:40.289 --> 00:20:43.049 details and timelines of these complex legislative 00:20:43.049 --> 00:20:45.950 changes. So a powerful, if potentially slightly 00:20:45.950 --> 00:20:49.569 misleading, message based on fear. Politics often 00:20:49.569 --> 00:20:52.029 involves shaping perception around complex realities, 00:20:52.190 --> 00:20:54.849 doesn't it? It certainly does. Okay, so putting 00:20:54.849 --> 00:20:57.119 it all together then. We've explored the internal 00:20:57.119 --> 00:20:59.019 pressures bearing down on Donald Trump from his 00:20:59.019 --> 00:21:01.599 own base and from Congress. We've looked at the 00:21:01.599 --> 00:21:04.019 pervasive economic anxiety surrounding interest 00:21:04.019 --> 00:21:07.700 rates and that deeply unpopular mega bill. We've 00:21:07.700 --> 00:21:10.460 also dissected the challenges faced by third 00:21:10.460 --> 00:21:13.880 parties like Musk's efforts and the really strategic 00:21:13.880 --> 00:21:16.019 positioning of political funding and electoral 00:21:16.019 --> 00:21:18.059 tactics as we look toward upcoming elections. 00:21:18.220 --> 00:21:20.099 Yeah, the sources today collectively reveal a 00:21:20.099 --> 00:21:22.509 political landscape that's just in constant, 00:21:22.509 --> 00:21:24.950 often unpredictable flux. We've seen various 00:21:24.950 --> 00:21:27.329 actors trying to navigate and frankly sometimes 00:21:27.329 --> 00:21:30.390 exploit these rapid changes from, you know, base 00:21:30.390 --> 00:21:32.849 revolt to record -breaking fundraising. It really 00:21:32.849 --> 00:21:36.210 is a complex interplay of power, policy, and 00:21:36.210 --> 00:21:38.789 that ever -shifting public perception. The consistent 00:21:38.789 --> 00:21:40.410 thread running through all these narratives seems 00:21:40.410 --> 00:21:42.349 to be unpredictability, doesn't it? And this 00:21:42.349 --> 00:21:44.509 relentless battle for influence. It really shows 00:21:44.509 --> 00:21:49.170 how even seemingly small policy changes or, like 00:21:49.170 --> 00:21:51.690 you said, individual races like the one in Nebraska 00:21:51.690 --> 00:21:54.789 can have potentially massive electoral consequences 00:21:54.789 --> 00:21:57.589 down the line. So as you, our listener, consider 00:21:57.589 --> 00:21:59.789 all this, maybe think about how these specific 00:21:59.789 --> 00:22:02.329 detailed skirmishes like the fate of rural hospitals 00:22:02.329 --> 00:22:04.529 or that single independent Senate candidate in 00:22:04.529 --> 00:22:07.049 Nebraska might actually ripple outwards and ultimately 00:22:07.049 --> 00:22:08.839 determine the balance of power for years to come. 00:22:09.319 --> 00:22:11.960 What seemingly local issue in your area could 00:22:11.960 --> 00:22:14.359 be the next flashpoint that unexpectedly changes 00:22:14.359 --> 00:22:16.619 the national political conversation? Something 00:22:16.619 --> 00:22:17.220 to think about.