WEBVTT 00:00:00.000 --> 00:00:01.760 Welcome to the Deep Dive, where we cut through 00:00:01.760 --> 00:00:05.059 the noise and really pull out the crucial insights 00:00:05.059 --> 00:00:07.519 from a stack of sources, turning complex topics 00:00:07.519 --> 00:00:09.480 into clear, compelling understanding for you. 00:00:09.900 --> 00:00:11.919 Today we're plunging into a really rich collection 00:00:11.919 --> 00:00:14.439 of material, recovering the latest legal clashes, 00:00:14.720 --> 00:00:17.949 challenging government policy, the... Well, surprising 00:00:17.949 --> 00:00:20.390 economic ripple effects from shifts in immigration, 00:00:20.929 --> 00:00:22.949 the intricate landscape with the U .S. economy 00:00:22.949 --> 00:00:25.550 and even an early glimpse into future presidential 00:00:25.550 --> 00:00:27.789 ambitions. Yeah, it's quite a journey we're taking. 00:00:27.870 --> 00:00:29.949 It connects the dots between these urgent judicial 00:00:29.949 --> 00:00:32.009 decisions, the actual prices you're seeing on 00:00:32.009 --> 00:00:34.770 the grocery shelf, the national debt and, you 00:00:34.770 --> 00:00:37.090 know, the political maneuvering that's already 00:00:37.090 --> 00:00:39.049 well underway for twenty twenty eight. Right. 00:00:39.369 --> 00:00:41.090 Our mission today is basically to give you a 00:00:41.090 --> 00:00:43.329 shortcut to being truly well informed on these 00:00:43.329 --> 00:00:47.780 diverse yet deeply interconnected issues. OK, 00:00:47.820 --> 00:00:49.600 let's unpack this. So we're kicking things off 00:00:49.600 --> 00:00:52.060 with a really fascinating legal battle. It's 00:00:52.060 --> 00:00:54.299 just reached the Supreme Court and it's shining 00:00:54.299 --> 00:00:56.320 a spotlight on a lesser known process called 00:00:56.320 --> 00:00:59.200 the shadow docket. What exactly is the shadow 00:00:59.200 --> 00:01:01.460 docket? And I guess why should we care about 00:01:01.460 --> 00:01:04.700 this case? Well, the shadow docket, it refers 00:01:04.700 --> 00:01:08.019 to the Supreme Court's emergency orders and rulings. 00:01:08.060 --> 00:01:09.980 These are often made very quickly, sometimes 00:01:09.980 --> 00:01:13.079 in just days or even hours. And crucially with. 00:01:13.209 --> 00:01:16.370 minimal public scrutiny or full argumentation 00:01:16.370 --> 00:01:19.310 like you see in regular cases. What's particularly 00:01:19.310 --> 00:01:22.590 striking here is just the speed, how fast this 00:01:22.590 --> 00:01:25.310 specific case escalated. It was brought by the 00:01:25.310 --> 00:01:27.450 American Federation of Government Employees and 00:01:27.450 --> 00:01:30.310 other unions, challenging President Trump's February 00:01:30.310 --> 00:01:33.409 executive order and an OMB memo. Right, the ones 00:01:33.409 --> 00:01:35.569 calling for large scale reductions in force, 00:01:35.810 --> 00:01:39.310 the RIFs. Exactly, RIFs across federal agencies. 00:01:39.609 --> 00:01:41.489 And the unions aren't just worried about preparations, 00:01:41.569 --> 00:01:45.290 they're arguing that Agencies are already dismantling 00:01:45.290 --> 00:01:48.310 entire offices and firing half or more of all 00:01:48.310 --> 00:01:50.310 agency employees. That sounds pretty serious. 00:01:50.709 --> 00:01:52.510 So how did this end up at the Supreme Court's 00:01:52.510 --> 00:01:55.370 emergency door so fast? Well, the district court 00:01:55.370 --> 00:01:58.349 initially granted a preliminary injunction, basically 00:01:58.349 --> 00:02:00.969 pausing these actions. But then the Ninth Circuit 00:02:00.969 --> 00:02:03.790 denied a stay request from the White House. So 00:02:03.790 --> 00:02:07.090 the administration, they bypassed the usual appellate 00:02:07.090 --> 00:02:09.830 process and took it straight to the Supreme Court 00:02:09.830 --> 00:02:13.770 for an emergency stay. Wow. And this kind of 00:02:13.770 --> 00:02:16.550 rapid escalation, it does raise questions about 00:02:16.550 --> 00:02:18.770 how different litigants, especially the government, 00:02:18.870 --> 00:02:21.930 can get such swift access to the court. So on 00:02:21.930 --> 00:02:24.449 Tuesday, the Supreme Court granted that stay. 00:02:24.569 --> 00:02:26.590 It was a very brief order, just two paragraphs. 00:02:26.629 --> 00:02:28.430 That's right, very brief. And they actually stated 00:02:28.430 --> 00:02:31.550 that the executive order and the OMB memo were 00:02:31.550 --> 00:02:34.469 likely lawful, which put the preliminary injunction 00:02:34.469 --> 00:02:38.310 on hold. But does that mean they've decided the 00:02:38.310 --> 00:02:41.259 actual firings themselves are legal? Ah, that's 00:02:41.259 --> 00:02:43.439 a really crucial point. No, the court was very 00:02:43.439 --> 00:02:45.879 explicit. They said, and I'm quoting here, we 00:02:45.879 --> 00:02:48.800 express no view on the legality of any agency 00:02:48.800 --> 00:02:52.000 RIF and reorganization plan produced or approved 00:02:52.000 --> 00:02:54.719 pursuant to the executive order and memorandum. 00:02:55.120 --> 00:02:57.699 OK, so they allowed the order to stand, but they 00:02:57.699 --> 00:02:59.900 completely sidestepped the issue of the actual 00:02:59.900 --> 00:03:02.560 firings. Precisely. So that means the legal fight 00:03:02.560 --> 00:03:04.740 over whether those RIFs are truly lawful. Well, 00:03:04.800 --> 00:03:06.599 that's still very much alive. It's not settled. 00:03:06.879 --> 00:03:10.319 And we know. Associate Justice Sonia Sotomayor 00:03:10.319 --> 00:03:13.840 voted with the majority. She wrote a concurrence, 00:03:14.419 --> 00:03:17.099 while Associate Justice Katanji Brown Jackson 00:03:17.099 --> 00:03:20.340 dissented. What were their main arguments? Justice 00:03:20.340 --> 00:03:23.360 Jackson's dissent really zeroed in on the court 00:03:23.360 --> 00:03:25.659 majority's increasing reliance on the shadow 00:03:25.659 --> 00:03:28.240 docket. Right. She argues they're deciding major 00:03:28.240 --> 00:03:30.360 cases without knowing all the facts, without 00:03:30.360 --> 00:03:33.099 the full briefing process. This emergency docket, 00:03:33.120 --> 00:03:36.199 she says, it's meant for only the most rare and 00:03:36.199 --> 00:03:38.520 unique circumstances because, you know, it lacks 00:03:38.520 --> 00:03:40.819 transparency and carries a higher risk of error. 00:03:41.139 --> 00:03:42.900 And didn't she also make a point about the lower 00:03:42.900 --> 00:03:45.389 court? Yes, that was her second point, that the 00:03:45.389 --> 00:03:47.050 district court, which actually heard the evidence 00:03:47.050 --> 00:03:49.689 and saw the witnesses, is really in the best 00:03:49.689 --> 00:03:51.969 position to evaluate the facts on the ground. 00:03:52.050 --> 00:03:55.069 And that court found evidence that RFs were indeed 00:03:55.069 --> 00:03:57.189 happening already, not just being planned. I 00:03:57.189 --> 00:04:00.210 see. So what does Sotomayor say in her concurrence, 00:04:00.370 --> 00:04:04.129 then? Just to Sotomayor. Well, she offered what 00:04:04.129 --> 00:04:07.009 some might see as maybe a small concession, a 00:04:07.009 --> 00:04:09.759 bone perhaps, to the district court. She said 00:04:09.759 --> 00:04:11.719 they are free to consider those questions in 00:04:11.719 --> 00:04:14.280 the first instance regarding the actual RIFs. 00:04:14.340 --> 00:04:16.139 Well, what does that mean practically? Well, 00:04:16.240 --> 00:04:18.639 practically it means more discovery, more review 00:04:18.639 --> 00:04:21.480 of detail agency plans, more legal wrangling, 00:04:21.680 --> 00:04:24.560 further delays. Right. And all while the actions 00:04:24.560 --> 00:04:26.500 the unions are challenging could potentially 00:04:26.500 --> 00:04:30.040 continue. Exactly. The dismantling of these congressionally 00:04:30.040 --> 00:04:32.810 authorized agencies could keep going. The real 00:04:32.810 --> 00:04:35.089 insight here for you is how this shadow docket 00:04:35.089 --> 00:04:37.769 seems to be quickly becoming a major tool for 00:04:37.769 --> 00:04:40.730 significant policy shifts, potentially sidestepping 00:04:40.730 --> 00:04:43.509 the usual more transparent debate and making 00:04:43.509 --> 00:04:45.610 it maybe harder to challenge government actions 00:04:45.610 --> 00:04:49.089 effectively. OK, from the complexities of Supreme 00:04:49.089 --> 00:04:51.550 Court emergency powers, let's shift focus now. 00:04:51.810 --> 00:04:54.149 We're looking at an area where policy decisions 00:04:54.149 --> 00:04:56.910 are having very real and sometimes pretty surprising 00:04:56.910 --> 00:04:59.129 consequences, especially in a sector as fundamental 00:04:59.129 --> 00:05:01.889 as agriculture. Yeah, this next bit is interesting. 00:05:02.120 --> 00:05:05.240 Our sources introduce us to the Secretary of 00:05:05.240 --> 00:05:08.560 Agriculture, Rollins. Now she has an impressive 00:05:08.560 --> 00:05:11.879 resume on paper law firm work, clerking for a 00:05:11.879 --> 00:05:14.420 federal judge, ran a right -wing think tank for 00:05:14.420 --> 00:05:17.699 15 years, but what's notable, kind of jumps out, 00:05:17.800 --> 00:05:20.040 is that despite these qualifications, she hasn't 00:05:20.040 --> 00:05:22.259 really had a direct connection to agriculture 00:05:22.259 --> 00:05:26.060 itself in about three decades. 30 years, wow. 00:05:26.379 --> 00:05:28.139 So that immediately raises questions, doesn't 00:05:28.139 --> 00:05:30.199 it, about how... well, how in touch you might 00:05:30.199 --> 00:05:32.240 be with the industry's day -to -day realities. 00:05:32.740 --> 00:05:34.720 It certainly does. And this is where it gets 00:05:34.720 --> 00:05:37.720 particularly impactful for you listening at home. 00:05:38.319 --> 00:05:40.600 The Trump administration's immigration policy, 00:05:40.620 --> 00:05:43.519 well, it has numerous vulnerabilities. Achilles 00:05:43.519 --> 00:05:45.699 heels, as our sources put it. Especially for 00:05:45.699 --> 00:05:48.220 key sectors like agriculture. Exactly. Agriculture 00:05:48.220 --> 00:05:50.459 relies really heavily on affordable labor. And 00:05:50.459 --> 00:05:52.860 often that means undocumented workers. Without 00:05:52.860 --> 00:05:55.180 these workers, you know, things like meat, milk. 00:05:55.360 --> 00:05:58.399 crops. They either won't make it to market or 00:05:58.399 --> 00:06:00.180 they're going to become vastly more expensive 00:06:00.180 --> 00:06:02.360 for everyone. And are we already seeing effects? 00:06:02.779 --> 00:06:06.019 We are. Yeah. Workers, both undocumented and 00:06:06.019 --> 00:06:08.500 legal immigrants, are apparently increasingly 00:06:08.500 --> 00:06:12.060 failing to show up for shifts on farms, dairies, 00:06:12.319 --> 00:06:15.759 meatpacking plants. basically out of fear of 00:06:15.759 --> 00:06:18.019 enforcement actions. Which leads us to wonder, 00:06:18.160 --> 00:06:20.339 right, what happens to perishable goods, like 00:06:20.339 --> 00:06:22.860 you mentioned strawberries earlier, if they aren't 00:06:22.860 --> 00:06:25.139 harvested right on time? They just rot. They 00:06:25.139 --> 00:06:27.920 rot in the fields. It's that simple and that 00:06:27.920 --> 00:06:29.759 potentially damaging to the food supply. And 00:06:29.759 --> 00:06:32.000 we are already seeing grocery prices trend upward. 00:06:32.639 --> 00:06:35.300 Our sources remind us the pandemic taught us 00:06:35.300 --> 00:06:37.899 it takes about, what, three to four months for 00:06:37.899 --> 00:06:40.240 these kinds of supply chain disruptions to fully 00:06:40.240 --> 00:06:42.360 show up in the prices we pay. That's right. So 00:06:42.360 --> 00:06:44.540 the full impact might still be, you know, working 00:06:44.540 --> 00:06:46.339 its way through the system. Which brings us to 00:06:46.339 --> 00:06:49.339 what one source rather dramatically calls fantasy 00:06:49.339 --> 00:06:52.860 land. Secretary Rollins's response. Right. Fantasyland. 00:06:53.360 --> 00:06:55.639 So Secretary Rollins, responding proactively, 00:06:55.819 --> 00:06:57.860 stated pretty clearly there would be no amnesty 00:06:57.860 --> 00:07:01.079 for migrant workers. OK. Instead, she suggested 00:07:01.079 --> 00:07:04.160 turning the problem into an opportunity. An opportunity. 00:07:04.560 --> 00:07:06.920 By asserting that Medicaid recipients will now 00:07:06.920 --> 00:07:09.959 have plenty of work available to them in agriculture. 00:07:10.360 --> 00:07:13.790 OK. Wait. replacing experienced farm labor with 00:07:13.790 --> 00:07:15.990 Medicaid recipients. Our sources pointed out 00:07:15.990 --> 00:07:18.589 some significant critiques of that plan, didn't 00:07:18.589 --> 00:07:21.230 they? They certainly did. Several big ones. First, 00:07:21.350 --> 00:07:24.069 the wages. Farmwork wages are generally just 00:07:24.069 --> 00:07:26.189 not acceptable to the vast majority of Americans. 00:07:26.389 --> 00:07:29.629 It's low pay. And second? Second, it's incredibly 00:07:29.629 --> 00:07:33.250 hard, physical labor, backbreaking work, often 00:07:33.250 --> 00:07:36.069 in difficult conditions. So the overlap between 00:07:36.069 --> 00:07:38.009 the group of people who genuinely need Medicaid 00:07:38.410 --> 00:07:41.569 And the group of people physically able and willing 00:07:41.569 --> 00:07:44.430 to do intense farm labor for low wages is likely 00:07:44.430 --> 00:07:46.790 very, very small. Makes sense. And there's a 00:07:46.790 --> 00:07:49.930 third point, too. about the Big Beautiful bill. 00:07:50.089 --> 00:07:52.589 Yes. It's argued that the whole point of the 00:07:52.589 --> 00:07:55.269 Big Beautiful bill, which seems to be the administration's 00:07:55.269 --> 00:07:57.189 signature economic initiative, though details 00:07:57.189 --> 00:07:59.470 are a bit murky, was actually meant to remove 00:07:59.470 --> 00:08:01.509 people from the Medicaid system, probably to 00:08:01.509 --> 00:08:04.389 fund tax cuts, not to compel them into strenuous 00:08:04.389 --> 00:08:07.470 farm work. It seems contradictory. So the administration 00:08:07.470 --> 00:08:10.470 faces a looming problem here, and not much time. 00:08:10.620 --> 00:08:14.040 Very little time. The Rollins plan, as described, 00:08:14.519 --> 00:08:17.319 risks serious price shocks, like eggs jumping 00:08:17.319 --> 00:08:20.079 to $10 a dozen. That's the kind of figure being 00:08:20.079 --> 00:08:22.319 thrown around. Ouch. What's the alternative? 00:08:22.660 --> 00:08:26.029 The alternative would be... to, well, adjust 00:08:26.029 --> 00:08:28.829 policy somehow to keep the current agricultural 00:08:28.829 --> 00:08:32.309 workers on the job. And interestingly, President 00:08:32.309 --> 00:08:34.649 Trump himself has apparently hinted at something 00:08:34.649 --> 00:08:36.889 along those lines. But that creates a communication 00:08:36.889 --> 00:08:38.710 challenge, doesn't it? Trying to send two messages 00:08:38.710 --> 00:08:41.669 at once. A huge challenge! How do you communicate, 00:08:42.210 --> 00:08:44.889 we are cracking down hard on immigrants, and 00:08:44.889 --> 00:08:47.049 also, hey, immigrants, don't worry, we won't 00:08:47.049 --> 00:08:49.029 come round you up at your essential farm job. 00:08:49.340 --> 00:08:52.120 It's tricky. Yeah. Our sources also mentioned 00:08:52.120 --> 00:08:54.899 a recent ICE raid in Los Angeles. Reportedly, 00:08:55.000 --> 00:08:57.580 it detained no one but did disrupt summer camps. 00:08:57.820 --> 00:08:59.799 Maybe an indicator that even these high profile 00:08:59.799 --> 00:09:02.440 raids are yielding less in terms of actual detentions 00:09:02.440 --> 00:09:04.639 or perhaps getting less attention. It's hard 00:09:04.639 --> 00:09:07.019 to say for sure. So this whole situation, it 00:09:07.019 --> 00:09:10.200 really highlights the complex, sometimes contradictory 00:09:10.200 --> 00:09:13.100 nature of policy and how it directly impacts 00:09:13.100 --> 00:09:15.259 your everyday life, like right down to your grocery 00:09:15.259 --> 00:09:17.740 bill. Absolutely. It's a clear connection. OK, 00:09:18.000 --> 00:09:19.960 let's transition now to the broader economic 00:09:19.960 --> 00:09:22.220 picture. We need to talk about U .S. fiscal health, 00:09:22.539 --> 00:09:25.500 inflation, monetary policy. Our sources pull 00:09:25.500 --> 00:09:28.159 together insights from financial experts, Chris 00:09:28.159 --> 00:09:30.500 Whelan and Keith, from a recent meeting, July 00:09:30.500 --> 00:09:33.679 2025. Right. And maybe to set the stage, it helps 00:09:33.679 --> 00:09:36.059 to look at the historical context of U .S. debt. 00:09:36.340 --> 00:09:38.779 Just for a moment. For the first 150 years of 00:09:38.779 --> 00:09:41.379 the country, up until about 1940, the national 00:09:41.379 --> 00:09:43.620 debt actually never went above 45 percent of 00:09:43.620 --> 00:09:46.570 GDP. Never above 45 percent. OK. Then World War 00:09:46.570 --> 00:09:50.509 II caused a huge spike, up to 112%. But impressively, 00:09:50.610 --> 00:09:53.750 it fell back down to 45 % again by 1960. Wow, 00:09:53.809 --> 00:09:56.269 that's quite a swing back. So where are we now? 00:09:56.450 --> 00:09:58.769 Well, fast forward to today, and the US faces 00:09:58.769 --> 00:10:02.470 a frankly staggering $40 trillion in outstanding 00:10:02.470 --> 00:10:05.210 debt. $40 trillion. And get this. What used to 00:10:05.210 --> 00:10:07.730 be considered a significant annual deficit, maybe 00:10:07.730 --> 00:10:11.590 1 .5 % to 2 % of GDP, that level is now just 00:10:11.590 --> 00:10:13.830 the expected annual rate of increase in the debt. 00:10:13.950 --> 00:10:16.250 So the rate of increase today is what used to 00:10:16.250 --> 00:10:17.950 be the whole deficit. That really puts it in 00:10:17.950 --> 00:10:20.350 perspective. It does. And the deficit projections 00:10:20.350 --> 00:10:23.090 are also pretty concerning. New legislation like 00:10:23.090 --> 00:10:25.409 that big, beautiful bill we keep mentioning is 00:10:25.409 --> 00:10:27.990 expected to materially increase deficits by an 00:10:27.990 --> 00:10:30.830 average of 1 .5 percent of GDP per year between 00:10:30.830 --> 00:10:34.169 2026 and 2029. And the biggest jumps are soon. 00:10:34.350 --> 00:10:36.629 Yeah, the largest increases are forecasted for 00:10:36.629 --> 00:10:40.289 2026 and 2027. The deficit could rise from five 00:10:40.289 --> 00:10:42.330 point five percent to seven point zero percent 00:10:42.330 --> 00:10:45.830 of GDP in 2026 and from five point two percent 00:10:45.830 --> 00:10:48.809 up to seven point zero percent again in 2027. 00:10:49.690 --> 00:10:51.529 These are numbers we typically only see during 00:10:51.529 --> 00:10:55.309 major crises like deep recessions or wars. OK, 00:10:55.389 --> 00:10:57.090 so debt and deficits are a big concern. What 00:10:57.090 --> 00:11:00.019 about inflation? Is it cooling off? Well, inflation 00:11:00.019 --> 00:11:03.179 remains stubbornly high and sticky. That's the 00:11:03.179 --> 00:11:05.960 phrase our sources use. Demand -driven core PCE 00:11:05.960 --> 00:11:08.240 inflation. That's personal consumption expenditures. 00:11:08.700 --> 00:11:10.899 The measure the Fed watches closely. It's elevated. 00:11:10.980 --> 00:11:12.860 And there are really no clear signs of rapid 00:11:12.860 --> 00:11:15.139 disinflation, of it coming down quickly. Sticky, 00:11:15.259 --> 00:11:17.740 like even rent expectations are high. Exactly. 00:11:17.919 --> 00:11:20.100 Even one -year rent price expectations are high. 00:11:20.179 --> 00:11:21.899 And that really contributes to the stickiness. 00:11:21.940 --> 00:11:23.720 It makes it harder for overall inflation to fall 00:11:23.720 --> 00:11:25.220 back to target. So where are the projections 00:11:25.220 --> 00:11:27.889 heading? Well, headline CPI, the Consumer Price 00:11:27.889 --> 00:11:30.149 Index, its year -over -year growth peaked above 00:11:30.149 --> 00:11:34.210 8 % back in 2022. It is projected to moderate, 00:11:34.370 --> 00:11:37.710 but... And this is key. It's expected to remain 00:11:37.710 --> 00:11:40.330 above the Federal Reserve's 2 % target all the 00:11:40.330 --> 00:11:43.929 way through 2026. Still above 2 % through 2026, 00:11:44.149 --> 00:11:46.809 so hovering around. Hovering around maybe 2 .5 00:11:46.809 --> 00:11:50.330 % to 3 .0 % in the coming years, which really 00:11:50.330 --> 00:11:53.190 prompts the question, is the Fed's current strategy 00:11:53.190 --> 00:11:55.909 keeping rates high truly working as intended, 00:11:56.350 --> 00:11:58.570 or is it maybe too restrictive now? And some 00:11:58.570 --> 00:12:00.330 experts think the Fed waited too long or should 00:12:00.330 --> 00:12:03.029 have cut rates earlier. Yes. Some argue they 00:12:03.029 --> 00:12:05.129 should have cut rates earlier. They view the 00:12:05.129 --> 00:12:08.710 current policy rates as punitive, too high. They 00:12:08.710 --> 00:12:11.269 suggest an ideal Fed funds rate might be more 00:12:11.269 --> 00:12:13.950 in the low 4 % to high 3 % range. But cutting 00:12:13.950 --> 00:12:15.590 rates isn't without risk either, right? What 00:12:15.590 --> 00:12:17.629 happens if they cut too quickly? That's the dilemma. 00:12:17.809 --> 00:12:20.169 Cutting rates too quickly carry significant risks. 00:12:20.389 --> 00:12:22.049 It could steepen the yield curve. That's the 00:12:22.049 --> 00:12:23.629 relationship between short -term and long -term 00:12:23.629 --> 00:12:25.789 interest rates. Right. And that could cause mark 00:12:25.789 --> 00:12:27.889 -to -market losses for banks, meaning the value 00:12:27.889 --> 00:12:30.330 of assets on their books falls. It could destabilize 00:12:30.330 --> 00:12:33.129 things. And Jerome Powell's future adds another 00:12:33.129 --> 00:12:35.590 layer. Yeah, Jerome Powell, the current Fed chair. 00:12:35.929 --> 00:12:38.590 He may remain as a Fed governor until his term 00:12:38.590 --> 00:12:41.210 it ends in 2028, even if he isn't reappointed 00:12:41.210 --> 00:12:44.389 as chairman when that term is up. So that adds 00:12:44.389 --> 00:12:46.809 both some continuity, but also maybe a degree 00:12:46.809 --> 00:12:50.610 of uncertainty to future policy direction. OK, 00:12:50.629 --> 00:12:52.629 let's talk real estate. Yeah. That affects so 00:12:52.629 --> 00:12:55.309 many people directly. The Fed's policies during 00:12:55.309 --> 00:12:59.009 COVID drove prices way up. What's happening now? 00:12:59.129 --> 00:13:01.509 Well, now it's a different story. Mortgage volumes 00:13:01.509 --> 00:13:04.750 are down significantly, maybe 20, 25 % year over 00:13:04.750 --> 00:13:07.809 year. Wow. And because rates went up so much, 00:13:08.090 --> 00:13:10.049 refinancing options are really limited for most 00:13:10.049 --> 00:13:12.590 people. It means many homeowners are essentially 00:13:12.590 --> 00:13:15.309 locked in to their current mortgages, even if 00:13:15.309 --> 00:13:17.450 they'd like to move or refinance. OK, that's 00:13:17.450 --> 00:13:19.250 residential. What about commercial real estate? 00:13:19.389 --> 00:13:21.529 In commercial real estate, we're seeing clear 00:13:21.529 --> 00:13:24.049 deflationary pressures, things losing value, 00:13:24.450 --> 00:13:27.470 especially in private equity and private credit 00:13:27.470 --> 00:13:29.759 sectors that invest heavily there. Interestingly, 00:13:29.759 --> 00:13:33.559 that 2 % inflation target the Fed aims for, it's 00:13:33.559 --> 00:13:36.059 actually seen by some in the industry as sort 00:13:36.059 --> 00:13:38.340 of a minimum requirement for commercial real 00:13:38.340 --> 00:13:41.259 estate to function properly. Why is that? Because 00:13:41.259 --> 00:13:43.779 property appreciation, prices going up at least 00:13:43.779 --> 00:13:46.240 a little, is pretty essential for refinancing 00:13:46.240 --> 00:13:49.139 deals and extracting cash in that market. Without 00:13:49.139 --> 00:13:52.360 appreciation, deals can fall apart. Amidst all 00:13:52.360 --> 00:13:55.860 these challenges, debt, inflation, real estate 00:13:55.860 --> 00:14:00.750 woes, gold has quietly surged. up 27 % this year. 00:14:01.330 --> 00:14:03.840 Why is gold doing so well? Well, gold is really 00:14:03.840 --> 00:14:06.299 gaining status again as a reserve asset. You 00:14:06.299 --> 00:14:08.039 see central banks, particularly in places like 00:14:08.039 --> 00:14:11.039 China and Russia, actively accumulating it. It's 00:14:11.039 --> 00:14:13.779 even become legal tender now in over 15 U .S. 00:14:13.899 --> 00:14:15.899 states, and it's being used more frequently in 00:14:15.899 --> 00:14:18.460 contracts. It underscores its traditional role 00:14:18.460 --> 00:14:21.179 as a hedge against inflation and, you know, broader 00:14:21.179 --> 00:14:23.779 economic uncertainty. People get nervous. They 00:14:23.779 --> 00:14:26.519 look to gold. OK, so looking at policy implications, 00:14:27.139 --> 00:14:29.750 the administration's aggressive approach on tariffs, 00:14:30.330 --> 00:14:32.190 international relations. That's seen as both 00:14:32.190 --> 00:14:34.549 risk and opportunity. Yeah. It's a double -edged 00:14:34.549 --> 00:14:37.230 sword, according to these sources. Risk, obviously, 00:14:37.309 --> 00:14:40.669 from trade wars or alienating allies. But opportunity. 00:14:40.850 --> 00:14:42.889 There's talk about the potential to manage the 00:14:42.889 --> 00:14:44.789 U .S. government's massive balance sheet more 00:14:44.789 --> 00:14:48.529 like a business does. By maybe leveraging the 00:14:48.529 --> 00:14:51.029 trillions in assets held by the Treasury and 00:14:51.029 --> 00:14:53.110 the Federal Financing Bank more effectively. 00:14:53.309 --> 00:14:55.909 It's an idea that's out there. And the new Treasury 00:14:55.909 --> 00:14:58.669 Secretary, Scott Besson. What's the view on him? 00:14:58.830 --> 00:15:01.389 He's viewed pretty favorably, actually, by the 00:15:01.389 --> 00:15:04.889 experts cited in our sources, seen as open to 00:15:04.889 --> 00:15:07.149 thoughtful analysis and potentially someone who 00:15:07.149 --> 00:15:09.409 could genuinely drive some deficit reduction. 00:15:09.789 --> 00:15:12.049 So, wrapping up the economy, the big picture 00:15:12.049 --> 00:15:14.909 seems to be this complex interplay between fiscal 00:15:14.909 --> 00:15:17.809 policy, government spending, and taxes the Fed's 00:15:17.809 --> 00:15:20.190 actions on interest rates and, of course, political 00:15:20.190 --> 00:15:22.750 leadership, all shaping the economic outcomes 00:15:22.750 --> 00:15:24.809 for you in the years ahead. That sums it up well. 00:15:24.929 --> 00:15:27.700 It's all connected. Okay, finally, let's shift 00:15:27.700 --> 00:15:31.139 our gaze to politics. Specifically, the political 00:15:31.139 --> 00:15:33.360 maneuvering that's already underway for the 2028 00:15:33.360 --> 00:15:35.799 presidential race. And we're focusing here on 00:15:35.799 --> 00:15:37.759 California Governor Gavin Newsom. What's the 00:15:37.759 --> 00:15:40.980 earliest sign he's positioning himself? Oh, it's 00:15:40.980 --> 00:15:43.240 quite clear, isn't it? Newsom's intentions seem 00:15:43.240 --> 00:15:45.980 far from subtle, according to our sources. He's 00:15:45.980 --> 00:15:48.500 going to be term -limited as governor in 2026. 00:15:48.600 --> 00:15:50.460 Right, which frees him up. Exactly, frees him 00:15:50.460 --> 00:15:54.100 up to campaign full -time starting in 2027. And 00:15:54.100 --> 00:15:56.159 his strategy for presidential run, it's described 00:15:56.159 --> 00:16:00.039 as having Basically three main prongs. Okay, 00:16:00.120 --> 00:16:02.440 prong one. You mentioned positioning himself 00:16:02.440 --> 00:16:05.179 as a leader of the anti -Trump resistance. Why 00:16:05.179 --> 00:16:07.259 is he particularly well suited for that role? 00:16:07.519 --> 00:16:09.860 He's well positioned mainly because President 00:16:09.860 --> 00:16:12.700 Trump himself often singles out California as 00:16:12.700 --> 00:16:14.720 sort of an enemy state, right? Yeah, you hear 00:16:14.720 --> 00:16:17.220 that a lot. So this gives Newsom a natural platform. 00:16:17.460 --> 00:16:20.039 He can initiate legislation in California, file 00:16:20.039 --> 00:16:22.360 lawsuits, generally work to frustrate the White 00:16:22.360 --> 00:16:25.679 House's agenda. It helps solidify his image as 00:16:25.679 --> 00:16:28.759 a key counterforce to Trumpism. OK, makes sense. 00:16:29.379 --> 00:16:32.419 Prong two involves shedding that California liberal 00:16:32.419 --> 00:16:35.399 label, trying to reinvent himself as more of 00:16:35.399 --> 00:16:38.850 a centrist. How is he attempting that? Seems 00:16:38.850 --> 00:16:41.129 like a stretch for a California governor. Well, 00:16:41.230 --> 00:16:44.669 yeah. He's been hosting some, let's say, unexpected 00:16:44.669 --> 00:16:47.450 guests on his podcast. Our sources call them 00:16:47.450 --> 00:16:50.070 pretty odious right wingers. People like Charlie 00:16:50.070 --> 00:16:53.509 Kirk, Steve Bannon, Dr. Phil McGraw, even Michael 00:16:53.509 --> 00:16:56.870 Savage. Wow. That's quite a list. All in the 00:16:56.870 --> 00:16:59.350 name of dialogue. Apparently so. All in the name 00:16:59.350 --> 00:17:01.769 of dialogue. And he's also taken some stands 00:17:01.769 --> 00:17:04.990 on culture war issues that are described as litmus 00:17:04.990 --> 00:17:07.809 test failing for traditional Democrats. Most 00:17:07.809 --> 00:17:10.230 notably, opining that trans girls should not 00:17:10.230 --> 00:17:13.869 compete in girls' sports. Ah, okay. So, clear 00:17:13.869 --> 00:17:16.490 moves to broaden his appeal, or at least muddy 00:17:16.490 --> 00:17:19.269 the waters on his ideology. Exactly. Trying to 00:17:19.269 --> 00:17:21.910 reach voters who might normally tune out a California 00:17:21.910 --> 00:17:24.730 liberal. And the third prong, this is the specific 00:17:24.730 --> 00:17:26.930 news hook, right? He's actually getting started 00:17:26.930 --> 00:17:28.650 on the ground. Yes, the nuts and bolts stuff. 00:17:28.829 --> 00:17:30.910 He's currently touring South Carolina. South 00:17:30.910 --> 00:17:32.910 Carolina, okay. What's he doing there? And why 00:17:32.910 --> 00:17:35.269 South Carolina specifically? Well, while he's 00:17:35.269 --> 00:17:38.490 there, he's apparently displayed a newfound love 00:17:38.490 --> 00:17:41.269 of scripture, specifically citing Corinthians, 00:17:41.670 --> 00:17:44.630 something our sources note his California constituents 00:17:44.630 --> 00:17:47.730 weren't really aware of, during a meeting with 00:17:47.730 --> 00:17:50.390 hundreds of African Methodist Episcopal bishops. 00:17:50.569 --> 00:17:53.069 Interesting timing for that. Isn't it? He's also 00:17:53.069 --> 00:17:55.769 been rubbing elbows with key Democratic movers 00:17:55.769 --> 00:17:58.650 and shakers there. Representative Jim Clyburn, 00:17:58.950 --> 00:18:01.289 a very influential figure. Hugely influential, 00:18:01.369 --> 00:18:02.990 especially with black voters in South Carolina. 00:18:03.130 --> 00:18:05.789 Right. Clyburn joined Newsom at some town halls 00:18:05.789 --> 00:18:08.509 and even said publicly, I feel good about his 00:18:08.509 --> 00:18:12.130 chances. That's a significant nod. So what's 00:18:12.130 --> 00:18:14.289 the official reason for the trip? Is he just 00:18:14.289 --> 00:18:17.029 vacationing? Oh no. Officially, Newsom's trip 00:18:17.029 --> 00:18:19.430 is framed as supporting communities hit hard 00:18:19.430 --> 00:18:22.029 by natural disasters and also by Medicaid cuts. 00:18:22.490 --> 00:18:25.259 Okay, but - What can a governor from California 00:18:25.259 --> 00:18:27.420 realistically do about those issues in South 00:18:27.420 --> 00:18:29.980 Carolina from his current job? That part was 00:18:29.980 --> 00:18:32.440 left unexplained. Completely unexplained. Everyone 00:18:32.440 --> 00:18:34.059 knows what's really going on, right? It's much 00:18:34.059 --> 00:18:36.440 like Ron DeSantis making trips to Iowa back in 00:18:36.440 --> 00:18:39.920 2023. It's early campaigning. So why the intense 00:18:39.920 --> 00:18:42.740 focus on South Carolina so early? You mentioned 00:18:42.740 --> 00:18:46.099 Clyburn, but is it just luck or is there more 00:18:46.099 --> 00:18:49.039 strategy there? Maybe because Iowa, New Hampshire 00:18:49.039 --> 00:18:51.099 status in the primary calendar is kind of up 00:18:51.099 --> 00:18:53.220 in the air for the Democrats. That could definitely 00:18:53.220 --> 00:18:55.440 be part of the calculation. South Carolina is 00:18:55.440 --> 00:18:58.319 seen as a crucial early state, especially for 00:18:58.319 --> 00:19:00.839 proving viability with black voters who are a 00:19:00.839 --> 00:19:03.500 cornerstone of the Democratic base. Iowa and 00:19:03.500 --> 00:19:06.099 New Hampshire, their early status is in flux 00:19:06.099 --> 00:19:08.539 within the party. So maybe Newsom thinks South 00:19:08.539 --> 00:19:10.359 Carolina is a better place to make his first 00:19:10.359 --> 00:19:13.480 big impression, a more reliable early test. His 00:19:13.480 --> 00:19:15.700 actions certainly suggest a calculated bet on 00:19:15.700 --> 00:19:18.259 the state's importance in the 2028 primary landscape. 00:19:18.880 --> 00:19:21.599 So. What Newsom's early moves really show us, 00:19:21.619 --> 00:19:23.980 it's like a blueprint, isn't it, for how future 00:19:23.980 --> 00:19:25.740 presidential campaigns might operate. It's not 00:19:25.740 --> 00:19:28.119 just about policy stances anymore. It's this 00:19:28.119 --> 00:19:31.720 deliberate blend of resistance, reinvention, 00:19:32.200 --> 00:19:34.579 and that crucial grassroots outreach all starting 00:19:34.579 --> 00:19:36.779 long, long before the official campaign clock 00:19:36.779 --> 00:19:39.539 even starts ticking. Exactly. It's a fascinating 00:19:39.539 --> 00:19:41.799 look into the long game of presidential politics. 00:19:42.089 --> 00:19:44.549 OK. Well, we've certainly navigated some complex 00:19:44.549 --> 00:19:47.589 terrain today. We went from the nuances of the 00:19:47.589 --> 00:19:51.349 Supreme Court's shadow docket and its profound 00:19:51.349 --> 00:19:54.329 impact on federal agencies. Right. To those unexpected 00:19:54.329 --> 00:19:56.750 connections between immigration policy and what 00:19:56.750 --> 00:19:58.990 you pay at the grocery store. Yeah. And the pressing 00:19:58.990 --> 00:20:01.369 challenges of U .S. debt and sticky inflation. 00:20:01.589 --> 00:20:04.250 And finishing with that very early jockeying 00:20:04.250 --> 00:20:07.130 for the 2028 presidential race. Looking at the 00:20:07.130 --> 00:20:09.609 broader implications, it just powerfully highlights 00:20:09.609 --> 00:20:11.920 how deeply intertwined everything is. isn't it? 00:20:12.319 --> 00:20:15.119 Our legal, economic, and political systems decisions 00:20:15.119 --> 00:20:17.900 in one area inevitably ripple through the others. 00:20:18.140 --> 00:20:20.339 Often in unforeseen ways. Yeah, it's all connected. 00:20:20.599 --> 00:20:22.740 And that's our deep dive for today. So here's 00:20:22.740 --> 00:20:24.980 maybe a final thought for you to mull over. In 00:20:24.980 --> 00:20:27.619 this era where information and policy seem to 00:20:27.619 --> 00:20:30.259 shift at dizzying speeds, how might this increasing 00:20:30.259 --> 00:20:33.720 reliance on, say, rapid fire judicial actions 00:20:33.720 --> 00:20:35.740 like the shadow docket or the ripple effects 00:20:35.740 --> 00:20:38.319 of seemingly unrelated economic pressures, how 00:20:38.319 --> 00:20:40.519 might that fundamentally reshape the very fabric 00:20:40.519 --> 00:20:43.119 of governance in your daily life? Could it create 00:20:43.119 --> 00:20:45.380 really unexpected outcomes that challenge our 00:20:45.380 --> 00:20:47.339 conventional understanding of cause and effect? 00:20:47.440 --> 00:20:48.299 Something to think about.