Welcome to the Deep Dive. It's Monday, July 7th,
2025. We're just a few days past Independence
Day. And wow, what a week it's been just packed.
Absolutely. We saw this colossal budget bill
finally get passed. And then these widespread
protests really capturing something about the
American spirit, you know. Definitely. So our
plan today is to dive deep. We've got a stack
of sources here, reports, reader accounts. Some
really sharp analysis. And we're going to unpack
it all. Look at the winners and losers from the
budget bill, the sheer logistics of some of these
government plans. And how people are making their
voices heard right across the country. Think
of this as your shortcut. We want to give you
those aha moments, help you really get what's
happening and crucially what it means for you.
OK, so let's start with that bill, the big, beautiful
bill, as some sources called it. Right. It passed
the House. It had already cleared the Senate.
But the House vote was tight. Really tight 218
and 214. Yeah, and interestingly you had two
Republicans Brian Fitzpatrick from PA and Thomas
Massey from Kentucky who actually crossed the
aisle Voted with the Democrats, which is pretty
notable on a bill like this. And then there's
the Freedom Caucus. They made a lot of Big bold
statements beforehand. They did but in the end
they voted for it which led to Representative
Derek Van Orden saying something like we're not
a bunch of little bitches around here Yeah, though
our sources kind of pointed out that, well, maybe
they did yield a bit, despite the tough talk.
Shows that tension, doesn't it? Between the public
stance and the legislative reality. Absolutely.
And what about the concessions, they claimed?
Well, the analysis we're seeing suggests they
were maybe more symbolic than substantive. Right.
Like, they said Trump agreed to use executive
orders to ditch renewable energy credits. But
the sources point out, OK, one, Trump was probably
going to do that anyway. Two, the actual cost
of those programs, it's tiny, like a drop in
the bucket compared to these trillion dollar
deficits we're seeing. And three, Democrats will
likely just bring them back later anyway. So
maybe not the huge win they portrayed it as.
Hmm. And there was another win. Something about
a trip to the Oval Office. Yeah, Trump invited
them over, gave them autographed stuff, photos,
other things. Our sources had a little fun with
that, didn't they? Speculating about signed cologne,
maybe Trump bibles. Or even knee pads for the
next round of negotiations. It does sound like
the substance was maybe a bit thin on the ground
there. Which really brings us to the question,
was this a big win for Speaker Mike Johnson?
The sources seem pretty skeptical, actually.
Yeah, I mean, the bill itself, largely written
over in the Senate, not the House. And getting
those Freedom Caucus holdouts in line, it seems
like that was mostly Trump, you know, with his
mix of promises, threats. And merchandise. And
merchandise, right. The analysis basically suggested
the outcome might have been the same, no matter
who was speaker. Even Staff Dox and Dotto, as
one source put it. Ouch. That's pretty pointed.
And speaking of Johnson, there's this odd detail
about his official portrait. Oh, yeah. What was
that? It's got the Washington Monument, like,
really prominently in the background. And one
source offered this, let's say, symbolic interpretation,
calling it the nation's most famous phallic symbol,
a metaphor for the presidential penis. Wow. OK,
that's quite an interpretation. Raises questions
about political messaging, I suppose. For sure.
And speaking of challenging power, Independence
Day wasn't just fireworks this year. No, definitely
not. Our sources focused a lot on these protests.
Hundreds of anti -Trump demonstrations planned,
mostly in blue cities, but even popping up in
red states, too. The return of No King's Day,
as they called it. Right. The Women's March was
a big organizer, but others were involved, too.
And the core message seemed to be about... Freeing
the US from rule by and for billionaires. And
they were right on the money about Trump signing
the budget bill on his deadline, weren't they?
They were. The sources also had some practical
advice for protesters. Like what? Things like,
you know, try to stay positive. It has more impact.
Tell someone where you're going. Check in. Makes
sense. And be cautious if you're not white or
a natural born citizen. Concerns about a government
that might disappear people. That's a direct
quote from one source. Chilling. And always bring
water, of course. Basic protest rule. Absolutely.
It really underscores this idea that the right
to protest, to question leaders, it's maybe the
most important part of the American system. It's
what sets it apart from, you know, kings and
monarchs. And we got some really fascinating
firsthand accounts from these No Kings Day events.
Yeah, like in Inver Grove Heights, Minnesota,
the official event got canceled because of threats
against lawmakers. Wow. But over 250 people showed
up anyway, and the mood was apparently remarkably
positive despite everything. One person said
it was their first protest, felt therapeutic.
That's powerful. What about elsewhere? Colorado
Springs saw a big crowd, four digits. People
felt invigorated, spirits lifted just by connecting
with others. And it even went international,
right? London. Yeah, they had no King's protests
against Trump happening at the same time as King
Charles' birthday parade. So they dubbed it One
King or No Tyrants. Very clever. That is clever.
And California. Burbank saw thousands at the
Pasadena rally, peaceful, apparently spilled
onto the streets until police closed them, described
as Extremely peaceful. Lots of signs, I bet.
Oh, yeah. Witty ones, vulgar ones, in different
languages, singing, dancing, chanting, drumming,
and oh, so much cowbell. You got to have more
cowbell. Apparently, it felt very organic, apparently.
No big ceremony, no central leader, just people
showing up. Any counter protests there? Just
one mentioned someone in Rolls Royce gave them
the finger. And the protesters just laughed,
apparently. Good for them. But what really jumped
out of me from the sources was the turnout in
some really red areas. Oh, definitely. Like McHenry,
Illinois, described as very red. Hey, the numbers.
Estimated 10 ,000 plus people lining sidewalks
for nearly a mile. Enthusiastic. 10 ,000. That's
huge for a rural town. Massive. And most drivers
were honking in support. Only two counter protesters
seen. And the source specifically noted, none
of the usual coal rolling in your face Magier
response. Wow. They called it a sea change in
attitude. Yeah. That really is surprising. It
is. But there were also some complexities noted
in Alameda, California, for instance. What happened
there? Huge protests. Largest one attendee had
seen. But they worried about mission creep. Seeing
Palestinian flags hearing chants like from the
river to the sea The attendee argued for keeping
the focus strictly on pro -democracy in America
to build a broader coalition exactly to include
those Never Trump former Republicans who might
be new to protesting and might not agree on Middle
East politics It's a real strategic challenge
for movements like this. Yeah, that's a tough
needle to thread keeping focus versus inclusivity
definitely And just a couple more rural examples,
Daleyville, Wisconsin, Republican area, small
town, about 500 people rallied peacefully. Again,
huge majority of passersby supportive. Another
surprising shift. And Springfield, Missouri,
deep red Queen City of the Ozarks, strong turnout
around 2000. Lots of non -college students, too,
which was seen as impressive. Gave people hope
during, as one person put it, a scary time to
be alive. These stories really paint a picture,
don't they, beyond the national headlines? They
really do, and they kind of set the stage for
the political fallout after the bill actually
passed. Right, starting with House Minority Leader
Hakeem Jeffries. Yeah, he used his magic minute
that unlimited speaking time leaders get to protest
the bill. And he didn't just speak for a minute,
did he? Uh, no. Try eight hours and 44 minutes,
a new record. Almost nine hours. Yeah. What did
he do for all that time? He read from binders,
just pages and pages of personal stories from
Americans who'd be negatively impacted by the
bill. So basically sending a few clear messages.
Exactly. One, Democrats really hate this bill.
Two, they're upset about the harm it's going
to cause. And three, with the other party holding
the White House, House, and Senate, the trifecta,
there wasn't much else they could actually do
to stop it. It was a protest, pure and simple.
But he's still got flack for it, right? From
both sides. Yeah. Republicans, including Speaker
Johnson, called it empty grandstanding. Although
the sources pointed out the irony there. The
record Jeffries broke. It was held by Kevin McCarthy,
the former Republican minority leader. Bit of
hypocrisy there, perhaps? But even some Democrats
complained. Apparently so, particularly some
whose holiday travel plans got messed up by the
long session. Which our sources saw as a pretty
bad look, you know, suggesting maybe they cared
more about beer and hot dogs than fighting for
the people they represent. Yeah, optics weren't
great there. So the bill's passed. It's signed.
Now comes the spin war. And Team Trump is already
on it. Right. The Social Security Administration
sent out this pre -written email blast. What
did it say? claimed the bill gives long -awaited
tax relief to millions of older Americans, said
nearly 90 % of Social Security beneficiaries
will no longer pay federal income taxes on their
benefits. Nearly 90 % sounds huge, but our sources
are skeptical. Yeah. They call it pretty aggressive
spin, pointing out, well, first, a big chunk
of seniors already don't pay taxes on their benefits.
OK. Second, the real percentage who benefit will
be much smaller than 90%. Third, the break gets
harder to claim in later years. And fourth, it
completely disappears in January 2029. Which
just happens to me. When Trump leaves office.
Funny how that works out. So what's the Democrats'
plan? They'll blast the bill in the media, for
sure. But they're also looking ahead to the 2026
elections. So they'll keep at least some of their
powder dry, as one source put it, save some ammo
for later. And communication. That's always a
challenge, isn't it? Generally, yeah. The sources
suggest Democrats aren't always as good as Republicans
at getting their message across. But maybe they
have an easier job this time. Could be. The bill's
already unpopular. And Republicans, well, they
seem more prone to foot -and -mouth disease.
We've already seen examples, haven't we? Yeah.
Trump at a rally used that Shylock slur. No,
an anti -Semitic term. deleted it later after
pushback. He also uses globalist a lot. And that
comment from Representative Troy Nails. Right.
The Republican from Texas asked about 11 million
people potentially losing health care under the
bill. It doesn't matter because those are just
some Americans that aren't Americans and that
is the illegals. That's harsh. Pretty mean -spirited
notion, is how one source put it. And they raised
the question, you know, how do these politicians
square these kinds of comments and supporting
a bill that hits the poor and helps the rich
with their professed Christian values? A fair
question. Okay, so let's dig into that. Who does
win with this bill? And why should you, listening
right now, care? All right, let's break it down.
First up... Big winners, according to our sources,
multi -millionaires. How so? They get to pass
on way more wealth. The estate tax exemption
jumps up $15 million for individuals, $30 million
for couples, plus those 2017 Trump income tax
cuts. They're now permanent and they mostly benefit
higher earners. Okay, who else? Residents of
high -tax states. Think New York, California,
New Jersey. The limit on deducting state and
local taxes, the SALT deduction, goes up to $40
,000 a year for five years. That's a big jump
from the current $10 ,000 cap. Huge relief for
them. Though it does phase out for higher incomes,
over 500Ks, and snaps back to $10K later. Got
it. What about businesses? Small business owners
do well. That 2017 rule letting pass -through
businesses deduct up to 20 % of their income.
made permanent. And private equity keeps its
controversial carried interest tax work, plus
an expanded break for interest expenses. Any
specific industry is getting a boost. Quite a
few. Domestic car dealers get a tax deduction
on loan interest for U .S. made cars. Manufacturers
get things like bonus depreciation back for upgrades
and a permanent R &D tax break. And energy. Fossil
fuel producers get tax breaks and more federal
land open for drilling. Meanwhile, breaks for
clean energy get phased out. Big shift there.
OK, what about individuals like regular taxpayers?
There are some things. Taxpayers 65 and older
get a larger standard deduction. And tips and
overtime pay become exempt from income tax. That
sounds good for servers and hourly workers. It
does. But our sources add some caveats. Only
about 2 .5 percent of workers are actually in
tipped jobs. Many already pay no federal income
tax. And apparently there are many hoops to jump
through to actually benefit from this new rule.
So maybe not as big a deal in practice. Okay.
Anything else for individuals? Parents see the
child tax credit go up by $200 to $2 ,200 starting
next year, and it gets indexed to inflation permanently.
And there are these new Trump accounts for babies
born 2025 to 2028 seeded with $1 ,000 from the
government. Interesting. What about big corporations?
Telecommunications could benefit big time. The
bill options off a huge amount of radio spectrum
for wireless broadband. Think Starlink, 5G, 6G
networks, and generally corporations dodged a
lot of proposed tax hikes. And defense contractors.
Oh, yeah. $150 billion boost to defense spending,
a lot for new weapons systems, and space gets
nearly $10 billion for Moon Mars projects and
decommissioning the ISS. It sounds like there
are also some very specific targeted breaks in
there. Definitely. Our sources called them targeted
goodies, basically suggesting they were tucked
in to buy specific votes or reward donors. Like
what? Give us some examples. OK, how about a
massive deduction for business meals, but only
for Alaskan fishing boats north of the 50th parallel.
Very specific. Or permission for Alaskan whaling
captains to buy weapons because of Russian pirates.
A carve out from the minimum tax for oil and
gas reportedly for Senator Lankford. A $2 billion
tax break for the rum industry linked to Senator
Cassidy. Rum, OK. A $1 billion provision letting
spaceports sell tax -exempt bonds, one source
called it a wedding present to Jeff Bezos, and
a severance package to Elon Musk. A $3 billion
break for real estate investment trusts, maybe
linked to a specific donor, and generally support
for repealing federal tax on most firearms. It
does sound like a lot of specific interests being
catered to. It led former speaker Paul Ryan and
Karl Palmerloh from the American Enterprise Institute
to say this is a real departure from old GOP
principles. They argue for decades against littering
the tax code with these kinds of preferences
that pick winners and losers. Which brings us
to the flip side. If those are the winners, who
are the losers in this bill? Well, according
to the analysis, low -income Americans face significant
cuts, primarily to Medicaid health coverage and
food stamps, SNFP. How significant. A Yale budget
lab analysis estimates this bill will cost the
bottom 20 % of taxpayers about $560 a year on
average. Ouch. How are the cuts structured? New
work requirements for Medicaid, unless you're
elderly, disabled, or have young kids. Co -pays
for people on ACA plans. For food stamps, SNAP
P work requirements are expanded up to age 65.
And starting in 2028, states have to chip in
for food benefit costs, which are fully federal
now. OK, who else is negatively impacted? Renewable
energy industries, definitely. Solar and wind
tax credits phase out fast. Energy efficiency
home improvement credits disappear by year end.
What about tech? Actually, a bit of a win for
tech critics. A controversial plan to stop states
from regulating AI. That got removed from the
final bill. So electric vehicle makers lose out.
Yeah, that $7 ,500 consumer tax credit for buying
an EV is gone. And elite universities face higher
taxes on their endowment investment income. The
tax rate climbs up to 8 % for the wealthiest
ones. Anyone else on the losing end? Immigrants
face higher taxes through a few provisions. There's
a new 1 % tax on remittances money sent back
home. And restricted access to health coverage
tax credits for asylum seekers or those with
TPS. And gamblers, they can now only deduct 90
% of their losses against winnings. So you could
actually owe income tax even if you broke even
or lost money overall gambling? Potentially,
yeah. Seems complicated. This really leads into
something critical our sources highlighted. Yeah.
The growing hunger crisis in the U .S. It's pretty
stark. A morning consult poll tracked this over
five years. The number of people saying they
often or sometimes have insufficient food to
eat. It's now fifteen point six percent. Fifteen
point six percent. That's huge. It is. And it's
up more than 50 percent just since 2021. And
the fear is this budget bill with the SN at Keeks
will make it significantly worse. Millions could
lose benefits. The sources pointed out a disconnect,
didn't they? A shameful disconnect, they called
it, between record highs on Wall Street and these
rising hunger levels. The quote was, one out
of seven Americans often goes to bed hungry in
the richest country in history, while other people
hold 50 million dollar weddings. That's a powerful
image. And the scale of the SNAP cuts could eliminate
somewhere between six and nine billion meals
a year. Billion. With a B. Billion. Which is
roughly equivalent to the total amount of food
distributed by all food banks in America combined
each year. So food banks would have to double
their output just to break even. Exactly. And
food bank leaders are saying that's completely
unrealistic. They just don't have the capacity.
And there's a specific impact in rural areas
too. Yeah, this is really important. Many grocery
stores in low income rural areas depend heavily
on customers using SNAPI. So if SNAPI benefits
are cut? Those stores might fail. Creating food
deserts. rural residents, including potentially
many Trump voters, could find their only local
grocery store gone, maybe even their local hospital
if it's linked. And the sources doubt people
will connect those local closures back to this
bill. That was the concern raised, yeah, whether
they'll connect the dots. OK, let's broaden out.
What are some of the wider implications in future
battles brewing? Immigration seems like a big
one. Huge. Trump has promised deporting one million
undocumented immigrants a year, and the bill
appropriates $170 billion for border and immigration
enforcement. One million a year? Is that even
possible? It's incredibly difficult. There's
historical precedent. Eisenhower's operation
went back in 54, deported about 1 .1 million
Mexicans. But the sources draw contrast between
Eisenhower, the logistical strategist, suggesting
the execution would be challenging, to put it
mildly. What are the main hurdles? Massive logistical
ones. First, hiring and training at least 10
,000 new immigration workers. Hard to do and
there are easier jobs out there. Second, setting
up dozens, maybe hundreds of new detention facilities.
That means permits. Maybe using eminent domain,
which leads to lawsuits, building infrastructure,
roads, power, water, sewage, especially if they're
on remote federal land, like in the desert. Sounds
incredibly complex. Former enacting ICE directors
quoted basically said it's way harder than it
sounds. Then you need to expand the courts, hire
tons more immigration judges. The current 700
judges already have a backlog of 3 .5 million
cases. Three and a half million, wow. And just
finding undocumented workers will be tough. They'll
be wary. Plus, raiding businesses that hire them,
like meatpacking plants, that could anger some
very large and powerful corporations. Right.
OK. Shifting gears slightly. Global trade and
tariffs. What's the plan there? Trump wants 200
separate bilateral trade deals. So far, only
signed two full ones, UK and Vietnam, plus a
mini deal with China. And the Treasury Secretary,
Scott Besson, made some threats. Yeah. Warn countries
that if they don't have a deal by August 1st,
they'll face astronomical tariffs. Those tariffs
have been paused for 90 days. foreign countries
pay these tariffs. Which our sources say is just
flat out wrong. Tariffs are paid by U .S. importers
when goods enter the country, and that cost gets
passed on to U .S. businesses or ultimately to
you, the consumer, as higher prices. So we pay
the tariffs, not the other countries. Pretty
much, yeah. And China has huge leverage here.
They're the main source for rare earth elements,
tons of products, if trade stops. Factories close
here, unemployment. GDP crashes. That's the potential
risk, yeah. A risk the sources suggest Trump
maybe doesn't fully grasp. And Besson also made
that comment about poor people and SNFV forms.
Right, said Democrats think poor people are stupid
for struggling with the forms. But the sources
countered that. Yeah, pointing out that government
forms are often designed to be difficult. Tiny
errors, like leaving a box blank instead of writing
not applicable, can lead to rejection. It's not
about intelligence, it's about navigating bureaucracy.
Okay, another topic popping up in our sources.
The return of the COVID culture wars. It seems
like it. Dr. Amy Acton, who was Ohio's health
director early in the pandemic. I remember her.
She got a lot of attention. She did. Both positive,
lauded by public health folks. Even the New York
Times called her the leader we wish we all had.
Had a huge Facebook fan club. But also negative,
right? Yeah. Especially from the right. Hugely.
Almost as reviled in Ohio as Fauci was nationally.
Because of the lockdowns, mask mandates, gathering
bans, our sources note some right -wing groups
literally believe the pandemic was caused by
God to punish America, not a virus. So Acton
faced intense pushback, death threats, some anti
-Semitic ones too. She resigned in June 2020
under political pressure. The Republican governor,
Mike DeWine, consistently defended her personally.
And now she's running for governor. As a Democrat.
Yep. And it looks like both sides are gearing
up to basically re -litigate the whole pandemic
response. Likely opponent. The vivic Rameswami,
described as, as Trumpy as they come. He'll likely
argue, you know, medical science is bad. Government
shouldn't restrict freedom, even if millions
die. And her campaign. We'll try to frame it
as a choice between science and, well, the sources
quote someone framing the opposition as the spawn
of the devil. So, yeah, culture war footing.
Definitely sounds like it. OK, slightly different
tack. Democrats recruiting veterans. Yeah, actively
trying to get veterans, especially combat vets,
to run for house seats. Why? What's the strategy?
To counter that old perception that Democrats
are weak on national security. The thinking is
a candidate's military service can kind of neutralize
attacks from opponents, especially if the opponent
didn't serve. Makes sense. Who's leading this
effort? Representative Jason Crowe, Democrat
from Colorado, former Army Ranger himself. He
thinks veterans can appeal even to voters normally
hostile to Democrats, including other veterans
who leaned heavily Trump in 2024. Any examples
of recruits? Former Navy pilot Rebecca Bennett
in New Jersey, Kate Conley, six overseas deployments
running in New York. And they're encouraged by
recent successes, veterans winning Senate races
like Diego and Slotkin or running for governor
like Spanberger and Sherrill. Interesting strategy.
We'll see how it plays out. And finally, just
a quick note on Elon Musk. Right. He apparently
just formed a new political party called the
America Party. The America Party. Yeah. Hey,
something to keep an eye on, I guess. TBD on
whether that goes anywhere. All right. So let's
try to wrap this up. We've covered a lot of ground
today. We really have, from the nitty gritty
of this huge budget bill. To the really powerful
force of those grassroots protests across the
country. Looking at the complex logistics of
government policy like immigration enforcement.
And diving into these deep divisions in the culture
wars like we just saw with COVID. And throughout
it all, seeing how decisions made in Washington
really do filter down, affecting daily life for
millions. Food security, health care, taxes.
It's all connected. And as we dug through these
sources, one thing really set out, didn't it?
This profound disconnect. Definitely. Between
the headlines about Wall Street success and the
reality of growing food insecurity for so many
Americans. And at the same time, you see this
passionate public response. Huge protests. People
speaking out. Which leaves us with a final thought.
Maybe something for you to chew on. In a society
where the impacts of policy are becoming so tangible,
so immediate, how long can this gap persist?
This gap between the political narratives we
hear and the lived reality people experience?
A critical mass of people really does connect
the dots, as those sources put it, before they
demand a really fundamental shift in direction.
Something to think about.