WEBVTT 00:00:00.000 --> 00:00:02.980 Welcome to the deep dive. If you've been keeping 00:00:02.980 --> 00:00:05.179 an eye on the news, you know things in Washington 00:00:05.179 --> 00:00:07.500 DC and well everywhere else have been moving 00:00:07.500 --> 00:00:11.099 incredibly fast. So today we're going deep on 00:00:11.099 --> 00:00:14.599 three really interconnected stories that are 00:00:14.599 --> 00:00:17.199 shaping the American landscape right now. Our 00:00:17.199 --> 00:00:20.510 mission for you today is simple. We want to untangle 00:00:20.510 --> 00:00:23.829 this recent Senate budget bill, explore the president's, 00:00:23.829 --> 00:00:26.350 let's say, evolving legal tactics and their kind 00:00:26.350 --> 00:00:28.750 of surprising effects, and then really get into 00:00:28.750 --> 00:00:31.609 this intense debate around the Federal Reserve's 00:00:31.609 --> 00:00:33.570 independence. You'll walk away with a much clearer 00:00:33.570 --> 00:00:36.530 picture of all these moving pieces and what they 00:00:36.530 --> 00:00:39.149 actually mean. Absolutely. And we've pulled together 00:00:39.149 --> 00:00:42.210 a really rich set of sources to help us navigate 00:00:42.210 --> 00:00:44.350 all this. It gives a pretty comprehensive view 00:00:44.350 --> 00:00:46.570 of these, you know, high stakes decisions and 00:00:46.570 --> 00:00:48.460 often the hidden reasons behind it. We're going 00:00:48.460 --> 00:00:50.380 to try and connect the dots for you between policy, 00:00:50.439 --> 00:00:53.159 power, and personal influence to help you see 00:00:53.159 --> 00:00:55.460 the bigger picture. Right. Let's start with that 00:00:55.460 --> 00:00:58.000 Senate budget bill. It just passed, and I mean, 00:00:58.079 --> 00:01:01.500 the vote couldn't have been closer. 51 -50. J 00:01:01.500 --> 00:01:04.219 .D. Vance cast the deciding vote. So who voted 00:01:04.219 --> 00:01:06.299 no? Well, all the Democrats and independents, 00:01:06.500 --> 00:01:09.200 naturally, but also three Republicans, Susan 00:01:09.200 --> 00:01:12.579 Collins, Rand Paul, and Tom Tillis. And, you 00:01:12.579 --> 00:01:14.180 know, isn't it interesting about Senator Collins? 00:01:14.519 --> 00:01:17.180 Once again, she sort of manages to rebel. Right. 00:01:17.519 --> 00:01:20.540 But without her vote actually being the one to... 00:01:20.640 --> 00:01:23.159 tip the scales. Yeah, that's a pattern some observers 00:01:23.159 --> 00:01:24.840 definitely point out. But what really jumps out 00:01:24.840 --> 00:01:27.200 here is just the sheer size of this thing. Our 00:01:27.200 --> 00:01:29.040 sources are calling it a mega bill. It's around 00:01:29.040 --> 00:01:31.140 a thousand pages, even longer than the House 00:01:31.140 --> 00:01:34.019 version, actually. A thousand pages. Wow. Yeah. 00:01:34.400 --> 00:01:36.359 And it's well, let's just say it's highly unlikely 00:01:36.359 --> 00:01:38.959 any senator actually read it cover to cover before 00:01:38.959 --> 00:01:41.359 voting. OK, so what actually is in this beast? 00:01:41.780 --> 00:01:44.180 Well, the big ticket items are pretty significant. 00:01:44.359 --> 00:01:46.959 You've got major tax cuts, primarily benefiting 00:01:46.959 --> 00:01:50.000 wealthier folks, tougher requirements for Medicaid 00:01:50.000 --> 00:01:52.700 recipients, cuts to subsidies for green energy 00:01:52.700 --> 00:01:55.959 and credits for electric vehicles, also reductions 00:01:55.959 --> 00:01:58.799 in SNAP funding, that's the food stamp program, 00:01:59.540 --> 00:02:01.439 changes that make it harder to discharge student 00:02:01.439 --> 00:02:05.219 loan debt, huge $5 trillion hike in the debt 00:02:05.219 --> 00:02:08.840 limit. $5 trillion, okay. And tax credits for 00:02:08.840 --> 00:02:11.599 donations to school choice scholarship funds. 00:02:12.229 --> 00:02:15.150 Now, the CBO, the Congressional Budget Office, 00:02:15.569 --> 00:02:17.729 hasn't put out its final score yet. Right. The 00:02:17.729 --> 00:02:20.770 nonpartisan scorekeepers. Exactly. But there's 00:02:20.770 --> 00:02:22.849 really no doubt this bill is going to add dramatically 00:02:22.849 --> 00:02:25.229 to the deficit. And just as important as what's 00:02:25.229 --> 00:02:27.490 in it. It's like it got cut out, right? Absolutely. 00:02:27.789 --> 00:02:29.430 Some major things hit the cutting room floor. 00:02:29.729 --> 00:02:31.490 There was a plan to sell off huge amounts of 00:02:31.490 --> 00:02:34.490 public land out west. It's gone. A proposed tax 00:02:34.490 --> 00:02:36.849 on wind and solar projects using Chinese components 00:02:36.849 --> 00:02:39.530 also out. and a provision that would have stopped 00:02:39.530 --> 00:02:41.469 states from regulating artificial intelligence. 00:02:41.810 --> 00:02:43.449 That didn't make it either. And, you know, it's 00:02:43.449 --> 00:02:45.530 kind of funny, one source noted that the Senate 00:02:45.530 --> 00:02:48.370 parliamentarian, basically the rules referee, 00:02:48.590 --> 00:02:50.969 ended up cutting more items from the bill than 00:02:50.969 --> 00:02:53.330 all hundred senators combined. That's wild. OK, 00:02:53.330 --> 00:02:55.669 so we see what's in, what's out. But how did 00:02:55.669 --> 00:02:58.389 something this contentious, with so many moving 00:02:58.389 --> 00:03:01.849 parts, actually manage to pass that 51 -50 vote? 00:03:02.229 --> 00:03:04.349 This is where Senator Lisa Murkowski comes in, 00:03:04.449 --> 00:03:07.889 right? Her vote was key. It really was. And to 00:03:07.889 --> 00:03:09.750 understand it, you kind of have to rewind about 00:03:09.750 --> 00:03:13.030 seven years. Remember Senator John McCain's famous 00:03:13.030 --> 00:03:15.770 thumbs down vote that saved Obamacare? Oh, yeah, 00:03:15.770 --> 00:03:17.849 absolutely. Dramatic moment. Well, Murkowski 00:03:17.849 --> 00:03:20.629 was also a no vote back then, and she famously 00:03:20.629 --> 00:03:22.490 turned down a deal from Mitch McConnell, who 00:03:22.490 --> 00:03:25.169 was majority leader at the time. The deal would 00:03:25.169 --> 00:03:27.289 have exempted Alaska from the changes to the 00:03:27.289 --> 00:03:29.550 ACA, but she rejected it, apparently out of a 00:03:29.550 --> 00:03:31.449 sense of fairness to other states. Right. I remember 00:03:31.449 --> 00:03:34.719 that. So fast forward to now. Right. So this 00:03:34.719 --> 00:03:37.379 time, it was a very similar situation. The current 00:03:37.379 --> 00:03:39.900 majority leader, John Thune, needed just one 00:03:39.900 --> 00:03:43.159 more vote. He needed either Murkowski, Collins, 00:03:43.479 --> 00:03:46.439 Tillis, or Paul. Now, Paul and Tillis were seen 00:03:46.439 --> 00:03:49.800 as pretty much definite nos. Collins, she's facing 00:03:49.800 --> 00:03:52.479 a tough re -election campaign. OK. So Murkowski 00:03:52.479 --> 00:03:56.259 became, let's say, the most likely target. Thune 00:03:56.259 --> 00:03:58.219 offered her basically the same kind of deal as 00:03:58.219 --> 00:04:01.039 before, exempt Alaska from the proposed cuts 00:04:01.039 --> 00:04:04.000 to Medicaid and SNAP. And this time? This time 00:04:04.000 --> 00:04:07.060 she took the deal. Now, the parliamentarian did 00:04:07.060 --> 00:04:09.979 end up striking down the specific Medicaid exemption 00:04:09.979 --> 00:04:13.300 part, but it got sort of replaced with about 00:04:13.300 --> 00:04:16.180 $50 billion in new funding targeted at certain 00:04:16.180 --> 00:04:19.060 types of rural hospitals. The kind that, wouldn't 00:04:19.060 --> 00:04:21.139 you know it, happened to be quite common in Alaska. 00:04:21.660 --> 00:04:24.220 50 billion? That's quite a replacement. So how 00:04:24.220 --> 00:04:26.459 do people react? Our sources seem pretty critical 00:04:26.459 --> 00:04:28.579 of her explanation. Yeah, they didn't mince words. 00:04:29.160 --> 00:04:31.560 One described her tears after the vote as crocodile 00:04:31.560 --> 00:04:33.920 tears. Sarah claims about having to do it for 00:04:33.920 --> 00:04:36.459 Alaskans were either dishonest or naive. She 00:04:36.459 --> 00:04:38.839 did admit she didn't actually like the final 00:04:38.839 --> 00:04:41.779 bill and said she hoped the House would fix it. 00:04:42.120 --> 00:04:44.079 But... You know, the source points out the House 00:04:44.079 --> 00:04:45.759 is way more conservative and they were the ones 00:04:45.759 --> 00:04:47.519 pushing for the Medicaid cuts in the first place. 00:04:47.819 --> 00:04:50.920 So that hope seems unlikely. Yeah, that doesn't 00:04:50.920 --> 00:04:53.199 quite add up. And Senator Rand Paul really went 00:04:53.199 --> 00:04:55.639 after her, didn't he? He did. Slammed her publicly, 00:04:56.259 --> 00:04:58.319 said she basically took a bailout for Alaska, 00:04:58.899 --> 00:05:00.839 and threw everyone else under the bus. And her 00:05:00.839 --> 00:05:03.319 response. According to one reporter, when asked 00:05:03.319 --> 00:05:06.300 about Paul's comments, she just gave this furious 00:05:06.300 --> 00:05:09.660 stare for like 10 seconds. And then finally stammered 00:05:09.660 --> 00:05:11.139 something about her obligation to the people 00:05:11.139 --> 00:05:14.939 of Alaska. Intense. OK, so the bill passes the 00:05:14.939 --> 00:05:17.480 Senate. What happens now in the House? Well, 00:05:17.600 --> 00:05:19.540 predictably, the Freedom Caucus members are not 00:05:19.540 --> 00:05:21.300 happy. They're saying they can't vote for the 00:05:21.300 --> 00:05:23.420 Senate version. But will they stick to that? 00:05:24.980 --> 00:05:28.949 History suggests maybe not. One source rather 00:05:28.949 --> 00:05:31.230 bluntly says they eventually fold like a cheap 00:05:31.230 --> 00:05:33.449 suit every time they make these kinds of threats. 00:05:33.990 --> 00:05:36.730 So we'll see. Talks just started today, July 00:05:36.730 --> 00:05:39.750 2nd. And there's this July 4th deadline hanging 00:05:39.750 --> 00:05:42.170 over everything. Trump wants it on his desk by 00:05:42.170 --> 00:05:44.870 then. Yeah, he set that deadline. Says he wants 00:05:44.870 --> 00:05:47.949 the pageantry of signing it on Independence Day. 00:05:48.149 --> 00:05:50.420 Pageantry. Right. But our sources are pretty 00:05:50.420 --> 00:05:53.220 skeptical that pageantry is the real driver here. 00:05:53.620 --> 00:05:56.300 Deadlines like this are incredibly useful tools. 00:05:56.920 --> 00:05:59.680 They force Congress to move fast, often before 00:05:59.680 --> 00:06:01.980 members can fully read what they're voting on 00:06:01.980 --> 00:06:05.040 or before constituents can really weigh in. Creates 00:06:05.040 --> 00:06:08.519 urgency, limits scrutiny. Exactly. And plus, 00:06:08.720 --> 00:06:11.439 there's this tactic, kind of Nixonian, that Trump 00:06:11.439 --> 00:06:14.720 uses regularly. Yeah. potentially bad news or 00:06:14.720 --> 00:06:17.000 controversial stuff over a weekend, or in this 00:06:17.000 --> 00:06:18.759 case a holiday weekend when people aren't paying 00:06:18.759 --> 00:06:22.040 as much attention, mute the coverage. Makes sense. 00:06:22.199 --> 00:06:24.279 OK, let's pivot now. Another major theme from 00:06:24.279 --> 00:06:26.480 our sources is the president's approach to the 00:06:26.480 --> 00:06:29.970 legal system. He's often described as using lawsuits 00:06:29.970 --> 00:06:32.990 very strategically. That's putting it mildly. 00:06:33.110 --> 00:06:35.470 One source says he puts the frivolous in frivolous 00:06:35.470 --> 00:06:37.930 lawsuits, often using them just to delay payments 00:06:37.930 --> 00:06:40.329 or pressure opponents into concessions. And the 00:06:40.329 --> 00:06:42.649 Paramount settlement is a key example here. It 00:06:42.649 --> 00:06:45.889 really is. Yeah. So Trump sued CBS's 60 Minutes 00:06:45.889 --> 00:06:49.430 program for defamation. The claim was they edited 00:06:49.430 --> 00:06:52.250 an interview with Kamala Harris in a way that 00:06:52.250 --> 00:06:54.889 misrepresented her, made her look better, and 00:06:54.889 --> 00:06:57.430 that this somehow personally damaged him. Which 00:06:57.430 --> 00:07:00.529 sounds... Odd. Yeah. Our sources flat out call 00:07:00.529 --> 00:07:03.550 it a meritless claim. That's just not how defamation 00:07:03.550 --> 00:07:06.209 law works. You generally need to show a false 00:07:06.209 --> 00:07:08.490 statement of fact, cause actual harm to your 00:07:08.490 --> 00:07:10.629 reputation, not just that an opponent looked 00:07:10.629 --> 00:07:12.810 good in an edited interview. So if the claim 00:07:12.810 --> 00:07:14.949 was weak, why on earth did Paramount settle? 00:07:15.329 --> 00:07:17.250 Well, that's where the strategy comes in. Our 00:07:17.250 --> 00:07:20.350 sources lay out a few key reasons. First, Trump 00:07:20.350 --> 00:07:23.430 has basically unlimited resources and willingness 00:07:23.430 --> 00:07:25.930 to drag things out in court forever. Defending 00:07:25.930 --> 00:07:28.050 against that, even if you eventually win, gets 00:07:28.050 --> 00:07:30.790 incredibly expensive. Right. Bleed them dry financially. 00:07:30.970 --> 00:07:33.689 Pretty much. Second, he's very effective at turning 00:07:33.689 --> 00:07:36.050 his base against companies or media outlets he 00:07:36.050 --> 00:07:39.170 targets. That can mean lower viewership, lost 00:07:39.170 --> 00:07:41.750 advertising revenue, real financial pain. And 00:07:41.750 --> 00:07:43.949 finally, the big one here. Paramount, the parent 00:07:43.949 --> 00:07:48.050 company of CBS, had a huge merger pending. As 00:07:48.050 --> 00:07:51.050 president, Trump had the power to potentially 00:07:51.050 --> 00:07:54.089 interfere with that, complicate it, maybe even 00:07:54.089 --> 00:07:56.910 kill it outright. We're talking potential losses 00:07:56.910 --> 00:07:58.730 in the hundreds of millions, maybe billions. 00:07:58.829 --> 00:08:02.430 Wow. So huge leverage. Massive leverage. So they 00:08:02.430 --> 00:08:05.910 settled. The deal was $16 million in cash. $16 00:08:05.910 --> 00:08:07.990 million? Yeah. But it went to his presidential 00:08:07.990 --> 00:08:10.269 library foundation, not directly into his pocket. 00:08:10.870 --> 00:08:14.189 They also agreed to give about $14 million worth 00:08:14.189 --> 00:08:17.709 of free advertising and PSAs promoting conservative 00:08:17.709 --> 00:08:21.069 causes. And they agreed to release unedited transcripts 00:08:21.069 --> 00:08:23.170 of any future interviews with presidential candidates. 00:08:23.509 --> 00:08:25.230 Paramount tried to spin those last points as 00:08:25.230 --> 00:08:27.250 wins, right? Like, see, he didn't get the money 00:08:27.250 --> 00:08:29.350 directly and we didn't have to apologize. Yeah, 00:08:29.350 --> 00:08:31.589 but our sources found that argument laughable. 00:08:31.750 --> 00:08:33.710 They argue the lines between Trump the person, 00:08:33.789 --> 00:08:36.029 Trump the business, Trump the foundation, Trump 00:08:36.029 --> 00:08:38.809 the payticey. They're basically meaningless. 00:08:38.830 --> 00:08:41.610 It's all fungible. Exactly. They suggest he can 00:08:41.610 --> 00:08:44.090 easily find ways to use that 16 million dollars 00:08:44.090 --> 00:08:46.350 for personal benefit, fixing up Mar -a -Lago, 00:08:46.610 --> 00:08:49.149 paying family members, whatever. One source even 00:08:49.149 --> 00:08:52.090 quotes Oliver Wendell Holmes, sort of paraphrasing, 00:08:52.370 --> 00:08:54.309 saying Trump has a second class intellect, but 00:08:54.309 --> 00:08:57.980 he's a first class grifter. Strong words. But 00:08:57.980 --> 00:09:00.580 the core point is this settlement shows a way 00:09:00.580 --> 00:09:02.899 to use presidential power for personal financial 00:09:02.899 --> 00:09:06.159 gain and also to force private companies to push 00:09:06.159 --> 00:09:09.179 a political agenda. Precisely. Our sources connect 00:09:09.179 --> 00:09:11.740 those two aspects very directly. The financial 00:09:11.740 --> 00:09:14.080 part they compare to, like mafia protection money. 00:09:14.580 --> 00:09:17.139 The political agenda part, they invoke the historical 00:09:17.139 --> 00:09:19.659 image of the black shirts, forcing compliance. 00:09:19.879 --> 00:09:22.490 Heavy comparisons. Very. And they even speculate 00:09:22.490 --> 00:09:24.330 the whole thing might have been planned before 00:09:24.330 --> 00:09:26.830 the 60 minutes interview even aired, like setting 00:09:26.830 --> 00:09:29.149 up the pretext. OK, so that's the Paramount case. 00:09:29.230 --> 00:09:31.529 But this isn't a one off, is it? There's a next 00:09:31.529 --> 00:09:34.149 wave of lawsuits. Seems like it. And one looks 00:09:34.149 --> 00:09:36.889 remarkably similar. Trump is suing Ann Seltzer, 00:09:37.269 --> 00:09:39.429 a well -respected pollster, and the Des Moines 00:09:39.429 --> 00:09:43.190 Register newspaper for fraud. Fraud. Why? Because 00:09:43.190 --> 00:09:46.190 Seltzer's final poll before the 2024 election 00:09:46.190 --> 00:09:49.960 predicted Kamala Harris would win Iowa. But Trump 00:09:49.960 --> 00:09:54.659 actually won the state. Wait. He won. How is 00:09:54.659 --> 00:09:57.679 that fraud that damaged him? Exactly the question 00:09:57.679 --> 00:10:00.759 our sources raise. It seems completely counterintuitive. 00:10:00.840 --> 00:10:03.580 So what's the legal maneuvering here? Well, his 00:10:03.580 --> 00:10:06.039 lawyers first tried to dismiss the case in federal 00:10:06.039 --> 00:10:09.240 court without prejudice, meaning they could refile 00:10:09.240 --> 00:10:12.679 it. Why? Because a new Iowa state law just took 00:10:12.679 --> 00:10:15.240 effect yesterday. making these kinds of lawsuits 00:10:15.240 --> 00:10:18.100 much harder to win. Ah, timing. Yep. So they 00:10:18.100 --> 00:10:20.360 quickly refiled the same lawsuit in Iowa State 00:10:20.360 --> 00:10:22.639 Court just under the wire to try and use the 00:10:22.639 --> 00:10:24.940 older, more favorable version of the law. And 00:10:24.940 --> 00:10:27.120 the goal here isn't really winning damages, is 00:10:27.120 --> 00:10:30.059 it? Probably not. Yeah. Our sources figure he'll 00:10:30.059 --> 00:10:32.559 mostly use it to, as they put it, bloviate about 00:10:32.559 --> 00:10:35.120 being a victim, fuel the narrative. But does 00:10:35.120 --> 00:10:37.740 this fight actually make sense for him? Strategically, 00:10:37.799 --> 00:10:39.840 he's not likely to get a big payout like with 00:10:39.840 --> 00:10:42.419 Paramount. No free media advertising. Right. 00:10:42.620 --> 00:10:45.000 And interestingly, the defense for Selser and 00:10:45.000 --> 00:10:47.340 the Register is being handled pro bono for free 00:10:47.340 --> 00:10:50.039 by FIRE, the Foundation for Individual Rights 00:10:50.039 --> 00:10:52.720 and Expression. And our sources say FIRE would 00:10:52.720 --> 00:10:54.600 love, love, love the chance to take Trump on 00:10:54.600 --> 00:10:56.899 publicly over this. They think he might end up 00:10:56.899 --> 00:10:59.399 looking pretty foolish with lots of egg on his 00:10:59.399 --> 00:11:02.059 face. Interesting. An opponent eager for the 00:11:02.059 --> 00:11:04.700 public fight. What else is happening on the lawsuit 00:11:04.700 --> 00:11:06.820 front? There's another one down in Los Angeles. 00:11:07.480 --> 00:11:09.279 The Department of Justice is suing the city, 00:11:09.879 --> 00:11:12.399 the mayor, Karen Bass, and the city council. 00:11:12.440 --> 00:11:15.120 Over what? They're arguing LA's sanctuary -hitty 00:11:15.120 --> 00:11:17.639 policies are causing violence, chaos, and attacks 00:11:17.639 --> 00:11:20.320 on law enforcement and leading to lawlessness, 00:11:20.659 --> 00:11:23.940 rioting, looting, and vandalism. Strong accusations. 00:11:24.019 --> 00:11:27.870 Is there a legal basis? Well... Our sources can 00:11:27.870 --> 00:11:29.870 see there might be a legitimate argument that 00:11:29.870 --> 00:11:31.929 some of L .A.'s specific immigration policies 00:11:31.929 --> 00:11:33.929 could potentially overstep federal authority. 00:11:34.230 --> 00:11:37.730 But they argue the DOJ lawsuit is mostly just 00:11:37.730 --> 00:11:39.750 posturing and spending lots of hot air. Why? 00:11:40.049 --> 00:11:42.409 Because in their view, L .A. is an easy target. 00:11:42.669 --> 00:11:45.330 It's a blue city in a blue state, predominantly 00:11:45.330 --> 00:11:48.690 non -white population. So a useful bugaboo, as 00:11:48.690 --> 00:11:51.090 the source puts it, political theater. That's 00:11:51.090 --> 00:11:53.210 the assessment. Yeah. A convenient enemy for 00:11:53.210 --> 00:11:55.769 the administration. OK, so Trump himself seems 00:11:55.769 --> 00:11:58.720 pretty adept at using the legal system, delaying 00:11:58.720 --> 00:12:01.259 things, applying pressure. But what about the 00:12:01.259 --> 00:12:03.639 people working for him, carrying out these plans? 00:12:04.440 --> 00:12:06.879 That's where things get trickier. Our sources 00:12:06.879 --> 00:12:09.480 suggest that while Trump might be well armored 00:12:09.480 --> 00:12:13.000 legally, his underlings are much more vulnerable. 00:12:13.600 --> 00:12:16.860 Their armor is far less impenetrable. Why is 00:12:16.860 --> 00:12:19.500 that? Several reasons. Many of them aren't government 00:12:19.500 --> 00:12:21.399 employees, so they don't have the same legal 00:12:21.399 --> 00:12:24.220 protections. A lot of the questionable actions 00:12:24.220 --> 00:12:27.059 could be state -level crimes or civil offenses, 00:12:27.580 --> 00:12:29.080 things the presidential pardons can't touch. 00:12:29.559 --> 00:12:31.419 Right. Pardons are mostly for federal crimes. 00:12:31.600 --> 00:12:34.019 Exactly. And if they're lawyers, they can face 00:12:34.019 --> 00:12:36.539 consequences from their state bar associations. 00:12:37.220 --> 00:12:39.639 Losing your law license in a bar court hearing 00:12:39.639 --> 00:12:42.440 can sometimes be easier than getting convicted 00:12:42.440 --> 00:12:45.840 in a criminal or civil trial. Their careers are 00:12:45.840 --> 00:12:48.000 directly on the line. And we're seeing examples 00:12:48.000 --> 00:12:50.480 of this play out. We really are. Just recently, 00:12:50.700 --> 00:12:52.759 Kenneth Cheesebrough, he was one of the architects 00:12:52.759 --> 00:12:55.320 of the fake elector scheme. He just lost his 00:12:55.320 --> 00:12:57.519 law license in New York for unethical conduct. 00:12:58.000 --> 00:13:01.639 His appeal was denied. John Eastman, another 00:13:01.639 --> 00:13:04.179 lawyer central to the efforts to overturn the 00:13:04.179 --> 00:13:07.779 2020 election, who pushed those theories and, 00:13:07.980 --> 00:13:11.120 according to courts, lied in legal filings. Yeah. 00:13:11.220 --> 00:13:14.379 He's disbarred in California. The ruling cited 00:13:14.639 --> 00:13:18.399 multiple acts of moral turpitude, his appeal. 00:13:19.289 --> 00:13:22.509 Also rejected. Disbarred. That's serious. Very 00:13:22.509 --> 00:13:24.409 serious. And then you have someone like Mike 00:13:24.409 --> 00:13:26.889 Lindell, the MyPillow founder. His relentless 00:13:26.889 --> 00:13:29.809 pushing of 2020 election conspiracies has absolutely 00:13:29.809 --> 00:13:32.149 wrecked his business and reputation. He just 00:13:32.149 --> 00:13:34.389 lost another lawsuit this week. This one was 00:13:34.389 --> 00:13:36.230 brought by Eric Kummer, formerly of Dominion 00:13:36.230 --> 00:13:38.809 Voting Systems. Lindell had accused Kummer of 00:13:38.809 --> 00:13:40.250 being a traitor, part of the conspiracy. What 00:13:40.250 --> 00:13:42.470 was Lindell's defense? Basically, he argued that 00:13:42.470 --> 00:13:44.549 if you genuinely believe something is true, even 00:13:44.549 --> 00:13:47.470 if it's false, it can't be defamatory. The jury 00:13:47.470 --> 00:13:49.480 didn't buy it. And the verdict? They awarded 00:13:49.480 --> 00:13:53.200 Coomer $2 .3 million. Now, given all the other 00:13:53.200 --> 00:13:54.740 judgments against Lindell, Coomer might never 00:13:54.740 --> 00:13:57.039 actually see that money. But there's still real 00:13:57.039 --> 00:14:00.039 value, our sources argue, in having a court and 00:14:00.039 --> 00:14:02.860 a jury officially declare that these claims were, 00:14:02.860 --> 00:14:06.860 in fact, Yeah, the public record matters. And 00:14:06.860 --> 00:14:09.879 Lindell, Cheesebro, Eastman, they join others 00:14:09.879 --> 00:14:12.379 like Rudy Giuliani, Jenna Ellis, who've also 00:14:12.379 --> 00:14:15.519 faced disbarment or hefty judgments. So the big 00:14:15.519 --> 00:14:18.700 question is, are the people currently doing the 00:14:18.700 --> 00:14:20.259 president's bidding, are they looking at these 00:14:20.259 --> 00:14:22.419 examples? Are they getting nervous about what 00:14:22.419 --> 00:14:24.559 might happen to their careers, their lives down 00:14:24.559 --> 00:14:26.460 the road? It certainly raises that question. 00:14:26.820 --> 00:14:28.860 The potential consequences are becoming clearer 00:14:28.860 --> 00:14:31.470 and clearer. OK, let's shift to our final major 00:14:31.470 --> 00:14:35.029 topic, the Federal Reserve, an institution usually 00:14:35.029 --> 00:14:38.870 seen as independent, but now facing intense scrutiny. 00:14:39.490 --> 00:14:41.909 Our sources even float this really provocative 00:14:41.909 --> 00:14:45.129 idea that, quote, Fed independence is already 00:14:45.129 --> 00:14:47.289 dead. Yeah, it's a stark argument. The reason 00:14:47.289 --> 00:14:49.269 goes something like this. Central banks don't 00:14:49.269 --> 00:14:51.269 have some God given right to be independent. 00:14:51.649 --> 00:14:53.470 There's nothing in the U .S. Constitution that 00:14:53.470 --> 00:14:56.049 sets up the Fed to operate like a shadow government, 00:14:56.470 --> 00:14:59.090 making policy outside the normal political process. 00:14:59.289 --> 00:15:01.990 And President Trump's rhetoric towards the current 00:15:01.990 --> 00:15:05.730 Fed chair, Jay Powell, has been intense. Oh, 00:15:05.889 --> 00:15:07.950 absolutely relentless. Trump has called Powell 00:15:07.950 --> 00:15:12.090 low IQ, a very stupid person, terrible, a major 00:15:12.090 --> 00:15:15.289 loser, Mr. Too Late, and even a total and complete 00:15:15.289 --> 00:15:18.490 moron. Just scathing personal attacks. And this 00:15:18.490 --> 00:15:20.830 is a pattern, right? It does. Our sources point 00:15:20.830 --> 00:15:23.429 out Trump has already... effectively purged the 00:15:23.429 --> 00:15:26.350 top leadership at the military, the CIA, NSA, 00:15:26.509 --> 00:15:29.070 FBI, the Justice Department. So they argue it 00:15:29.070 --> 00:15:30.950 would actually be out of character if he didn't 00:15:30.950 --> 00:15:34.429 go after the Fed, too. So why? Why is he so focused 00:15:34.429 --> 00:15:36.389 on getting control over interest rates, over 00:15:36.389 --> 00:15:39.529 the Fed's bond buying programs? Our sources suggest 00:15:39.529 --> 00:15:41.570 it's basically an admission, perhaps an unconscious 00:15:41.570 --> 00:15:43.990 one, that his own fiscal policies, particularly 00:15:43.990 --> 00:15:46.269 that big, beautiful bill we talked about earlier, 00:15:46.350 --> 00:15:48.629 the budget plan, are really straining the limits 00:15:48.629 --> 00:15:51.679 of U .S. debt. Oh, so? Well, the CBO, as we mentioned, 00:15:51.840 --> 00:15:54.139 projects that draft bill, adds another $3 .3 00:15:54.139 --> 00:15:57.720 trillion to the deficit by 2034. And a huge chunk 00:15:57.720 --> 00:16:00.059 of that comes from just making the Trump 1 .0 00:16:00.059 --> 00:16:02.379 tax cuts permanent. OK, so the debt picture is 00:16:02.379 --> 00:16:04.600 getting worse. Connect that to the Fed. Right. 00:16:04.639 --> 00:16:06.299 So the bigger picture, according to these sources, 00:16:06.519 --> 00:16:09.519 is that the US is caught in a runaway debt compound 00:16:09.519 --> 00:16:12.480 trap. Think of compound interest, but for national 00:16:12.480 --> 00:16:15.120 debt. And it's spiraling. Our budget deficit 00:16:15.120 --> 00:16:18.940 is already high, 6 .7 % of GDP, even with the 00:16:18.940 --> 00:16:21.240 economy supposedly at full employment. If we 00:16:21.240 --> 00:16:23.580 hit a recession, that could easily jump into 00:16:23.580 --> 00:16:25.919 diggle digits. And the cost of servicing that 00:16:25.919 --> 00:16:28.480 debt? It's climbing fast. Interest payments were 00:16:28.480 --> 00:16:32.580 1 .6 % of GDP back in 2018. This year, they're 00:16:32.580 --> 00:16:35.330 expected to be 3 .2%. That makes the whole federal 00:16:35.330 --> 00:16:37.470 budget incredibly sensitive to any changes in 00:16:37.470 --> 00:16:39.409 interest rates. Wow, doubled in just a few years. 00:16:39.629 --> 00:16:41.710 Exactly. And we're apparently about to cross 00:16:41.710 --> 00:16:43.889 this threshold called the Niall Ferguson rule, 00:16:44.210 --> 00:16:46.610 named after the historian, which basically says 00:16:46.610 --> 00:16:49.470 great powers start to decline when the cost of 00:16:49.470 --> 00:16:52.049 paying interest on their debt exceeds their military 00:16:52.049 --> 00:16:54.370 spending. That sounds ominous. It does. And just 00:16:54.370 --> 00:16:56.710 look at the overall debt level. Net public debt 00:16:56.710 --> 00:16:59.649 was about 54 % of GDP back around the year 2000. 00:16:59.870 --> 00:17:03.899 Now it's 121%. and heading towards 140 percent. 00:17:04.079 --> 00:17:06.119 So what's driving this massive increase? Is it 00:17:06.119 --> 00:17:08.759 just demographics, social programs? Those play 00:17:08.759 --> 00:17:11.440 a role, certainly demographics, middle class 00:17:11.440 --> 00:17:14.519 entitlements. But interestingly, our sources 00:17:14.519 --> 00:17:18.160 also point a finger directly at the era of independent 00:17:18.160 --> 00:17:20.359 central banks. They're saying independent central 00:17:20.359 --> 00:17:22.880 banks contributed to the debt problem. That seems 00:17:22.880 --> 00:17:25.380 counterintuitive. It does, doesn't it? But the 00:17:25.380 --> 00:17:29.980 argument is this. Have these powerful, unelected 00:17:30.029 --> 00:17:32.829 Overmighty technocrats, as one source calls them, 00:17:33.250 --> 00:17:35.910 actually made things better. They argue that 00:17:35.910 --> 00:17:38.390 these economists, these econometric presbyters, 00:17:38.789 --> 00:17:41.250 have made serious and repeated mistakes in monetary 00:17:41.250 --> 00:17:44.589 policy. They were supposedly enthralled to economic 00:17:44.589 --> 00:17:47.289 models that had a built -in bias towards creating 00:17:47.289 --> 00:17:50.170 more debt. How so? Well, they focused intensely 00:17:50.170 --> 00:17:53.009 on keeping consumer price inflation low, which 00:17:53.009 --> 00:17:55.009 was easy when China was flooding the world with 00:17:55.009 --> 00:17:57.880 cheap manufactured goods. Right. prices down. 00:17:57.980 --> 00:17:59.880 But while they were focused on consumer prices, 00:18:00.240 --> 00:18:02.539 they let asset price inflation think stocks, 00:18:02.920 --> 00:18:05.559 real estate run wild and they allowed huge debt 00:18:05.559 --> 00:18:08.920 bubbles to form, which, of course, blew up spectacularly 00:18:08.920 --> 00:18:11.359 in 2008. OK, I see the argument. And they point 00:18:11.359 --> 00:18:14.220 to other central banks, too. Oh, yeah. The European 00:18:14.220 --> 00:18:17.079 Central Bank gets singled out, described as being 00:18:17.079 --> 00:18:21.119 like Vatican City answerable to no one. The claim 00:18:21.119 --> 00:18:24.180 is the ECB actually caused Europe's lost decade 00:18:24.180 --> 00:18:27.319 of growth by tightening monetary policy too much, 00:18:27.660 --> 00:18:29.700 pushing half the eurozone into a debt crisis 00:18:29.700 --> 00:18:32.039 it didn't need to have. Wow. And it gets worse. 00:18:32.440 --> 00:18:35.339 The source claims the ECB used instruments of 00:18:35.339 --> 00:18:37.880 financial torture basically, threatening financial 00:18:37.880 --> 00:18:41.039 stability to effectively force out elected governments 00:18:41.039 --> 00:18:43.970 in Greece and Italy. And they sent secret letters 00:18:43.970 --> 00:18:46.589 demanding Spain and Italy change their constitutions 00:18:46.589 --> 00:18:48.849 and labor laws. Secret letters dictating policy. 00:18:49.029 --> 00:18:51.329 That's quite an accusation against an independent 00:18:51.329 --> 00:18:54.069 central bank. It is. And they also argue the 00:18:54.069 --> 00:18:56.089 Fed, the ECB, the Bank of England, they all made 00:18:56.089 --> 00:18:58.509 a hash of COVID inflation. They kept pushing 00:18:58.509 --> 00:19:00.630 quantitative easing, pumping money into the system 00:19:00.630 --> 00:19:03.230 long after the economic recovery was clearly 00:19:03.230 --> 00:19:05.940 underway, making inflation worse. So the argument 00:19:05.940 --> 00:19:08.539 is, maybe this independence isn't all it's cracked 00:19:08.539 --> 00:19:10.880 up to be. And historically, the Fed wasn't always 00:19:10.880 --> 00:19:13.319 this independent. Not at all. Yeah. That's a 00:19:13.319 --> 00:19:16.140 really key point from our sources. For most of 00:19:16.140 --> 00:19:19.980 its 111 year history, the Fed wasn't truly independent 00:19:19.980 --> 00:19:23.339 in the way we think of it now until 1937. They 00:19:23.339 --> 00:19:25.380 didn't even have their own building. They met 00:19:25.380 --> 00:19:27.339 in a borrowed room in the Treasury Department. 00:19:27.740 --> 00:19:31.150 Seriously? Yeah. And one former chairman, Mariner 00:19:31.150 --> 00:19:33.589 Echols, later complained that during his tenure, 00:19:33.869 --> 00:19:36.349 he was basically just a cipher who did whatever 00:19:36.349 --> 00:19:38.950 the Treasury told him to do. So when did the 00:19:38.950 --> 00:19:41.109 president start really leaning on the Fed? President 00:19:41.109 --> 00:19:43.910 Harry Truman is a prime example. He apparently 00:19:43.910 --> 00:19:47.049 harassed Echols' successor relentlessly because 00:19:47.049 --> 00:19:49.609 the guy wouldn't agree to just buy up all the 00:19:49.609 --> 00:19:51.650 government debt needed to keep on yields low 00:19:51.650 --> 00:19:54.130 after World War II. What happened? Truman basically 00:19:54.130 --> 00:19:56.130 forced him into something called the Fed -Treasury 00:19:56.130 --> 00:19:58.589 Accord. Our sources call it total subjugation. 00:19:58.799 --> 00:20:02.019 The Fed essentially agreed to keep interest rates 00:20:02.019 --> 00:20:04.119 artificially low. Then the effect of that. It 00:20:04.119 --> 00:20:06.000 helped wipe out a lot of America's war debt, 00:20:06.319 --> 00:20:08.180 but it did it through something called financial 00:20:08.180 --> 00:20:10.440 repression and by letting inflation run into 00:20:10.440 --> 00:20:13.799 double digits. Basically, savers and bondholders 00:20:13.799 --> 00:20:16.980 got screwed. So Truman bullied the Fed chair 00:20:16.980 --> 00:20:19.920 into submission. Pretty much. He eventually forced 00:20:19.920 --> 00:20:22.579 the guy to resign. And Truman even accused him 00:20:22.579 --> 00:20:25.720 publicly of serving Stalin's interests for wanting 00:20:25.720 --> 00:20:29.049 higher interest rates. Wow. Using foreign adversaries. 00:20:29.529 --> 00:20:31.589 Yeah. Our sources speculate Trump might find 00:20:31.589 --> 00:20:34.390 appealing today. Maybe swapping Stalin for Xi 00:20:34.390 --> 00:20:36.470 Jinping. Yeah. And it didn't stop with Truman. 00:20:36.970 --> 00:20:39.910 Even Paul Volcker. The guy famous for taming 00:20:39.910 --> 00:20:42.829 inflation in the 80s. That's the one. Even he 00:20:42.829 --> 00:20:46.349 got bullied. Ronald Reagan's chief of staff apparently 00:20:46.349 --> 00:20:49.630 called him up in 1984 and explicitly ordered 00:20:49.630 --> 00:20:52.369 him not to raise interest rates. before the presidential 00:20:52.369 --> 00:20:54.890 election. So this idea of presidential interference 00:20:54.890 --> 00:20:57.910 isn't new at all. Not even close. Adorno Campanella, 00:20:58.170 --> 00:20:59.990 an analyst at Unicredit, basically says Trump 00:20:59.990 --> 00:21:02.009 is just trying to turn back the clock to how 00:21:02.009 --> 00:21:04.190 things used to be, the historical norm. And it's 00:21:04.190 --> 00:21:06.150 not just Republicans pushing on the Fed's autonomy. 00:21:06.710 --> 00:21:09.029 No. Our sources point out Democrats have also 00:21:09.029 --> 00:21:11.490 chipped away at it. Many on the left have been 00:21:11.490 --> 00:21:14.490 pushing the Fed to take on mandates beyond just 00:21:14.490 --> 00:21:17.019 inflation and employment. things like fighting 00:21:17.019 --> 00:21:19.220 climate change or addressing social injustice. 00:21:19.940 --> 00:21:23.299 That also arguably erodes its traditional independence. 00:21:23.660 --> 00:21:26.839 OK, so legally, can the president just fire the 00:21:26.839 --> 00:21:31.470 Fed chair? Powell's term runs until 2026. Technically, 00:21:31.750 --> 00:21:34.170 the law says Fed board members can only be removed 00:21:34.170 --> 00:21:37.089 for cause during their 14 -year terms, but... 00:21:37.089 --> 00:21:39.089 Trump has fired lots of officials with similar 00:21:39.089 --> 00:21:41.549 protections before. Exactly. Our sources point 00:21:41.549 --> 00:21:44.170 out he's removed dozens of top people from agencies 00:21:44.170 --> 00:21:47.150 where the law supposedly protected them. So could 00:21:47.150 --> 00:21:50.859 he fire Powell before May 2026? Maybe. He can 00:21:50.859 --> 00:21:54.000 try to invent some fictitious emergency as justification. 00:21:54.279 --> 00:21:56.259 Or find other ways to sideline him. Right. He 00:21:56.259 --> 00:21:58.160 could try to emasculate Powell by appointing 00:21:58.160 --> 00:22:00.279 a loyalist as a shadow chairman, someone waiting 00:22:00.279 --> 00:22:02.140 in the wings, constantly pushing for rate cuts, 00:22:02.319 --> 00:22:05.000 undermining Powell's authority. Apparently, a 00:22:05.000 --> 00:22:07.799 team of Trump loyalists even drafted a secret 00:22:07.799 --> 00:22:11.079 10 page memo before the election outlining ways 00:22:11.079 --> 00:22:13.779 to break any resistance within the Fed. A secret 00:22:13.779 --> 00:22:17.619 plan. OK, this raises the crucial question. If 00:22:17.619 --> 00:22:20.160 Trump does manage to capture the Fed, bring it 00:22:20.160 --> 00:22:22.259 under his control. Will it actually give him 00:22:22.259 --> 00:22:24.660 the economic results he wants? That's the million 00:22:24.660 --> 00:22:27.000 dollar or maybe trillion dollar question. There 00:22:27.000 --> 00:22:29.480 was a moment back in April when Trump was openly 00:22:29.480 --> 00:22:33.039 talking about firing Powell. Yeah. What happened? 00:22:33.380 --> 00:22:37.089 The bond market reacted badly. The bond vigilantes, 00:22:37.109 --> 00:22:39.930 as they're called, big investors who punish governments, 00:22:40.609 --> 00:22:43.029 they see as fiscally irresponsible by selling 00:22:43.029 --> 00:22:45.210 off their bonds. They pushed back? They did. 00:22:45.450 --> 00:22:47.670 Long -term interest rates shot up the rates that 00:22:47.670 --> 00:22:49.869 influence mortgages and corporate borrowing costs. 00:22:50.269 --> 00:22:52.730 It was called Trump's trust moment. Like lose 00:22:52.730 --> 00:22:55.690 trust in the UK whose unfunded tax cuts. tanked 00:22:55.690 --> 00:22:58.130 the British bond market. Exactly like that. It 00:22:58.130 --> 00:23:01.210 was a reminder that there's this global deep 00:23:01.210 --> 00:23:03.450 state of financial markets, as one source put 00:23:03.450 --> 00:23:05.809 it, that can actually be more powerful than even 00:23:05.809 --> 00:23:08.049 a U .S. president. Global capital, basically 00:23:08.049 --> 00:23:10.450 Trump Trump himself. But rates have calmed down 00:23:10.450 --> 00:23:12.869 since then. They have settled a bit. But the 00:23:12.869 --> 00:23:16.069 question our sources ask is, have investors just 00:23:16.069 --> 00:23:20.190 been lulled into complacency or is this just 00:23:20.190 --> 00:23:22.700 the calm before the next storm? What could trigger 00:23:22.700 --> 00:23:24.960 another storm? Well, think about the tariffs 00:23:24.960 --> 00:23:27.180 Trump is proposing. The price increases from 00:23:27.180 --> 00:23:30.640 those won't hit immediately. There's a lag. Importers 00:23:30.640 --> 00:23:32.900 built up big inventories before the tariffs took 00:23:32.900 --> 00:23:35.539 effect. It takes weeks for those higher priced 00:23:35.539 --> 00:23:37.660 goods to actually reach consumers. The tariff 00:23:37.660 --> 00:23:40.279 fog, as the source calls it. Yeah. The Fed is 00:23:40.279 --> 00:23:43.039 probably right to wait to hold off on cutting 00:23:43.039 --> 00:23:45.000 rates until they can see clearly through that 00:23:45.000 --> 00:23:47.779 fog. And they also need to figure out the economic 00:23:47.779 --> 00:23:50.440 impact, potentially stagflationary, meaning high 00:23:50.440 --> 00:23:52.940 inflation and slow growth of things like mass 00:23:52.940 --> 00:23:55.539 deportations. So forcing the Fed to cut rates 00:23:55.539 --> 00:23:58.160 now could be dangerous. Very dangerous, according 00:23:58.160 --> 00:24:00.859 to these sources. If Trump forces the Fed into, 00:24:00.859 --> 00:24:03.859 quote, Turkish style monetary expansion, meaning 00:24:03.859 --> 00:24:06.440 politically driven easing that ignores economic 00:24:06.440 --> 00:24:09.269 fundamentals, you could see a massive global 00:24:09.269 --> 00:24:12.049 exodus from U .S. debt markets. Foreign investors 00:24:12.049 --> 00:24:15.450 dumping U .S. bonds. Exactly. Trump's ultimate 00:24:15.450 --> 00:24:18.289 plan seems to be compelling the Fed to just buy 00:24:18.289 --> 00:24:21.009 up U .S. debt to keep interest rates artificially 00:24:21.009 --> 00:24:23.390 low, regardless of inflation or the autonomy. 00:24:23.650 --> 00:24:26.480 And the end game of that. Our sources warn that 00:24:26.480 --> 00:24:28.980 path leads straight to a collapse of the dollar 00:24:28.980 --> 00:24:31.559 and the path to perdition. They bring up the 00:24:31.559 --> 00:24:33.559 Rudy Dorn Bush rule, named after another famous 00:24:33.559 --> 00:24:36.759 economist. What's the rule? It says, crises take 00:24:36.759 --> 00:24:39.059 longer to arrive than you can possibly imagine, 00:24:39.460 --> 00:24:42.119 but when they do come, they happen faster than 00:24:42.119 --> 00:24:44.859 you can possibly imagine. Chilling thought. Wow. 00:24:45.119 --> 00:24:46.980 What a journey we've taken through all these 00:24:46.980 --> 00:24:49.200 interconnected issues. We've really seen how 00:24:49.200 --> 00:24:51.880 one single budget bill can ripple through Senate 00:24:51.880 --> 00:24:54.660 politics, blow up the national debt, and then 00:24:54.660 --> 00:24:57.180 directly impact the independence or lack thereof 00:24:57.180 --> 00:25:00.059 of the Federal Reserve. And all of that is happening 00:25:00.059 --> 00:25:02.440 while these legal strategies are evolving, blurring 00:25:02.440 --> 00:25:04.480 those lines between personal gain, political 00:25:04.480 --> 00:25:09.240 power, and institutional norms. We really hope 00:25:09.240 --> 00:25:11.500 this deep dive gave you some of those aha moments 00:25:11.500 --> 00:25:14.539 and maybe a clearer, more nuanced view of these 00:25:14.539 --> 00:25:17.319 really pivotal events shaping our world. Absolutely. 00:25:17.619 --> 00:25:19.420 And as you think about everything we've discussed. 00:25:19.680 --> 00:25:22.339 Maybe mull over this question. We've seen the 00:25:22.339 --> 00:25:24.380 history, right? Presidents have influenced the 00:25:24.380 --> 00:25:26.859 Fed before. We see these legal pressure tactics 00:25:26.859 --> 00:25:30.160 becoming more assertive. So if these trends collide, 00:25:30.420 --> 00:25:32.900 more political control over the Fed combined 00:25:32.900 --> 00:25:36.380 with aggressive legal maneuvering, how might 00:25:36.380 --> 00:25:38.700 that fundamentally redefine the balance of power, 00:25:38.960 --> 00:25:41.099 not just in American government, but in the global 00:25:41.099 --> 00:25:43.339 economy in the years ahead? Definitely something 00:25:43.339 --> 00:25:44.819 to think about. Thank you so much for joining 00:25:44.819 --> 00:25:47.910 us for this deep dive. Stay curious. and keep 00:25:47.910 --> 00:25:49.349 seeking those deeper insights.