WEBVTT 00:00:00.000 --> 00:00:03.520 Welcome to the Deep Dive. It's Monday, July 7th, 00:00:03.580 --> 00:00:06.440 2025. We're just a few days past Independence 00:00:06.440 --> 00:00:09.320 Day. And wow, what a week it's been just packed. 00:00:09.619 --> 00:00:13.480 Absolutely. We saw this colossal budget bill 00:00:13.480 --> 00:00:16.239 finally get passed. And then these widespread 00:00:16.239 --> 00:00:19.440 protests really capturing something about the 00:00:19.440 --> 00:00:21.440 American spirit, you know. Definitely. So our 00:00:21.440 --> 00:00:24.600 plan today is to dive deep. We've got a stack 00:00:24.600 --> 00:00:28.239 of sources here, reports, reader accounts. Some 00:00:28.239 --> 00:00:30.500 really sharp analysis. And we're going to unpack 00:00:30.500 --> 00:00:32.700 it all. Look at the winners and losers from the 00:00:32.700 --> 00:00:36.179 budget bill, the sheer logistics of some of these 00:00:36.179 --> 00:00:38.140 government plans. And how people are making their 00:00:38.140 --> 00:00:40.640 voices heard right across the country. Think 00:00:40.640 --> 00:00:42.880 of this as your shortcut. We want to give you 00:00:42.880 --> 00:00:45.500 those aha moments, help you really get what's 00:00:45.500 --> 00:00:47.799 happening and crucially what it means for you. 00:00:47.960 --> 00:00:50.820 OK, so let's start with that bill, the big, beautiful 00:00:50.820 --> 00:00:53.039 bill, as some sources called it. Right. It passed 00:00:53.039 --> 00:00:54.500 the House. It had already cleared the Senate. 00:00:54.759 --> 00:00:57.450 But the House vote was tight. Really tight 218 00:00:57.450 --> 00:01:00.049 and 214. Yeah, and interestingly you had two 00:01:00.049 --> 00:01:03.630 Republicans Brian Fitzpatrick from PA and Thomas 00:01:03.630 --> 00:01:05.489 Massey from Kentucky who actually crossed the 00:01:05.489 --> 00:01:08.510 aisle Voted with the Democrats, which is pretty 00:01:08.510 --> 00:01:10.609 notable on a bill like this. And then there's 00:01:10.609 --> 00:01:14.069 the Freedom Caucus. They made a lot of Big bold 00:01:14.069 --> 00:01:17.109 statements beforehand. They did but in the end 00:01:17.109 --> 00:01:20.629 they voted for it which led to Representative 00:01:20.629 --> 00:01:23.069 Derek Van Orden saying something like we're not 00:01:23.069 --> 00:01:25.519 a bunch of little bitches around here Yeah, though 00:01:25.519 --> 00:01:28.040 our sources kind of pointed out that, well, maybe 00:01:28.040 --> 00:01:30.879 they did yield a bit, despite the tough talk. 00:01:31.180 --> 00:01:33.400 Shows that tension, doesn't it? Between the public 00:01:33.400 --> 00:01:37.120 stance and the legislative reality. Absolutely. 00:01:37.439 --> 00:01:39.379 And what about the concessions, they claimed? 00:01:39.560 --> 00:01:41.540 Well, the analysis we're seeing suggests they 00:01:41.540 --> 00:01:43.900 were maybe more symbolic than substantive. Right. 00:01:44.200 --> 00:01:47.099 Like, they said Trump agreed to use executive 00:01:47.099 --> 00:01:49.980 orders to ditch renewable energy credits. But 00:01:49.980 --> 00:01:52.159 the sources point out, OK, one, Trump was probably 00:01:52.159 --> 00:01:54.760 going to do that anyway. Two, the actual cost 00:01:54.760 --> 00:01:57.780 of those programs, it's tiny, like a drop in 00:01:57.780 --> 00:01:59.859 the bucket compared to these trillion dollar 00:01:59.859 --> 00:02:02.920 deficits we're seeing. And three, Democrats will 00:02:02.920 --> 00:02:05.620 likely just bring them back later anyway. So 00:02:05.620 --> 00:02:08.719 maybe not the huge win they portrayed it as. 00:02:09.080 --> 00:02:12.740 Hmm. And there was another win. Something about 00:02:12.740 --> 00:02:15.400 a trip to the Oval Office. Yeah, Trump invited 00:02:15.400 --> 00:02:18.039 them over, gave them autographed stuff, photos, 00:02:18.240 --> 00:02:20.039 other things. Our sources had a little fun with 00:02:20.039 --> 00:02:22.560 that, didn't they? Speculating about signed cologne, 00:02:22.780 --> 00:02:24.979 maybe Trump bibles. Or even knee pads for the 00:02:24.979 --> 00:02:27.159 next round of negotiations. It does sound like 00:02:27.159 --> 00:02:29.300 the substance was maybe a bit thin on the ground 00:02:29.300 --> 00:02:31.560 there. Which really brings us to the question, 00:02:32.199 --> 00:02:34.719 was this a big win for Speaker Mike Johnson? 00:02:35.150 --> 00:02:37.289 The sources seem pretty skeptical, actually. 00:02:37.430 --> 00:02:39.370 Yeah, I mean, the bill itself, largely written 00:02:39.370 --> 00:02:41.710 over in the Senate, not the House. And getting 00:02:41.710 --> 00:02:44.250 those Freedom Caucus holdouts in line, it seems 00:02:44.250 --> 00:02:46.909 like that was mostly Trump, you know, with his 00:02:46.909 --> 00:02:50.310 mix of promises, threats. And merchandise. And 00:02:50.310 --> 00:02:53.449 merchandise, right. The analysis basically suggested 00:02:53.449 --> 00:02:55.610 the outcome might have been the same, no matter 00:02:55.610 --> 00:02:59.569 who was speaker. Even Staff Dox and Dotto, as 00:02:59.569 --> 00:03:02.129 one source put it. Ouch. That's pretty pointed. 00:03:02.689 --> 00:03:04.629 And speaking of Johnson, there's this odd detail 00:03:04.629 --> 00:03:07.349 about his official portrait. Oh, yeah. What was 00:03:07.349 --> 00:03:09.169 that? It's got the Washington Monument, like, 00:03:09.250 --> 00:03:11.509 really prominently in the background. And one 00:03:11.509 --> 00:03:15.509 source offered this, let's say, symbolic interpretation, 00:03:16.150 --> 00:03:19.050 calling it the nation's most famous phallic symbol, 00:03:19.650 --> 00:03:23.050 a metaphor for the presidential penis. Wow. OK, 00:03:23.430 --> 00:03:26.310 that's quite an interpretation. Raises questions 00:03:26.310 --> 00:03:28.669 about political messaging, I suppose. For sure. 00:03:28.860 --> 00:03:31.840 And speaking of challenging power, Independence 00:03:31.840 --> 00:03:34.819 Day wasn't just fireworks this year. No, definitely 00:03:34.819 --> 00:03:37.879 not. Our sources focused a lot on these protests. 00:03:38.379 --> 00:03:40.780 Hundreds of anti -Trump demonstrations planned, 00:03:41.060 --> 00:03:43.139 mostly in blue cities, but even popping up in 00:03:43.139 --> 00:03:45.860 red states, too. The return of No King's Day, 00:03:46.000 --> 00:03:48.300 as they called it. Right. The Women's March was 00:03:48.300 --> 00:03:50.780 a big organizer, but others were involved, too. 00:03:51.219 --> 00:03:54.840 And the core message seemed to be about... Freeing 00:03:54.840 --> 00:03:57.780 the US from rule by and for billionaires. And 00:03:57.780 --> 00:03:59.620 they were right on the money about Trump signing 00:03:59.620 --> 00:04:01.419 the budget bill on his deadline, weren't they? 00:04:01.699 --> 00:04:04.319 They were. The sources also had some practical 00:04:04.319 --> 00:04:07.500 advice for protesters. Like what? Things like, 00:04:07.500 --> 00:04:09.719 you know, try to stay positive. It has more impact. 00:04:09.860 --> 00:04:11.939 Tell someone where you're going. Check in. Makes 00:04:11.939 --> 00:04:15.379 sense. And be cautious if you're not white or 00:04:15.379 --> 00:04:20.540 a natural born citizen. Concerns about a government 00:04:20.540 --> 00:04:23.129 that might disappear people. That's a direct 00:04:23.129 --> 00:04:26.089 quote from one source. Chilling. And always bring 00:04:26.089 --> 00:04:28.589 water, of course. Basic protest rule. Absolutely. 00:04:28.670 --> 00:04:30.730 It really underscores this idea that the right 00:04:30.730 --> 00:04:34.189 to protest, to question leaders, it's maybe the 00:04:34.189 --> 00:04:36.290 most important part of the American system. It's 00:04:36.290 --> 00:04:38.569 what sets it apart from, you know, kings and 00:04:38.569 --> 00:04:41.329 monarchs. And we got some really fascinating 00:04:41.329 --> 00:04:45.149 firsthand accounts from these No Kings Day events. 00:04:45.350 --> 00:04:47.310 Yeah, like in Inver Grove Heights, Minnesota, 00:04:47.649 --> 00:04:49.610 the official event got canceled because of threats 00:04:49.610 --> 00:04:52.670 against lawmakers. Wow. But over 250 people showed 00:04:52.670 --> 00:04:55.870 up anyway, and the mood was apparently remarkably 00:04:55.870 --> 00:04:58.329 positive despite everything. One person said 00:04:58.329 --> 00:05:00.430 it was their first protest, felt therapeutic. 00:05:00.529 --> 00:05:02.629 That's powerful. What about elsewhere? Colorado 00:05:02.629 --> 00:05:05.069 Springs saw a big crowd, four digits. People 00:05:05.069 --> 00:05:07.490 felt invigorated, spirits lifted just by connecting 00:05:07.490 --> 00:05:09.269 with others. And it even went international, 00:05:09.750 --> 00:05:13.550 right? London. Yeah, they had no King's protests 00:05:13.550 --> 00:05:15.709 against Trump happening at the same time as King 00:05:15.709 --> 00:05:18.329 Charles' birthday parade. So they dubbed it One 00:05:18.329 --> 00:05:22.750 King or No Tyrants. Very clever. That is clever. 00:05:23.029 --> 00:05:25.949 And California. Burbank saw thousands at the 00:05:25.949 --> 00:05:28.430 Pasadena rally, peaceful, apparently spilled 00:05:28.430 --> 00:05:31.230 onto the streets until police closed them, described 00:05:31.230 --> 00:05:34.339 as Extremely peaceful. Lots of signs, I bet. 00:05:34.459 --> 00:05:37.660 Oh, yeah. Witty ones, vulgar ones, in different 00:05:37.660 --> 00:05:40.860 languages, singing, dancing, chanting, drumming, 00:05:41.360 --> 00:05:44.319 and oh, so much cowbell. You got to have more 00:05:44.319 --> 00:05:46.860 cowbell. Apparently, it felt very organic, apparently. 00:05:47.040 --> 00:05:50.180 No big ceremony, no central leader, just people 00:05:50.180 --> 00:05:52.620 showing up. Any counter protests there? Just 00:05:52.620 --> 00:05:54.779 one mentioned someone in Rolls Royce gave them 00:05:54.779 --> 00:05:57.100 the finger. And the protesters just laughed, 00:05:57.139 --> 00:05:59.740 apparently. Good for them. But what really jumped 00:05:59.740 --> 00:06:02.079 out of me from the sources was the turnout in 00:06:02.079 --> 00:06:05.360 some really red areas. Oh, definitely. Like McHenry, 00:06:05.480 --> 00:06:07.939 Illinois, described as very red. Hey, the numbers. 00:06:08.240 --> 00:06:11.480 Estimated 10 ,000 plus people lining sidewalks 00:06:11.480 --> 00:06:14.779 for nearly a mile. Enthusiastic. 10 ,000. That's 00:06:14.779 --> 00:06:17.600 huge for a rural town. Massive. And most drivers 00:06:17.600 --> 00:06:20.579 were honking in support. Only two counter protesters 00:06:20.579 --> 00:06:23.220 seen. And the source specifically noted, none 00:06:23.220 --> 00:06:25.800 of the usual coal rolling in your face Magier 00:06:25.800 --> 00:06:28.819 response. Wow. They called it a sea change in 00:06:28.819 --> 00:06:30.720 attitude. Yeah. That really is surprising. It 00:06:30.720 --> 00:06:33.519 is. But there were also some complexities noted 00:06:33.519 --> 00:06:35.860 in Alameda, California, for instance. What happened 00:06:35.860 --> 00:06:38.579 there? Huge protests. Largest one attendee had 00:06:38.579 --> 00:06:41.990 seen. But they worried about mission creep. Seeing 00:06:41.990 --> 00:06:44.850 Palestinian flags hearing chants like from the 00:06:44.850 --> 00:06:47.509 river to the sea The attendee argued for keeping 00:06:47.509 --> 00:06:50.589 the focus strictly on pro -democracy in America 00:06:50.589 --> 00:06:53.310 to build a broader coalition exactly to include 00:06:53.310 --> 00:06:58.069 those Never Trump former Republicans who might 00:06:58.069 --> 00:07:00.750 be new to protesting and might not agree on Middle 00:07:00.750 --> 00:07:03.430 East politics It's a real strategic challenge 00:07:03.430 --> 00:07:05.329 for movements like this. Yeah, that's a tough 00:07:05.329 --> 00:07:07.730 needle to thread keeping focus versus inclusivity 00:07:07.730 --> 00:07:10.889 definitely And just a couple more rural examples, 00:07:11.110 --> 00:07:13.769 Daleyville, Wisconsin, Republican area, small 00:07:13.769 --> 00:07:16.389 town, about 500 people rallied peacefully. Again, 00:07:16.769 --> 00:07:18.689 huge majority of passersby supportive. Another 00:07:18.689 --> 00:07:21.529 surprising shift. And Springfield, Missouri, 00:07:22.129 --> 00:07:25.389 deep red Queen City of the Ozarks, strong turnout 00:07:25.389 --> 00:07:28.370 around 2000. Lots of non -college students, too, 00:07:28.689 --> 00:07:31.550 which was seen as impressive. Gave people hope 00:07:31.550 --> 00:07:34.529 during, as one person put it, a scary time to 00:07:34.529 --> 00:07:37.379 be alive. These stories really paint a picture, 00:07:37.579 --> 00:07:39.819 don't they, beyond the national headlines? They 00:07:39.819 --> 00:07:42.160 really do, and they kind of set the stage for 00:07:42.160 --> 00:07:44.459 the political fallout after the bill actually 00:07:44.459 --> 00:07:46.980 passed. Right, starting with House Minority Leader 00:07:46.980 --> 00:07:49.779 Hakeem Jeffries. Yeah, he used his magic minute 00:07:49.779 --> 00:07:52.579 that unlimited speaking time leaders get to protest 00:07:52.579 --> 00:07:54.319 the bill. And he didn't just speak for a minute, 00:07:54.339 --> 00:07:57.660 did he? Uh, no. Try eight hours and 44 minutes, 00:07:57.920 --> 00:08:00.079 a new record. Almost nine hours. Yeah. What did 00:08:00.079 --> 00:08:02.600 he do for all that time? He read from binders, 00:08:02.839 --> 00:08:05.060 just pages and pages of personal stories from 00:08:05.060 --> 00:08:07.120 Americans who'd be negatively impacted by the 00:08:07.120 --> 00:08:09.819 bill. So basically sending a few clear messages. 00:08:10.079 --> 00:08:12.660 Exactly. One, Democrats really hate this bill. 00:08:13.180 --> 00:08:15.019 Two, they're upset about the harm it's going 00:08:15.019 --> 00:08:17.480 to cause. And three, with the other party holding 00:08:17.480 --> 00:08:19.740 the White House, House, and Senate, the trifecta, 00:08:20.120 --> 00:08:21.600 there wasn't much else they could actually do 00:08:21.600 --> 00:08:24.019 to stop it. It was a protest, pure and simple. 00:08:24.199 --> 00:08:26.420 But he's still got flack for it, right? From 00:08:26.420 --> 00:08:29.319 both sides. Yeah. Republicans, including Speaker 00:08:29.319 --> 00:08:32.259 Johnson, called it empty grandstanding. Although 00:08:32.259 --> 00:08:35.639 the sources pointed out the irony there. The 00:08:35.639 --> 00:08:38.720 record Jeffries broke. It was held by Kevin McCarthy, 00:08:39.039 --> 00:08:41.620 the former Republican minority leader. Bit of 00:08:41.620 --> 00:08:44.740 hypocrisy there, perhaps? But even some Democrats 00:08:44.740 --> 00:08:47.860 complained. Apparently so, particularly some 00:08:47.860 --> 00:08:51.679 whose holiday travel plans got messed up by the 00:08:51.679 --> 00:08:53.860 long session. Which our sources saw as a pretty 00:08:53.860 --> 00:08:56.480 bad look, you know, suggesting maybe they cared 00:08:56.480 --> 00:08:59.639 more about beer and hot dogs than fighting for 00:08:59.639 --> 00:09:01.580 the people they represent. Yeah, optics weren't 00:09:01.580 --> 00:09:04.159 great there. So the bill's passed. It's signed. 00:09:04.320 --> 00:09:06.980 Now comes the spin war. And Team Trump is already 00:09:06.980 --> 00:09:09.039 on it. Right. The Social Security Administration 00:09:09.039 --> 00:09:11.500 sent out this pre -written email blast. What 00:09:11.500 --> 00:09:13.980 did it say? claimed the bill gives long -awaited 00:09:13.980 --> 00:09:17.139 tax relief to millions of older Americans, said 00:09:17.139 --> 00:09:19.620 nearly 90 % of Social Security beneficiaries 00:09:19.620 --> 00:09:22.360 will no longer pay federal income taxes on their 00:09:22.360 --> 00:09:25.200 benefits. Nearly 90 % sounds huge, but our sources 00:09:25.200 --> 00:09:28.820 are skeptical. Yeah. They call it pretty aggressive 00:09:28.820 --> 00:09:32.059 spin, pointing out, well, first, a big chunk 00:09:32.059 --> 00:09:34.820 of seniors already don't pay taxes on their benefits. 00:09:34.860 --> 00:09:38.139 OK. Second, the real percentage who benefit will 00:09:38.139 --> 00:09:41.590 be much smaller than 90%. Third, the break gets 00:09:41.590 --> 00:09:44.289 harder to claim in later years. And fourth, it 00:09:44.289 --> 00:09:47.409 completely disappears in January 2029. Which 00:09:47.409 --> 00:09:49.389 just happens to me. When Trump leaves office. 00:09:49.850 --> 00:09:53.149 Funny how that works out. So what's the Democrats' 00:09:53.350 --> 00:09:56.049 plan? They'll blast the bill in the media, for 00:09:56.049 --> 00:09:59.250 sure. But they're also looking ahead to the 2026 00:09:59.250 --> 00:10:03.269 elections. So they'll keep at least some of their 00:10:03.269 --> 00:10:06.269 powder dry, as one source put it, save some ammo 00:10:06.269 --> 00:10:08.629 for later. And communication. That's always a 00:10:08.629 --> 00:10:10.590 challenge, isn't it? Generally, yeah. The sources 00:10:10.590 --> 00:10:13.070 suggest Democrats aren't always as good as Republicans 00:10:13.070 --> 00:10:14.990 at getting their message across. But maybe they 00:10:14.990 --> 00:10:17.830 have an easier job this time. Could be. The bill's 00:10:17.830 --> 00:10:20.590 already unpopular. And Republicans, well, they 00:10:20.590 --> 00:10:23.470 seem more prone to foot -and -mouth disease. 00:10:23.710 --> 00:10:25.409 We've already seen examples, haven't we? Yeah. 00:10:25.750 --> 00:10:29.929 Trump at a rally used that Shylock slur. No, 00:10:30.070 --> 00:10:32.120 an anti -Semitic term. deleted it later after 00:10:32.120 --> 00:10:35.320 pushback. He also uses globalist a lot. And that 00:10:35.320 --> 00:10:38.220 comment from Representative Troy Nails. Right. 00:10:38.340 --> 00:10:41.860 The Republican from Texas asked about 11 million 00:10:41.860 --> 00:10:44.320 people potentially losing health care under the 00:10:44.320 --> 00:10:46.960 bill. It doesn't matter because those are just 00:10:46.960 --> 00:10:48.940 some Americans that aren't Americans and that 00:10:48.940 --> 00:10:52.500 is the illegals. That's harsh. Pretty mean -spirited 00:10:52.500 --> 00:10:55.500 notion, is how one source put it. And they raised 00:10:55.500 --> 00:10:58.039 the question, you know, how do these politicians 00:10:58.039 --> 00:11:00.379 square these kinds of comments and supporting 00:11:00.379 --> 00:11:03.100 a bill that hits the poor and helps the rich 00:11:03.100 --> 00:11:06.659 with their professed Christian values? A fair 00:11:06.659 --> 00:11:09.379 question. Okay, so let's dig into that. Who does 00:11:09.379 --> 00:11:11.940 win with this bill? And why should you, listening 00:11:11.940 --> 00:11:14.120 right now, care? All right, let's break it down. 00:11:14.299 --> 00:11:16.990 First up... Big winners, according to our sources, 00:11:17.809 --> 00:11:19.730 multi -millionaires. How so? They get to pass 00:11:19.730 --> 00:11:22.289 on way more wealth. The estate tax exemption 00:11:22.289 --> 00:11:25.570 jumps up $15 million for individuals, $30 million 00:11:25.570 --> 00:11:29.009 for couples, plus those 2017 Trump income tax 00:11:29.009 --> 00:11:31.350 cuts. They're now permanent and they mostly benefit 00:11:31.350 --> 00:11:33.509 higher earners. Okay, who else? Residents of 00:11:33.509 --> 00:11:36.149 high -tax states. Think New York, California, 00:11:36.490 --> 00:11:39.460 New Jersey. The limit on deducting state and 00:11:39.460 --> 00:11:42.200 local taxes, the SALT deduction, goes up to $40 00:11:42.200 --> 00:11:46.100 ,000 a year for five years. That's a big jump 00:11:46.100 --> 00:11:49.259 from the current $10 ,000 cap. Huge relief for 00:11:49.259 --> 00:11:51.500 them. Though it does phase out for higher incomes, 00:11:51.740 --> 00:11:55.519 over 500Ks, and snaps back to $10K later. Got 00:11:55.519 --> 00:11:57.759 it. What about businesses? Small business owners 00:11:57.759 --> 00:12:00.379 do well. That 2017 rule letting pass -through 00:12:00.379 --> 00:12:02.620 businesses deduct up to 20 % of their income. 00:12:02.779 --> 00:12:05.120 made permanent. And private equity keeps its 00:12:05.120 --> 00:12:07.600 controversial carried interest tax work, plus 00:12:07.600 --> 00:12:09.700 an expanded break for interest expenses. Any 00:12:09.700 --> 00:12:11.700 specific industry is getting a boost. Quite a 00:12:11.700 --> 00:12:13.960 few. Domestic car dealers get a tax deduction 00:12:13.960 --> 00:12:17.000 on loan interest for U .S. made cars. Manufacturers 00:12:17.000 --> 00:12:19.559 get things like bonus depreciation back for upgrades 00:12:19.559 --> 00:12:22.639 and a permanent R &D tax break. And energy. Fossil 00:12:22.639 --> 00:12:24.899 fuel producers get tax breaks and more federal 00:12:24.899 --> 00:12:27.460 land open for drilling. Meanwhile, breaks for 00:12:27.460 --> 00:12:29.419 clean energy get phased out. Big shift there. 00:12:29.539 --> 00:12:32.159 OK, what about individuals like regular taxpayers? 00:12:32.480 --> 00:12:34.879 There are some things. Taxpayers 65 and older 00:12:34.879 --> 00:12:37.379 get a larger standard deduction. And tips and 00:12:37.379 --> 00:12:39.740 overtime pay become exempt from income tax. That 00:12:39.740 --> 00:12:42.139 sounds good for servers and hourly workers. It 00:12:42.139 --> 00:12:44.960 does. But our sources add some caveats. Only 00:12:44.960 --> 00:12:47.559 about 2 .5 percent of workers are actually in 00:12:47.559 --> 00:12:50.399 tipped jobs. Many already pay no federal income 00:12:50.399 --> 00:12:53.580 tax. And apparently there are many hoops to jump 00:12:53.580 --> 00:12:55.779 through to actually benefit from this new rule. 00:12:55.860 --> 00:12:59.159 So maybe not as big a deal in practice. Okay. 00:12:59.840 --> 00:13:02.000 Anything else for individuals? Parents see the 00:13:02.000 --> 00:13:05.940 child tax credit go up by $200 to $2 ,200 starting 00:13:05.940 --> 00:13:09.120 next year, and it gets indexed to inflation permanently. 00:13:09.600 --> 00:13:12.840 And there are these new Trump accounts for babies 00:13:12.840 --> 00:13:16.779 born 2025 to 2028 seeded with $1 ,000 from the 00:13:16.779 --> 00:13:19.600 government. Interesting. What about big corporations? 00:13:20.059 --> 00:13:22.279 Telecommunications could benefit big time. The 00:13:22.279 --> 00:13:24.639 bill options off a huge amount of radio spectrum 00:13:24.639 --> 00:13:27.860 for wireless broadband. Think Starlink, 5G, 6G 00:13:27.860 --> 00:13:29.879 networks, and generally corporations dodged a 00:13:29.879 --> 00:13:32.279 lot of proposed tax hikes. And defense contractors. 00:13:32.559 --> 00:13:35.340 Oh, yeah. $150 billion boost to defense spending, 00:13:35.519 --> 00:13:37.940 a lot for new weapons systems, and space gets 00:13:37.940 --> 00:13:40.559 nearly $10 billion for Moon Mars projects and 00:13:40.559 --> 00:13:42.559 decommissioning the ISS. It sounds like there 00:13:42.559 --> 00:13:44.820 are also some very specific targeted breaks in 00:13:44.820 --> 00:13:47.950 there. Definitely. Our sources called them targeted 00:13:47.950 --> 00:13:50.230 goodies, basically suggesting they were tucked 00:13:50.230 --> 00:13:53.169 in to buy specific votes or reward donors. Like 00:13:53.169 --> 00:13:55.769 what? Give us some examples. OK, how about a 00:13:55.769 --> 00:13:58.470 massive deduction for business meals, but only 00:13:58.470 --> 00:14:01.610 for Alaskan fishing boats north of the 50th parallel. 00:14:01.750 --> 00:14:04.370 Very specific. Or permission for Alaskan whaling 00:14:04.370 --> 00:14:06.769 captains to buy weapons because of Russian pirates. 00:14:07.389 --> 00:14:09.309 A carve out from the minimum tax for oil and 00:14:09.309 --> 00:14:12.309 gas reportedly for Senator Lankford. A $2 billion 00:14:12.309 --> 00:14:15.049 tax break for the rum industry linked to Senator 00:14:15.049 --> 00:14:18.200 Cassidy. Rum, OK. A $1 billion provision letting 00:14:18.200 --> 00:14:21.419 spaceports sell tax -exempt bonds, one source 00:14:21.419 --> 00:14:24.179 called it a wedding present to Jeff Bezos, and 00:14:24.179 --> 00:14:27.220 a severance package to Elon Musk. A $3 billion 00:14:27.220 --> 00:14:29.899 break for real estate investment trusts, maybe 00:14:29.899 --> 00:14:32.600 linked to a specific donor, and generally support 00:14:32.600 --> 00:14:35.100 for repealing federal tax on most firearms. It 00:14:35.100 --> 00:14:36.840 does sound like a lot of specific interests being 00:14:36.840 --> 00:14:39.580 catered to. It led former speaker Paul Ryan and 00:14:39.580 --> 00:14:41.840 Karl Palmerloh from the American Enterprise Institute 00:14:41.840 --> 00:14:44.519 to say this is a real departure from old GOP 00:14:44.519 --> 00:14:47.200 principles. They argue for decades against littering 00:14:47.200 --> 00:14:49.039 the tax code with these kinds of preferences 00:14:49.039 --> 00:14:51.500 that pick winners and losers. Which brings us 00:14:51.500 --> 00:14:54.259 to the flip side. If those are the winners, who 00:14:54.259 --> 00:14:56.240 are the losers in this bill? Well, according 00:14:56.240 --> 00:14:59.299 to the analysis, low -income Americans face significant 00:14:59.299 --> 00:15:02.440 cuts, primarily to Medicaid health coverage and 00:15:02.440 --> 00:15:06.019 food stamps, SNFP. How significant. A Yale budget 00:15:06.019 --> 00:15:08.519 lab analysis estimates this bill will cost the 00:15:08.519 --> 00:15:12.580 bottom 20 % of taxpayers about $560 a year on 00:15:12.580 --> 00:15:15.519 average. Ouch. How are the cuts structured? New 00:15:15.519 --> 00:15:17.580 work requirements for Medicaid, unless you're 00:15:17.580 --> 00:15:20.559 elderly, disabled, or have young kids. Co -pays 00:15:20.559 --> 00:15:23.759 for people on ACA plans. For food stamps, SNAP 00:15:23.759 --> 00:15:26.480 P work requirements are expanded up to age 65. 00:15:26.860 --> 00:15:29.080 And starting in 2028, states have to chip in 00:15:29.080 --> 00:15:31.200 for food benefit costs, which are fully federal 00:15:31.200 --> 00:15:33.840 now. OK, who else is negatively impacted? Renewable 00:15:33.840 --> 00:15:36.019 energy industries, definitely. Solar and wind 00:15:36.019 --> 00:15:38.559 tax credits phase out fast. Energy efficiency 00:15:38.559 --> 00:15:40.820 home improvement credits disappear by year end. 00:15:40.940 --> 00:15:42.950 What about tech? Actually, a bit of a win for 00:15:42.950 --> 00:15:45.409 tech critics. A controversial plan to stop states 00:15:45.409 --> 00:15:48.350 from regulating AI. That got removed from the 00:15:48.350 --> 00:15:50.850 final bill. So electric vehicle makers lose out. 00:15:51.110 --> 00:15:54.169 Yeah, that $7 ,500 consumer tax credit for buying 00:15:54.169 --> 00:15:58.009 an EV is gone. And elite universities face higher 00:15:58.009 --> 00:16:00.710 taxes on their endowment investment income. The 00:16:00.710 --> 00:16:03.309 tax rate climbs up to 8 % for the wealthiest 00:16:03.309 --> 00:16:05.460 ones. Anyone else on the losing end? Immigrants 00:16:05.460 --> 00:16:08.200 face higher taxes through a few provisions. There's 00:16:08.200 --> 00:16:10.919 a new 1 % tax on remittances money sent back 00:16:10.919 --> 00:16:13.879 home. And restricted access to health coverage 00:16:13.879 --> 00:16:16.620 tax credits for asylum seekers or those with 00:16:16.620 --> 00:16:19.899 TPS. And gamblers, they can now only deduct 90 00:16:19.899 --> 00:16:22.039 % of their losses against winnings. So you could 00:16:22.039 --> 00:16:24.299 actually owe income tax even if you broke even 00:16:24.299 --> 00:16:26.720 or lost money overall gambling? Potentially, 00:16:26.919 --> 00:16:29.399 yeah. Seems complicated. This really leads into 00:16:29.399 --> 00:16:31.419 something critical our sources highlighted. Yeah. 00:16:31.539 --> 00:16:34.240 The growing hunger crisis in the U .S. It's pretty 00:16:34.240 --> 00:16:36.740 stark. A morning consult poll tracked this over 00:16:36.740 --> 00:16:39.220 five years. The number of people saying they 00:16:39.220 --> 00:16:41.659 often or sometimes have insufficient food to 00:16:41.659 --> 00:16:44.740 eat. It's now fifteen point six percent. Fifteen 00:16:44.740 --> 00:16:46.740 point six percent. That's huge. It is. And it's 00:16:46.740 --> 00:16:48.980 up more than 50 percent just since 2021. And 00:16:48.980 --> 00:16:51.820 the fear is this budget bill with the SN at Keeks 00:16:51.820 --> 00:16:54.600 will make it significantly worse. Millions could 00:16:54.600 --> 00:16:56.759 lose benefits. The sources pointed out a disconnect, 00:16:56.840 --> 00:16:59.419 didn't they? A shameful disconnect, they called 00:16:59.419 --> 00:17:02.080 it, between record highs on Wall Street and these 00:17:02.080 --> 00:17:05.680 rising hunger levels. The quote was, one out 00:17:05.680 --> 00:17:08.359 of seven Americans often goes to bed hungry in 00:17:08.359 --> 00:17:11.779 the richest country in history, while other people 00:17:11.779 --> 00:17:14.859 hold 50 million dollar weddings. That's a powerful 00:17:14.859 --> 00:17:18.519 image. And the scale of the SNAP cuts could eliminate 00:17:18.519 --> 00:17:22.099 somewhere between six and nine billion meals 00:17:22.099 --> 00:17:25.339 a year. Billion. With a B. Billion. Which is 00:17:25.339 --> 00:17:27.640 roughly equivalent to the total amount of food 00:17:27.640 --> 00:17:30.220 distributed by all food banks in America combined 00:17:30.220 --> 00:17:32.559 each year. So food banks would have to double 00:17:32.559 --> 00:17:34.920 their output just to break even. Exactly. And 00:17:34.920 --> 00:17:36.539 food bank leaders are saying that's completely 00:17:36.539 --> 00:17:38.559 unrealistic. They just don't have the capacity. 00:17:38.819 --> 00:17:41.000 And there's a specific impact in rural areas 00:17:41.000 --> 00:17:43.759 too. Yeah, this is really important. Many grocery 00:17:43.759 --> 00:17:46.519 stores in low income rural areas depend heavily 00:17:46.519 --> 00:17:49.700 on customers using SNAPI. So if SNAPI benefits 00:17:49.700 --> 00:17:52.500 are cut? Those stores might fail. Creating food 00:17:52.500 --> 00:17:55.799 deserts. rural residents, including potentially 00:17:55.799 --> 00:17:58.559 many Trump voters, could find their only local 00:17:58.559 --> 00:18:01.140 grocery store gone, maybe even their local hospital 00:18:01.140 --> 00:18:03.640 if it's linked. And the sources doubt people 00:18:03.640 --> 00:18:06.019 will connect those local closures back to this 00:18:06.019 --> 00:18:08.279 bill. That was the concern raised, yeah, whether 00:18:08.279 --> 00:18:11.180 they'll connect the dots. OK, let's broaden out. 00:18:11.759 --> 00:18:14.220 What are some of the wider implications in future 00:18:14.220 --> 00:18:16.329 battles brewing? Immigration seems like a big 00:18:16.329 --> 00:18:19.910 one. Huge. Trump has promised deporting one million 00:18:19.910 --> 00:18:23.009 undocumented immigrants a year, and the bill 00:18:23.009 --> 00:18:27.470 appropriates $170 billion for border and immigration 00:18:27.470 --> 00:18:30.130 enforcement. One million a year? Is that even 00:18:30.130 --> 00:18:32.509 possible? It's incredibly difficult. There's 00:18:32.509 --> 00:18:34.910 historical precedent. Eisenhower's operation 00:18:34.910 --> 00:18:38.849 went back in 54, deported about 1 .1 million 00:18:38.849 --> 00:18:41.470 Mexicans. But the sources draw contrast between 00:18:41.470 --> 00:18:43.849 Eisenhower, the logistical strategist, suggesting 00:18:43.849 --> 00:18:47.349 the execution would be challenging, to put it 00:18:47.349 --> 00:18:49.609 mildly. What are the main hurdles? Massive logistical 00:18:49.609 --> 00:18:52.309 ones. First, hiring and training at least 10 00:18:52.309 --> 00:18:54.829 ,000 new immigration workers. Hard to do and 00:18:54.829 --> 00:18:57.410 there are easier jobs out there. Second, setting 00:18:57.410 --> 00:19:00.990 up dozens, maybe hundreds of new detention facilities. 00:19:01.390 --> 00:19:04.150 That means permits. Maybe using eminent domain, 00:19:04.309 --> 00:19:07.089 which leads to lawsuits, building infrastructure, 00:19:07.309 --> 00:19:10.150 roads, power, water, sewage, especially if they're 00:19:10.150 --> 00:19:12.410 on remote federal land, like in the desert. Sounds 00:19:12.410 --> 00:19:15.549 incredibly complex. Former enacting ICE directors 00:19:15.549 --> 00:19:18.150 quoted basically said it's way harder than it 00:19:18.150 --> 00:19:20.569 sounds. Then you need to expand the courts, hire 00:19:20.569 --> 00:19:23.769 tons more immigration judges. The current 700 00:19:23.769 --> 00:19:26.809 judges already have a backlog of 3 .5 million 00:19:26.809 --> 00:19:29.569 cases. Three and a half million, wow. And just 00:19:29.569 --> 00:19:32.099 finding undocumented workers will be tough. They'll 00:19:32.099 --> 00:19:35.119 be wary. Plus, raiding businesses that hire them, 00:19:35.279 --> 00:19:37.420 like meatpacking plants, that could anger some 00:19:37.420 --> 00:19:39.779 very large and powerful corporations. Right. 00:19:40.319 --> 00:19:43.500 OK. Shifting gears slightly. Global trade and 00:19:43.500 --> 00:19:46.400 tariffs. What's the plan there? Trump wants 200 00:19:46.400 --> 00:19:49.720 separate bilateral trade deals. So far, only 00:19:49.720 --> 00:19:52.839 signed two full ones, UK and Vietnam, plus a 00:19:52.839 --> 00:19:54.839 mini deal with China. And the Treasury Secretary, 00:19:55.019 --> 00:19:57.819 Scott Besson, made some threats. Yeah. Warn countries 00:19:57.819 --> 00:19:59.980 that if they don't have a deal by August 1st, 00:19:59.980 --> 00:20:02.299 they'll face astronomical tariffs. Those tariffs 00:20:02.299 --> 00:20:06.359 have been paused for 90 days. foreign countries 00:20:06.359 --> 00:20:09.000 pay these tariffs. Which our sources say is just 00:20:09.000 --> 00:20:11.779 flat out wrong. Tariffs are paid by U .S. importers 00:20:11.779 --> 00:20:14.660 when goods enter the country, and that cost gets 00:20:14.660 --> 00:20:17.519 passed on to U .S. businesses or ultimately to 00:20:17.519 --> 00:20:20.359 you, the consumer, as higher prices. So we pay 00:20:20.359 --> 00:20:22.400 the tariffs, not the other countries. Pretty 00:20:22.400 --> 00:20:25.539 much, yeah. And China has huge leverage here. 00:20:25.700 --> 00:20:28.319 They're the main source for rare earth elements, 00:20:28.599 --> 00:20:31.720 tons of products, if trade stops. Factories close 00:20:31.720 --> 00:20:35.259 here, unemployment. GDP crashes. That's the potential 00:20:35.259 --> 00:20:38.039 risk, yeah. A risk the sources suggest Trump 00:20:38.039 --> 00:20:40.579 maybe doesn't fully grasp. And Besson also made 00:20:40.579 --> 00:20:44.019 that comment about poor people and SNFV forms. 00:20:44.259 --> 00:20:46.759 Right, said Democrats think poor people are stupid 00:20:46.759 --> 00:20:48.759 for struggling with the forms. But the sources 00:20:48.759 --> 00:20:50.759 countered that. Yeah, pointing out that government 00:20:50.759 --> 00:20:53.140 forms are often designed to be difficult. Tiny 00:20:53.140 --> 00:20:55.619 errors, like leaving a box blank instead of writing 00:20:55.619 --> 00:20:58.220 not applicable, can lead to rejection. It's not 00:20:58.220 --> 00:21:00.440 about intelligence, it's about navigating bureaucracy. 00:21:00.700 --> 00:21:02.640 Okay, another topic popping up in our sources. 00:21:03.200 --> 00:21:06.019 The return of the COVID culture wars. It seems 00:21:06.019 --> 00:21:08.960 like it. Dr. Amy Acton, who was Ohio's health 00:21:08.960 --> 00:21:11.119 director early in the pandemic. I remember her. 00:21:11.140 --> 00:21:14.180 She got a lot of attention. She did. Both positive, 00:21:14.460 --> 00:21:16.859 lauded by public health folks. Even the New York 00:21:16.859 --> 00:21:19.279 Times called her the leader we wish we all had. 00:21:19.720 --> 00:21:22.339 Had a huge Facebook fan club. But also negative, 00:21:22.480 --> 00:21:24.480 right? Yeah. Especially from the right. Hugely. 00:21:24.799 --> 00:21:27.660 Almost as reviled in Ohio as Fauci was nationally. 00:21:28.029 --> 00:21:31.009 Because of the lockdowns, mask mandates, gathering 00:21:31.009 --> 00:21:33.970 bans, our sources note some right -wing groups 00:21:33.970 --> 00:21:37.650 literally believe the pandemic was caused by 00:21:37.650 --> 00:21:42.549 God to punish America, not a virus. So Acton 00:21:42.549 --> 00:21:45.569 faced intense pushback, death threats, some anti 00:21:45.569 --> 00:21:48.549 -Semitic ones too. She resigned in June 2020 00:21:48.549 --> 00:21:51.269 under political pressure. The Republican governor, 00:21:51.470 --> 00:21:53.970 Mike DeWine, consistently defended her personally. 00:21:54.150 --> 00:21:56.500 And now she's running for governor. As a Democrat. 00:21:56.819 --> 00:21:58.859 Yep. And it looks like both sides are gearing 00:21:58.859 --> 00:22:01.220 up to basically re -litigate the whole pandemic 00:22:01.220 --> 00:22:04.180 response. Likely opponent. The vivic Rameswami, 00:22:04.380 --> 00:22:07.619 described as, as Trumpy as they come. He'll likely 00:22:07.619 --> 00:22:10.059 argue, you know, medical science is bad. Government 00:22:10.059 --> 00:22:12.240 shouldn't restrict freedom, even if millions 00:22:12.240 --> 00:22:14.640 die. And her campaign. We'll try to frame it 00:22:14.640 --> 00:22:18.299 as a choice between science and, well, the sources 00:22:18.299 --> 00:22:20.420 quote someone framing the opposition as the spawn 00:22:20.420 --> 00:22:23.299 of the devil. So, yeah, culture war footing. 00:22:23.529 --> 00:22:25.950 Definitely sounds like it. OK, slightly different 00:22:25.950 --> 00:22:29.750 tack. Democrats recruiting veterans. Yeah, actively 00:22:29.750 --> 00:22:32.349 trying to get veterans, especially combat vets, 00:22:32.650 --> 00:22:35.970 to run for house seats. Why? What's the strategy? 00:22:36.230 --> 00:22:38.369 To counter that old perception that Democrats 00:22:38.369 --> 00:22:41.250 are weak on national security. The thinking is 00:22:41.250 --> 00:22:44.329 a candidate's military service can kind of neutralize 00:22:44.329 --> 00:22:47.210 attacks from opponents, especially if the opponent 00:22:47.210 --> 00:22:50.029 didn't serve. Makes sense. Who's leading this 00:22:50.029 --> 00:22:52.460 effort? Representative Jason Crowe, Democrat 00:22:52.460 --> 00:22:55.000 from Colorado, former Army Ranger himself. He 00:22:55.000 --> 00:22:57.240 thinks veterans can appeal even to voters normally 00:22:57.240 --> 00:22:59.680 hostile to Democrats, including other veterans 00:22:59.680 --> 00:23:02.779 who leaned heavily Trump in 2024. Any examples 00:23:02.779 --> 00:23:04.839 of recruits? Former Navy pilot Rebecca Bennett 00:23:04.839 --> 00:23:08.279 in New Jersey, Kate Conley, six overseas deployments 00:23:08.279 --> 00:23:10.619 running in New York. And they're encouraged by 00:23:10.619 --> 00:23:12.859 recent successes, veterans winning Senate races 00:23:12.859 --> 00:23:15.599 like Diego and Slotkin or running for governor 00:23:15.599 --> 00:23:18.240 like Spanberger and Sherrill. Interesting strategy. 00:23:18.339 --> 00:23:20.519 We'll see how it plays out. And finally, just 00:23:20.519 --> 00:23:23.880 a quick note on Elon Musk. Right. He apparently 00:23:23.880 --> 00:23:26.819 just formed a new political party called the 00:23:26.819 --> 00:23:29.440 America Party. The America Party. Yeah. Hey, 00:23:29.819 --> 00:23:31.920 something to keep an eye on, I guess. TBD on 00:23:31.920 --> 00:23:34.000 whether that goes anywhere. All right. So let's 00:23:34.000 --> 00:23:35.980 try to wrap this up. We've covered a lot of ground 00:23:35.980 --> 00:23:38.140 today. We really have, from the nitty gritty 00:23:38.140 --> 00:23:42.180 of this huge budget bill. To the really powerful 00:23:42.180 --> 00:23:44.740 force of those grassroots protests across the 00:23:44.740 --> 00:23:47.009 country. Looking at the complex logistics of 00:23:47.009 --> 00:23:49.549 government policy like immigration enforcement. 00:23:49.730 --> 00:23:52.450 And diving into these deep divisions in the culture 00:23:52.450 --> 00:23:54.730 wars like we just saw with COVID. And throughout 00:23:54.730 --> 00:23:56.950 it all, seeing how decisions made in Washington 00:23:56.950 --> 00:24:00.089 really do filter down, affecting daily life for 00:24:00.089 --> 00:24:03.700 millions. Food security, health care, taxes. 00:24:03.980 --> 00:24:05.920 It's all connected. And as we dug through these 00:24:05.920 --> 00:24:08.119 sources, one thing really set out, didn't it? 00:24:08.319 --> 00:24:11.759 This profound disconnect. Definitely. Between 00:24:11.759 --> 00:24:14.380 the headlines about Wall Street success and the 00:24:14.380 --> 00:24:17.480 reality of growing food insecurity for so many 00:24:17.480 --> 00:24:20.000 Americans. And at the same time, you see this 00:24:20.000 --> 00:24:23.839 passionate public response. Huge protests. People 00:24:23.839 --> 00:24:26.299 speaking out. Which leaves us with a final thought. 00:24:26.440 --> 00:24:29.250 Maybe something for you to chew on. In a society 00:24:29.250 --> 00:24:32.210 where the impacts of policy are becoming so tangible, 00:24:32.410 --> 00:24:35.569 so immediate, how long can this gap persist? 00:24:35.869 --> 00:24:37.910 This gap between the political narratives we 00:24:37.910 --> 00:24:40.430 hear and the lived reality people experience? 00:24:41.269 --> 00:24:43.650 A critical mass of people really does connect 00:24:43.650 --> 00:24:46.569 the dots, as those sources put it, before they 00:24:46.569 --> 00:24:48.569 demand a really fundamental shift in direction. 00:24:48.670 --> 00:24:49.490 Something to think about.