WEBVTT 00:00:00.000 --> 00:00:02.960 Welcome to the deep dive. If your head is spinning 00:00:02.960 --> 00:00:05.580 from the sheer volume of political news lately, 00:00:06.040 --> 00:00:09.519 you know, high court decisions, legislative battles 00:00:09.519 --> 00:00:11.820 dragging on, those little hints from early elections, 00:00:12.039 --> 00:00:14.460 well, you're definitely in the right place. Our 00:00:14.460 --> 00:00:16.359 mission today is really to cut through all that 00:00:16.359 --> 00:00:18.600 noise. We're going to take a deep dive into some 00:00:18.600 --> 00:00:20.899 key developments from recent electoral vote news, 00:00:21.379 --> 00:00:23.359 pull out the most important bits, maybe some 00:00:23.359 --> 00:00:25.780 surprising facts, just to help you get a solid 00:00:25.780 --> 00:00:27.899 handle on these pretty complex topics. Yeah, 00:00:27.940 --> 00:00:29.699 and we've got quite a mix for you today. It's 00:00:29.699 --> 00:00:31.920 really a fascinating cross -section of American 00:00:31.920 --> 00:00:35.159 governance and electoral stuff. Our source is 00:00:35.200 --> 00:00:38.320 touch on everything from how the Supreme Court 00:00:38.320 --> 00:00:40.299 interprets the Constitution, which can be pretty 00:00:40.299 --> 00:00:44.100 nuanced, to the really messy reality of making 00:00:44.100 --> 00:00:46.759 laws in Congress, the sausage -making, as they 00:00:46.759 --> 00:00:49.159 say, and even those subtle signals coming out 00:00:49.159 --> 00:00:51.799 of special elections. Try and connect the dots, 00:00:52.200 --> 00:00:54.479 show how these things that seemed separate are 00:00:54.479 --> 00:00:57.700 actually pretty deeply intertwined. They paid 00:00:57.700 --> 00:01:00.140 a bigger picture, really, of where power sits 00:01:00.140 --> 00:01:03.320 in America today. OK, let's unpack this with 00:01:03.320 --> 00:01:06.209 a really big one first. the Supreme Court's ruling 00:01:06.209 --> 00:01:09.870 in Trump v. Casa, Inc. This just came down on 00:01:09.870 --> 00:01:13.219 June 28th. Essentially, the court said that district 00:01:13.219 --> 00:01:16.359 courts, generally speaking, don't have the authority 00:01:16.359 --> 00:01:19.519 to issue injunctions that apply beyond the specific 00:01:19.519 --> 00:01:22.260 parties in the lawsuit. They were quite clear, 00:01:22.519 --> 00:01:25.200 saying nationwide injunctions, quote, likely 00:01:25.200 --> 00:01:27.900 exceed the equitable authority that Congress 00:01:27.900 --> 00:01:30.480 has granted to federal courts. And it's really 00:01:30.480 --> 00:01:32.819 interesting how this case even got to the Supreme 00:01:32.819 --> 00:01:35.079 Court. It came up through what's called the shadow 00:01:35.079 --> 00:01:37.640 docket. Ah, the shadow docket. Yeah, it's this 00:01:37.640 --> 00:01:40.159 faster, less transparent way they handle emergencies. 00:01:40.040 --> 00:01:43.040 see appeals. Basically, three different district 00:01:43.040 --> 00:01:45.939 courts had already issued preliminary injunctions 00:01:45.939 --> 00:01:48.359 against the specific executive order from Donald 00:01:48.359 --> 00:01:51.879 Trump. That order basically tried to say that 00:01:51.879 --> 00:01:53.799 U .S.-born citizens aren't citizens anymore if 00:01:53.799 --> 00:01:55.640 their father wasn't a citizen and their mother 00:01:55.640 --> 00:01:58.120 entered the U .S. unlawfully or, you know, temporarily. 00:01:58.519 --> 00:02:00.840 Trying to get around the 14th Amendment. Exactly. 00:02:01.260 --> 00:02:03.079 Trying to put them outside the citizenship clause. 00:02:03.579 --> 00:02:05.040 So the lower courts looked at this and said, 00:02:05.159 --> 00:02:07.019 look, this CEO is probably unconstitutional. 00:02:07.200 --> 00:02:09.520 And they blocked it from applying to everyone 00:02:09.520 --> 00:02:11.520 and not just the people suing. And the Supreme 00:02:11.520 --> 00:02:14.199 Court's take on these broader injunctions, they 00:02:14.199 --> 00:02:17.520 didn't like them. They called them universal 00:02:17.520 --> 00:02:22.000 injunctions. And the tone was pretty negative 00:02:22.000 --> 00:02:25.159 pejorative. What we found in the source material 00:02:25.159 --> 00:02:28.300 is this observation that, OK, yeah, misusing 00:02:28.300 --> 00:02:31.319 these injunctions is a problem. They point to 00:02:31.319 --> 00:02:33.360 Judge Cax Marek's May for Pristone injunction 00:02:33.360 --> 00:02:36.099 as one example. Right. But the new thing, the 00:02:36.099 --> 00:02:38.319 source argues, isn't the injunction itself, it's 00:02:38.319 --> 00:02:41.159 this judge shopping. Judge shopping, yeah. That's 00:02:41.159 --> 00:02:43.800 when people filing lawsuits strategically pick 00:02:43.800 --> 00:02:46.180 a specific court, hoping to get a judge they 00:02:46.180 --> 00:02:49.219 think will give them a really broad, maybe overreaching 00:02:49.219 --> 00:02:51.939 order. And if you connect this back, the court 00:02:51.939 --> 00:02:54.960 was actually, well... Pretty savvy in how it 00:02:54.960 --> 00:02:57.340 handled this, it framed the question very narrowly. 00:02:57.780 --> 00:02:59.599 They focused only on whether district courts 00:02:59.599 --> 00:03:02.780 have the power to issue these nationwide preliminary 00:03:02.780 --> 00:03:06.219 injunctions. By doing that, the actual facts 00:03:06.219 --> 00:03:08.780 of Trump's executive order, the citizenship stuff, 00:03:09.599 --> 00:03:12.400 suddenly became, quote, irrelevant to their legal 00:03:12.400 --> 00:03:15.340 question. Ah, OK. So it let them, as the source 00:03:15.340 --> 00:03:18.439 puts it, kill two birds with one stone. They 00:03:18.439 --> 00:03:20.620 could talk about nationwide injunctions in this 00:03:20.620 --> 00:03:23.639 abstract way. And at the same time, give Trump 00:03:23.639 --> 00:03:27.180 what's seen as another win on his signature issue 00:03:27.180 --> 00:03:29.539 of ridding the country of as many undesirables 00:03:29.539 --> 00:03:32.500 as possible. So, OK, practically speaking, then, 00:03:32.500 --> 00:03:35.039 what does this mean right now? If injunctions 00:03:35.039 --> 00:03:38.620 only cover the specific people who sued, does 00:03:38.620 --> 00:03:41.180 that create this weird patchwork of protection? 00:03:41.400 --> 00:03:42.639 It could, yeah. It sounds like there's a lot 00:03:42.639 --> 00:03:44.400 of ambiguity, especially thinking about the states 00:03:44.400 --> 00:03:47.520 involved. Absolutely. The potential for, well, 00:03:47.689 --> 00:03:49.569 Chaos is pretty significant. You hit the nail 00:03:49.569 --> 00:03:52.229 on the head. Imagine only people living in states 00:03:52.229 --> 00:03:54.110 that actually joined the lawsuit are protected 00:03:54.110 --> 00:03:57.349 for now. So others could potentially lose their 00:03:57.349 --> 00:03:59.909 citizenship or maybe newborns could be denied 00:03:59.909 --> 00:04:02.330 social security numbers all while the case is 00:04:02.330 --> 00:04:04.509 still going on. It's an administrative nightmare 00:04:04.509 --> 00:04:07.639 obviously, but also a human one. And the analysis 00:04:07.639 --> 00:04:09.979 we looked at points out that class action lawsuits 00:04:09.979 --> 00:04:12.680 aren't really a great alternative here. They 00:04:12.680 --> 00:04:15.080 just take too long. Right. Plus, think about 00:04:15.080 --> 00:04:17.800 it. If the administration loses in a lower court, 00:04:18.399 --> 00:04:21.120 but the ruling only affects a few people, what's 00:04:21.120 --> 00:04:23.680 their incentive to appeal? They might just let 00:04:23.680 --> 00:04:26.759 it stand because the impact is so limited. Yeah. 00:04:26.899 --> 00:04:29.970 Why risk a bigger loss? Exactly. And this ruling, 00:04:29.970 --> 00:04:32.949 it takes effect in 30 days. It sort of builds 00:04:32.949 --> 00:04:35.470 on another order they previously stayed, one 00:04:35.470 --> 00:04:37.910 about deporting people to third countries without 00:04:37.910 --> 00:04:40.750 due process. It really does raise questions about 00:04:40.750 --> 00:04:43.560 the immediate impact on real lives. That is a 00:04:43.560 --> 00:04:45.680 terrifying prospect. It almost sounds like it's 00:04:45.680 --> 00:04:47.720 designed to make it harder to challenge these 00:04:47.720 --> 00:04:51.540 kinds of executive actions effectively. And this 00:04:51.540 --> 00:04:54.040 brings us straight to Justice Sotomayor's dissent, 00:04:54.139 --> 00:04:56.639 doesn't it? Which was incredibly strong. She 00:04:56.639 --> 00:04:59.459 really laid out a stark concern, saying the court 00:04:59.459 --> 00:05:02.980 basically kneecaps the judiciary's authority 00:05:02.980 --> 00:05:05.579 to stop the executive from enforcing even the 00:05:05.579 --> 00:05:07.740 most unconstitutional policies. Just takes away 00:05:07.740 --> 00:05:10.750 that power from federal courts. It was a powerful 00:05:10.750 --> 00:05:13.389 dissent. And then on the other side, you have 00:05:13.389 --> 00:05:16.790 Justice Kavanaugh's concurrence, which is also, 00:05:16.889 --> 00:05:20.170 frankly, eye -opening. It essentially, as the 00:05:20.170 --> 00:05:23.589 source reads it, advises the Trump faithful to 00:05:23.589 --> 00:05:25.829 bring more emergency applications to the Supreme 00:05:25.829 --> 00:05:28.730 Court to get lower court orders stayed. So use 00:05:28.730 --> 00:05:30.860 the shadow docket more. Pretty much. Our sources 00:05:30.860 --> 00:05:33.439 call this a stunning expansion of the court's 00:05:33.439 --> 00:05:36.240 involvement in cases at earlier stages, especially 00:05:36.240 --> 00:05:38.800 since it's happening through that less transparent 00:05:38.800 --> 00:05:41.699 shadow docket. It's seen by some observers as 00:05:41.699 --> 00:05:44.300 saying the quiet part out loud, like a clear 00:05:44.300 --> 00:05:46.180 signal the Supreme Court is ready to step in 00:05:46.180 --> 00:05:49.139 and, quote, bail him out. OK, so speaking of 00:05:49.139 --> 00:05:51.540 institutions and power, maybe using it, maybe 00:05:51.540 --> 00:05:54.899 giving it away, let's shift focus now to Capitol 00:05:54.899 --> 00:05:58.230 Hill. Congress. The legislative gears are definitely 00:05:58.230 --> 00:06:00.850 grinding, especially with this huge mega bill, 00:06:01.089 --> 00:06:03.329 or sometimes called the mega bill. The Senate 00:06:03.329 --> 00:06:05.509 just voted to advance it late on a Saturday night. 00:06:05.629 --> 00:06:08.750 It was almost entirely party line 5149. And that 00:06:08.750 --> 00:06:11.250 vote was held open for like three hours. Yeah, 00:06:11.269 --> 00:06:13.810 three hours. Classic sausage making, as our sources 00:06:13.810 --> 00:06:15.990 called it. You can just picture the horse trading, 00:06:16.389 --> 00:06:19.290 right? Senator Ron Johnson holding out until 00:06:19.290 --> 00:06:21.509 he got changes he wanted on Medicaid rules, then 00:06:21.509 --> 00:06:23.870 slipping his vote. Oh, absolutely. And the opposition 00:06:23.870 --> 00:06:26.610 was solid. All the Democrats voted no. Plus two 00:06:26.610 --> 00:06:29.699 Republicans ran Paul. who tends to vote against 00:06:29.699 --> 00:06:33.079 most big spending anyway, and Senator Tom Tillis 00:06:33.079 --> 00:06:36.019 from North Carolina. He was really worried, said 00:06:36.019 --> 00:06:38.819 his state stood to lose something like $38 billion 00:06:38.819 --> 00:06:41.660 in funding, and he was concerned about rural 00:06:41.660 --> 00:06:44.300 hospitals closing. So this whole legislative 00:06:44.300 --> 00:06:46.319 maneuvering, it's suddenly given a lot of power 00:06:46.319 --> 00:06:48.300 to a couple of other Republicans, hasn't it? 00:06:48.540 --> 00:06:51.480 Susan Collins from Maine, Lisa Murkowski from 00:06:51.480 --> 00:06:54.279 Alaska, especially if Paul and Tillis stick to 00:06:54.279 --> 00:06:56.399 their no votes. That's right. Collins, she's 00:06:56.399 --> 00:06:58.379 up for reelection next year, and her polling 00:06:58.379 --> 00:07:01.360 in Maine is... Well, pretty bad, like 14 percent 00:07:01.360 --> 00:07:04.220 favorable, 57 percent unfavorable. That's rough. 00:07:04.600 --> 00:07:06.980 Very rough. Especially when the Democratic governor 00:07:06.980 --> 00:07:09.699 there, Janet Mills, has a 51 percent approval 00:07:09.699 --> 00:07:12.480 rating. Yeah. And Murkowski, she isn't up next 00:07:12.480 --> 00:07:15.959 year, but she's been making noise about maybe 00:07:15.959 --> 00:07:18.459 caucusing with the Democrats. So you could definitely 00:07:18.459 --> 00:07:21.860 see them teaming up. threatening to vote no and 00:07:21.860 --> 00:07:24.620 using that leverage, as the source colorfully 00:07:24.620 --> 00:07:27.720 puts it, to arrange for their states to get more 00:07:27.720 --> 00:07:31.060 pork than Iowa produces in a decade. Probably 00:07:31.060 --> 00:07:33.300 right. And we saw some stalling tactics too, 00:07:33.420 --> 00:07:36.439 didn't we? Like Chuck Schumer forcing the whole 00:07:36.439 --> 00:07:40.240 940 page bill to be read aloud. Yes, that took 00:07:40.240 --> 00:07:43.209 16 hours. Schumer's point was, you know, Americans 00:07:43.209 --> 00:07:44.949 deserve to know what's actually in this thing. 00:07:45.009 --> 00:07:47.689 He framed it as tax breaks for billionaires while 00:07:47.689 --> 00:07:50.149 ordinary families lose health care and food assistance. 00:07:50.850 --> 00:07:53.050 We should expect a Voterama soon. That's where 00:07:53.050 --> 00:07:55.069 Democrats just offer amendment after amendment. 00:07:55.370 --> 00:07:57.470 They probably won't pass. But the goal is to 00:07:57.470 --> 00:07:59.790 highlight unpopular parts of the bill and try 00:07:59.790 --> 00:08:02.149 to sway public opinion. So looking ahead, what 00:08:02.149 --> 00:08:03.970 happens with this bill? It still has to get through 00:08:03.970 --> 00:08:05.750 the House, right? They either have to just accept 00:08:05.750 --> 00:08:08.050 the Senate version. Which seems unlikely. Or 00:08:08.050 --> 00:08:10.149 it goes to a conference committee to hammer out 00:08:10.149 --> 00:08:12.170 a compromise between the House and Senate versions. 00:08:12.670 --> 00:08:15.529 And who sits on that committee is crucial. Absolutely. 00:08:15.569 --> 00:08:17.709 You get one Freedom Caucus member on there. They 00:08:17.709 --> 00:08:20.189 could potentially blow the whole thing up. Or 00:08:20.189 --> 00:08:22.750 if they keep him off, maybe the compromise still 00:08:22.750 --> 00:08:24.790 fails in the full House. And there are other 00:08:24.790 --> 00:08:27.470 sticking points like changes to the Salta cap 00:08:27.470 --> 00:08:29.629 potentially hurting moderate Republicans from 00:08:29.629 --> 00:08:32.289 places like New York and California. Right. But 00:08:32.289 --> 00:08:34.850 it's also worth pointing out as bad as this bill 00:08:34.850 --> 00:08:38.360 might seem. to opponents, our sources note it 00:08:38.360 --> 00:08:41.120 could have been even worse. How so? Well, the 00:08:41.120 --> 00:08:42.960 Senate parliamentarian did this thing called 00:08:42.960 --> 00:08:45.740 the birdbath. It's basically a check to make 00:08:45.740 --> 00:08:47.620 sure everything in the bill is strictly related 00:08:47.620 --> 00:08:49.480 to the budget because that's required for this 00:08:49.480 --> 00:08:52.000 kind of reconciliation process. And she stripped 00:08:52.000 --> 00:08:55.480 out quite a few provisions, things like certain 00:08:55.480 --> 00:08:58.399 Medicaid changes, a private school tax credit, 00:08:58.600 --> 00:09:01.179 a ban on gender affirming care, selling off federal 00:09:01.179 --> 00:09:04.220 lands, limits on food aid. Wow. And interestingly, 00:09:04.419 --> 00:09:06.320 connecting back to our earlier discussion, she 00:09:06.320 --> 00:09:08.860 also cut proposed limits on the power of federal 00:09:08.860 --> 00:09:11.399 courts to issue those nationwide injunctions. 00:09:11.679 --> 00:09:14.639 Ah, so that specific attempt to curb judicial 00:09:14.639 --> 00:09:17.720 power through legislation got axed. For now, 00:09:17.980 --> 00:09:20.799 yes. So the takeaway is the Sausage Grinder is 00:09:20.799 --> 00:09:23.460 working at full speed. It might take days, maybe 00:09:23.460 --> 00:09:25.960 even weeks, before we know what the final version 00:09:25.960 --> 00:09:28.139 of this bill actually looks like. It's really 00:09:28.139 --> 00:09:30.480 easy to get bored down in the details of, you 00:09:30.480 --> 00:09:33.279 know, one court ruling or one bill. But when 00:09:33.279 --> 00:09:35.259 you step back, one of the sources we looked at 00:09:35.259 --> 00:09:38.000 points to this larger, maybe even unsettling 00:09:38.000 --> 00:09:40.220 pattern. They're suggesting that what we're seeing 00:09:40.220 --> 00:09:43.519 isn't necessarily Trump just grabbing power aggressively, 00:09:43.519 --> 00:09:46.480 but maybe the other two branches, Congress and 00:09:46.480 --> 00:09:49.039 the judiciary, kind of just handing it to him, 00:09:49.159 --> 00:09:51.590 like on a golden platter. It's a really compelling 00:09:51.590 --> 00:09:54.429 observation, and frankly, a bit alarming when 00:09:54.429 --> 00:09:56.490 you think about it. Let's look at some examples 00:09:56.490 --> 00:09:59.429 the source gives. Tariffs, for instance. The 00:09:59.429 --> 00:10:01.870 Constitution, Article 1, Section 8, clearly gives 00:10:01.870 --> 00:10:04.330 Congress the power to lay and collect taxes, 00:10:04.549 --> 00:10:06.809 duties, impostions, excises. Right, the power 00:10:06.809 --> 00:10:09.970 of the purse. Exactly. But Congress didn't really 00:10:09.970 --> 00:10:13.629 assert that power to stop Trump's tariffs. Similarly, 00:10:14.169 --> 00:10:16.889 Congress has the power to declare war, but it 00:10:16.889 --> 00:10:19.190 wasn't really used to check or condemn actions 00:10:19.190 --> 00:10:23.120 regarding Iran. Emergency powers. Congress never 00:10:23.120 --> 00:10:25.399 really clarified what counts as an invasion, 00:10:25.940 --> 00:10:28.159 which basically lets the president declare almost 00:10:28.159 --> 00:10:30.460 anything in emergency. Seating power there, too. 00:10:30.559 --> 00:10:33.019 Yeah. And even states powers seem to have been 00:10:33.019 --> 00:10:36.059 given away. Congress didn't clarify who controls 00:10:36.059 --> 00:10:38.220 the National Guard in certain situations, even 00:10:38.220 --> 00:10:40.559 though it's normally under state command. And 00:10:40.559 --> 00:10:43.600 then maybe the starkest example is back to the 00:10:43.600 --> 00:10:47.000 Supreme Court and birthright citizenship. The 00:10:47.000 --> 00:10:50.100 source argues the court caved. Instead of just 00:10:50.100 --> 00:10:52.259 striking down the executive order as obviously 00:10:52.259 --> 00:10:54.159 unconstitutional right instead of doing that 00:10:54.159 --> 00:10:56.340 They essentially said courts can't fully enforce 00:10:56.340 --> 00:10:59.279 the Constitution Against the executive in this 00:10:59.279 --> 00:11:02.139 way effectively ceding its power to the executive 00:11:02.139 --> 00:11:06.200 branch voluntarily The source feels very strongly 00:11:06.200 --> 00:11:07.919 here saying the court could have just struck 00:11:07.919 --> 00:11:11.159 down the EO 9d With a really sharp opinion saying 00:11:11.159 --> 00:11:14.340 look we the Supreme Court decide what the Constitution 00:11:14.340 --> 00:11:17.370 means not the president That is a pretty damning 00:11:17.370 --> 00:11:20.149 assessment, this idea of a paucity of profiles 00:11:20.149 --> 00:11:23.809 and courage, as the source puts it. But, I mean, 00:11:23.929 --> 00:11:27.169 is it really voluntary seeding or could there 00:11:27.169 --> 00:11:29.389 be some strategy behind it? Maybe the other branches 00:11:29.389 --> 00:11:31.970 are just choosing battles, avoiding direct fights 00:11:31.970 --> 00:11:34.190 for political reasons. That's a fair question. 00:11:34.490 --> 00:11:37.440 Is it strategy or abdication? Either way, the 00:11:37.440 --> 00:11:39.820 picture painted is one where maybe this expansion 00:11:39.820 --> 00:11:41.720 of presidential power didn't just happen because 00:11:41.720 --> 00:11:44.100 the executive was aggressive, but because the 00:11:44.100 --> 00:11:45.980 other branches didn't push back hard enough, 00:11:45.980 --> 00:11:49.460 they sort of let it happen. And the source makes 00:11:49.460 --> 00:11:51.940 this provocative point that Republicans may be 00:11:51.940 --> 00:11:54.559 expecting, in the source's words, a 1 ,000 -year 00:11:54.559 --> 00:11:57.679 rife, aren't thinking about what happens if the 00:11:57.679 --> 00:12:00.419 other party gets control and uses these newly 00:12:00.419 --> 00:12:03.539 expanded executive powers. It's a risk. Right. 00:12:03.720 --> 00:12:05.360 Setting precedents that could be used against 00:12:05.360 --> 00:12:07.669 you later. seems to be overlooked in the heat 00:12:07.669 --> 00:12:10.389 of the moment. OK, so from the big picture power 00:12:10.389 --> 00:12:13.029 dynamics in Washington, let's shift now and try 00:12:13.029 --> 00:12:16.830 to read the electoral tea leaves a bit. What 00:12:16.830 --> 00:12:19.690 are the early signs telling us about future elections? 00:12:20.350 --> 00:12:23.740 First up. Tom Tillis, his surprise retirement 00:12:23.740 --> 00:12:26.700 announcement for 2026. This came even while Trump 00:12:26.700 --> 00:12:29.600 was, as the source said, pummeling him over his 00:12:29.600 --> 00:12:31.899 vote against the MAGA bill. Yeah, that was unexpected. 00:12:32.620 --> 00:12:34.419 And the consequences are pretty significant. 00:12:34.539 --> 00:12:37.139 First, now that he can't be primaried by a Trump 00:12:37.139 --> 00:12:40.299 -backed challenger, he's basically free to vote 00:12:40.299 --> 00:12:42.759 based on what his constituents want. Trump doesn't 00:12:42.759 --> 00:12:44.860 have much leverage over him anymore. Interesting. 00:12:45.000 --> 00:12:47.059 But maybe more importantly. Holding that North 00:12:47.059 --> 00:12:49.879 Carolina Senate seat in 2026 just got a lot harder 00:12:49.879 --> 00:12:52.820 for Republicans. It's now an open seat. And former 00:12:52.820 --> 00:12:55.399 Governor Roy Cooper, the Democrat, might jump 00:12:55.399 --> 00:12:57.820 in. He's been playing it cool, but yeah. Winning 00:12:57.820 --> 00:13:00.360 an open seat in a swing state like North Carolina, 00:13:00.360 --> 00:13:03.059 that looks much more doable now. Cooper's a seasoned 00:13:03.059 --> 00:13:04.919 politician. He knows the kind of money that would 00:13:04.919 --> 00:13:07.440 pour in. The source says finance will not be 00:13:07.440 --> 00:13:09.919 a problem. And for the Republicans? Well, the 00:13:09.919 --> 00:13:12.100 primary field is wide open now. That could mean 00:13:12.100 --> 00:13:15.059 a big messy primary and potentially what they 00:13:15.059 --> 00:13:17.860 call a candidate quality problem if maybe the 00:13:17.860 --> 00:13:20.220 Trumpiest, most extreme candidate wins the nomination. 00:13:20.299 --> 00:13:22.700 That can be tough in a general election. Right. 00:13:22.960 --> 00:13:25.340 And speaking of potentially tough Senate races 00:13:25.340 --> 00:13:27.419 for Republicans, let's look at Susan Collins 00:13:27.419 --> 00:13:31.039 again in Maine. Her unpopularity is really stark. 00:13:31.080 --> 00:13:34.070 He really is. That new polling. Only 14 percent 00:13:34.070 --> 00:13:37.330 favorable, 57 percent unfavorable. And Governor 00:13:37.330 --> 00:13:40.210 Janet Mills, the Democrat, sitting at 51 percent 00:13:40.210 --> 00:13:42.950 approval, Mills is term limited as governor. 00:13:43.470 --> 00:13:45.389 She hasn't said she'll run against Collins. But 00:13:45.389 --> 00:13:47.169 with numbers like that, you got to think Democrats 00:13:47.169 --> 00:13:49.610 will move heaven and earth to try and recruit 00:13:49.610 --> 00:13:52.070 her. That looks like a prime pickup opportunity. 00:13:52.509 --> 00:13:55.309 Definitely one to watch. Now, on a slightly different 00:13:55.309 --> 00:13:57.809 front, but still looking ahead, consider Governor 00:13:57.809 --> 00:14:00.629 Gavin Newsom in California. Yes, the lawsuit 00:14:00.629 --> 00:14:04.149 against Fox News. Exactly. Suing them for $787 00:14:04.149 --> 00:14:07.710 million, claiming defamation by Jesse Waters. 00:14:08.210 --> 00:14:10.570 This looks like a very clear signal he's gearing 00:14:10.570 --> 00:14:13.149 up for a 2028 presidential run. And he's pretty 00:14:13.149 --> 00:14:15.450 open about the strategy, right? Oh, yeah. He's 00:14:15.450 --> 00:14:17.990 basically saying he's using a tactic Trump has 00:14:17.990 --> 00:14:20.929 used, and he even tied the dollar amount directly 00:14:20.929 --> 00:14:23.950 to the Dominion settlement, the $787 .5 million. 00:14:24.529 --> 00:14:27.350 He said, quote, if Fox News wants to lie to the 00:14:27.350 --> 00:14:29.730 American people on Donald Trump's behalf, it 00:14:29.730 --> 00:14:32.769 should face consequences. Now, legally, it's 00:14:32.769 --> 00:14:35.049 tough for him, isn't it? As a public figure, 00:14:35.110 --> 00:14:38.090 he has to prove actual malice. That's a high 00:14:38.090 --> 00:14:40.490 bar. Show they knew it was false or just didn't 00:14:40.490 --> 00:14:42.450 care if it was true or false. Much higher bar 00:14:42.450 --> 00:14:45.509 than Dominion faced, yes. But the source suggests 00:14:45.509 --> 00:14:47.490 his real goal might not be winning in a court 00:14:47.490 --> 00:14:50.470 of law. It's the court of public opinion. Exactly. 00:14:50.909 --> 00:14:52.850 Rallying Democrats, getting his name out there, 00:14:52.950 --> 00:14:55.289 taking the fight to Fox News. We should probably 00:14:55.289 --> 00:14:57.809 expect, as the source says, more stunts like 00:14:57.809 --> 00:15:00.919 this from Newsom leading up to 2028. OK, let's 00:15:00.919 --> 00:15:02.820 talk special elections. We're seeing this interesting 00:15:02.820 --> 00:15:04.980 dynamic play out sometimes. Youth versus the 00:15:04.980 --> 00:15:08.399 establishment. Yeah, popping up. Now, Zoran Alamdani's 00:15:08.399 --> 00:15:10.860 win in the NYC mayoral primary had some unique 00:15:10.860 --> 00:15:13.399 local factors. Maybe not the best example. But 00:15:13.399 --> 00:15:15.639 Arizona's special election in AZ -07, that's 00:15:15.639 --> 00:15:18.360 coming up July 15th, looks like a clearer test 00:15:18.360 --> 00:15:20.899 case. Right. That's the seat that opened up after 00:15:20.899 --> 00:15:23.179 Representative Roel Grijalva passed away. It's 00:15:23.179 --> 00:15:26.379 a heavily Latino district, somewhat poor. And 00:15:26.379 --> 00:15:29.179 the candidates are really distinct. On the establishment 00:15:29.179 --> 00:15:32.279 side, you have Adelita Grijalva. She's 54, the 00:15:32.279 --> 00:15:34.759 former congressman's daughter. Lots of political 00:15:34.759 --> 00:15:37.360 experience. Tucson school board for years. Quima 00:15:37.360 --> 00:15:40.519 County Board of Supervisors. Though she had to 00:15:40.519 --> 00:15:43.080 resign because of a resigned run law. Seeing 00:15:43.080 --> 00:15:45.559 his very establishment, maybe even a nepo baby, 00:15:45.820 --> 00:15:48.159 as the source puts it. And then the youth candidate 00:15:48.159 --> 00:15:51.740 is Deja Fox. She's only 25, Philippine -American, 00:15:51.960 --> 00:15:53.879 grew up in public housing, first in her family 00:15:53.879 --> 00:15:56.419 to go to college, went to Columbia. She's a political 00:15:56.419 --> 00:15:59.299 activist, even spoke at the 2024 Democratic Convention 00:15:59.299 --> 00:16:02.299 about abortion rights. A real Gen Z candidate 00:16:02.299 --> 00:16:05.360 in what is a relatively young state. So the question 00:16:05.360 --> 00:16:07.460 this race poses really for you, the listener, 00:16:07.580 --> 00:16:10.120 to think about is, will generational change do 00:16:10.120 --> 00:16:13.590 the job when the older candidate is a Fairly 00:16:13.590 --> 00:16:16.809 standard politician with no obvious flaws. Yeah, 00:16:16.889 --> 00:16:19.330 it's not like Rihalva has major scandals or anything. 00:16:19.730 --> 00:16:22.049 Exactly. And since it's a D plus 13 district, 00:16:22.490 --> 00:16:24.450 whoever wins this Democratic primary is almost 00:16:24.450 --> 00:16:26.909 certainly going to Congress. It's different from, 00:16:26.909 --> 00:16:29.370 say, the VA 11 primary where James Walkinshaw 00:16:29.370 --> 00:16:33.490 won. He's 42, not exactly ancient. And that race 00:16:33.490 --> 00:16:35.649 seemed more about his experience as the previous 00:16:35.649 --> 00:16:37.850 congressman's chief of staff, less about just 00:16:37.850 --> 00:16:40.419 age. OK, so let's zoom out again and really try 00:16:40.419 --> 00:16:43.100 to read those tea leaves from all the special 00:16:43.100 --> 00:16:45.299 election data we've seen this year, thinking 00:16:45.299 --> 00:16:48.759 about the 2026 midterms. Special elections, they're 00:16:48.759 --> 00:16:51.200 always unique, special, as the name implies. 00:16:51.419 --> 00:16:53.340 But historically, they often do give us some 00:16:53.340 --> 00:16:55.740 clues about broader trends. They can, yeah. And 00:16:55.740 --> 00:16:57.460 the data so far this cycle is pretty compelling. 00:16:57.960 --> 00:17:00.779 Since January 20th, 2025, there have been 31 00:17:00.779 --> 00:17:04.140 special elections, and in 27 of them, Democrats 00:17:04.140 --> 00:17:06.700 performed better than Joe Biden. Well, technically 00:17:06.700 --> 00:17:09.299 Kamala Harris did in those same districts in 00:17:09.299 --> 00:17:12.440 2024. 27 out of 31. That's a strong trend. It 00:17:12.440 --> 00:17:15.079 is. And it holds across different kinds of places. 00:17:15.339 --> 00:17:18.099 In Trumpy states, Democrats ran ahead of Harris's 00:17:18.099 --> 00:17:21.099 2024 numbers. Same in closer states, even in 00:17:21.099 --> 00:17:24.259 solid blue states. There was that wild New York 00:17:24.259 --> 00:17:27.079 State Senate race example. Yeah, the 22nd District 00:17:27.079 --> 00:17:30.019 moved something like 94 points towards the Democrats, 00:17:30.660 --> 00:17:32.900 apparently due to shifts in Orthodox Jewish voting 00:17:32.900 --> 00:17:36.079 patterns. And even in a couple of Florida House 00:17:36.079 --> 00:17:38.960 races that Republicans won, the Democrats still 00:17:38.960 --> 00:17:41.769 did much better than Harris did in 2024. OK, 00:17:41.829 --> 00:17:43.990 but how predictive is this, really? I remember 00:17:43.990 --> 00:17:46.369 hearing special elections weren't great predictors 00:17:46.369 --> 00:17:49.470 for 2024 itself. That's true. Historically, they 00:17:49.470 --> 00:17:52.910 were pretty good for 2018, 2020, 2022 House results. 00:17:53.529 --> 00:17:56.569 But 2024 was different. Our sources point to 00:17:56.569 --> 00:18:00.049 unusual factors. Biden dropping out late, Trump 00:18:00.049 --> 00:18:02.250 maybe turning out low propensity voters who don't 00:18:02.250 --> 00:18:05.410 usually show up for specials. So 2024 might have 00:18:05.410 --> 00:18:07.779 been the exception, not the rule. It's possible. 00:18:08.180 --> 00:18:09.900 So looking at this year's specials with that 00:18:09.900 --> 00:18:12.799 D plus 13 on average swing towards Democrats 00:18:12.799 --> 00:18:15.799 compared to 2024, plus what the sources see is 00:18:15.799 --> 00:18:17.839 the increasing unpopularity of the Republicans. 00:18:17.940 --> 00:18:20.839 Well, it gives Democrats some reason for optimism 00:18:20.839 --> 00:18:23.400 in 2026. One more potential indicator. Yeah, 00:18:23.400 --> 00:18:25.920 one more, though it's still early days. The Virginia 00:18:25.920 --> 00:18:28.799 gubernatorial election this November. Historically, 00:18:28.799 --> 00:18:31.099 it's got a decent track record, maybe a 70 percent 00:18:31.099 --> 00:18:33.460 prediction rate for the following midterms. And 00:18:33.460 --> 00:18:35.859 the early polling there. A recent Roanoke College 00:18:35.859 --> 00:18:39.019 poll. shows Representative Abigail Spanberger, 00:18:39.500 --> 00:18:42.039 the Democrat, leading Lieutenant Governor Winsome 00:18:42.039 --> 00:18:44.720 Earl Sears, the Republican, pretty comfortably 00:18:44.720 --> 00:18:48.380 43 to 26 percent. So Spanberger looks like the 00:18:48.380 --> 00:18:51.819 favorite right now. She does. And if she wins, 00:18:52.079 --> 00:18:54.180 particularly if she wins comfortably, that would 00:18:54.180 --> 00:18:58.279 be seen as another hint about 2026. So we've 00:18:58.279 --> 00:19:01.000 covered a lot of ground today. We took that deep 00:19:01.000 --> 00:19:04.079 dive into, well, All these interconnected stories, 00:19:04.259 --> 00:19:06.900 the judiciary's power, Congress being gridlocked, 00:19:06.900 --> 00:19:09.220 executive actions, those little signals from 00:19:09.220 --> 00:19:11.799 voters in special elections, it's really clear 00:19:11.799 --> 00:19:13.960 how they all weave together to shape the political 00:19:13.960 --> 00:19:16.079 landscape. Yeah, and understanding these different 00:19:16.079 --> 00:19:18.160 threads, how they connect, really lets you see 00:19:18.160 --> 00:19:20.859 the bigger picture beyond just daily headlines, 00:19:21.000 --> 00:19:22.599 doesn't it? You know, how the Supreme Court sees 00:19:22.599 --> 00:19:24.880 its own power, how Congress uses its authority 00:19:24.880 --> 00:19:27.700 or maybe gives it away, and how these early election 00:19:27.700 --> 00:19:29.940 results might hint at what's coming next. It 00:19:29.940 --> 00:19:31.740 all adds up to a much richer understanding of 00:19:31.740 --> 00:19:33.769 America. governance right now. It really does 00:19:33.769 --> 00:19:35.950 and this raises I think a really important question 00:19:35.950 --> 00:19:40.079 to leave you with. What are the long -term consequences 00:19:40.079 --> 00:19:42.759 for the actual balance of power in the US when 00:19:42.759 --> 00:19:45.420 one branch, the executive, seems to be growing 00:19:45.420 --> 00:19:47.559 stronger not just because it's being aggressive, 00:19:47.599 --> 00:19:49.500 but maybe because the other branches, Congress 00:19:49.500 --> 00:19:52.240 and the judiciary, are voluntarily ceding their 00:19:52.240 --> 00:19:54.640 own authority? As we see these trends potentially 00:19:54.640 --> 00:19:56.880 continue and what role does public awareness, 00:19:56.960 --> 00:20:00.019 public engagement play in maybe influencing these 00:20:00.019 --> 00:20:02.359 big constitutional shifts, especially as we're 00:20:02.359 --> 00:20:04.420 already looking ahead to the really crucial elections 00:20:04.420 --> 00:20:07.259 in 2026 and 2028? things to think about.